Introduction. An assessment of the contribution of manmade emissions into the atmosphere to the i... more Introduction. An assessment of the contribution of manmade emissions into the atmosphere to the incidence of lung cancer in the Russian Federation is made. For an assessment data from official state statistics on emissions into the atmosphere of the Russian Federation and indicators of the incidence rate of lung cancer by regions of the Russian Federation were used. Materials and methods. Linear regression analysis was used as a statistical method of research. The optimality of the regression model by the number of predictors was determined by the Akaike information criterion. Results. Limits obtained with 90% confidence are the contributions of complex atmospheric technogenic emission to the incidence of lung cancer of 2.2 (-0.7; 5.2)% for men and 3.7 (0.5; 6.7)% for women, that is statistically significant. The values of chemical oncological risks from emissions are respectively equal to 1.5·10–5 and 6.2·10–6 per year and don’t exceed the standards of socially acceptable chemical ...
Exposure to ionizing radiation increases the risk of cancer in humans. Russian nuclear workers re... more Exposure to ionizing radiation increases the risk of cancer in humans. Russian nuclear workers receive low and middle level accumulated dose for the entire period of their occupational activities. The methodology of UNSCEAR model and estimates of attributable risk was implemented for generating potential risk group among the "Mayak" plant personnel. There are 5,858 workers covered by individual dosimetry monitoring, who have received radiation doses since 1949. It was stated that 2% of the "Mayak" plant personnel covered by individual dosimetry monitoring should be included in the group of potential risk for radiation-induced cancer. UNSCEAR recommendations for estimating individual radiation risks can be used for generating groups of potential risks among Russian nuclear workers.
Purpose: To analyze the long-term effects of exposure to low-dose γ-irradiation on survival and l... more Purpose: To analyze the long-term effects of exposure to low-dose γ-irradiation on survival and life span in directly irradiated Daphnia magna and their offspring. Materials and methods: One-day-old Daphnia magna were exposed to 10, 100 and 1000 mGy of acute γ-rays. The life-span of irradiated and control animals, as well as their non-exposed progeny was analyzed. Results: Irradiation at dose of 100 and 1000 mGy resulted in a significant decrease in the life span of irradiated Daphnia. The data presented here also show that the survival of non-exposed first-generation offspring of irradiated parents is significantly compromised, thus implying the presence of transgenerational effects. Conclusion: The results of our study show that low-dose irradiation significantly reduces the life-span of directly exposed Daphnia and their first-generation offspring. The observed compromised viability is most likely attributed to non-targeted effects of ionizing radiation.
The manuscript presents results of the radiogenic thyroid cancer risk analysis in the Bryansk and... more The manuscript presents results of the radiogenic thyroid cancer risk analysis in the Bryansk and Oryol regions among children and adolescents at exposure (0-17 years of age). A total of 170 cases of thyroid cancer were diagnosed from 1991 to 1998. Of these, 106 cases were in the Bryansk and 64 in the Oryol region. The size of the exposed population under study is 374 447 persons in the Bryansk region and 207 592 persons in the Oryol region (data of the 1989 census). The mean thyroid dose from incorporated isotopes of 131 I for children and adolescents at exposure is 0.071 Gy in the Bryansk region and 0.013 Gy in the Oryol region. The method of maximum likelihood for nonstationary Poisson series of events was used for risk calculation. The analysis focuses on the relationship between thyroid cancer incidence and thyroid dose due to incorporated iodine radioisotopes. The calculations were based on personal data about disease cases and demographic and dose information for the population points in the regions under study. Statistically significant excess of thyroid cancer incidence above the spontaneous rate was obtained for children and adolescents of the Bryansk region. The excess relative risk per unit dose of 1 Gy (ERR 1Gy) with 95% confidence intervals is 11.9 (7.2, 16.6). For children and adolescents of the Oryol region between 1991 and 1998 statistically significant excess risk was not detected: 6.5 (À20.2, 30.2). The value of the standardized ratio of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence in the region to the general incidence in Russia is 3.5 with 95% confidence intervals (2.8, 4.2) for the Bryansk region. For the Oryol region this ration is 5.3 (4.0, 6.6). The excess of spontaneous incidence observed in the study areas is primarily due to regional differences in incidence and registration features (screening effect). The attributive risk of induction of radiogenic cancers among children and adolescents in the Bryansk region is 46%. This mean that one of every two thyroid cancers detected in the Bryansk 0531-5131/02
Due to the Chernobyl accident, the following four oblasts of the Russian Federation-Bryansk, Oryo... more Due to the Chernobyl accident, the following four oblasts of the Russian Federation-Bryansk, Oryol, Tula and Kaluga-were contaminated with radionuclides at the utmost. In the paper, the problem of the assessment of risk for the development of radiogenic malignant and benign thyroid diseases among the population of the Oryol oblast is discussed. Mean thyroid dose to the residents of the Oryol oblast was 46.3 mGy for children and 10.9 mGy for adults. Estimation of the excess relative risk for thyroid cancer in children gives a positive value (7.8); however, it is not statistically significant. The value of the relative risk for nodular thyroid disease is 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.05-4.14). Epidemiological conclusions were further supported by the observations of elevated frequency of somatic cells harboring gene mutations and increased rate of cytogenetic aberrations in the study group.
