Under climate changes the natural disasters occur more and more frequent. Thus, disaster risk man... more Under climate changes the natural disasters occur more and more frequent. Thus, disaster risk management become more relevant. An important step towards solving this problem is to assess physical, social and economic damage caused by natural disasters. Proper risk assessment allows administrations to make correct management decisions. Assessment of landslide risk is quite complicated due to the complex nature of this phenomenon and differs from risk assessments caused by other natural threats such as floods or earthquakes. The reason for it is that although the landslide hazard has an areal character, the spatial spread of landslide processes is extremely heterogeneous and is difficult to predict. This fact determines the difficulties, both in modeling the landslide hazard, and in assessing the vulnerability of risk elements. This article summarizes the results of assessing the risk of physical, social and economic damage caused by landslides in the northwestern part of Lao Cai Province (Vietnam). In the development of existing methods for assessing regional landslide risks, the authors of the article developed an approach based on the method of quantitative assessment. The last one includes the analysis of damage and losses (ADS), which makes it possible to get rid of the subjectivity of expert assessments. This approach is systemic and includes a probabilistic assessment of the landslide hazard in combination with an analysis of the vulnerability of man-made objects and the level of possible social losses. Finally, the implementation of the proposed methodology involves an assessment of the accuracy (in terms of likelihood estimation) of the obtained results.
The significant damage caused by landslides, the diversity, complexity and multifactor developmen... more The significant damage caused by landslides, the diversity, complexity and multifactor development of landslide processes make the task of their studying extremely urgent. A regional assessment of the development of landslide processes presupposes the establishment of the possibility of their occurrence and activation, as well as interaction with structures and damage within a significant area. The regional assessment is based on a special regionalization of the territory. The results of these studies are widely used in the development of spatial planning schemes, in the selection of sites and construction routes for various structures. The article describes damage from landslide processes developed in the North-Western Lao Cai region (Vietnam), as well as a set of measures to minimize the consequences from their activation. The problem of assessing landslide processes in the North-Western Lao Cai region has become particularly relevant in the last decade. It is connected with the beginning of its integrated development (according to the plan to expand the area of the city of Lao Cai from 22.967 hectares (in 2016) to 28.288 hectares (in 2030) to the north- west and south-west of the city). Although landslides in Vietnam are found in all mountain regions, the territory of North-Western Lao Cai is considered to be one of the most dangerous, because landslides caused significant social and economic losses here. In the process of field research and interpretation of space images (SPOT-5 with a resolution of 2.5 m) a total of 340 landslide locations were identified in the region. Most of them refer to slip landslides according to the mechanism of their development. Analysis of the obtained data showed that the largest landslide covers an area of about 65.5 thousand m 2 , the minimum size of landslide manifestations is 417 m 2 . Large landslides (> 10,000 m 2 ) account for 11% of the total number of identified landslides, medium (1,000–10,000 m 2 ) — 65.6%, and landslides with sizes less than 1,000 m 2 — 23.4%. Until recently, the landslide hazard assessments had local character. Their aim was to find out the specific causes and to assess the damages from landslides, such as destruction of specific sections of roads or houses. In 2006, national project, aimed to study the causes of the activation of landslides in mountainous areas of Vietnam, was started. The main issue of this project became large landslides, the activation of which led to disastrous consequences. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the regional landslide hazard becomes a crucial step in the process of development of the investigated region. The design of the entire complex of landslide preventive measures should be based on a detailed analysis of landslides causes and the conditions of their development. Landslide preventive measures should correspond to the following basic requirements: 1) efficiency; 2) technological design of the structure of protective structures and their operation; 3) durability; 4) reliability. To assess the effectiveness of landslide preventive measures, it is necessary to take into account both the technical and the economic side of their implementation. The assessment of the technical effectiveness of the stabilization of landslide formation process requires the analysis of probability of slope stability providing in case of implementation of the proposed measure. On the other hand, it is also necessary to take into account the economic effectiveness of the proposed measure, besides the technical effectiveness. Because the landslide deformations occur due to several causes in various conditions, the main measures for its localization should be complex. The materials obtained during the regional assessment of landslide processes allow to make reasonable management and administrative decisions for reducing the level of landslide hazard and implementing the measures of engineering protection of territories, population and individual objects.
