Klaus Jacob

Environmental policy, innovation and transformation: affirmative or disruptive?

Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, Jul 15, 2020

The paper firstly summarizes the approach and findings to evaluate the effectiveness of environme... more The paper firstly summarizes the approach and findings to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental policies around the globe as it was undertaken in the Sixth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-6; 2019). The data gathered in GEO-6 reveals (1) a high level of institutional innovation, increasingly from the global south, (2) a lack of environmental policy integration (3) spatial and temporal dynamics and (4) the importance of the policy design. Current environmental policies are, however, not sufficient to effectively preserve natural resources and limit emissions to a sustainable level. This has led to a general recognition of the need for a transformative change that goes beyond mere improvements of efficiency. The second part of the paper analyses how environmental policies could contribute in shaping such transformations to sustainability. Transformative policies can be built on social innovations and experimentation with institutional innovation. This is compatible with incremental and sectoral policy making. However, given the complexity and stability of social systems, the outcomes of such policies are uncertain. This is why we argue for strengthening conventional, strategic environmental policies and complementing rather than replacing them with transformative policies.

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Environmental policy, innovation and transformation: affirmative or disruptive?

Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 2020

The paper firstly summarizes the approach and findings to evaluate the effectiveness of environme... more The paper firstly summarizes the approach and findings to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental policies around the globe as it was undertaken in the Sixth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-6; 2019). The data gathered in GEO-6 reveals (1) a high level of institutional innovation, increasingly from the global south, (2) a lack of environmental policy integration (3) spatial and temporal dynamics and (4) the importance of the policy design. Current environmental policies are, however, not sufficient to effectively preserve natural resources and limit emissions to a sustainable level. This has led to a general recognition of the need for a transformative change that goes beyond mere improvements of efficiency. The second part of the paper analyses how environmental policies could contribute in shaping such transformations to sustainability. Transformative policies can be built on social innovations and experimentation with institutional innovation. This is compatible with incremental and sectoral policy making. However, given the complexity and stability of social systems, the outcomes of such policies are uncertain. This is why we argue for strengthening conventional, strategic environmental policies and complementing rather than replacing them with transformative policies.

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Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the Aleutian Arc. Annual progress report, March 1, 1975--February 29, 1976

Seismological, geodetic and geological data are analyzed to derive a coherent theory for the pres... more Seismological, geodetic and geological data are analyzed to derive a coherent theory for the present tectonic processes, the geological structure, and the tectonic history of the Alaska-Aleutian island arc in the framework of recent advancements in plate tectonics. The seismic and tsunami risk is evaluated particularly in the eastern Aleutian arc (including the Alaska Peninsual) which forms a major section of the boundary between the converging Pacific and North American plates with earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8. Major progress was achieved in collecting and analyzing the first seismicity data from a modern telemetered seismic station network installed recently in the Shumagin Island region, which is a zone of suspected high risk for a possible major destructive earthquake in the not too distant future. This network recorded on April 6, 1974 some moderately large quakes (and numerous aftershocks) including one with maximum magnitude m = 6.0. From the initial analysis of this data no premonitory seismic effects were detected as yet. Refined methods are presently applied to further search for possible premonitory changes in the seismic velocity ratio v /v s and in the premonitory seismicity pattern of this shock sequence. c In general the observed seismicity is typical for an island arc structure and comprises 3 modes of activity that are spatially clearly separable: (1) a northward dipping band of seismicity associated with the underthrusting of the sinking oceanic lithosphere of the leading edge of the Pacific plate to depths of at least 100 km. (2) Shallow (<25 km) stress adjustments in the overthrust plate within the island arc ridge on the landward side of the trench. (3) Minor seismicity associated with magmatic activity beneath asoEiffloa a flu, toautear« UNU^B ■ NOTICE

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Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the Aleutian arc. Annual progress report, March 1, 1976--February 28, 1977

