A better understanding of the long-term factors that independently predict poorer quality of life... more A better understanding of the long-term factors that independently predict poorer quality of life following mild to moderate musculoskeletal injuries is needed. We aimed to establish the predictors of quality of life (including sociodemographic, health, psychosocial, and pre-injury factors) 24 months after a noncatastrophic road traffic injury. In a prospective cohort study of 252 participants with mild/moderate injury sustained in a road traffic crash, quality of life was measured 24 months following the baseline survey. A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on various potential explanatory variables. Health-related quality of life was measured using the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form-12 (SF-12). Multivariable linear regression analyses determined the associations between explanatory variables and quality of life measures. Mean SF-12 physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores...
Research suggests that exposure to the compensation system (including time to case closure) could... more Research suggests that exposure to the compensation system (including time to case closure) could adversely influence a persons' recovery following injury. However, the long-term predictors of time to claim closure following minor road traffic injuries remain unclear. We aimed to assess a wide spectrum of factors that could influence time to claim closure (socio-demographic, compensation-related, health, psychosocial and pre-injury factors) over 24 months following a non-catastrophic injury. Prospective cohort study of 364 participants involved in a compensation scheme following a motor vehicle crash. We used a telephone-administered questionnaire to obtain information on potential explanatory variables. Information on time to claim closure was obtained from an insurance regulatory authority maintained database, and was classified as the duration between the crash date and claim settlement date, and categorized into < 12 (early), > 12-24 (medium) and > 24 months (late)....
Persistent pain, impaired mobility and function, and reduced quality of life and mental well-bein... more Persistent pain, impaired mobility and function, and reduced quality of life and mental well-being are the most common experiences associated with musculoskeletal conditions, of which there are more than 150 types. The prevalence and impact of musculoskeletal conditions increase with aging. A profound burden of musculoskeletal disease exists in developed and developing nations. Notably, this burden far exceeds service capacity. Population growth, aging, and sedentary lifestyles, particularly in developing countries, will create a crisis for population health that requires a multisystem response with musculoskeletal health services as a critical component. Globally, there is an emphasis on maintaining an active lifestyle to reduce the impacts of obesity, cardiovascular conditions, cancer, osteoporosis, and diabetes in older people. Painful musculoskeletal conditions, however, profoundly limit the ability of people to make these lifestyle changes. A strong relationship exists between ...
Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression,... more Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression, anxiety and stress with the short version (21 items) of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21) in elderly patients (age > 60 years) with persistent pain.
This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate whether there are differences in health outcom... more This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate whether there are differences in health outcomes among persons with mild or moderate injuries who were hospitalised compared with those not hospitalised following a road traffic crash. Sydney Metropolitan, New South Wales, Australia. Persons aged ≥18 years involved in a motor vehicle crash were surveyed at baseline (n=364), and at 12 (n=284) and 24 months (n=252). A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on a range of socioeconomic, and preinjury and postinjury psychological and heath characteristics of all participants. Participants who reported admission to hospital for 24 h or more (but less than 7 days) after the crash were classified as being hospitalised; those admitted for less than 24 h were classified as non-hospitalised. Around 1 in 5 participants (19.0%) were hospitalised for ≥24 h after the crash. After adjusting for age and sex, hospitalised participants compared with those not hospitalised had approx...
Background: We sought to identify the role of pre-injury socio-demographic and health characteris... more Background: We sought to identify the role of pre-injury socio-demographic and health characteristics, and injury severity in determining health-related quality-of-life outcomes for mild to moderate injuries 2 months after a motor vehicle crash in a compensable setting. Methods: People aged 17 years and older, injured with a New Injury Severity Score of 8 or less, in a motor vehicle crash in New South Wales and who had registered a claim with the Compulsory Third Party Insurance scheme from March to December 2010 were contacted to participate in the study. Information for 364 eligible participants was primarily collected through telephone interview, approximately 2 months after injury. Results: Substantial proportions of participants continued to have adverse outcomes approximately 2 months after their injury with mean Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) physical component score of 36.7 (SD ±10.3), SF-12 mental component score of 46.6 (SD ±11), Euro Qol (EQ) analogue scale score of 65.8 (SD ±18) and Euro Qol five dimension (EQ-5D) summary score of 0.70 (SD ±10). Key factors predicting adverse outcomes were prior chronic illness, obesity, hospitalisation and self-perceived threat to life due to injury. Conclusions: This study highlights the substantial impact of apparently "minor" motor vehicle crash injuries in a compensable setting and suggests targets for studies of tertiary prevention to improve health-related quality-of-life outcomes.
