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Jrc idees 2021#1167

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lisazeyen merged 52 commits intomasterfrom
jrc-idees-2020
Aug 12, 2024
Merged

Jrc idees 2021#1167
lisazeyen merged 52 commits intomasterfrom
jrc-idees-2020

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@lisazeyen lisazeyen commented Jul 18, 2024

Closes #1078

Changes proposed in this Pull Request

Update to the latest JRC IDEES data

What changed in the new data set:

  • GB not longer in JRC IDEES 2021 compared to JRC IDEES 2015
  • "Derived heat" changed to "Distributed heat" and numbers changed as well -> double check the definitions
  • Ukraine is added to intra EU flights
  • freight aviation is now split into domestic and international (intra EU and outside EU) before domestic and intra EU where together
  • 2015 data for Belgium changed

TODO:

  • remove rescaling to Eurostat data after plausibility checks
  • agriculture electricity, machinery, heat for GB is missing (add from Eurostat?)

Checklist

  • I tested my contribution locally and it seems to work fine.
  • Code and workflow changes are sufficiently documented.
  • Changed dependencies are added to envs/environment.yaml.
  • Changes in configuration options are added in all of config.default.yaml.
  • Changes in configuration options are also documented in doc/configtables/*.csv.
  • A release note doc/release_notes.rst is added.

There are 4 outputs of the script build_energy_totals

  1. co2_totals.csv -> checked no changes since does not depend on JRC-IDEES

  2. transport_data.csv
    transport_data_average fuel efficiency
    transport_data_number cars

  3. district_heat_share.csv
    dh_share

  4. energy_totals.csv
    In the following 2015 values are compared between JRC-IDEES 2015 (old) and JRC-IDEES 2021 (new)
    Aviation
    The values for domestic and international aviation are changing due to new definition of domestic and international, but the total demand of both is very similar
    energy_totals_total aviation_2015

Navigation
Domestic navigation for GB is now a bit larger therefore slightly lager total navigation, but difference is marginal
energy_totals_total navigation_2015

Heat
minor changes for residential and service space and water heat for 2015.
energy_totals_total services water_2015
energy_totals_total services space_2015
energy_totals_total residential water_2015
energy_totals_total residential space_2015

Agriculture
GB is missing! Fill data from Eurostat?
Some deviations, total heat demand increases, electricity demand decreases, since total agriculture stays similar, maybe some update that previous assigned electricity demand was actually for heating?
energy_totals_total agriculture_2015
energy_totals_total agriculture electricity_2015
energy_totals_total agriculture heat_2015
energy_totals_total agriculture machinery_2015
Transport
the sum of light and heavy duty transport stays roughly the same new 3554 TWh and old 3559 TWh
But some shift between light and heavy duty
energy_totals_total heavy duty_2015
energy_totals_total light duty_2015

Bug reindex DH share
Actually there was a bug when reindexing the DH share, so fixing this bug, changes the DH share but this is not connected to the JRC IDEES changes as follows
dh_share_2019_new

@lisazeyen lisazeyen requested a review from fneum July 19, 2024 13:28
@lisazeyen lisazeyen marked this pull request as ready for review July 19, 2024 13:28
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@fneum
Three points before a real review:

  • I am wondering, should we remove the rescaling function rescale_idees_from_eurostat or keep it in the script even though the function is not used right now for later, when we have updated eurostat data and JRC data only until 2021?
  • The data for the agriculture sector for GB is missing. I am not sure, what to do about it. Take Eurostat final energy consumption for the agriculture sector and assume similar split between heat/electricity/oil as for the other countries?
  • there are clearly some difference between the old and new JRC-IDEES data for e.g. 2015. I think they are small enough to not dig deeper into the reason of the changes, what do you think?

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fneum commented Jul 19, 2024

I am wondering, should we remove the rescaling function rescale_idees_from_eurostat or keep it in the script even though the function is not used right now for later, when we have updated eurostat data and JRC data only until 2021?

I would keep it for exactly this reason.

The data for the agriculture sector for GB is missing. I am not sure, what to do about it. Take Eurostat final energy consumption for the agriculture sector and assume similar split between heat/electricity/oil as for the other countries?

Is there an analogy for the other countries that were previously not in JRC-IDEES? Then, I would take that.

there are clearly some difference between the old and new JRC-IDEES data for e.g. 2015. I think they are small enough to not dig deeper into the reason of the changes, what do you think?

Perhaps let's do a few spot checks if the entries directly in the Excel files have changed to exclude that they have maybe disaggregated some entries further in the new version and we are missing them. I agree that the changes look mostly small.

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For the missing agriculture data for GB eurostat data for the overall demand is used and split by EU average into electricity, heat and machinery. The data in Eurostat for GB for 2020 and 2021 is missing (as well as for some countries for other years). In this case, data is filled with country data averaged over all years.
energy_totals_total agriculture_2015_v2
energy_totals_total agriculture machinery_2015_v2
energy_totals_total agriculture heat_2015_v2
energy_totals_total agriculture electricity_2015_v2

One should be aware the Eurostat Agriculture final energy consumption is not always 1:1 the JRC IDEES final energy consumption
compare_agriculture_idees_eurostat

@toniseibold toniseibold self-requested a review July 25, 2024 11:44
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lisazeyen commented Aug 1, 2024

Just as an update on the data validation:

  • Forecast seems to be using the old Eurostat data for iron and steel (13 447 ktoe for DE in 2015)
  • AGB Bilanzen for DE 2015 have for primary energy consumption in blast furnaces ~181 PJ = 4 323 ktoe which is more in line with the new Eurostat data and JRC-2021 with around 6 418 ktoe for integrated steel works in DE

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This is great! Codewise, I only have some small suggestions.

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fneum commented Aug 2, 2024

Forecast seems to be using the old Eurostat data for iron and steel (13 447 ktoe for DE in 2015)
(AGB Bilanzen for DE 2015](https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EBD15e.xlsx) have for primary energy consumption in blast furnaces ~181 PJ = 4 323 ktoe which is more in line with the new Eurostat data and JRC-2021 with around 6 418 ktoe for integrated steel works in DE

One further check could be via the industry sector ratios and compare to other sources, e.g. http://www.energybc.ca/cache/coal/www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-of-coal/coal-steel/index.html

Around 0.6 tonnes (600 kg) of coke produces 1 tonne (1000 kg) of steel, which means that around 770 kg of coal are used to produce 1 tonne of steel through this production route.

It's a bit curious that coke and coal demand are so drastically reduced, while electricity was not affected.

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Will ask FORECAST team how they interpret the big changes in HVC and integrated steelworks.

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Will ask FORECAST team how they interpret the big changes in HVC and integrated steelworks.

Ok, great, then let's wait for their feedback before merging...

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After the adjustments for the chemical feedstock and the integrated steelworks industrial_energy_demand_per_country_today looks like that for Europe 2015
industrial_energy_demand_per_country_before_summed_solid_2015
industrial_energy_demand_per_country_before_summed_liquid_2015
industrial_energy_demand_per_country

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@fneum maybe one final look from your site before the merging?

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LGTM. Just two very minor things, but happy for this to be merged.

Co-authored-by: Fabian Neumann <[email protected]>
@lisazeyen lisazeyen enabled auto-merge August 12, 2024 13:27
@lisazeyen lisazeyen merged commit 07fe3ca into master Aug 12, 2024
@fneum fneum mentioned this pull request Jan 14, 2026
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Update JRC-IDEES to latest version (May 2024)

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