Seismological, geodetic and geological data are analyzed to derive a coherent theory for the pres... more Seismological, geodetic and geological data are analyzed to derive a coherent theory for the present tectonic processes, the geological structure, and the tectonic history of the Alaska-Aleutian island arc in the framework of recent advancements in plate tectonics. The seismic and tsunami risk is evaluated particularly in the eastern Aleutian arc (including the Alaska Peninsual) which forms a major section of the boundary between the converging Pacific and North American plates with earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8. Major progress was achieved in collecting and analyzing the first seismicity data from a modern telemetered seismic station network installed recently in the Shumagin Island region, which is a zone of suspected high risk for a possible major destructive earthquake in the not too distant future. This network recorded on April 6, 1974 some moderately large quakes (and numerous aftershocks) including one with maximum magnitude m = 6.0. From the initial analysis of this data no premonitory seismic effects were detected as yet. Refined methods are presently applied to further search for possible premonitory changes in the seismic velocity ratio v /v s and in the premonitory seismicity pattern of this shock sequence. c In general the observed seismicity is typical for an island arc structure and comprises 3 modes of activity that are spatially clearly separable: (1) a northward dipping band of seismicity associated with the underthrusting of the sinking oceanic lithosphere of the leading edge of the Pacific plate to depths of at least 100 km. (2) Shallow (<25 km) stress adjustments in the overthrust plate within the island arc ridge on the landward side of the trench. (3) Minor seismicity associated with magmatic activity beneath asoEiffloa a flu, toautear« UNU^B ■ NOTICE

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Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the Aleutian Arc. Annual progress report, March 1, 1973--February 28, 1974

Seismological, geodetic and geological data are analyzed to derive a coherent theory for the pres... more Seismological, geodetic and geological data are analyzed to derive a coherent theory for the present tectonic processes, the geological structure, and the tectonic history of the Alaska-Aleutian island arc in the framework of recent advancements in plate tectonics. The seismic and tsunami risk is evaluated particularly in the eastern Aleutian arc (including the Alaska Peninsual) which forms a major section of the boundary between the converging Pacific and North American plates with earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8. Major progress was achieved in collecting and analyzing the first seismicity data from a modern telemetered seismic station network installed recently in the Shumagin Island region, which is a zone of suspected high risk for a possible major destructive earthquake in the not too distant future. This network recorded on April 6, 1974 some moderately large quakes (and numerous aftershocks) including one with maximum magnitude m = 6.0. From the initial analysis of this data no premonitory seismic effects were detected as yet. Refined methods are presently applied to further search for possible premonitory changes in the seismic velocity ratio v /v s and in the premonitory seismicity pattern of this shock sequence. c In general the observed seismicity is typical for an island arc structure and comprises 3 modes of activity that are spatially clearly separable: (1) a northward dipping band of seismicity associated with the underthrusting of the sinking oceanic lithosphere of the leading edge of the Pacific plate to depths of at least 100 km. (2) Shallow (<25 km) stress adjustments in the overthrust plate within the island arc ridge on the landward side of the trench. (3) Minor seismicity associated with magmatic activity beneath asoEiffloa a flu, toautear« UNU^B ■ NOTICE

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Comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the Aleutian arc. Annual progress report, March 1, 1974--February 28, 1975

Seismological and geodetic research performed during the past contractyear has increased our unde... more Seismological and geodetic research performed during the past contractyear has increased our understanding of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian Island Arc. While generally aimed at producing a coherent theory for the evaluation of the entire arc, our research has focused on the Shumagin Islands seismic gap, a region within which a major earthquake is expected in the not too distant future. To collect basic seismological data and to investigate certain earthquake prediction techniques we maintain 19 short period and 3 long period seismograph stations, 2 strong motion accelerographs and a pair of strainmeters. To investigate possible regional tilting due to strain accumulation within the seismic gap we have made limited geodetic leveling measurements. We have expanded the baseline and increased the resolution of these tilt measurements with the installation of two remote tide gauges. In this report we present (1) historic seismicity maps of the Shumagin seismic gap vicinity which show the relatively low level of seismic activity in the gap, a possible offset in the Benioff zone, and a few events associated with the Bering shelf continental margin south of the Pribliof Islands; (2) a seismicity map and hypocenter cross-sections based on data from the local Shumagin Islands seismic network which show a very well developed Benioff zone beneath the Shumagin Islands; (3) studies of the focal mechanisms of April 6, 197.4 Shumagin Islands earthquake and the February 2., 1975 Near Islands earthquakes which respectively show thrust faulting perpendicular to the.arc and rightlateral strike-slip faulting oblique to the arc along the slip direction inferred from the relative motion of the plates; (4). the first strong motion accelerograph data from the eastern Aleutians, which show accelerations consistent with those observed for earthquakes in California; (5) this year's geodetic leveling results which when compared with those from 1972 indicate fHSTRlBUTlON OF THIS DOCUMENT IS UNLIMITED DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency Thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. 2. that regional tilting due to tectonic strain accumulation, if it is occuring, is less than 1.9 microradians per year; and (6) seismic observations of two Strombolian eruptive cycles of Pavlof Volcano which reveal monochromatic wave trains which are identical one to the next suggesting a common source region and a harmonic source function or very efficient filtering of the body waves by the pyroclastic layers of the volcano. .

