With the aid of the St. Louis equation and the general method of moments (GMM) approach, this stu... more With the aid of the St. Louis equation and the general method of moments (GMM) approach, this study investigates the relative effect of monetary and fiscal policy on economic development in Africa within the period 1995–2016. The study shows that money supply has significant positive relationship with GDP per capita while interest rate has significant negative effects. Government spending has significant negative relationship with GDP per capita while taxation has significant positive effects. Other macroeconomic variables such as primary enrollment and openness to trade have significant positive effects while inflation has negative effects. The environmental variable, carbon emissions, has significant negative effects. Among the institutional variables, corruption has significant negative effects. The results therefore support both Keynesian and monetarist positive policy assertions: Money supply, interest rate, government spending and taxation are viable instruments to stabilize o...
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2021
The study examines the asymmetric effect of oil price on the exchange rate and stock price using ... more The study examines the asymmetric effect of oil price on the exchange rate and stock price using the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) technique on the time-series data spanning from January 1996 to September 2020. The multivariate cointegration test showed evidence of a longrun relationship among the stock price, exchange rate, and oil price. The linear Granger causality test showed that stock price is granger caused by oil price and exchange rate, and oil price is granger cause by stock price and exchange rate. The nonlinear granger causality showed evidence of nonlinearity using the BDS test. The Dick-Panchenko non-parametric and nonlinear Granger causality test in a contrary to the linear Granger causality test showed a unidirectional nonlinear causality from exchange rate to stock price at 10% level, and from oil price to exchange rate at 1% and 10% levels respectively. The result from the nonlinear ARDL revealed that change in oil price impacted asymmetrically on the exchange rate and stock price both in the short-run and long-run. The study recommends that the revenue generated from increasing oil price should be used for developing and reinstalling decayed infrastructure and oil-exporting countries should develop mechanisms and strategies that will ensure fair stability in the capital markets irrespective of the shocks in oil price.
Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level vague... more Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level vagueness of its concept and causes. Therefore, this paper goes all out to examine the relationship that exists between currency substitution and some macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques over a period of 1970 -2012. The result of the bound test procedure and other tools employed confirm that there is a stable and long-run relationship between currency substitution and the macroeconomic variables under consideration. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ when also incorporated support these findings for the period. It is therefore suggest that effective and efficient policy control measure should be develop and implement to normalize exchange rate, inflation and interest rate.
This paper empirically examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation in Nigeria us... more This paper empirically examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1986 -2012. The methodology employed includes: ADF, PP and KPSS test of unit root, Johansen Julius cointegration test, VECM, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The unit root test result shows that all variables are stationary at first difference, while Maxi-eigen value shows a long run relationship between the variables. VECM result established positive and significant relationship between inflation, exchange rate volatility, money supply and fiscal deficit, while gross domestic product show negative relationship. Granger causality outcome shows a bi-directional relationship between all the variables. Subsequently, exchange rate volatility is deduced to influence inflation in Nigeria. Therefore, it becomes imperative for the government to understand and control the various channels through which exchange rate transmits to affect inflation in Nigeria, check the growth of money supply, increase the level of productivity in the country and lastly cut down public sector expenditure and possibly make a shift from excessive consumption expenditure to capital expenditure believing this will reduce the burden of fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation.
This paper discusses the role played by telecommunication infrastructure in economic and social g... more This paper discusses the role played by telecommunication infrastructure in economic and social growth process of developing countries. It focuses on the fact that these countries give more priority to investment in telecommunications, than in other kinds of basic infrastructure, to increase the economic gap. We use evidence of 37 developing countries over a 15-year period to examine the probability of a mutual impact between an economic growth and a development in the telecommunication sector. We use jointly a micro model for telecommunication investment with a macro production function to test the reverse causality. We find only one significant and positive causal link because of the missing of a minimum level of development, able to lead to a significant growth in the telecommunication sector.