This paper discusses the results of the analysis of the relationship between dose and solid cance... more This paper discusses the results of the analysis of the relationship between dose and solid cancer incidence among nuclear workers (males) who worked as liquidators after the Chernobyl accident. Information on this cohort of individuals is available at the regional center of Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry operating at the RF State Research Centre-Institute of Biophysics. Medical and dosimetric information on 8,654 persons 18-60 years of age with documented external radiation doses is used for the analysis. These data were gathered in the period from 1996 to 2001 and cover a total of 45,166.5 follow-up person-years. In the cohort under study, 179 solid cancers occurred during this period. The average age of liquidators at the time of exposure was 35.8 years, and the average dose as a result of the Chernobyl exposure was about 0.05 Sv. For an analysis of the dose-effect relationship (induction of radiation-induced malignant neoplasms) the statistical software EPICURE was used. The results of the analysis show that the cancer incidence in this cohort does not exceed cancer incidence in relevant age groups of the Russian population. The mean value of SIR for all cancer diseases was 0.88 (0.76, 1.02, 95% CI) for the whole period of follow-up. Risks for the induction of radiationrelated cancer diseases were not statistically meaningful. Excess relative risk per 1 Sv was 0.95 (-1.52, 4.49, 95% CI).
Introduction. An assessment of the contribution of manmade emissions into the atmosphere to the i... more Introduction. An assessment of the contribution of manmade emissions into the atmosphere to the incidence of lung cancer in the Russian Federation is made. For an assessment data from official state statistics on emissions into the atmosphere of the Russian Federation and indicators of the incidence rate of lung cancer by regions of the Russian Federation were used. Materials and methods. Linear regression analysis was used as a statistical method of research. The optimality of the regression model by the number of predictors was determined by the Akaike information criterion. Results. Limits obtained with 90% confidence are the contributions of complex atmospheric technogenic emission to the incidence of lung cancer of 2.2 (-0.7; 5.2)% for men and 3.7 (0.5; 6.7)% for women, that is statistically significant. The values of chemical oncological risks from emissions are respectively equal to 1.5·10–5 and 6.2·10–6 per year and don’t exceed the standards of socially acceptable chemical ...
Exposure to ionizing radiation increases the risk of cancer in humans. Russian nuclear workers re... more Exposure to ionizing radiation increases the risk of cancer in humans. Russian nuclear workers receive low and middle level accumulated dose for the entire period of their occupational activities. The methodology of UNSCEAR model and estimates of attributable risk was implemented for generating potential risk group among the "Mayak" plant personnel. There are 5,858 workers covered by individual dosimetry monitoring, who have received radiation doses since 1949. It was stated that 2% of the "Mayak" plant personnel covered by individual dosimetry monitoring should be included in the group of potential risk for radiation-induced cancer. UNSCEAR recommendations for estimating individual radiation risks can be used for generating groups of potential risks among Russian nuclear workers.
Purpose: To analyze the long-term effects of exposure to low-dose γ-irradiation on survival and l... more Purpose: To analyze the long-term effects of exposure to low-dose γ-irradiation on survival and life span in directly irradiated Daphnia magna and their offspring. Materials and methods: One-day-old Daphnia magna were exposed to 10, 100 and 1000 mGy of acute γ-rays. The life-span of irradiated and control animals, as well as their non-exposed progeny was analyzed. Results: Irradiation at dose of 100 and 1000 mGy resulted in a significant decrease in the life span of irradiated Daphnia. The data presented here also show that the survival of non-exposed first-generation offspring of irradiated parents is significantly compromised, thus implying the presence of transgenerational effects. Conclusion: The results of our study show that low-dose irradiation significantly reduces the life-span of directly exposed Daphnia and their first-generation offspring. The observed compromised viability is most likely attributed to non-targeted effects of ionizing radiation.
