Unpublished papers by Alexander Klein
This paper offers the first multivariate regression study of international migration in early mod... more This paper offers the first multivariate regression study of international migration in early modern Europe. Using unique eighteenth-century data about maritime workers, we created a data set of migration flows among European countries to examine the role of factors related to geography, population, language, the market and chain migration in explaining the migration of these workers across countries. We show that among all factors considered in our multivariate analysis, the geographical characteristics of the destination countries, size of port towns, and chain migration are among the most robust and quantitatively the most important factors influencing cross-country migration flows.
Papers by Alexander Klein
The Economic History Review, 2017
The version presented here is a working paper or pre-print that may be later published elsewhere.... more The version presented here is a working paper or pre-print that may be later published elsewhere. If a published version is known of, the above WRAP url will contain details on finding it.
This paper reconstructs GDP from the output side for medieval and early modern Britain. In contra... more This paper reconstructs GDP from the output side for medieval and early modern Britain. In contrast to the long run stagnation of living standards suggested by daily real wage rates, output-based GDP per capita exhibits modest but positive trend growth. One way of reconciling the two series is through variation in the annual number of days worked, but there are also reasons to doubt the representativeness of the sharp rise and fall of daily real wage rates in the late middle ages, which creates the impression of no trend improvement of living standards.
This paper examines home bias in U.S. domestic trade in 1949 and 2007. We use a unique data set o... more This paper examines home bias in U.S. domestic trade in 1949 and 2007. We use a unique data set of 1949 carload waybill statistics produced by the Interstate Commerce Commission, and 2007 Commodity Flow Survey data. The results show that home bias was considerably smaller in 1949 than in 2007 and that home bias in 1949 was even negative for several commodities. We argue that the difference between the geographical distribution of the manufacturing activities in 1949 and that of 2007 is an important factor explaining the differences in the magnitudes of home-bias estimates in those years.
We present revised growth accounts for three socialist economies between 1950 and 1989. Governmen... more We present revised growth accounts for three socialist economies between 1950 and 1989. Government statistics reported distorted measures for both the rate and trajectory of productivity growth in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Researchers have benefited from revised output data, but continued to use official statistics on capital input, or estimated capital stock from official investment data. Investment levels and rates of capital accumulations were, in fact, much lower than officially claimed and over-reporting worsened over time. Sluggish factor accumulation, specifically declining equipment investment and labor input, contributed much more to the socialist growth failure of the 1980s than previously thought.
This paper uses spatial differencing to estimate parameters in sample selection models with unobs... more This paper uses spatial differencing to estimate parameters in sample selection models with unobserved heterogeneity. We show that under the assumption of smooth changes across the space of unobserved site-specific heterogeneity and selection probability, key parameters of a sample selection model are identified. A simple estimation procedure is proposed and the formula for the estimator of the standard error is derived.
Political Economy - Development: Domestic Development Strategies eJournal, 2015
We investigate the role of industrial structure in labor productivity growth in U.S. cities betwe... more We investigate the role of industrial structure in labor productivity growth in U.S. cities between 1880 and 1930 using a new dataset constructed from the Census of Manufactures. We find that increases in specialization were associated with faster productivity growth but that diversity only had positive effects on productivity performance in large cities. We interpret our results as providing strong support for the importance of Marshallian externalities. Industrial specialization increased considerably in U.S. cities in the early 20th century, probably as a result of improved transportation, and we estimate that this resulted in significant gains in labor productivity.
Political Economy - Development: Domestic Development Strategies eJournal, 2015
We investigate the role of industrial structure in labor productivity growth in U.S. cities betwe... more We investigate the role of industrial structure in labor productivity growth in U.S. cities between 1880 and 1930 using a new dataset constructed from the Census of Manufactures. We find that increases in specialization were associated with faster productivity growth but that diversity only had positive effects on productivity performance in large cities. We interpret our results as providing strong support for the importance of Marshallian externalities. Industrial specialization increased considerably in U.S. cities in the early 20th century, probably as a result of improved transportation, and we estimate that this resulted in significant gains in labor productivity.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016
This paper uses spatial differencing to estimate parameters in sample selection models with unobs... more This paper uses spatial differencing to estimate parameters in sample selection models with unobserved heterogeneity. We show that under the assumption of smooth changes across the space of unobserved site-specific heterogeneity and selection probability, key parameters of a sample selection model are identified. A simple estimation procedure is proposed and the formula for the estimator of the standard error is derived.
