This article highlights the United Nations’ potential contribution in the niche of crisis managem... more This article highlights the United Nations’ potential contribution in the niche of crisis management. Drawing from the crisis-based approach’s insights on crisis mediation efficacy, and Carnevale’s conceptualization of the mediator’s various strengths as the sources of leverage in mediation, the study explores UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov’s mediation during the Gaza-Israel crisis in 2018–2019. I argue that a combination of contextual and behavioral factors enabled Mladenov to influence the crisis bargaining environment and pull Israel and Hamas back from the brink. These factors included both parties’ need to avoid further escalation; the mediating skills of the UN envoy; the envoy’s reputation, which led others to perceive him as the right person for the mediation mission; the UN mediator’s use of a blend of strategies and tactics; and Mladenov’s ability to apply a range of strengths, including hard power.
The failure of the most recent peace efforts in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, by Secretary of... more The failure of the most recent peace efforts in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, by Secretary of State Kerry, followed by the Palestinians’ decision to pursue the unilateral track, underlines the need to examine the factors that led to this failure and to draw lessons that perhaps will provide a better understanding of what is possible to achieve in a future negotiation. The following analysis indicates that the failure of the process can be attributed to structural factors, substantive factors and the third party’s conduct, including setting a goal that was unrealistic, asymmetrical conduct and a lack of understanding of the complex political and cultural factors on both sides. Any attempt to resume the peace talks between the parties will have to take these factors into consideration.
The study presents an analysis of the conflict resolution process in the Aceh conflict between th... more The study presents an analysis of the conflict resolution process in the Aceh conflict between the government of Indonesia (GoI) and the Free Aceh Movement (“Gerekan Aceh Merdeka” or GAM). Starting with unofficial efforts by the Indonesian side from mid-2003, which eventually led the parties to the negotiation table and to the signing of the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in August 2005, the peace process put an end to the 30-year conflict over the independence of Aceh. The peaceful resolution of the Aceh conflict will be examined using readiness theory, which posits the factors that lead parties to negotiate and indicates which factors contribute to success in reaching a mutual agreement. The aim of this study is twofold. The first aim is to better understand the factors that led to the MoU. The second aim of this research is to offer a systematic examination of the assumptions of readiness theory, which have been the subject of few case studies to date. The study's...
In this paper, I explore the prenegotiation process between Israel and the Palestine Liberation O... more In this paper, I explore the prenegotiation process between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which extended over eight months in 1993 and ended with the signing of the Declaration of Principles (DOP) in September of that year. During this period, the parties committed to recognize each other and conduct future negotiations with the aim of ending a century of conflict. The DOP was considered a significant breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian relations. Scholars of Conflict Resolution typically view the discussions that led to the DOP as a positive example of how antagonists in ethno-national conflicts begin a course of constructive dialogue and conciliation. Applying prenegotiation theory, I question this assumption and argue that the prenegotiation process that took place between January and August 1993 leading the parties to commit to official negotiations and sign the DOP was in fact no more than a means of conflict management adjusting to contemporary circum...
... The pre-negotiation stage was launched with preparations for the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit in la... more ... The pre-negotiation stage was launched with preparations for the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit in late June 2007 and ended at the conclusion of the Annapolis conference in November 2007, when the parties agreed to initiate negotia-tions toward a final status agreement with the ...
This study explores the relevance of readiness theory’s analytical framework in illuminating the ... more This study explores the relevance of readiness theory’s analytical framework in illuminating the fundamentals that contribute to the de-escalation process in international crises. By applying this analytical framework to the U.S.-North Korea crisis management episode of 2017–2018, this study elucidates the interplay of elements that led to the winding down of the intense crisis and to the parties’ agreement to formally embark on negotiations at the end of the Singapore Summit in June 2018. The study shows how the multiple variables underlying the movements in conflict transformation, as outlined by readiness theory, can help to explain the effect of bilateral strategies applied by the U.S. and North Korea and the role of third-party involvement by South Korea and China in managing the crisis.