The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real a... more The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real aggregate output (GDP) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. This study set to investigate the perplexity whether or not money supply as the major monetary policy measures actually impact on the Nigerian economy. This work made use of data of different frequencies (yearly and quarterly) in order to reveal some hidden facts that data of the same frequency might fail to show. An unrestricted version of Mixed Data Sampling (U-MIDAS) technique and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique were employed. The ADF unit root test revealed that the yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply contained a unit root and this permit the testing of cointegration among the variables. The U-MIDAS results affirm the existence of a long and shortrun relationship between yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply at different season while the ARDL result affirm that money supply impacted significan...
Exchange rate devaluation is said to have ripple effects on macroeconomic variables. Hence, this ... more Exchange rate devaluation is said to have ripple effects on macroeconomic variables. Hence, this study empirically examined how macroeconomic variables responded to currency devaluation in Nigeria: 1986-2016. In other to achieve our aim, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip Peron (PP) stationarity tests were employed to examine the stationarity properties of the variables stated in the model, while Johansen Co-integration test was employed to see if there is a long run relationship among the variables in the model. It was then revealed that, all the variables were integrated of the same order and were stationary at first difference I(1), while the result of the co-integration test revealed that, there is long run relationship among the variables. These therefore necessitates the use of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and Impulse Response in the analysis. The result revealed that, exchange rate devaluation have a positive and significant impact on macroeconomic var...
This paper seeks to investigate the effect of health on economic growth in Nigeria using secondar... more This paper seeks to investigate the effect of health on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data from the period 1980 to 2013. Time series properties of the data was tested with ADF and PP unit root test which was followed by a test of the long run relationship among the variables using Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, VECM and granger causality test. The result of the unit root test revealed that all the variables were stationary at first difference i.e I(1) while Schwarz Information Criterion (SC) confirmed the appropriateness of two lag length and the trace statistic and the max-Eigen statistic Johansen cointegration test both revealed the existence of five cointegrating equation. The VECM result showed that all the explanatory variables were in line with the a priori expectation and the model satisfied the stability condition while the granger causality result depicts a uni-directional relationship between health indicators and economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, ...
This study examined the determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria using a time series data f... more This study examined the determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria using a time series data for the period of 1990 to 2016. The study employed Error Correction Model (ECM) after conducting unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated result revealed positive and significant relationship between the financial inclusion and the proposed variables. Specifically, the higher a country’s GDP per capital, the more the financial inclusion in their financial system. Likewise the broad money given the continuous increase in the amount of money in circulation which will definitely improve financial inclusion in the country. Credit and internet users per 100 people also have positive and significant impact on financial inclusion. While the significant impacts of internet access have very vital implication for financial inclusion as the more the use of internet, the more the financial inclusion through extension of financial services to larger number of people living in the rural are...
This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as esti... more This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 -2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Granger causality test result showed that inflation does not granger cause economic growth and neither does economic growth granger cause inflation during the period of study. Using broad money supply to GDP as control variable, an inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and long run was established for Nigeria. As for the forecasting of inflation, the findings showed that VAR (1) could forecast inflation rate in Nigeria with high degree of accuracy. Hence, this result is vital for monetary policy formulation and need to be taken into consideration as a complement to the approach currently employed by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the targeting of a single digit inflation rate.
This study examined the impact of oil price shocks on stock market prices volatility in Nigeria u... more This study examined the impact of oil price shocks on stock market prices volatility in Nigeria using non-linear cointegration approach labelled as Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) which represents one of the major important contribution to the literature on the subject matter. The study was carried out using a quarterly data for the period of 1986 to 2016. The oil price shocks impact was disentangled or decomposed into oil supply shocks, oil demand shocks and oil specific demand shocks and the results from the empirical analysis revealed that, there is long run relationship among the variables and positive oil price shocks in its various forms which exert positive and significant impact on the volatility of stock prices in both long run and short run except for oil supply shock that have negative impact in the long run, while negative oil price shocks exert negative impact on the volatility of stock prices in both short and long run. However, the asymmetric result ...
