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Chris Busby

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I am an independent researcher in the area of public health focusing on ionizing radiation (particularly internal exposures), radioactivity in the environment, and many other dangers to human health. I was the Green Party speaker on Technology and Science for many years. I am a chemical physicist, biologist and epidemiologist and have published in a wide range of areas, including cell biology and living systems.
Phone: +371 29419511, +44 7989428833
Address: Environmental Research SIA,
1117 Latvian Academy of Sciences
Akademi Laukas
Riga LV-1050
Latvia

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School of the Art Institute of Chicago

Tarbiat Modares University

Jayjit Majumdar

University of Kalyani

Tanta University

Hernan Chaimovich

Universidade de São Paulo

Abdel_Tawab Mossa

National Research Centre

Dr. Roxana Rata (Panait)

CERN

Christopher Larbie

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

University of Chicago

Raghavendra Holla

Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham

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Papers by Chris Busby

Cancer mortality in the USA and atmospheric nuclear weapons test fallout ratio. Identifying the principal origin of the global cancer epidemic

Recent advances in epidemiological analysis of the effects of radioactive contamination have rais... more Recent advances in epidemiological analysis of the effects of radioactive contamination have raised questions over the security of current radiation risk models. One outstanding question relates to the effects of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and the fallout which peaked in 1959-63. Effects on cancer, a late genetic disease, are investigated here by employing a metric R which divides the rate in high fallout and low fallout States of the USA. An allocation of the two groups is based on rainfall and supported by measurements of Strontium-90 in baby teeth.

The wings of death: nuclear pollution and human health

In this book, the author argues that ionizing radiation (from nuclear fallout and radioactive was... more

Chernobyl Health Effect

Excess of other cancers in Wales

BMJ, 1994

Prostatic cancer and radionuclides Evidence implicates zinc-65 EDrroR,-In their paper on prostati... more Prostatic cancer and radionuclides Evidence implicates zinc-65 EDrroR,-In their paper on prostatic cancer in employees of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Cleone Rooney and colleagues raise the possibility of localisation of zinc-65 in the prostate being an aetiological factor but state that "there are no reliable data on 65Zn uptake by the human prostate."' Prout et al showed in 1959 that 65Zn localises avidly in the prostate in human males, and especially in benign adenomas.2 In 1956 Daniel et al showed that the ratio of the 65Zn concentration in normal prostates to that in blood was over 2-5:1; one patient had a ratio of 27:1.3 The consensus of both groups was that neoplastic prostates concentrated less zinc. The uptake of zinc by the human prostate is so high that it is technically possible to image the prostate with ""9Zn." (Unfortunately, there are no isotopes of zinc suitable for routine imaging, so this approach has not found a place in routine nuclear medicine.) This avid uptake of zinc by the prostate must increase the probability of 65Zn being a relevant factor in carcinogenesis in this population.

Did Chemical Exposures of Servicemen at Porton Down Result in Subsequent Effects on their Health? The 2005 Porton Down Veterans Support Group Case Control Study. First Report

Green Audit paper 2006/2, 2006

The Porton Down Veterans Support Group mailed 505 questionnaires to members in order to investiga... more The Porton Down Veterans Support Group mailed 505 questionnaires to members in order to investigate any possible connection between exposures at Porton Down and subsequent ill health. Members were asked to obtain controls of the same age. There were 261 questionnaires which were returned by veterans together with 123 control questionnaires. This enabled us to conduct a case-control analysis of health in the veterans compared with the controls. For some conditions like cancer, birth outcomes or health in the children we were able to compare the rates in the veterans with national data. The mean age of the 261 veterans who responded was 69.0 (SD = 7.1) and of the 123 controls was 67.6 (SD = 6.1). Most of the experiments were conducted between 1950 and 1960 although some had been carried out as recently as 1989. Cases reported being exposed to Mustard Gas, Sarin and other nerve gases, CS gases and riot agents, to mind altering substances like LSD and to a range of other toxic substances and unknown compounds. Respondents recorded the effects on them at the time and in the period after. The experiments and the immediate effects were bizarre, frightening and often clearly involved major clinical symptoms. Some volunteers were blinded, others woke up in hospital, some took considerable time to recover. We examined cancer in the cases relative to the controls and national data. Levels of cancer in the controls were lower than expected on the basis of national rates. For all malignancy combined, using cancer diagnosed in the period 2001 to 2005 Standardised Incidence Ratio (SIR) based on England and Wales 2002 data was 1.02 in the veterans, equal to the expected level. Significantly high levels of prostate cancer were reported by the veterans (15 cases, SIR 2.6, CI 1.57<RR<4.26; p = 0.0001) and also malignant melanoma (3 cases, SIR = 8.0, CI 1.93<RR<26.8; p = 0.008). The melanoma excess is interesting as it is a biologically plausible cancer following skin exposure to a carcinogen like mustard gas. Comparison of cases with controls for current treatment for ongoing conditions showed a significant excess of heart disorders (OR 2.37; CI 1.17-1.89, p= 0.01), arrhythmias (OR 6.7; p = 0.04), respiratory disorders (OR 10.3, 1.44-207, p = 0.01) and diabetes (OR = 4.7 (1.01-7.2; p = 0.03). Cases showed significantly higher levels of many other conditions and illnesses than controls but for some of these e.g. strokes, comparisons with the Welsh Health Survey showed that the levels were not significantly different from those that might be expected in the age group. We examined miscarriages, infertility and child health in the 549 children born to the veterans and the 272 children born to the controls. There were significantly more miscarriages (OR = 2.23, 1.07<OR<4.75, p = 0.02) in the veterans and significantly more infertility (OR infinity based on 28 vs. 0). In addition, the children were significantly more ill with 4.39 times the reported health problems (OR 4.35; 2.08<OR<9.43, p = 0.00001). There were twice the number of child deaths (OR = 1.86 on 38 deaths), mental health problems (11 vs.0), epilepsy (3 vs. 0) and brain damage (5 vs. 0). There was an astonishingly high rate of child cancer reported in the offspring of the veterans including two child leukemias. This represented and SIR of 10.2 for leukaemia 0-14 (based on 2 cases, p = 0.018) and 5.3 for all cancers 0-14 (based on 4 cases; p = 0.005). Amazingly, there was one child leukaemia reported in the controls, the only child cancer in the controls. Overall, the infertility, the miscarriages and the health of the children of the veterans and their cancer rate, is consistent with genetic damage in the parents.

