Brazil is an important player in the global beef market exporting throughout the world. The Brazi... more Brazil is an important player in the global beef market exporting throughout the world. The Brazilian livestock sector contributes to about 3% of the national GDP, and it has the potential for further increasing its beef exports; only about 1/5 of its beef production currently goes for export – at the same time domestic beef consumption has been rising. It has various competitive advantages compared to other major exporters but it has faced questions in recent years on the adverse impact of the beef industry has on the environment – particularly in relation to GHG emissions. Historically, the main challenge has come from criticism that the increased land needed for higher beef production levels has caused greater deforestation. However, this is no longer the case as Brazil is increasing its production by improvements in productivity rather than devoting more land to cattle farming. This paper shows the contribution that improvements in stocking rates, calving intervals and increasin...
Its major sources of funding have been al1.l1uai grants from the Department of Scientific and Ind... more Its major sources of funding have been al1.l1uai grants from the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research and the College. These grants have been supplemented by others from commercial and other organisations for specific research projects within New Zealand and overseas. The Unit has on hand a programme of research in the fields of agricyltural economics and management, including production, marketing and policy, resource economics, and the economicsoflocation and transportation. The results of these research studies are published as Research Reports as projects are completed. In addition, technical papers, discussion papers and reprints of papers. published or delivered elsewhere are available on request. For list of previous publications see inside back cover. The Unit and the Department of Agricultura,lEconomics and Marketing and .the Department of Farm Management and. Rural Valuation maintain a dqse working relationship in research and associated matters. The combined academic staff of the Departments is around 25. The Unit also sponsors periodic conferences and seminars on appropriate topics, sOl;netimes in conjunction with other organis.ations.
Abstract. Generalised linear estimation and multi-layer perception neural network modelling techn... more Abstract. Generalised linear estimation and multi-layer perception neural network modelling techniques were applied to the Scottish trawler fleet data in order to estimate which inputs have the greatest impact on boat profits and output. Both produced comparable estimates that revealed inelastic and non-linear response to vessel power and length, negative response to vessel size (tonnage), and elastic response to both trip frequency and trip duration. Profit and catch-effort elasticities were greater for smaller vessels.
... (b) Prices of competitive products In view of the increase in the Lindsey barley acreage, ove... more ... (b) Prices of competitive products In view of the increase in the Lindsey barley acreage, over the period, from 146,958 acres to 236,349 acres, and the remarkable expansion of vining peas for processing from 6,241 acres to 37,071, barley and peas appear to be strong ...
Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future i... more Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.
In considering markets for meat, it is important to distinguish between what a market may want an... more In considering markets for meat, it is important to distinguish between what a market may want and what it can have. The objectives and operation of national and international policies and legislation are frequently at variance with those of the marketplace. Policies have been designed either to modify market signals or to offset some of their effects, principally on production, but also on consumption and trade. They usually place constraints on availability and/or radically alter price signals to producers. In a recent report (OECD, 1982), it was observed that‘Government intervention in domestic and international meat markets is increasing. All major beef importing countries now control beef imports in some way or another. The introduction of the EEC Sheepmeat Regime could in the future have a major impact on the pattern of sheepmeat trade flows. The importation of meat by many of the newly developed markets is controlled by state trading institutions.’
The objective of this study was to explain the determinants of the fresh vegetables purchase deci... more The objective of this study was to explain the determinants of the fresh vegetables purchase decision by Chinese urban consumers in Beijing including awareness and attitudes to food safety, and their willingness to pay (WTP) more for specific safety characteristics when buying fresh vegetables. The research rationale arises out of a history of food safety scares and scandals in China, and a national government response to promote quality assurance and safety through labelling. The primary hypothesis was that an understanding of food safety systems and product labelling, and trust in supply chain integrity would be key determinants in consumer willingness to purchase and pay more for safety assured vegetables. Based on a questionnaire survey of consumers in Beijing, the analysis found that the major factors underlying the purchase decision of fresh vegetables were product freshness, convenience and competitive price rather than assured product labelling. The decisions whether to purchase assurance-labelled vegetables and WTP more for chemical residue-free product were analysed by binomial and ordinal multinomial logit modelling respectively. It revealed a WTP moreof between 20% and 40%. Monthly household income was a key determinant of both quality assured product and WTP, together with degree of concern over residues, trust in retailer and assurance labels and place of purchase. The results suggest much still remains to be done to build trust though rigorous monitoring and enforcement of food safety standards to improve supply chain integrity and consumer confidence.
