ABSTRACT The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extrem... more ABSTRACT The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of flood preparedness and crisis management for basins greater than 1.000 km2.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2016
controlling the predictability of the heavy precipitation episode over the Liguria region (Northw... more controlling the predictability of the heavy precipitation episode over the Liguria region (Northwestern Italy). The two convection-permitting ensembles, though different in their characteristic, exhibit a good amount of probabilistic skill in forecasting heavy precipitation at a relatively high spatial and temporal resolution. Therefore they can be regarded as promising tools for operational forecast.
Flash flooding is a significant societal problem, but related precipitation forecasts are often p... more Flash flooding is a significant societal problem, but related precipitation forecasts are often poor. To address, one can try to use output from convection-parametrising (global) ensembles, post-processed to forecast at point-scale, or convection-resolving limited area ensembles. The new methodology described here combines both. We apply "ecPointrainfall" post-processing to the ECMWF global ensemble. Alongside we use 2.2km COSMO LAM ensemble output (centred on Italy), and also post-process that, using a scaleselective neighbourhood approach to compensate for insufficient members and to preserve consistently forecast local details. The two resulting scale-compatible components then undergo lead-time-weighted blending, to create the final probabilistic 6h rainfall forecasts. Product creation for forecasters, in this way, constituted the "Italy Flash Flood use case" within the EU-funded MISTRAL project; real-time delivery of open access products is ongoing. One year of verification shows that, of the five components (2 x raw, 2 x post-processed and blended), ecPoint is the most skilful. The post-processed COSMO ensemble adds most value to summer convective events in the evening, when the global model has an underprediction bias.
In this paper, the impact of the two different perturbation strategies for boundaries on shortran... more In this paper, the impact of the two different perturbation strategies for boundaries on shortrange forecast skill is assessed. This work is part of the COSMO Priority Project CONSENS, which aims at deciding which strategy is better to follow for short-range ensemble forecasting at the mesoscale. The impact of combining the two ensembles in different ways, for the aim of short-range forecasting, is also analysed. Results show that there is a positive effect in adding multi-model-driven members to the COSMO-LEPS ensemble, thus providing a hybrid solution to the problem.
One of the main challenges for numerical weather prediction (NWP) is still recognised as quantita... more One of the main challenges for numerical weather prediction (NWP) is still recognised as quantitative precipitation forecasting. The use of the probabilistic approach via the ensemble forecasting has now become commonplace to tackle the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere and to support forecasters in the management of alert procedures for events with little deterministic predictability. In the framework of limited–area ensemble forecasting, the COSMO–LEPS system (Montani et al., 2003 ) was the first mesoscale ensemble application running on a daily basis in Europe since November 2002. A number of system upgrades had a positive impact on COSMO–LEPS forecast skill of precipitation in the short and early medium–range, documented by Montani et al. (2010). As computer power resources increase, it was investigated the extent to which an increase in horizontal resolution of COSMO–LEPS runs could have a benefit on the probabilistic prediction of those surface fields, like precipitation and...
Ab stract-En sem ble pre dic tion sys tems that pro vided the Sochi Olym pics with me te o ro log... more Ab stract-En sem ble pre dic tion sys tems that pro vided the Sochi Olym pics with me te o ro log i cal in forma tion in the proba bil is tic form within the FROST-2014 pro ject are briefly de scribed. The sys tems prepared by the COSMO con sor tium are ex am ined in more de tail. Some pre lim i nary ver i fi ca tion re sults are pre sented.
The limitedarea ensemble prediction system COSMOLEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF si... more The limitedarea ensemble prediction system COSMOLEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the nonhydrostatic limitedarea model Lokal Model (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three ...
Reflexos do estresse infantil no processo de ensino e aprendizagem: possibilidades de intervenção... more Reflexos do estresse infantil no processo de ensino e aprendizagem: possibilidades de intervenção pedagógica Reflections of children's stress in the teaching and learning process: possibilities of pedagogical intervention Reflexiones del estrés infantil en el proceso de enseñanza y aprendizaje: posibilidades de intervención pedagógica
An objective verification of the COSMO-LEPS system is terms of precipitation has been performed a... more An objective verification of the COSMO-LEPS system is terms of precipitation has been performed and it is here presented. In addition to this, a subjective evaluation of the performances of COSMO-LEPS has also been carried out by the forecasters of some Meteorological Centres involved in the COSMO Consortium and results are here provided.
