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Validate motel check against published empirical trace metrics#144

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andrewh merged 1 commit into
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claude/dreamy-sagan-mlqh92
Jun 11, 2026
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Validate motel check against published empirical trace metrics#144
andrewh merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/dreamy-sagan-mlqh92

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@andrewh

@andrewh andrewh commented Jun 10, 2026

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Closes #94.

Validates the motel check analysis engine against independent ground truth from the Alibaba and Meta trace studies by constructing topologies that exhibit the published structural characteristics and verifying check reproduces them.

What's included

Example topologies (docs/examples/):

  • alibaba-call-graph.yaml — models Luo et al. (IEEE TPDS 2022): call graph depth 6 (published range 2–6 for top services), max children set size 10 (published 1–10), repeated call rate 16.7% (published 16.2%), memcached-dominated leaf tier. Static results: depth 6, fan-out 10, spans 24.
  • meta-wide-fanout.yaml — models Huye et al. (USENIX ATC 2023) and Du et al. (ICS 2025): wide, shallow feed-style workflow with 50 children at the aggregation tier (published: up to 50 at Meta). Static results: depth 3, fan-out 50, spans 54. Fully deterministic, so it doubles as an exactness check — sampled distributions must be constant and equal to the static bounds.

Test suite (pkg/synth/empirical_test.go):

  • Asserts static MaxDepth/MaxFanOut/MaxSpans match hand-computed expectations, including the worst-case path and refs.
  • Runs Monte Carlo sampling (1000 traces, fixed seed) and asserts p50/p99 distributions stay within the published ranges and never exceed the static bounds.
  • Verifies the modelled repeated call rate is within 0.01 of the published 16.2%, computed from the topology definition since check does not report repeated calls as a metric.

Documentation (docs/research/empirical-validation.md):

  • Methodology, per-paper comparison tables, captured motel check output, and reproduction steps.
  • Discrepancies and limitations section: overlap rate (77.1%) is a cross-trace population metric check cannot report; repeated call rate is validated against the topology rather than check output; topology dynamics and population-level depth distribution shape are out of scope for a single-topology analysis (the latter is covered by the existing genRealisticConfig property tests).

Results

No disagreements between check and the modelled values were found — all static bounds match exactly, and sampled distributions behave as the model predicts.

make test and make lint pass.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01XUMUcHZyxiTbC8VYGcGHyu


Generated by Claude Code

Add topologies modelling the structural characteristics reported by the
Alibaba (Luo et al. TPDS 2022) and Meta (Huye et al. ATC 2023, Du et al.
ICS 2025) trace studies, and a test suite verifying that motel check's
static bounds and Monte Carlo distributions reproduce the published
values. Document the comparison and its limitations in
docs/research/empirical-validation.md.

Closes #94
@andrewh
andrewh merged commit 321aead into main Jun 11, 2026
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andrewh deleted the claude/dreamy-sagan-mlqh92 branch June 11, 2026 05:34
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Validate motel check against published empirical trace metrics

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