Papers in Academic Journals by Johan Holmgren
There is growing interest in measuring efficiency and productivity in the public sector. Most com... more There is growing interest in measuring efficiency and productivity in the public sector. Most commonly this is done using data envelopment analysis (DEA) or Stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to determine the level of (in)efficiency of different decision-making units. These methods have also been applied to public transport. However, in this context their application presents some problems, including how to define what is produced and how that should be measured. Several options have been suggested including vehicle-kilometres, number of trips, number of passenger-kilometres, and scores in passenger satisfaction surveys.
The primary aim of this paper is to discuss how production of public transport should be defined and measured in efficiency studies. It is argued that output should be measured by number of trips and vehicle-kilometres as these together represent consumers' willingness to pay for public transport services.
A proposed model for evaluating the efficiency of public transport operations is presented and estimated. This model is evaluated by comparing its results to those obtained from competing models estimated using the same data from 27 Swedish counties from 1986 to 2015. The data are used to estimate stochastic cost frontier models and it is concluded that the models using only vehicle-kilometres or only passenger trips tend to underestimate efficiency compared to a model using both at the same time. It is also concluded that smaller models (using only a single output measure) result in different rankings of the decision-making units.
Maritime port efficiency is a research area that has received considerable attention in recent ye... more Maritime port efficiency is a research area that has received considerable attention in recent years. While the accumulated empirical evidence concerning the drivers of port efficiency is large, there has not been any attempt at systematically assessing the causes of (in)efficiency through quantitative meta-analysis. This study therefore uses a compounded dataset of port efficiency estimates from 52 studies and regresses these estimates on port and country characteristics, while controlling for study-specific and methodological effects. Surveying the literature,
we find that there is a lack of attention paid to the user side of port service production, which has crucial implications for the interpretation of efficiency estimates. At the cross-country level, we find a negative relationship between GDP per capita and estimated port efficiency, as well as a negative relationship between intra-port competition and estimated efficiency. We discuss the interpretation of these findings in the context of partial production functions, and argue that a large portion of the applied methods do not capture substitution between
producer and user inputs. We also find that the ratio of military spending to GDP is positively related to estimated port efficiency, while a higher degree of product concentration in trade flows is associated with lower levels of estimated efficiency.
One of the official transport policy objectives in Sweden is that all citizens should have access... more One of the official transport policy objectives in Sweden is that all citizens should have access to the transport system. The public sector is therefore required by law to provide special transport services (STS) for those who are unable to use public transport or private car. STS is often provided through public procurement of taxi services. As a response to new legislation in 2000, there have been developments in the public transport sector, making buses, trains and other parts of the system more accessible to people with disabilities. These developments have also been driven by other objectives, such as reducing costs in STS by transferring passengers from STS to regular public transport. However, so far, there is little evidence of the effects of public transport access on STS usage. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of public transport system design on the demand for STS permits and usage. The main focus is on how different aspects of the general public transport system (e.g. price and supply levels) affect the demand for STS permits and STS usage per permit. In addition, the analysis will control for socioeconomic and geographical variables. It is concluded that the price and supply level of public transport do affect STS travel. Public transport price affects the demand for permits as well as the demand for trips from permit holders. Public transport service level only has an effect on the demand for permits.
Investing in infrastructure is often seen as an important part of economic policy, at the regiona... more Investing in infrastructure is often seen as an important part of economic policy, at the regional, national as well as international level. Investing in infrastructure is often presented as a solution to a number of problems such as unemployment, depopulation of rural areas and low economic activity. A number of studies have tried to estimate the effects on production from investing in infrastructure. The aim of this study is therefore to provide a systematic analysis of previous studies of this relationship. For that purpose, a meta-analysis of 776 estimates of elasticity of production with respect to infrastructure, was performed. The estimated effect (elasticity of production) of investing in infrastructure varies from −0.06 to 0.52. The effects appear to vary depending on the type of infrastructure in with the investment is made as well as between industries. It is also found that the estimated effects exhibiting high precision, are clustered around zero. This is to say that the higher the reliability of the estimate, the closer it is to zero.
Fire and rescue services (FRS) in Sweden have recently undergone organisational changes aiming at... more Fire and rescue services (FRS) in Sweden have recently undergone organisational changes aiming at improving service quality and efficiency. Among those changes are an increased number of formalised cooperations between FRSs, increased collaboration with other sectors, changes in the structure of rescue teams, and an increase in the tasks performed by the services. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether these policy changes have resulted in increased cost efficiency in the Swedish FRS. We used stochastic frontier analysis of annual data from Swedish municipalities, taking into account contextual differences. No evidence of improved efficiency in the FRS could be found. The policy changes implemented have not had the desired effects, and most of the policy variables tested for inclusion in the model were not significant. The results also show great variation in efficiency between FRSs which could be used for benchmarking and basis for further analysis.
