Developing a weapon while in production does increase program risk and is sometimes cited as a re... more Developing a weapon while in production does increase program risk and is sometimes cited as a reason for cost growth. This article explores the relationship between concurrency and cost growth in large weapon programs. The authors defined concurrency as the proportion of research, development, and test and evaluation appropriations authorized during the same years in which procurement appropriations are authorized. Their results strongly indicate that concurrency does not necessarily predict cost growth. Using classical regression techniques, the authors found no evidence supporting this relationship. To investigate other relationships between cost growth and concurrency, they also used a smooth curving technique. These experiments showed that, although the relationship is not strong, low levels of concurrency are more problematic than higher levels. Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to av...
The focus of this paper is on the analysis of the cyber security resilience of digital infrastruc... more The focus of this paper is on the analysis of the cyber security resilience of digital infrastructures deployed by power grids, internationally recognized as a priority since several recent cyber attacks targeted energy systems and in particular the power service. In response to the regulatory framework, this paper presents an analysis approach based on the Bayesian Networks formalism and on real world threat scenarios. Our approach enables analyses oriented to planning of security measures and monitoring, and to forecasting of adversarial behaviours.
Abstract : Concurrency in a weapons program -- the actual production of the weapons system while ... more Abstract : Concurrency in a weapons program -- the actual production of the weapons system while some portions of the design are still being completed -- has been a topic of debate for decades. While there have been some investigations into certain programs that point to concurrency as a possible culprit for some cost growth, there have been few systematic studies that measure how closely related the two are. A 1988 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study is one of the few studies that actually did try to measure this relationship. Examining 14 major programs that were deployed in the 1970s, the CBO found that the statistical relationship between concurrency and cost growth was very low. The relationship was even lower for schedule slippage. Another study conducted by the RAND Corporation in 2006, using the same definition as the CBO study, also identified the possibility that concurrency does not have an impact on cost growth. We examined the relationship between cost growth and concurrency again in response to a request by assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition. In contrast to the CBO and RAND studies, we defined concurrency as the percentage share of RDT&E money that was being spent while procurement dollars were also being spent. Our results, based on examining 28 programs across all Services, are very similar to those of the CBO and RAND studies with one surprising exception: While from a purely statistical point of view we found that the relationship between both planned and actual concurrency and cost growth was very weak, in both cases, there seems to be a "sweet spot" of about 30 percent concurrency. That is, programs that plan on spending 30 percent of RDT&E funds while concurrently spending procurement funds actually experience the lowest average cost growth. In sum, our study suggests that programs should plan for some moderate level of concurrency (somewhere around 30 percent) and then stick to the plan.
Abstract : Typically, defense programs experience some level of concurrency; that is, production ... more Abstract : Typically, defense programs experience some level of concurrency; that is, production of the weapon system happens while some portions of the design are still being completed. Many people within the defense acquisition community argue that high levels of design/ build concurrency ultimately lead to cost growth, as it implicitly creates a greater level of risk. For example, a memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition (ASN-RDA) identified the high degree of concurrency in the Littoral Combat Ship as being a large contributor to the program's overall cost growth (DoD, 2006). In a zero-risk world, the requirements, concept of operations, and substantial prior development would be completed before the release of the Request for Proposal (RFP) for the design phase. In addition, 100 percent of the design would be complete before the release of the production RFP; and all the initial material/components would always be procured and available before production started. Moreover, requirements would not change once design started, design would not change once production started, and production would flow smoothly without delays caused by late software or hardware. Thus, in a zero-risk world we would say programs have zero overlap, or concurrency, and virtually no production risk.
Developing a weapon while in production does increase program risk and is sometimes cited as a re... more Developing a weapon while in production does increase program risk and is sometimes cited as a reason for cost growth. This article explores the relationship between concurrency and cost growth in large weapon programs. The authors defined concurrency as the proportion of research, development, and test and evaluation appropriations authorized during the same years in which procurement appropriations are authorized. Their results strongly indicate that concurrency does not necessarily predict cost growth. Using classical regression techniques, the authors found no evidence supporting this relationship. To investigate other relationships between cost growth and concurrency, they also used a smooth curving technique. These experiments showed that, although the relationship is not strong, low levels of concurrency are more problematic than higher levels. Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to av...
The focus of this paper is on the analysis of the cyber security resilience of digital infrastruc... more The focus of this paper is on the analysis of the cyber security resilience of digital infrastructures deployed by power grids, internationally recognized as a priority since several recent cyber attacks targeted energy systems and in particular the power service. In response to the regulatory framework, this paper presents an analysis approach based on the Bayesian Networks formalism and on real world threat scenarios. Our approach enables analyses oriented to planning of security measures and monitoring, and to forecasting of adversarial behaviours.
Abstract : Concurrency in a weapons program -- the actual production of the weapons system while ... more Abstract : Concurrency in a weapons program -- the actual production of the weapons system while some portions of the design are still being completed -- has been a topic of debate for decades. While there have been some investigations into certain programs that point to concurrency as a possible culprit for some cost growth, there have been few systematic studies that measure how closely related the two are. A 1988 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study is one of the few studies that actually did try to measure this relationship. Examining 14 major programs that were deployed in the 1970s, the CBO found that the statistical relationship between concurrency and cost growth was very low. The relationship was even lower for schedule slippage. Another study conducted by the RAND Corporation in 2006, using the same definition as the CBO study, also identified the possibility that concurrency does not have an impact on cost growth. We examined the relationship between cost growth and concurrency again in response to a request by assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition. In contrast to the CBO and RAND studies, we defined concurrency as the percentage share of RDT&E money that was being spent while procurement dollars were also being spent. Our results, based on examining 28 programs across all Services, are very similar to those of the CBO and RAND studies with one surprising exception: While from a purely statistical point of view we found that the relationship between both planned and actual concurrency and cost growth was very weak, in both cases, there seems to be a "sweet spot" of about 30 percent concurrency. That is, programs that plan on spending 30 percent of RDT&E funds while concurrently spending procurement funds actually experience the lowest average cost growth. In sum, our study suggests that programs should plan for some moderate level of concurrency (somewhere around 30 percent) and then stick to the plan.
Abstract : Typically, defense programs experience some level of concurrency; that is, production ... more Abstract : Typically, defense programs experience some level of concurrency; that is, production of the weapon system happens while some portions of the design are still being completed. Many people within the defense acquisition community argue that high levels of design/ build concurrency ultimately lead to cost growth, as it implicitly creates a greater level of risk. For example, a memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition (ASN-RDA) identified the high degree of concurrency in the Littoral Combat Ship as being a large contributor to the program's overall cost growth (DoD, 2006). In a zero-risk world, the requirements, concept of operations, and substantial prior development would be completed before the release of the Request for Proposal (RFP) for the design phase. In addition, 100 percent of the design would be complete before the release of the production RFP; and all the initial material/components would always be procured and available before production started. Moreover, requirements would not change once design started, design would not change once production started, and production would flow smoothly without delays caused by late software or hardware. Thus, in a zero-risk world we would say programs have zero overlap, or concurrency, and virtually no production risk.
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