3

CHAPTER
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND VARIABILITY

Introduction
Climate change is possibly the most significant environmental challenge The threat of Lead Authors
of our time and it poses serious threats to sustainable development Charles C. Mutai and Samuel O. Ochola
climate change
in Kenya. It impacts ecosystems, water resources, food, health, coastal Contributing authors:
zones, industrial activity and human settlements. However, addressing Climate change and variability Hannington K. Mukiira Louis N Gachimbi,
Maurice Otiono Stephen M. King’uyu,
these impacts presents opportunities for innovation, business and are considered to be major Samwel N. Marigi
improved livelihoods. threats to sustainable Reviewers
development. The major areas Elias H.O Ayiemba, Emily Massawa
Many future impacts of climate change or variability can be likely to feel the greatest
reduced, delayed or avoided if the necessary mitigation, adaptation impacts include the economy,
and coping strategies are implemented. Kenya will need about US $500 water, ecosystems, food security, coastal zones, health and the
million per year to address current and future climate change effects distribution of populations and settlements. Africa is considered to be
by 2012. It is predicted that this figure will rise to US $1-2 billion per particularly vulnerable to climate change-induced effects largely due
year by 2030. Unless effective mitigation and adaptation mechanisms to lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity (Eriksen et
are urgently instituted, the combined effect of the climate change- al 2008, IPCC 2007a).
induced impacts will slow or even hinder achievement of the targets
detailed in Vision 2030. It is therefore important to formulate a range Climate change effects are already being felt in Kenya. Moreover,
of policy instruments to address climate change. While the National widespread poverty, recurrent droughts and floods, inequitable land
Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) was finalized in 2010, distribution, overdependence on rain-fed agriculture, and few coping
there is need to go further and formulate a national policy on climate mechanisms all combine to increase people’s vulnerability to climate
change and enact a climate change law. change. For instance, poor people have little protection against extreme
climatic events. They have few resource reserves, poor housing and
depend on natural resources for their livelihoods. Extreme weather
Box 3.1: Key definitions
events have serious economic implications. Floods and droughts cause
Climate change refers to a change in the state of climate that damage to property and loss of life, reduce business opportunities
can be identified (for example using statistical tests) by changes and increase the cost of doing business. Vulnerability to climate change
in the mean and/or the variability of its properties. It persists for is not uniform across Kenya. Box 3.1 gives a definition of the key terms
an extended period, typically decades or longer. used in this chapter.

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and

Evidence of climate change
other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales Global Level
beyond that of individual weather events. It may be due to
Owing to mounting scientific evidence, there is growing consensus
natural internal processes within the climate system, or variations
that the world has to grapple with increasingly severer climatic events.
in natural or anthropogenic external forcings.
Some of the manifestations of climate change are rising average
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, temperatures with the last three decades having got successively
and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. It is a warmer (Arndt et al 2010), increasing sea levels which have been rising
function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change at an average 1.8 mm/year between 1961 and 1992 and about 3.1 mm/
and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its year since 1993 (IPCC 2007) and the thinning snow cover in the Northern
adaptive capacity. Vulnerability is thus the relationship between Hemisphere. These manifestations of climate change are
the degree of climate stress on the population (exposure), the diagrammatically depicted in Figures 3.1a-c. Climate change and
degree of responsiveness to stress (sensitivity) and the ability of variability have also led to more frequent extreme weather events such
the population to adjust to climate changes (adaptive capacity). as hurricanes, erratic rainfall, flooding, more intense and prolonged
droughts and devastation of some coastal areas, species’ extinction, a

46
 400 2 000
(a) Global average surface temperature 14.5
0.5 1 800

Temperature (0C)
ĂƌďŽŶŝŽdžŝĚĞ;KЇͿ
Methane (CHЉͿ 1 600
350 Nitrous Oxide (NЇKͿ

COЇ (ppm) and

(0C)

