Peer-Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters by Fd Guliyev
Nationalities Papers, 2024
Drawing on theories of comparative regionalism, this article examines the construction of regiona... more Drawing on theories of comparative regionalism, this article examines the construction of regionalist frames in Azerbaijan covering the period from 1993 to mid-2023. By examining more than 60 text passages from presidential speeches and statements, the study identifies two framings of regionalism that have dominated presidential discourses in Azerbaijan: the discourse of Turkic solidarity or unity (in the political-security domain) and the narrative of an East-West corridor or the revival of the Silk Road for transport of cargo and hydrocarbon resources (in the economic domain). By constructing these discursive frames, Azerbaijani state leaders crafted an alternative regional order reconstituting the geographic category of "South Caucasus" into a new, spatially broader area. In this formulation, "South Caucasus" is viewed as a central pillar of the Silk Road, and Azerbaijan as one of its focal points or nodes. While the study underscores a key role that actors and ideas play in the formation of regions and regional institutions, it also highlights how social construction of regional identities is embedded in and shaped by historical experiences and country-specific politicaleconomic conditions such as historical memories, experiences of war, collective identities and cultural affinities, geographic location, domestic political economic structures, and international linkages.
Global Social Policy, 2023
Journal of Eurasian Studies, 2024
The clean energy transition has entered the policy discourse and government agenda of the Caspian... more The clean energy transition has entered the policy discourse and government agenda of the Caspian oil-producing countries of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Both countries have set a target to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in total energy production by 2030. This article presents a comparative analysis of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in their paths to a low-carbon sources of energy covering the status of RES, renewable energy targets, and the role of government policy schemes in promoting renewable energy (RE) deployment. The study shows that despite some commonalities in the initial conditions (such as Soviet-era legacies of fossil-fuel-based infrastructure, a high degree of dependence on oil and gas rents, and dominance of state-owned enterprises), Kazakhstan adopted a more targeted regulatory framework and more elaborate policy schemes with regards to renewables than Azerbaijan did. In the latter case, the introduction of relevant renewable legislation has been significantly delayed or implemented only partially. As a result, Kazakhstan has performed relatively more successfully on advancing non-conventional renewable energy targets: non-hydro renewable sources accounted for 3% of total electricity generated in Kazakhstan and made up only 1% of electricity produced in Azerbaijan (as of 2020). This article highlights the following factors that stand out in explaining these variable outcomes: the degree of economic liberalization, quality of governance of the oil and gas sector, regulatory frameworks, and policy support schemes.
Public Responses to Fossil Fuel Export, 2022
European Security, 2021
Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediatio... more Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediation efforts in Eurasian secessionist conflicts, its role has been neglected by mainstream international relations (IR) and conflict mediation literature. To fill in this gap, this article examines OSCE mediation strategies in two major secessionist conflicts: the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Drawing on Zartman’s conceptual framework, this study posits that OSCE mediation strategies were constrained given its weak organisational capacity, lack of legal empowerment and adverse geopolitical environment. Due to these structural limitations, the OSCE can be said to have been more effective in containing conflict than contributing to conflict resolution. This article aims to contribute to conflict mediation research by highlighting the importance of context for understanding the role of international organisations (IOs) as mediators.
Post-Communist Economies, 2021
While there is a growing body of research on the role of international organisations (IOs) in reg... more While there is a growing body of research on the role of international organisations (IOs) in regional security governance, relatively little attention has been paid to IO responses to the secessionist conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), in Abkhazia/South Ossetia in Georgia as well as in Crimea/Eastern Ukraine. This article explores the differences between NATO’s and the CSTO’s responses to the three conflicts. Our findings demonstrate that NATO neglected the conflict in NK which stands in sharp contrast to its active responses to the outbreak of war in Georgia (2008) and Crimea/Eastern Ukraine (2014). The CSTO, however, has largely avoided any engagement in all three cases. Three factors were of crucial importance to explain this variation: the level of regional security institutionalisation, both IOs’ geostrategic threat perceptions as well as both IOs’ mutual perception, hence, their IO-IO (non)relationship.
