Use JRC-IDEES thermal energy service instead of FE for buildings heating demand#1255
Use JRC-IDEES thermal energy service instead of FE for buildings heating demand#1255
Conversation
This change consists of: - reading the final energy (FE) to thermal energy service (TES) efficiency for each each country, seperately for gas and oil (this efficiency represents e.g. the losses in older non-condensing boilers) - using TES instead of FE for the n.loads, so that it is pure energy service instead of including losses in legacy equipment - using the stored efficiencies for baseyear equipment in add_existing_baseyear In the baseyear (e.g. 2020) this should have no effect on FE, since the reduction to TES is conpensated by the lower efficiencies of existing equipment. In the future (e.g. 2050) this leads to a reduction in heating demand, since new equipment is more efficient than existing.
|
one thought @nworbmot : in |
|
I agree this will lead to a ~10% underestimation of district heating demand (since the FE to TES efficiency is ~93% in DE in 2020 for DH versus average of 83% we use to scale heating demand), which we should fix at a later point, but we should pull this PR now so we get the benefit for individual heating (~20% reduction of FE in 2050). 20% is a bigger effect that 10%*10% (error times 10% DH share) = 1%. I'm trying to think what the best way is to solve this really properly - we need to probably separate out the DH share at the beginning somehow. |
fneum
left a comment
fneum
left a comment
There was a problem hiding this comment.
Semantically, looks good to me. Some code fixes required before merging:
Co-authored-by: Fabian Neumann <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Fabian Neumann <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Fabian Neumann <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Fabian Neumann <[email protected]>
3 participants
This change consists of:
reading the final energy (FE) to thermal energy service (TES) efficiency for each each country from JRC-IDEES, separately for gas and oil (this efficiency represents e.g. the losses in older non-condensing boilers, averaging around 20% in 2020)
the efficiencies are stored in
resources/heating_efficiencies.csvfor different years and countriesusing TES instead of FE for the heat demand in n.loads_t, so that it is pure energy service instead of including losses in legacy equipment
using the stored boiler efficiencies for baseyear equipment in
add_existing_baseyear.pyIn the baseyear (e.g. 2020) this should have no effect on FE, since the reduction to TES is compensated by the lower efficiencies of existing equipment.
In the future (e.g. 2050) this leads to a reduction in heating demand, since new equipment is more efficient than existing.
The following documents changes to results for a 45-node 3H simulation with the myopic code and investment years 2020 and 2050.
The change reduces the heat demand by 19% in 2020 and 20% in 2050:
The fraction of heat provided by gas boilers actually goes down, since some is substituted by biomass boilers and heat pumps:
Gas boiler average efficiency drops from 97% to 78%, while oil boiler average efficiency drops from 90% to 62%.
This means that the effects of lower demand by 19% but including boiler losses better doesn't quite cancel out, because some of the gas demand is eaten by biomass boilers and heat pumps. Here is the gas boiler gas consumption:
The change reduced the objective function in 2020 by 2.3% and in 2050 by 9.1%.
Closes #540.
Changes proposed in this Pull Request
Checklist
envs/environment.yaml.config.default.yaml.doc/configtables/*.csv.doc/release_notes.rstis added.