The cancer incidence temporality index: An index to show temporal changes in the age of onset of overall and specific cancer (England and Wales, 1971e1999

Biomedicine and pharmacotherapy, 2007

The theory that increasing cancer incidence rates in developed countries are primarily the conseq... more The theory that increasing cancer incidence rates in developed countries are primarily the consequence of an expanding ageing population and
improved diagnostic testing is widely held. In the United Kingdom the proportion of people aged 50 and over has increased by 45% since 1951 and
this proportion is set to increase by a further 36% by the year 2031, so the United Kingdom does indeed have an expanding ageing population.
However, the increase in cancer incidence affects people across the whole age spectrum. To test the hypothesis that the age of onset of cancer
(overall and specific) in England and Wales is decreasing over time we have developed The Cancer Incidence Temporality Index (CITI), which
gives a crude measurement of the portion of the population, in which cancer incidence is rising fastest over time: I ¼ (POa/PEa)/(POa/PEa),
where I is the CITI value, O is the observed number of cases and E is the expected number of cases; ‘a’ and ‘b’ refer to separate summation ranges
for younger and older age groups. Population data and cancer incidence data in England andWales, 1971e1999 were obtained from the UK Office
for National Statistics. The trends in CITI values have been shown graphically for cancer overall and for specific tumour sites. The impact of
diagnostic testing is also addressed. The results of this study suggest that the average age of onset of prostate, breast and cervical cancer is temporally
decreasing. The study also suggests that for cancer overall the trend for the age of onset of cancer in males has stabilised since 1990 and has
started to reverse in females from 1995 despite the expanding ageing population. A similar trend is observed for leukaemias. The CITI analysis for
colon cancer shows that the age of onset in both males and females is increasing over time. The trend for ovarian cancer is similar to that for colon
cancer. The CITI analysis for NHL in males is similar to that for colon cancer, however, in females the trend stabilised after 1990. The CITI may
aid prediction of changes in the age of onset of cancer and thus aid targeted aetiological research. In addition, we suggest the need for a mathematical
model, which may measure the changes in the age of onset of cancer in units of time.

The Hiroshima A-Bomb Black Rain and the Lifespan Study; A Resolution of the Enigma

Cancer Investigation, Sep 16, 2021

Abstract The Japanese Lifespan Study (LSS) of the A-Bomb survivors is the principal basis of the ... more Abstract The Japanese Lifespan Study (LSS) of the A-Bomb survivors is the principal basis of the current legal radiological framework. Evidence provided for the first time here shows that internal exposure to radiologically significant quantities of Uranium-234 contained in sub-micron particle rainout from the un-fissioned weapon warhead, the Black Rain, is a missing exposure in the LSS analysis. It is argued that this is responsible for a background excess cancer risk in all the LSS dose groups. This, together with epidemiological evidence based on unexposed controls falsifies the LSS cancer vs. dose regression coefficients for internal exposure.

High Cancer Risk in US Naval Personnel Serving in Nuclear Powered Ships

Cancer Investigation, Feb 25, 2020

The USA Defense Threat Reduction Agency provided data in 2014 on the health status, including can... more The USA Defense Threat Reduction Agency provided data in 2014 on the health status, including cancer, of the 4,843 sailors on the nuclear-powered United States Ship (USS) Ronald Reagan over the 2.55-year period from May 12, 2011 to Dec 31, 2013. Also provided were data on a matched control group of 65,269 US Navy personnel. Examination of the control population relative to the US national data gives a relative risk for all malignancies of RR ¼ 9.2 (95% CI 8.48 < 9.2 < 9.96). The result suggests a significant cancer risk associated with serving on a nuclear-powered ship, one which is not predicted by the science underlying current radiation protection legislation.

