Papers by Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana
Panorama económico, 2016
The model by Piero Sraffa (Sraffa (1960)) proposes and indeterminacy in the distribution of incom... more The model by Piero Sraffa (Sraffa (1960)) proposes and indeterminacy in the distribution of income, which has important implications since its arbitrary determination modifies relative prices among goods. This paper shows that when we include equations of production and the Ramsey´s 1928 model of demand for goods, the indeterminacy of the Sraffian system disappears provided there is full employment of labor. Relative prices of goods in terms of wages are determined as a variant of the labor theory of value, nonetheless.
This paper shows that when money is necessary to consume but not to invest a gradual reduction of... more This paper shows that when money is necessary to consume but not to invest a gradual reduction of inflation has a positive effect on output, growth or both. If there is an externality à la Romer, a gradual and permanent disinflation could be optimal from a social point of view. In that case, the consistent monetary policy would be to reduce the growth of the nominal quantity of money also gradually.
Journal of business & economic policy, 2020
This paper sets a partial equilibrium model of the determination of price inflation and that of w... more This paper sets a partial equilibrium model of the determination of price inflation and that of wages. When there is an incomplete nominal adjustment of these variables, a long run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment arises. An ARDL version of the proposed model is estimated for the case of México. The estimation strongly rejects complete nominal adjustment of price inflation and that of wages to foreign inflation and the rate of growth of the minimum wage. We found a long run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment and also a similar relation between the rate of growth of the real wage and unemployment. These tradeoffs survive even in the hypothetical case where the rate of growth of the nominal wage and foreign inflation are perfectly indexed to both of the endogenous types of inflation described. The Phillips curve in prices is almost horizontal, a modest increase in inflation reduces unemployment considerably. 1 Neo-Keynesians and new-Keynesians as Romer (2000) and Taylor (2000) believe that it is possible to generate lower unemployment increasing inflation in the short run. New-classical economists as Lucas (1972) do not believe that this can be possible at any moment. 2 Which is the rate of unemployment that does not accelerate inflation. 3 Graham and Snower (2002) report similar results to those of Akerlof et al (1996) (2000).
The Japanese Economic Review, Jun 1, 2007
When the marginal utility of money is positive even at very high levels of the asset (Yoshiyasu O... more When the marginal utility of money is positive even at very high levels of the asset (Yoshiyasu Ono's, 1994, assumption), the relationship between inflation and the public deficit at full employment may result in a unique perverse equilibrium where higher deficits reduce inflation. If there are two equilibria, the low inflation equilibrium is one where the perverse effect between inflation and the public deficit prevails; while in the high inflation equilibrium higher public deficits increase inflation. These results contrast sharply with traditional results found in the literature. JEL Classification Numbers: E31 E12 E60 * I would like to thank Alberto Huidobro, Francisco de la Isla, Graciela Teruel and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. 1 See also Ono (2001) for very similar arguments.
Investigación Económica, 2013
Independently of capital movements, the so called Thirlwalls’s Law (Thirlwall, 1979) is theoretic... more Independently of capital movements, the so called Thirlwalls’s Law (Thirlwall, 1979) is theoretically a robust result in the long run. When the rate of growth of exports is equal or greater than the rate of growth of foreign debt, there is a convergence of the domestic rate of growth of Gross Domestic Product (DGP) to the original and simplest Thirlwall’s rate of growth. When, furthermore, the rate of growth of foreign debt is equal or lower than the Thirlwall’s rate of growth, the economy is solvent and the rate of growth of GDP converges to the Thirlwall’s law.
Investigacion Economica Escuela Nacional De Economia Universidad Nacional Autonoma De Mexico, Sep 1, 2012
Economia Mexicana NUEVA …, 2001
This paper shows that when money is necessary to consume but not to invest a gradual reduction of... more This paper shows that when money is necessary to consume but not to invest a gradual reduction of inflation has a positive effect on output, growth or both. If there is an externality à la Romer, a gradual and permanent disinflation could be optimal from a social point of view. In that case, the consistent monetary policy would be to reduce the growth of the nominal quantity of money also gradually.
