Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2026

Sleeping Newcomb

Résumé

I study games with self-locating uncertainty in which an agent at a single information set is uncertain of his position evenwithina given information set of a given play of the game. In such games, there is an analogy to be drawn with Newcomb’s problem: in bothsettings, locally rational (thirder) reasoning and globally optimal (planning) reasoning can prescribe different strategies. I call this aNewcomb tension, and present a representation theorem: a Bayesian with commitment power and an uncommitted agent holding incorrect ‘one-boxer’ beliefs are behaviourally equivalent. In the single-agent case, randomisation always resolves the tension but in multi-agent games, in which planning and interim social weights diverge under some conditions, a multi-agent Newcomb tension can survive this randomisation resolution with an asymmetric awakening structure across agents. I consider the implications of this for the duplicating Sleeping Beauty problem, and a duplicating variant of the absent-minded driver.

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Dates et versions

hal-05594456 , version 1 (17-04-2026)
hal-05594456 , version 2 (16-07-2026)

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  • HAL Id : hal-05594456 , version 2

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John W. E. Cremin. Sleeping Newcomb. 2026. ⟨hal-05594456v2⟩
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