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I made the curve from the Dunning-Kruger effect trope/meme.
I spent way too much time on this, but got it pretty good, so I'm adding the formulas here for future reference. We can include this curve in some of the cookbook recipes.
const double k1 = 152; // confidence velocity in stupidity
const double k2 = 0.22; // time of peak stupid
const double k3 = 4.2; // confidence velocity in enlightenment
const double k4 = 0.6; // delay until enlightenment starts
const double k5 = 0.6; // time enlightenment starts
const double k6 = 5; // rate of enlightenment
static double f1(double x) => Math.Exp(-k1 * Math.Pow(x - k2, 2));
static double f2(double x) => 1.0 / (1 + Math.Exp(-k3 * (x - k4)));
static double fr(double x) => 1.0 / (1 + Math.Exp(-k6 * (x - k5)));
static double dk(double x) => (1 - fr(x)) * f1(x) + fr(x) * f2(x);Reactions are currently unavailable
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