This is an assessment of key economic, environmental and social issues pertaining to jatropha bio... more This is an assessment of key economic, environmental and social issues pertaining to jatropha biofuels, based on almost 150 studies covering 26 countries. The assessment aims to furnish a state-of-the-art overview and identify knowledge gaps. So far, total jatropha production has remained small. Numbers and value of jatropha projects have even declined since 2008.
The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the... more The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the market diffusion of different renewable electricity technologies in the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system will be implemented, and a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that diffusion of onshore wind energy is relatively robust, regardless of technological development, but diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and (existing) biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 hct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 hct/kWh). As a result, total RES-E production costs are 19% lower, and total governmental expenditures for RES-market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario. r
The pulp and paper industry is placed in a unique position as biomass used as feedstock is now in... more The pulp and paper industry is placed in a unique position as biomass used as feedstock is now in increasingly high demand from the energy sector. Increased demand for biomass increases pressure on the availability of this resource, which might strengthen the need for recycling of paper. In this study, we calculate the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions for paper production from three pulp types. Increased recycling enables an increase in biomass availability and reduces life-cycle energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. Recovered paper as feedstock leads to lowest energy use (22GJ/t) and CO2 emissions (−1100kgCO2/t) when biomass not used for paper production is assumed to be converted into bio-energy. Large differences exist between paper grades in e.g. electricity and heat use during production, fibre furnish, filler content and recyclability. We found large variation in energy use over the life-cycle of different grades. However, in all paper grades, life-cycle energy use decreases with increased recycling rates and increased use of recovered fibres. The average life-cycle energy use of the paper mix produced in The Netherlands, where the recycling rate is approximately 75%, is about 14GJ/t. This equals CO2 savings of about 1tCO2/t paper if no recycled fibres would be used.
In the past years, the international trade of various bioenergy commodities has grown rapidly, ye... more In the past years, the international trade of various bioenergy commodities has grown rapidly, yet this growth is also hampered by a number of barriers. The aim of this paper is to obtain an up-to-date overview of what market actors currently perceive as major opportunities and barriers for the current and future development of international bioenergy trade. The work focuses on three internationallytraded bioenergy commodities: bioethanol, biodiesel and wood pellets. Data was collected through an internet-based questionnaire. The majority of the 141 respondents had an industrial background, with other contributions from NGO's scientists, policy makers and other groups (e.g. certifiers). Geographically, two thirds were from (mainly Western) Europe, with other minor contributions from all other continents. Results show that import tariffs and sustainability criteria are perceived as major barriers for the trade of bioethanol (and to a lesser extend of biodiesel), while logistics are seen as a major obstacle, especially for wood pellets. Development of technical standards was deemed more as an opportunity than as a barrier for all three commodities. Phytosanitary measures were not an issue for any of the investigated commodities, but may prevent the trade of other (mainly solid and unrefined) biomass, such as wood chips. Most important drivers for international biomass trade were high (and strongly fluctuating) oil prices, and strong global policies on a) greenhouse gas emission reductions, b) the use of biomass for heating and electricity, and c) the use of biofuels for transportation. Concluding, some barriers for bioenergy trader are commodity specific, and will need specific actions to overcome. As a first step, import tariffs for biofuels could be reduced or abolished, linked to multi-national trade agreements and harmonization (including provisions on technical standards and sustainability requirements) which might provide the necessary preconditions for further sustained growth of international bioenergy trade.
The pre-treatment step has a significant influence on the performance of bioenergy chains, especi... more The pre-treatment step has a significant influence on the performance of bioenergy chains, especially on logistics. Torrefaction, pelletisation and pyrolysis technologies can convert biomass at modest scales into dense energy carriers that ease transportation and handling.