European Committee on Radiation Risk Comité Européen sur le Risque de l'Irradiation

Cancer in the offspring of radiation workers

BMJ, May 30, 1998

Editor-The levonorgestrel intrauterine system (Mirena), a useful addition to contraceptive choice... more Editor-The levonorgestrel intrauterine system (Mirena), a useful addition to contraceptive choice, is now approaching its third anniversary. In the United Kingdom the product licence for the levonorgestrel intrauterine system permits its use for three years. In all other countries where the system is marketed, however, its use is approved for five years. There is good evidence to support this longer duration, 1 and indeed the system seems to remain effective for as long as seven years. 2 We understand that Schering Healthcare has applied for a two year extension to its current licence, backed by their new data that relates to the new polymer that has been used since 1990. Many clinicians have asked us if they should conform strictly to the current product licence and replace each intrauterine system on the third anniversary of its insertion. We would strongly advise delaying reinsertion in this time, at least until the expected statement from the Medicines Control Agency. It is well known that the process of insertion of all intrauterine contraceptives causes problems (short term inconvenience and discomfort followed by new bleeding and pain or expulsion) and also real risks, 3 4 notably perforation and upper genital tract infection. These would be unacceptable if it emerges that reinsertions were not necessary. Users of the levonorgestrel intrauterine system can be reassured that good data are available to support its use for five years. From 15 May, and until any statement concerning a change in the licence, continuation beyond three years is legitimate, at the woman's choice, provided the established criteria for use by named patients are observed-that is, explaining that this is unlicensed use of a licensed product; highlighting the risks and benefits of the proposed non-intervention; obtaining and recording the woman's verbal consent in her case notes; and keeping a separate record of the woman's name and the nature of the unlicensed use. 5

Commentary on the Second Event Theory of Busby by A. A. Edwards and R. Cox

PubMed, 2000

Increases in Leukemia in Infants in Wales and Scotland following Chernobyl: Evidence for Errors in Statutory Risk Estimates

Energy & Environment, Mar 1, 2000

After the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986, rainfall precipitation caused measurable radi... more After the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986, rainfall precipitation caused measurable radioactive contamination of Wales and Scotland. Using risk models developed by themselves and by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, the UK National Radiological Protection Board advised that no measurable increase in leukemia was predicted at exposures which they estimated from measurements of contamination. However, cancer registry data from both the Wales and Scotland registries show a sharp increase in cases of infant leukemia age 0-1 in the eighteen month period January 1st 1987 to June 30th 1988. This period is that in which the birth cohort who were in utero in the exposure period following the fallout would be in the age group 0-1. Compared with an 'unexposed group' consisting of the period 1975-1986 the Wales exposed group had a relative risk (RR) of 4.4 (p = 0.004), the Scotland group a RR of 3.7 (p = .001) and the combined Wales and Scotland group an RR of 3.87 (p = .0001). A second unexposed group, those aged 0-1 in 1989-91 had no significant increased risk although after 1991 rates increased slightly. This finding supports earlier reports of infant leukemia effects in Greece, Germany and the U.S. following Chernobyl. The data cannot entirely distinguish between pre-conception or in utero effects but also reported here are increases in very low birth-weight births in Wales following Chernobyl, suggesting a genetic component to both effects. The existence of good quality leukemia and exposure data makes it possible to calculate an error in the presently accepted risk factors for radiation induced leukemia following this kind of exposure of about 100-fold or more. The possibility of errors of this magnitude in the contemporary risk estimates of ionizing radiation effects suggests that a more cautious approach should be exercised to policy decisions about nuclear power options.

2003 recommendations of the ECRR : the health effects of lonising radiation exposure at low doses for radiation protection purposes

Anomalous Health Effects of Uranium Exposure

The last ten years has seen increasing evidence that the element Uranium cannot be safely assesse... more The last ten years has seen increasing evidence that the element Uranium cannot be safely assessed by the conventional radiation risk model, that of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The author begins by discussing some philosophical issues which relate to the science which underpins the historical development of the understanding of risk from internal chronic and external acute exposures. These include the applicability of the averaging concept of “absorbed dose” to elements, like Uranium, which have chemical affinity for DNA. He continues by reviewing evidence that shows that Uranium, especially when absorbed through inhalation as a particulate, represents a serious genotoxic hazard, which shows itself as chromosome damage, heritable disease and cancer at very low conventional doses. Finally, he presents new evidence relating to the Secondary Photoelectron Effect whereby elements of high atomic number, e.g. Gold and Uranium, which have very high absorption cross sections for natural background photon radiations, concentrate such energy and re-emit it as photoelectrons into local tissue.

Child health and ionizing radiation: Science, Politics and European Law

Pediatric dimensions, 2017

Between 2000 and 2006 the European Union funded a pan-European group of epidemiologists, toxicolo... more Between 2000 and 2006 the European Union funded a pan-European group of epidemiologists, toxicologists and paediatricians, the Policy Information Network on Child Health and Environment (PINCHE) [1]. The purpose of the network was to examine all the literature on environmental contamination agents to provide evidencebased recommendations to the European Commission on how best to regulate exposures that had been shown or suspected to affect childrens' health. The need for this was apparent from the increasing incidence of a number of illnesses in children and young people like childhood cancer, leukemia, asthma and a range of other increasingly prevalent conditions. Additionally, one purpose was to recommend ways in which the Commission could set up agencies or committees to develop ways in which causal linkages between exposure and illnesses might obtain unbiased information. This workgroup was the Science-Policy interface, and I was the leader of this group. PINCHE reported in 2006 and its recommendations were published in the literature [2-4] are available on the web.