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2014
The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness... more The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness on attracting foreign direct investment in Nigeria using quarterly data of 2006 to 2012. The log linear vector error correction model (VECM) was adopted to examine how automated teller machine (ATM), interbank transfer (IBT) and Mobile money (MM) had impacted on foreign direct investment (FDI). Unit root test was carried out on each of the variables to determine their level of stationarity. They were however found stationary after first difference and then used for the regression analysis. From the various regression results, we find out that the cointegration test confirmed the existence of long run relationship among the variables, while the granger causality shows a bi-directional relationship where IBT and MM was said to granger cause FDI in Nigeria. In the VECM model result, all the explanatory variables are positive and significant meaning that they all contribute positively to th...
This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic gr... more This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria using time series quarterly data for the period of 2002 to 2014. A functional relationship was modeled between macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate, teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers, number of landline subscribers, degree of openness in the economy, gross domestic investment and foreign direct investment. This study adopted an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) estimation techniques approach to cointegration test using bound test, stability test and others. The results from the analysis revealed the existence of long run relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria and concluded that, gross domestic investment, foreign direct investment and degree of openness in the country has improved the teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers as well as number of landline which facilitates or en...
This study empirically examined the impact of financial inclusion on the economic growth of forty... more This study empirically examined the impact of financial inclusion on the economic growth of forty-one SSA countries for the period of 2005 to 2017. We employed static and dynamic panel using Pooled OLS, Random Effect Model, and the Generalized Method of Moment Panel Model as estimation techniques. The result of GMM-Difference showed a positive and significant relationship between measures of financial inclusion (number of commercial bank branches, mobile cellular subscriptions & the deposits to GDP ratio) and economic growth, while the result of GMM-System showed a positive and significant relationship between financial inclusion, i.e., mobile cellular subscriptions and economic growth. The study, therefore, concludes on the important role financial access and penetration play in ensuring financial inclusion impacted significantly on economic growth while making judicious use of every opportunity regarding financial facilities cannot also be overemphasized. Hence, we, therefore, recommend that the government of each country should ensure targeting their policies towards increasing financial access, penetration, and usage in such a way that they will continue to champion economic growth in the respective countries.
Center for Journals of Economics and Allied Science - KSU, 2020
This study empirically analyzed the impact of oil price changes on inflation in Nigeria using mon... more This study empirically analyzed the impact of oil price changes on inflation in Nigeria using monthly time series data from January 1991 to April 2019. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model after the result of the unit root tests revealed a mixture of integrated order of the stationarity level of the variables. The ARDL results showed that in the long run, oil price exerts a positive influence on the rate of inflation in Nigeria over the time, which means that as oil price increases, the inflation rate does increase. Also, the exchange rate, as part of the control variables and the lag value of the dependent variable, exert positive influences on the target variable. In the short run, oil price also shows a positive relationship with the inflation rate, which is in accordance with the long-run result. This study concludes that; oil price changes remain one of the important influencing variables and therefore recommended that; inflation could be curbed by paying good attention to the swinging nature of oil price as well as exchange rate and taking proactive actions in manipulating monetary policy tools to cushion any negative effect as a result of their outcomes in the economy.
This study was an inquiry into the link between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic ... more This study was an inquiry into the link between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic variables' volatility in Nigeria. This was motivated due to irrefutable conclusion as inferred from previous work on the subject matter. The research work made use of monthly data for a period of January 1990 – December 2014 and employed GARCH(1,1) models, and the relationship between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic volatilities was examined using bi-variate and multivariate VAR Granger causality tests as well as through regression analysis. However, the stance of the study was not far from the view of previous studies as only three out of the five macroeconomic variables studied have a relationship with stock market prices volatility based on the result from GARCH (1,1) model, the volatility in GDP, inflation and money supply were not found to Granger-cause and not significantly related to stock market prices volatility but only volatility in interest rate and exchange rate does Granger-cause stock market prices volatility; while from the regression analysis, only interest rate volatility and exchange rate are significantly related to stock market prices volatility. This finding is admissible in the case of developing countries with the supremacy of non-institutional investors and the existence of information asymmetry problem among investors which could account for the weak relationship between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic variables' volatility.