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A Comprehensive Study of the Seismotectonics of the Eastern Aleutian ARC and Associated Volcanic Systems Annual Progress Report

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Coastal marshes provide valuable protection for coastal communities from storm-induced wave, flood, and structural loss in a changing climate

Scientific Reports, 2022

Wetlands such as tidal marshes and mangroves are known to buffer coastal communities from wave, f... more Wetlands such as tidal marshes and mangroves are known to buffer coastal communities from wave, flood, and structural loss during storms. Coastal communities and resource managers seek to understand the ecosystem service value of coastal wetlands for reducing storm-induced flood loss in a changing climate. A recent modeling study found that a tall and dense Phragmites-dominated Piermont Marsh reduced the flood loss in the Village of Piermont, New York, U.S.A. during Superstorm Sandy and the 1% annual chance flood and wave event by 8% and 11%, respectively. Here we used the same modeling approach to examine the marsh’s buffering capacity in a changing climate (from 2020 to 2100), considering a potential marsh restoration plan (from 2020 to 2025) and potential marsh loss due to sea-level rise. Results showed that from 2020 to 2100, the 1% annual chance flood, wave, and structural loss would increase due to sea-level rise, storms, and marsh loss. However, the marsh will buffer ~ 11–12%...

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NCEER strong-motion data base: A user manual for the geobase release (version 1.0 for the SUN3)

""The purpose of this report is to describe the initial implementation of a strong-motion d'ata b... more ""The purpose of this report is to describe the initial implementation of a strong-motion d'ata base developed by Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory (Lamont) under the auspices of the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER). The report details how to install Lamont's data base access tool, GeoBase, and how to obtain strong-motion data. NCEER's strongmotion data base combines features never before available for a single strong-motion data base. These are: (1) both parametric and time-series data are accessible over a computer network; (2) the parametric data are maintained in a relational format; (3) the time-series data are stored on-line; and (4) the time-series are stored in a consistent format (Lamont's own AH, Ad Hoc).

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New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2019

Contents 7.1 Introduction 7.2 New York's critical infrastructure systems and updates from NPCC1 7... more Contents 7.1 Introduction 7.2 New York's critical infrastructure systems and updates from NPCC1 7.3 Key vulnerabilities, dependencies, and interdependencies 7.4 Community and infrastructure resilience case studies 7.5 Insurance and finance strategies for citywide resilience 7.6 Interactions with mitigation: energy and transportation 7.7 Conclusions and recommendations

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Global patterns of tectonic stress

Nature, 1989

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Monte‐Carlo Simulation of the Theoretical Site Response Variability at Turkey Flat, California, Given the Uncertainty in the Geotechnically Derived Input Parameters

Earthquake Spectra, 1993

In the weak-motion phase of the Turkey Flat blind-prediction effort, it was found that given a pa... more In the weak-motion phase of the Turkey Flat blind-prediction effort, it was found that given a particular physical model of each sediment site, various theoretical techniques give similar estimates of the site response. However, it remained to be determined how uncertainties in the physical model parameters influence the theoretical predictions. We have studied this question by propagating the physical parameter uncertainties into the theoretical site-response predictions using monte-carlo simulations. The input-parameter uncertainties were estimated directly from the results of several independent geotechnical studies performed at Turkey Flat. While the computed results generally agree with empirical site-response estimates (average spectral ratios of earthquake recordings), we found that the uncertainties lead to a high degree of variability in the theoretical predictions. Most of this variability comes from poor constraints on the shear-wave velocity and thickness of a thin (∼2m)...

