The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) ha... more The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) has created widespread fear of job loss and further rises in inequality. This paper discusses the rationale for these fears, highlighting the specific nature of AI and comparing previous waves of automation and robotization with the current advancements made possible by a widespread adoption of AI. It argues that large opportunities in terms of increases in productivity can ensue, including for developing countries, given the vastly reduced costs of capital that some applications have demonstrated and the potential for productivity increases, especially among the low skilled. At the same time, risks in the form of further increases in inequality need to be addressed if the benefits from AI-based technological progress are to be broadly shared. For this, skills policies are necessary but not sufficient. In addition, new forms of regulating the digital economy are called for that prevent fur...
The impact of robots on employment and trade is a highly discussed topic in the academic and publ... more The impact of robots on employment and trade is a highly discussed topic in the academic and public debates. Particularly, there are concerns that automation may threat jobs in emerging countries given the erosion of the labour cost advantage. We provide evidence on the effects of robots on worldwide employment, including emerging economies. To instrument the use of robots, we introduce an indexof technical progress, defined as the ability of robots to carry out different tasks. Robots turn out to have a statistically significant negative impact on worldwide employment. While it is small in developed countries, for emerging economies it amounts to -14% between 2005 and 2014. Furthermore, we assess cross-country effects, finding that robots in developed countries decrease off-shoring just as employment in emerging economies.
The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices... more The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model consists of a wage and a price Phillips curves, a dynamic IS curve as well as a dynamic employment adjustment equation and a Taylor-rule-type
The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are li... more The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are likely to affect capital accumulation. A simple graphical analysis is put forward to analyse the additional regimes arising out of this imbalance and different adjustment mechanisms are discussed. These different regimes are compared with existing business cycle theories, showing that this framework does allow to analyse approaches as different as Keynesian, Classical and Austrian business cycle theories. Finally, these regimes are used to put forward an alternative explanation for the dynamics of European unemployment and the possible persistent effects of misperceptions by policy makers.
The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are li... more The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are likely to affect capital accumulation. A simple graphical analysis is put forward to analyse the additional regimes arising out of this imbalance and different adjustment mechanisms are discussed. These different regimes are compared with existing business cycle theories, showing that this framework does allow to analyse approaches as different as Keynesian, Classical and Austrian business cycle theories. Finally, these regimes are used to put forward an alternative explanation for the dynamics of European unemployment and the possible persistent effects of misperceptions by policy makers.
Individually costly but group beneficial traits may nevertheless be selected when the group is so... more Individually costly but group beneficial traits may nevertheless be selected when the group is socially segmented or when group competition constitutes a second selection force. However, this is not a general result as it depends on the form of group competition. In this paper, we will show that depending on the type of competition -one shot versus repeated competition -even individually beneficial traits may not survive in a multi-group population when there is substantial uncertainty as to the outcome of group encounters. Moreover, competition may more directly affect the benefits the adoption of a certain trait brings about as it affects the risk distribution of the payoffs. These theoretical considerations are discussed using the example of the emergence of financial markets. It shows the importance of a stationary stochastic environment for economic development and the possibility for increasing returns to market development. Furthermore, we discuss these considerations using historical examples.
Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation... more Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation des marchés du travail et des produits sur l'innovation dans les pays de l'OCDE. Même si une telle réglementation a en général pour but des objectives autres que l'innovation, elle peut avoir des conséquences importantes pour la rentabilité des stratégies innovatrices des entreprises. Nos régressions avancent de l'évidence transversale qu'une augmentation de la concurrence sur le marché des produits -tout en garantissant les droits de propriété intellectuellesemble avoir un impact positif sur la performance innovatrice d'un pays. En revanche, la relation entre l'innovation et la flexibilité du marché du travail ne semble pas être sans ambiguïté. Le signe et l'importance de cette dernière dépend de manière cruciale du système des relations du travail et des caractéristiques de chaque industrie. En effet, plus les marchés internes du travail sont importants, moins la réglementation du marché du travail impose des coûts d'ajustement. Par ailleurs, dans les industries avec une base de connaissance cumulative, la protection de l'emploi et la coordination du système des relations du travail permettent aux entreprises d'exploiter pleinement le potentiel du marché interne du travail en alignant les objectifs des employés et des employeurs et en encourageant la formation financée par les entreprises ainsi que l'accumulation des compétences spécifiques à la firme.
A double-sided matching process is considered where firms have to search for both financial inves... more A double-sided matching process is considered where firms have to search for both financial investors and workers. The value of the match is endogenous as all three actors can proceed on investments specific to the match. Financial investors will screen possible debtors to the quality of their investment project, firms will select their technology and workers will decide upon their effort level. In equilibrium, when wages and debt levels are negotiated, this may lead to multiple equilibria whose characteristics are influenced by various policy variables. Moreover, for highly sclerotic markets, these equilibria may disappear altogether.
Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation... more Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation des marchés du travail et des produits sur l'innovation dans les pays de l'OCDE. Même si une telle réglementation a en général pour but des objectives autres que l'innovation, elle peut avoir des conséquences importantes pour la rentabilité des stratégies innovatrices des entreprises. Nos régressions avancent de l'évidence transversale qu'une augmentation de la concurrence sur le marché des produits -tout en garantissant les droits de propriété intellectuellesemble avoir un impact positif sur la performance innovatrice d'un pays. En revanche, la relation entre l'innovation et la flexibilité du marché du travail ne semble pas être sans ambiguïté. Le signe et l'importance de cette dernière dépend de manière cruciale du système des relations du travail et des caractéristiques de chaque industrie. En effet, plus les marchés internes du travail sont importants, moins la réglementation du marché du travail impose des coûts d'ajustement. Par ailleurs, dans les industries avec une base de connaissance cumulative, la protection de l'emploi et la coordination du système des relations du travail permettent aux entreprises d'exploiter pleinement le potentiel du marché interne du travail en alignant les objectifs des employés et des employeurs et en encourageant la formation financée par les entreprises ainsi que l'accumulation des compétences spécifiques à la firme.
This paper analyses several of the cross-market effects of policies aimed at influencing outcomes... more This paper analyses several of the cross-market effects of policies aimed at influencing outcomes in product and labour markets. Focusing on subsets of OECD countries, we look at the implications of product market competition for industry wages and overall employment, and the ...
Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLI... more Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(2001)38 For Official Use English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2001)38 2
Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLI... more Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP316(2002) Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP316(2002) Classification JEL : O31, O33, J50.
This article reviews the current state of research on unemployment dynamics in macroeconomic mode... more This article reviews the current state of research on unemployment dynamics in macroeconomic models. In particular, it discusses the increasingly widespread use of the labour-market flow approach as 5 implemented via a search and matching process and presents main policy considerations that arise from this approach related to unemployment benefit systems and employment protection. It reviews the implications of the labour-flow approach for dynamic properties of macroeconomic models and discusses policy implications for macroeconomic and labour-market policies. Finally, it presents new evidence on the effectiveness of policies to influence unemployment in-and outflows. 10
The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) ha... more The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) has created widespread fear of job loss and further rises in inequality. This paper discusses the rationale for these fears, highlighting the specific nature of AI and comparing previous waves of automation and robotization with the current advancements made possible by a widespread adoption of AI. It argues that large opportunities in terms of increases in productivity can ensue, including for developing countries, given the vastly reduced costs of capital that some applications have demonstrated and the potential for productivity increases, especially among the low skilled. At the same time, risks in the form of further increases in inequality need to be addressed if the benefits from AI-based technological progress are to be broadly shared. For this, skills policies are necessary but not sufficient. In addition, new forms of regulating the digital economy are called for that prevent fur...
The impact of robots on employment and trade is a highly discussed topic in the academic and publ... more The impact of robots on employment and trade is a highly discussed topic in the academic and public debates. Particularly, there are concerns that automation may threat jobs in emerging countries given the erosion of the labour cost advantage. We provide evidence on the effects of robots on worldwide employment, including emerging economies. To instrument the use of robots, we introduce an indexof technical progress, defined as the ability of robots to carry out different tasks. Robots turn out to have a statistically significant negative impact on worldwide employment. While it is small in developed countries, for emerging economies it amounts to -14% between 2005 and 2014. Furthermore, we assess cross-country effects, finding that robots in developed countries decrease off-shoring just as employment in emerging economies.
The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices... more The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model consists of a wage and a price Phillips curves, a dynamic IS curve as well as a dynamic employment adjustment equation and a Taylor-rule-type
The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are li... more The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are likely to affect capital accumulation. A simple graphical analysis is put forward to analyse the additional regimes arising out of this imbalance and different adjustment mechanisms are discussed. These different regimes are compared with existing business cycle theories, showing that this framework does allow to analyse approaches as different as Keynesian, Classical and Austrian business cycle theories. Finally, these regimes are used to put forward an alternative explanation for the dynamics of European unemployment and the possible persistent effects of misperceptions by policy makers.
The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are li... more The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are likely to affect capital accumulation. A simple graphical analysis is put forward to analyse the additional regimes arising out of this imbalance and different adjustment mechanisms are discussed. These different regimes are compared with existing business cycle theories, showing that this framework does allow to analyse approaches as different as Keynesian, Classical and Austrian business cycle theories. Finally, these regimes are used to put forward an alternative explanation for the dynamics of European unemployment and the possible persistent effects of misperceptions by policy makers.