0.0 14.0

CHЉ (ppb)
EЇK;ƉƉďͿ
1 400

1 200
300
-0.5 13.5 1 000

800
Difference from 1961 - 1990

(b) Global average sea level

50 250 600
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000
0 Year
(mm)

Figure 3.2: Trends in greenhouse gas emissions Source IPCC 2007

-50
over the last 2000 years

-100
constant levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 6.4°C for the
-150
highest case emissions scenario. The assessment of regional climatology
requires more study, including research on climate-model projections
(c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover
and associated down-scaling of climate outlooks from regional to local
4
40 scales (Hulme et al 2005, Vogel and O’Brien 2006).
(million km2)

(million km2)

0 Anthropogenic factors are thought to be the main drivers of

36
global warming. Human activities have led to changes in the chemical
-4 composition of the atmosphere by adding more greenhouse gases
32
(GHGs) to it. Between 1970 and 2004, global GHG emissions increased
1850 1900 1950 2000 by 70 percent (IPCC 2007). The energy sector was the largest contributor
Year
of global GHG emissions, increasing by about 145 percent. Over the
Figure 3.1: Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; Source IPCC 2007
(b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) same period, direct emissions from transport grew by 120 percent;
data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April
industry 65 percent; and land use, land use change and forestry 40
reduction in ecosystems’ diversity and negative impacts on human percent (IPCC 2007). Trends in the concentrations of the main GHGs—
health (IPCC 2007). Future IPCC projection scenarios indicate an carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)—are
expected range of global warming of between 0.3°C for a scenario of shown in Figure 3.2.

Climate change-induced drought has devastating impacts on the livestock sector as this photo of emaciated livestock and carcasses in Dambas, Arbajahan, demonstrates.

Brendan Cox / Oxfam

47
 differently. The evidence shows warming of about 0.7°C on average
KďƐĞƌǀĂƟŽŶƐ
over most of Africa during the twentieth century (IPCC 2007). This is
Models using only natural forcings
Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings shown in Figure 3.3.
1.0
Temperature Anomaly (϶C)
There has also been a 25 percent decrease in rainfall across large
portions of the Sahel over the past 30 years (Desanker undated).
Southern and eastern Africa also had more intense and widespread
0.5
droughts, while central Africa experienced increased rainfall and less
severe droughts (Desanker undated, Shongwe et al, 2010, IPCC 2007).
0.0
The trends for the East African region are shown in Figures 3.4 and 3.5.
Although increased precipitation generally has beneficial implications
for agricultural production, it may also have negative impacts caused
by the increased frequencies and intensities of extreme events like
1900 1950 2000 floods.
Year
Source: IPCC 2007
The top panel of Figure 3.4 illustrates the projected changes
Figure 3.3: Comparison of observed continental- scale changes in surface temperature with
results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic (percent) in October –December (OND) short rains in East Africa along
forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the “period 1906-2005 (black
line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average
the following trajectories: a) mean precipitation rates, b) 10-year driest
for the 1901-1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50 per cent. Blue events, and c) 10-year wettest events in each climatic zone. The middle
shaded bands show the 5- 95 per cent range for 19 simulations from five climate models
using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Purple shaded bands number gives the mean projected change preceded by the relevant
show the 5- 95 per cent range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using both natural
and anthropogenic forcings.
sign (+ve for increase and -ve for decrease). The number above or
below the mean change, preceded by a +ve or -ve sign gives the
Africa distance to the upper or lower critical value as the case may be, at the
5 percent level of significance. Projected changes at the 5 percent
Climate change and variability are being felt on the African continent
significance level are shaded while those at the 1 percent level
with different parts of the continent experiencing climate change
are indicated by xx. Figure 3.5’s bottom panel displays identical

Figure 3.4: Projected changes (percent) in October - December (OND) short rains and the March, April, May
Source: Shongwe et al 2010
(MAM) long rains in East Africa.