The Dutch policy goal is to achieve a share of 17% renewable electricity in the domestic demand i... more The Dutch policy goal is to achieve a share of 17% renewable electricity in the domestic demand in 2020, corresponding to 18-24 TWh. It is uncertain whether and under which conditions this aim can be achieved. This paper aims to explore the feasible deployment of renewable electricity production in the Netherlands until 2020 by evaluating different images representing policies and societal preferences. Simultaneously, the most promising technologies for different settings are investigated and identified. First Dutch policy goals, governmental policy measures and definitions of renewable electricity are discussed. Second, a comparison is made of four existing studies that analyze the possible developments of renewable electricity production in the coming decades. Finally, three images are set up with emphasis on the different key factors that influence the maximum realizable potential. Results indicate onshore wind, offshore wind and large-scale biomass plants as most promising, robust options in terms of economical performance, ecological sustainability and high technical implementation rate. In the image with high implementation rates, an annual production of 42 TWh may be achieved in 2020, while under stringent economical or ecological criteria, about 25 TWh may be reached. When only the robust options are considered, 9-22 TWh can be realized. The analysis illustrates the importance of taking the different key factors mentioned influencing implementation into account. Doing so allows for identification of robust and less robust technological options under different conditions. r
With its increasing use, the production costs of primary forest fuel (PFF) have declined over the... more With its increasing use, the production costs of primary forest fuel (PFF) have declined over the last three decades in Sweden. The aims of this study are to quantify cost reductions of PFF production as achieved in Sweden over time, to identify underlying reasons for these reductions, and to determine whether the experience curve concept can be used to describe this cost reduction trend. If applicable, the suitability of this concept for future cost reduction analysis and for use in other countries is explored. The analysis was done using average national PFF price data (as a proxy for production costs), a number of production cost studies and data on annual Swedish production volumes. Results show that main cost reductions were achieved in forwarding and chipping of PFF, largely due to learning-by-doing, improved equipment and changes in organization. The price for wood fuel chips does follow an experience curve from 1975 to 2003 (over nine cumulative doublings). The progress ratio (PR) is calculated at 87%. However, given the uncertainty in data on PFF price and annual production volumes, the PR may range between 85% and 88%. It is concluded that in combination with the available supply potential of PFF and with bottom-up assessment of cost reduction opportunities, experience curves can be valuable tools for assessing future PFF production cost development in Sweden. A methodological issue that needs to be further explored is how learning took place between Sweden and other countries, especially with Finland, and how the development of technology and PFF production in these countries should be combined with the Swedish experiences. This would allow the utilization of the experience curve concept to estimate cost developments also in other countries with a large potential to supply PFF, but with less developed PFF supply systems.
ation by competitors and varying transportation costs. In the current Thai situation, only a stat... more ation by competitors and varying transportation costs. In the current Thai situation, only a state-of-the-art combustion plant seems to be able to operate economically on residues. It is concluded that assessing the risks connected to the fuel supply is vital for the successful operation of large-scale bio-energy projects.
In this article the environmental and socio-economical impacts ethanol production from sugarcane ... more In this article the environmental and socio-economical impacts ethanol production from sugarcane in the state of São Paulo (Brazil) are evaluated. Subsequently, an attempt is made to determine to what extent these impacts are a bottleneck for a sustainable and certified ethanol production. 17 environmental and socio-economic areas of concern are analysed. Four parameters are used to evaluate if an area of concern is a bottleneck: (1) the importance of the area of concern, based on the severity of the impact and the frequency of which an aspect is mentioned in the literature as an area of concern, (2) the availability of indicators and criteria, (3) the necessity of improvement strategies to reach compliance with Brazilian and/or (inter)national legislation, standards, guidelines and sustainability criteria, and (4) the impact of these improvement strategies on the costs and potential of ethanol production. The availability of data allowed for the calculation of these costs for 12 criteria; the results indicate an increase of the production costs by 36% compared to convential ethanol production. In total 14 areas of concern are classified as a minor or medium bottleneck. Two possible major bottlenecks are the protection of biodiversity and the production of food resulting from the competition for land with (the expected increase in) sugarcane production. Genetically modified cane is another (potential) major bottleneck considering the potentially large benefits and disadvantages, both which are at this moment highly uncertain.
