Çaglar Özden

Followers

Following

Co-author

Public Views

Naci KARKIN

Pamukkale University

Shabib H . Syed

University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

Amir Imbaruddin

National Institute of Public Administration (Indonesia)

Antonin Nüsslein

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique / French National Centre for Scientific Research

Dalson Figueiredo

Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

Denis Retaillé

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique / French National Centre for Scientific Research

Dr. Amrita Jash

Manipal Academy of Higher Education

Journal ijmr.net.in(UGC Approved)

Kurukshetra University

Zdenek Drabek

Charles University, Prague

Jana Javornik

University of East London

Interests

Uploads

Papers by Çaglar Özden

Brain Waste? Educated Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market

World Bank policy research working paper, May 1, 2005

Download

Segregation and internal mobility of Syrian refugees in Turkey: Evidence from mobile phone data

Journal of Development Economics, 2021

We use mobile phone usage data to measure the extent of segregation of Syrian refugees in Turkey,... more We use mobile phone usage data to measure the extent of segregation of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and analyze its role in their internal mobility patterns. We construct a range of dissimilarity and normalized isolation indices using the hourly phone call volume of refugees and natives. The richness of the data allows us to compute the indices across different provinces and over time. Segregation levels show high variation across the country, with significantly lower levels of segregation in provinces with a higher share of refugees. Refugee mobility across provinces over time appears to be negatively correlated with segregation at destination, while native mobility is not. Based on data from Istanbul, segregation does not influence intra-province mobility. This is possibly due to the differences in segregation indices across the hours of the day, suggesting that residential segregation is higher than labor market segregation.

Download

Replication data for: The Perversity of Preferences: GSP and Developing Country Trade Policies,1976-2000

Developed countries maintain special tariff preferences, namely the Generalized System of Prefere... more Developed countries maintain special tariff preferences, namely the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), for imports from developing countries. Critics highlight the underachieving nature of such preferences, but we know little about how they affect recipients' own trade policies. We conduct the first examination of this question, using a panel of 154 developing countries. We find that countries removed from GSP adopt more liberal trade policies than those remaining eligible. The results, robust to endogeneity and alternative measures, suggest that developing countries may be best served by full integration into the reciprocity-based world trade regime rather than continued GSP-style preferences.

Global Migration of Talent and Tax Incentives: Evidence from Malaysia's Returning Expert Program

Policy Research Working Papers, 2016

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Download

Malaysia economic monitor : high-performing education

and numerous other Government ministries and agencies. We also thank representatives from the Fed... more and numerous other Government ministries and agencies. We also thank representatives from the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers, RAM Holdings Berhad, the American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce, Teach for Malaysia, academics from the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (Malaysia), and Singapore Management University, and analysts at several financial and rating institutions for helpful discussions. We are indebted to the International Cooperation Section of Economic Planning Unit for their ongoing collaboration with the World Bank and in particular their extensive support in the launch of this report.

Download

Local Labor Supply Responses to Immigration

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2014

Using detailed labor force data for Malaysia for 1990-2010, this paper analyses responses of nati... more Using detailed labor force data for Malaysia for 1990-2010, this paper analyses responses of natives to immigration on multiple extensive margins, and provides rare evidence for a developing destination country. Our IV identi…cation strategy is based on changes in the population and age structure of migrant source countries and the di¤erential propensity of these groups to migrate to particular states within Malaysia for identi…cation. The IV estimates show that immigration to a state results in an inward ‡ow of natives. Both the number of natives employed and out-of-laborforce in a state increase due to immigration. The evidence is consistent with immigration causing relocation of both employed individuals and their entire households. The increase in the out-of-laborforce native population as a result of immigration is due to migration of married housewives and school age children. We are grateful to Amir Omar and his team at the Institute of Labor Market Information Analysis (ILMIA) for their support, and the Department of Statistics of Malaysia for making the data available. We thank participants at the 6th International Conference on Migration and Development and the 4th TEMPO Conference on International Migration for comments and suggestions. The …ndings, conclusions and views expressed are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its executive directors and the countries they represent. Contact information:

Download

Immigrant versus Natives? Displacement and Job Creation

Policy Research Working Papers, 2014

Download

Loss Aversion and Trade Policy

Policy Research Working Papers, 2004

We provide new survey evidence showing that loss aversion and reference dependence are important ... more We provide new survey evidence showing that loss aversion and reference dependence are important in shaping people's perception of trade policy. Under the assumption that agents' welfare functions exhibit these behavioral elements, we analyze a model with a welfare-maximizing government and with the lobbying framework of Grossman and Helpman (1994). The policy implications of the augmented models differ in three important ways. One, there is a region of compensating protection, where a decline in the world price leads to an offsetting increase in protection, such that a constant domestic price is maintained. Two, protection following a single negative price shock will be persistent. Three, irrespective of the extent of lobbying, there will be a deviation from free trade that tends to favor loss-making industries. The augmented models are more consistent with the observed structure of protection, and in particular, explain why many trade policy instruments are explicitly designed to maintain prices at a given level.

Download

The Perversity of Preferences: The Generalized System of Preferences and Developing Country Trade Policies, 1976–2000

Policy Research Working Papers, 2003

The pattern of US antidumping: the path from initial filing to WTO dispute settlement

World Trade Review, 2003

This paper examines recent trends in the US antidumping process. We trace the experience of diffe... more This paper examines recent trends in the US antidumping process. We trace the experience of different groups of countries at each stage of the investigation process and through follow-up activity in disputes initiated at the GATT/WTO. The data reveal that lower income developing countries are more likely to be targeted, less likely to settle cases, more likely to confront high dumping duties, and less likely to bring cases to the WTO. We argue that differences in administrative and institutional ‘capacity’ may be a contributing factor that explains the observed bias facing developing countries, in addition to the other hypotheses that have been offered in the literature, such as higher protection and limited retaliatory ability.

Download

Trade Policy and Loss Aversion

American Economic Review, 2008

We develop a political economy model where loss aversion and reference dependence are important i... more We develop a political economy model where loss aversion and reference dependence are important in shaping people's preferences over trade policy. The policy implications of the augmented model differ in three ways: there is a region of compensating protection, where a decline in the world price leads to an offsetting increase in protection, such that a constant domestic price is maintained; protection following a single negative price shock will be persistent; and irrespective of the extent of lobbying, there will be a deviation from free trade that favors loss-making industries. The augmented model explains protections of the US steel industry since 1980. (JEL F13, F14, L61)

Download

The perversity of preferences: GSP and developing country trade policies, 1976–2000

Journal of Development Economics, 2005

Download

Obstacles Facing Developing Countries in Antidumping Cases: The Path From Initial Filing to WTO Dispute Settlement

Internal Borders and Migration in India

Policy Research Working Papers, 2017

Download

Malaysia - Economic monitor : immigrant labor

Growth moderated throughout 2015, affected by a slowdown in private consumption and weak export g... more Growth moderated throughout 2015, affected by a slowdown in private consumption and weak export growth. The authorities have generally managed the downturn in commodity prices and the financial market volatility with a reasonable mix of macro policies. Heightened external volatility calls for prudent macro policies and acceleration of structural reforms. The eleventh Malaysia plan stresses the importance of effective migration management to achieve high-income country status by 2020. Immigration continues to play a crucial role in Malaysia’s development. While job growth has recently been concentrated in high-skilled occupations, three quarters of all jobs in Malaysia are still low- and mid-skilled. Econometric modelling suggests that immigrant workers can raise gross domestic product (GDP) and create employment for Malaysians. The current process for sourcing immigrant workers is complex and costly for the migrant. The immigration system can better meet the country’s development ob...

Institutional Voids, Capital Markets and Temporary Migration: Evidence from Bangladesh

Policy Research Working Papers, 2022

Download

Who on Earth Can Work from Home?

The World Bank Research Observer, 2021

This paper reviews the emerging literature on which jobs can be performed from home and presents ... more This paper reviews the emerging literature on which jobs can be performed from home and presents new estimates of the prevalence of such jobs based on the task content of occupations, their technology requirements and the availability of internet access by country and income groupings. Globally, one of every five jobs can be performed from home. In low-income countries, this ratio drops to one of every 26 jobs. Failing to account for internet access yields upward biased estimates of the resilience of poor countries, lagging regions, and poor workers. Since better paid workers are more likely to be able to work from home, COVID-19 is likely to exacerbate inequality, especially in richer countries where better paid and educated workers are insulated from the shock. The overall labor market burden of COVID-19 is bound to be larger in poor countries, where only a small share of workers can work from home and social protection systems are weaker. Across the globe, young, poorly educated ...

Download

Which Jobs Are Most Vulnerable to COVID-19? What an Analysis of the European Union Reveals

This Research & Policy Brief presents measures of labor market exposure to COVID-19 in the Europe... more This Research & Policy Brief presents measures of labor market exposure to COVID-19 in the European Union (EU) by identifying jobs in non-essential industries that cannot be performed from home. Jobs most at risk account for 30 percent of all EU employment. These jobs are concentrated in lagging regions; tend to be low paid and less secure; and are disproportionately held by young, poorly educated workers and migrants. In the absence of urgent large-scale remedial action, the COVID-19 crisis is likely to exacerbate preexisting socioeconomic and regional disparities.

Download

Geopolitical Interests and Preferential Access to U.S. Markets

Economics and Politics, Jul 1, 2007

The United States imports around 25% of its merchandise under some form of preferential trade reg... more The United States imports around 25% of its merchandise under some form of preferential trade regime. This paper examines both the origins and the consequences of U.S. trade preferences in the context of the gravity model of international trade. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it provides estimates of the impact of preferential trade regimes in terms of access to U.S. markets while controlling for geostrategic interests that determine the countries that are offered commercial preferences. Second, we consider not only country eligibility but also the extent of utilization of these programs. Third, we provide new estimates of the impact of transport and transactions costs beyond distance. In the standard gravity estimation, we find that beneficiaries of these preferences, except GSP, export between 2-3 times more than the excluded countries, after controlling for country and product characteristics. Nonetheless, the estimated effects of these programs are lower when controlling for utilization ratios and selection biases due to the correlation between geopolitical interests and the standard explanatory variables used in the gravity model of trade, such as countries' geographic distance from the U.S.

Download