88Th Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economics Society, Apr 1, 2014
A bi-lateral trade agreement between the EU and the South American trading bloc known as Mercosur... more A bi-lateral trade agreement between the EU and the South American trading bloc known as Mercosur has been under consideration since 1995, with periodic hiatuses in negotiations since their inception. During the past twelve years there have been concurrent multilateral negotiations taking place under the WTO Doha Development Agenda. This work examines the potential production, trade and environmental outcomes for the EU and Mercosur that could arise under each of the trade negotiations using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model, a multicommodity and multi-country partial equilibrium model focused on projecting changes in international markets for agricultural products, and the greenhouse gas and nitrate implications from the outputs of these markets. The Scenarios presented include trade liberalisation, both global and EU/Mercosur specific, those which have been proposed under the Doha Development Agenda ranging around the 2008 Revised Draft Modalities document, and the 2004 and 2006 EU bi-lateral trade offer to Mercosur.
There has been much analysis of the potential impact of China's membership of the WTO on world tr... more There has been much analysis of the potential impact of China's membership of the WTO on world trade in agricultural products but few studies of the actual effects thus far on China's trade performance. This paper compares changes in the competitiveness of China's trade in primary agricultural food and processed food products over the period 1998 to 2003 through a range of comparative advantage measures, the preferred being Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage. It also decomposes changes in China's export market share of these products over the period into structural and performance components and identifies where shifts in the global regional distribution of its exports have contributed to changes in its overall market share.
The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is incr... more The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. Suppliers of fresh produce to UK and EU multiple retailers are utilising new procurement areas for fresh produce importation to reduce their costs of production. The objective of this paper is to identify current and future supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they provide invasion pathways. The hypothesis that increased importation of fresh produce from new sources outside the EU could increase the risks of non-indigenous pests is tested in a bio-economic model in which the number of species detections per unit of imports is a function of the number of inspections per unit of imports and country of origin, while the volume of imports is itself a function of the gross domestic product, relative import prices, policy and seasonality variables. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes and pest species detections increasing from new supply sources. The study found that risk of pest species differs significantly with the country of origin of commodity. If this trend should continue in the future, then UK plant health inspectors should expect to confront pest species in much greater numbers. The results support the case for discriminatory policy to use the limited resources available in a way that will more closely target inspection efforts on the higher risk trade pathways.
Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent... more Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent in the consumption mix has altered to reflect the greater availability of farmed species and the decline in some marine-caught species. This paper examines the retail demand for fish in the UK and the implications this has for fisheries policy. A two-stage demand model using a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is estimated from retail panel data for fish and fish products in Great Britain.1 Both conditional and unconditional expenditure, own- and cross-price elasticities of demand are derived from the parameter estimates. Haddock, salmon, flatfish, shellfish, and smoked fish are expenditure elastic, implying that income growth will strongly increase demand for these species. Most species are own-price inelastic, suggesting that policy driven catch restrictions can increase expenditure on fish and may reduce the short-run incentives of commercial fishermen to comply.
Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent... more Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent in the consumption mix has altered to reflect the greater availability of farmed species and the decline in some marine-caught species. This paper examines the retail demand for fish in the UK and the implications this has for fisheries policy. A two-stage demand model using a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is estimated from retail panel data for fish and fish products in Great Britain.1 Both conditional and unconditional expenditure, own- and cross-price elasticities of demand are derived from the parameter estimates. Haddock, salmon, flatfish, shellfish, and smoked fish are expenditure elastic, implying that income growth will strongly increase demand for these species. Most species are own-price inelastic, suggesting that policy driven catch restrictions can increase expenditure on fish and may reduce the short-run incentives of commercial fishermen to comply.