This study presents a comparative analysis of two case studies in which attempts were made to res... more This study presents a comparative analysis of two case studies in which attempts were made to resolve intractable ethno-national conflicts: the peace process undertaken in Aceh between the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement, which led to the signing of the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (mou) ending the conflict in Aceh; and the process conducted in the Sri Lanka conflict from 2001 through 2004 between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers, which failed to yield an agreement. The two peace processes will be examined using readiness theory, which focuses on the factors influencing the decision to enter into negotiations. This article also attempts to extend the hypotheses of readiness theory to explore the process of concession-making during the negotiations that took place in the two case studies. The findings indicate that the theory does contribute to understanding the dynamics of the pre-negotiation in both case studies and that applying its hypot...
This article examines the factors that contributed to the failure of the last major effort, which... more This article examines the factors that contributed to the failure of the last major effort, which was carried out by us Secretary of State John Kerry, to facilitate a Final Status Agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The analysis is based on an understanding that every effort to resolve this intractable conflict, even if unsuccessful, is worthy of examination, which can yield interesting observations and insights that may inform future attempts to find a solution. As President Trump’s administration makes intensive efforts to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, and the us Middle East negotiation delegation shuttles intensively between the parties and between major regional actors to explore the possibility of renewing official negotiations, this seems like an opportune time to review the major factors that affected the outcome of the previous peace talks.
This research examines Zartman’s formulation of mutually hurting stalemate and mutually enticing ... more This research examines Zartman’s formulation of mutually hurting stalemate and mutually enticing opportunity as variables pushing and pulling parties toward agreement during the negotiation that took place between southern and northern Sudan between 2002 and 2005. This case shows that ripeness theory and formulating the push and pull factors indeed help clarify what brought the parties to negotiate and reach an agreement. However, we contend that the push and pull formulation in its current form might not fully account for the complexity of processes in ethno-political intractable conflicts, such as in Sudan, when the process is characterized by the parties’ mutual distrust and the deep involvement of third parties, driven by their own domestic and foreign policy interests.
This article highlights the United Nations’ potential contribution in the niche of crisis managem... more This article highlights the United Nations’ potential contribution in the niche of crisis management. Drawing from the crisis-based approach’s insights on crisis mediation efficacy, and Carnevale’s conceptualization of the mediator’s various strengths as the sources of leverage in mediation, the study explores UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov’s mediation during the Gaza-Israel crisis in 2018–2019. I argue that a combination of contextual and behavioral factors enabled Mladenov to influence the crisis bargaining environment and pull Israel and Hamas back from the brink. These factors included both parties’ need to avoid further escalation; the mediating skills of the UN envoy; the envoy’s reputation, which led others to perceive him as the right person for the mediation mission; the UN mediator’s use of a blend of strategies and tactics; and Mladenov’s ability to apply a range of strengths, including hard power.
The failure of the most recent peace efforts in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, by Secretary of... more The failure of the most recent peace efforts in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, by Secretary of State Kerry, followed by the Palestinians’ decision to pursue the unilateral track, underlines the need to examine the factors that led to this failure and to draw lessons that perhaps will provide a better understanding of what is possible to achieve in a future negotiation. The following analysis indicates that the failure of the process can be attributed to structural factors, substantive factors and the third party’s conduct, including setting a goal that was unrealistic, asymmetrical conduct and a lack of understanding of the complex political and cultural factors on both sides. Any attempt to resume the peace talks between the parties will have to take these factors into consideration.
The study presents an analysis of the conflict resolution process in the Aceh conflict between th... more The study presents an analysis of the conflict resolution process in the Aceh conflict between the government of Indonesia (GoI) and the Free Aceh Movement (“Gerekan Aceh Merdeka” or GAM). Starting with unofficial efforts by the Indonesian side from mid-2003, which eventually led the parties to the negotiation table and to the signing of the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in August 2005, the peace process put an end to the 30-year conflict over the independence of Aceh. The peaceful resolution of the Aceh conflict will be examined using readiness theory, which posits the factors that lead parties to negotiate and indicates which factors contribute to success in reaching a mutual agreement. The aim of this study is twofold. The first aim is to better understand the factors that led to the MoU. The second aim of this research is to offer a systematic examination of the assumptions of readiness theory, which have been the subject of few case studies to date. The study's...