Научно-обоснованный прогноз реакций литосферы на различные виды естественных и искусственных взаи... more Научно-обоснованный прогноз реакций литосферы на различные виды естественных и искусственных взаимодействий и составление на этой основе карты оползневой опасности дает возможность правильно спланировать мероприятия по управлению состоянием региональных, локальных и элементарных литотехнических систем (ЛТС), обосновать пространственно-временную структуру мониторинга ЛТС, создать инженерно-геологическую основу для разработки плана народно-хозяйственного освоения территорий [1].
Under climate changes the natural disasters occur more and more frequent. Thus, disaster risk man... more Under climate changes the natural disasters occur more and more frequent. Thus, disaster risk management become more relevant. An important step towards solving this problem is to assess physical, social and economic damage caused by natural disasters. Proper risk assessment allows administrations to make correct management decisions. Assessment of landslide risk is quite complicated due to the complex nature of this phenomenon and differs from risk assessments caused by other natural threats such as floods or earthquakes. The reason for it is that although the landslide hazard has an areal character, the spatial spread of landslide processes is extremely heterogeneous and is difficult to predict. This fact determines the difficulties, both in modeling the landslide hazard, and in assessing the vulnerability of risk elements. This article summarizes the results of assessing the risk of physical, social and economic damage caused by landslides in the northwestern part of Lao Cai Province (Vietnam). In the development of existing methods for assessing regional landslide risks, the authors of the article developed an approach based on the method of quantitative assessment. The last one includes the analysis of damage and losses (ADS), which makes it possible to get rid of the subjectivity of expert assessments. This approach is systemic and includes a probabilistic assessment of the landslide hazard in combination with an analysis of the vulnerability of man-made objects and the level of possible social losses. Finally, the implementation of the proposed methodology involves an assessment of the accuracy (in terms of likelihood estimation) of the obtained results.
The significant damage caused by landslides, the diversity, complexity and multifactor developmen... more The significant damage caused by landslides, the diversity, complexity and multifactor development of landslide processes make the task of their studying extremely urgent. A regional assessment of the development of landslide processes presupposes the establishment of the possibility of their occurrence and activation, as well as interaction with structures and damage within a significant area. The regional assessment is based on a special regionalization of the territory. The results of these studies are widely used in the development of spatial planning schemes, in the selection of sites and construction routes for various structures. The article describes damage from landslide processes developed in the North-Western Lao Cai region (Vietnam), as well as a set of measures to minimize the consequences from their activation. The problem of assessing landslide processes in the North-Western Lao Cai region has become particularly relevant in the last decade. It is connected with the beginning of its integrated development (according to the plan to expand the area of the city of Lao Cai from 22.967 hectares (in 2016) to 28.288 hectares (in 2030) to the north- west and south-west of the city). Although landslides in Vietnam are found in all mountain regions, the territory of North-Western Lao Cai is considered to be one of the most dangerous, because landslides caused significant social and economic losses here. In the process of field research and interpretation of space images (SPOT-5 with a resolution of 2.5 m) a total of 340 landslide locations were identified in the region. Most of them refer to slip landslides according to the mechanism of their development. Analysis of the obtained data showed that the largest landslide covers an area of about 65.5 thousand m 2 , the minimum size of landslide manifestations is 417 m 2 . Large landslides (> 10,000 m 2 ) account for 11% of the total number of identified landslides, medium (1,000–10,000 m 2 ) — 65.6%, and landslides with sizes less than 1,000 m 2 — 23.4%. Until recently, the landslide hazard assessments had local character. Their aim was to find out the specific causes and to assess the damages from landslides, such as destruction of specific sections of roads or houses. In 2006, national project, aimed to study the causes of the activation of landslides in mountainous areas of Vietnam, was started. The main issue of this project became large landslides, the activation of which led to disastrous consequences. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the regional landslide hazard becomes a crucial step in the process of development of the investigated region. The design of the entire complex of landslide preventive measures should be based on a detailed analysis of landslides causes and the conditions of their development. Landslide preventive measures should correspond to the following basic requirements: 1) efficiency; 2) technological design of the structure of protective structures and their operation; 3) durability; 4) reliability. To assess the effectiveness of landslide preventive measures, it is necessary to take into account both the technical and the economic side of their implementation. The assessment of the technical effectiveness of the stabilization of landslide formation process requires the analysis of probability of slope stability providing in case of implementation of the proposed measure. On the other hand, it is also necessary to take into account the economic effectiveness of the proposed measure, besides the technical effectiveness. Because the landslide deformations occur due to several causes in various conditions, the main measures for its localization should be complex. The materials obtained during the regional assessment of landslide processes allow to make reasonable management and administrative decisions for reducing the level of landslide hazard and implementing the measures of engineering protection of territories, population and individual objects.