A GIS based intermodal biomass transport model was developed for the European Union. It was linke... more A GIS based intermodal biomass transport model was developed for the European Union. It was linked to the renewable energy model Green-X updated with biomass trade. Scenarios of renewable energy deployment in the EU27 to 2020 were assessed. Domestic biomass resources will remain the largest source of bioenergy (over 90%). But increasing amounts of solid biomass will be traded (up to 506 PJ in 2020).
ABSTRACT We analyzed the potential of low-value resources available for wood pellet production in... more ABSTRACT We analyzed the potential of low-value resources available for wood pellet production in the southeast of the U.S..•The selected resources include unmerchantable forest residues, pole mill residues and discarded transport pallets.•Up to 5.1 Tg (dry) wood was estimated to be available, sufficient to produce 4.1 Tg wood pellets.•Despite the geographic dispersed supply, pellets production cost are estimated to be cost competitive with conventional pellets (82–100 US$2012 Mg−1).
A workshop entitled ‘Greenhouse gas credits trade versus biomass trade – weighing the benefits’, ... more A workshop entitled ‘Greenhouse gas credits trade versus biomass trade – weighing the benefits’, jointly organised by IEA Bioenergy Tasks 38 (GHG Balances of Biomass and Bioenergy Systems) and 40 (Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing Supply and Demand), and ENOVA, took place in Trondheim, Norway in April 2006. Trade in biomass fuels, electricity from renewable resources, renewable certificates and CO2
We calculated carbon and energy flows in 11 models of FT plants. While uncertainties are substant... more We calculated carbon and energy flows in 11 models of FT plants. While uncertainties are substantial, our best- guess estimates indicate that FT diesel is economically competitive, with fuel costs comparable to fossil diesel derived from oil at 34 $/bbl for GTL, 60 $/bbl for CTL and 75 or more $/bbl for BTL. GHG emissions are substantially higher for CTL, about equal to fossil diesel for GTL and possible (much) lower for BTL. Important uncertainties, to order of tens of percents, were found in the data for component costs, variability in prices of feedstocks and co- products, and the GHG impact of producing biomass.
Given the current high rank of the policy objectives for an increase of the use of renewable ener... more Given the current high rank of the policy objectives for an increase of the use of renewable energy, a solid knowledge of the potentials of biomass for energy is crucial both for policy and industry. Since current potential estimates for the same area and biomass category differ considerably, a harmonisation of such potential estimates is necessary. Pathways to achieve such harmonisation are described in this paper, including proposals to harmonise the assessment methodology, to improve data sources and for an improvement of the characterisation and documentation of studies with the objective to achieve a higher comparability.
The overall objective of the Biomass Energy Europe (BEE) project is to improve the accuracy and c... more The overall objective of the Biomass Energy Europe (BEE) project is to improve the accuracy and comparability of future biomass resource assessments for energy by reducing heterogeneity, increasing harmonisation and exchanging knowledge. First, similarities and differences between the various approaches, methodologies and datasets used in biomass resource assessments are investigated. Particularly the different approaches and methodologies that are used to integrate sustainability criteria into biomass resource assessments are subject of research. Second, a review is carried out of the results of existing biomass resource assessments. The focus is thereby especially on studies that focus on the world and on the EU. Third, a harmonized approach and harmonisation measures for biomass resource assessments are developed. Fourth, the harmonised approach and harmonisation measures are than applied to several case studies. At this moment, phase one and two are nearly completed and in this ...
Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSSs) are interactive, computer-based systems designed to supp... more Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSSs) are interactive, computer-based systems designed to support policy making. Important components of SDSSs are models that can be used to assess the impact of possible decisions. These models usually simulate complex spatio-temporal phenomena, with input variables and parameters that are often hard to measure. The resulting model uncertainty is however rarely communicated to the user of the SDSS, mostly because the user prefers clear and unambiguous results, or because of limitations of the used software regarding uncertainty analysis. Current SDSSs thus yield clear, but therefore sometimes deceptively precise outputs. Yet, calculation and communication of the uncertainty and its distribution in space and time makes the model more transparent and the output more informative, which gives policy makers a better basis for decision making. So, there is a strong need to include uncertainty in SDSSs. This requires modelling tools to calculate uncerta...