Given the aging demographics of most developed countries, understanding the public health impact ... more Given the aging demographics of most developed countries, understanding the public health impact of mild/moderate road traffic crash injuries in older adults is important. We aimed to determine whether health outcomes (pain severity and quality of life measures) over 24 months differ significantly between older (65+) and younger adults (18-64). Prospective cohort study of 364, 284 and 252 participants with mild/moderate injury following a vehicle collision at baseline, 12 and 24 months, respectively. A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on socio-economic, pre- and post-injury psychological and heath characteristics. At baseline, there were 55 (15.1%) and 309 (84.9%) participants aged ≥65 and 18-64 years, respectively. At 12- and 24-month follow-up, older compared to younger participants who had sustained a mild/moderate musculoskeletal injury had lower physical functioning (3.9-units lower Short Form-12 Physical Composite Score, multivariable-adjusted p = 0.03...
In this essay, we describe two recent developments in global public health efforts in the chronic... more In this essay, we describe two recent developments in global public health efforts in the chronic pain field and use the example of musculoskeletal pain to explore some of the implications arising from these developments. The first is the recognition of chronic pain as a condition in its own right, which has been the impetus for several national and one recent international pain summits that have translated that into a call for recognition, rights and resources for people with pain. The other development is the first comprehensive attempt to measure the global burden of musculoskeletal conditions in the current round of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2010). In essence, the task here has been to translate epidemiological data from all countries where data are available into standardised measures of the overall burden of musculoskeletal conditions to allow comparison of the burden relative to other conditions, and to identify the proportion of the burden that is attributable to a set of common risk factors. Past rounds of the GBD have been influential in priority setting and allocation of health funding by the World Health Organisation and national governments. The current GBD 2010 Study is occurring in the context of changes in thinking about how to fund health care in a global context. These changes are away from diseasespecific programmes to more 'integrated' approaches, and thus represent a potential challenge to the calls to consider pain-focussed funding. We explore the strategic implications of both of these developments for translating our better understanding of the problem of musculoskeletal pain into effective policy action.
The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the strengths, limitations and lessons l... more The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the strengths, limitations and lessons learned from estimating the burden from musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (GBD 2010 Study). It should be read in conjunction with the other GBD 2010 Study papers published in this journal. The strengths of the GBD 2010 Study include: the involvement of a MSK expert group; development of new and more valid case definitions, functional health states, and disability weights to better reflect the MSK conditions; the extensive series of systematic reviews undertaken to obtain data to derive the burden estimates; and the use of a new, more advanced version of the disease-modelling software (DisMod-MR). Limitations include: many regions of the world did not have data; the extent of heterogeneity between included studies; and burden does not include broader aspects of life, such as participation and well-being. A number of lessons were learned. Ongoing in...
Best Practice & Research Clinical Rheumatology, 2014
This chapter summarises the global and regional prevalence, disability (Years Lived with Disabili... more This chapter summarises the global and regional prevalence, disability (Years Lived with Disability (YLDs)) and overall burden (Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)) and costs for the common musculoskeletal disorders including low back and neck pain, hip and knee osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, and a remaining combined group of other MSK conditions. The contribution of the role of pain in disability burden is introduced. Trends over time and predictions of increasing MSK disability with demographic changes are addressed and the particular challenges facing the developing world are highlighted.
Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide. Of those patients who present t... more Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide. Of those patients who present to primary care with acute LBP, 40% continue to report symptoms 3 months later and develop chronic LBP. Although it is possible to identify these patients early, effective interventions to improve their outcomes are not available. This double-blind (participant/outcome assessor) randomised controlled trial will investigate the efficacy of a brief educational approach to prevent chronic LBP in 'at-risk' individuals. Participants will be recruited from primary care practices in the Sydney metropolitan area. To be eligible for inclusion participants will be aged 18-75 years, with acute LBP (<4 weeks' duration) preceded by at least a 1 month pain-free period and at-risk of developing chronic LBP. Potential participants with chronic spinal pain and those with suspected serious spinal pathology will be excluded. Eligible participants who agree to take part will be randomly alloca...
European journal of pain (London, England), Jan 8, 2014
There is a paucity of prospective studies with long follow-up that have examined a wide range of ... more There is a paucity of prospective studies with long follow-up that have examined a wide range of correlates associated with persistent pain outcomes in persons who sustained a mild or moderate injury in a road traffic crash. This study aimed to establish the independent predictors of pain severity over 24 months. A total of 364, 284 and 252 persons with mild/moderate musculoskeletal injuries sustained in a vehicle-related crash participated in telephone interviews in the subacute phase, and at 12 and 24 months, respectively. The numeric rating scale (NRS) assessed pain severity. Pain-Related Self-Statements Scale-Catastrophizing (PRSS-Catastrophizing) and the Short Form Orebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (OMPSQ) were also administered. After multivariable adjustment, each 1 SD increase in Short Form-12 Physical Component Score (SF-12 PCS) in the subacute phase was associated with 0.73 (p = 0.002) and 1.11 (p < 0.0001) decrease in NRS scores after 12 and 24 months...
