Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part o... more Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part of this work. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot, therefore, guarantee that the reuse of third-party content does not infringe the copyright of the third party. If you wish to reuse any third-party content, you bear the risks associated with any such rights violations. You are responsible for determining whether there is a need to obtain permission for the use of third-party content, and if so, for obtaining the relevant permission from the copyright holder. Examples of third-party content may include, but are not limited to, tables, figures or images. Photo rights (further permission required for reuse): Any queries regarding rights and licences should be addressed to:
ABSTRACT VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes 1697 Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin Suomen en... more ABSTRACT VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes 1697 Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin Suomen energiajärjestelmän tulevaisuuden vaihtoehtoja parinkymmenen seuraavan vuoden aikana. Pyrkimyksenä on ollut selvittää erityisesti uusien energiantuotantotekniikoiden ja energian käyttöä tehostavien toimien merkitystä tulevaisuuden energiahuollossa sekä mahdollisuuksia energian tuotannon ja käytön päästöjen vähentämiseksi. Työn keskeisin apuväline on ollut Valtion teknillisessä tutkimuskeskuksessa (VTT) laadittu Suomen energiajärjestelmän malli, joka käsittää sekä energian tuotannon että kulutuksen kuvauksen valtakunnallisella tasolla. Tulevaisuuden vaihtoehtojen analysointi ja vertailu on tehty määrittelemällä erilaisia energiataloudellisia skenaarioita. Tarkastellut skenaariot eroavat toisistaan energiatekniikan kehitystä, biopolttoaineiden hintoja, metsäteollisuuden kehitysvaihtoehtoja, energiaveroja, hiilidioksidipäästöjen rajoittamista, energiansäästötoimia ja ydinvoiman lisärakentamista koskevissa oletuksissa. Keskeisesti energiatalouden muutoksiin vaikuttavasta hyötyenergian kulutuksesta ja siihen liittyvästä tehostamispotentiaalista on laadittu skenaarioita varten sektorikohtaiset kehitysarviot. Kulutuksen perusarvion lisäksi eräissä skenaarioissa on oletettu nopeampi tai hitaampi kulutuksen kasvu. Skenaariotulosten mukaan uusien energiantuotantotekniikoiden merkitys näkyy selvimmin yhteistuotantopotentiaalin voimakkaana kasvuna. Rakennussuhdetta nostamalla teollisuuden sähköntuotantoa voitaisiin nostaa jopa noin kaksinkertaiseksi ja kaukolämpövoiman tuotantoa yli 50 % nykyisestä vuoteen 2010 mennessä. Pelkästään parannetulla soodakattilatekniikalla voidaan sähkön tuotantoa lisätä merkittävästi. Suhteellisesti vielä enemmän sähkön tuotantoa voidaan nostaa ottamalla käyttöön biomassan kaasutustekniikoita, mutta ilman nopeaa kaupallistumista ja kohtuullista lisäbiomassan hintaa uudet tekniikat eivät vuoteen 2010 mennessä ehdi saada merkittävää asemaa. Hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähennysmahdollisuuksia on tarkasteltu sarjassa skenaarioita. Tulosten mukaan uusien energian tuotantotekniikoiden nopea kehitys ja biomassan hinnan aleneminen eivät riitä päästötavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi tarvittaviin energiankulutuksen muutoksiin edes verraten korkean energiaverotuksen toteutuessa. Näiden lisäksi tarvittaisiin voimakkaita energiankäytön tehostamistoimia, joiden aikaansaaminen on käytännössä vaikeata. Ilman ydinvoiman tuotannon lisäämistä tiukoista päästötavoitteista joudutaan siten tulosten mukaan jokseenkin varmasti luopumaan. Possible future development paths of the Finnish energy economy during the next few decades have been analyzed. The focus has been on the role of new energy conversion technologies, and potential efficiency improvements in the end-use of energy, as well as on the possibilities for reducing energy related emissions. A national energy system model developed at VTT Energy has been used as the main tool in the study. The model includes modules both for the energy supply and for the end-use sectors, and