Stephen Quinlan
Dr. Stephen Quinlan is a Senior Researcher at the GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences in the Department of Data and Research on Society (DRS). He manages the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) project.
Previously,Dr. Quinlan was a post-doc research fellow at the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde, where he worked on projects relating to social media platforms in the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014. Dr. Quinlan is a former IRCHSS Government of Ireland scholar and successfully defended his PhD dissertation, entitled "The Conundrum of Youth Turnout: A cross-national examination of generational processes" in October 2012. The thesis was nominated by the UCD School of Politics and International Relations for the prestigious ECPR's Jean Blondel prize and has also recently been nominated for the PSAI Basil Chubb Award.
Dr. Quinlan has been a visiting research fellow at Stanford University (autumn semester 2015) and at the Canada Research Chair in Electoral Studies at the Université de Montréal (autumn semester 2011). Dr. Quinlan's research interests center on electoral behaviour in a comparative perspective ranging from elections, political parties, referendums, opinion polls, the impact of social media on electoral behaviour, to predicting electoral outcomes.
Supervisors: Johan Elkink, Richard Sinnott , Derek Hutcheson, David Farrell , and Andre Blais
Address: Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences
Mannheim
Germany
Previously,Dr. Quinlan was a post-doc research fellow at the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde, where he worked on projects relating to social media platforms in the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014. Dr. Quinlan is a former IRCHSS Government of Ireland scholar and successfully defended his PhD dissertation, entitled "The Conundrum of Youth Turnout: A cross-national examination of generational processes" in October 2012. The thesis was nominated by the UCD School of Politics and International Relations for the prestigious ECPR's Jean Blondel prize and has also recently been nominated for the PSAI Basil Chubb Award.
Dr. Quinlan has been a visiting research fellow at Stanford University (autumn semester 2015) and at the Canada Research Chair in Electoral Studies at the Université de Montréal (autumn semester 2011). Dr. Quinlan's research interests center on electoral behaviour in a comparative perspective ranging from elections, political parties, referendums, opinion polls, the impact of social media on electoral behaviour, to predicting electoral outcomes.
Supervisors: Johan Elkink, Richard Sinnott , Derek Hutcheson, David Farrell , and Andre Blais
Address: Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences
Mannheim
Germany
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Publications by Stephen Quinlan
considerations are more important to voters in national elections. However, other research suggests that utilitarian motivations
are key to understanding support for the EU. An EU integration referendum offers the opportunity to explore whether
and when sociotropic or utilitarian motivations are more important in determining vote choice. The unusual combination
of two successive referendums in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty, either side of the Global Financial Crisis, provides the ideal
opportunity to test these assumptions. Using data from two post-referendum surveys, we demonstrate that the economy
mattered in both referendums but that different economic motivations drove vote choice in each, with sociotropic motivations
more critical as a result of the Global Financial Crisis. Our study has implications for economic voting and referendums
and demonstrates that context is crucial in determining a voter’s economic motivations in a plebiscite.
candidates in the 2013 German Federal elections. Utilizing data
from the German Longitudinal Election Study candidate survey
fused with data gathered on the Twitter and Facebook use of
candidates, we draw a clear distinction between Facebook and
Twitter. We show that adoption of both channels is primarily
driven by two factors: party and money. But the impact of each
plays out differently for Facebook and Twitter. While the influence
of money is homogenous for Facebook and Twitter with the more
resources candidates have, the more likely they are to adopt, the
effect is stronger for Facebook. Conversely, a party’s impact on
adoption is heterogeneous across channels, a pattern we suggest
is driven by the different audiences Facebook and Twitter attract.
We also find candidates’ personality traits only correlate with
Twitter adoption, but their impact is minimal. Our findings
demonstrate that social media adoption by politicians is far from
homogenous, and that there is a need to differentiate social
media channels from one another when exploring motivations for
their use.
low levels of knowledge, disinterest and misinformation, negativity, and a focus on
extraneous issues to which voters are voting. But social media offers new avenues for
referendums to incorporate a greater deliberative dimension. Through a content analysis of
BBC discussion forums, we test whether online discussion of the Scottish independence
referendum has deliberative characteristics. Results suggest a mixed picture with conversation
displaying some deliberative features (low incidences of flaming/discussion of
referendum issues). However, low levels of discussion intensity, dominance by a few, little
knowledge exchange, and high gender inequality illustrate that online referendum discussion
lacks deliberative characteristics, implying that social media are not a panacea for
referendum deliberation
than opinion polls on government popularity to viewing these referendums as fundamentally expressions of the attitudes of citizens towards the European integration project. The Irish referendums on the Lisbon Treaty provide new data with which to further test the various theories. While in 2008 the referendum was lost due to misperceptions of certain elements of the Treaty and inadequate political knowledge among the public (Sinnott and Elkink 2010), this article shows that in the 2009 referendum voted on the basis of their attitudes towards the European project rather than on the depth of their understanding of the issues.
and economic context that the election was fought in showing how the events of the year previous to the election set the tone for its eventual outcome. The report then examines the campaign itself before providing an assessment of some of the factors that determined voters’ behaviour in the election before concluding by looking ahead to what the results may tell us about future elections and voting behaviour in Ireland.