Research in Transportation Economics, 2014
For a long time public transport has experienced a struggle against rising costs and increasing c... more For a long time public transport has experienced a struggle against rising costs and increasing car ownership. So far, public transport appears to be on the losing side in terms of market shares. The aim if this paper is to investigate if a different policy could result in higher public transport usage and improved social welfare. In order to achieve this, a model, explaining public transport usage, public transport supply and costs, is estimated. The model is then used in order to simulate the outcome of an alternative policy of social welfare maximization. It is found that the current policy of the Swedish transport is not efficient in terms of maximizing welfare. In 2011, public transport fares should have been lower in 20 of 21 counties and the supply of vehicle kilometres should have been higher in 17 of 21 counties. Implementing a welfare maximizing policy would have increased the number of trips per capita by 17.2% in 2011 and by an average of 6.7% for the period 1986-2011.
Rivista Internazionale di Economia dei Transporti / International Journal of Transport Economics, 2014
On-going urbanization has led to greater distances between homes and workplaces and more long-dis... more On-going urbanization has led to greater distances between homes and workplaces and more long-distance commuting, increasing the need for efficient inter-urban transport infrastructure. For sustainability, trains are preferred to private cars. Two key variables affecting door-to-door train travel time are in-vehicle time (IVT) and headway ; however, there is often a trade-off between speed and frequency in a system. If different categories of travellers value IVT and headway differently, their proportions on a route should affect traffic planning. Optimal system design might differ between routes carrying many commuters and routes carrying mainly passengers on single private or business trips. Knowledge of differences in relative valuations of headway versus IVT should therefore affect railway system design. We investigate whether the relative values of headway versus IVT differ between inter- urban commuting by train and single inter-urban trips by train, whilst also examining diff...
European Transport Research Review, 2013
Purpose In order for public transport to be a part of the solution to the environmental problems ... more Purpose In order for public transport to be a part of the solution to the environmental problems caused by traffic there need to be a clear understanding of how, and to what extent, different factors affect demand. There still seem to be some confusion regarding some key relationships, one of them being the effect of income on public transport demand. The purpose of this article is therefore to provide empirical estimates of how different factors, including price and car ownership (although income being the main issue), affect the demand for local public transport. Methods In order to achieve the aim of the study, an econometric FD-model, allowing for unobserved effects, was estimated using panel data from Swedish counes from 1986 to 2001. Results The short-run (direct) elascies with respect to fare, vehicle-kilometres, income and car ownership were found to be −0,4, 0,55, 0,34, and −1,37 respectively. However, income affects public transport demand directly, and through its effect on car ownership, these effects works in opposite direction. Combining these it is found that total income effect is close to zero. Conclusions It is concluded that, although the findings of several previous studies suggests that demand for public transport might be falling with increased income, there is no evidence of such effects even when the full effect of changes in income (including changes in car ownership) is taken into account.
Research in Transportation Economics, 2013
The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of public transport operations undertaken in ... more The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of public transport operations undertaken in Swedish counties by the public transport authorities (PTA), taking into account the substantial differences in operating conditions between counties. The analysis will be performed using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) with annual data from 1986 to 2009 for 26 Swedish counties. The analysis shows how the efficiency of the individual counties has changed over time. The results are used to provide a ranking (in terms of efficiency) of the Swedish public transport authorities that can provide a basis for benchmarking. It is concluded that the efficiency of the public transport providers in all counties fell during the observed time period. Defining cost efficiency as the ratio of minimum cost to observed cost, the overall (average) cost efficiency for the industry fell from 85.7% in the eighties to 60.4% for the period from 2000 to 2009. Possible explanations for the development include increased emphasis on route density as well as higher environmental and safety requirements.
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2012
In this study, data on short distance goods transports is analysed in order to determine if varia... more In this study, data on short distance goods transports is analysed in order to determine if variations in the amounts of goods generated could be explained by geographical and demographical variables. The main purpose is to see if the urbanization and concentration of economic activities has resulted in higher efficiency in the production process, thereby severing the link between increased economic activity and increased transport volumes. The study uses yearly data on freight transport made by truck in 21 Swedish counties between 2000 and 2009, making the number of observations 210. The final model estimated show that after taking geographical and demographical factors into account there is a negative relationship between economic activity and volume of goods transported. This indicates that it is possible to achieve economic growth without necessarily having to accept higher levels of goods transported locally.