it is based on the methodology of the well-known EFOM family of energy models. A number of future scenarios has been defined for the analysis of potential developments in the energy system. The scenarios differ from each other according to assumptions on the penetration of new technologies, price levels of biomass fuels, alternative projections for the forest industries, energy taxes, CO2 emission targets, energy conservation measures, and additional nuclear power. Updated projections for the demand of useful energy have been made for each end-use sector. Apart from the base demand scenario, in some scenarios a higher or a lower growth in demand has been assumed. In the results of the study the impact of new energy technologies is shown particularly in the increased production of combined heat and power. The cogeneration of electricity within industry could be about doubled by the year 2010, and within the district heating sector it could be increased by 50%. The increases could be achieved mainly by raising the power to steam ratio with new and advanced technologies. Improved recovery boilers within the pulp and paper industry would alone account for a major part of the increase. Biomass gasification technologies offer still further potential for increased generation, but are not likely to have a prominent role by the year 2010 without a very rapid commercialization. Strategies for reducing CO2 emissions have been analyzed in a series of scenarios. According to the results, even a rapid development of new energy technologies together with decreased prices of biomass fuels and considerably high energy taxes will not achieve the targeted CO2 emission levels in the absence of additional nuclear power. Significant efficiency improvements in the end-use of energy would additionally be required, but such changes will be difficult to realize in practice. The results thus indicate that renouncing the…
The greenhouse impacts of the Finnish forest sector, including the forest biomass, forest industr... more The greenhouse impacts of the Finnish forest sector, including the forest biomass, forest industry, forest products in use, foreign trade and waste management are discussed. The main carbon storages and flows are estimated and the greenhouse gas balance both totally and on national level are presented. The history of the greenhouse impact is also estimated and two future scenarios of the forest sector are compared. The present use and potential for additional use of bioenergy is also reviewed, and the impact of expanded bioenergy use on the national CO? emissions is illustrated with scenario examples.
... Other renewables include potentials for hydro, wind and tidal power, geothermal energy and so... more ... Other renewables include potentials for hydro, wind and tidal power, geothermal energy and solar energy. Page 7. ... Asia (includes Chinese Taipei and Pacific islands) SKO South Korea USA United States WEU Western Europe (EU-15, Iceland, Malta, Norway, Switzerland) ...
We generate efficient climate change mitigation scenarios of low emission pathways for carbon dio... more We generate efficient climate change mitigation scenarios of low emission pathways for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such that global warming remains below 2 °C with high probabilities. Then, we balance the cost of mitigation for different world regions based on equity principles and fairness. The study assumes early mitigation actions starting already in 2020 and quantifies the market penetration of carbon-free technologies, the emission pathways and the economic costs for an efficient reduction of GHGs emissions. The prerequisite is that the CO2 equivalent concentration will remain similar to the present levels while the temperature rise will stay below 2 °C of warming. The associated budget of Remaining Carbon Equivalent Emissions Quotas (RCEEQ) is 273 GtC for CO2 plus another 180 GtC-eq. for other GHGs, valid from the period 2020 onwards, and is imposed as constraint. This value of RCEEQ is in accordance with the Summary Report for Policy Makers of the 5th Ass...
VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2196 Raportissa esitellyn CLIMTECH-hankkeen tavoitteena oli selv... more VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2196 Raportissa esitellyn CLIMTECH-hankkeen tavoitteena oli selvittää teknologian potentiaalia ja kustannustehokkuutta Suomen kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähentämisen kannalta lyhyellä ja keskipitkällä aikavälillä (noin vuoteen 2030) erilaisissa päästöjen rajoitusskenaarioissa. Työ tehtiin VTT Prosesseissa osana Tekesin CLIMTECH-teknologia-ohjelmaa. Päästöjä vähentävän teknologian merkitystä arvioitiin työssä VTT:n laajalla energiajärjestelmämallilla EFOM, joka sisältää kattavasti kaikkien kuuden Kioton pöytäkirjaan sisältyvän kasvihuonekaasun kotimaiset päästölähteet sekä päästöjä vähentävien teknisten vaihtoehtojen kuvauksen. Työssä hahmoteltiin päästöjen rajoittamiseen liittyvän teknologian kehittymiselle kaksi varsin erilaista tulevaisuudenkuvaa. Tavanomaisen kehityksen skenaariossa oletettiin kansainvälisten ilmastonmuutoksen hillintään tähtäävien toimien etenevän hitaasti, jolloin päästöjä vähentävän teknologian kehittämiseen ei panosteta merkittä...
VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2300 Julkaisuun on koottu uudet mittaus- ja tutkimustulokset Suo... more VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2300 Julkaisuun on koottu uudet mittaus- ja tutkimustulokset Suomen polttoperäisistä primääripien-hiukkasista ja niiden päästökertoimista (PM2,5 ja PM1) sekä eri vähennystekniikoiden vaikutukset pienhiukkaspäästöihin ja niiden ominaisuuksiin ja arvioitu vähennystoimenpiteiden kustannuksia. Tiedot on liitetty VTT:ssa käytössä olevaan IEA:n ETSAP-yhteistyössä kehitettyyn TIMES-energiajärjestelmämalliin, jolla voidaan arvioida päästöjen kustannustehokasta rajoittamista ja rajoittamisen vaikutuksia muihin ilmapäästöihin. Erityisesti keskityttiin kotimaisiin polttoaineisiin (puuhun, turpeeseen, jätteenpolttoon). Hankkeessa yhdistettiin tietämys pienhiukkasten päästöistä eri prosesseissa (polttoaineet, polttotekniikat, rajoitustekniikat, laitoskokoluokat, teollisuusprosessit jne.) energiajärjestelmämallinnukseen ja skenaariotarkasteluihin siitä, miten Suomen energia- ja teollisuusjärjestelmä tulee muuttumaan Kioton 1. velvoitekauden ja oletettujen myöhempi...
ABSTRACT In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional i... more ABSTRACT In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at national and global levels. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2% by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5% GDP. The approaches outlined within have guided the first evidence based decarbonisation legislation and continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved.
The EU is considering the adoption of a tighter emission target, to replace the agreed -20 per ce... more The EU is considering the adoption of a tighter emission target, to replace the agreed -20 per cent emission target already agreed on. In this study, we analyze the implications of the proposed -30 per cent EU-wide emission cut from the perspective of the Finnish economy. We use an energy system model to study the technological choices and direct energy and investment costs of the stricter target, and an applied general equilibrium model to analyse its economic implications at industry and macroeconomic levels. We find that the stricter target increases the economic costs roughly proportionally to the abatement effort and consist mostly of the welfare losses of taxation.
The report “Impact Assessment of the EU’s 2030 climate and energy policies for Finland” is based ... more The report “Impact Assessment of the EU’s 2030 climate and energy policies for Finland” is based on the analysis by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT) and presents assessments of the proposed 2030 policy framework on Finland’s energy system and national economies. The work was done under the service contract of the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of the Economy and Employment. The details of the 2030 policy framework including the effort sharing between the Member States was not known while doing this analysis, which means that further work is required to better analyse the challenges and opportunities from the Finnish perspective.
Forest industry is a notable user of electric power in Finland. The main reason for this is mecha... more Forest industry is a notable user of electric power in Finland. The main reason for this is mechanical pulping, which is very energy intensive. Energy savings in mechanical pulping will also affect indirectly emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The aims of the study were to a) study the potential for energy savings and reduction of GHGs by implementation of biotechnical methods in mechanical pulping, b) estimate their costefficiency and c) assess the environmental impacts of their adoption into TMP production using the LCA methodology. Two different biotechnical methods were considered, namely fungal pretreatment of chips (biopulping) and enzyme-aided refining, both of which have shown marked potential for energy savings in mechanical pulping. Biopulping has been studied intensively, but without experience in mill scale. Enzyme-aided refining was developed during 1990s in collaborative projects and the method has been succesfully verified in mill scale trials. Cost-efficiency, adop...
