Papers by Oladotun D A N I E L Olaniran (Ph.D)
Faculty of Financial Studies, Osun State Polytechnic Iree, 4th National Conference (Virtual); 26th - 28th Jan, 2021, 2021
This study examined the nexus between external debt, inflation and fiscal performance in Nigeria ... more This study examined the nexus between external debt, inflation and fiscal performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. Annual time series data on fiscal deficit, external debt, inflation, exchange rate and interest rate was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The Phillip-Peron unit root test and the Engle-Granger cointegration test established that all the variables are stationary at their first difference and cointegrated respectively. The result of the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) regression showed that the interaction of external debt and inflation positively and significantly complement each other to influence fiscal performance in Nigeria. However, without interacting them together, external debt has a significant and positive relationship with fiscal performance while inflation has a negative and significant relationship with fiscal performance in Nigeria. The paper suggests proper and efficient management of external debts and inflation simultaneously in Nigeria if the desired level of fiscal performance is to be achieved.
Energy Economics Letters, 2020
This paper investigates the asymmetric oil price-inflation nexus in Nigeria covering the period o... more This paper investigates the asymmetric oil price-inflation nexus in Nigeria covering the period of 2009Q1 and 2018Q4. We adopt the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) model approach. The result of the study indicates that there exists a nonlinear long run connection between international oil price and inflation in Nigeria which suggests that fluctuations in oil price influence domestic inflation in Nigeria asymmetrically. Further, the result of the study indicates that in the long run, both increase and decrease in global oil price exerts a negative effect on inflation, that is, rise and fall in global oil price will lead to decline in inflation. However, in the short run, increase in global oil price exerts a positive influence on inflation which implies that positive oil price shock is inflationary. The study therefore recommends that government need to source for alternative energy in order to minimize the influence of international oil price shocks on domestic price level. Contribution/ Originality: This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the asymmetric effect of oil price on inflation in Nigeria. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) model, the study established that in the long run, both increase and decrease in global oil price exerts a negative effect on inflation in Nigeria.
Future Business Journal, 2021
Drawing from the experience of the global financial crisis that sprang forth from the US stock ma... more Drawing from the experience of the global financial crisis that sprang forth from the US stock market, an empirical assessment of the dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion with evidence from (5) African countries (South African, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia) is presented. Monthly stock prices indices from 2004 to 2018 was analyzed using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to ascertain the contagious effect of the US to the selected African markets. By analyzing the correlation coefficient series, three phases of the crisis periods were identified {pre-crisis (2004–2007); crisis (2007–2009) and post-crisis (2009–2018), respectively}. The study revealed that a significant relationship exists between the returns of the US market and the African markets. The inspection of the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis mean and variance estimation shows that the crisis period is characterized by substantial increases in volatility, establishing that the shoc...
Asian Development Policy Review
The study examined the role of monetary policy in the stock price-exchange rate nexus in the thre... more The study examined the role of monetary policy in the stock price-exchange rate nexus in the three major financial markets in Africa between 2005 and 2017. Essentially, the study attempted to validate the trade balance approach (TBA) for the African stock markets and conducted analyses in the periods before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). The study focused on Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt and utilized data on nominal exchange rate, stock price, nominal interest rate and consumer price index sourced from the International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund. The trend analysis revealed that stock price and exchange rate in South Africa moved in the same direction while the variables moved in different directions in Nigeria and Egypt. With the aid of the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique (PARDL), the study showed negative and significant relationship between exchange rate and stock price, validating the TBA for the full sample and the post GFC periods while the theory cannot be substantiated for the pre-GFC period. Contribution/ Originality: This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the role of monetary policy in the stock price-exchange rate nexus in Africa's three largest economies. Using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, the study validates the TBA for the full sample in African stock markets.
Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa: Clarion University of Pennsylvania, Clarion, Pennsylvania , 2018
The stability of the macroeconomic variables in any country is very essential for sustainable gro... more The stability of the macroeconomic variables in any country is very essential for sustainable growth and development. Hence, this study analyzed the trend of oil revenues and government spending on defence. This is with a view to determining the relationships between oil revenues, defence spending and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach to cointegration and error correction model (ECM) to determine the long and short run relationships between the variables used. Inflation and Unemployment were used as the proxy for macroeconomic stability as suggested by the Misery Index. The results showed that there is an inverse and significant relationship between military spending, GDP per capita and macroeconomic stability and a positive and significant relationship between oil revenues, exchange rate, gross capital formation and macroeconomic stability in the long and short run. The error correction model (ECM) was stable, highly significant and correctly signed. Therefore, government should improve and increase its spending on defence in order to maintain peace, political stability and order in the country.
