Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp... more Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp fall in oil prices in 2015. However, such dependence creates development challenges for her. Simulated impact of prioritized economic reform policies—using a computable general equilibrium model (AZEORANI)—shows that, under the business-as-usual case with oil prices at 2011 level, it is projected to grow by 2.0% a year to 2030. However, consistent policy reforms enable enhanced growth by another 1.1 percentage points annually due to productivity boost and increased exports from non-oil sectors, viz., tourism and agriculture. In particular, following strategic roadmap, we consider baseline and policy shocks—10% improvement in productive efficiency, investment boost by 5% in non-mineral sector, and enhanced agricultural efficiency by 5%, and boost in tourism and transport by 10% via logistics-infrastructure, and technical progress in manufacturing over long run by 10–20% per annum. All th...
In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsec... more In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsector within the agricultural sector of a country. Entry requires a cash crop price that is substantially above the price of the food crop already being produced within the country. Entry of CF could cause 'vanishing' of the food-crop sector. We employ a variant of 3×3 mixed Specific Factor-Heckscher Ohlin general equilibrium model of production and trade where introduction of a new policy may lead to the emergence of a new cash-crop sector resulting in finite changes where we show the possibilities of sectoral diversification with combinations of contract farming vis-à-vis traditional agriculture under some plausible conditions. Such ramifications could (a) increase GDP; (b) give rise to adverse distributional consequences for labour, and land-owner; (c) reduce domestic production of food and increase food import and hence, (d) aggravate food insecurity. Thus, CF might imply a tra...
Drawing on stylized evidences on emerging economies and Sub-Saharan Africa, we ask: why some coun... more Drawing on stylized evidences on emerging economies and Sub-Saharan Africa, we ask: why some countries lag while some are fast in catching-up? By considering a tripartite grouping-advanced North, dynamic emerging Southern engines of growth, and laggards in Sub-Saharan Africa-this paper (i) uses the metafrontier approach for measuring the technology gap between the African nations and emerging economies, and (ii) tests the relationship between the technology gap, educational quality, trade openness, and foreign direct investment. We show that knowledge capabilities backed by human development, access to new technology, capacity to absorb new technologies are essential for development success. On the other hand, Africa's poor infrastructure, relatively poor business environment, and lack of human development are the most significant barriers to technology catch-up. Results show that globalization is not merely the means of opening new markets but for achieving higher productivity through technology transfers. Moreover, improved macroeconomic policies and sustained reform, as well as human capital, stronger governance and better investment climate are needed for accelerating the technology catch-up, and to put the African economies on a path to sustainable growth. "While the global economy is probably a necessary condition, it certainly is not sufficient. The high variability in growth rates across developing countries is inconsistent with the view that all you need is access to global markets and knowledge. Clearly there is something else-in fact, quite a lot-that is additionally required. Which leads us to ask: what are the internal dynamics, conditions, and policies that lead to sustained high growth? What do countries do and not do to sustain growth?"
In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, se... more In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of the dynamic GTAP model. 0.63% Hicks-Neutral technical progress in forestry sector (logging) in source regions has differential impacts on productivity of the logging-user sectors. This is ascribed to the differential rates of induced technology transmission via traded intermediates. Destination regions' ability to utilize new technology depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS). Together with trade flows, these two factors determine the recipient's success in assimilating foreign technology. Sectors intensive in logging like wood products, paper products, publishing register higher productivity growth. Differences in productivity improvements depend on the differentials in the magnitude of technology capture. 1. Introduction In the recent past, the advent of biotechnological innovations and its potential impact on s...