Brazil is an important player in the global beef market exporting throughout the world. The Brazi... more Brazil is an important player in the global beef market exporting throughout the world. The Brazilian livestock sector contributes to about 3% of the national GDP, and it has the potential for further increasing its beef exports; only about 1/5 of its beef production currently goes for export – at the same time domestic beef consumption has been rising. It has various competitive advantages compared to other major exporters but it has faced questions in recent years on the adverse impact of the beef industry has on the environment – particularly in relation to GHG emissions. Historically, the main challenge has come from criticism that the increased land needed for higher beef production levels has caused greater deforestation. However, this is no longer the case as Brazil is increasing its production by improvements in productivity rather than devoting more land to cattle farming. This paper shows the contribution that improvements in stocking rates, calving intervals and increasin...
Its major sources of funding have been al1.l1uai grants from the Department of Scientific and Ind... more Its major sources of funding have been al1.l1uai grants from the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research and the College. These grants have been supplemented by others from commercial and other organisations for specific research projects within New Zealand and overseas. The Unit has on hand a programme of research in the fields of agricyltural economics and management, including production, marketing and policy, resource economics, and the economicsoflocation and transportation. The results of these research studies are published as Research Reports as projects are completed. In addition, technical papers, discussion papers and reprints of papers. published or delivered elsewhere are available on request. For list of previous publications see inside back cover. The Unit and the Department of Agricultura,lEconomics and Marketing and .the Department of Farm Management and. Rural Valuation maintain a dqse working relationship in research and associated matters. The combined academic staff of the Departments is around 25. The Unit also sponsors periodic conferences and seminars on appropriate topics, sOl;netimes in conjunction with other organis.ations.
Abstract. Generalised linear estimation and multi-layer perception neural network modelling techn... more Abstract. Generalised linear estimation and multi-layer perception neural network modelling techniques were applied to the Scottish trawler fleet data in order to estimate which inputs have the greatest impact on boat profits and output. Both produced comparable estimates that revealed inelastic and non-linear response to vessel power and length, negative response to vessel size (tonnage), and elastic response to both trip frequency and trip duration. Profit and catch-effort elasticities were greater for smaller vessels.
... (b) Prices of competitive products In view of the increase in the Lindsey barley acreage, ove... more ... (b) Prices of competitive products In view of the increase in the Lindsey barley acreage, over the period, from 146,958 acres to 236,349 acres, and the remarkable expansion of vining peas for processing from 6,241 acres to 37,071, barley and peas appear to be strong ...
Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future i... more Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.
In considering markets for meat, it is important to distinguish between what a market may want an... more In considering markets for meat, it is important to distinguish between what a market may want and what it can have. The objectives and operation of national and international policies and legislation are frequently at variance with those of the marketplace. Policies have been designed either to modify market signals or to offset some of their effects, principally on production, but also on consumption and trade. They usually place constraints on availability and/or radically alter price signals to producers. In a recent report (OECD, 1982), it was observed that‘Government intervention in domestic and international meat markets is increasing. All major beef importing countries now control beef imports in some way or another. The introduction of the EEC Sheepmeat Regime could in the future have a major impact on the pattern of sheepmeat trade flows. The importation of meat by many of the newly developed markets is controlled by state trading institutions.’
The objective of this study was to explain the determinants of the fresh vegetables purchase deci... more The objective of this study was to explain the determinants of the fresh vegetables purchase decision by Chinese urban consumers in Beijing including awareness and attitudes to food safety, and their willingness to pay (WTP) more for specific safety characteristics when buying fresh vegetables. The research rationale arises out of a history of food safety scares and scandals in China, and a national government response to promote quality assurance and safety through labelling. The primary hypothesis was that an understanding of food safety systems and product labelling, and trust in supply chain integrity would be key determinants in consumer willingness to purchase and pay more for safety assured vegetables. Based on a questionnaire survey of consumers in Beijing, the analysis found that the major factors underlying the purchase decision of fresh vegetables were product freshness, convenience and competitive price rather than assured product labelling. The decisions whether to purchase assurance-labelled vegetables and WTP more for chemical residue-free product were analysed by binomial and ordinal multinomial logit modelling respectively. It revealed a WTP moreof between 20% and 40%. Monthly household income was a key determinant of both quality assured product and WTP, together with degree of concern over residues, trust in retailer and assurance labels and place of purchase. The results suggest much still remains to be done to build trust though rigorous monitoring and enforcement of food safety standards to improve supply chain integrity and consumer confidence.