The Low Carbon Finland 2050 project by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland aims to assess th... more The Low Carbon Finland 2050 project by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland aims to assess the technological opportunities and challenges involved in reducing Finland's greenhouse gas emissions. A target for reduction is set as at least 80% from the 1990 level by 2050 as part of an international effort, which requires strong RD&D in clean energy technologies. Key findings of the project are presented in this publication, which aims to stimulate enlightening and multidisciplinary discussions on low-carbon futures for Finland. The project gathered together VTT's technology experts in clean energy production, smart energy infrastructures, transport, buildings, and industrial systems as well as experts in energy system modelling and foresight. VTT's leading edge "Low Carbon and Smart Energy" enables new solutions with a demonstration that is the first of its kind in Finland, and the introduction of new energy technology onto national and global markets.
Growing energy demand, depleting fossil energy reserves, and tackling climate change will drive t... more Growing energy demand, depleting fossil energy reserves, and tackling climate change will drive the demands and prices of fossil fuels and renewable energy. This report gives an overview of technical potentials of fossil and renewable energy resources and their uncertainties. The work was carried out within the research project "SEKKI - The Competitiveness of Finnish Energy Industry under Developing Climate Policy", which was part of ClimBus-programme by Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology. The SEKKI research was performed as a joint research project of VTT, MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT) and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economics in Transition (BOFIT). The coordinating partner was VTT. The objective of the project was to assess factors contributing to the competitiveness of the Finnish energy industry as well as the changes in the operational environment due to mitigation of climate change. The project focused on the assessment of the future develo...
Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part o... more Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part of this work. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot, therefore, guarantee that the reuse of third-party content does not infringe the copyright of the third party. If you wish to reuse any third-party content, you bear the risks associated with any such rights violations. You are responsible for determining whether there is a need to obtain permission for the use of third-party content, and if so, for obtaining the relevant permission from the copyright holder. Examples of third-party content may include, but are not limited to, tables, figures or images. Photo rights (further permission required for reuse): Any queries regarding rights and licences should be addressed to:
ABSTRACT VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes 1697 Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin Suomen en... more ABSTRACT VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes 1697 Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin Suomen energiajärjestelmän tulevaisuuden vaihtoehtoja parinkymmenen seuraavan vuoden aikana. Pyrkimyksenä on ollut selvittää erityisesti uusien energiantuotantotekniikoiden ja energian käyttöä tehostavien toimien merkitystä tulevaisuuden energiahuollossa sekä mahdollisuuksia energian tuotannon ja käytön päästöjen vähentämiseksi. Työn keskeisin apuväline on ollut Valtion teknillisessä tutkimuskeskuksessa (VTT) laadittu Suomen energiajärjestelmän malli, joka käsittää sekä energian tuotannon että kulutuksen kuvauksen valtakunnallisella tasolla. Tulevaisuuden vaihtoehtojen analysointi ja vertailu on tehty määrittelemällä erilaisia energiataloudellisia skenaarioita. Tarkastellut skenaariot eroavat toisistaan energiatekniikan kehitystä, biopolttoaineiden hintoja, metsäteollisuuden kehitysvaihtoehtoja, energiaveroja, hiilidioksidipäästöjen rajoittamista, energiansäästötoimia ja ydinvoiman lisärakentamista koskevissa oletuksissa. Keskeisesti energiatalouden muutoksiin vaikuttavasta hyötyenergian kulutuksesta ja siihen liittyvästä tehostamispotentiaalista on laadittu skenaarioita varten sektorikohtaiset kehitysarviot. Kulutuksen perusarvion lisäksi eräissä