Mathematical models and ecological theory suggest that low-dimensional life history trade-offs (i... more Mathematical models and ecological theory suggest that low-dimensional life history trade-offs (i.e. negative correlation between two life history traits such as competition vs. colonisation) may potentially explain the maintenance of species diversity and community structure. In the absence of trade-offs, we would expect communities to be dominated by 'super-types' characterised by mainly positive trait expressions. However, it has proven difficult to find strong empirical evidence for such trade-offs in species-rich communities. We developed a spatially explicit, rule-based and individual-based stochastic model to explore the importance of low-dimensional trade-offs. This model simulates the community dynamics of 288 virtual plant functional types (PFTs), each of which is described by seven life history traits. We consider trait combinations that fit into the trade-off concept, as well as super-types with little or no energy constraints or resource limitations, and weak PFTs, which do not exploit resources efficiently. The model is parameterised using data from a fire-prone, species-rich Mediterranean-type shrubland in southwestern Australia. We performed an exclusion experiment, where we sequentially removed the strongest PFT in the simulation and studied the remaining communities. We analysed the impact of traits on performance of PFTs in the exclusion experiment with standard and boosted regression trees. Regression tree analysis of the simulation results showed that the trade-off concept is necessary for PFT viability in the case of weak trait expression combinations such as low seed production or small seeds. However, species richness and diversity can be high despite the presence of super-types. Furthermore, the exclusion of super-types does not necessarily lead to a large increase in PFT richness and diversity. We conclude that low-dimensional trade-offs do not provide explanations for multi-species co-existence contrary to the prediction of many conceptual models.
We analyzed relative sensitivities of small-and medium-sized carnivores to livestock husbandry (s... more We analyzed relative sensitivities of small-and medium-sized carnivores to livestock husbandry (stocking rates and predator control) in Kalahari, South Africa, rangelands at a regional scale. We monitored small carnivores using track counts on 22 Kalahari farms across a land-use gradient ranging from low to high stocking rates and also interviewed each farm manager to identify farmers' perception of small carnivores as potential predators for livestock. We recorded 12 species of small-and medium-sized carnivores across 22 Kalahari farms. Stocking rate was the most important driving variable for local carnivore abundance. Abundance of all species was lowest on farms where stocking rate was high. Most farm managers perceived medium-sized carnivores, in particular, African wildcat (Felis silvestris lybica), blackbacked jackal (Canis mesomelas), and caracal (Caracal caracal ), as potential predators of livestock. Multiple regression analysis shows that blackbacked jackal, African wildcat, and caracal were negatively affected by predator control measures, whereas bat-eared fox (Otocyon megalotis), cape fox (Vulpes chama), and small-spotted genet (Genetta genetta) were positively affected. Our results show a need for expanding research and conservation activities toward small-and medium-sized carnivores in southern African savannah rangelands. We, therefore, suggest developing a monitoring program combining passive tracking with indigenous knowledge of local Khoisan Bushmen to monitor carnivore populations, and we recommend additional predator removal experiments that manipulate predator densities.
Measurement and Modeling at Landscape to Global Scales, 2010
16 Population and Ecosystem Modeling of Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Arid and Semiarid ... more 16 Population and Ecosystem Modeling of Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Arid and Semiarid Savanna Dynamics Florian Jeltsch, Britta Tietjen, Niels Blaum, and Eva Rossmanith CONTENTS Introduction......................................................................................................... 309 ...
Microbes in nature are exposed to complex environmental stressors which challenge their functioni... more Microbes in nature are exposed to complex environmental stressors which challenge their functioning or survival. Priming is the improved reaction of an organism to an environmental stressor following a preceding, often milder stress event. This phenomenon, also known as cross-protection, predictive response strategy or acquired stress resistance, is becoming an increasingly well-established research topic in microbiology, which has so far been examined from the perspective of a single organism or population. However, microbes in nature occur as part of communities; thus it is timely to highlight the need to also include this level beyond the individual species in studies of priming effects. We here introduce a conceptual framework for such studies at the level of the microbial assemblage, and also chart a way forward for empirical and theoretical study. We illustrate some of the elements of our framework with a simple simulation model. Given the dynamic habitat of many microbes, inc...