Energy Policy, 2020
The global energy system is in transition to a new energy order characterized by the emergence of... more The global energy system is in transition to a new energy order characterized by the emergence of the United States as a net oil exporter, the shale revolution and the gradual shift towards low-carbon sources and renewables. The shale boom in the US was a game changer, as was the election of Donald Trump as US president. Trump pushed an ambitious "America first" agenda aimed at transforming the US into a global energy superpower. The purpose of this article is two-fold: first, it outlines the key pillars of the emerging global energy order. Second, it underscores the role of contingent events, a factor neglected by some previous studies because of their reliance on what A.O.Hirschman (1970) termed "paradigmatic thinking". The recent transition in the international energy order is an outcome of two paramount, yet largely unanticipated events: the shale revolution in the US and Trump's neomercantilist and unilateralist economic policies. While contingencies are an inherent feature of social reality, the scenario approach can be a useful heuristic for dealing with uncertainties. The article concludes by discussing the implications of these developments for global energy governance.
Current History, 2019
A recent oil boom enriched a small circle of oligarchs in Baku. Little has been invested in the h... more A recent oil boom enriched a small circle of oligarchs in Baku. Little has been invested in the human capital that will be needed to sustain the economy when the wells run dry.
The article discusses the consequences of Azerbaijan's missed opportunities to efficiently manage revenue and the economy during its oil boom. Topics discussed include the country's focus on non-tradeable construction and services industries at the expense of agricultural and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, the failure to invest on human capital and the government's crackdown on opposition parties. Also discussed are the distorted labor market and the personalization of power.
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2019
Why does ideology often fail to take hold in post-Soviet party politics where parties tend to be ... more Why does ideology often fail to take hold in post-Soviet party politics where parties tend to be personalistic, patronage-based and clientelistic rather than programmatic? Moving beyond conventional theories of social cleavage and patrimonial legacies, this paper offers an alternative explanation focusing on the structure of a country’s discursive space. Analysis of Azerbaijani political party manifestos shows that all political players – the ruling and pro-government parties and the opposition groups alike – actively prevent the emergence of ideological competition and debate. All parties are wedded to the same underlying ideology of nationalism and a shallow or nominal commitment to democracy. This situation perpetuates the status quo and breeds political apathy among younger people.
The Affordances of Social Media for Opposition in Azerbaijan
The concepts of personal rule, neopatrimonialism, sultanism and related conceptual labels have be... more The concepts of personal rule, neopatrimonialism, sultanism and related conceptual labels have been widely used in political research, yet remain inadequately conceptualized. To make it a useful analytical category for comparative research, this article clarifies the concept of personal rule, derives its minimal definition and shows its proper genus, state authority structure. A new typological framework is advanced as an improved conceptual scheme that is able to capture variation on two salient dimensions of contemporary regimes in the developing and postcommunist worlds, the extent of political competition and the type of state authority structure.
European energy policy faces challenges. Among these are gas supply security and competitiveness ... more European energy policy faces challenges. Among these are gas supply security and competitiveness of the gas market. Gas supply security is at risk from presently high and increasing European import dependence on a limited number of large foreign suppliers, notably Sonatrach, Statoil and Gazprom. This paper studies the possibly conflicting goals between supply security and competition. We examine the implication of major foreign suppliers' position on the European gas market and the likeliness of a gas exporting cartel. Following this, we study a set of possible European responses to import dependence on a small number of major foreign suppliers. Our main conclusion is that supply security should not be a justification for impediments of competition on the European gas market. First, although the import dependence on suppliers such as Gazprom is real, the likeliness of detrimental effects is not that high. Second, effective countervailing power would require big importing firms and might, therefore, come at the expense of competitiveness on the European home market. Countervailing power is a high-risk strategy and the chances of detrimental effects, offsetting any benefits, are high. Third, even with countervailing power created by big players, European bargaining power is actually likely to be small relative to the major foreign suppliers, such as Gazprom. Fourth, diversification is a promising strategy and could potentially help achieve different policy goals. We argue that the combination of LNG and pipelines improves supply security and is likely to improve competition, and that there is a role for the governments and the European Commission in promoting these strategic targets.