In this paper, I explore the prenegotiation process between Israel and the Palestine Liberation O... more In this paper, I explore the prenegotiation process between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which extended over eight months in 1993 and ended with the signing of the Declaration of Principles (DOP) in September of that year. During this period, the parties committed to recognize each other and conduct future negotiations with the aim of ending a century of conflict. The DOP was considered a significant breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian relations. Scholars of Conflict Resolution typically view the discussions that led to the DOP as a positive example of how antagonists in ethno-national conflicts begin a course of constructive dialogue and conciliation. Applying prenegotiation theory, I question this assumption and argue that the prenegotiation process that took place between January and August 1993 leading the parties to commit to official negotiations and sign the DOP was in fact no more than a means of conflict management adjusting to contemporary circum...
... The pre-negotiation stage was launched with preparations for the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit in la... more ... The pre-negotiation stage was launched with preparations for the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit in late June 2007 and ended at the conclusion of the Annapolis conference in November 2007, when the parties agreed to initiate negotia-tions toward a final status agreement with the ...
This study explores the relevance of readiness theory’s analytical framework in illuminating the ... more This study explores the relevance of readiness theory’s analytical framework in illuminating the fundamentals that contribute to the de-escalation process in international crises. By applying this analytical framework to the U.S.-North Korea crisis management episode of 2017–2018, this study elucidates the interplay of elements that led to the winding down of the intense crisis and to the parties’ agreement to formally embark on negotiations at the end of the Singapore Summit in June 2018. The study shows how the multiple variables underlying the movements in conflict transformation, as outlined by readiness theory, can help to explain the effect of bilateral strategies applied by the U.S. and North Korea and the role of third-party involvement by South Korea and China in managing the crisis.
This study presents a comparative analysis of two case studies in which attempts were made to res... more This study presents a comparative analysis of two case studies in which attempts were made to resolve intractable ethno-national conflicts: the peace process undertaken in Aceh between the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement, which led to the signing of the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (mou) ending the conflict in Aceh; and the process conducted in the Sri Lanka conflict from 2001 through 2004 between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers, which failed to yield an agreement. The two peace processes will be examined using readiness theory, which focuses on the factors influencing the decision to enter into negotiations. This article also attempts to extend the hypotheses of readiness theory to explore the process of concession-making during the negotiations that took place in the two case studies. The findings indicate that the theory does contribute to understanding the dynamics of the pre-negotiation in both case studies and that applying its hypot...
This article examines the factors that contributed to the failure of the last major effort, which... more This article examines the factors that contributed to the failure of the last major effort, which was carried out by us Secretary of State John Kerry, to facilitate a Final Status Agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The analysis is based on an understanding that every effort to resolve this intractable conflict, even if unsuccessful, is worthy of examination, which can yield interesting observations and insights that may inform future attempts to find a solution. As President Trump’s administration makes intensive efforts to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, and the us Middle East negotiation delegation shuttles intensively between the parties and between major regional actors to explore the possibility of renewing official negotiations, this seems like an opportune time to review the major factors that affected the outcome of the previous peace talks.
This research examines Zartman’s formulation of mutually hurting stalemate and mutually enticing ... more This research examines Zartman’s formulation of mutually hurting stalemate and mutually enticing opportunity as variables pushing and pulling parties toward agreement during the negotiation that took place between southern and northern Sudan between 2002 and 2005. This case shows that ripeness theory and formulating the push and pull factors indeed help clarify what brought the parties to negotiate and reach an agreement. However, we contend that the push and pull formulation in its current form might not fully account for the complexity of processes in ethno-political intractable conflicts, such as in Sudan, when the process is characterized by the parties’ mutual distrust and the deep involvement of third parties, driven by their own domestic and foreign policy interests.
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Papers by Amira Schiff