A Risk Coefficient for Radiation-Induced Dementia

Advances in Alzheimer's disease, 2018

The effect of ionising radiation exposure on dementia is approached by applying the causation mod... more The effect of ionising radiation exposure on dementia is approached by applying the causation models of John Stuart Mill and of Sir Austin Bradford Hill to mechanism and epidemiological evidence. Since ionizing radiation is known to kill brain cells in laboratory culture and to affect hippocampal neurogenesis in animal experiments at modest doses, it is reasonable to assume that exposure to radiation must affect neurological integrity and hence dementia rates in those who are exposed. There is persuasive evidence from the epidemiological studies of a large cohort of female nuclear workers that ionising radiation exposure is associated with significant low dose region dose-dependent increases in rates of dementia. Using results from these studies, the Probability of Causation approach (PC), conventionally employed for assessing cancer risk following radiation exposure, is extended to dementia to find a risk coefficient for all ages of 60 per Sievert cumulative exposure over the range 0-100 mSv. The finding suggests that natural background external exposures to ionizing radiation are partly responsible for the development of dementia in human populations. A simple general model for dementia is proposed.

Re-Thinking Biology—I. Maxwell’s Demon and the Spontaneous Origin of Life

Advances in Biological Chemistry, 2017

A hypothesis is advanced in which life began from a Darwinian selection among a diversification o... more A hypothesis is advanced in which life began from a Darwinian selection among a diversification of molecular species containing the phosphate moiety which broke the constraints implicit in the Second Law of Thermodynamics, discussed famously by Schrodinger, by obtaining energy from specific infrared frequencies located in the phosphorus-oxygen vibration at a frequency around 1000 cm −1. We propose the source of this energy was from the internal conversion of solar broadband energy by the phosphate mineral Apatite, present at the bottom of a primitive biogenesis pond. In this scenario, life is redefined as being hotter than its environment and as using its excess energy, supplied by infra-red conversion, to react with its molecular environment and pump itself up the "entropy slope" thereby; replication is through breakages of increasingly large phosphate containing biopolymers. The idea has implications for modern explanations of living systems.

The Secondary Photoelectron Effect: Gamma Ray Ionisation Enhancement in Tissues from High Atomic Number Elements

IntechOpen eBooks, Oct 2, 2019

The absorption of gamma rays is roughly proportional to the fifth power of the atomic number of a... more The absorption of gamma rays is roughly proportional to the fifth power of the atomic number of an element. This immediately raises the issue of tissue ionisation enhancement effects from photoelectron production by elements of high atomic number incorporated into living tissue. The issue was raised in the 1950s in relation to calcium in the bone but has received little attention since then. New results, derived from mathematical modelling carried out at the University of Ulster, of photoemission from nanoparticles of gold and uranium are presented. These show that significant ionisation enhancement effects can occur when incorporated particles of high atomic number are exposed to natural background gamma radiation, effects which increase sharply at the lower energy end of the spectrum, around 150 keV. The effects must also occur for molecular species. The general problem is discussed, with reference to the literature, and approximate enhancement factors are derived for the effect. The implications for the evolutionary selection of elements by life are explored.

Fundamental errors in official epidemiological studies of environmental pollution in Wales

Journal of Public Health, Jun 1, 2006

High Risks at Low Doses

Since a wise man may be wrong, or a hundred men, or several nations and since even human nature, ... more Since a wise man may be wrong, or a hundred men, or several nations and since even human nature, as we think, goes wrong for several centuries on this matter or that, how can we be certain that it occasionally stops going wrong and that in this century it is not mistaken Montaigne (1533-92): The Essays.

Cancer mortality in the USA and atmospheric nuclear weapons test fallout ratio. Identifying the principal origin of the global cancer epidemic

Recent advances in epidemiological analysis of the effects of radioactive contamination have rais... more Recent advances in epidemiological analysis of the effects of radioactive contamination have raised questions over the security of current radiation risk models. One outstanding question relates to the effects of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and the fallout which peaked in 1959-63. Effects on cancer, a late genetic disease, are investigated here by employing a metric R which divides the rate in high fallout and low fallout States of the USA. An allocation of the two groups is based on rainfall and supported by measurements of Strontium-90 in baby teeth.

The wings of death: nuclear pollution and human health

In this book, the author argues that ionizing radiation (from nuclear fallout and radioactive was... more

Chernobyl Health Effect

Excess of other cancers in Wales

BMJ, 1994

Prostatic cancer and radionuclides Evidence implicates zinc-65 EDrroR,-In their paper on prostati... more Prostatic cancer and radionuclides Evidence implicates zinc-65 EDrroR,-In their paper on prostatic cancer in employees of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Cleone Rooney and colleagues raise the possibility of localisation of zinc-65 in the prostate being an aetiological factor but state that "there are no reliable data on 65Zn uptake by the human prostate."' Prout et al showed in 1959 that 65Zn localises avidly in the prostate in human males, and especially in benign adenomas.2 In 1956 Daniel et al showed that the ratio of the 65Zn concentration in normal prostates to that in blood was over 2-5:1; one patient had a ratio of 27:1.3 The consensus of both groups was that neoplastic prostates concentrated less zinc. The uptake of zinc by the human prostate is so high that it is technically possible to image the prostate with ""9Zn." (Unfortunately, there are no isotopes of zinc suitable for routine imaging, so this approach has not found a place in routine nuclear medicine.) This avid uptake of zinc by the prostate must increase the probability of 65Zn being a relevant factor in carcinogenesis in this population.