48
Figure 3.5: Trends for observed and simulated rainfall anomalies over East Africa over the 1961-1990 baseline period Source: Shongwe et al 2010

trajectories for the East African region in respect of the March, April, weather events. These climatic conditions will combine with social,
May (MAM) season. economic and environmental factors to exacerbate the region’s
vulnerabilities including lack of water, food insecurity, diseases, conflict
Figure 3.5 demonstrates the trends for observed and simulated
and degradation of natural resources.
rainfall anomalies over East Africa over the 1961-1990 baseline period.
Panels a), b) and c) are for OND rainfall. Panel d) represents much of Kenya
Tanzania during austral summer-autumn that lasts from November-
An analysis of the trends in temperature, rainfall, sea levels and extreme
April (NDJFMA). The bottom two panels display the series for MAM
events points to clear evidence of climate change in Kenya. Studies
precipitation in (e) eastern Kenya, and (f ) northern Kenya and Uganda.
indicate that temperatures have generally risen throughout the country,
The black vertical lines terminated by circles display the observed 20th
primarily near the large water bodies (King’uyu et al 2000, GoK 2010).
century precipitation from CRU data. The white lines show the ensemble
Other projections also indicate increases in mean annual temperature
average, with the lighter and darker grey shadings indicating 50 percent
of 1 to 3.5oC by the 2050s (SEI 2009). The country’s arid and semi-arid
and 95 percent of the distribution, respectively.
lands (ASALs) have also witnessed a reduction in extreme cold
During the 21st century, this warming trend and changes in temperature occurrences (Kilavi 2008). This warming is leading to the
precipitation patterns are expected to continue. The warming will be depletion of glaciers on Mount Kenya (IPCC 2007, UNEP 2009). Because
greatest over the interior of the semi-arid margins of the Sahara and of the vital ecological role of mountains, this will have negative
central southern Africa (Desanker undated). These effects will be implications on biodiversity and water supply in the country and
accompanied by a rise in sea level and increased frequency of extreme tourism, whose continued double-digit growth is crucial to achieving

49
 (a) (a)

90 Makindu - FD15 40
ĂŐŽƌĞƫͲdEϭϬƉ
35
80 30
25

Days
70
Days

20
60 15
10
50
5
0
40

1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1997
1998
2000
2002
1971
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year Year
(b)
(b)
40
Makindu - SU30 ĂŐŽƌĞƫͲdEϵϬ
185 35
165 30
145 25
20

Days
125
Days

15
105
10
85
5
65 0

1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1997
1998
2000
2002
45 -5
1968

1974

1976

1980

1983

1986

1990

1994

1997

2000

2003

Year
Year
(c)
Figure 3.6: Trends for days with (a) minimum temperature below Source: King’uyu et al. 2010
15°C, and (b) maximum temperature above 30°C at Makindu
13.1
ĂŐŽƌĞƫͲdZ
12.6
the 10 percent economic growth rate anticipated by Vision 2030. Figure
3.6 shows the general warming trends over the country’s land stations 12.1
as indicated by positive day and night time temperatures. 11.6
Days

11.1
Mean temperatures are also predicted to increase with a greater
10.6
frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights and fewer ‘cold’ days or nights. A
10.1
hot day or night is defined by the temperature exceeded on 10 percent
9.6
of the days or nights in the current average climate of an area (station);
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
and cold days or nights are defined as the temperature for the coldest
10 percent of the days or nights. In some areas like Nairobi, night-time Year
warming features more prominently than day-time warming. This is Figure 3.7: Number of days with minimum temperature at Source: King’uyu et al. 2010