The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real a... more The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real aggregate output (GDP) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. This study set to investigate the perplexity whether or not money supply as the major monetary policy measures actually impact on the Nigerian economy. This work made use of data of different frequencies (yearly and quarterly) in order to reveal some hidden facts that data of the same frequency might fail to show. An unrestricted version of Mixed Data Sampling (U-MIDAS) technique and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique were employed. The ADF unit root test revealed that the yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply contained a unit root and this permit the testing of cointegration among the variables. The U-MIDAS results affirm the existence of a long and short-run relationship between yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply at different season while the ARDL result affirm that money supply impacted significantly on real GDP in the long run only. The study concluded that the disequilibrium correction terms from the two analytical approaches showed the evidence that there is a tendency for growth targeting in Nigeria which is one of the major objectives of Nigeria economy though at a slower rate. It was therefore recommended that monetary authority should maintain the level of inflation targeting in the economy and the volume of money to be supply should be monitored as too much money supply in the economy will lead to skyrocketing inflation and also the periodic money multiplier should be made efficient by supplying the money into the circulation regularly so as to co-trend with the real GDP growth by making cash available for business transactions and other economic activities, this will by means improve the real GDP of Nigeria economy.
The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness... more The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness on attracting foreign direct investment in Nigeria using quarterly data of 2006 to 2012. The log linear vector error correction model (VECM) was adopted to examine how automated teller machine (ATM), interbank transfer (IBT) and Mobile money (MM) had impacted on foreign direct investment (FDI). Unit root test was carried out on each of the variables to determine their level of stationarity. They were however found stationary after first difference and then used for the regression analysis. From the various regression results, we find out that the cointegration test confirmed the existence of long run relationship among the variables, while the granger causality shows a bi-directional relationship where IBT and MM was said to granger cause FDI in Nigeria. In the VECM model result, all the explanatory variables are positive and significant meaning that they all contribute positively to the increase in FDI in the country. The study recommends that the use of ATM, IBT and MM should be much more encouraged in Nigeria, with proper awareness on its benefit. Also effective policy needs to be developed by the government through the CBN to ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of ATM, IBT and MM.
This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic gr... more This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria using time series quarterly data for the period of 2002 to 2014. A functional relationship was modeled between macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate, teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers, number of landline subscribers, degree of openness in the economy, gross domestic investment and foreign direct investment. This study adopted an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) estimation techniques approach to cointegration test using bound test, stability test and others. The results from the analysis revealed the existence of long run relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria and concluded that, gross domestic investment, foreign direct investment and degree of openness in the country has improved the teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers as well as number of landline which facilitates or enhanced economic activities and in turn leads to increased economic growth. We therefore recommends that government should implement policies that will enhance the development of the telecommunications sectors and complementary factors such as electrification particularly in rural areas, pay more attention to measures that would increase mobile telephone penetration such as reduce tariffs on telecommunication components, as well as formulate policies that will enhance domestic savings and attract more foreign direct investment.
Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level
vague... more Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level vagueness of its concept and causes. Therefore, this paper goes all out to examine the relationship that exists between currency substitution and some macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques over a period of 1970 – 2012. The result of the bound test procedure and other tools employed confirm that there is a stable and long-run relationship between currency substitution and the macroeconomic variables under consideration. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ when also incorporated support these findings for the period. It is therefore suggest that effective and efficient policy control measure should be develop and implement to normalize exchange rate, inflation and interest rate.
With the aid of the St. Louis equation and the general method of moments (GMM) approach, this stu... more With the aid of the St. Louis equation and the general method of moments (GMM) approach, this study investigates the relative effect of monetary and fiscal policy on economic development in Africa within the period 1995–2016. The study shows that money supply has significant positive relationship with GDP per capita while interest rate has significant negative effects. Government spending has significant negative relationship with GDP per capita while taxation has significant positive effects. Other macroeconomic variables such as primary enrollment and openness to trade have significant positive effects while inflation has negative effects. The environmental variable, carbon emissions, has significant negative effects. Among the institutional variables, corruption has significant negative effects. The results therefore support both Keynesian and monetarist positive policy assertions: Money supply, interest rate, government spending and taxation are viable instruments to stabilize o...