There is a lack of longitudinal studies with adequate sample size and follow-up period which have... more There is a lack of longitudinal studies with adequate sample size and follow-up period which have objectively assessed social outcomes among those with mild or moderate musculoskeletal injury or that are not limited to hospital inpatients. We aimed to address this gap by prospectively assessing the potential predictors of return to pre-injury work and daily activities. Persons with mild/moderate musculoskeletal injuries from a vehicle-related crash were surveyed within the first 3 months after the crash (baseline; n=364), and at 12 (n=284) and 24 months (n=252). Participants self-reported return to work, and whether it was return to full or modified duties at work. Analyses were restricted to 170 participants who reported being in pre-injury paid work and had provided information at either 12 months only or at both 12 and 24 months. Return to usual activities was assessed using the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) scale 'Usual Activities' dimension. Twenty-four ...
Introduction: Governments in different countries have committed to better use of evidence from re... more Introduction: Governments in different countries have committed to better use of evidence from research in policy. Although many programmes are directed at assisting agencies to better use research, there have been few tests of the effectiveness of such programmes. This paper describes the protocol for SPIRIT (Supporting Policy In health with Research: an Intervention Trial), a trial designed to test the effectiveness of a multifaceted programme to build organisational capacity for the use of research evidence in policy and programme development. The primary aim is to determine whether SPIRIT results in an increase in the extent to which research and research expertise is sought, appraised, generated and used in the development of specific policy products produced by health policy agencies.
Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression,... more Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression, anxiety and stress with the short version (21 items) of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21) in elderly patients (age > 60 years) with persistent pain.
Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both... more Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. Bill…
Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion... more Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Bill…
A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and... more A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Summary Background Quantifi cation of the disease burden caused by diff erent risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss diff erent to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
A better understanding of the long-term factors that independently predict poorer quality of life... more A better understanding of the long-term factors that independently predict poorer quality of life following mild to moderate musculoskeletal injuries is needed. We aimed to establish the predictors of quality of life (including sociodemographic, health, psychosocial, and pre-injury factors) 24 months after a noncatastrophic road traffic injury. In a prospective cohort study of 252 participants with mild/moderate injury sustained in a road traffic crash, quality of life was measured 24 months following the baseline survey. A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on various potential explanatory variables. Health-related quality of life was measured using the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form-12 (SF-12). Multivariable linear regression analyses determined the associations between explanatory variables and quality of life measures. Mean SF-12 physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores...
Research suggests that exposure to the compensation system (including time to case closure) could... more Research suggests that exposure to the compensation system (including time to case closure) could adversely influence a persons' recovery following injury. However, the long-term predictors of time to claim closure following minor road traffic injuries remain unclear. We aimed to assess a wide spectrum of factors that could influence time to claim closure (socio-demographic, compensation-related, health, psychosocial and pre-injury factors) over 24 months following a non-catastrophic injury. Prospective cohort study of 364 participants involved in a compensation scheme following a motor vehicle crash. We used a telephone-administered questionnaire to obtain information on potential explanatory variables. Information on time to claim closure was obtained from an insurance regulatory authority maintained database, and was classified as the duration between the crash date and claim settlement date, and categorized into < 12 (early), > 12-24 (medium) and > 24 months (late)....
Persistent pain, impaired mobility and function, and reduced quality of life and mental well-bein... more Persistent pain, impaired mobility and function, and reduced quality of life and mental well-being are the most common experiences associated with musculoskeletal conditions, of which there are more than 150 types. The prevalence and impact of musculoskeletal conditions increase with aging. A profound burden of musculoskeletal disease exists in developed and developing nations. Notably, this burden far exceeds service capacity. Population growth, aging, and sedentary lifestyles, particularly in developing countries, will create a crisis for population health that requires a multisystem response with musculoskeletal health services as a critical component. Globally, there is an emphasis on maintaining an active lifestyle to reduce the impacts of obesity, cardiovascular conditions, cancer, osteoporosis, and diabetes in older people. Painful musculoskeletal conditions, however, profoundly limit the ability of people to make these lifestyle changes. A strong relationship exists between ...
Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression,... more Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression, anxiety and stress with the short version (21 items) of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21) in elderly patients (age > 60 years) with persistent pain.
This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate whether there are differences in health outcom... more This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate whether there are differences in health outcomes among persons with mild or moderate injuries who were hospitalised compared with those not hospitalised following a road traffic crash. Sydney Metropolitan, New South Wales, Australia. Persons aged ≥18 years involved in a motor vehicle crash were surveyed at baseline (n=364), and at 12 (n=284) and 24 months (n=252). A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on a range of socioeconomic, and preinjury and postinjury psychological and heath characteristics of all participants. Participants who reported admission to hospital for 24 h or more (but less than 7 days) after the crash were classified as being hospitalised; those admitted for less than 24 h were classified as non-hospitalised. Around 1 in 5 participants (19.0%) were hospitalised for ≥24 h after the crash. After adjusting for age and sex, hospitalised participants compared with those not hospitalised had approx...
Background: We sought to identify the role of pre-injury socio-demographic and health characteris... more Background: We sought to identify the role of pre-injury socio-demographic and health characteristics, and injury severity in determining health-related quality-of-life outcomes for mild to moderate injuries 2 months after a motor vehicle crash in a compensable setting. Methods: People aged 17 years and older, injured with a New Injury Severity Score of 8 or less, in a motor vehicle crash in New South Wales and who had registered a claim with the Compulsory Third Party Insurance scheme from March to December 2010 were contacted to participate in the study. Information for 364 eligible participants was primarily collected through telephone interview, approximately 2 months after injury. Results: Substantial proportions of participants continued to have adverse outcomes approximately 2 months after their injury with mean Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) physical component score of 36.7 (SD ±10.3), SF-12 mental component score of 46.6 (SD ±11), Euro Qol (EQ) analogue scale score of 65.8 (SD ±18) and Euro Qol five dimension (EQ-5D) summary score of 0.70 (SD ±10). Key factors predicting adverse outcomes were prior chronic illness, obesity, hospitalisation and self-perceived threat to life due to injury. Conclusions: This study highlights the substantial impact of apparently "minor" motor vehicle crash injuries in a compensable setting and suggests targets for studies of tertiary prevention to improve health-related quality-of-life outcomes.
Given the aging demographics of most developed countries, understanding the public health impact ... more Given the aging demographics of most developed countries, understanding the public health impact of mild/moderate road traffic crash injuries in older adults is important. We aimed to determine whether health outcomes (pain severity and quality of life measures) over 24 months differ significantly between older (65+) and younger adults (18-64). Prospective cohort study of 364, 284 and 252 participants with mild/moderate injury following a vehicle collision at baseline, 12 and 24 months, respectively. A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on socio-economic, pre- and post-injury psychological and heath characteristics. At baseline, there were 55 (15.1%) and 309 (84.9%) participants aged ≥65 and 18-64 years, respectively. At 12- and 24-month follow-up, older compared to younger participants who had sustained a mild/moderate musculoskeletal injury had lower physical functioning (3.9-units lower Short Form-12 Physical Composite Score, multivariable-adjusted p = 0.03...
In this essay, we describe two recent developments in global public health efforts in the chronic... more In this essay, we describe two recent developments in global public health efforts in the chronic pain field and use the example of musculoskeletal pain to explore some of the implications arising from these developments. The first is the recognition of chronic pain as a condition in its own right, which has been the impetus for several national and one recent international pain summits that have translated that into a call for recognition, rights and resources for people with pain. The other development is the first comprehensive attempt to measure the global burden of musculoskeletal conditions in the current round of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2010). In essence, the task here has been to translate epidemiological data from all countries where data are available into standardised measures of the overall burden of musculoskeletal conditions to allow comparison of the burden relative to other conditions, and to identify the proportion of the burden that is attributable to a set of common risk factors. Past rounds of the GBD have been influential in priority setting and allocation of health funding by the World Health Organisation and national governments. The current GBD 2010 Study is occurring in the context of changes in thinking about how to fund health care in a global context. These changes are away from diseasespecific programmes to more 'integrated' approaches, and thus represent a potential challenge to the calls to consider pain-focussed funding. We explore the strategic implications of both of these developments for translating our better understanding of the problem of musculoskeletal pain into effective policy action.
