Edited by Brad Gilmour and Andrzej Kwieciński, the volume "Environment, Water Resources and ... more Edited by Brad Gilmour and Andrzej Kwieciński, the volume "Environment, Water Resources and Agricultural Policies: Lessons from China and OECD Countries" contains a set of expert papers on how to improve water management. The Executive Summary (attached) captures the essence of discussion and main conclusions from the papers. China’s leaders face the daunting challenge of feeding the world’s largest population with limited resources. China’s per capita endowment of arable land is low and water scarcity is of particular concern. Not only is China’s endowment of water resources extremely low, but it is also badly distributed, with the North China Plain having one of the lowest per capita endowments in the world. The serious water shortage is exacerbated by poor efficiency in its use and contradictions in the way water is allocated and managed. Water pollution is contributing to water shortages as well as increasing the cost of provision of water for agriculture. Since agriculture is the main consumer of water and one of the main users of land resources, China’s future development critically depends on initiatives that will raise the efficiency and efficacy of the use of these resources. In June 2006, the OECD and the Chinese Government invited specialists and experts with a wide range of expertise to address these issues and to provide answers to the following questions: •How can balance be achieved between the objectives of expanding food production, raising rural welfare, opening up the domestic market to international trade and protecting the environment? •How might policy measures be changed or shifted towards market based policy instruments to ensure that polluters pay and providers of environmental benefits are rewarded? •What would be the best policy mix in China combining taxes and payments, regulations, and voluntary and stakeholder participation in watershed and land resource management to further environmental and social objectives, and long term sustainability? These questions and issues were debated on the basis of the papers reproduced in this publication. They offer the reader timely analytical and policy thinking by a number of highly regarded experts on China’s agri-environmental issues and policies.
This note examines European Union (EU) institutions and policy making processes in relation to it... more This note examines European Union (EU) institutions and policy making processes in relation to its agriculture and food sector. With a market comprised of 495 million people across 27 countries and a comprehensive agricultural policy accounting for the largest share of the EU budget, how the EU policy environment functions is important to Canada. Decisions are made at the supranational EU level for agriculture, fisheries, trade, and regional development, while decision-making related to other policies occurs at the individual country level or through a system of inter-governmental cooperation. Decision-making occurs in three institutions: the Commission, the Council and the Parliament. Agriculture negotiations typically begin with a text drafted by the Council. Then the Commissioner for Agriculture works with national-level farm ministers to prepare a final text. Council decisions are voted on by member states' ministers. A qualified majority of a minimum of 74% of votes must be...
Abstract With just under 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second most populous countr... more Abstract With just under 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second most populous country. India possesses the world's second largest arable land area and the largest area under irrigation. India now ranks third worldwide in terms of the value of agri-food production, trailing only China and the European Union. In this paper, we use an interdisciplinary approach to assess prospects for India's production, consumption and trade in agri-food products for the next decade. Key drivers and determinants include the expansion of enabling infrastructure, water governance and prospective physical and institutional improvements to India's value chain.
As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008,... more As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008, there is much evidence of the Agreement’s benefits to all three members in the forms of the agricultural trade expansion within the region and the growth of foreign direct investments in members’ agri-food value chains. Better coordination would help the three governments to successfully address ongoing challenges such as trade disputes, security measures and animal health diseases. It would also help their economies and the agricultural sectors to continue capitalizing on opportunities that freer trade offers.
Since 2007, there has been much preoccupation with volatility in the world’s agri-food markets. T... more Since 2007, there has been much preoccupation with volatility in the world’s agri-food markets. This is due, in part, to well-intended concern over food and nutritional security in poor nations and households. However, a preoccupation and analytical framework revolving around volatility leads to misdiagnosis and, thereby, mis-prescription and significant misdirection of resources and effort. In this exploratory discussion, we encourage some recalibration … hoping to move the framework and the discussion and the focus of efforts beyond commodity market volatility … to ways and means of fostering resilience within agri-food systems and households, through greater understanding and emphasis on the underlying causes or shocks to the system Viewing volatility as the key problem to be “managed” stems from a premise that shocks are an intermittent, abnormal phenomena. Attempts to moderate volatility imply that convergence to a new, stable equilibrium for natural systems can somehow be acce...
Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on th... more Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on the efficiency, commercial orientation, and responsiveness of China’s transportation system and intermediaries in the agri-food value chain. To provide context, we first examine the role that demographics play as a driver of growth and change in China’s agri-food sector and the economy at large. Two main findings stand out: (i) China’s population will become increasingly urban over the next 50 years; (ii) China’s economic “demographic dividend ” will expire in the late 2020s. These two demographic drivers motivate the discussion that follows. An increasingly urban population means that China’s society and economy must continue to evolve from one based on subsistence and local conditions to one that is market based and responsive. But a market economy also requires a wellfunctioning, efficient and responsive transportation and handling network. China’s transportation infrastructure has been...
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie, 1987
This paper examines the relationship between the price for Canadian wheat and the price for U.S. ... more This paper examines the relationship between the price for Canadian wheat and the price for U.S. wheat. While a great deal of the variation in the Canadian series can be attributed to oscillations in either the exchange rate or the U.S. price of wheat, changing technologies, shifting market power, the marketing strategies of major market participants, and domestic market conditions are also seen to play a role in the price determination process and should be considered when making longer-term forecasts. The fact that the most encompassing price linkage specifications identified in this study differ significanty from the specification in a number of forecasting models in use today should be a point of particular concern. Since many of the decision equations (area seeded, inputs purchased, etc.) in place in these models essentially are driven off the Canada U.S. price linkage equation, the observed misspecification may have a detrimental impact on all forecasted series.Les auteurs exa...
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie, 1998
This paper examines recent demand systems literature from a methodological standpoint. A survey o... more This paper examines recent demand systems literature from a methodological standpoint. A survey of the empirical demand systems literature has been assembled that includes 66 articles from 19 separate journals. The paper classifies empirical demand studies according to different methodological paradigms to ascertain if there is a pattern in the demand systems literature and to determine the implications of that classification. The results indicate that the bulk (67%) of demand systems research is implicitly falsificationist (for at least part of the research program). The remainder of the research program follows a conventionalist doctrine.Nous passons en revue la bibliographie récente sur les systèmes empiriques de demandes au point de vue méthodologie. Ce survol couvre 66 articles provenant de 19 différentes revues. Nous classifions les études empiriques sur la demande selon différents paradigmes méthodologiques dans le but de voir si ces publications suivent une tendance détermin...
Australia is a significant player in world trade for several commodities and agriculture is a vit... more Australia is a significant player in world trade for several commodities and agriculture is a vital part of the Australian economy. Around 60% of Australia is devoted to agriculture, with three broad zones in which agricultural activity occurs. These are referred to as the pastoral, wheat–sheep, and high rainfall zones. Australia had only about 130,000 commercial farms in 2005, so average farm size is high. Australia's agriculture is market driven and export-oriented. For some products, aggregations for values of production and for export values are not directly comparable because export values reflect the value of more highly processed products such as sugar and wine. Overall, about 65% of agricultural production is exported, representing about 25% of total merchandise exports. The processed agrifood products share of total merchandise exports has doubled since 1986-88. Between 1986-88 and 2002-04, the support to producers in Australia decreased from 8% to 4% of the total value...
Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on th... more Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on the efficiency, commercial orientation, and responsiveness of China’s transportation system and intermediaries in the agri-food value chain. To provide context, we first examine the role that demographics play as a driver of growth and change in China’s agri-food sector and the economy at large. Two main findings stand out: (i) China’s population will become increasingly urban over the next 50 years; (ii) China’s economic “demographic dividend” will expire in the late 2020s. These two demographic drivers motivate the discussion that follows. An increasingly urban population means that China’s society and economy must continue to evolve from one based on subsistence and local conditions to one that is market based and responsive. But a market economy also requires a wellfunctioning, efficient and responsive transportation and handling network. China’s transportation infrastructure has been ...
As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008,... more As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008, there is much evidence of the Agreement’s benefits to all three members in the forms of the agricultural trade expansion within the region and the growth of foreign direct investments in members’ agri-food value chains. Better coordination would help the three governments to successfully address ongoing challenges such as trade disputes, security measures and animal health diseases. It would also help their economies and the agricultural sectors to continue capitalizing on opportunities that freer trade offers.