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2021
The study examines the asymmetric effect of oil price on the exchange rate and stock price using ... more The study examines the asymmetric effect of oil price on the exchange rate and stock price using the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) technique on the time-series data spanning from January 1996 to September 2020. The multivariate cointegration test showed evidence of a longrun relationship among the stock price, exchange rate, and oil price. The linear Granger causality test showed that stock price is granger caused by oil price and exchange rate, and oil price is granger cause by stock price and exchange rate. The nonlinear granger causality showed evidence of nonlinearity using the BDS test. The Dick-Panchenko non-parametric and nonlinear Granger causality test in a contrary to the linear Granger causality test showed a unidirectional nonlinear causality from exchange rate to stock price at 10% level, and from oil price to exchange rate at 1% and 10% levels respectively. The result from the nonlinear ARDL revealed that change in oil price impacted asymmetrically on the exchange rate and stock price both in the short-run and long-run. The study recommends that the revenue generated from increasing oil price should be used for developing and reinstalling decayed infrastructure and oil-exporting countries should develop mechanisms and strategies that will ensure fair stability in the capital markets irrespective of the shocks in oil price.
Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level vague... more Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level vagueness of its concept and causes. Therefore, this paper goes all out to examine the relationship that exists between currency substitution and some macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques over a period of 1970 -2012. The result of the bound test procedure and other tools employed confirm that there is a stable and long-run relationship between currency substitution and the macroeconomic variables under consideration. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ when also incorporated support these findings for the period. It is therefore suggest that effective and efficient policy control measure should be develop and implement to normalize exchange rate, inflation and interest rate.
This paper empirically examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation in Nigeria us... more This paper empirically examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1986 -2012. The methodology employed includes: ADF, PP and KPSS test of unit root, Johansen Julius cointegration test, VECM, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The unit root test result shows that all variables are stationary at first difference, while Maxi-eigen value shows a long run relationship between the variables. VECM result established positive and significant relationship between inflation, exchange rate volatility, money supply and fiscal deficit, while gross domestic product show negative relationship. Granger causality outcome shows a bi-directional relationship between all the variables. Subsequently, exchange rate volatility is deduced to influence inflation in Nigeria. Therefore, it becomes imperative for the government to understand and control the various channels through which exchange rate transmits to affect inflation in Nigeria, check the growth of money supply, increase the level of productivity in the country and lastly cut down public sector expenditure and possibly make a shift from excessive consumption expenditure to capital expenditure believing this will reduce the burden of fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation.
This paper discusses the role played by telecommunication infrastructure in economic and social g... more This paper discusses the role played by telecommunication infrastructure in economic and social growth process of developing countries. It focuses on the fact that these countries give more priority to investment in telecommunications, than in other kinds of basic infrastructure, to increase the economic gap. We use evidence of 37 developing countries over a 15-year period to examine the probability of a mutual impact between an economic growth and a development in the telecommunication sector. We use jointly a micro model for telecommunication investment with a macro production function to test the reverse causality. We find only one significant and positive causal link because of the missing of a minimum level of development, able to lead to a significant growth in the telecommunication sector.
The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real a... more The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real aggregate output (GDP) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. This study set to investigate the perplexity whether or not money supply as the major monetary policy measures actually impact on the Nigerian economy. This work made use of data of different frequencies (yearly and quarterly) in order to reveal some hidden facts that data of the same frequency might fail to show. An unrestricted version of Mixed Data Sampling (U-MIDAS) technique and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique were employed. The ADF unit root test revealed that the yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply contained a unit root and this permit the testing of cointegration among the variables. The U-MIDAS results affirm the existence of a long and shortrun relationship between yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply at different season while the ARDL result affirm that money supply impacted significan...
