Papers by Ruud G Egging-Bratseth
Batteries are crucial to manage the rising share of intermittent energy sources and variability i... more Batteries are crucial to manage the rising share of intermittent energy sources and variability in demand. ost techno-economic models in the literature oversimplify battery degradation representation. Accounting properly for battery degradation allows for better cost tradeoffs and optimal battery usage, especially in dynamic settings. We propose a highly accurate and scalable formulation for battery degradation that considers the combined impact of cycle depth and state of charge on calendar and cycle aging. We test the consequences of battery degradation in a stylized price arbitrage model on battery operation and solution times. When ignoring battery degradation, ex-post calculations reveal hidden degradation costs that exceed revenues and hence turn seemingly profitable trades into losing trades. Considering battery degradation leads to smaller cycle depths and lower average states of charge. Overall, we show that a much-improved representation of battery degradation is possible ...
Applied Energy, 2021
District heating is an under-researched part of the energy system, notwithstanding its enormous p... more District heating is an under-researched part of the energy system, notwithstanding its enormous potential to contribute to Greenhouse Gas emission reductions. Low-temperature district heating is a key technology for energy-efficient urban heat supply as it supports an efficient utilization of low-grade waste-heat and renewable heat sources. The low operating temperature for such grids facilitates the integration of seasonal thermal energy storage, enabling a high degree of operational flexibility in the utilization of both uncontrollable and controllable heat sources. Yet, an inherent challenge of optimizing the operation of low-temperature district heating networks and its flexibility is the underlying uncertainty in heat demand. We develop a new stochastic model to minimize the total operational cost of district heating networks with local waste heat utilization, seasonal storage and uncertain demand. We consider in particular how demand side management and seasonal storage can improve the operational flexibility and thereby reduce costs. We analyze different setups of a local low-temperature district heating network under development in a new residential area in Trondheim, Norway. We find up to 37% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, 29% generation reduction in peak hours, and 10% lower operational costs. These large values highlight the significance of flexibility options in low-temperature district heating networks for cost-effective, large-scale deployment. R. Egging-Bratseth et al.
The development of bioenergy, as a new business model integrated with environment and territory, ... more The development of bioenergy, as a new business model integrated with environment and territory, may be a valuable opportunity for farmers with positive effects both in socio-economic and environmental terms. However, largescale biomass plantations might increase pressure on the productive land and might cause a substantial increase of food prices. The main goal of the current study is to support the policy decision making in the renewable energy sector by quantitatively assessing impacts of alternative policy instruments at the sub-state regional level. The scenario analysis is performed using a multi-regional multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model applied to Basilicata region, Southern Italy, with, given the importance of agriculture in the area, a great deal attention on agricultural production level, food prices and land competition. Results shows that promoting bioenergy sector do not generate negative impact on food price, land use and welfare, supporting the ...
European Journal of Operational Research
The approach of choice to analyze markets with oligopolistic competition has traditionally been c... more The approach of choice to analyze markets with oligopolistic competition has traditionally been complementarity modeling. In this paper we show that the majority of partial equilibrium models under imperfect competition in the (energy-)economic literature can in fact be cast as optimization models, not requiring the derivation and implementation of Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. This is achieved by adding appropriate terms accounting for market power exertion to the well-known social welfare maximization objective. The method is applicable to both spatial Cournot oligopoly models and hybrid competition forms often implemented using conjectural variation approaches. We show how optimization and complementarity problems are equivalent, and provide a rationale for the terms accounting for market power exertion. Resulting models are solved orders of magnitude faster using off-the-shelf optimization software, compared to solving complementarity problems. Large problem instances take minutes rather than hours, and one instance solves 640 times faster. The drastically reduced solution times greatly enhance modeling capabilities as they allow increased geographical scope and represent economic, technical and other characteristics in much more detail in equilibrium problems with imperfect competition. We present practical implications for the partial and multi-level equilibrium modeling community.
ABSTRACT This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementari... more ABSTRACT This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. 1 The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in shorter solution times relative to solving the extensive-forms. Larger problems, up to 117,481 variables, were solved in extensive-form, but not when applying BD due to numerical issues. It is discussed how BD could significantly reduce the solution time of large-scale stochastic models, but various challenges remain and more research is needed to assess the potential of Benders decomposition for solving large-scale stochastic MCP. 1 www.gecforum.org
... Oligopolistic market behavior could give rise to market power by these firms. ... There clear... more ... Oligopolistic market behavior could give rise to market power by these firms. ... There clearly is a risk that certain players in the European natural gas market can be ... By contrast, the storage operators and transportation operators are taken to be perfectly competitive with no market ...
European Journal of Operational Research, 2014
Corrigendum to ''Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems ... more Corrigendum to ''Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems -Applied to a global natural gas market model' ' [Eur. J. Oper. Res. 226 (2013) 341-353] Ruud Egging multiplier p m c m (discount rate in tree node m multiplied by the probability of its occurrence) to d d (number of days in demand season d).