Edited by Brad Gilmour and Andrzej Kwieciński, the volume "Environment, Water Resources and ... more Edited by Brad Gilmour and Andrzej Kwieciński, the volume "Environment, Water Resources and Agricultural Policies: Lessons from China and OECD Countries" contains a set of expert papers on how to improve water management. The Executive Summary (attached) captures the essence of discussion and main conclusions from the papers. China’s leaders face the daunting challenge of feeding the world’s largest population with limited resources. China’s per capita endowment of arable land is low and water scarcity is of particular concern. Not only is China’s endowment of water resources extremely low, but it is also badly distributed, with the North China Plain having one of the lowest per capita endowments in the world. The serious water shortage is exacerbated by poor efficiency in its use and contradictions in the way water is allocated and managed. Water pollution is contributing to water shortages as well as increasing the cost of provision of water for agriculture. Since agriculture is the main consumer of water and one of the main users of land resources, China’s future development critically depends on initiatives that will raise the efficiency and efficacy of the use of these resources. In June 2006, the OECD and the Chinese Government invited specialists and experts with a wide range of expertise to address these issues and to provide answers to the following questions: •How can balance be achieved between the objectives of expanding food production, raising rural welfare, opening up the domestic market to international trade and protecting the environment? •How might policy measures be changed or shifted towards market based policy instruments to ensure that polluters pay and providers of environmental benefits are rewarded? •What would be the best policy mix in China combining taxes and payments, regulations, and voluntary and stakeholder participation in watershed and land resource management to further environmental and social objectives, and long term sustainability? These questions and issues were debated on the basis of the papers reproduced in this publication. They offer the reader timely analytical and policy thinking by a number of highly regarded experts on China’s agri-environmental issues and policies.
This note examines European Union (EU) institutions and policy making processes in relation to it... more This note examines European Union (EU) institutions and policy making processes in relation to its agriculture and food sector. With a market comprised of 495 million people across 27 countries and a comprehensive agricultural policy accounting for the largest share of the EU budget, how the EU policy environment functions is important to Canada. Decisions are made at the supranational EU level for agriculture, fisheries, trade, and regional development, while decision-making related to other policies occurs at the individual country level or through a system of inter-governmental cooperation. Decision-making occurs in three institutions: the Commission, the Council and the Parliament. Agriculture negotiations typically begin with a text drafted by the Council. Then the Commissioner for Agriculture works with national-level farm ministers to prepare a final text. Council decisions are voted on by member states' ministers. A qualified majority of a minimum of 74% of votes must be...
Abstract With just under 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second most populous countr... more Abstract With just under 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second most populous country. India possesses the world's second largest arable land area and the largest area under irrigation. India now ranks third worldwide in terms of the value of agri-food production, trailing only China and the European Union. In this paper, we use an interdisciplinary approach to assess prospects for India's production, consumption and trade in agri-food products for the next decade. Key drivers and determinants include the expansion of enabling infrastructure, water governance and prospective physical and institutional improvements to India's value chain.
As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008,... more As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008, there is much evidence of the Agreement’s benefits to all three members in the forms of the agricultural trade expansion within the region and the growth of foreign direct investments in members’ agri-food value chains. Better coordination would help the three governments to successfully address ongoing challenges such as trade disputes, security measures and animal health diseases. It would also help their economies and the agricultural sectors to continue capitalizing on opportunities that freer trade offers.
Since 2007, there has been much preoccupation with volatility in the world’s agri-food markets. T... more Since 2007, there has been much preoccupation with volatility in the world’s agri-food markets. This is due, in part, to well-intended concern over food and nutritional security in poor nations and households. However, a preoccupation and analytical framework revolving around volatility leads to misdiagnosis and, thereby, mis-prescription and significant misdirection of resources and effort. In this exploratory discussion, we encourage some recalibration … hoping to move the framework and the discussion and the focus of efforts beyond commodity market volatility … to ways and means of fostering resilience within agri-food systems and households, through greater understanding and emphasis on the underlying causes or shocks to the system Viewing volatility as the key problem to be “managed” stems from a premise that shocks are an intermittent, abnormal phenomena. Attempts to moderate volatility imply that convergence to a new, stable equilibrium for natural systems can somehow be acce...
Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on th... more Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on the efficiency, commercial orientation, and responsiveness of China’s transportation system and intermediaries in the agri-food value chain. To provide context, we first examine the role that demographics play as a driver of growth and change in China’s agri-food sector and the economy at large. Two main findings stand out: (i) China’s population will become increasingly urban over the next 50 years; (ii) China’s economic “demographic dividend ” will expire in the late 2020s. These two demographic drivers motivate the discussion that follows. An increasingly urban population means that China’s society and economy must continue to evolve from one based on subsistence and local conditions to one that is market based and responsive. But a market economy also requires a wellfunctioning, efficient and responsive transportation and handling network. China’s transportation infrastructure has been...
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie, 1987
This paper examines the relationship between the price for Canadian wheat and the price for U.S. ... more This paper examines the relationship between the price for Canadian wheat and the price for U.S. wheat. While a great deal of the variation in the Canadian series can be attributed to oscillations in either the exchange rate or the U.S. price of wheat, changing technologies, shifting market power, the marketing strategies of major market participants, and domestic market conditions are also seen to play a role in the price determination process and should be considered when making longer-term forecasts. The fact that the most encompassing price linkage specifications identified in this study differ significanty from the specification in a number of forecasting models in use today should be a point of particular concern. Since many of the decision equations (area seeded, inputs purchased, etc.) in place in these models essentially are driven off the Canada U.S. price linkage equation, the observed misspecification may have a detrimental impact on all forecasted series.Les auteurs exa...
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie, 1998
This paper examines recent demand systems literature from a methodological standpoint. A survey o... more This paper examines recent demand systems literature from a methodological standpoint. A survey of the empirical demand systems literature has been assembled that includes 66 articles from 19 separate journals. The paper classifies empirical demand studies according to different methodological paradigms to ascertain if there is a pattern in the demand systems literature and to determine the implications of that classification. The results indicate that the bulk (67%) of demand systems research is implicitly falsificationist (for at least part of the research program). The remainder of the research program follows a conventionalist doctrine.Nous passons en revue la bibliographie récente sur les systèmes empiriques de demandes au point de vue méthodologie. Ce survol couvre 66 articles provenant de 19 différentes revues. Nous classifions les études empiriques sur la demande selon différents paradigmes méthodologiques dans le but de voir si ces publications suivent une tendance détermin...
Australia is a significant player in world trade for several commodities and agriculture is a vit... more Australia is a significant player in world trade for several commodities and agriculture is a vital part of the Australian economy. Around 60% of Australia is devoted to agriculture, with three broad zones in which agricultural activity occurs. These are referred to as the pastoral, wheat–sheep, and high rainfall zones. Australia had only about 130,000 commercial farms in 2005, so average farm size is high. Australia's agriculture is market driven and export-oriented. For some products, aggregations for values of production and for export values are not directly comparable because export values reflect the value of more highly processed products such as sugar and wine. Overall, about 65% of agricultural production is exported, representing about 25% of total merchandise exports. The processed agrifood products share of total merchandise exports has doubled since 1986-88. Between 1986-88 and 2002-04, the support to producers in Australia decreased from 8% to 4% of the total value...
Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on th... more Our main purpose is to discuss how prospects for China’s agri-food sector critically depend on the efficiency, commercial orientation, and responsiveness of China’s transportation system and intermediaries in the agri-food value chain. To provide context, we first examine the role that demographics play as a driver of growth and change in China’s agri-food sector and the economy at large. Two main findings stand out: (i) China’s population will become increasingly urban over the next 50 years; (ii) China’s economic “demographic dividend” will expire in the late 2020s. These two demographic drivers motivate the discussion that follows. An increasingly urban population means that China’s society and economy must continue to evolve from one based on subsistence and local conditions to one that is market based and responsive. But a market economy also requires a wellfunctioning, efficient and responsive transportation and handling network. China’s transportation infrastructure has been ...
As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008,... more As the remaining agriculture-related NAFTA clauses became fully implemented on January 1st, 2008, there is much evidence of the Agreement’s benefits to all three members in the forms of the agricultural trade expansion within the region and the growth of foreign direct investments in members’ agri-food value chains. Better coordination would help the three governments to successfully address ongoing challenges such as trade disputes, security measures and animal health diseases. It would also help their economies and the agricultural sectors to continue capitalizing on opportunities that freer trade offers.