shown in Figure 3.7. However, some of the observed trends may be Dagoretti (Nairobi): (a) Below the 10th percentile; (b) above the
90th percentile; and (c) daily temperature range
related to rising urbanization (King’uyu 2002) with the effect that more
pressure will be exerted on already stretched resources. This will in provide a unique opportunity to monitor sources, transport and sinks
turn exacerbate the climate change signals already being observed. of air pollution over Kenya.
Effective urban planning could nevertheless help to reduce urban
Rainfall is also projected to increase with many models indicating
environmental degradation.
an intensification of heavy rainfall especially during the wet seasons,
The country’s growing motor vehicle numbers are commensurate and an associated flood risk. Seasonal rainfall trends are mixed, with
with growths in the human population. Vehicles emit significant levels some locations indicating increasing trends while others show no
of air pollutants, including GHGs while charcoal burning emits methane significant changes. The annual rainfall totals show either neutral or
(CH4), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter into the atmosphere. slightly decreasing trends due to a general decline in the main long
These, together with rising industrial emissions, use of charcoal and rains (MAM) season.
wood fuel and open burning of waste, are some of the main sources
There are indications of sea level rise along the coast. This has
of atmospheric pollution. Figure 3.8 shows variability of average
the potential to inundate agricultural lands and cause groundwater
monthly ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) at the Mount Kenya
salinity. These effects will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced
Global Atmosphere (GAW) station. The ozone and carbon monoxide
pressures on coastal areas. Sea level rises will also increase the impact
average values range between 20-50 ppb and 50-150 respectively.
of storm surges which have the potential to devastate the coastal
These patterns are consistent with the prevailing wind patterns and
infrastructure. Evidence of the sea level rise is illustrated in Figure 3.9.

50
(a) likely to stunt long-term growth (SEI 2009). Although Vision 2030
recognizes that the key sectors of the economy are heavily weather-
dependent, it does not contain an in-depth discussion of the effects
of climate change and variability on the numerous set of goals under
the economic, social and political pillars. The current and emerging
climate-related hazards need to be researched and managed to
minimize their negative impacts and to take advantage of the
opportunities they present. In addition, there is urgent need to address
the potential inconsistencies in the adaptation and mitigation strategies
to climate change by shifting from a sectoral perspective to a holistic
and integrated approach (Mickwitz 2009).
(b) Agriculture and food security
Rain-fed agriculture—which accounts for 98 percent of the agricultural
activities in the country (UNEP 2009)—is the backbone of Kenya’s
economy and is very vulnerable to increasing temperatures, droughts
and floods, which reduce productivity. Drought results in agricultural
losses, reduction in water quality and availability and is a major driver
of food insecurity. On the other hand, floods lead to large-scale crop
destruction, and devastation of food stores, farming equipment as
well as erosion of agricultural land. Perennial floods in the Nyando
River catchment alone have, for example, put KSh 1.16 billion worth
of livestock at risk in the lower reaches of the Nyakach, Miwani and
Figure 3.8: Climatology of carbon monoxide (a) and Ozone (b) at Source: Henne et al. 2008
Nyando Divisions (Ochola 2009).
Mount Kenya GAW station for the period 2002-2008

Increasing temperatures are also likely to affect the growing of

major crops such as tea in the country (Otto 1999). As is shown in
3 050 Figures 3.10, traditional tea growing areas are expected to become
y=1.9621x - 533.43
3 000 less suitable for growing the crop if the average temperature rises by
2º C or more. This will threaten the livelihoods of the tea farmers,
2 950
processors and exporters and by implication, the attainment of
Sea Level (mm)

2 900 Vision 2030 goals.

2 850
A tea plantationin the Nandi District.

2 800

2 750

2 700
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Year

Figure 3.9: Sea level trend at Mombasa Coast Source: KMRFI

Impacts on systems and sectors in Kenya

Climate change and variability present a number of economic, social
and environmental challenges and opportunities to Kenya that should
be addressed and harnessed to avoid slowing development gains or
hampering attainment of Vision 2030. Some of these challenges include
increases in the incidences of waterborne and water related diseases,
crop destruction by excessive and erratic rainfall, escalation of pests
as well as crop and livestock diseases. Other impacts include water
scarcity which may foment natural resources conflict, food insecurity
and malnutrition. Unless remedial measures are taken, this is likely to
adversely affect the attainment of Vision 2030 because the key sectors
Christian Lambrechts/UNEP

of Kenya’s economy, including agriculture, horticulture, hydro-energy

generation, transport, and tourism are extremely climate-sensitive.

