Papers by Andrew Sentance
Infrastructure, Utilities, and Regulation
Page 1. Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 25, No. 3, Autumn 2009 www.oxrep. oxfordjournals.or... more Page 1. Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 25, No. 3, Autumn 2009 www.oxrep. oxfordjournals.org Infrastructure, Utilities, and Regulation Edited by Dieter Helm Contents Infrastructure investment, the cost of capital, and regulation: an assessment Dieter Helm Transport infrastructure investment: implications for growth and productivity Nicholas Crafts Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built-and what we can do about it Bent Flyvbjerg Roads: a utility in need of a strategy Stephen Glaister and John W. Smith ...
Global Inflation: How Big a Threat?
... In this speech,(1) Andrew Sentance,(2) a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, discusses t... more ... In this speech,(1) Andrew Sentance,(2) a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, discusses the origins of the recent change in the global inflation climate, whether the change in trend is likely to be sustained and ... Or will the lessons from that era prevent a repeat performance ...
Challenging Times for UK Monetary Policy
World Economics, 2008
... Page 10. 10 WORLD ECONOMICS Vol. 9 No. 1 JanuaryMarch 2008 Andrew Sentance employment,... more ... Page 10. 10 WORLD ECONOMICS Vol. 9 No. 1 JanuaryMarch 2008 Andrew Sentance employment, investment, costs and prices. Another key set of indicators will be measures of wages and earnings growthincluding pay settlements. ...
Does sterling still matter for monetary policy?
... Exporters who are heavily dependent on the US and other dollar-related markets will not be fe... more ... Exporters who are heavily dependent on the US and other dollar-related markets will not be feeling the same competitiveness benefits as companies selling into European markets. ... (1) See Sentance (2007b) and Bean (2008) for analysis by MPC members of the 'twin shocks'. ...
The Changing Pattern of Savings: Implications for Growth and Inflation
... In this speech,(1) Andrew Sentance,(2) a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, discusses t... more ... In this speech,(1) Andrew Sentance,(2) a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, discusses the role that savings play in the economy, the changing pattern of savings over the past decade and the implications of these trends for ... My talk will be divided into three main parts. ...
Prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK had the largest banking sector asset to GDP ... more Prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK had the largest banking sector asset to GDP ratio among large countries, and had experienced rapid real property price increases as well as a persistent current account deficit in the preceding decade. These factors, together with its role as an international financial centre, made the UK economy particularly vulnerable to the onset of the global financial crisis. Although the initial drop in real GDP was steep, we provide evidence that the economy has weathered the financial storm better than many feared, and has fared no worse than its peer group of major economies. In this paper we assess the reasons underlying this outcome, including the possibility of exaggerated vulnerabilities, global economic recovery, the flexible supply side of the UK economy, as well as fiscal, financial and monetary policy interventions. Our analysis suggests that all of these factors played a role in cushioning the impact on the UK real economy, leading to a more benign outcome than most observers expected.
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009
The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. ... more The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find that the boom was unusually long and associated with neither particularly strong growth nor rising inflation in the economies
Utilities Policy, 2003
Slot auctions have been promoted as a means of increasing competition in the airline industry and... more Slot auctions have been promoted as a means of increasing competition in the airline industry and making more efficient use of scarce airport capacity. On both counts, the arguments are flawed. If there are competition concerns about the development of huband-spoke network airlines, there are adequate competition remedies already available to deal with this issue. On efficiency grounds, the extension of secondary slot trading -which is compatible with the current slot allocation regime -should allow the benefits of a market-oriented slot regime to be delivered without the upheaval created by undermining the well-established international principle of 'grandfather rights'. Auctioning slots generated by new infrastructure investment could have some merit if the proceeds are ploughed back to offset the environmental costs of airport expansion. However, there are other mechanisms available to ensure that the costs of airport expansion properly reflect environmental externalities. It is difficult to see a compelling case for developing slot auctions -which are likely to disrupt the current international slot allocation regime -purely to deal with these environmental issues.
Consuming passions: Over-consumption is giving Britain indigestion
New Economy, 1994
Page 1. 226 NEW ECONOMY New Economy CONTROVERSY ANDREW SENTANCE Senior Research Fellow, London Bu... more Page 1. 226 NEW ECONOMY New Economy CONTROVERSY ANDREW SENTANCE Senior Research Fellow, London Business School and formerly Chief Economist at the CBI Consuming passions ... As a result, the ratio of investment to GNP will rise from its historic low. ...
Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy
Developing transport infrastructure for the Low Carbon Society
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2009
... air transport links, this is clearly a preferable approach to a blanket embargo on airport ex... more ... air transport links, this is clearly a preferable approach to a blanket embargo on airport expansion. ... To support this model, there would need to be a facility for quick recharging for vehicles ... crisis, it is clear that key decisions influencing the transition to a Low Carbon Society over ...
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012
Prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK had the largest banking sector asset to GDP ... more Prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK had the largest banking sector asset to GDP ratio among large countries, and had experienced rapid real property price increases as well as a persistent current account deficit in the preceding decade. These factors, together with its role as an international financial centre, made the UK economy particularly vulnerable to the onset of the global financial crisis. Although the initial drop in real GDP was steep, we provide evidence that the economy has weathered the financial storm better than many feared, and has fared no worse than its peer group of major economies. In this paper we assess the reasons underlying this outcome, including the possibility of exaggerated vulnerabilities, global economic recovery, the flexible supply side of the UK economy, as well as fiscal, financial and monetary policy interventions. Our analysis suggests that all of these factors played a role in cushioning the impact on the UK real economy, leading to a more benign outcome than most observers expected.
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009
Fiscal Studies, 1998
In this paper, we present a new model of UK public finances which aims to shed light on recent pr... more In this paper, we present a new model of UK public finances which aims to shed light on recent problems of forecasting the PSBR. The main elements of public spending are treated as endogenous variables which rise in line with GDP over the medium term. Also, the cyclical response of public borrowing to rises in the level of economic activity is more muted when growth is export-led than when it is consumer-led. These two features go a long way towards explaining the rapid deterioration of public finances in the early 1990s and the slow pace of improvement since 1993.
The 1996 Budget: Is this the end of the tax-cutting road?
Economic Outlook, 1996
... The demand for public services and benefits will tend to rise as living stand-ards increase a... more ... The demand for public services and benefits will tend to rise as living stand-ards increase and absorb the increased tax revenues generated ... A new model of public finances developed at the Centre for Economic Forecasting (Hall, O'Sullivan and Sentance, 1996) shows that two ...
Will Labour's Economic Programme Work?
Economic Outlook, 1997
If Labour is elected to government on 1 May, it will inherit the lowest inflation of any incoming... more If Labour is elected to government on 1 May, it will inherit the lowest inflation of any incoming government over the last fifty years but the highest unemployment. At the same time, public borrowing is running at an unsustainable high level. In this article, Andrew Sentance ...
Is the European Economy Turning the Corner?
Economic Outlook, 1997
... However, there is also a structural element to Europe's high unemployment which will... more ... However, there is also a structural element to Europe's high unemployment which will take longer to erode. The big uncertainty remains EMU. ... However, Jenni Greenslade and AndrewSentance argue in this article that a turning point is in sight. ...
How High do UK Interest Rates Need to Rise?
Economic Outlook, 1997
... we have noted in previous editions of Economic Outlook, the public spending plans for the yea... more ... we have noted in previous editions of Economic Outlook, the public spending plans for the year ahead are very tight and will exert a ... spending squeeze would exert a contractionary infuence on growth this year of 1% of GDP and 0.6% next year (see Andrew Sentance's article in ...
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Papers by Andrew Sentance