Individually costly but group beneficial traits may nevertheless be selected when the group is so... more Individually costly but group beneficial traits may nevertheless be selected when the group is socially segmented or when group competition constitutes a second selection force. However, this is not a general result as it depends on the form of group competition. In this paper, we will show that depending on the type of competition -one shot versus repeated competition -even individually beneficial traits may not survive in a multi-group population when there is substantial uncertainty as to the outcome of group encounters. Moreover, competition may more directly affect the benefits the adoption of a certain trait brings about as it affects the risk distribution of the payoffs. These theoretical considerations are discussed using the example of the emergence of financial markets. It shows the importance of a stationary stochastic environment for economic development and the possibility for increasing returns to market development. Furthermore, we discuss these considerations using historical examples.
Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation... more Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation des marchés du travail et des produits sur l'innovation dans les pays de l'OCDE. Même si une telle réglementation a en général pour but des objectives autres que l'innovation, elle peut avoir des conséquences importantes pour la rentabilité des stratégies innovatrices des entreprises. Nos régressions avancent de l'évidence transversale qu'une augmentation de la concurrence sur le marché des produits -tout en garantissant les droits de propriété intellectuellesemble avoir un impact positif sur la performance innovatrice d'un pays. En revanche, la relation entre l'innovation et la flexibilité du marché du travail ne semble pas être sans ambiguïté. Le signe et l'importance de cette dernière dépend de manière cruciale du système des relations du travail et des caractéristiques de chaque industrie. En effet, plus les marchés internes du travail sont importants, moins la réglementation du marché du travail impose des coûts d'ajustement. Par ailleurs, dans les industries avec une base de connaissance cumulative, la protection de l'emploi et la coordination du système des relations du travail permettent aux entreprises d'exploiter pleinement le potentiel du marché interne du travail en alignant les objectifs des employés et des employeurs et en encourageant la formation financée par les entreprises ainsi que l'accumulation des compétences spécifiques à la firme.
A double-sided matching process is considered where firms have to search for both financial inves... more A double-sided matching process is considered where firms have to search for both financial investors and workers. The value of the match is endogenous as all three actors can proceed on investments specific to the match. Financial investors will screen possible debtors to the quality of their investment project, firms will select their technology and workers will decide upon their effort level. In equilibrium, when wages and debt levels are negotiated, this may lead to multiple equilibria whose characteristics are influenced by various policy variables. Moreover, for highly sclerotic markets, these equilibria may disappear altogether.
Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation... more Dans ce papier nous présentons de l'évidence comparative concernant l'impact de la réglementation des marchés du travail et des produits sur l'innovation dans les pays de l'OCDE. Même si une telle réglementation a en général pour but des objectives autres que l'innovation, elle peut avoir des conséquences importantes pour la rentabilité des stratégies innovatrices des entreprises. Nos régressions avancent de l'évidence transversale qu'une augmentation de la concurrence sur le marché des produits -tout en garantissant les droits de propriété intellectuellesemble avoir un impact positif sur la performance innovatrice d'un pays. En revanche, la relation entre l'innovation et la flexibilité du marché du travail ne semble pas être sans ambiguïté. Le signe et l'importance de cette dernière dépend de manière cruciale du système des relations du travail et des caractéristiques de chaque industrie. En effet, plus les marchés internes du travail sont importants, moins la réglementation du marché du travail impose des coûts d'ajustement. Par ailleurs, dans les industries avec une base de connaissance cumulative, la protection de l'emploi et la coordination du système des relations du travail permettent aux entreprises d'exploiter pleinement le potentiel du marché interne du travail en alignant les objectifs des employés et des employeurs et en encourageant la formation financée par les entreprises ainsi que l'accumulation des compétences spécifiques à la firme.
This paper analyses several of the cross-market effects of policies aimed at influencing outcomes... more This paper analyses several of the cross-market effects of policies aimed at influencing outcomes in product and labour markets. Focusing on subsets of OECD countries, we look at the implications of product market competition for industry wages and overall employment, and the ...
Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLI... more Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(2001)38 For Official Use English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2001)38 2
Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLI... more Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP316(2002) Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP316(2002) Classification JEL : O31, O33, J50.
This article reviews the current state of research on unemployment dynamics in macroeconomic mode... more This article reviews the current state of research on unemployment dynamics in macroeconomic models. In particular, it discusses the increasingly widespread use of the labour-market flow approach as 5 implemented via a search and matching process and presents main policy considerations that arise from this approach related to unemployment benefit systems and employment protection. It reviews the implications of the labour-flow approach for dynamic properties of macroeconomic models and discusses policy implications for macroeconomic and labour-market policies. Finally, it presents new evidence on the effectiveness of policies to influence unemployment in-and outflows. 10
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