Did Chemical Exposures of Servicemen at Porton Down Result in Subsequent Effects on their Health? The 2005 Porton Down Veterans Support Group Case Control Study. First Report

Green Audit paper 2006/2, 2006

The Porton Down Veterans Support Group mailed 505 questionnaires to members in order to investiga... more The Porton Down Veterans Support Group mailed 505 questionnaires to members in order to investigate any possible connection between exposures at Porton Down and subsequent ill health. Members were asked to obtain controls of the same age. There were 261 questionnaires which were returned by veterans together with 123 control questionnaires. This enabled us to conduct a case-control analysis of health in the veterans compared with the controls. For some conditions like cancer, birth outcomes or health in the children we were able to compare the rates in the veterans with national data. The mean age of the 261 veterans who responded was 69.0 (SD = 7.1) and of the 123 controls was 67.6 (SD = 6.1). Most of the experiments were conducted between 1950 and 1960 although some had been carried out as recently as 1989. Cases reported being exposed to Mustard Gas, Sarin and other nerve gases, CS gases and riot agents, to mind altering substances like LSD and to a range of other toxic substances and unknown compounds. Respondents recorded the effects on them at the time and in the period after. The experiments and the immediate effects were bizarre, frightening and often clearly involved major clinical symptoms. Some volunteers were blinded, others woke up in hospital, some took considerable time to recover. We examined cancer in the cases relative to the controls and national data. Levels of cancer in the controls were lower than expected on the basis of national rates. For all malignancy combined, using cancer diagnosed in the period 2001 to 2005 Standardised Incidence Ratio (SIR) based on England and Wales 2002 data was 1.02 in the veterans, equal to the expected level. Significantly high levels of prostate cancer were reported by the veterans (15 cases, SIR 2.6, CI 1.57<RR<4.26; p = 0.0001) and also malignant melanoma (3 cases, SIR = 8.0, CI 1.93<RR<26.8; p = 0.008). The melanoma excess is interesting as it is a biologically plausible cancer following skin exposure to a carcinogen like mustard gas. Comparison of cases with controls for current treatment for ongoing conditions showed a significant excess of heart disorders (OR 2.37; CI 1.17-1.89, p= 0.01), arrhythmias (OR 6.7; p = 0.04), respiratory disorders (OR 10.3, 1.44-207, p = 0.01) and diabetes (OR = 4.7 (1.01-7.2; p = 0.03). Cases showed significantly higher levels of many other conditions and illnesses than controls but for some of these e.g. strokes, comparisons with the Welsh Health Survey showed that the levels were not significantly different from those that might be expected in the age group. We examined miscarriages, infertility and child health in the 549 children born to the veterans and the 272 children born to the controls. There were significantly more miscarriages (OR = 2.23, 1.07<OR<4.75, p = 0.02) in the veterans and significantly more infertility (OR infinity based on 28 vs. 0). In addition, the children were significantly more ill with 4.39 times the reported health problems (OR 4.35; 2.08<OR<9.43, p = 0.00001). There were twice the number of child deaths (OR = 1.86 on 38 deaths), mental health problems (11 vs.0), epilepsy (3 vs. 0) and brain damage (5 vs. 0). There was an astonishingly high rate of child cancer reported in the offspring of the veterans including two child leukemias. This represented and SIR of 10.2 for leukaemia 0-14 (based on 2 cases, p = 0.018) and 5.3 for all cancers 0-14 (based on 4 cases; p = 0.005). Amazingly, there was one child leukaemia reported in the controls, the only child cancer in the controls. Overall, the infertility, the miscarriages and the health of the children of the veterans and their cancer rate, is consistent with genetic damage in the parents.

The cancer incidence temporality index: An index to show temporal changes in the age of onset of overall and specific cancer (England and Wales, 1971e1999

Biomedicine and pharmacotherapy, 2007

The theory that increasing cancer incidence rates in developed countries are primarily the conseq... more The theory that increasing cancer incidence rates in developed countries are primarily the consequence of an expanding ageing population and
improved diagnostic testing is widely held. In the United Kingdom the proportion of people aged 50 and over has increased by 45% since 1951 and
this proportion is set to increase by a further 36% by the year 2031, so the United Kingdom does indeed have an expanding ageing population.
However, the increase in cancer incidence affects people across the whole age spectrum. To test the hypothesis that the age of onset of cancer
(overall and specific) in England and Wales is decreasing over time we have developed The Cancer Incidence Temporality Index (CITI), which
gives a crude measurement of the portion of the population, in which cancer incidence is rising fastest over time: I ¼ (POa/PEa)/(POa/PEa),
where I is the CITI value, O is the observed number of cases and E is the expected number of cases; ‘a’ and ‘b’ refer to separate summation ranges
for younger and older age groups. Population data and cancer incidence data in England andWales, 1971e1999 were obtained from the UK Office
for National Statistics. The trends in CITI values have been shown graphically for cancer overall and for specific tumour sites. The impact of
diagnostic testing is also addressed. The results of this study suggest that the average age of onset of prostate, breast and cervical cancer is temporally
decreasing. The study also suggests that for cancer overall the trend for the age of onset of cancer in males has stabilised since 1990 and has
started to reverse in females from 1995 despite the expanding ageing population. A similar trend is observed for leukaemias. The CITI analysis for
colon cancer shows that the age of onset in both males and females is increasing over time. The trend for ovarian cancer is similar to that for colon
cancer. The CITI analysis for NHL in males is similar to that for colon cancer, however, in females the trend stabilised after 1990. The CITI may
aid prediction of changes in the age of onset of cancer and thus aid targeted aetiological research. In addition, we suggest the need for a mathematical
model, which may measure the changes in the age of onset of cancer in units of time.