ABSTRACT Land degradation through water erosion is driven by ecogeomorphological processes which ... more ABSTRACT Land degradation through water erosion is driven by ecogeomorphological processes which may alter transfer paths at the hillslope, the soil-hydraulic conditions of the upper soil layers and the vegetation structure of the hillslope. These processes are interlinked with each other through augmenting feedback mechanisms in such a way that a small change in land use (e.g. temporary overgrazing, cattle trails) may result in a re-organisation of the affected landscape. A grassland-shrubland transition zone in the south-western United States is being investigated here for soil-vegetation-transfer feedback mechanisms. For this purpose, an ecogeomorphological, process-based model has been developed which simulates the redistribution of sediments and nutrients during high-intensity rainstorms in 1-sec time steps, the soil moisture and transpiration dynamics in daily time steps, and the vegetation dynamics (establishment, growth, mortality) in 14-day time steps for a high-resolution grid of 1x1 m2. Through long-term modelling and the modelling of extremes (prolonged droughts or overgrazing), the numerical approach is employed to analyse which types of feedbacks may occur and may trigger persistent vegetation change and land degradation of the hillslope. Using this model it is for the first time possible to couple the occurrence of self-organisational patterns of moisture and soil resource availability of a hillslope with redistribution processes that occur during high-intensity storms. The model thus closes the gap of current modelling approaches that either investigate only individual extreme events or models the long-term dynamics of a landscape without including the detailed erosion processes.
Scales, key aspects, feedbacks and challenges of ecohydrological research in Germany Ökohydrologi... more Scales, key aspects, feedbacks and challenges of ecohydrological research in Germany Ökohydrologie als verbindende Disziplin zwischen der Biotik und Abiotik von Landschaftssystemen ist in ihrer thematischen Ausrichtung und Methodik äußerst vielfältig. In diesem Artikel werden exemplarisch ökohydrologische Forschungsschwerpunkte von deutschen Forschergruppen für Pflanzen-Tiere-Boden-Systeme, mesoskalige Einzugsgebiete und ihrer Flussnetze, Seensysteme, Küstenregionen und tidebeeinflusste Flussunterläufe vorgestellt und hinsichtlich ihrer räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen und Art der Interaktionen und Rückkopplungen zwischen hydrologischen und biotischen Prozessen und Mustern (Flora, Fauna, Biogeochemie) diskutiert. Als zentrale Herausforderungen werden die Analyse des interdisziplinären Skalenkontinuums, die Entwicklung von dynamisch gekoppelten Modellsystemen, das integrierte Monitoring von gekoppelten Prozessen und die Übertragung von ökohydrologischer Grundlagenforschung auf die Entwicklung von nachhaltigem Wasser-und Landressourcenmanagement unter regionalem und globalem Wandel definiert. Schlagwörter: Flussnetzwerke, hyporheische Zone, Küstenregionen, mesoskalige Landschaftssysteme, ökohydrologische Modellierung, Pflanzen-Tiere-Boden-Systeme, Rückkopplung, Trockengebiete
1] Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. Th... more 1] Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions between water and vegetation, which exhibit strong feedbacks. To evaluate these feedbacks and the effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, we developed a generic, process-based, spatially explicit soil moisture model of two soil layers, which can be coupled with vegetation models. A time scale relevant for ecological processes can be simulated without difficulty, and the model avoids complex parameterization with data that are unavailable for most regions of the world. We applied the model to four sites in Israel along a precipitation and soil type gradient and assessed the effects of climate change by comparing possible climatic changes with present climate conditions. The results show that in addition to temperature, the total amount of precipitation and its intra-annual variability are an important driver of soil moisture patterns. This indicates that particularly with regard to climate change, the approach of many ecological models that simulate water dynamics on an annual base is far too simple to make reliable predictions. Thus, the introduced model can serve as a valuable tool to improve present ecological models of dry lands because of its focus on the applicability and transferability. Citation: Tietjen, B., E. Zehe, and F. Jeltsch (2009), Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change: A generic model of two soil layers, Water Resour. Res., 45, W01418,
Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st cen... more Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. • We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL).
Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody pla... more Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their longterm suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment.
1. Sustainable land use under climate change requires detailed knowledge of the system dynamics. ... more 1. Sustainable land use under climate change requires detailed knowledge of the system dynamics. This applies particularly for the management of domestic livestock in semiarid and arid grazing systems, where the risk of degradation is high and likely climate change may have a strong impact. A suitable way to assess potential future trends of these complex systems is through the application of simulation models. 2. We reviewed 41 models published between 1995 and 2005 simulating semi-arid and arid livestock grazing systems. The models were categorized according to the model aim and type, their temporal and spatial scale, and several indicators of model complexity. Additionally, we developed a list of model requirements for adequately simulating the effects of climate change. Based on these requirements, we evaluated the potential of current models to simulate impacts of climate change and determine important shortcomings.
ABSTRACT 1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations... more ABSTRACT 1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO 2 level increase in combination with changes in interand intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration.
Drylands worldwide are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradati... more Drylands worldwide are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of global climate change such as altered precipitation patterns and increased temperature leading to reduced water availability will likely increase this risk. At the same time, an elevated atmospheric CO 2 level could mitigate the effects of reduced water availability by increasing the water use efficiency of plants. To prevent degradation of drylands, it is essential to understand the underlying processes that affect water availability and vegetation cover. Since water and vegetation are strongly interdependent in waterlimited ecosystems, changes can lead to highly non-linear effects. We assess these effects by developing an ecohydrological model of soil moisture and vegetation cover. The water component of the model simulates the daily dynamics of surface water and water contents in two soil layers. Vegetation is represented by two functional types: shrubs and grasses. These compete for soil water and strongly influence hydrological processes. We apply the model to a Namibian thornbush savanna and evaluate the separate and combined effects of decreased annual precipitation, increased temperature, more variable precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO 2 on soil moisture and on vegetation cover. The results show that two main factors control the response of plant types towards climate change, namely a change in water availability and a change in water allocation to a specific plant type. Especially, reduced competitiveness of grasses can lead to a higher risk of shrub encroachment in these systems.
Mathematical models and ecological theory suggest that low-dimensional life history trade-offs (i... more Mathematical models and ecological theory suggest that low-dimensional life history trade-offs (i.e. negative correlation between two life history traits such as competition vs. colonisation) may potentially explain the maintenance of species diversity and community structure. In the absence of trade-offs, we would expect communities to be dominated by 'super-types' characterised by mainly positive trait expressions. However, it has proven difficult to find strong empirical evidence for such trade-offs in species-rich communities. We developed a spatially explicit, rule-based and individual-based stochastic model to explore the importance of low-dimensional trade-offs. This model simulates the community dynamics of 288 virtual plant functional types (PFTs), each of which is described by seven life history traits. We consider trait combinations that fit into the trade-off concept, as well as super-types with little or no energy constraints or resource limitations, and weak PFTs, which do not exploit resources efficiently. The model is parameterised using data from a fire-prone, species-rich Mediterranean-type shrubland in southwestern Australia. We performed an exclusion experiment, where we sequentially removed the strongest PFT in the simulation and studied the remaining communities. We analysed the impact of traits on performance of PFTs in the exclusion experiment with standard and boosted regression trees. Regression tree analysis of the simulation results showed that the trade-off concept is necessary for PFT viability in the case of weak trait expression combinations such as low seed production or small seeds. However, species richness and diversity can be high despite the presence of super-types. Furthermore, the exclusion of super-types does not necessarily lead to a large increase in PFT richness and diversity. We conclude that low-dimensional trade-offs do not provide explanations for multi-species co-existence contrary to the prediction of many conceptual models.