Earthquake Risks and Mitigation in the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut Region

Development of Seismic Hazards Data Base

A seismic hazards data base has been developed as a research tool for the engineering and seismol... more A seismic hazards data base has been developed as a research tool for the engineering and seismology communities. The data base, which is still growing, currently contains information pertinent to a typical seismic hazards investigation: global strong-motion data, U.S. Modified-Mercalli intensity data, historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs, Eastern U.S. strong motion stations, and geotechnical borings (e.g. for New York city) to help in microzonation efforts. The data base is constructed using a relational architecture in which data are stored in tables and are interrelated by key fields. Two interfaces have been designed to make access to the data easy; 1) a single-relation, geographic, interactive graphical data base interface tool (GEOBASE) and 2) a many-relation, menu driven SQL (Structured Query Language) data base interface (DBTOOL).

Seismic Ground Motion and Attenuation Relationships

A key element in the assessment of seismic hazard is the estimation of how energy from a given ea... more A key element in the assessment of seismic hazard is the estimation of how energy from a given earthquake is affected by crustal structure along the propagation path. There are recognized potential seismic sources in the eastern United States which have not generated earthquakes recently enough to have been recorded on modern instruments, and historical observation suggests that large population centers in the east can be affected by distant large events. In this paper, we summarize results of previous studies of attenuation and wave propagation, and illustrate how results from an over-simplified interpretation may be inadequate to accurately assess seismic hazard in a given area. There is a growing body of evidence which suggests that effects once thought to be of second-order importance can, in fact, be dominant factors in controlling ground motions at a site.

THREE-DIMEl ' JSIONAL SEISMIC RA ' Y TRACING IN A LATERALLY fiETEROGENEOUS SPHERICAL EARTH

Chapter 6 “Climate Change and Urban Transportation Systems”

Trench-volcano gap along the Alaska-Aleutian arc: Facts, and speculations on the role of terrigenous sediments for subduction

Island Arcs, Deep Sea Trenches and Back‐Arc Basins

Page 253. TRENCH-VOLCANO GAP ALONG THE ALASKA-ALEUTIAN ARC: FACTS, AND SPECULATIONS ON THE ROLE O... more

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St. Elias, Alaska, earthquake of February 28, 1979: Tectonic setting and precursory seismic pattern

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

The St. Elias earthquake of February 28, 1979 and two earlier earthquakes in the St. Elias Range,... more The St. Elias earthquake of February 28, 1979 and two earlier earthquakes in the St. Elias Range, Alaska, are shown to have involved thrust motion on gently NNW-dipping faults associated with subduction of the Pacific beneath the North American Plate. The space-time patterns of the seismicity located within and in the immediate vicinity of the rupture zone of the St. Elias event in the 16-yr period prior to it, indicate approximately 6.3 yr of relative quiescence before the main shock, interrupted by a burst of seismic activity about 3 yr prior to the event. This observed seismic pattern resembles those reported for other large earthquakes, and therefore, we suggest that the preceding burst of activity may have been a precursor.

Seismicity patterns in Pakistan and northwestern India associated with continental collision

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Data from a local array of 12 short-period seismic stations located near the Tarbela reservoir in... more Data from a local array of 12 short-period seismic stations located near the Tarbela reservoir in the lesser Himalayas of northern Pakistan are analyzed to estimate the anomalous thickness of the crust at the boundary between the colliding Indian and Eurasian subcontinents in the western Himalayas and the Baluchistan arc. Pn and Sn travel times indicate high upper-mantle velocities (8.50 ±0.35 km/sec for Pn at distances up to 1,500 km) combined with a thick crust near the continental plate boundary. Beneath the Himalayas the crust may be 97 ±15 km thick, which suggests it has been doubled in thickness. Local evidence indicates that this thickening occurs by imbricate underthrusting of the Indian shield. In the Indo-Gangetic basin a heretofore unrecognized continuous zone of seismicity was found to strike parallel to the Himalayas about 200 km south of the Himalayan main boundary thrust. This zone rarely contains events with large magnitudes (m > 5); but since it traverses centers...

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