The Hiroshima A-Bomb Black Rain and the Lifespan Study; A Resolution of the Enigma

Cancer Investigation, Sep 16, 2021

Abstract The Japanese Lifespan Study (LSS) of the A-Bomb survivors is the principal basis of the ... more Abstract The Japanese Lifespan Study (LSS) of the A-Bomb survivors is the principal basis of the current legal radiological framework. Evidence provided for the first time here shows that internal exposure to radiologically significant quantities of Uranium-234 contained in sub-micron particle rainout from the un-fissioned weapon warhead, the Black Rain, is a missing exposure in the LSS analysis. It is argued that this is responsible for a background excess cancer risk in all the LSS dose groups. This, together with epidemiological evidence based on unexposed controls falsifies the LSS cancer vs. dose regression coefficients for internal exposure.

High Cancer Risk in US Naval Personnel Serving in Nuclear Powered Ships

Cancer Investigation, Feb 25, 2020

The USA Defense Threat Reduction Agency provided data in 2014 on the health status, including can... more The USA Defense Threat Reduction Agency provided data in 2014 on the health status, including cancer, of the 4,843 sailors on the nuclear-powered United States Ship (USS) Ronald Reagan over the 2.55-year period from May 12, 2011 to Dec 31, 2013. Also provided were data on a matched control group of 65,269 US Navy personnel. Examination of the control population relative to the US national data gives a relative risk for all malignancies of RR ¼ 9.2 (95% CI 8.48 < 9.2 < 9.96). The result suggests a significant cancer risk associated with serving on a nuclear-powered ship, one which is not predicted by the science underlying current radiation protection legislation.

European Committee on Radiation Risk Comité Européen sur le Risque de l'Irradiation

Cancer in the offspring of radiation workers

BMJ, May 30, 1998

Editor-The levonorgestrel intrauterine system (Mirena), a useful addition to contraceptive choice... more Editor-The levonorgestrel intrauterine system (Mirena), a useful addition to contraceptive choice, is now approaching its third anniversary. In the United Kingdom the product licence for the levonorgestrel intrauterine system permits its use for three years. In all other countries where the system is marketed, however, its use is approved for five years. There is good evidence to support this longer duration, 1 and indeed the system seems to remain effective for as long as seven years. 2 We understand that Schering Healthcare has applied for a two year extension to its current licence, backed by their new data that relates to the new polymer that has been used since 1990. Many clinicians have asked us if they should conform strictly to the current product licence and replace each intrauterine system on the third anniversary of its insertion. We would strongly advise delaying reinsertion in this time, at least until the expected statement from the Medicines Control Agency. It is well known that the process of insertion of all intrauterine contraceptives causes problems (short term inconvenience and discomfort followed by new bleeding and pain or expulsion) and also real risks, 3 4 notably perforation and upper genital tract infection. These would be unacceptable if it emerges that reinsertions were not necessary. Users of the levonorgestrel intrauterine system can be reassured that good data are available to support its use for five years. From 15 May, and until any statement concerning a change in the licence, continuation beyond three years is legitimate, at the woman's choice, provided the established criteria for use by named patients are observed-that is, explaining that this is unlicensed use of a licensed product; highlighting the risks and benefits of the proposed non-intervention; obtaining and recording the woman's verbal consent in her case notes; and keeping a separate record of the woman's name and the nature of the unlicensed use. 5

Commentary on the Second Event Theory of Busby by A. A. Edwards and R. Cox

PubMed, 2000

Increases in Leukemia in Infants in Wales and Scotland following Chernobyl: Evidence for Errors in Statutory Risk Estimates

Energy & Environment, Mar 1, 2000

After the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986, rainfall precipitation caused measurable radi... more After the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986, rainfall precipitation caused measurable radioactive contamination of Wales and Scotland. Using risk models developed by themselves and by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, the UK National Radiological Protection Board advised that no measurable increase in leukemia was predicted at exposures which they estimated from measurements of contamination. However, cancer registry data from both the Wales and Scotland registries show a sharp increase in cases of infant leukemia age 0-1 in the eighteen month period January 1st 1987 to June 30th 1988. This period is that in which the birth cohort who were in utero in the exposure period following the fallout would be in the age group 0-1. Compared with an 'unexposed group' consisting of the period 1975-1986 the Wales exposed group had a relative risk (RR) of 4.4 (p = 0.004), the Scotland group a RR of 3.7 (p = .001) and the combined Wales and Scotland group an RR of 3.87 (p = .0001). A second unexposed group, those aged 0-1 in 1989-91 had no significant increased risk although after 1991 rates increased slightly. This finding supports earlier reports of infant leukemia effects in Greece, Germany and the U.S. following Chernobyl. The data cannot entirely distinguish between pre-conception or in utero effects but also reported here are increases in very low birth-weight births in Wales following Chernobyl, suggesting a genetic component to both effects. The existence of good quality leukemia and exposure data makes it possible to calculate an error in the presently accepted risk factors for radiation induced leukemia following this kind of exposure of about 100-fold or more. The possibility of errors of this magnitude in the contemporary risk estimates of ionizing radiation effects suggests that a more cautious approach should be exercised to policy decisions about nuclear power options.