We analyzed relative sensitivities of small-and medium-sized carnivores to livestock husbandry (s... more We analyzed relative sensitivities of small-and medium-sized carnivores to livestock husbandry (stocking rates and predator control) in Kalahari, South Africa, rangelands at a regional scale. We monitored small carnivores using track counts on 22 Kalahari farms across a land-use gradient ranging from low to high stocking rates and also interviewed each farm manager to identify farmers' perception of small carnivores as potential predators for livestock. We recorded 12 species of small-and medium-sized carnivores across 22 Kalahari farms. Stocking rate was the most important driving variable for local carnivore abundance. Abundance of all species was lowest on farms where stocking rate was high. Most farm managers perceived medium-sized carnivores, in particular, African wildcat (Felis silvestris lybica), blackbacked jackal (Canis mesomelas), and caracal (Caracal caracal ), as potential predators of livestock. Multiple regression analysis shows that blackbacked jackal, African wildcat, and caracal were negatively affected by predator control measures, whereas bat-eared fox (Otocyon megalotis), cape fox (Vulpes chama), and small-spotted genet (Genetta genetta) were positively affected. Our results show a need for expanding research and conservation activities toward small-and medium-sized carnivores in southern African savannah rangelands. We, therefore, suggest developing a monitoring program combining passive tracking with indigenous knowledge of local Khoisan Bushmen to monitor carnivore populations, and we recommend additional predator removal experiments that manipulate predator densities.
Measurement and Modeling at Landscape to Global Scales, 2010
16 Population and Ecosystem Modeling of Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Arid and Semiarid ... more 16 Population and Ecosystem Modeling of Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Arid and Semiarid Savanna Dynamics Florian Jeltsch, Britta Tietjen, Niels Blaum, and Eva Rossmanith CONTENTS Introduction......................................................................................................... 309 ...
Microbes in nature are exposed to complex environmental stressors which challenge their functioni... more Microbes in nature are exposed to complex environmental stressors which challenge their functioning or survival. Priming is the improved reaction of an organism to an environmental stressor following a preceding, often milder stress event. This phenomenon, also known as cross-protection, predictive response strategy or acquired stress resistance, is becoming an increasingly well-established research topic in microbiology, which has so far been examined from the perspective of a single organism or population. However, microbes in nature occur as part of communities; thus it is timely to highlight the need to also include this level beyond the individual species in studies of priming effects. We here introduce a conceptual framework for such studies at the level of the microbial assemblage, and also chart a way forward for empirical and theoretical study. We illustrate some of the elements of our framework with a simple simulation model. Given the dynamic habitat of many microbes, inc...
ABSTRACT Land degradation through water erosion is driven by ecogeomorphological processes which ... more ABSTRACT Land degradation through water erosion is driven by ecogeomorphological processes which may alter transfer paths at the hillslope, the soil-hydraulic conditions of the upper soil layers and the vegetation structure of the hillslope. These processes are interlinked with each other through augmenting feedback mechanisms in such a way that a small change in land use (e.g. temporary overgrazing, cattle trails) may result in a re-organisation of the affected landscape. A grassland-shrubland transition zone in the south-western United States is being investigated here for soil-vegetation-transfer feedback mechanisms. For this purpose, an ecogeomorphological, process-based model has been developed which simulates the redistribution of sediments and nutrients during high-intensity rainstorms in 1-sec time steps, the soil moisture and transpiration dynamics in daily time steps, and the vegetation dynamics (establishment, growth, mortality) in 14-day time steps for a high-resolution grid of 1x1 m2. Through long-term modelling and the modelling of extremes (prolonged droughts or overgrazing), the numerical approach is employed to analyse which types of feedbacks may occur and may trigger persistent vegetation change and land degradation of the hillslope. Using this model it is for the first time possible to couple the occurrence of self-organisational patterns of moisture and soil resource availability of a hillslope with redistribution processes that occur during high-intensity storms. The model thus closes the gap of current modelling approaches that either investigate only individual extreme events or models the long-term dynamics of a landscape without including the detailed erosion processes.