Exchange rate devaluation is said to have ripple effects on macroeconomic variables. Hence, this ... more Exchange rate devaluation is said to have ripple effects on macroeconomic variables. Hence, this study empirically examined how macroeconomic variables responded to currency devaluation in Nigeria: 1986-2016. In other to achieve our aim, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip Peron (PP) stationarity tests were employed to examine the stationarity properties of the variables stated in the model, while Johansen Co-integration test was employed to see if there is a long run relationship among the variables in the model. It was then revealed that, all the variables were integrated of the same order and were stationary at first difference I(1), while the result of the co-integration test revealed that, there is long run relationship among the variables. These therefore necessitates the use of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and Impulse Response in the analysis. The result revealed that, exchange rate devaluation have a positive and significant impact on macroeconomic var...
This paper seeks to investigate the effect of health on economic growth in Nigeria using secondar... more This paper seeks to investigate the effect of health on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data from the period 1980 to 2013. Time series properties of the data was tested with ADF and PP unit root test which was followed by a test of the long run relationship among the variables using Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, VECM and granger causality test. The result of the unit root test revealed that all the variables were stationary at first difference i.e I(1) while Schwarz Information Criterion (SC) confirmed the appropriateness of two lag length and the trace statistic and the max-Eigen statistic Johansen cointegration test both revealed the existence of five cointegrating equation. The VECM result showed that all the explanatory variables were in line with the a priori expectation and the model satisfied the stability condition while the granger causality result depicts a uni-directional relationship between health indicators and economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, ...
This study examined the determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria using a time series data f... more This study examined the determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria using a time series data for the period of 1990 to 2016. The study employed Error Correction Model (ECM) after conducting unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated result revealed positive and significant relationship between the financial inclusion and the proposed variables. Specifically, the higher a country’s GDP per capital, the more the financial inclusion in their financial system. Likewise the broad money given the continuous increase in the amount of money in circulation which will definitely improve financial inclusion in the country. Credit and internet users per 100 people also have positive and significant impact on financial inclusion. While the significant impacts of internet access have very vital implication for financial inclusion as the more the use of internet, the more the financial inclusion through extension of financial services to larger number of people living in the rural are...
This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as esti... more This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 -2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Granger causality test result showed that inflation does not granger cause economic growth and neither does economic growth granger cause inflation during the period of study. Using broad money supply to GDP as control variable, an inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and long run was established for Nigeria. As for the forecasting of inflation, the findings showed that VAR (1) could forecast inflation rate in Nigeria with high degree of accuracy. Hence, this result is vital for monetary policy formulation and need to be taken into consideration as a complement to the approach currently employed by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the targeting of a single digit inflation rate.
This study examined the impact of oil price shocks on stock market prices volatility in Nigeria u... more This study examined the impact of oil price shocks on stock market prices volatility in Nigeria using non-linear cointegration approach labelled as Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) which represents one of the major important contribution to the literature on the subject matter. The study was carried out using a quarterly data for the period of 1986 to 2016. The oil price shocks impact was disentangled or decomposed into oil supply shocks, oil demand shocks and oil specific demand shocks and the results from the empirical analysis revealed that, there is long run relationship among the variables and positive oil price shocks in its various forms which exert positive and significant impact on the volatility of stock prices in both long run and short run except for oil supply shock that have negative impact in the long run, while negative oil price shocks exert negative impact on the volatility of stock prices in both short and long run. However, the asymmetric result ...
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2014
The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness... more The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness on attracting foreign direct investment in Nigeria using quarterly data of 2006 to 2012. The log linear vector error correction model (VECM) was adopted to examine how automated teller machine (ATM), interbank transfer (IBT) and Mobile money (MM) had impacted on foreign direct investment (FDI). Unit root test was carried out on each of the variables to determine their level of stationarity. They were however found stationary after first difference and then used for the regression analysis. From the various regression results, we find out that the cointegration test confirmed the existence of long run relationship among the variables, while the granger causality shows a bi-directional relationship where IBT and MM was said to granger cause FDI in Nigeria. In the VECM model result, all the explanatory variables are positive and significant meaning that they all contribute positively to th...