Chapters by Stephen Quinlan
Working Papers by Stephen Quinlan
examining one of the processes that may be driving generational phenomena and which also may provide an explanation for the recent decline in turnout among under-30s, namely the trend in some countries towards ideological convergence between the political parties on ‘left-right’ issues, what one could describe as the (re)emergence of Butskellism. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto’s Project (CMP) and the Comparative
Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), the paper devises a multi-level logit model to test whether the party differential at the time an individual enters the electorate conditions an individual’s electoral participation today. The paper finds that party differential at the point of electoral initiation has a small, but significant effect on young people’s future turnout behaviour. However, as the person ages, the effect subsides. The findings suggest that Butskellism may account for a small part of the decline in turnout among under-30s in recent years. It also emphasize the importance of political context at the point of electoral initiation and that while Butskellism has played a small role in the decline of youth turnout, other process are clearly driving generational patterns of electoral participation.
considerations are more important to voters in national elections. However, other research suggests that utilitarian motivations
are key to understanding support for the EU. An EU integration referendum offers the opportunity to explore whether
and when sociotropic or utilitarian motivations are more important in determining vote choice. The unusual combination
of two successive referendums in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty, either side of the Global Financial Crisis, provides the ideal
opportunity to test these assumptions. Using data from two post-referendum surveys, we demonstrate that the economy
mattered in both referendums but that different economic motivations drove vote choice in each, with sociotropic motivations
more critical as a result of the Global Financial Crisis. Our study has implications for economic voting and referendums
and demonstrates that context is crucial in determining a voter’s economic motivations in a plebiscite.
candidates in the 2013 German Federal elections. Utilizing data
from the German Longitudinal Election Study candidate survey
fused with data gathered on the Twitter and Facebook use of
candidates, we draw a clear distinction between Facebook and
Twitter. We show that adoption of both channels is primarily
driven by two factors: party and money. But the impact of each
plays out differently for Facebook and Twitter. While the influence
of money is homogenous for Facebook and Twitter with the more
resources candidates have, the more likely they are to adopt, the
effect is stronger for Facebook. Conversely, a party’s impact on
adoption is heterogeneous across channels, a pattern we suggest
is driven by the different audiences Facebook and Twitter attract.
We also find candidates’ personality traits only correlate with
Twitter adoption, but their impact is minimal. Our findings
demonstrate that social media adoption by politicians is far from
homogenous, and that there is a need to differentiate social
media channels from one another when exploring motivations for
their use.
low levels of knowledge, disinterest and misinformation, negativity, and a focus on
extraneous issues to which voters are voting. But social media offers new avenues for
referendums to incorporate a greater deliberative dimension. Through a content analysis of
BBC discussion forums, we test whether online discussion of the Scottish independence
referendum has deliberative characteristics. Results suggest a mixed picture with conversation
displaying some deliberative features (low incidences of flaming/discussion of
referendum issues). However, low levels of discussion intensity, dominance by a few, little
knowledge exchange, and high gender inequality illustrate that online referendum discussion
lacks deliberative characteristics, implying that social media are not a panacea for
referendum deliberation
than opinion polls on government popularity to viewing these referendums as fundamentally expressions of the attitudes of citizens towards the European integration project. The Irish referendums on the Lisbon Treaty provide new data with which to further test the various theories. While in 2008 the referendum was lost due to misperceptions of certain elements of the Treaty and inadequate political knowledge among the public (Sinnott and Elkink 2010), this article shows that in the 2009 referendum voted on the basis of their attitudes towards the European project rather than on the depth of their understanding of the issues.
and economic context that the election was fought in showing how the events of the year previous to the election set the tone for its eventual outcome. The report then examines the campaign itself before providing an assessment of some of the factors that determined voters’ behaviour in the election before concluding by looking ahead to what the results may tell us about future elections and voting behaviour in Ireland.
examining one of the processes that may be driving generational phenomena and which also may provide an explanation for the recent decline in turnout among under-30s, namely the trend in some countries towards ideological convergence between the political parties on ‘left-right’ issues, what one could describe as the (re)emergence of Butskellism. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto’s Project (CMP) and the Comparative
Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), the paper devises a multi-level logit model to test whether the party differential at the time an individual enters the electorate conditions an individual’s electoral participation today. The paper finds that party differential at the point of electoral initiation has a small, but significant effect on young people’s future turnout behaviour. However, as the person ages, the effect subsides. The findings suggest that Butskellism may account for a small part of the decline in turnout among under-30s in recent years. It also emphasize the importance of political context at the point of electoral initiation and that while Butskellism has played a small role in the decline of youth turnout, other process are clearly driving generational patterns of electoral participation.
Using data from three cross-national surveys over time, this paper puts the this proposition to the test. Its objective is to establish if the shift to engagement via alternative modes can explain the decline in youth turnout and consequently generational differences with respect to voting. The paper finds the alternative modes of political activity either increases young peoples’ probability of voting or has no bearing on it. These relationships are consistent across all models and time. The results challenge the alternative modes explanation for youth turnout decline and suggest that the reasons behind generational differences with respect to voting lie elsewhere.
examining one of the processes that may be driving generational phenomena and which also may provide an explanation for the recent decline in turnout among under-30s, namely the trend in some countries towards ideological convergence between the political parties on ‘left-right’ issues, what one could describe as the (re)emergence of Butskellism. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto’s Project (CMP) and the Comparative
Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), the paper devises a multi-level logit model to test whether the party differential at the time an individual enters the electorate conditions an individual’s electoral participation today. The paper finds that party differential at the point of electoral initiation has a small, but significant effect on young people’s future turnout behaviour. However, as the person ages, the effect subsides. The findings suggest that Butskellism may account for a small part of the decline in turnout among under-30s in recent years. It also emphasize the importance of political context at the point of electoral initiation and that while Butskellism has played a small role in the decline of youth turnout, other process are clearly driving generational patterns of electoral participation.