The Economic History Review, 2018
We present new investment data and revised growth accounts for three socialist economies between ... more We present new investment data and revised growth accounts for three socialist economies between 1950 and 1989. Government statistics reported distorted measures for both the rate and trajectory of productivity growth in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Researchers have benefited from revised output data, but continued to use official statistics on capital input, or estimated capital stock from official investment data. Investment levels and rates of capital accumulations were, in fact, much lower than officially claimed and over-reporting worsened over time. Sluggish factor accumulation, declining equipment investment and labor input, contributed much more to the socialist growth failure of the 1980s than previously thought.
This paper examines Gibrat's law in England and Wales between 1801 and 1911using a unique data se... more This paper examines Gibrat's law in England and Wales between 1801 and 1911using a unique data set covering the entire settlement size distribution.We find that Gibrat's law broadly holds even in the face of population doubling every fifty years,an industrial and transportrevolution, and the absence of zoning laws to constrain growth. The result is strongest for the later period, and in counties most affected by the industrial revolution. The exception were villages in areas bypassed by the industrial revolution.We argue that agglomeration externalities balanced urban disamenities such as commuting costs and poor living conditions to ensure steady growth of many places, rather than exceptional growth of few.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2005
This paper deals with the rural-urban migration of families in the last decades of the 19 th cent... more This paper deals with the rural-urban migration of families in the last decades of the 19 th century in one of the most developed regions of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy-the Pilsen region. The analysis indicates that the household head's expected real rural-urban wage gap was not the main factor behind migration. Instead, the observed behavior is consistent with families maximizing a dynastic utility function such that it was the future prospects of children which triggered migration. The results are not based on tracing of families in time but rely on identifying a control group of stayers. Specifically, I compare the structure of migrant families at the time of arrival to an urban area with that of families who stayed in the hinterlands and to decipher migration motifs. Abstrakt Tato studie se zabývá migrací rodin z venkova do města v posledních desetiletích devatenáctého století v plzeňském regionu. Analýza ukazuje, že rozdíl ve mzdách mezi venkovem a městem není hlavní příčinou migrace. Rodina se rozhoduje na základě maximalizace dynastické funkce užitečnosti čímž budoucnost dětí sehrává výraznou roli při rozhodování jestli migrovat nebo ne. Analýza je provedna porovnáváním rodinné struktury migrantů v čase příjezdu do města a rodinné struktury těch, kteří zůstali na venkově.
The Economic History Review, 2015
A shift in occupational structure towards non-agricultural activities is widely viewed as a key c... more A shift in occupational structure towards non-agricultural activities is widely viewed as a key component of European economic growth during the early modern 'Little Divergence'. Yet little is known about this process in those parts of eastern-central Europe that experienced the early modern 'second serfdom', the massive increase in the institutional powers of landlords over the rural population. We analyze non-agricultural occupations under the second serfdom using data on 6,983 Bohemian villages in 1654. Bohemia resembled other eastern-central, nordic and southern European economies in having a lower percentage of non-agricultural activities than western Europe. But Bohemian serfs engaged in a wide array of industrial and commercial activities whose intensity varied significantly with village characteristics. Nonagricultural activity showed a significant positive relationship with village size, pastoral agriculture, sub-peasant social strata, Jews, freemen, female household heads, and village mills, and a significant negative relationship with arable agriculture and urban agglomerations. Non-agricultural activity was also positively associated with landlord presence in the village, although the relationship turned negative at higher values and landlord presence reversed the positive effects of female headship and mills. Under the second serfdom, landlords encouraged serf activities from which they could extort rents, while stifling others which threatened their interests. 1 We would like to thank Lenka Matušíková, Pavla Jirková, and Helena Klímová for generous help with historical data sources and useful discussions of the Berní Rula; Josef Grulich and Eduard Maur for illuminating conversations about the economic history of early modern Bohemia; Steve Broadberry, Tracy Dennison, and Jean-Laurent Rosenthal for stimulating comments on earlier drafts; and seminar participants at LSE, Caltech, the EHS 2013 meeting in York, and the EHES 2013 meeting in London for helpful comments.
