Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent ... more Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent years, the transformation in domestic savings in Turkey has increased dependency on foreign savings. Therefore, the relationship between private, public and foreign savings has become a more significant and debatable issue for Turkey. This study investigates the relationship among private, public and foreign savings in Turkey from 1984 to 2014. This study analyzes the stability of the series using the multiple structural break unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003). Cointegration is examined using of Maki's (2012) cointegration test with multiple structural breaks, and cointegration coefficients are estimated using the dynamic ordinary least squares method. The analysis results indicate that there is a negative and incomplete Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis between private and public savings. Furthermore, it is determined that foreign savings have a negative, or substitutive, effect on private savings.
Uluslararası Avrasya ekonomileri konferansı, Jul 1, 2014
The presence of a relation between saving and investment which has been debated in the empirical ... more The presence of a relation between saving and investment which has been debated in the empirical literature following the pioneering of Feldstein-Horioka (1980) is paramount to the determination of economic policies. Feldstein-Horioka (1980) stated that the relationship between saving and investment depends on the degree of international capital mobility. A high correlation between saving and investment is often taken as evidence of capital immobility. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The model developed within the context of the theoretical framework was estimated by means of panel ARDL (auto-regressive distributed lag bound test) approach which is a panel vector error correction method using the data for Eurasian economics for the period 1992-2011. The data is taken from World Development Indicators. The short-run analysis supports the Feldstein-Horioko hypothesis and captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. Therefore, the Feldstein-Horioko correlations are not a puzzle for our sample because of the low correlation and high capital mobility.
Uluslararası Avrasya ekonomileri konferansı, Jul 1, 2014
A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have ... more A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970-2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank's Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.
Tarımsal ürün üretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanılmadan, tamamen doğal girdilerle yapılan... more Tarımsal ürün üretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanılmadan, tamamen doğal girdilerle yapılan ürün yetiştiriciliği organik tarım olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Artan nüfusa paralel olarak ortaya çıkabilecek gıda açığına karşı tarımsal üretimi artırmaya yönelik çeşitli uygulamalar yapılmış ve önemli gelişmeler kaydedilmiştir. Sağlıklı beslenme ve çevre sağlığı açısından oldukça önemli bir uygulama olan organik tarım üretim modeli ülkemizin birçok kırsal kesiminde yerine getirilmesine rağmen tarımsal üretimle uğraşan kişiler bu önemli ürünlerden yeterince kazanç elde edememektedirler. Bu durumun en önemli sebepleri üreticilerin ürettikleri ürün konusunda yeterince bilgi sahibi olmamaları ile ilişkili olarak üretim, işleme ve paketleme yöntemlerinin ürün kalitesi ve sağlığına uygun bir şekilde düzenlenememesi ile pazarlama imkânlarından yeterince faydalanamama gibi durumlardır. Organik tarımsal üretim açısından önemli bir potansiyele sahip olan yöresel ürünlerin uygun yöntemlerle üretilip işlenerek daha sağlıklı şartlarda tüketicilere sunulmalarının sağlanması durumunda kırsal kesimdeki tarımsal ürün yetiştiricilerinin elde edecekleri gelirde artış sağlanabileceği gibi insan ve çevre sağlığına da önemli katkılar sağlanacaktır.
Özet: Kamu borçlarının etkileri borcun kaynağı, vadesi, faiz oranı, kullanım şekli, miktarı gibi ... more Özet: Kamu borçlarının etkileri borcun kaynağı, vadesi, faiz oranı, kullanım şekli, miktarı gibi faktörlere bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Bu çalışmada, iç borçların gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiş ve borç göstergelerinde olumlu (olumsuz) değişimlerin yaşandığı dönemlerde gelir dağılımı göstergelerinde de olumlu (olumsuz) değişimlerin ortaya çıktığı görülmüştür. Bu nedenle, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümeyi esas alan, mutlak yoksulluğu giderici, göreceli yoksulluğu azaltıcı ve yoksul kesimleri ortalama refah seviyesine yaklaştıracak iktisadi, mali ve sosyal politikaların eşzamanlı ve etkin bir biçimde uygulanması gerekliliği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing ... more Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing countries have been studied from various angles. It is very often argued that direct investments have better implications for economic development and growth as they provide more stable and long-term resources. Foreign direct investment is also regarded to be a healthier means for financing current account deficits. However, widening current account deficits in most of the developing economies in the past few decades have brought about the question of implications of capital movements, including FDI, for those imbalances. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between current account balances and FDI in a group of developing economies by considering the channels for this relationship. To provide an empirical analysis, a panel Granger causality framework is employed with the data on FDI, exports and imports, by using the methodology developed by Konya (2006). The empirical results of the study do not provide conclusive results; the countries in the panel seem to have various links between FDI and international trade components.
Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2001
Özet: Her ülke bir [akım nedenlere ba~1ı olarak bazı dönemlerde enflasyon gibi ekonomik istikrars... more Özet: Her ülke bir [akım nedenlere ba~1ı olarak bazı dönemlerde enflasyon gibi ekonomik istikrarsızlık içine girebilir. Ancak bizim gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin uzun süreli bir istikrarsızlık içinde oldukları ve bu uzun süreli istikrarsızlık içinde kamu harcamalarının yanlış planlanması nedeniyle belli bazı dönemlerde ekonomik ve siyasal bunalım içine düştükleri görülmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu dönemlerde kamu harcamalarını kısma poliıikası gündeme gelmektedir. Kamu harcamalarının büyük bir kısmını transfer harcamaları teşkil ediyorsa bu konu daha da önem kazanınaktadır. Ülkemizde özellikle 80 sonrası ekonomi politikamızın temel hedefi olan enflasyonu makul bir düzeye indirme çabaları ile transfer harcamaları arasında sıkı bir bağ oldugu bilinen bir gerçektir. Bu çalışma kapsamlnda, transfer harcamaları ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki ve etkileşim incelenecektir.
Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, Sep 30, 2015
This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of external debt on economic gro... more This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of external debt on economic growth by using the data for moderately indebted middle-income countries over the period of 1985-2013. The paper employs a relatively recent panel analysis technique, the common correlated effects (CCE) framework, which considers cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity implications in the data. Our overall findings suggest a negative linear effect of external debt for the panel despite some exceptions in the country-specific results. In the panel results, the impact of external indebtedness occurs through the debt stock rather than a direct impact of liquidity constraint represented by a debt service variable. 1.INTRODUCTION During the 1950s and 1960s foreign resources were considered as significant for development and economic growth of less developed economies (e.g. Avromovic et al., 1964; Chenery and Strout, 1966) 1. It was argued that countries at early stages of development did not have sufficient resources that could be devoted to investment, which in turn, was crucial for economic development. External debt was seen as an important source of economic growth for developing economies through its impact on capital accumulation, human resource development and infrastructure improvement. As foreign aid and/or foreign debt were seen almost inevitable, many developing countries exerted external resources at an increasing rate. Most of these countries borrowed to compensate insufficiency of domestic savings and to meet foreign currency need for imports of intermediate and capital goods. As a result, their indebtedness intensified and reached critical levels, eventually resulting in foreign debt crises in a number of economies at the end of the 1970s or in the early 1980s. In the meanwhile, the share of private loans compared to official financing in total foreign indebtedness started 1 Although the Harrod-Domar model was not developed to offer solutions to the issues in the less developed economies, it was used by the economists who debated for the significance of external resources for those.