Timing' is everything. However, pivotal role of time in economic analysis can no way be exaggerat... more Timing' is everything. However, pivotal role of time in economic analysis can no way be exaggerated. According to Hicks (1979): ''The economic system has now to be conceived of, not merely as a network of independent markets, but as a process in time (p. 116).'' Given this central role of time, it has not been given due importance except in some areas like household decision-making (Becker 1965) or, overlapping generation models, etc. International trade is a less-traversed area as popular trade models do not usually consider 'time-dimension' even when globalization involves global integration of nations across separate time-zones. We can no way set aside the tremendous spurt in economic activities, trade and transactions, in the online platform or virtual world, which should radically transform the way we should think about international trade. In fact, with Covid-19 pandemic and regulations for social-distancing virtual activities-replacing physical transactions-have become backbone of major transactions. This is enabled by Information and communication Technologies (ICT) or 'digitalization' induced virtual trade (VT, henceforth). We, the Homo Economicus, are located apart (distant or, in close vicinity) in different geographical regions or time zones (TZ, hereafter). Since the days of hunter-gatherers, people organized production by transporting and trading commodities spatially. Different waves of globalization and technological breakthrough (steam engine, locomotives, or electricity) have shaped commerce between nations (Baldwin 2016). With global integration and emergence of third industrial revolution (via ICT) and concurrently, the fourth one (artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, or so), taking advantage of these could be gainful if the TZdifferences are optimally utilized to bridge the geographical barriers. Marjit, Mandal, and Nakanishi (M-M-N, hereafter) dealt with these issues in this impressive book in a cogent analytical framework. They employ Neo-Classical micro foundation of modern trade theory and extend it by making a clear point of & Gouranga G.
Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-es... more Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-established in the economics literature. The issues of creation of technology, its diffusion and actual adoption have been discussed on both theoretical and empirical planes. Effective assimilation of advanced technologies hinges on the 'Absorptive Capacity' and the 'Structural Congruence' between source vis-à-vis the destinations; role of public policies for actual implementation of these new ideas is extremely crucial. This paper offers a synoptic overview of current research and sketch a possible extension of the analytical framework on an operationally feasible plane within the Computable General Equilibrium framework. The survey highlights that analysis of the issue of technology-induced growth in a knowledge-based society must further the analysis by highlighting the role of factors for capturing the benefits. It has been identified that the factors propelling the acq...
The rush for land acquisition-primarily driven by food shortages, food price volatility, and the ... more The rush for land acquisition-primarily driven by food shortages, food price volatility, and the run for agrofuel-has drawn considerable attention, as documented by reports published in late 2009, 2010, and 2011. Terminological differences aside, it is-quite distinct from material or service outsourcing-a kind of off-shoring farm production across borders to relatively land-abundant nations and exporting it back to mitigate the adverse effects of food insecurity. While the academic literature is not capacious, this paper, the first of its kind, attempts to study its (potential) effects in the context of a small open economy subject to exogenous shocks. The presence of a sector subject to land acquisition is central to the analysis. In particular, the paper notes that: (i) an increase in world prices of agro-business sector causes skewed effects (shrinkage) in manufacturing or innovative sectors, and subsistence sector (via forward and backward linkages), causing price change vulnerability; (ii) with attractive premiums offered by host country, land acquisition will undermine the avowed objective of mitigating food …/.
Forest Policy and Economics is an international journal dealing with policy issues, including eco... more Forest Policy and Economics is an international journal dealing with policy issues, including economics and planning, relating the forest and forest industries sector. Its aims are both to publish original papers of a high scientific standard and to enhance communications amongst researchers, legislators, decision-makers and other professionals concerned with fc mutating and implementing policies for the sector.
Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the de... more Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the demand for and supply of forest products in the U.S. Meanwhile, more innovations are introduced into the U.S. forestry sectors to meet the growing demands for forest products. Since the U.S. is the largest producer and consumer of forest products in the world, these changes are expected to have significant implications for forestry sectors across the world. This study aims at (1) estimating the impacts of forest products trade liberalization on the U.S. forestry sectors; (2) examining the effect of technological progress in the U.S. forestry production relative to the rest of the world. A multi-regional multisectoral applied global general equilibrium model is employed to achieve the goal. Results of the study have implications for better production and marketing decisions as well as policy prescriptions related to sustainable forest management in the U.S.
The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project'... more The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project's [GTAP] database provides us with the splits of total labor payments into skilled and unskilled labor-presupposing substitution possibilities between them. Given the skilled labor payment shares of the GTAP database, we offer an ex post rationalization within a production-theoretic framework. This relies on inter-regional covariation in the GTAP shares and in measures of educational attainment. Adoption of a suitable nesting of skilled-unskilled labor in GTAP's production function enables us to derive a 'reasonable' value for the (implicit) substitution elasticity between skilled-unskilled labors.
Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp... more Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp fall in oil prices in 2015. However, such dependence creates development challenges for her. Simulated impact of prioritized economic reform policies—using a computable general equilibrium model (AZEORANI)—shows that, under the business-as-usual case with oil prices at 2011 level, it is projected to grow by 2.0% a year to 2030. However, consistent policy reforms enable enhanced growth by another 1.1 percentage points annually due to productivity boost and increased exports from non-oil sectors, viz., tourism and agriculture. In particular, following strategic roadmap, we consider baseline and policy shocks—10% improvement in productive efficiency, investment boost by 5% in non-mineral sector, and enhanced agricultural efficiency by 5%, and boost in tourism and transport by 10% via logistics-infrastructure, and technical progress in manufacturing over long run by 10–20% per annum. All th...
In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsec... more In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsector within the agricultural sector of a country. Entry requires a cash crop price that is substantially above the price of the food crop already being produced within the country. Entry of CF could cause 'vanishing' of the food-crop sector. We employ a variant of 3×3 mixed Specific Factor-Heckscher Ohlin general equilibrium model of production and trade where introduction of a new policy may lead to the emergence of a new cash-crop sector resulting in finite changes where we show the possibilities of sectoral diversification with combinations of contract farming vis-à-vis traditional agriculture under some plausible conditions. Such ramifications could (a) increase GDP; (b) give rise to adverse distributional consequences for labour, and land-owner; (c) reduce domestic production of food and increase food import and hence, (d) aggravate food insecurity. Thus, CF might imply a tra...
Drawing on stylized evidences on emerging economies and Sub-Saharan Africa, we ask: why some coun... more Drawing on stylized evidences on emerging economies and Sub-Saharan Africa, we ask: why some countries lag while some are fast in catching-up? By considering a tripartite grouping-advanced North, dynamic emerging Southern engines of growth, and laggards in Sub-Saharan Africa-this paper (i) uses the metafrontier approach for measuring the technology gap between the African nations and emerging economies, and (ii) tests the relationship between the technology gap, educational quality, trade openness, and foreign direct investment. We show that knowledge capabilities backed by human development, access to new technology, capacity to absorb new technologies are essential for development success. On the other hand, Africa's poor infrastructure, relatively poor business environment, and lack of human development are the most significant barriers to technology catch-up. Results show that globalization is not merely the means of opening new markets but for achieving higher productivity through technology transfers. Moreover, improved macroeconomic policies and sustained reform, as well as human capital, stronger governance and better investment climate are needed for accelerating the technology catch-up, and to put the African economies on a path to sustainable growth. "While the global economy is probably a necessary condition, it certainly is not sufficient. The high variability in growth rates across developing countries is inconsistent with the view that all you need is access to global markets and knowledge. Clearly there is something else-in fact, quite a lot-that is additionally required. Which leads us to ask: what are the internal dynamics, conditions, and policies that lead to sustained high growth? What do countries do and not do to sustain growth?"
In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, se... more In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of the dynamic GTAP model. 0.63% Hicks-Neutral technical progress in forestry sector (logging) in source regions has differential impacts on productivity of the logging-user sectors. This is ascribed to the differential rates of induced technology transmission via traded intermediates. Destination regions' ability to utilize new technology depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS). Together with trade flows, these two factors determine the recipient's success in assimilating foreign technology. Sectors intensive in logging like wood products, paper products, publishing register higher productivity growth. Differences in productivity improvements depend on the differentials in the magnitude of technology capture. 1. Introduction In the recent past, the advent of biotechnological innovations and its potential impact on s...