PANORAMA ECONÓMICO, 2017
El modelo de Piero Sraffa (1960) propone una indeterminación de origen en la distribución del ing... more El modelo de Piero Sraffa (1960) propone una indeterminación de origen en la distribución del ingreso, la cual tiene implicaciones importantes pues su arbitraria determinación modifica los precios relativos entre los bienes. Este trabajo muestra que al incluir las ecuaciones de producción, y el modelo económico de demanda de Ramsey (1928), la indeterminación del sistema de Sraffa (1960) desaparece siempre y cuando haya pleno empleo del factor trabajo. Sin embargo, sigue siendo cierto que los precios relativos de las mercancías en relación a los salarios se determinan en una variante de la teoría del valor trabajo.
This paper first sets an equation for the average intelligence of a country or a human group, whi... more This paper first sets an equation for the average intelligence of a country or a human group, which is determined by genetic factors and other variables where education is one of them. Another equation representing a production function of education depends upon intelligence and different elements that improve the quality of education. These two equations solve for the average level of intelligence and the level of education simultaneously. A third equation is a production function, where the GDP of the country is determined by human capital, physical capital and labor. Human capital is approached by the level of education obtained in the first two equations. The previous system is estimated in a cross section for 42 countries. Intelligence is approached by the IQ level by countries shown by Lynn and Vanhanen (2002); the genetic factors explaining intelligence are taken from the haplogroups maps of the Y DNA chromosome of McDonald (2005) (haplogroups being groups of distinct genes)....
Differently from orthodox stabilization programmes, exchange rate based stabilization programmes ... more Differently from orthodox stabilization programmes, exchange rate based stabilization programmes (ERBS) show a peculiar cycle. Output, growth and consumption rise from the onset and there is a huge current account deficit. Since several programmes have been accompanied by huge capital inflows, the economic cycle is known as the capital inflows problem. The economic literature has identified the capital inflows problem with a situation where there is not fiscal adjustment or people do not believe in the programme (see chapter two). However, chapter one of this thesis shows that the cycle has been observed in successful and consistent programmes (Argentina 1991- , Bolivia 1985- , Israel 1985- and Mexico 1987-1994). It has been also observed in absence of capital inflows (Mexico 1988). Furthermore, some of its negatives consequences (eg balance of payments crises) have occurred in programmes under fiscal adjustment. These observations deserve an explanation. Chapter two makes a review ...
PANORAMA ECONÓMICO, 2017
En el modelo neoclásico simple de crecimiento endógeno este artículo muestra que las políticas fi... more En el modelo neoclásico simple de crecimiento endógeno este artículo muestra que las políticas fiscales que podrían considerarse expansivas propician un nivel de acervo de capital de largo plazo más elevado cuando son anunciadas que cuando no lo son. Sin embargo, el efecto de estas políticas sobre la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo es el mismo independientemente de si son o no anunciadas. En particular, los cambios en las tasas de impuestos al consumo son neutrales cuando no son anunciados, pero tienen efectos de corto plazo sobre el crecimiento y permanentes sobre el acervo de capital cuando son anunciados.
Journal of Business Theory and Practice, 2020
This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in or... more This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation.
Investigación Económica, 2019
Durante más de veinticinco años México ha experimentado una apertura comercial de gran magnitud. ... more Durante más de veinticinco años México ha experimentado una apertura comercial de gran magnitud. En 1980 el índice de comercio exterior como porcentaje del producto interno bruto (PIB) era apenas superior a 15%. En 2006 rebasó el 50%. El volumen de exportaciones de bienes no petroleros y servicios no factoriales ha crecido a un promedio de 8.8% en los últimos 27 años, mientras que el PIB creció en promedio tan sólo 2.4% en el mismo período. El crecimiento del volumen de importaciones ha sido de alrededor de 5.5 por ciento. Si bien las exportacioneshan crecido de manera muy considerable, la balanza comercial no muestra una mejoría significativa a través del tiempo.
Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 2017
Este trabajo tiene como principal objetivo plantear una variante del modelo de crecimiento de Luc... more Este trabajo tiene como principal objetivo plantear una variante del modelo de crecimiento de Lucas (1988) que pueda fácilmente ser sujeta a ejercicios de calibración y simulación. Un segundo objetivo es calibrar y simular el modelo propuesto para el caso de México. Para lograr lo anterior, se parte del modelo original de Lucas (1988) y de la estructura de ahorro-inversión propuesta por Solow (1956, 1957). El ejercicio de calibración-simulación para México muestra que aumentar el crecimiento del producto per cápita en este país en sólo unas décimas requiere un esfuerzo de ahorro adicional difícil de generar en los próximos años, por lo cual es posible que el crecimiento del futuro cercano siga siendo bajo. La metodología propuesta puede generar un sesgo donde el crecimiento depende en exceso de la trayectoria de capital humano, eso sucede en modelos del tipo de Lucas (1988, 2009). Sin embargo, las formas reducidas del modelo planteado pueden calibrarse y simularse con relativa facilidad para la mayoría de los países que tienen información bases de datos públicas, como en la Penn World Table.
Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 2012
Resumen Este trabajo estima una ecuación de Euler de consumo per cápita para México con datos tri... more Resumen Este trabajo estima una ecuación de Euler de consumo per cápita para México con datos trimestrales de 1980 a 2010. La estimación supone una función de utilidad isoelástica y se lleva a cabo por el método generalizado de momentos (MGM). Los resultados son muy acordes con lo que la teoría pronostica, aunque los residuales de la ecuación original no son totalmente aleatorios, lo que pone en tela de juicio la existencia de expectativas racionales. Una estimación adicional añadiendo niveles de consumo pasados (ver por ejemplo Fuhrer y Rudebusch (2004)) limpia los residuales y sigue siendo acorde con la ecuación de Euler como resultado de largo plazo. Un análisis complementario muestra que en México es posible rechazar cointegración entre el consumo per cápita y el PIB per cápita, lo que es compatible con la existencia de una ecuación de Euler para el consumo.
This paper first sets an equation for the average intelligence of a country or a human group, whi... more This paper first sets an equation for the average intelligence of a country or a human group, which is determined by genetic factors and other variables where education is one of them. Another equation representing a production function of education depends upon intelligence and different elements that improve the quality of education. These two equations solve for the average level of intelligence and the level of education simultaneously. A third equation is a production function, where the GDP of the country is determined by human capital, physical capital and labor. Human capital is approached by the level of education obtained in the first two equations. The previous system is estimated in a cross section for 42 countries. Intelligence is approached by the IQ level by countries shown by Lynn and Vanhanen (2002); the genetic factors explaining intelligence are taken from the haplogroups maps of the Y DNA chromosome of McDonald (2005) (haplogroups being groups of distinct genes). Other factors explaining intelligence are nutrition?approached by the per capita ingestion of calories presented by FAO? and education. The elements that improve the quality of education are supposed to be the per primary pupil expenditure in education and the per capita expenditure on health of the Human Development Report. Real economic variables are taken from different sources, mainly from the Penn World Table. Results show that in the determination of the IQ genetics matter. However, other factors much less related to genetics are equally important. The per primary pupil expenditure on education may boost both the level of the IQ and the level of education, which also can explain the so called Flynn effect (a situation where the IQ is increasing in time. Flynn (1984)). At the same time, human capital is approximated better for education than for the IQ itself. The paper performs a simulation. Here, the levels of the majority of the non genetic factors of the model are equated among countries. Main results of the simulation are that the inequality of the IQ and education among countries falls sharply, while the inequality on the per capita GDP falls only slightly due to the already observed differences in the per capita physical capital. Results suggest that policies aimed at improving the quality of education in poor countries with low levels of IQ and education should be welcome.
EconoQuantum, 2012
Proyecto académico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto La curva... more Proyecto académico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto La curva de Phillips en México: ¿Existe una relación de largo plazo entre la inflación y la brecha del producto? aleJandRo RodRíguez aRana 1 n Resumen: Este trabajo estima una curva de Phillips para México, la cual surge de un esquema de fijación de precios donde se establecen relaciones clientelares entre compradores y vendedores (Rotemberg (1982)). La estimación anual entre 1969 y 2008 muestra que existe una relación de largo plazo donde la inflación depende positivamente del salario real, el tipo de cambio real y la brecha del producto. Sin embargo, se necesitarían fuertes aumentos permanentes de inflación para apenas lograr una pequeña mejora en las otras variables.
Investigacion Economica, Sep 1, 2009
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Papers by Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana