Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting... more Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of "aerodynamic" drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass.
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, 2008
We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotati... more We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 - 12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were
Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corota... more Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short-term cosmic ray depressions, generally denoted as Forbush decreases. Aims. We conduct a systematic statistical study of various aspects of Forbush decreases. The analysis provides empirical background for physical interpretations of short-term cosmic ray modulations. Methods. Firstly, we analyzed the effects of different types of solar wind disturbances, and secondly, we focused on the phenomenon of over-recovery (the return of the cosmic ray count to a value higher than the pre-decrease level). The analysis is based on groundbased neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer. The correlations between various cosmic ray depressions and solar wind parameters as well as their statistical significance are analyzed in detail. In addition, we performed a normalized superposed epoch analysis for depressions and magnetic field enhancements. Results. The analysis revealed differences in the relationship between different solar wind disturbances and cosmic ray depression parameters. The amplitude of the depression for ICMEs was found to correlate well with the amplitudes of magnetic field strength and fluctuations, whereas for CIRs we found only the correlation between the amplitude of the depression and the solar wind disturbance dimension proxy vt B . Similar behavior was found for shock and no-shock events, respectively. The CIR/ICME composites show a specific behavior that is a mixture of both ICMEs and CIRs. For all analyzed categories we found that the duration of the depression correlates with the duration of the solar wind disturbance. The analysis of the over-recovery showed that there is no straightforward relationship to either "branching-effect" or geomagnetic effects, therefore we propose a scenario where the "branching-effect" is caused by several factors and is only indirectly related to the over-recovery.
The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hyp... more The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the Earth's atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease (Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets. Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.
We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotati... more We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 -12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were derived from the Solar X-Ray Imager onboard GOES-12. For the analysis we have chosen a period in the declining phase of solar cycle 23, covering the period 25 January-5 May 2005. During the CIR periods CR decreased typically from 0.5 % to 2 %. A cross-correlation analysis showed a distinct anti-correlation between the magnetic field and CR, with the correlation coefficient (r) ranging from −0.31 to −0.38 (mean: −0.36) and with the CR time delay of 2 to 3 days. Similar anti-correlations were found for the solar wind density and velocity characterized by the CR time lag of 4 and 1 day, respectively. The relationship was also established between the CR modulation and the area of the CIR-related CH with the CR time lag of 5 days after the central-meridian passage of CH.
Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affe... more Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by aerodynamic drag. Aims: The dependence of the drag acceleration on the mass of the CMEs is investigated to establish a quantitative empirical relationship, which might be important in semi-empirical space-weather forecasting. Methods: We employ a large sample of CMEs observed in the radial distance range of
For many years the prospect that the solar-modulated cosmic ray flux could alter Earth’s clouds a... more For many years the prospect that the solar-modulated cosmic ray flux could alter Earth’s clouds and climate stood as a tantalising hypothesis. A version of this idea, termed Cosmoclimatology, involved a link between cosmic ray induced ionization and the nucleation and growth of aerosols that could modify clouds. If true, it would have overturned mainstream climate science. However, over time, results from experiments, models, and observations showed Cosmoclimatology to be false. In this work, we outline the perspective from satellite observations at long and short time-scales. We also reflect on the implications of the cosmic ray flux on clouds via a second pathway, the Global Electric Circuit to the future of this research field.
Recently, the double solar telescope at Hvar Observatory was equipped with the fourth generation ... more Recently, the double solar telescope at Hvar Observatory was equipped with the fourth generation of acquisition hardware and software. It provides a valuable instrument to study rapid changes of chromospheric and photospheric features in great detail. The telescope consists of two Carl Zeiss refractors (photosphere d=217mm, chromosphere d=130mm) mounted as one unit on a German parallax mounting. Using a field of view of about 7 and 11 arcmin, it aims to produce high-resolution high-cadence imaging of active regions on the Sun. New Pulnix TM-4200GE 12-bit CCD cameras allow to obtain time series with a cadence up to 30 images per minute.
Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting... more Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of "aerodynamic" drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass.
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, 2008
We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotati... more We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 -12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were derived from the Solar X-Ray Imager onboard GOES-12. For the analysis we have chosen a period in the declining phase of solar cycle 23, covering the period 25 January-5 May 2005. During the CIR periods CR decreased typically from 0.5 % to 2 %. A cross-correlation analysis showed a distinct anti-correlation between the magnetic field and CR, with the correlation coefficient (r) ranging from −0.31 to −0.38 (mean: −0.36) and with the CR time delay of 2 to 3 days. Similar anti-correlations were found for the solar wind density and velocity characterized by the CR time lag of 4 and 1 day, respectively. The relationship was also established between the CR modulation and the area of the CIR-related CH with the CR time lag of 5 days after the central-meridian passage of CH.
Aims. We perform a systematic statistical study of the relationship between characteristics of so... more Aims. We perform a systematic statistical study of the relationship between characteristics of solar wind disturbances, caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions, and properties of Forbush decreases (FDs). Since the mechanism of FDs is still being researched, this analysis should provide a firm empirical basis for physical interpretations of the FD phenomenon. Methods. The analysis is based on the ground-based neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer, where the disturbances were identified as increases in proton speed, magnetic field, and magnetic field fluctuations. We focus on the relative timing of FDs, as well as on the correlations between various FD and solar wind parameters, paying special attention to the statistical significance of the results. Results. It was found that the onset, the minimum, and the end of FDs are delayed after the onset, the maximum, and the end of the magnetic field enhancement. The t-test shows that at the 95% significance level the average lags have to be longer than 3, 7, and 26 h, respectively. FD magnitude (|FD|) is correlated with the magnetic field strength (B), magnetic field fluctuations (δB), and speed (v), as well as with combined parameters, Bt B , Bv, vt B , and Bvt B , where t B is the duration of the magnetic field disturbance. In the |FD|(B) dependence, a "branching" effect was observed, i.e., two different trends exist. The analysis of the FD duration and recovery period reveals a correlation with the duration of the magnetic field enhancement. The strongest correlations are obtained for the dependence on combined solar wind parameters of the product of the FD duration and magnitude, implying that combined parameters are in fact true variables themselves, rather than just a product of variables. Conclusions. From the time lags we estimate that "the penetration depth" in the disturbance, at which FD onset becomes recognizable, is on the order of 100 Larmor radii and is comparable to a typical shock-sheath dimension. The results for the FD time profile indicate "shadow effect" of the solar wind disturbance before and after it passes the observer. The importance of reduced parallel diffusion during the passage of the disturbance is discussed, along with the influence of terrestrial effects on the observed "branching effect".
Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corota... more Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short-term cosmic ray depressions, generally denoted as Forbush decreases. Aims. We conduct a systematic statistical study of various aspects of Forbush decreases. The analysis provides empirical background for physical interpretations of short-term cosmic ray modulations. Methods. Firstly, we analyzed the effects of different types of solar wind disturbances, and secondly, we focused on the phenomenon of over-recovery (the return of the cosmic ray count to a value higher than the pre-decrease level). The analysis is based on groundbased neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer. The correlations between various cosmic ray depressions and solar wind parameters as well as their statistical significance are analyzed in detail. In addition, we performed a normalized superposed epoch analysis for depressions and magnetic field enhancements. Results. The analysis revealed differences in the relationship between different solar wind disturbances and cosmic ray depression parameters. The amplitude of the depression for ICMEs was found to correlate well with the amplitudes of magnetic field strength and fluctuations, whereas for CIRs we found only the correlation between the amplitude of the depression and the solar wind disturbance dimension proxy vt B . Similar behavior was found for shock and no-shock events, respectively. The CIR/ICME composites show a specific behavior that is a mixture of both ICMEs and CIRs. For all analyzed categories we found that the duration of the depression correlates with the duration of the solar wind disturbance. The analysis of the over-recovery showed that there is no straightforward relationship to either "branching-effect" or geomagnetic effects, therefore we propose a scenario where the "branching-effect" is caused by several factors and is only indirectly related to the over-recovery.
Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affe... more Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by aerodynamic drag. Aims: The dependence of the drag acceleration on the mass of the CMEs is investigated to establish a quantitative empirical relationship, which might be important in semi-empirical space-weather forecasting. Methods: We employ a large sample of CMEs observed in the radial distance range of
Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting... more Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of "aerodynamic" drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass.
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, 2008
We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotati... more We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 - 12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were
Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corota... more Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short-term cosmic ray depressions, generally denoted as Forbush decreases. Aims. We conduct a systematic statistical study of various aspects of Forbush decreases. The analysis provides empirical background for physical interpretations of short-term cosmic ray modulations. Methods. Firstly, we analyzed the effects of different types of solar wind disturbances, and secondly, we focused on the phenomenon of over-recovery (the return of the cosmic ray count to a value higher than the pre-decrease level). The analysis is based on groundbased neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer. The correlations between various cosmic ray depressions and solar wind parameters as well as their statistical significance are analyzed in detail. In addition, we performed a normalized superposed epoch analysis for depressions and magnetic field enhancements. Results. The analysis revealed differences in the relationship between different solar wind disturbances and cosmic ray depression parameters. The amplitude of the depression for ICMEs was found to correlate well with the amplitudes of magnetic field strength and fluctuations, whereas for CIRs we found only the correlation between the amplitude of the depression and the solar wind disturbance dimension proxy vt B . Similar behavior was found for shock and no-shock events, respectively. The CIR/ICME composites show a specific behavior that is a mixture of both ICMEs and CIRs. For all analyzed categories we found that the duration of the depression correlates with the duration of the solar wind disturbance. The analysis of the over-recovery showed that there is no straightforward relationship to either "branching-effect" or geomagnetic effects, therefore we propose a scenario where the "branching-effect" is caused by several factors and is only indirectly related to the over-recovery.
The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hyp... more The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the Earth's atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease (Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets. Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.
We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotati... more We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 -12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were derived from the Solar X-Ray Imager onboard GOES-12. For the analysis we have chosen a period in the declining phase of solar cycle 23, covering the period 25 January-5 May 2005. During the CIR periods CR decreased typically from 0.5 % to 2 %. A cross-correlation analysis showed a distinct anti-correlation between the magnetic field and CR, with the correlation coefficient (r) ranging from −0.31 to −0.38 (mean: −0.36) and with the CR time delay of 2 to 3 days. Similar anti-correlations were found for the solar wind density and velocity characterized by the CR time lag of 4 and 1 day, respectively. The relationship was also established between the CR modulation and the area of the CIR-related CH with the CR time lag of 5 days after the central-meridian passage of CH.
Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affe... more Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by aerodynamic drag. Aims: The dependence of the drag acceleration on the mass of the CMEs is investigated to establish a quantitative empirical relationship, which might be important in semi-empirical space-weather forecasting. Methods: We employ a large sample of CMEs observed in the radial distance range of
For many years the prospect that the solar-modulated cosmic ray flux could alter Earth’s clouds a... more For many years the prospect that the solar-modulated cosmic ray flux could alter Earth’s clouds and climate stood as a tantalising hypothesis. A version of this idea, termed Cosmoclimatology, involved a link between cosmic ray induced ionization and the nucleation and growth of aerosols that could modify clouds. If true, it would have overturned mainstream climate science. However, over time, results from experiments, models, and observations showed Cosmoclimatology to be false. In this work, we outline the perspective from satellite observations at long and short time-scales. We also reflect on the implications of the cosmic ray flux on clouds via a second pathway, the Global Electric Circuit to the future of this research field.
Recently, the double solar telescope at Hvar Observatory was equipped with the fourth generation ... more Recently, the double solar telescope at Hvar Observatory was equipped with the fourth generation of acquisition hardware and software. It provides a valuable instrument to study rapid changes of chromospheric and photospheric features in great detail. The telescope consists of two Carl Zeiss refractors (photosphere d=217mm, chromosphere d=130mm) mounted as one unit on a German parallax mounting. Using a field of view of about 7 and 11 arcmin, it aims to produce high-resolution high-cadence imaging of active regions on the Sun. New Pulnix TM-4200GE 12-bit CCD cameras allow to obtain time series with a cadence up to 30 images per minute.
Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting... more Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of "aerodynamic" drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass.
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, 2008
We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotati... more We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 -12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were derived from the Solar X-Ray Imager onboard GOES-12. For the analysis we have chosen a period in the declining phase of solar cycle 23, covering the period 25 January-5 May 2005. During the CIR periods CR decreased typically from 0.5 % to 2 %. A cross-correlation analysis showed a distinct anti-correlation between the magnetic field and CR, with the correlation coefficient (r) ranging from −0.31 to −0.38 (mean: −0.36) and with the CR time delay of 2 to 3 days. Similar anti-correlations were found for the solar wind density and velocity characterized by the CR time lag of 4 and 1 day, respectively. The relationship was also established between the CR modulation and the area of the CIR-related CH with the CR time lag of 5 days after the central-meridian passage of CH.
Aims. We perform a systematic statistical study of the relationship between characteristics of so... more Aims. We perform a systematic statistical study of the relationship between characteristics of solar wind disturbances, caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions, and properties of Forbush decreases (FDs). Since the mechanism of FDs is still being researched, this analysis should provide a firm empirical basis for physical interpretations of the FD phenomenon. Methods. The analysis is based on the ground-based neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer, where the disturbances were identified as increases in proton speed, magnetic field, and magnetic field fluctuations. We focus on the relative timing of FDs, as well as on the correlations between various FD and solar wind parameters, paying special attention to the statistical significance of the results. Results. It was found that the onset, the minimum, and the end of FDs are delayed after the onset, the maximum, and the end of the magnetic field enhancement. The t-test shows that at the 95% significance level the average lags have to be longer than 3, 7, and 26 h, respectively. FD magnitude (|FD|) is correlated with the magnetic field strength (B), magnetic field fluctuations (δB), and speed (v), as well as with combined parameters, Bt B , Bv, vt B , and Bvt B , where t B is the duration of the magnetic field disturbance. In the |FD|(B) dependence, a "branching" effect was observed, i.e., two different trends exist. The analysis of the FD duration and recovery period reveals a correlation with the duration of the magnetic field enhancement. The strongest correlations are obtained for the dependence on combined solar wind parameters of the product of the FD duration and magnitude, implying that combined parameters are in fact true variables themselves, rather than just a product of variables. Conclusions. From the time lags we estimate that "the penetration depth" in the disturbance, at which FD onset becomes recognizable, is on the order of 100 Larmor radii and is comparable to a typical shock-sheath dimension. The results for the FD time profile indicate "shadow effect" of the solar wind disturbance before and after it passes the observer. The importance of reduced parallel diffusion during the passage of the disturbance is discussed, along with the influence of terrestrial effects on the observed "branching effect".
Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corota... more Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short-term cosmic ray depressions, generally denoted as Forbush decreases. Aims. We conduct a systematic statistical study of various aspects of Forbush decreases. The analysis provides empirical background for physical interpretations of short-term cosmic ray modulations. Methods. Firstly, we analyzed the effects of different types of solar wind disturbances, and secondly, we focused on the phenomenon of over-recovery (the return of the cosmic ray count to a value higher than the pre-decrease level). The analysis is based on groundbased neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer. The correlations between various cosmic ray depressions and solar wind parameters as well as their statistical significance are analyzed in detail. In addition, we performed a normalized superposed epoch analysis for depressions and magnetic field enhancements. Results. The analysis revealed differences in the relationship between different solar wind disturbances and cosmic ray depression parameters. The amplitude of the depression for ICMEs was found to correlate well with the amplitudes of magnetic field strength and fluctuations, whereas for CIRs we found only the correlation between the amplitude of the depression and the solar wind disturbance dimension proxy vt B . Similar behavior was found for shock and no-shock events, respectively. The CIR/ICME composites show a specific behavior that is a mixture of both ICMEs and CIRs. For all analyzed categories we found that the duration of the depression correlates with the duration of the solar wind disturbance. The analysis of the over-recovery showed that there is no straightforward relationship to either "branching-effect" or geomagnetic effects, therefore we propose a scenario where the "branching-effect" is caused by several factors and is only indirectly related to the over-recovery.
Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affe... more Context: Coronal and interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by aerodynamic drag. Aims: The dependence of the drag acceleration on the mass of the CMEs is investigated to establish a quantitative empirical relationship, which might be important in semi-empirical space-weather forecasting. Methods: We employ a large sample of CMEs observed in the radial distance range of
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