Regulation & Governance, 2011
Using private contractors through procurement is common in most public sector areas. Despite the ... more Using private contractors through procurement is common in most public sector areas. Despite the benefits of procurement, officials are sometimes tempted to circumvent procurement regulations. The aim of this article is to examine the strategies used by local governmental decisionmakers to bypass procurement regulations and to analyze the rationality underlying these officials' actions. Interviews, court documents, municipal documents, and newspaper articles describing the actions of Swedish municipal officials concerning special transport service (STS) procurements were collected and analyzed. In a case in which rural municipalities lost regular taxi services after STS procurement, we demonstrate how decisions were driven by pressure from the public and local interest groups, making municipal officials deviate from procurement regulations in striving to secure the existence of regular taxi services. One outcome was that local businesses were given preferential treatment, violating regulations and reducing economic efficiency.r ego_1110 368..385
Research in Transportation Economics, 2010
This paper evaluates the policy of Swedish public transport authorities, determining whether the ... more This paper evaluates the policy of Swedish public transport authorities, determining whether the number of trips on local public transport could have been increased without increasing subsidies. Based on annual data from Swedish counties, the evaluation found that between 1986 and 2001 public transport fares exceeded the passenger-maximizing fare most of the time in all but two counties, the average deviation being 1-215%. Evaluating the alternative, passenger-maximizing policy, including both fare and service changes for 2001, demonstrated that demand for local public transport in Swedish counties could have been increased by 0-178% without increasing subsidies. Aggregated, this represents a 2.3% increase in the number of trips on local public transport in Sweden.
Research in Transportation Economics, 2008
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2007
analysis of public transport demand 1(33)
Books and Book Chapters by Johan Holmgren
Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Transport Economics and Policy, 2015
13.1 Introduction This chapter aims at outlining pricing policy for public transport that maximiz... more 13.1 Introduction This chapter aims at outlining pricing policy for public transport that maximizes the social surplus, that is, the sum of the producer surplus and the consumer surplus, while internalising possible system-external costs. It starts by presenting the door-to-door transport cost as a key concept in price theory for public transport, and then first principles of optimal pricing valid for all modes of public transport are laid down. These principles are applied to urban (short-distance) public transport in sections 2-5 and to interurban (long-distance) public transport in section 6. Section 7 summarises the methodological conclusions.
WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, 2012
This thesis consists of four papers where the overall purpose is to contribute to the understandi... more This thesis consists of four papers where the overall purpose is to contribute to the understanding of how local public transport demand is affected by different factors. An underlying theme running trough the thesis is the two-way relationship between public transport demand and the service level, caused by the fact that capacity and quality are joint products.
Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport, 2005
Conference papers by Johan Holmgren
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Papers in Academic Journals by Johan Holmgren
The primary aim of this paper is to discuss how production of public transport should be defined and measured in efficiency studies. It is argued that output should be measured by number of trips and vehicle-kilometres as these together represent consumers' willingness to pay for public transport services.
A proposed model for evaluating the efficiency of public transport operations is presented and estimated. This model is evaluated by comparing its results to those obtained from competing models estimated using the same data from 27 Swedish counties from 1986 to 2015. The data are used to estimate stochastic cost frontier models and it is concluded that the models using only vehicle-kilometres or only passenger trips tend to underestimate efficiency compared to a model using both at the same time. It is also concluded that smaller models (using only a single output measure) result in different rankings of the decision-making units.
we find that there is a lack of attention paid to the user side of port service production, which has crucial implications for the interpretation of efficiency estimates. At the cross-country level, we find a negative relationship between GDP per capita and estimated port efficiency, as well as a negative relationship between intra-port competition and estimated efficiency. We discuss the interpretation of these findings in the context of partial production functions, and argue that a large portion of the applied methods do not capture substitution between
producer and user inputs. We also find that the ratio of military spending to GDP is positively related to estimated port efficiency, while a higher degree of product concentration in trade flows is associated with lower levels of estimated efficiency.
Books and Book Chapters by Johan Holmgren
Conference papers by Johan Holmgren
The primary aim of this paper is to discuss how production of public transport should be defined and measured in efficiency studies. It is argued that output should be measured by number of trips and vehicle-kilometres as these together represent consumers' willingness to pay for public transport services.
A proposed model for evaluating the efficiency of public transport operations is presented and estimated. This model is evaluated by comparing its results to those obtained from competing models estimated using the same data from 27 Swedish counties from 1986 to 2015. The data are used to estimate stochastic cost frontier models and it is concluded that the models using only vehicle-kilometres or only passenger trips tend to underestimate efficiency compared to a model using both at the same time. It is also concluded that smaller models (using only a single output measure) result in different rankings of the decision-making units.
we find that there is a lack of attention paid to the user side of port service production, which has crucial implications for the interpretation of efficiency estimates. At the cross-country level, we find a negative relationship between GDP per capita and estimated port efficiency, as well as a negative relationship between intra-port competition and estimated efficiency. We discuss the interpretation of these findings in the context of partial production functions, and argue that a large portion of the applied methods do not capture substitution between
producer and user inputs. We also find that the ratio of military spending to GDP is positively related to estimated port efficiency, while a higher degree of product concentration in trade flows is associated with lower levels of estimated efficiency.