In this paper we analyze the consequences of an LNG Import Terminal Ban for the US Pacific Coast ... more In this paper we analyze the consequences of an LNG Import Terminal Ban for the US Pacific Coast along with potential developments of the world natu ral gas market until 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we present a Base
European Journal of Operational Research, 2013
ABSTRACT This paper presents and implements a Benders Decomposition type of algorithm for large-s... more ABSTRACT This paper presents and implements a Benders Decomposition type of algorithm for large-scale, stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems. The algorithm is applied to various multi-stage natural gas market models accounting for market power exertion by traders. Due to the non-optimization nature of the natural gas market problem, a straightforward implementation of the traditional Benders Decomposition is not possible. The master and subproblems can be derived from the underlying optimization problems and transformed into complementarity problems. However, to complete the master problems optimality cuts are added using the variational inequality-based method developed in Gabriel and Fuller (2010). In this manner, an alternative derivation of Benders Decomposition for Stochastic MCP is presented, thereby making this approach more applicable to a broader audience. The algorithm can successfully solve problems with up to 256 scenarios and more than 600 thousand variables, and problems with over 117 thousand variables with more than two thousand first-stage capacity expansion variables. The algorithm is efficient for solving two-stage problems. The computational time reduction for other stochastic problems is considerable and would be even larger if a parallel implementation of the algorithm were used. The paper concludes with a discussion of infrastructure expansion results, illustrating the impact of hedging on investment timing and optimal capacity sizes.
... Search for publications: Limit search to Title/Abstract Publicationnumber Author. ECN publica... more ... Search for publications: Limit search to Title/Abstract Publicationnumber Author. ECN publication: Title: Long-term gas supply security in an enlarged Europe. Final report ENGAGED project. ...
Natural gas is increasingly important as a fuel for electric power generation as well as other us... more Natural gas is increasingly important as a fuel for electric power generation as well as other uses due to its environmental advantage over other fossil fuels. Using the World Gas Model, a largescale energy equilibrium system based on a complementarity formulation, this paper analyzes possible future gas cartels and their effects on gas markets in a number of regions across the world. In addition, scenarios related to lower transport costs and decreased unconventional gas supply in the United States are considered.
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2015
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon... more In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas reserves, such as shale gas; ii) on the contrary, tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas reserves in the world; and iii) the impact of CO 2 -constraints and the emergence of a competing environmental friendly "backstop technology". Regional scenarios that have a global impact are: iv) the full halt of Russian and Caspian natural gas exports to Western Europe; v) sharply constrained production and export activities in the Arab Gulf; vi) heavily increasing demand for natural gas in China and India; and finally vii) constraints on liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development on the US Pacific Coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, and prices between the scenarios. Investments in pipelines, LNG terminals and storage are also affected. However, overall the world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions with natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructur... more ABSTRACT In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas consumption, along the lines of the IEA (2012) World Energy Outlook's New Policy Scenario; and iii) a temporary increase of natural gas use as a bridge technology, followed by a strong decrease after 2030. Our results show that import infrastructure and intra-European transit capacity currently in place or under construction are largely sufficient to accommodate the import needs of the EMF decarbonization scenarios, despite the reduction of domestic production and the increase of import dependency. However, due to strong demand in Asia which draws LNG and imports from Russia, Europe has to increasingly rely on pipeline exports from Africa and the Caspian region from where new pipelines are built. Moreover, pipeline investments open up new import and transit paths, including reverse flow capacity, which improves the diversification of supplies. In the high gas consumption scenario similar pipeline links are realized-though on a larger scale, doubling the costs of infrastructure expansion. In the bridge technology scenario, the utilization rates of (idle) LNG import capacity can be increased for the short period of temporary strong natural gas demand. https://www.diw.de/sixcms/detail.php?id=diw_01.c.417169.de
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT Assessing and quantifying the impacts of technological, economic, and policy shifts in t... more ABSTRACT Assessing and quantifying the impacts of technological, economic, and policy shifts in the global energy system require large-scale numerical models. We propose a dynamic multi-fuel market equilibrium model that combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behaviour and market power aspects by suppliers in a unified framework. This model is the first of its kind in which market power is exerted across several fuels. Using a data set based on the IEA (International Energy Agency) World Energy Outlook 2013 (New Policies scenario, time horizon 2010–2050, 30 regions, 10 fuels), we illustrate the functionality of the model in two scenarios: a reduction of shale gas availability in the US relative to current projections leads to an even stronger increase of power generation from natural gas in the European Union relative to the base case; this is due to a shift in global fossil fuel trade. In the second scenario, a tightening of the EU ETS emission cap by 80% in 2050 combined with a stronger biofuel mandate spawns a renaissance of nuclear power after 2030 and a strong electrification of the transportation sector. We observe carbon leakage rates from the unilateral mitigation effort of 60–70%.
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Papers by Ruud G Egging-Bratseth