Growth and Change, 2015
Despite the richness of contributions on the effects of agglomeration on economic activity, the e... more Despite the richness of contributions on the effects of agglomeration on economic activity, the empirical evidence still falls short, especially at the microeconomic level, where they should matter the most. This paper adds to this literature by performing an empirical exploration of the role of Marshallian, Jacobian, and Porterian externalities for the productivity of Italian firms. In particular, a large dataset of small and medium enterprises is first employed to estimate firm-level total factor productivity (TFP). Then dynamic panel and instrumental variables estimation methods are used to assess the effects of agglomeration externalities. The findings seem to suggest that these effects may vary depending whether the level or growth of TFP is considered. While the first is mostly influenced by the extent of Marshallian economies, the latter is higher when Jacobian and Porterian economies are at work.
British Economic Growth, 1270–1870
GDP and GDP Per Head Modern economic growth is defined by the sustained improvement in GDP per he... more GDP and GDP Per Head Modern economic growth is defined by the sustained improvement in GDP per head. From 1850 to 2015 while population trebled, real GDP per head in Spain experienced nearly a 16-fold increase, growing at an annual rate of 1.7% (Fig. 2.1 and Table 2.1). GDP growth was intensive, that is, driven by the advance in GDP per person, but for exceptional periods of Civil War, Depression, and Recession (Fig. 2.2). Such an improvement took place at an uneven pace. Per capita GDP grew at 0.7% over 1850-1950, doubling its initial level. During the next quarter of a century, the Golden Age, its pace accelerated more than sevenfold so, by 1974, per capita income was 3.6 times higher than in 1950. Although the economy decelerated from 1974 onwards, and its rate of growth per head shrank to one-half that of the Golden Age, per capita GDP more than doubled between 1974 and 2007. The Great Recession (2008-2013) shrank per capita income by 11%, but, by 2015, its level was still 83% higher than at the time of Spain's EU accession (1985). Different long swings can be distinguished in which growth rates deviate from the long-run trend as a result of economic policies, access to international markets, and technological change. Growth rates, measured as average annual logarithmic rates of variation, are provided in Table 2.1
The version presented here is a working paper or pre-print that may be later published elsewhere.... more The version presented here is a working paper or pre-print that may be later published elsewhere. If a published version is known of, the above WRAP url will contain details on finding it.
1870 to the Present
Introduction Gross domestic product consists of a wide array of activities, and the structure of ... more Introduction Gross domestic product consists of a wide array of activities, and the structure of those activities has changed over time as the European economy has developed. Economists have long classified activities on the basis of a distinction between agriculture, industry, and services, although there has been less than complete agreement on which occupations to include in each sector (Clark 1951). In this chapter we will follow the modern European convention of including forestry and fishing together with farming as “agriculture,” and include mineral extraction together with manufacturing, construction, and gas, electricity and water, in “industry.” Services then covers all other activities, including transport and communications, distribution, finance, personal and professional services, and government. We will examine the development of the three main sectors and also consider the effects of the major structural shifts, as the share of the labor force declined in agriculture and increased in industry and services between 1870 and 1914. For an economy to have high living standards, it is necessary to have high productivity in all sectors. However, it is also clear that the structure of the economy matters, because value added per worker is higher in some sectors than in others. Since agriculture has historically tended to be the lowest value-added sector, the share of the labor force in agriculture turns out to be a very good predictor of per capita income.
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Unpublished papers by Alexander Klein
Papers by Alexander Klein