This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic gr... more This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria using time series quarterly data for the period of 2002 to 2014. A functional relationship was modeled between macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate, teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers, number of landline subscribers, degree of openness in the economy, gross domestic investment and foreign direct investment. This study adopted an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) estimation techniques approach to cointegration test using bound test, stability test and others. The results from the analysis revealed the existence of long run relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria and concluded that, gross domestic investment, foreign direct investment and degree of openness in the country has improved the teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers as well as number of landline which facilitates or en...
This study empirically examined the impact of financial inclusion on the economic growth of forty... more This study empirically examined the impact of financial inclusion on the economic growth of forty-one SSA countries for the period of 2005 to 2017. We employed static and dynamic panel using Pooled OLS, Random Effect Model, and the Generalized Method of Moment Panel Model as estimation techniques. The result of GMM-Difference showed a positive and significant relationship between measures of financial inclusion (number of commercial bank branches, mobile cellular subscriptions & the deposits to GDP ratio) and economic growth, while the result of GMM-System showed a positive and significant relationship between financial inclusion, i.e., mobile cellular subscriptions and economic growth. The study, therefore, concludes on the important role financial access and penetration play in ensuring financial inclusion impacted significantly on economic growth while making judicious use of every opportunity regarding financial facilities cannot also be overemphasized. Hence, we, therefore, recommend that the government of each country should ensure targeting their policies towards increasing financial access, penetration, and usage in such a way that they will continue to champion economic growth in the respective countries.
Center for Journals of Economics and Allied Science - KSU, 2020
This study empirically analyzed the impact of oil price changes on inflation in Nigeria using mon... more This study empirically analyzed the impact of oil price changes on inflation in Nigeria using monthly time series data from January 1991 to April 2019. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model after the result of the unit root tests revealed a mixture of integrated order of the stationarity level of the variables. The ARDL results showed that in the long run, oil price exerts a positive influence on the rate of inflation in Nigeria over the time, which means that as oil price increases, the inflation rate does increase. Also, the exchange rate, as part of the control variables and the lag value of the dependent variable, exert positive influences on the target variable. In the short run, oil price also shows a positive relationship with the inflation rate, which is in accordance with the long-run result. This study concludes that; oil price changes remain one of the important influencing variables and therefore recommended that; inflation could be curbed by paying good attention to the swinging nature of oil price as well as exchange rate and taking proactive actions in manipulating monetary policy tools to cushion any negative effect as a result of their outcomes in the economy.
This study was an inquiry into the link between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic ... more This study was an inquiry into the link between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic variables' volatility in Nigeria. This was motivated due to irrefutable conclusion as inferred from previous work on the subject matter. The research work made use of monthly data for a period of January 1990 – December 2014 and employed GARCH(1,1) models, and the relationship between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic volatilities was examined using bi-variate and multivariate VAR Granger causality tests as well as through regression analysis. However, the stance of the study was not far from the view of previous studies as only three out of the five macroeconomic variables studied have a relationship with stock market prices volatility based on the result from GARCH (1,1) model, the volatility in GDP, inflation and money supply were not found to Granger-cause and not significantly related to stock market prices volatility but only volatility in interest rate and exchange rate does Granger-cause stock market prices volatility; while from the regression analysis, only interest rate volatility and exchange rate are significantly related to stock market prices volatility. This finding is admissible in the case of developing countries with the supremacy of non-institutional investors and the existence of information asymmetry problem among investors which could account for the weak relationship between stock market prices volatility and macroeconomic variables' volatility.
The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real a... more The study investigates the long and short run relationships between broad money supply and real aggregate output (GDP) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. This study set to investigate the perplexity whether or not money supply as the major monetary policy measures actually impact on the Nigerian economy. This work made use of data of different frequencies (yearly and quarterly) in order to reveal some hidden facts that data of the same frequency might fail to show. An unrestricted version of Mixed Data Sampling (U-MIDAS) technique and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique were employed. The ADF unit root test revealed that the yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply contained a unit root and this permit the testing of cointegration among the variables. The U-MIDAS results affirm the existence of a long and short-run relationship between yearly real GDP and quarterly broad money supply at different season while the ARDL result affirm that money supply impacted significantly on real GDP in the long run only. The study concluded that the disequilibrium correction terms from the two analytical approaches showed the evidence that there is a tendency for growth targeting in Nigeria which is one of the major objectives of Nigeria economy though at a slower rate. It was therefore recommended that monetary authority should maintain the level of inflation targeting in the economy and the volume of money to be supply should be monitored as too much money supply in the economy will lead to skyrocketing inflation and also the periodic money multiplier should be made efficient by supplying the money into the circulation regularly so as to co-trend with the real GDP growth by making cash available for business transactions and other economic activities, this will by means improve the real GDP of Nigeria economy.