This is an assessment of key economic, environmental and social issues pertaining to jatropha bio... more This is an assessment of key economic, environmental and social issues pertaining to jatropha biofuels, based on almost 150 studies covering 26 countries. The assessment aims to furnish a state-of-the-art overview and identify knowledge gaps. So far, total jatropha production has remained small. Numbers and value of jatropha projects have even declined since 2008.
The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the... more The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the market diffusion of different renewable electricity technologies in the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system will be implemented, and a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that diffusion of onshore wind energy is relatively robust, regardless of technological development, but diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and (existing) biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 hct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 hct/kWh). As a result, total RES-E production costs are 19% lower, and total governmental expenditures for RES-market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario. r
The pulp and paper industry is placed in a unique position as biomass used as feedstock is now in... more The pulp and paper industry is placed in a unique position as biomass used as feedstock is now in increasingly high demand from the energy sector. Increased demand for biomass increases pressure on the availability of this resource, which might strengthen the need for recycling of paper. In this study, we calculate the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions for paper production from three pulp types. Increased recycling enables an increase in biomass availability and reduces life-cycle energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. Recovered paper as feedstock leads to lowest energy use (22GJ/t) and CO2 emissions (−1100kgCO2/t) when biomass not used for paper production is assumed to be converted into bio-energy. Large differences exist between paper grades in e.g. electricity and heat use during production, fibre furnish, filler content and recyclability. We found large variation in energy use over the life-cycle of different grades. However, in all paper grades, life-cycle energy use decreases with increased recycling rates and increased use of recovered fibres. The average life-cycle energy use of the paper mix produced in The Netherlands, where the recycling rate is approximately 75%, is about 14GJ/t. This equals CO2 savings of about 1tCO2/t paper if no recycled fibres would be used.
In the past years, the international trade of various bioenergy commodities has grown rapidly, ye... more In the past years, the international trade of various bioenergy commodities has grown rapidly, yet this growth is also hampered by a number of barriers. The aim of this paper is to obtain an up-to-date overview of what market actors currently perceive as major opportunities and barriers for the current and future development of international bioenergy trade. The work focuses on three internationallytraded bioenergy commodities: bioethanol, biodiesel and wood pellets. Data was collected through an internet-based questionnaire. The majority of the 141 respondents had an industrial background, with other contributions from NGO's scientists, policy makers and other groups (e.g. certifiers). Geographically, two thirds were from (mainly Western) Europe, with other minor contributions from all other continents. Results show that import tariffs and sustainability criteria are perceived as major barriers for the trade of bioethanol (and to a lesser extend of biodiesel), while logistics are seen as a major obstacle, especially for wood pellets. Development of technical standards was deemed more as an opportunity than as a barrier for all three commodities. Phytosanitary measures were not an issue for any of the investigated commodities, but may prevent the trade of other (mainly solid and unrefined) biomass, such as wood chips. Most important drivers for international biomass trade were high (and strongly fluctuating) oil prices, and strong global policies on a) greenhouse gas emission reductions, b) the use of biomass for heating and electricity, and c) the use of biofuels for transportation. Concluding, some barriers for bioenergy trader are commodity specific, and will need specific actions to overcome. As a first step, import tariffs for biofuels could be reduced or abolished, linked to multi-national trade agreements and harmonization (including provisions on technical standards and sustainability requirements) which might provide the necessary preconditions for further sustained growth of international bioenergy trade.
The pre-treatment step has a significant influence on the performance of bioenergy chains, especi... more The pre-treatment step has a significant influence on the performance of bioenergy chains, especially on logistics. Torrefaction, pelletisation and pyrolysis technologies can convert biomass at modest scales into dense energy carriers that ease transportation and handling.