The continued annual burden of these extreme climatic events

carries large economic costs which could be as high as US$ 500 million
per year, which is equivalent to around 2 percent of the GDP and is
51
 Present Temperature
Box 3.2: Impacts of climate change on the
livestock industry
Eldoret
Livestock dynamics in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of
Kisumu ! Mount Kenya have been widely researched (McCabe 1987). Droughts
Nakuru Kenya
Kericho particularly hit the ASALs hard because they reduce the availability
of forage, increase disease incidences and lead to a breakdown of
Aberdare
Range marketing infrastructure. Although there have been 28 droughts
NAIROBI in the area over the past century, four have struck in the past
Tea Growing 100
decade alone, causing significant livestock losses and pushing
0 50
Area Kilometres many families into the poverty bracket. Plans are underway to offer
Very good A temperature rise of 2ºC livestock insurance to herders in northern Kenya in a pioneering
project that will use satellite imagery of available grazing to
Fair to good
determine when and what amount of payouts occur. The scheme
Not Suitable Eldoret was launched in Marsabit district in 2010 where pastoralists
keep more than 2 million cows, camels, goats and sheep worth
Mount
Kisumu ! Nakuru Kenya
an estimated US $67 million. These pastoralists however do not
Kericho have the means to rebuild herds decimated by drought. Under
Aberdare a new scheme administered by Equity Bank and UAP insurance,
Range around 1 000 farming households are expected to pay insurance
NAIROBI premiums ranging from 3.25 percent to 5.5 percent of the value
\
0 50 100
of their herds to cover them for a year. Eagle Africa Insurance also
Kilometres
provides a similar livestock insurance scheme.
Figure 3.10: Potential impact of temperature rise of 2ºC on tea Source: Otto 1999
growing in Kenya
climate-related information provided that this is communicated in a
Climate change also compounds persistent development manner and language that they understand (KMD 2009). The importance
challenges such as population dynamics, land fragmentation, migration of using appropriate communication methods was highlighted by the
of people into sparser and drier lowland areas, inadequate infrastructure poor maize yields recorded in Machakos district during seasons when
and provision of social services (Awuor 2008, Wandiga et al 2008, above-average rainfall was recorded (Rao and Okwach 2005) as shown
CCCCD and IISD 2009). Further, along with other factors like human in Figure 3.11. This could be attributed to continued use of low-yielding
population growth, poor soil management, and deforestation (Batiano and short maturing varieties or lack of access to capital, water or
et al 2006), it is a major cause of environmental degradation. In addition, appropriate agricultural inputs. The drop in yield from the mid-1990s
agricultural intensification has led to cultivation on marginal lands cannot be blamed on changing rainfall patterns (and therefore on
which typically record erratic rainfall and are therefore associated with climate change) although it could be attributed to land exhaustion
a high risk of crop failure (WRI et al 2007, NEMA 2007, UNEP 2009). and prohibitive farm input prices that necessitate the continued use
of low-yielding and short-maturing varieties. As such, it can be inferred
The National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS)
that climate change is often used as a scapegoat for poor crop
highlights various measures for adaptation and mitigation to the
husbandry. Table 3.1 contains reasons inhibiting the uptake of climate
impacts of climate change on agriculture (GoK 2010). These include
change adaptations.
use of a range of innovative technologies such as irrigation; early
maturing and high yielding crop varieties as well as drought and pest- Poor farming practises, such as cultivation on flood plains have
resistant crop varieties and disease-resistant livestock. The NCCRS also also increased the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to floods. The
advocates diversification of livelihoods; adaptation of agricultural resulting economic losses have been erroneously blamed on climate
technologies from analogue environments; and enhancing early change yet the underlying problem is ignoring the traditional buffer
warning systems with drought monitoring and seasonal forecasts with zones around protected communal areas.
respect to food security.
Table 3.1: Constraints on short-term climate change adaptation
(percent of households) Source: CEEPA 2006
A number of households already practise a range of adaptation
All High Medium
measures. The most popular of these is crop diversification or mixed Constraints faced (all regions)
regions potential potential
cropping adopted by 37 percent of all households, tree planting which Lack of information about
8 7 10
is used by 16 percent and irrigation which is employed by 10 percent short-term climate variation
of the households (CEEPA 2006). Adaptation interventions are becoming Lack of knowledge of
19 16 25
appropriate adaptations
increasingly innovative with private sector support. Box 3.2 highlights
Lack of credit or savings 59 56 64
some of these interventions in the livestock sector.
No access to water 8 12 3
The integration of indigenous and scientific knowledge can Lack of appropriate seed 5 4 6
enhance a community’s resilience to the impacts of climate change. Other constraints 13 12 14
Indeed, Kenyan farmers have demonstrated willingness to pay for No barriers to adaptation 8 9 8