Timing' is everything. However, pivotal role of time in economic analysis can no way be exaggerat... more Timing' is everything. However, pivotal role of time in economic analysis can no way be exaggerated. According to Hicks (1979): ''The economic system has now to be conceived of, not merely as a network of independent markets, but as a process in time (p. 116).'' Given this central role of time, it has not been given due importance except in some areas like household decision-making (Becker 1965) or, overlapping generation models, etc. International trade is a less-traversed area as popular trade models do not usually consider 'time-dimension' even when globalization involves global integration of nations across separate time-zones. We can no way set aside the tremendous spurt in economic activities, trade and transactions, in the online platform or virtual world, which should radically transform the way we should think about international trade. In fact, with Covid-19 pandemic and regulations for social-distancing virtual activities-replacing physical transactions-have become backbone of major transactions. This is enabled by Information and communication Technologies (ICT) or 'digitalization' induced virtual trade (VT, henceforth). We, the Homo Economicus, are located apart (distant or, in close vicinity) in different geographical regions or time zones (TZ, hereafter). Since the days of hunter-gatherers, people organized production by transporting and trading commodities spatially. Different waves of globalization and technological breakthrough (steam engine, locomotives, or electricity) have shaped commerce between nations (Baldwin 2016). With global integration and emergence of third industrial revolution (via ICT) and concurrently, the fourth one (artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, or so), taking advantage of these could be gainful if the TZdifferences are optimally utilized to bridge the geographical barriers. Marjit, Mandal, and Nakanishi (M-M-N, hereafter) dealt with these issues in this impressive book in a cogent analytical framework. They employ Neo-Classical micro foundation of modern trade theory and extend it by making a clear point of & Gouranga G.
Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-es... more Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-established in the economics literature. The issues of creation of technology, its diffusion and actual adoption have been discussed on both theoretical and empirical planes. Effective assimilation of advanced technologies hinges on the 'Absorptive Capacity' and the 'Structural Congruence' between source vis-à-vis the destinations; role of public policies for actual implementation of these new ideas is extremely crucial. This paper offers a synoptic overview of current research and sketch a possible extension of the analytical framework on an operationally feasible plane within the Computable General Equilibrium framework. The survey highlights that analysis of the issue of technology-induced growth in a knowledge-based society must further the analysis by highlighting the role of factors for capturing the benefits. It has been identified that the factors propelling the acq...
The rush for land acquisition-primarily driven by food shortages, food price volatility, and the ... more The rush for land acquisition-primarily driven by food shortages, food price volatility, and the run for agrofuel-has drawn considerable attention, as documented by reports published in late 2009, 2010, and 2011. Terminological differences aside, it is-quite distinct from material or service outsourcing-a kind of off-shoring farm production across borders to relatively land-abundant nations and exporting it back to mitigate the adverse effects of food insecurity. While the academic literature is not capacious, this paper, the first of its kind, attempts to study its (potential) effects in the context of a small open economy subject to exogenous shocks. The presence of a sector subject to land acquisition is central to the analysis. In particular, the paper notes that: (i) an increase in world prices of agro-business sector causes skewed effects (shrinkage) in manufacturing or innovative sectors, and subsistence sector (via forward and backward linkages), causing price change vulnerability; (ii) with attractive premiums offered by host country, land acquisition will undermine the avowed objective of mitigating food …/.
Forest Policy and Economics is an international journal dealing with policy issues, including eco... more Forest Policy and Economics is an international journal dealing with policy issues, including economics and planning, relating the forest and forest industries sector. Its aims are both to publish original papers of a high scientific standard and to enhance communications amongst researchers, legislators, decision-makers and other professionals concerned with fc mutating and implementing policies for the sector.
Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the de... more Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the demand for and supply of forest products in the U.S. Meanwhile, more innovations are introduced into the U.S. forestry sectors to meet the growing demands for forest products. Since the U.S. is the largest producer and consumer of forest products in the world, these changes are expected to have significant implications for forestry sectors across the world. This study aims at (1) estimating the impacts of forest products trade liberalization on the U.S. forestry sectors; (2) examining the effect of technological progress in the U.S. forestry production relative to the rest of the world. A multi-regional multisectoral applied global general equilibrium model is employed to achieve the goal. Results of the study have implications for better production and marketing decisions as well as policy prescriptions related to sustainable forest management in the U.S.
The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project'... more The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project's [GTAP] database provides us with the splits of total labor payments into skilled and unskilled labor-presupposing substitution possibilities between them. Given the skilled labor payment shares of the GTAP database, we offer an ex post rationalization within a production-theoretic framework. This relies on inter-regional covariation in the GTAP shares and in measures of educational attainment. Adoption of a suitable nesting of skilled-unskilled labor in GTAP's production function enables us to derive a 'reasonable' value for the (implicit) substitution elasticity between skilled-unskilled labors.
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Papers by Gouranga Das