skenaarioissa on oletettu nopeampi tai hitaampi kulutuksen kasvu. Skenaariotulosten mukaan uusien energiantuotantotekniikoiden merkitys näkyy selvimmin yhteistuotantopotentiaalin voimakkaana kasvuna. Rakennussuhdetta nostamalla teollisuuden sähköntuotantoa voitaisiin nostaa jopa noin kaksinkertaiseksi ja kaukolämpövoiman tuotantoa yli 50 % nykyisestä vuoteen 2010 mennessä. Pelkästään parannetulla soodakattilatekniikalla voidaan sähkön tuotantoa lisätä merkittävästi. Suhteellisesti vielä enemmän sähkön tuotantoa voidaan nostaa ottamalla käyttöön biomassan kaasutustekniikoita, mutta ilman nopeaa kaupallistumista ja kohtuullista lisäbiomassan hintaa uudet tekniikat eivät vuoteen 2010 mennessä ehdi saada merkittävää asemaa. Hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähennysmahdollisuuksia on tarkasteltu sarjassa skenaarioita. Tulosten mukaan uusien energian tuotantotekniikoiden nopea kehitys ja biomassan hinnan aleneminen eivät riitä päästötavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi tarvittaviin energiankulutuksen muutoksiin edes verraten korkean energiaverotuksen toteutuessa. Näiden lisäksi tarvittaisiin voimakkaita energiankäytön tehostamistoimia, joiden aikaansaaminen on käytännössä vaikeata. Ilman ydinvoiman tuotannon lisäämistä tiukoista päästötavoitteista joudutaan siten tulosten mukaan jokseenkin varmasti luopumaan. Possible future development paths of the Finnish energy economy during the next few decades have been analyzed. The focus has been on the role of new energy conversion technologies, and potential efficiency improvements in the end-use of energy, as well as on the possibilities for reducing energy related emissions. A national energy system model developed at VTT Energy has been used as the main tool in the study. The model includes modules both for the energy supply and for the end-use sectors, and it is based on the methodology of the well-known EFOM family of energy models. A number of future scenarios has been defined for the analysis of potential developments in the energy system. The scenarios differ from each other according to assumptions on the penetration of new technologies, price levels of biomass fuels, alternative projections for the forest industries, energy taxes, CO2 emission targets, energy conservation measures, and additional nuclear power. Updated projections for the demand of useful energy have been made for each end-use sector. Apart from the base demand scenario, in some scenarios a higher or a lower growth in demand has been assumed. In the results of the study the impact of new energy technologies is shown particularly in the increased production of combined heat and power. The cogeneration of electricity within industry could be about doubled by the year 2010, and within the district heating sector it could be increased by 50%. The increases could be achieved mainly by raising the power to steam ratio with new and advanced technologies. Improved recovery boilers within the pulp and paper industry would alone account for a major part of the increase. Biomass gasification technologies offer still further potential for increased generation, but are not likely to have a prominent role by the year 2010 without a very rapid commercialization. Strategies for reducing CO2 emissions have been analyzed in a series of scenarios. According to the results, even a rapid development of new energy technologies together with decreased prices of biomass fuels and considerably high energy taxes will not achieve the targeted CO2 emission levels in the absence of additional nuclear power. Significant efficiency improvements in the end-use of energy would additionally be required, but such changes will be difficult to realize in practice. The results thus indicate that renouncing the…
The greenhouse impacts of the Finnish forest sector, including the forest biomass, forest industr... more The greenhouse impacts of the Finnish forest sector, including the forest biomass, forest industry, forest products in use, foreign trade and waste management are discussed. The main carbon storages and flows are estimated and the greenhouse gas balance both totally and on national level are presented. The history of the greenhouse impact is also estimated and two future scenarios of the forest sector are compared. The present use and potential for additional use of bioenergy is also reviewed, and the impact of expanded bioenergy use on the national CO? emissions is illustrated with scenario examples.