Global Journal of human-Social Science: E Economics , 2018
This paper examined the relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in ... more This paper examined the relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. The paper used the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL),Structural Break Test and the Pairwise Granger Causality Test (PGC) to examine the effect of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria and to establish which theory holds for Nigeria between the demand-following and the supply-leading theory. Annual time series data between 1981 and 2016 was used for the study. Data on real gross domestic product, broad money supply/gdp, inflation, credit to the private sector/gdp, total liquid liabilities, total stocks/shares traded and total stock market capitalization were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The structural break unit root test revealed that all the variables are stationary at their first difference except for inflation that was stationary in its level form; the bound test cointegration analysis established the existence of long run relationship among the variables. The ARDL revealed that financial development negatively and insignificantly affected economic growth in Nigeria during the period of study.
This paper analyzed macroeconomic fluctuations and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 20... more This paper analyzed macroeconomic fluctuations and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The paper employed the Atheoretical Statistical Method of Analysis using cross correlations to examine the co-movement between key macroeconomic variables such as broad money supply, oil price, government expenditure, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and general household consumption and real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study and were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The stationary component of the variables was extracted using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and Band-Pass (BP) filter and then analyzed. The paper found out that all the macroeconomic variables were countercyclical and contemporaneously related to real gross domestic product, except for oil price and inflation where the filters produced mixed results of countercyclical and procyclical relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. The paper suggests effective and better management of macroeconomic variables if the desired level of growth is to be achieved. Abstract-This paper analyzed macroeconomic fluctuations and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The paper employed the Atheoretical Statistical Method of Analysis using cross correlations to examine the co-movement between key macroeconomic variables such as broad money supply, oil price, government expenditure, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and general household consumption and real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study and were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The stationary component of the variables was extracted using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and Band-Pass (BP) filter and then analyzed. The paper found out that all the macroeconomic variables were countercyclical and contemporaneously related to real gross domestic product, except for oil price and inflation where the filters produced mixed results of countercyclical and procyclical relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. The paper suggests effective and better management of macroeconomic variables if the desired level of growth is to be achieved.
This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and eco... more This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The study employed the vector auto regression technique (VAR) to investigate the business cycle effect on economic growth and its interaction with government expenditure and money supply in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study. Data on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), nominal gross domestic product (NGDP), broad money supply (M2) and government expenditure was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis from the VAR model showed that there is a dynamic relationship among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria, i.e., shocks to any of the variables affected all other variables used in the study. Business cycle affected growth and the performance of macroeconomic variables in the study period although its effect lacked persistence throughout the study period. Abstract-This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The study employed the vector auto regression technique (VAR) to investigate the business cycle effect on economic growth and its interaction with government expenditure and money supply in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study. Data on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), nominal gross domestic product (NGDP), broad money supply (M2) and government expenditure was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis from the VAR model showed that there is a dynamic relationship among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria, i.e., shocks to any of the variables affected all other variables used in the study. Business cycle affected growth and the performance of macroeconomic variables in the study period although its effect lacked persistence throughout the study period. Therefore, the paper concludes that business cycle and growth affects each other as against the view of earlier macroeconomists who posits that they are unrelated. Thus, the study proffers the use of stabilization policies for macroeconomic variables as well as ensuring that the business cycle effect is not trivialized in Nigeria.
This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and eco... more This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The study employed the vector auto regression technique (VAR) to investigate the business cycle effect on economic growth and its interaction with government expenditure and money supply in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study. Data on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), nominal gross domestic product (NGDP), broad money supply (M2) and government expenditure was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis from the VAR model showed that there is a dynamic relationship among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria, i.e., shocks to any of the variables affected all other variables used in the study. Business cycle affected growth and the performance of macroeconomic variables in the study period although its effect lacked persistence throughout the study period.
This paper examined business cycle and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The pape... more This paper examined business cycle and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The paper used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) to examine the short run and long run and short run effect of business cycle on economic growth in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study. Data on real gross domestic product, nominal gross domestic product, broad money supply, government expenditure, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The unit root test carried out revealed that all the variables were stationary at first difference except for the business cycle component that was stationary at level, furthermore, the bound test cointegration analysis established the existence of long run relationship among the variables. The result of the ARDL showed that business cycle negatively affected economic growth in the short run and positively affected economic growth in the long run. Government expenditure had a negative relationship with economic growth in Nigeria both in the short run and long run while inflation on the other hand, had a positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria both in the short and long run. Therefore, the paper recommends that business cycle and fluctuations of macroeconomic variables should not be trivialized by policymakers if the desired level of growth is to be achieved in Nigeria.
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Papers by Oladotun D A N I E L Olaniran (Ph.D)