88Th Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economics Society, Apr 1, 2014
A bi-lateral trade agreement between the EU and the South American trading bloc known as Mercosur... more A bi-lateral trade agreement between the EU and the South American trading bloc known as Mercosur has been under consideration since 1995, with periodic hiatuses in negotiations since their inception. During the past twelve years there have been concurrent multilateral negotiations taking place under the WTO Doha Development Agenda. This work examines the potential production, trade and environmental outcomes for the EU and Mercosur that could arise under each of the trade negotiations using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model, a multicommodity and multi-country partial equilibrium model focused on projecting changes in international markets for agricultural products, and the greenhouse gas and nitrate implications from the outputs of these markets. The Scenarios presented include trade liberalisation, both global and EU/Mercosur specific, those which have been proposed under the Doha Development Agenda ranging around the 2008 Revised Draft Modalities document, and the 2004 and 2006 EU bi-lateral trade offer to Mercosur.
There has been much analysis of the potential impact of China's membership of the WTO on world tr... more There has been much analysis of the potential impact of China's membership of the WTO on world trade in agricultural products but few studies of the actual effects thus far on China's trade performance. This paper compares changes in the competitiveness of China's trade in primary agricultural food and processed food products over the period 1998 to 2003 through a range of comparative advantage measures, the preferred being Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage. It also decomposes changes in China's export market share of these products over the period into structural and performance components and identifies where shifts in the global regional distribution of its exports have contributed to changes in its overall market share.
The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is incr... more The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. Suppliers of fresh produce to UK and EU multiple retailers are utilising new procurement areas for fresh produce importation to reduce their costs of production. The objective of this paper is to identify current and future supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they provide invasion pathways. The hypothesis that increased importation of fresh produce from new sources outside the EU could increase the risks of non-indigenous pests is tested in a bio-economic model in which the number of species detections per unit of imports is a function of the number of inspections per unit of imports and country of origin, while the volume of imports is itself a function of the gross domestic product, relative import prices, policy and seasonality variables. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes and pest species detections increasing from new supply sources. The study found that risk of pest species differs significantly with the country of origin of commodity. If this trend should continue in the future, then UK plant health inspectors should expect to confront pest species in much greater numbers. The results support the case for discriminatory policy to use the limited resources available in a way that will more closely target inspection efforts on the higher risk trade pathways.
Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent... more Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent in the consumption mix has altered to reflect the greater availability of farmed species and the decline in some marine-caught species. This paper examines the retail demand for fish in the UK and the implications this has for fisheries policy. A two-stage demand model using a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is estimated from retail panel data for fish and fish products in Great Britain.1 Both conditional and unconditional expenditure, own- and cross-price elasticities of demand are derived from the parameter estimates. Haddock, salmon, flatfish, shellfish, and smoked fish are expenditure elastic, implying that income growth will strongly increase demand for these species. Most species are own-price inelastic, suggesting that policy driven catch restrictions can increase expenditure on fish and may reduce the short-run incentives of commercial fishermen to comply.
Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent... more Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent in the consumption mix has altered to reflect the greater availability of farmed species and the decline in some marine-caught species. This paper examines the retail demand for fish in the UK and the implications this has for fisheries policy. A two-stage demand model using a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is estimated from retail panel data for fish and fish products in Great Britain.1 Both conditional and unconditional expenditure, own- and cross-price elasticities of demand are derived from the parameter estimates. Haddock, salmon, flatfish, shellfish, and smoked fish are expenditure elastic, implying that income growth will strongly increase demand for these species. Most species are own-price inelastic, suggesting that policy driven catch restrictions can increase expenditure on fish and may reduce the short-run incentives of commercial fishermen to comply.
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