2003 recommendations of the ECRR : the health effects of lonising radiation exposure at low doses for radiation protection purposes

Anomalous Health Effects of Uranium Exposure

The last ten years has seen increasing evidence that the element Uranium cannot be safely assesse... more The last ten years has seen increasing evidence that the element Uranium cannot be safely assessed by the conventional radiation risk model, that of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The author begins by discussing some philosophical issues which relate to the science which underpins the historical development of the understanding of risk from internal chronic and external acute exposures. These include the applicability of the averaging concept of “absorbed dose” to elements, like Uranium, which have chemical affinity for DNA. He continues by reviewing evidence that shows that Uranium, especially when absorbed through inhalation as a particulate, represents a serious genotoxic hazard, which shows itself as chromosome damage, heritable disease and cancer at very low conventional doses. Finally, he presents new evidence relating to the Secondary Photoelectron Effect whereby elements of high atomic number, e.g. Gold and Uranium, which have very high absorption cross sections for natural background photon radiations, concentrate such energy and re-emit it as photoelectrons into local tissue.

Child health and ionizing radiation: Science, Politics and European Law

Pediatric dimensions, 2017

Between 2000 and 2006 the European Union funded a pan-European group of epidemiologists, toxicolo... more Between 2000 and 2006 the European Union funded a pan-European group of epidemiologists, toxicologists and paediatricians, the Policy Information Network on Child Health and Environment (PINCHE) [1]. The purpose of the network was to examine all the literature on environmental contamination agents to provide evidencebased recommendations to the European Commission on how best to regulate exposures that had been shown or suspected to affect childrens' health. The need for this was apparent from the increasing incidence of a number of illnesses in children and young people like childhood cancer, leukemia, asthma and a range of other increasingly prevalent conditions. Additionally, one purpose was to recommend ways in which the Commission could set up agencies or committees to develop ways in which causal linkages between exposure and illnesses might obtain unbiased information. This workgroup was the Science-Policy interface, and I was the leader of this group. PINCHE reported in 2006 and its recommendations were published in the literature [2-4] are available on the web.

A Risk Coefficient for Radiation-Induced Dementia

Advances in Alzheimer's disease, 2018

The effect of ionising radiation exposure on dementia is approached by applying the causation mod... more The effect of ionising radiation exposure on dementia is approached by applying the causation models of John Stuart Mill and of Sir Austin Bradford Hill to mechanism and epidemiological evidence. Since ionizing radiation is known to kill brain cells in laboratory culture and to affect hippocampal neurogenesis in animal experiments at modest doses, it is reasonable to assume that exposure to radiation must affect neurological integrity and hence dementia rates in those who are exposed. There is persuasive evidence from the epidemiological studies of a large cohort of female nuclear workers that ionising radiation exposure is associated with significant low dose region dose-dependent increases in rates of dementia. Using results from these studies, the Probability of Causation approach (PC), conventionally employed for assessing cancer risk following radiation exposure, is extended to dementia to find a risk coefficient for all ages of 60 per Sievert cumulative exposure over the range 0-100 mSv. The finding suggests that natural background external exposures to ionizing radiation are partly responsible for the development of dementia in human populations. A simple general model for dementia is proposed.

Re-Thinking Biology—I. Maxwell’s Demon and the Spontaneous Origin of Life

Advances in Biological Chemistry, 2017

A hypothesis is advanced in which life began from a Darwinian selection among a diversification o... more A hypothesis is advanced in which life began from a Darwinian selection among a diversification of molecular species containing the phosphate moiety which broke the constraints implicit in the Second Law of Thermodynamics, discussed famously by Schrodinger, by obtaining energy from specific infrared frequencies located in the phosphorus-oxygen vibration at a frequency around 1000 cm −1. We propose the source of this energy was from the internal conversion of solar broadband energy by the phosphate mineral Apatite, present at the bottom of a primitive biogenesis pond. In this scenario, life is redefined as being hotter than its environment and as using its excess energy, supplied by infra-red conversion, to react with its molecular environment and pump itself up the "entropy slope" thereby; replication is through breakages of increasingly large phosphate containing biopolymers. The idea has implications for modern explanations of living systems.

The Secondary Photoelectron Effect: Gamma Ray Ionisation Enhancement in Tissues from High Atomic Number Elements

IntechOpen eBooks, Oct 2, 2019

The absorption of gamma rays is roughly proportional to the fifth power of the atomic number of a... more The absorption of gamma rays is roughly proportional to the fifth power of the atomic number of an element. This immediately raises the issue of tissue ionisation enhancement effects from photoelectron production by elements of high atomic number incorporated into living tissue. The issue was raised in the 1950s in relation to calcium in the bone but has received little attention since then. New results, derived from mathematical modelling carried out at the University of Ulster, of photoemission from nanoparticles of gold and uranium are presented. These show that significant ionisation enhancement effects can occur when incorporated particles of high atomic number are exposed to natural background gamma radiation, effects which increase sharply at the lower energy end of the spectrum, around 150 keV. The effects must also occur for molecular species. The general problem is discussed, with reference to the literature, and approximate enhancement factors are derived for the effect. The implications for the evolutionary selection of elements by life are explored.

