Conference Presentations by Dejen K E T E M A Mamo
The 2014/2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the leading ever recorded, and identifying the int... more The 2014/2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the leading ever recorded, and identifying the integrated and applicable dynamics of public health intervention is a key concern, both for current and future epidemics. Moreover, as transmissibility and mortality are supposed to increase as symptoms progress, intervention approaches may depend on individual’s stage of infection. To inspect these issues, we develop SEIIsR mathematical model that study the control mechanism and spread of Ebola epidemic by reducing Is compartment. This work is intensively analysis the sensitive model parameters, disease free equilibrium point locally and globally asymptotically stability, existence of endemic equilibrium point, simulation study and data fitting. A variety of intervention measures exist to prevent and control epidemic diseases. In this study Isolation and contact tracing are proposed. Isolation is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. The analysis showed that if the most essential epidemiological parameter so called basic reproductive number R0 < 1 then disease free equilibrium point is stable whereas endemic equilibrium point is exist and stable if R0 > 1. The result indicated that early case detection followed by strict isolation could control Ebola outbreak. Tracing close contacts of cases and contacts of exposed health care workers additionally reduces the number of new infected cases. The study emphasizes the significance of early identification and isolation of Ebola cases to reduce the number of people getting infected. According to the numerical solution early identification or Isolated from Exposed is more significance than infected compartment. The best investigation of this study acknowledged that, it is possible to control the outbreak with short period of time by using effective contact tracing and isolation even if the value of R0 > 1. In SEIIsR model the best fit of cumulative infected case in West Africa is computed to follow simulated curve with R0 = 1.3. Further, the study supports the cumulative death cases due to Ebola epidemic is 63% of the infected individuals. Without intervention Ebola epidemic spread is going on where R0 > 1 whereas it is die out where R0 < 1. If we isolate more than 30% of exposed and infected individuals it is possible to reduce and vanish the epidemics spread.
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Conference Presentations by Dejen K E T E M A Mamo