ABSTRACT The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extrem... more ABSTRACT The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of flood preparedness and crisis management for basins greater than 1.000 km2.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2016
controlling the predictability of the heavy precipitation episode over the Liguria region (Northw... more controlling the predictability of the heavy precipitation episode over the Liguria region (Northwestern Italy). The two convection-permitting ensembles, though different in their characteristic, exhibit a good amount of probabilistic skill in forecasting heavy precipitation at a relatively high spatial and temporal resolution. Therefore they can be regarded as promising tools for operational forecast.
Flash flooding is a significant societal problem, but related precipitation forecasts are often p... more Flash flooding is a significant societal problem, but related precipitation forecasts are often poor. To address, one can try to use output from convection-parametrising (global) ensembles, post-processed to forecast at point-scale, or convection-resolving limited area ensembles. The new methodology described here combines both. We apply "ecPointrainfall" post-processing to the ECMWF global ensemble. Alongside we use 2.2km COSMO LAM ensemble output (centred on Italy), and also post-process that, using a scaleselective neighbourhood approach to compensate for insufficient members and to preserve consistently forecast local details. The two resulting scale-compatible components then undergo lead-time-weighted blending, to create the final probabilistic 6h rainfall forecasts. Product creation for forecasters, in this way, constituted the "Italy Flash Flood use case" within the EU-funded MISTRAL project; real-time delivery of open access products is ongoing. One year of verification shows that, of the five components (2 x raw, 2 x post-processed and blended), ecPoint is the most skilful. The post-processed COSMO ensemble adds most value to summer convective events in the evening, when the global model has an underprediction bias.
In this paper, the impact of the two different perturbation strategies for boundaries on shortran... more In this paper, the impact of the two different perturbation strategies for boundaries on shortrange forecast skill is assessed. This work is part of the COSMO Priority Project CONSENS, which aims at deciding which strategy is better to follow for short-range ensemble forecasting at the mesoscale. The impact of combining the two ensembles in different ways, for the aim of short-range forecasting, is also analysed. Results show that there is a positive effect in adding multi-model-driven members to the COSMO-LEPS ensemble, thus providing a hybrid solution to the problem.
One of the main challenges for numerical weather prediction (NWP) is still recognised as quantita... more One of the main challenges for numerical weather prediction (NWP) is still recognised as quantitative precipitation forecasting. The use of the probabilistic approach via the ensemble forecasting has now become commonplace to tackle the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere and to support forecasters in the management of alert procedures for events with little deterministic predictability. In the framework of limited–area ensemble forecasting, the COSMO–LEPS system (Montani et al., 2003 ) was the first mesoscale ensemble application running on a daily basis in Europe since November 2002. A number of system upgrades had a positive impact on COSMO–LEPS forecast skill of precipitation in the short and early medium–range, documented by Montani et al. (2010). As computer power resources increase, it was investigated the extent to which an increase in horizontal resolution of COSMO–LEPS runs could have a benefit on the probabilistic prediction of those surface fields, like precipitation and...
Ab stract-En sem ble pre dic tion sys tems that pro vided the Sochi Olym pics with me te o ro log... more Ab stract-En sem ble pre dic tion sys tems that pro vided the Sochi Olym pics with me te o ro log i cal in forma tion in the proba bil is tic form within the FROST-2014 pro ject are briefly de scribed. The sys tems prepared by the COSMO con sor tium are ex am ined in more de tail. Some pre lim i nary ver i fi ca tion re sults are pre sented.
The limitedarea ensemble prediction system COSMOLEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF si... more The limitedarea ensemble prediction system COSMOLEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the nonhydrostatic limitedarea model Lokal Model (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three ...
Reflexos do estresse infantil no processo de ensino e aprendizagem: possibilidades de intervenção... more Reflexos do estresse infantil no processo de ensino e aprendizagem: possibilidades de intervenção pedagógica Reflections of children's stress in the teaching and learning process: possibilities of pedagogical intervention Reflexiones del estrés infantil en el proceso de enseñanza y aprendizaje: posibilidades de intervención pedagógica
An objective verification of the COSMO-LEPS system is terms of precipitation has been performed a... more An objective verification of the COSMO-LEPS system is terms of precipitation has been performed and it is here presented. In addition to this, a subjective evaluation of the performances of COSMO-LEPS has also been carried out by the forecasters of some Meteorological Centres involved in the COSMO Consortium and results are here provided.
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Papers by Andrea Montani