... Other renewables include potentials for hydro, wind and tidal power, geothermal energy and so... more ... Other renewables include potentials for hydro, wind and tidal power, geothermal energy and solar energy. Page 7. ... Asia (includes Chinese Taipei and Pacific islands) SKO South Korea USA United States WEU Western Europe (EU-15, Iceland, Malta, Norway, Switzerland) ...
We generate efficient climate change mitigation scenarios of low emission pathways for carbon dio... more We generate efficient climate change mitigation scenarios of low emission pathways for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such that global warming remains below 2 °C with high probabilities. Then, we balance the cost of mitigation for different world regions based on equity principles and fairness. The study assumes early mitigation actions starting already in 2020 and quantifies the market penetration of carbon-free technologies, the emission pathways and the economic costs for an efficient reduction of GHGs emissions. The prerequisite is that the CO2 equivalent concentration will remain similar to the present levels while the temperature rise will stay below 2 °C of warming. The associated budget of Remaining Carbon Equivalent Emissions Quotas (RCEEQ) is 273 GtC for CO2 plus another 180 GtC-eq. for other GHGs, valid from the period 2020 onwards, and is imposed as constraint. This value of RCEEQ is in accordance with the Summary Report for Policy Makers of the 5th Ass...
VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2196 Raportissa esitellyn CLIMTECH-hankkeen tavoitteena oli selv... more VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2196 Raportissa esitellyn CLIMTECH-hankkeen tavoitteena oli selvittää teknologian potentiaalia ja kustannustehokkuutta Suomen kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähentämisen kannalta lyhyellä ja keskipitkällä aikavälillä (noin vuoteen 2030) erilaisissa päästöjen rajoitusskenaarioissa. Työ tehtiin VTT Prosesseissa osana Tekesin CLIMTECH-teknologia-ohjelmaa. Päästöjä vähentävän teknologian merkitystä arvioitiin työssä VTT:n laajalla energiajärjestelmämallilla EFOM, joka sisältää kattavasti kaikkien kuuden Kioton pöytäkirjaan sisältyvän kasvihuonekaasun kotimaiset päästölähteet sekä päästöjä vähentävien teknisten vaihtoehtojen kuvauksen. Työssä hahmoteltiin päästöjen rajoittamiseen liittyvän teknologian kehittymiselle kaksi varsin erilaista tulevaisuudenkuvaa. Tavanomaisen kehityksen skenaariossa oletettiin kansainvälisten ilmastonmuutoksen hillintään tähtäävien toimien etenevän hitaasti, jolloin päästöjä vähentävän teknologian kehittämiseen ei panosteta merkittä...
VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2300 Julkaisuun on koottu uudet mittaus- ja tutkimustulokset Suo... more VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2300 Julkaisuun on koottu uudet mittaus- ja tutkimustulokset Suomen polttoperäisistä primääripien-hiukkasista ja niiden päästökertoimista (PM2,5 ja PM1) sekä eri vähennystekniikoiden vaikutukset pienhiukkaspäästöihin ja niiden ominaisuuksiin ja arvioitu vähennystoimenpiteiden kustannuksia. Tiedot on liitetty VTT:ssa käytössä olevaan IEA:n ETSAP-yhteistyössä kehitettyyn TIMES-energiajärjestelmämalliin, jolla voidaan arvioida päästöjen kustannustehokasta rajoittamista ja rajoittamisen vaikutuksia muihin ilmapäästöihin. Erityisesti keskityttiin kotimaisiin polttoaineisiin (puuhun, turpeeseen, jätteenpolttoon). Hankkeessa yhdistettiin tietämys pienhiukkasten päästöistä eri prosesseissa (polttoaineet, polttotekniikat, rajoitustekniikat, laitoskokoluokat, teollisuusprosessit jne.) energiajärjestelmämallinnukseen ja skenaariotarkasteluihin siitä, miten Suomen energia- ja teollisuusjärjestelmä tulee muuttumaan Kioton 1. velvoitekauden ja oletettujen myöhempi...