52
 1.60 1 200
Maize yield
1.40 Rainfall
1 000
1.20
800

Rainfall (mm)
1.00

Yield (t/ha)
0.80 600

0.60
400
0.40
200
0.20

0.20 0

KMD
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
An example of good use of climate information for adaptation to climate change and variability. Year
This farmer (middle) was part of the small minority that registered a bumper maize harvest in the Figure 3.11: Five-year maize yields and observed rainfall in Machakos Source: Cooper 2008
2009 MAM season around Machakos despite poor rains (Source: KMD 2009).

varied by about 12 metres in the last century as shown in Figure 3.12

As agriculture is the leading sector of the Kenyan economy and
(Becht 2007). The country has also witnessed disappearance of some
the biggest source of employment, severe weather, extreme events
seasonal rivers and falling levels of permanent rivers.
and other climatic fluctuations are bound to adversely impact the
Nyando River, for instance, had low discharges for most of 2010,
delivery of Vision 2030 and could even reverse the gains made under
jeopardizing the viability of the rice irrigation schemes on the
the social and economic pillars of the long-term development blueprint.
Kano plains.
Water resources
Besides adversely affecting the water services sector, water scarcity
Kenya is classified as a chronically water-scarce country and has one impacts fisheries, agriculture and tourism. The 1998-2000 drought
of the world’s lowest water replenishment rates per capita (World Bank spell is estimated to have led to an economic loss of about US$ 2.8
2009). The combined effect of rising temperatures, more frequent billion emanating from the loss of crops and livestock, forest fires,
droughts and decreasing rainfall has led to lowering river, lake and damage to fisheries and reduced hydropower generation and industrial
groundwater levels. For instance, the water level in Lake Naivasha has activity. The 1997/98 floods affected almost 1 million people and were

Flooded maize farms due to encroachment of agricultural activities along the banks of River Nyando during the 2006/2007 flooding.

S. Ochola

53
53
 S. Ochola
A community water pan on the Kano plains which is used for livestock watering and domestic needs dries up.

1 893 of human, livestock and crop disease vectors. These factors have also
Calculated Lake level
1 892
1 891 contributed to the spread of alien invasive species. The change in the
Lake levels (m)