The Dutch policy goal is to achieve a share of 17% renewable electricity in the domestic demand i... more The Dutch policy goal is to achieve a share of 17% renewable electricity in the domestic demand in 2020, corresponding to 18-24 TWh. It is uncertain whether and under which conditions this aim can be achieved. This paper aims to explore the feasible deployment of renewable electricity production in the Netherlands until 2020 by evaluating different images representing policies and societal preferences. Simultaneously, the most promising technologies for different settings are investigated and identified. First Dutch policy goals, governmental policy measures and definitions of renewable electricity are discussed. Second, a comparison is made of four existing studies that analyze the possible developments of renewable electricity production in the coming decades. Finally, three images are set up with emphasis on the different key factors that influence the maximum realizable potential. Results indicate onshore wind, offshore wind and large-scale biomass plants as most promising, robust options in terms of economical performance, ecological sustainability and high technical implementation rate. In the image with high implementation rates, an annual production of 42 TWh may be achieved in 2020, while under stringent economical or ecological criteria, about 25 TWh may be reached. When only the robust options are considered, 9-22 TWh can be realized. The analysis illustrates the importance of taking the different key factors mentioned influencing implementation into account. Doing so allows for identification of robust and less robust technological options under different conditions. r
With its increasing use, the production costs of primary forest fuel (PFF) have declined over the... more With its increasing use, the production costs of primary forest fuel (PFF) have declined over the last three decades in Sweden. The aims of this study are to quantify cost reductions of PFF production as achieved in Sweden over time, to identify underlying reasons for these reductions, and to determine whether the experience curve concept can be used to describe this cost reduction trend. If applicable, the suitability of this concept for future cost reduction analysis and for use in other countries is explored. The analysis was done using average national PFF price data (as a proxy for production costs), a number of production cost studies and data on annual Swedish production volumes. Results show that main cost reductions were achieved in forwarding and chipping of PFF, largely due to learning-by-doing, improved equipment and changes in organization. The price for wood fuel chips does follow an experience curve from 1975 to 2003 (over nine cumulative doublings). The progress ratio (PR) is calculated at 87%. However, given the uncertainty in data on PFF price and annual production volumes, the PR may range between 85% and 88%. It is concluded that in combination with the available supply potential of PFF and with bottom-up assessment of cost reduction opportunities, experience curves can be valuable tools for assessing future PFF production cost development in Sweden. A methodological issue that needs to be further explored is how learning took place between Sweden and other countries, especially with Finland, and how the development of technology and PFF production in these countries should be combined with the Swedish experiences. This would allow the utilization of the experience curve concept to estimate cost developments also in other countries with a large potential to supply PFF, but with less developed PFF supply systems.
ation by competitors and varying transportation costs. In the current Thai situation, only a stat... more ation by competitors and varying transportation costs. In the current Thai situation, only a state-of-the-art combustion plant seems to be able to operate economically on residues. It is concluded that assessing the risks connected to the fuel supply is vital for the successful operation of large-scale bio-energy projects.
In this article the environmental and socio-economical impacts ethanol production from sugarcane ... more In this article the environmental and socio-economical impacts ethanol production from sugarcane in the state of São Paulo (Brazil) are evaluated. Subsequently, an attempt is made to determine to what extent these impacts are a bottleneck for a sustainable and certified ethanol production. 17 environmental and socio-economic areas of concern are analysed. Four parameters are used to evaluate if an area of concern is a bottleneck: (1) the importance of the area of concern, based on the severity of the impact and the frequency of which an aspect is mentioned in the literature as an area of concern, (2) the availability of indicators and criteria, (3) the necessity of improvement strategies to reach compliance with Brazilian and/or (inter)national legislation, standards, guidelines and sustainability criteria, and (4) the impact of these improvement strategies on the costs and potential of ethanol production. The availability of data allowed for the calculation of these costs for 12 criteria; the results indicate an increase of the production costs by 36% compared to convential ethanol production. In total 14 areas of concern are classified as a minor or medium bottleneck. Two possible major bottlenecks are the protection of biodiversity and the production of food resulting from the competition for land with (the expected increase in) sugarcane production. Genetically modified cane is another (potential) major bottleneck considering the potentially large benefits and disadvantages, both which are at this moment highly uncertain.