The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the strengths, limitations and lessons l... more The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the strengths, limitations and lessons learned from estimating the burden from musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (GBD 2010 Study). It should be read in conjunction with the other GBD 2010 Study papers published in this journal. The strengths of the GBD 2010 Study include: the involvement of a MSK expert group; development of new and more valid case definitions, functional health states, and disability weights to better reflect the MSK conditions; the extensive series of systematic reviews undertaken to obtain data to derive the burden estimates; and the use of a new, more advanced version of the disease-modelling software (DisMod-MR). Limitations include: many regions of the world did not have data; the extent of heterogeneity between included studies; and burden does not include broader aspects of life, such as participation and well-being. A number of lessons were learned. Ongoing in...
Best Practice & Research Clinical Rheumatology, 2014
This chapter summarises the global and regional prevalence, disability (Years Lived with Disabili... more This chapter summarises the global and regional prevalence, disability (Years Lived with Disability (YLDs)) and overall burden (Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)) and costs for the common musculoskeletal disorders including low back and neck pain, hip and knee osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, and a remaining combined group of other MSK conditions. The contribution of the role of pain in disability burden is introduced. Trends over time and predictions of increasing MSK disability with demographic changes are addressed and the particular challenges facing the developing world are highlighted.
Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide. Of those patients who present t... more Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide. Of those patients who present to primary care with acute LBP, 40% continue to report symptoms 3 months later and develop chronic LBP. Although it is possible to identify these patients early, effective interventions to improve their outcomes are not available. This double-blind (participant/outcome assessor) randomised controlled trial will investigate the efficacy of a brief educational approach to prevent chronic LBP in 'at-risk' individuals. Participants will be recruited from primary care practices in the Sydney metropolitan area. To be eligible for inclusion participants will be aged 18-75 years, with acute LBP (<4 weeks' duration) preceded by at least a 1 month pain-free period and at-risk of developing chronic LBP. Potential participants with chronic spinal pain and those with suspected serious spinal pathology will be excluded. Eligible participants who agree to take part will be randomly alloca...
European journal of pain (London, England), Jan 8, 2014
There is a paucity of prospective studies with long follow-up that have examined a wide range of ... more There is a paucity of prospective studies with long follow-up that have examined a wide range of correlates associated with persistent pain outcomes in persons who sustained a mild or moderate injury in a road traffic crash. This study aimed to establish the independent predictors of pain severity over 24 months. A total of 364, 284 and 252 persons with mild/moderate musculoskeletal injuries sustained in a vehicle-related crash participated in telephone interviews in the subacute phase, and at 12 and 24 months, respectively. The numeric rating scale (NRS) assessed pain severity. Pain-Related Self-Statements Scale-Catastrophizing (PRSS-Catastrophizing) and the Short Form Orebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (OMPSQ) were also administered. After multivariable adjustment, each 1 SD increase in Short Form-12 Physical Component Score (SF-12 PCS) in the subacute phase was associated with 0.73 (p = 0.002) and 1.11 (p < 0.0001) decrease in NRS scores after 12 and 24 months...
There is a lack of longitudinal studies with adequate sample size and follow-up period which have... more There is a lack of longitudinal studies with adequate sample size and follow-up period which have objectively assessed social outcomes among those with mild or moderate musculoskeletal injury or that are not limited to hospital inpatients. We aimed to address this gap by prospectively assessing the potential predictors of return to pre-injury work and daily activities. Persons with mild/moderate musculoskeletal injuries from a vehicle-related crash were surveyed within the first 3 months after the crash (baseline; n=364), and at 12 (n=284) and 24 months (n=252). Participants self-reported return to work, and whether it was return to full or modified duties at work. Analyses were restricted to 170 participants who reported being in pre-injury paid work and had provided information at either 12 months only or at both 12 and 24 months. Return to usual activities was assessed using the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) scale 'Usual Activities' dimension. Twenty-four ...
Introduction: Governments in different countries have committed to better use of evidence from re... more Introduction: Governments in different countries have committed to better use of evidence from research in policy. Although many programmes are directed at assisting agencies to better use research, there have been few tests of the effectiveness of such programmes. This paper describes the protocol for SPIRIT (Supporting Policy In health with Research: an Intervention Trial), a trial designed to test the effectiveness of a multifaceted programme to build organisational capacity for the use of research evidence in policy and programme development. The primary aim is to determine whether SPIRIT results in an increase in the extent to which research and research expertise is sought, appraised, generated and used in the development of specific policy products produced by health policy agencies.
Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression,... more Objective. This study examined the assessment of the negative emotional constructs of depression, anxiety and stress with the short version (21 items) of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21) in elderly patients (age > 60 years) with persistent pain.
Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both... more Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. Bill…
Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion... more Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Bill…
A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and... more A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Summary Background Quantifi cation of the disease burden caused by diff erent risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss diff erent to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
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Papers by Fiona Blyth