0 0 2 -2 0 0 3 1 Fo r e w o r d 2 C o o r d i n a t o r s a n d Fo r e c a s t i n g Pa n e l 4 M... more 0 0 2 -2 0 0 3 1 Fo r e w o r d 2 C o o r d i n a t o r s a n d Fo r e c a s t i n g Pa n e l 4 M a k i n g t h e
S P o n S o r S the Pacific Food System Outlook extends thanks to its sponsors. for information a... more S P o n S o r S the Pacific Food System Outlook extends thanks to its sponsors. for information about the activities of our sponsors, see page 26. first published in Singapore in 2009 by iSEaS Publishing institute of Southeast asian Studies 30 Heng mui keng terrace Pasir Panjang
0 0 3 -2 0 0 4 1 Fo r e w o r d 2 C o o r d i n a t o r s a n d Fo r e c a s t i n g Pa n e l 4 W... more 0 0 3 -2 0 0 4 1 Fo r e w o r d 2 C o o r d i n a t o r s a n d Fo r e c a s t i n g Pa n e l 4 W h e r e D e m o g ra p h i c s W i l l Ta ke t h e Fo o d Sys te m 6
P a c i f i c E c o n o m i c c o o P E r a t i o n c o u n c i l P a c i f i c f o o d S y S t E... more P a c i f i c E c o n o m i c c o o P E r a t i o n c o u n c i l P a c i f i c f o o d S y S t E m o u t l o o k 2 0 0 8 -2 0 0 9 Climate Change and the Food SyStem P a c i f i c f o o d S y S t E m o u t l o o k 2 0 0 8 -2 0 0 9 Climate Change and the Food SyStem P a c i f i c E c o n o m i c c o o P E r a t i o n c o u n c i l P a c i f i c f o o d S y S t e m o u t l o o k 2 0 0 8 -2 0 0 9 1
COVID 19 PANDEMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ASEAN FOOD CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION & AGRICULTURE TRADE, 2021
This Power Point Presentation was used to facilitate discussion and brainstorming among ASEAN Sen... more This Power Point Presentation was used to facilitate discussion and brainstorming among ASEAN Senior Officials in December 2020.
As the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to spread worldwide, the global economy is falling into recession. In the absence of a functioning, targeted and widely distributed vaccine, precautions taken to limit the spread and severity of the coronavirus have, to a large degree, curtailed peoples’ movements and economic activity, driving many economies into recession.
Like other regions worldwide, ASEAN has felt the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on its peoples’ health, economy, and general well-being. Among these, the agriculture and food trade sector play a critical role within the economy and health and well-being of the society. In this context, the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, in collaboration with the Senior Officials Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (SOM-AMAF), undertook an overview study of the pandemic implications on agriculture and food trade in ASEAN.
This presentation and an associated larger study assess and discuss ways and means of limiting the COVID-19 pandemic’s adverse impacts on food security and disruptions to trade and agri-food value chains within the ASEAN region. It identifies three broad categories of actions – immediate action, short-term action, and long-term effort – to help guide ASEAN’s regional policy on post–COVID-19 recovery.
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Papers by Brad Gilmour
As the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to spread worldwide, the global economy is falling into recession. In the absence of a functioning, targeted and widely distributed vaccine, precautions taken to limit the spread and severity of the coronavirus have, to a large degree, curtailed peoples’ movements and economic activity, driving many economies into recession.
Like other regions worldwide, ASEAN has felt the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on its peoples’ health, economy, and general well-being. Among these, the agriculture and food trade sector play a critical role within the economy and health and well-being of the society. In this context, the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, in collaboration with the Senior Officials Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (SOM-AMAF), undertook an overview study of the pandemic implications on agriculture and food trade in ASEAN.
This presentation and an associated larger study assess and discuss ways and means of limiting the COVID-19 pandemic’s adverse impacts on food security and disruptions to trade and agri-food value chains within the ASEAN region. It identifies three broad categories of actions – immediate action, short-term action, and long-term effort – to help guide ASEAN’s regional policy on post–COVID-19 recovery.