Breno Medeiros

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• PhD in Economics - Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul - UFRGS / PhD Sandwich at the University of Stavanger in Norway, focus on Industrial Policy and Oil and Gas
• Master in Economics from UFRGS, focus on Industrial and International Economics
• Graduated in Economic from Federal Fluminense University - UFF
• Had scholarship of federal programs (The Ministry of Education/The CAPES Foundation) in bachelor, master and doctoral’s programs
• He holds the position of Energy, Resources and Industrials specialist at Deloitte in Brazil, previously held the position of manager of the Deloitte Center for Oil & Gas Solutions
• Taught in courses in different universities in Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul
• 12 years of experience in the industrial development of the energy sector in Brazil - 2 years in biofuels and the last 10 years in the Oil and Gas and shipbuilding sector
• 16 years of research experience in Economics: Energy, Industrial, International, Brazilian and Public Policies for the Energy Sector
• Experience in the areas of Strategic Perspective and Systemic Thinking

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Emran El-Badawi

Tarleton State University

Ozan Ozavci

Utrecht University

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

Sandra (A.C.C.) van Wijk

American University of Sharjah

nazri engku

Universiti Utara Malaysia

Hanne Thomas

FHNW

Gerald Mako

University of Cambridge

Chee Yew Wong

University of Leeds

Joachim Arts

Université du Luxembourg

Jack D Sharples

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

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Thesis Chapters by Breno Medeiros

POLICIES TO DEVELOP THE OIL AND GAS SUPPLY CHAIN: ESSAYS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE LESSONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE NORWEGIAN EXPERIENCE TO BRAZIL

The aim of this thesis is to analyse different forms of Industrial Policy (IP) in Norway and Braz... more The aim of this thesis is to analyse different forms of Industrial Policy (IP) in Norway and Brazil to develop the Oil and Gas (O&G) supply chain, identifying the lessons and contributions from the Norwegian experience. The evolutionist view of IP forms the theoretical basis of the analysis, which is structured in three parts. The first two essays are in English and the third in Portuguese. The first essay presents a theoretical review of IP, defining the concept and placing the theories within a historical perspective, in addition to discussing other relevant issues, such as: its relation to macroeconomic policies; its stability and predictability; policy coordination; horizontal and vertical policies; types of instruments; measurement of results; linking benefits to progress in competitiveness/targets; and, finally, its duration. The article also discusses the main approaches taken towards IP today (orthodox and evolutionary). Thus, we see how IP was historically implemented in industrial development processes and find that there is still room to continue implementing it, despite the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its consequences. The second essay analyses the successful development of the O&G supply chain in Norway, promoting structural changes in the economy. Norway stood out in the development of the O&G sector for having succeeded, in just over 20 years of policy implementation (1972-1994), in: enhancing its socio-economic development; avoiding de-industrialization due to the Dutch disease; developing local oil companies (state and private); developing a broad and internationally competitive O&G supply chain, including the formation of clusters related to the O&G sector, and, moreover setting a benchmark in innovation in the O&G sector. The essay also illustrates the main actions implemented in Norway to develop the O&G sector. Although the development of the Norwegian O&G industry was marked by internal and external favourable factors, some relevant challenges had to be overcome, including cost overruns, delays in deliveries and important local companies went bankrupt. The third essay finds that the O&G supply chain in Brazil has evolved, the industrial policies have been improved, but while its development also shows some problems similar to those that Norway had to overcome in the past, it also has other peculiarities. On analysing the industrial policies implemented in both countries to develop this sector, it emerges that to some extent, Norway is already being used as reference for Brazil, but there are still lessons and contributions to be learned from this successful case. However, due to socio-economic, political and cultural differences, compounded by today’s more adverse global and domestic environment, the challenge Brazil has to face in developing a broad and competitive O&G supply chain is tougher than it was for Norway.

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Books by Breno Medeiros

Tapping the Bounty: Challenges to Restore the Investments in the Brazilian Oil Industry

BIODIESEL NO RIO GRANDE DO SUL COMPETITIVIDADE, SUSTENTABILIDADE E TENDÊNCIAS

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Papers by Breno Medeiros

Challenges with Production Sharing Contracts in Brazil: What the International Experience and Literature Review Can Tell Us?

Offshore Technology Conference Brasil

Investimento direto estrangeiro, transbordamentos e produtividade industrial : teorias, evidências e políticas aplicadas ao caso brasileiro

Non-technical Risk in Exploration and Production in Brazil: an Approach to Quantify and Manage it

by Breno Medeiros, Matheus Pereira, and Mateus Tavares

Rio Oil & Gas Conference 2018, 2018

The oil & gas (O&G) industry faces significant non-technical risks (NTRs) worldwide, because of i... more The oil & gas (O&G) industry faces significant non-technical risks (NTRs) worldwide, because of its complex operating environment and multiple stakeholders, which can provide conflicting steer, affecting negatively the projects’ development. The NTRs can be related to regulatory, public, socio-economic, governmental and environmental matters, which affects projects, delaying their execution and generating cost overruns, thus affecting operations and eroding Net Present Value - NPV (Adekoya and Ekpenyong, 2016). The purpose of this work is to contextualize Brazil in the global scenario of NTRs in the upstream sector, present some of the key NTRs factors applicable to E&P operations in the Brazilian market, and highlight the importance of identifying and quantifying NTRs, and defining the best approach to manage these risks. To exemplify the quantification of NTRs and their financial impact, we modeled a hypothetical exploratory oil license in the offshore Foz do Amazonas basin. The economic simulation showed that NTRs can have a material adverse impact on O&G projects, impairing value not only for the oil companies, but also for the Government and the entire supply chain. To this end, it is important to note that a proactive risk management program, which allows stakeholders to identify, quantify, classify, mitigate, and monitor NTRs in their early stages, could avoid the negative impacts discussed and demonstrated in this work.