Научно-обоснованный прогноз реакций литосферы на различные виды естественных и искусственных взаи... more Научно-обоснованный прогноз реакций литосферы на различные виды естественных и искусственных взаимодействий и составление на этой основе карты оползневой опасности дает возможность правильно спланировать мероприятия по управлению состоянием региональных, локальных и элементарных литотехнических систем (ЛТС), обосновать пространственно-временную структуру мониторинга ЛТС, создать инженерно-геологическую основу для разработки плана народно-хозяйственного освоения территорий [1].
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Papers by Ч.К. Нгуен
important step towards solving this problem is to assess physical, social and economic damage caused by natural disasters. Proper risk
assessment allows administrations to make correct management decisions. Assessment of landslide risk is quite complicated due to the
complex nature of this phenomenon and differs from risk assessments caused by other natural threats such as floods or earthquakes. The
reason for it is that although the landslide hazard has an areal character, the spatial spread of landslide processes is extremely heterogeneous
and is difficult to predict. This fact determines the difficulties, both in modeling the landslide hazard, and in assessing the vulnerability of risk
elements. This article summarizes the results of assessing the risk of physical, social and economic damage caused by landslides in the
northwestern part of Lao Cai Province (Vietnam). In the development of existing methods for assessing regional landslide risks, the authors
of the article developed an approach based on the method of quantitative assessment. The last one includes the analysis of damage and
losses (ADS), which makes it possible to get rid of the subjectivity of expert assessments. This approach is systemic and includes a
probabilistic assessment of the landslide hazard in combination with an analysis of the vulnerability of man-made objects and the level of
possible social losses. Finally, the implementation of the proposed methodology involves an assessment of the accuracy (in terms of
likelihood estimation) of the obtained results.
important step towards solving this problem is to assess physical, social and economic damage caused by natural disasters. Proper risk
assessment allows administrations to make correct management decisions. Assessment of landslide risk is quite complicated due to the
complex nature of this phenomenon and differs from risk assessments caused by other natural threats such as floods or earthquakes. The
reason for it is that although the landslide hazard has an areal character, the spatial spread of landslide processes is extremely heterogeneous
and is difficult to predict. This fact determines the difficulties, both in modeling the landslide hazard, and in assessing the vulnerability of risk
elements. This article summarizes the results of assessing the risk of physical, social and economic damage caused by landslides in the
northwestern part of Lao Cai Province (Vietnam). In the development of existing methods for assessing regional landslide risks, the authors
of the article developed an approach based on the method of quantitative assessment. The last one includes the analysis of damage and
losses (ADS), which makes it possible to get rid of the subjectivity of expert assessments. This approach is systemic and includes a
probabilistic assessment of the landslide hazard in combination with an analysis of the vulnerability of man-made objects and the level of
possible social losses. Finally, the implementation of the proposed methodology involves an assessment of the accuracy (in terms of
likelihood estimation) of the obtained results.