Fundamental errors in official epidemiological studies of environmental pollution in Wales

Journal of Public Health, Jun 1, 2006

High Risks at Low Doses

Since a wise man may be wrong, or a hundred men, or several nations and since even human nature, ... more Since a wise man may be wrong, or a hundred men, or several nations and since even human nature, as we think, goes wrong for several centuries on this matter or that, how can we be certain that it occasionally stops going wrong and that in this century it is not mistaken Montaigne (1533-92): The Essays.

What is Life? On the origin and mechanism of living systems

In this small book, Busby presents the results of a lifetime search for the mechanism of life its... more In this small book, Busby presents the results of a lifetime search for the mechanism of life itself, ideas which began with his work on the mechanism of molecular drug interactions in the 1970s and upon which he has carried out fundamental research throughout the intervening 45 years, and contues to do so.

Anomalous Helath Effects of Uranium Exposure

Scholars Press, 2017

This book reviews the issue of the health effects of exposure to Uranium, expecially recent epide... more

The Secondary Photoelectron Effect: gamma ray ionization enhancement in tissues from high atomic number elements

InTechOpen, 2019

The absorption of gamma rays is roughly proportional to the fifth power of the atomic number of a... more The absorption of gamma rays is roughly proportional to the fifth power of the atomic number of an element. This immediately raises the issue of tissue ionization enhancement effects from photoelectron production by elements of high atomic number incorporated into living tissue. The issue was raised in the 1950s in relation to calcium in bone, but has received little attention since then. New results are presented derived from mathematical modelling carried out at the University of Ulster, of photoemission from nanoparticles of Gold and Uranium. These show that significant ionization enhancement effects can occur when incorporated particles of high atomic number are exposed to Natural Background gamma radiation, effects which increase sharply at the lower energy end of the spectrum, around 150keV. The effects must also occur for molecular species. The general problem is discussed, with reference to the literature, and approximate enhancement factors are derived for the effect. The implications for the evolutionary selection of elements by life are explored.

The Second Event Theory: sequential radiogenic error induction within the repair replication period

A great deal of work went into writing this chapter and it was unacceptable to have it rejected a... more A great deal of work went into writing this chapter and it was unacceptable to have it rejected at the last minute. I informed the IntechOpen (Ms Mia Vulovic) that I would publish the chapter independently and draw attention to what happened. It is in this way that research which is hostile to the nuclear military project becomes invisible. This Chapter is an expanded and largely rewritten version of the paper Enhanced Mutagenicity of Internal Sequentially Decaying Beta-Emitters from Second Event Effects that was presented in Muenster in Germany in 1998 and Published in the Proceedings of that Conference organized by the German Society for Radioprotection. The proceedings are now out of print. All of the Figures from the Conference Proceedings are reproduced here. It was peer-reviewed for the conference proceedings.

The Second Event Theory: sequential radiogenic error induction within the repair replication period

A great deal of work went into writing this chapter and it was unacceptable to have it rejected a... more A great deal of work went into writing this chapter and it was unacceptable to have it rejected at the last minute. I informed the IntechOpen (Ms Mia Vulovic) that I would publish the chapter independently and draw attention to what happened. It is in this way that research which is hostile to the nuclear military project becomes invisible. This Chapter is an expanded and largely rewritten version of the paper that was accepted and given in Muenster in Germany in 1998 and Published in the Proceedings of that Conference organized by the German Society for Radioprotection. The proceedings are now out of print. All of the Figures from the Conference Proceedings are reproduced here. It was peer-reviewed for the conference proceedings.

US Congressional Committee: Gulf War illnesses, 2002

In 2002 the US Congressional Committee on Veterans Affairs chaired by Christopher Shays came to t... more In 2002 the US Congressional Committee on Veterans Affairs chaired by Christopher Shays came to the House of Lords in London to hear evidence about the origin of Gulf War Syndrome. Christopher Busby gave the evidence on Depleted Uranium effects. This is that part of the conference that relates to Depleted Uranium

Busbyberniesanders

US Congress: Research into Persian Gulf Illnesses, 2002

In 2002 the US Congressional Committee on Veterans Affairs chaired by Christopher Shays came to t... more In 2002 the US Congressional Committee on Veterans Affairs chaired by Christopher Shays came to the House of Lords in London to hear evidence about the origin of Gulf War Syndrome. Christopher Busby gave the evidence on Depleted Uranium effects. At the end, there were some questions and answers. Here Dr Busby extracts exchangeds between himself and Bernie Sanders and Ross Perot which are perhaps informative.

Childhood leukemia data from CCRG

This file contains the childhood leukemia data obtained from the Childhood Cancer Research Group ... more This file contains the childhood leukemia data obtained from the Childhood Cancer Research Group in 2003 by the Epidemiology Sub Committee of the Committee Examining Radiation Risk from Internal Emitters. It is background data for a submission on the increases in child leukemia in Wales and Scotland which shows a significant increase after Chernobyl linked to internal exposures to the fallout.