The article delineates the major national, regional and international level stakeholders in the w... more The article delineates the major national, regional and international level stakeholders in the westward Trans-Caspian transportation of Kazakh oil, supplemented with a discussion of the prospect of expansion of the Trans-Caspian/South Caucasus corridor in light of the presumably harmful effect of the war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008. It demonstrates that while foreign companies have been backed by their respective governments, national firms have also enjoyed considerable state support, partly due to their close links to the interests of state elites in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. It appears that most companies along the shipping line either belong to the governments of Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan, directly or indirectly (through subsidiaries), or enjoy favoritism and a near monopoly in their markets (crony capitalism). Some of these firms are privately owned but registered in offshore tax havens, while some others have rather obscure ownership structures and corporate profiles. It suggests that cronyism and state capture comprise that politico-economic environment within which the future of Caspian transport systems will have to be decided.
Policy Work by Fd Guliyev
Covid-19 Social Policy Response Series No.8, 2021
Azerbaijan’s social assistance and income support schemes adopted during the Covid-19 pandemic ne... more Azerbaijan’s social assistance and income support schemes adopted during the Covid-19 pandemic need to be seen within the context of the country’s existing social protection system and safety nets. While the existing system is operational and has the technical capacity to respond and deliver social policies, it has had two key shortcomings: (1) low benefit rates and (2) issues in coverage, notably the exclusion of informal employees and migrant workers. Left unaddressed ex ante, they caught the system off-guard ex post when the coronavirus pandemic broke out. As a result, although Covid-related social assistance measures (especially cash transfers) were implemented without delay and provided some immediate relief for vulnerable and affected social groups, they fell short of covering sizable sections of the population, namely informal workers and Azerbaijanis working in Russia. It is also doubtful that such assistance can improve future wellbeing of vulnerable groups, whose living standards are likely to worsen during and after the economic fallout from the pandemic.
PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 666, 2020
PONARS Policy Memo 647, 2020
Does President Vladimir Putin's move to zero-out his count to presidential term limits replicate ... more Does President Vladimir Putin's move to zero-out his count to presidential term limits replicate the "Ilham Aliyev" scenario of Azerbaijan in 2008-09 as suggested in a recent PONARS Eurasia policy memo? If so, what are the deeper explanations? In both Baku and Moscow, circumvention of term limits is seen as a way to deal with a looming succession crisis. More importantly, in initiating their moves, both incumbents were operating under severe economic uncertainty and exogenous oil shocks that were threatening to transform into protracted economic problems. Such crises can quickly escalate, as illustrated by oildependent and mismanaged Venezuela. Both the Azeri and Russian leaders were concerned to act swiftly in order to assure the elites of their resolve to stay in power. Delaying decisions on succession runs the risk of affording potential rivals time to coordinate, pool resources, and organize coalitions in support of alternative candidates.
PONARS Policy Memo 519, March 2018
In oil-rich Azerbaijan, contrary to many other countries, education does not seem to influence so... more In oil-rich Azerbaijan, contrary to many other countries, education does not seem to influence social capital, ceteris paribus. Here, citizens with higher levels of education are not more likely than their less educated peers to trust others or engage in community activities such as volunteering or donating to a charity. The dramatic decline in educational quality over the past two decades has contributed a great deal to civic apathy in Azerbaijan. The public education system in Azerbaijan falls short of imbuing young people with civic virtues and transforming them into "good" citizens. Education thus deserves considerable attention (and funds). Delaying reform in this policy area endangers the future of Azerbaijan as a secular nation with a capable workforce and healthy economy.
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Peer-Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters by Fd Guliyev
The article discusses the consequences of Azerbaijan's missed opportunities to efficiently manage revenue and the economy during its oil boom. Topics discussed include the country's focus on non-tradeable construction and services industries at the expense of agricultural and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, the failure to invest on human capital and the government's crackdown on opposition parties. Also discussed are the distorted labor market and the personalization of power.
Policy Work by Fd Guliyev
The article discusses the consequences of Azerbaijan's missed opportunities to efficiently manage revenue and the economy during its oil boom. Topics discussed include the country's focus on non-tradeable construction and services industries at the expense of agricultural and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, the failure to invest on human capital and the government's crackdown on opposition parties. Also discussed are the distorted labor market and the personalization of power.