The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness... more The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness on attracting foreign direct investment in Nigeria using quarterly data of 2006 to 2012. The log linear vector error correction model (VECM) was adopted to examine how automated teller machine (ATM), interbank transfer (IBT) and Mobile money (MM) had impacted on foreign direct investment (FDI). Unit root test was carried out on each of the variables to determine their level of stationarity. They were however found stationary after first difference and then used for the regression analysis. From the various regression results, we find out that the cointegration test confirmed the existence of long run relationship among the variables, while the granger causality shows a bi-directional relationship where IBT and MM was said to granger cause FDI in Nigeria. In the VECM model result, all the explanatory variables are positive and significant meaning that they all contribute positively to the increase in FDI in the country. The study recommends that the use of ATM, IBT and MM should be much more encouraged in Nigeria, with proper awareness on its benefit. Also effective policy needs to be developed by the government through the CBN to ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of ATM, IBT and MM.
This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic gr... more This study investigates the relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria using time series quarterly data for the period of 2002 to 2014. A functional relationship was modeled between macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate, teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers, number of landline subscribers, degree of openness in the economy, gross domestic investment and foreign direct investment. This study adopted an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) estimation techniques approach to cointegration test using bound test, stability test and others. The results from the analysis revealed the existence of long run relationship between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria and concluded that, gross domestic investment, foreign direct investment and degree of openness in the country has improved the teledensity, number of mobile telephone subscribers as well as number of landline which facilitates or enhanced economic activities and in turn leads to increased economic growth. We therefore recommends that government should implement policies that will enhance the development of the telecommunications sectors and complementary factors such as electrification particularly in rural areas, pay more attention to measures that would increase mobile telephone penetration such as reduce tariffs on telecommunication components, as well as formulate policies that will enhance domestic savings and attract more foreign direct investment.
Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level
vague... more Currency substitution is a widely spread phenomenon in developing countries with high level vagueness of its concept and causes. Therefore, this paper goes all out to examine the relationship that exists between currency substitution and some macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques over a period of 1970 – 2012. The result of the bound test procedure and other tools employed confirm that there is a stable and long-run relationship between currency substitution and the macroeconomic variables under consideration. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ when also incorporated support these findings for the period. It is therefore suggest that effective and efficient policy control measure should be develop and implement to normalize exchange rate, inflation and interest rate.
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Papers by Adeniji Sesan
vagueness of its concept and causes. Therefore, this paper goes all out to examine the
relationship that exists between currency substitution and some macroeconomic variables such as
exchange rate, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) techniques over a period of 1970 – 2012. The result of the bound test procedure and
other tools employed confirm that there is a stable and long-run relationship between currency
substitution and the macroeconomic variables under consideration. The CUSUM and
CUSUMSQ when also incorporated support these findings for the period. It is therefore suggest
that effective and efficient policy control measure should be develop and implement to normalize
exchange rate, inflation and interest rate.
vagueness of its concept and causes. Therefore, this paper goes all out to examine the
relationship that exists between currency substitution and some macroeconomic variables such as
exchange rate, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) techniques over a period of 1970 – 2012. The result of the bound test procedure and
other tools employed confirm that there is a stable and long-run relationship between currency
substitution and the macroeconomic variables under consideration. The CUSUM and
CUSUMSQ when also incorporated support these findings for the period. It is therefore suggest
that effective and efficient policy control measure should be develop and implement to normalize
exchange rate, inflation and interest rate.