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Norwegian Policies to Develop the Oil and Gas Supply Chain: There Are Still Lessons to Be Learned

Alexander Hamilton and Friedrich List stand out among the leading promoters of policies and actio... more Alexander Hamilton and Friedrich List stand out among the leading promoters of policies and actions focusing on industrial development, with their work in the 18th and 19th centuries, respectively, to accelerate the process of catching up for the United States and Germany. Since then, many other countries have implemented policies to develop its local industry. The country analysed here is Norway, which has been regarded worldwide as one of the best examples of success in implementing policies to develop the O&G industry. More than developing local oil companies, significant tax revenues to the Government, a giant petroleum fund and avoiding the Dutch disease/oil curse, Norway also managed to build up a broad and competitive O&G supply chain, with around 2.500 suppliers. Norway became a benchmark and a technological leader in several segments such as: subsea, drilling, seismic, offshore services and equipment. Another reason why this case is so emblematic is due to the short time in which Norway managed to build this whole industrial competence. It only started to produce oil at the beginning of the 70´s and the main or stronger policies instruments had to end when Norway joined the European Economic Area (EEA) in 1994. Not surprisingly, Norway became a reference for developed and developing countries in the attempt to manage oil resources and build a competitive local O&G industry, such as: Canada, Australia, South Africa, Uganda, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania and Brazil. However, Norway still had a learning curve, with the industrial development of the oil industry. Some of the challenges that Norway had to overcome were: problems in the production of offshore equipment/structures, leading to delays and cost overruns; shortage of workforce; unproductive investments of the oil companies in the local industry and in the economy as in general; the bankruptcy of important local companies in different levels of the supply chain; and the fact that oil companies withdraw their application of rounds, because of excess of requirement and control of the authorities over the production of O&G. Some countries implementing policies to develop the O&G supply chain nowadays, such as Brazil and Mexico, are also facing similar difficulties as Norway had in the past. In this vein, the aim of this article is to withdraw some lessons from the Norwegian policies to develop the O&G industry, especially its supply chain. The main lesson that we believe that are still to be learned, from the Norwegian oil experience, is that it is possible to build a broad and competitive O&G supply chain, but it won´t be so easy to have again the internal and external favourable scenario, that was key to this success case. Therefore, we believe that the countriesámbition with the policies to develop the O&G supply chain should be aligned with its potential to succeed, and for that a right perception of the international and internal environment status and changes is of high importance.

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Drafts by Breno Medeiros

The Challenges for Brazil in the New Oil and Gas Landscape. A policy brief.

The discovery of the Presalt bounty has repositioned Brazil in the global oil and gas scenery. Fr... more The discovery of the Presalt bounty has repositioned Brazil in the global oil and gas scenery. From an oil and gas importer, Brazil has now the potential to become a large oil producer. Nevertheless, to turn this potential into reality, Brazil will have to face important challenges to
mobilize the necessary financial, technological and human resources, in a new and unfavorable external and domestic environment.
After the liberalization of the Brazilian oil and gas (O&G) industry in the late 1990s, the level of investments has increased at a very fast pace until 2013. The investment dynamics during this period was characterized by the increase in the number of players in the industry, but maintaining Petrobras dominance. A new phase of the Brazilian oil and gas started after the dramatic decrease in oil and gas prices in second half of 2014. Petrobras’ severe financial crisis will give a larger role for private players in the Brazilian oil and gas sector. However, the future role of the private investors will depend very much on the attractiveness of Brazilian upstream sector.
This paper analyzes the necessary measures to restore a healthy investment environment in the Brazilian O&G industry. After analyzing the barriers to the investment in the O&G industry in Brazil, we set a roadmap to increase the country’s upstream attractiveness, which includes:
 Reducing the restrictions to the private investment in Presalt;
 Reducing the regulatory costs associated with the diversity of contracts and fiscal
regimes;
 Adjusting government take to the current international O&G sector conditions;
 Returning to regular E&P bidding rounds;
 Improving the local content regulatory framework;
 Addressing some regulatory and market barriers for private producers to access the
natural gas market; and lastly,
 Reducing the risk for private investors to enter the downstream sector with the
introduction of competition within a transparent fuel price environment.

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POLICIES TO DEVELOP THE OIL AND GAS SUPPLY CHAIN: ESSAYS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE LESSONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE NORWEGIAN EXPERIENCE TO BRAZIL

Download

Tapping the Bounty: Challenges to Restore the Investments in the Brazilian Oil Industry

BIODIESEL NO RIO GRANDE DO SUL COMPETITIVIDADE, SUSTENTABILIDADE E TENDÊNCIAS

Download

Challenges with Production Sharing Contracts in Brazil: What the International Experience and Literature Review Can Tell Us?

Offshore Technology Conference Brasil

Investimento direto estrangeiro, transbordamentos e produtividade industrial : teorias, evidências e políticas aplicadas ao caso brasileiro

Non-technical Risk in Exploration and Production in Brazil: an Approach to Quantify and Manage it

by Breno Medeiros, Matheus Pereira, and Mateus Tavares

Rio Oil & Gas Conference 2018, 2018