The manuscript presents results of the radiogenic thyroid cancer risk analysis in the Bryansk and... more The manuscript presents results of the radiogenic thyroid cancer risk analysis in the Bryansk and Oryol regions among children and adolescents at exposure (0-17 years of age). A total of 170 cases of thyroid cancer were diagnosed from 1991 to 1998. Of these, 106 cases were in the Bryansk and 64 in the Oryol region. The size of the exposed population under study is 374 447 persons in the Bryansk region and 207 592 persons in the Oryol region (data of the 1989 census). The mean thyroid dose from incorporated isotopes of 131 I for children and adolescents at exposure is 0.071 Gy in the Bryansk region and 0.013 Gy in the Oryol region. The method of maximum likelihood for nonstationary Poisson series of events was used for risk calculation. The analysis focuses on the relationship between thyroid cancer incidence and thyroid dose due to incorporated iodine radioisotopes. The calculations were based on personal data about disease cases and demographic and dose information for the population points in the regions under study. Statistically significant excess of thyroid cancer incidence above the spontaneous rate was obtained for children and adolescents of the Bryansk region. The excess relative risk per unit dose of 1 Gy (ERR 1Gy) with 95% confidence intervals is 11.9 (7.2, 16.6). For children and adolescents of the Oryol region between 1991 and 1998 statistically significant excess risk was not detected: 6.5 (À20.2, 30.2). The value of the standardized ratio of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence in the region to the general incidence in Russia is 3.5 with 95% confidence intervals (2.8, 4.2) for the Bryansk region. For the Oryol region this ration is 5.3 (4.0, 6.6). The excess of spontaneous incidence observed in the study areas is primarily due to regional differences in incidence and registration features (screening effect). The attributive risk of induction of radiogenic cancers among children and adolescents in the Bryansk region is 46%. This mean that one of every two thyroid cancers detected in the Bryansk 0531-5131/02
Due to the Chernobyl accident, the following four oblasts of the Russian Federation-Bryansk, Oryo... more Due to the Chernobyl accident, the following four oblasts of the Russian Federation-Bryansk, Oryol, Tula and Kaluga-were contaminated with radionuclides at the utmost. In the paper, the problem of the assessment of risk for the development of radiogenic malignant and benign thyroid diseases among the population of the Oryol oblast is discussed. Mean thyroid dose to the residents of the Oryol oblast was 46.3 mGy for children and 10.9 mGy for adults. Estimation of the excess relative risk for thyroid cancer in children gives a positive value (7.8); however, it is not statistically significant. The value of the relative risk for nodular thyroid disease is 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.05-4.14). Epidemiological conclusions were further supported by the observations of elevated frequency of somatic cells harboring gene mutations and increased rate of cytogenetic aberrations in the study group.
This paper discusses the results of the analysis of the relationship between dose and solid cance... more This paper discusses the results of the analysis of the relationship between dose and solid cancer incidence among nuclear workers (males) who worked as liquidators after the Chernobyl accident. Information on this cohort of individuals is available at the regional center of Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry operating at the RF State Research Centre-Institute of Biophysics. Medical and dosimetric information on 8,654 persons 18-60 years of age with documented external radiation doses is used for the analysis. These data were gathered in the period from 1996 to 2001 and cover a total of 45,166.5 follow-up person-years. In the cohort under study, 179 solid cancers occurred during this period. The average age of liquidators at the time of exposure was 35.8 years, and the average dose as a result of the Chernobyl exposure was about 0.05 Sv. For an analysis of the dose-effect relationship (induction of radiation-induced malignant neoplasms) the statistical software EPICURE was used. The results of the analysis show that the cancer incidence in this cohort does not exceed cancer incidence in relevant age groups of the Russian population. The mean value of SIR for all cancer diseases was 0.88 (0.76, 1.02, 95% CI) for the whole period of follow-up. Risks for the induction of radiationrelated cancer diseases were not statistically meaningful. Excess relative risk per 1 Sv was 0.95 (-1.52, 4.49, 95% CI).
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Papers by Anton Gorski