A GIS based intermodal biomass transport model was developed for the European Union. It was linke... more A GIS based intermodal biomass transport model was developed for the European Union. It was linked to the renewable energy model Green-X updated with biomass trade. Scenarios of renewable energy deployment in the EU27 to 2020 were assessed. Domestic biomass resources will remain the largest source of bioenergy (over 90%). But increasing amounts of solid biomass will be traded (up to 506 PJ in 2020).
ABSTRACT We analyzed the potential of low-value resources available for wood pellet production in... more ABSTRACT We analyzed the potential of low-value resources available for wood pellet production in the southeast of the U.S..•The selected resources include unmerchantable forest residues, pole mill residues and discarded transport pallets.•Up to 5.1 Tg (dry) wood was estimated to be available, sufficient to produce 4.1 Tg wood pellets.•Despite the geographic dispersed supply, pellets production cost are estimated to be cost competitive with conventional pellets (82–100 US$2012 Mg−1).
A workshop entitled ‘Greenhouse gas credits trade versus biomass trade – weighing the benefits’, ... more A workshop entitled ‘Greenhouse gas credits trade versus biomass trade – weighing the benefits’, jointly organised by IEA Bioenergy Tasks 38 (GHG Balances of Biomass and Bioenergy Systems) and 40 (Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing Supply and Demand), and ENOVA, took place in Trondheim, Norway in April 2006. Trade in biomass fuels, electricity from renewable resources, renewable certificates and CO2
We calculated carbon and energy flows in 11 models of FT plants. While uncertainties are substant... more We calculated carbon and energy flows in 11 models of FT plants. While uncertainties are substantial, our best- guess estimates indicate that FT diesel is economically competitive, with fuel costs comparable to fossil diesel derived from oil at 34 $/bbl for GTL, 60 $/bbl for CTL and 75 or more $/bbl for BTL. GHG emissions are substantially higher for CTL, about equal to fossil diesel for GTL and possible (much) lower for BTL. Important uncertainties, to order of tens of percents, were found in the data for component costs, variability in prices of feedstocks and co- products, and the GHG impact of producing biomass.
Given the current high rank of the policy objectives for an increase of the use of renewable ener... more Given the current high rank of the policy objectives for an increase of the use of renewable energy, a solid knowledge of the potentials of biomass for energy is crucial both for policy and industry. Since current potential estimates for the same area and biomass category differ considerably, a harmonisation of such potential estimates is necessary. Pathways to achieve such harmonisation are described in this paper, including proposals to harmonise the assessment methodology, to improve data sources and for an improvement of the characterisation and documentation of studies with the objective to achieve a higher comparability.
The overall objective of the Biomass Energy Europe (BEE) project is to improve the accuracy and c... more The overall objective of the Biomass Energy Europe (BEE) project is to improve the accuracy and comparability of future biomass resource assessments for energy by reducing heterogeneity, increasing harmonisation and exchanging knowledge. First, similarities and differences between the various approaches, methodologies and datasets used in biomass resource assessments are investigated. Particularly the different approaches and methodologies that are used to integrate sustainability criteria into biomass resource assessments are subject of research. Second, a review is carried out of the results of existing biomass resource assessments. The focus is thereby especially on studies that focus on the world and on the EU. Third, a harmonized approach and harmonisation measures for biomass resource assessments are developed. Fourth, the harmonised approach and harmonisation measures are than applied to several case studies. At this moment, phase one and two are nearly completed and in this ...
Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSSs) are interactive, computer-based systems designed to supp... more Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSSs) are interactive, computer-based systems designed to support policy making. Important components of SDSSs are models that can be used to assess the impact of possible decisions. These models usually simulate complex spatio-temporal phenomena, with input variables and parameters that are often hard to measure. The resulting model uncertainty is however rarely communicated to the user of the SDSS, mostly because the user prefers clear and unambiguous results, or because of limitations of the used software regarding uncertainty analysis. Current SDSSs thus yield clear, but therefore sometimes deceptively precise outputs. Yet, calculation and communication of the uncertainty and its distribution in space and time makes the model more transparent and the output more informative, which gives policy makers a better basis for decision making. So, there is a strong need to include uncertainty in SDSSs. This requires modelling tools to calculate uncerta...
Uploads
Papers by Andre Faaij