Tarimsal urun uretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanilmadan, tamamen dogal girdilerle yapilan... more Tarimsal urun uretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanilmadan, tamamen dogal girdilerle yapilan urun yetistiriciligi organik tarim olarak adlandirilmaktadir. Artan nufusa paralel olarak ortaya cikabilecek gida acigina karsi tarimsal uretimi artirmaya yonelik cesitli uygulamalar yapilmis ve onemli gelismeler kaydedilmistir. Saglikli beslenme ve cevre sagligi acisindan oldukca onemli bir uygulama olan organik tarim uretim modeli ulkemizin bircok kirsal kesiminde yerine getirilmesine ragmen tarimsal uretimle ugrasan kisiler bu onemli urunlerden yeterince kazanc elde edememektedirler. Bu durumun en onemli sebepleri ureticilerin urettikleri urun konusunda yeterince bilgi sahibi olmamalari ile iliskili olarak uretim, isleme ve paketleme yontemlerinin urun kalitesi ve sagligina uygun bir sekilde duzenlenememesi ile pazarlama imkânlarindan yeterince faydalanamama gibi durumlardir. Organik tarimsal uretim acisindan onemli bir potansiyele sahip olan yoresel urunlerin uygun yontemlerle ureti...
Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent ... more Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent years, the transformation in domestic savings in Turkey has increased dependency on foreign savings. Therefore, the relationship between private, public and foreign savings has become a more significant and debatable issue for Turkey. This study investigates the relationship among private, public and foreign savings in Turkey from 1984 to 2014. This study analyzes the stability of the series using the multiple structural break unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003). Cointegration is examined using of Maki's (2012) cointegration test with multiple structural breaks, and cointegration coefficients are estimated using the dynamic ordinary least squares method. The analysis results indicate that there is a negative and incomplete Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis between private and public savings. Furthermore, it is determined that foreign savings have a negative, or substitutive, effect on private savings.
Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing ... more Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing countries have been studied from various angles. It is very often argued that direct investments have better implications for economic development and growth as they provide more stable and long-term resources. Foreign direct investment is also regarded to be a healthier means for financing current account deficits. However, widening current account deficits in most of the developing economies in the past few decades have brought about the question of implications of capital movements, including FDI, for those imbalances. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between current account balances and FDI in a group of developing economies by considering the channels for this relationship. To provide an empirical analysis, a panel Granger causality framework is employed with the data on FDI, exports and imports, by using the methodology developed by Konya (2006). The empirical r...
Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent ... more Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent years, the transformation in domestic savings in Turkey has increased dependency on foreign savings. Therefore, the relationship between private, public and foreign savings has become a more significant and debatable issue for Turkey. This study investigates the relationship among private, public and foreign savings in Turkey from 1984 to 2014. This study analyzes the stability of the series using the multiple structural break unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003). Cointegration is examined using of Maki's (2012) cointegration test with multiple structural breaks, and cointegration coefficients are estimated using the dynamic ordinary least squares method. The analysis results indicate that there is a negative and incomplete Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis between private and public savings. Furthermore, it is determined that foreign savings have a negative, or substitutive, effect on private savings.
Uluslararası Avrasya ekonomileri konferansı, Jul 1, 2014
The presence of a relation between saving and investment which has been debated in the empirical ... more The presence of a relation between saving and investment which has been debated in the empirical literature following the pioneering of Feldstein-Horioka (1980) is paramount to the determination of economic policies. Feldstein-Horioka (1980) stated that the relationship between saving and investment depends on the degree of international capital mobility. A high correlation between saving and investment is often taken as evidence of capital immobility. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The model developed within the context of the theoretical framework was estimated by means of panel ARDL (auto-regressive distributed lag bound test) approach which is a panel vector error correction method using the data for Eurasian economics for the period 1992-2011. The data is taken from World Development Indicators. The short-run analysis supports the Feldstein-Horioko hypothesis and captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. Therefore, the Feldstein-Horioko correlations are not a puzzle for our sample because of the low correlation and high capital mobility.
Uluslararası Avrasya ekonomileri konferansı, Jul 1, 2014
A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have ... more A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970-2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank's Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.