Scales, key aspects, feedbacks and challenges of ecohydrological research in Germany Ökohydrologi... more Scales, key aspects, feedbacks and challenges of ecohydrological research in Germany Ökohydrologie als verbindende Disziplin zwischen der Biotik und Abiotik von Landschaftssystemen ist in ihrer thematischen Ausrichtung und Methodik äußerst vielfältig. In diesem Artikel werden exemplarisch ökohydrologische Forschungsschwerpunkte von deutschen Forschergruppen für Pflanzen-Tiere-Boden-Systeme, mesoskalige Einzugsgebiete und ihrer Flussnetze, Seensysteme, Küstenregionen und tidebeeinflusste Flussunterläufe vorgestellt und hinsichtlich ihrer räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen und Art der Interaktionen und Rückkopplungen zwischen hydrologischen und biotischen Prozessen und Mustern (Flora, Fauna, Biogeochemie) diskutiert. Als zentrale Herausforderungen werden die Analyse des interdisziplinären Skalenkontinuums, die Entwicklung von dynamisch gekoppelten Modellsystemen, das integrierte Monitoring von gekoppelten Prozessen und die Übertragung von ökohydrologischer Grundlagenforschung auf die Entwicklung von nachhaltigem Wasser-und Landressourcenmanagement unter regionalem und globalem Wandel definiert. Schlagwörter: Flussnetzwerke, hyporheische Zone, Küstenregionen, mesoskalige Landschaftssysteme, ökohydrologische Modellierung, Pflanzen-Tiere-Boden-Systeme, Rückkopplung, Trockengebiete
1] Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. Th... more 1] Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions between water and vegetation, which exhibit strong feedbacks. To evaluate these feedbacks and the effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, we developed a generic, process-based, spatially explicit soil moisture model of two soil layers, which can be coupled with vegetation models. A time scale relevant for ecological processes can be simulated without difficulty, and the model avoids complex parameterization with data that are unavailable for most regions of the world. We applied the model to four sites in Israel along a precipitation and soil type gradient and assessed the effects of climate change by comparing possible climatic changes with present climate conditions. The results show that in addition to temperature, the total amount of precipitation and its intra-annual variability are an important driver of soil moisture patterns. This indicates that particularly with regard to climate change, the approach of many ecological models that simulate water dynamics on an annual base is far too simple to make reliable predictions. Thus, the introduced model can serve as a valuable tool to improve present ecological models of dry lands because of its focus on the applicability and transferability. Citation: Tietjen, B., E. Zehe, and F. Jeltsch (2009), Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change: A generic model of two soil layers, Water Resour. Res., 45, W01418,
Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st cen... more Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. • We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL).
Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody pla... more Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their longterm suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment.
1. Sustainable land use under climate change requires detailed knowledge of the system dynamics. ... more 1. Sustainable land use under climate change requires detailed knowledge of the system dynamics. This applies particularly for the management of domestic livestock in semiarid and arid grazing systems, where the risk of degradation is high and likely climate change may have a strong impact. A suitable way to assess potential future trends of these complex systems is through the application of simulation models. 2. We reviewed 41 models published between 1995 and 2005 simulating semi-arid and arid livestock grazing systems. The models were categorized according to the model aim and type, their temporal and spatial scale, and several indicators of model complexity. Additionally, we developed a list of model requirements for adequately simulating the effects of climate change. Based on these requirements, we evaluated the potential of current models to simulate impacts of climate change and determine important shortcomings.
ABSTRACT 1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations... more ABSTRACT 1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO 2 level increase in combination with changes in interand intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration.
Drylands worldwide are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradati... more Drylands worldwide are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of global climate change such as altered precipitation patterns and increased temperature leading to reduced water availability will likely increase this risk. At the same time, an elevated atmospheric CO 2 level could mitigate the effects of reduced water availability by increasing the water use efficiency of plants. To prevent degradation of drylands, it is essential to understand the underlying processes that affect water availability and vegetation cover. Since water and vegetation are strongly interdependent in waterlimited ecosystems, changes can lead to highly non-linear effects. We assess these effects by developing an ecohydrological model of soil moisture and vegetation cover. The water component of the model simulates the daily dynamics of surface water and water contents in two soil layers. Vegetation is represented by two functional types: shrubs and grasses. These compete for soil water and strongly influence hydrological processes. We apply the model to a Namibian thornbush savanna and evaluate the separate and combined effects of decreased annual precipitation, increased temperature, more variable precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO 2 on soil moisture and on vegetation cover. The results show that two main factors control the response of plant types towards climate change, namely a change in water availability and a change in water allocation to a specific plant type. Especially, reduced competitiveness of grasses can lead to a higher risk of shrub encroachment in these systems.
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