ABSTRACT In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional i... more ABSTRACT In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at national and global levels. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2% by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5% GDP. The approaches outlined within have guided the first evidence based decarbonisation legislation and continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved.
The EU is considering the adoption of a tighter emission target, to replace the agreed -20 per ce... more The EU is considering the adoption of a tighter emission target, to replace the agreed -20 per cent emission target already agreed on. In this study, we analyze the implications of the proposed -30 per cent EU-wide emission cut from the perspective of the Finnish economy. We use an energy system model to study the technological choices and direct energy and investment costs of the stricter target, and an applied general equilibrium model to analyse its economic implications at industry and macroeconomic levels. We find that the stricter target increases the economic costs roughly proportionally to the abatement effort and consist mostly of the welfare losses of taxation.
The report “Impact Assessment of the EU’s 2030 climate and energy policies for Finland” is based ... more The report “Impact Assessment of the EU’s 2030 climate and energy policies for Finland” is based on the analysis by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT) and presents assessments of the proposed 2030 policy framework on Finland’s energy system and national economies. The work was done under the service contract of the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of the Economy and Employment. The details of the 2030 policy framework including the effort sharing between the Member States was not known while doing this analysis, which means that further work is required to better analyse the challenges and opportunities from the Finnish perspective.
Forest industry is a notable user of electric power in Finland. The main reason for this is mecha... more Forest industry is a notable user of electric power in Finland. The main reason for this is mechanical pulping, which is very energy intensive. Energy savings in mechanical pulping will also affect indirectly emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The aims of the study were to a) study the potential for energy savings and reduction of GHGs by implementation of biotechnical methods in mechanical pulping, b) estimate their costefficiency and c) assess the environmental impacts of their adoption into TMP production using the LCA methodology. Two different biotechnical methods were considered, namely fungal pretreatment of chips (biopulping) and enzyme-aided refining, both of which have shown marked potential for energy savings in mechanical pulping. Biopulping has been studied intensively, but without experience in mill scale. Enzyme-aided refining was developed during 1990s in collaborative projects and the method has been succesfully verified in mill scale trials. Cost-efficiency, adop...
The Low Carbon Finland 2050 project by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland aims to assess th... more The Low Carbon Finland 2050 project by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland aims to assess the technological opportunities and challenges involved in reducing Finland's greenhouse gas emissions. A target for reduction is set as at least 80% from the 1990 level by 2050 as part of an international effort, which requires strong RD&D in clean energy technologies. Key findings of the project are presented in this publication, which aims to stimulate enlightening and multidisciplinary discussions on low-carbon futures for Finland. The project gathered together VTT's technology experts in clean energy production, smart energy infrastructures, transport, buildings, and industrial systems as well as experts in energy system modelling and foresight. VTT's leading edge "Low Carbon and Smart Energy" enables new solutions with a demonstration that is the first of its kind in Finland, and the introduction of new energy technology onto national and global markets.
Growing energy demand, depleting fossil energy reserves, and tackling climate change will drive t... more Growing energy demand, depleting fossil energy reserves, and tackling climate change will drive the demands and prices of fossil fuels and renewable energy. This report gives an overview of technical potentials of fossil and renewable energy resources and their uncertainties. The work was carried out within the research project "SEKKI - The Competitiveness of Finnish Energy Industry under Developing Climate Policy", which was part of ClimBus-programme by Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology. The SEKKI research was performed as a joint research project of VTT, MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT) and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economics in Transition (BOFIT). The coordinating partner was VTT. The objective of the project was to assess factors contributing to the competitiveness of the Finnish energy industry as well as the changes in the operational environment due to mitigation of climate change. The project focused on the assessment of the future develo...
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