Tarımsal ürün üretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanılmadan, tamamen doğal girdilerle yapılan... more Tarımsal ürün üretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanılmadan, tamamen doğal girdilerle yapılan ürün yetiştiriciliği organik tarım olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Artan nüfusa paralel olarak ortaya çıkabilecek gıda açığına karşı tarımsal üretimi artırmaya yönelik çeşitli uygulamalar yapılmış ve önemli gelişmeler kaydedilmiştir. Sağlıklı beslenme ve çevre sağlığı açısından oldukça önemli bir uygulama olan organik tarım üretim modeli ülkemizin birçok kırsal kesiminde yerine getirilmesine rağmen tarımsal üretimle uğraşan kişiler bu önemli ürünlerden yeterince kazanç elde edememektedirler. Bu durumun en önemli sebepleri üreticilerin ürettikleri ürün konusunda yeterince bilgi sahibi olmamaları ile ilişkili olarak üretim, işleme ve paketleme yöntemlerinin ürün kalitesi ve sağlığına uygun bir şekilde düzenlenememesi ile pazarlama imkânlarından yeterince faydalanamama gibi durumlardır. Organik tarımsal üretim açısından önemli bir potansiyele sahip olan yöresel ürünlerin uygun yöntemlerle üretilip işlenerek daha sağlıklı şartlarda tüketicilere sunulmalarının sağlanması durumunda kırsal kesimdeki tarımsal ürün yetiştiricilerinin elde edecekleri gelirde artış sağlanabileceği gibi insan ve çevre sağlığına da önemli katkılar sağlanacaktır.
Özet: Kamu borçlarının etkileri borcun kaynağı, vadesi, faiz oranı, kullanım şekli, miktarı gibi ... more Özet: Kamu borçlarının etkileri borcun kaynağı, vadesi, faiz oranı, kullanım şekli, miktarı gibi faktörlere bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Bu çalışmada, iç borçların gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiş ve borç göstergelerinde olumlu (olumsuz) değişimlerin yaşandığı dönemlerde gelir dağılımı göstergelerinde de olumlu (olumsuz) değişimlerin ortaya çıktığı görülmüştür. Bu nedenle, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümeyi esas alan, mutlak yoksulluğu giderici, göreceli yoksulluğu azaltıcı ve yoksul kesimleri ortalama refah seviyesine yaklaştıracak iktisadi, mali ve sosyal politikaların eşzamanlı ve etkin bir biçimde uygulanması gerekliliği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing ... more Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing countries have been studied from various angles. It is very often argued that direct investments have better implications for economic development and growth as they provide more stable and long-term resources. Foreign direct investment is also regarded to be a healthier means for financing current account deficits. However, widening current account deficits in most of the developing economies in the past few decades have brought about the question of implications of capital movements, including FDI, for those imbalances. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between current account balances and FDI in a group of developing economies by considering the channels for this relationship. To provide an empirical analysis, a panel Granger causality framework is employed with the data on FDI, exports and imports, by using the methodology developed by Konya (2006). The empirical results of the study do not provide conclusive results; the countries in the panel seem to have various links between FDI and international trade components.
Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2001
Özet: Her ülke bir [akım nedenlere ba~1ı olarak bazı dönemlerde enflasyon gibi ekonomik istikrars... more Özet: Her ülke bir [akım nedenlere ba~1ı olarak bazı dönemlerde enflasyon gibi ekonomik istikrarsızlık içine girebilir. Ancak bizim gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin uzun süreli bir istikrarsızlık içinde oldukları ve bu uzun süreli istikrarsızlık içinde kamu harcamalarının yanlış planlanması nedeniyle belli bazı dönemlerde ekonomik ve siyasal bunalım içine düştükleri görülmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu dönemlerde kamu harcamalarını kısma poliıikası gündeme gelmektedir. Kamu harcamalarının büyük bir kısmını transfer harcamaları teşkil ediyorsa bu konu daha da önem kazanınaktadır. Ülkemizde özellikle 80 sonrası ekonomi politikamızın temel hedefi olan enflasyonu makul bir düzeye indirme çabaları ile transfer harcamaları arasında sıkı bir bağ oldugu bilinen bir gerçektir. Bu çalışma kapsamlnda, transfer harcamaları ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki ve etkileşim incelenecektir.
Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, Sep 30, 2015
This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of external debt on economic gro... more This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of external debt on economic growth by using the data for moderately indebted middle-income countries over the period of 1985-2013. The paper employs a relatively recent panel analysis technique, the common correlated effects (CCE) framework, which considers cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity implications in the data. Our overall findings suggest a negative linear effect of external debt for the panel despite some exceptions in the country-specific results. In the panel results, the impact of external indebtedness occurs through the debt stock rather than a direct impact of liquidity constraint represented by a debt service variable. 1.INTRODUCTION During the 1950s and 1960s foreign resources were considered as significant for development and economic growth of less developed economies (e.g. Avromovic et al., 1964; Chenery and Strout, 1966) 1. It was argued that countries at early stages of development did not have sufficient resources that could be devoted to investment, which in turn, was crucial for economic development. External debt was seen as an important source of economic growth for developing economies through its impact on capital accumulation, human resource development and infrastructure improvement. As foreign aid and/or foreign debt were seen almost inevitable, many developing countries exerted external resources at an increasing rate. Most of these countries borrowed to compensate insufficiency of domestic savings and to meet foreign currency need for imports of intermediate and capital goods. As a result, their indebtedness intensified and reached critical levels, eventually resulting in foreign debt crises in a number of economies at the end of the 1970s or in the early 1980s. In the meanwhile, the share of private loans compared to official financing in total foreign indebtedness started 1 Although the Harrod-Domar model was not developed to offer solutions to the issues in the less developed economies, it was used by the economists who debated for the significance of external resources for those.
Tarimsal urun uretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanilmadan, tamamen dogal girdilerle yapilan... more Tarimsal urun uretim sistemlerinde kimyasal girdi kullanilmadan, tamamen dogal girdilerle yapilan urun yetistiriciligi organik tarim olarak adlandirilmaktadir. Artan nufusa paralel olarak ortaya cikabilecek gida acigina karsi tarimsal uretimi artirmaya yonelik cesitli uygulamalar yapilmis ve onemli gelismeler kaydedilmistir. Saglikli beslenme ve cevre sagligi acisindan oldukca onemli bir uygulama olan organik tarim uretim modeli ulkemizin bircok kirsal kesiminde yerine getirilmesine ragmen tarimsal uretimle ugrasan kisiler bu onemli urunlerden yeterince kazanc elde edememektedirler. Bu durumun en onemli sebepleri ureticilerin urettikleri urun konusunda yeterince bilgi sahibi olmamalari ile iliskili olarak uretim, isleme ve paketleme yontemlerinin urun kalitesi ve sagligina uygun bir sekilde duzenlenememesi ile pazarlama imkânlarindan yeterince faydalanamama gibi durumlardir. Organik tarimsal uretim acisindan onemli bir potansiyele sahip olan yoresel urunlerin uygun yontemlerle ureti...
Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent ... more Domestic savings are the primary sources of financing for sustainable economic growth. In recent years, the transformation in domestic savings in Turkey has increased dependency on foreign savings. Therefore, the relationship between private, public and foreign savings has become a more significant and debatable issue for Turkey. This study investigates the relationship among private, public and foreign savings in Turkey from 1984 to 2014. This study analyzes the stability of the series using the multiple structural break unit root test of Lee and Strazicich (2003). Cointegration is examined using of Maki's (2012) cointegration test with multiple structural breaks, and cointegration coefficients are estimated using the dynamic ordinary least squares method. The analysis results indicate that there is a negative and incomplete Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis between private and public savings. Furthermore, it is determined that foreign savings have a negative, or substitutive, effect on private savings.
Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing ... more Two main forms of capital movements, namely portfolio and direct investments, towards developing countries have been studied from various angles. It is very often argued that direct investments have better implications for economic development and growth as they provide more stable and long-term resources. Foreign direct investment is also regarded to be a healthier means for financing current account deficits. However, widening current account deficits in most of the developing economies in the past few decades have brought about the question of implications of capital movements, including FDI, for those imbalances. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between current account balances and FDI in a group of developing economies by considering the channels for this relationship. To provide an empirical analysis, a panel Granger causality framework is employed with the data on FDI, exports and imports, by using the methodology developed by Konya (2006). The empirical r...
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