1 890 geographic distribution and migration of the anopheles mosquito to

1 889
the highland areas is, for example, exposing large numbers of people
1 888
1 887 to malaria (Chen et al 2007, Pascual et al 2006). Evidence of micro-
1 886 climate change due to land use changes, such as swamp reclamation
1 885
Observed Lake level for agricultural use and deforestation in the western Kenya highlands
1 884
has also increased the risk of malaria outbreaks (Munga et al 2006).
1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Time
During floods which destroy water and sanitation facilities,
Figure 3.12: Long-term change in the observed and Source: Becht 2007
environmental diseases such as typhoid, amoeba, cholera and bilharzia
modelled Lake Naivasha water level
—which are normally associated with contaminated water and poor
estimated to have cost the economy US $0.8-1.2 billion arising from sanitation—reach epidemic levels. The Nyanza, Western, Coast, Eastern
damage to infrastructure (roads, buildings and communication systems), and North Eastern provinces, for example, recorded several cholera
public health effects (including fatalities) and loss of crops. Widespread outbreaks during the 1997/1998 El-Niño rains. Further, amoebae thrive
flooding, property destruction, soil erosion, mudslides and landslides, in warmer waters and this may explain why amoeba infections have
surface and groundwater pollution and sedimentation of dams and risen steadily in areas that were historically cold but are now experiencing
water reservoirs led to losses amounting to US$ 9 million (Obati 2005). temperature rises, like Meru.
Development and implementation of mechanisms that help Air pollution as a result of rising fossil fuel combustion to meet
communities and individuals to mitigate and adapt to climate change the energy needs of a growing population, has resulted in increased
vulnerabilities should therefore be intensified (Charles et al 2010, frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases such as asthma. Increased
GoK 2010). morbidity affects the productivity of the population and slows economic
Health development. It also places further burdens on the country’s health
and social security services, which in turn necessitate larger budgetary
Global climate change affects human health through pathways of allocations. Hiving off large chunks of public finance for these services
varying complexity and scale and with different timing (McMichael however, reduces allocations to the wealth and job creating sectors
2003). The impacts vary geographically depending on the environment, of the economy, adversely affecting the attainment of Vision 2030.
topography and vulnerability of the local population. Climate change
and variability affect natural processes which in turn lead to an increased Human settlement
incidence of a range of diseases, such as asthma, malaria, diarrhoea, The manifestations of climate change and variability, including extreme
Rift Valley Fever and nutrition-related ailments. Figure 3.13 illustrates events such as storms, floods and prolonged droughts, have marked
the pathways through which climate change can affect human health. impacts on settlements and infrastructure (Magadza 2000). For instance,
Global warming and the considerably wetter conditions related sea level rise can result in the inundation of low-lying coastal lands
to climate variability-induced floods have expanded the habitat ranges and the destruction of the physical infrastructure of coastal areas. It

54
 ModulaƟng
inŇuences

Health eīects

Microbial Temperature-related
Regional weather contaminaƟon illness and death
changes pathways

Transmission Extreme weather-related

dynamics eīects
ͻHeatwaves

CLIMATE Air polluƟon-related

ͻExtreme weather
CHANGE Agro-ecosystems, health eīects
hydrology
ͻTemperature
Water and food-borne
diseases
ͻPrecipitaƟon
Socioeconomics,
demographics Vector-borne diseases

Eīects of food and water

Figure 3.13: Pathways by which climate change affects human health, including local moderating influences and the feedback influence of Source: Adapted from Patz 2000
adaptation measures

may also affect ecosystems such as mangroves and coral reefs, with The absence of land use planning and minimum building
negative consequences on the fisheries, health and tourism sectors. standards contributes to the high vulnerability of homesteads and
These in turn increase the physical and socio-economic vulnerability schools (Ochola 2009, Ochola et al 2010). Vulnerability to floods may
of coastal communities. also be due to lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography,
soil types and inadequate drainage (Ochola et al 2010). For example
Climate change impacts such as water stress, food insecurity and
in the Nyando River catchment area, only 12 percent of the primary
poverty could displace entire communities, turning them into
schools and 19 percent of the secondary schools were found not to
environmental refugees. These may migrate into new settlements or
be prone to flood risk (Ochola et al 2010). Kenya needs to align the
seek new livelihoods, putting more demand on infrastructure and
policies and plans for sustainable rural and urban planning in order to
causing or exacerbating environmental degradation. Droughts and
cater for the impacts of climate change. This is because planners play
floods are, for example, known to have contributed to family dislocation
a direct role in shaping and controlling land use and urban form which
and cultural erosion. Flash floods have triggered landslides in central
are significant determinants of a settlement’s adaptive capacity and
and western highlands, leading to loss of life and destruction of physical
resilience to climate change (UN HABITAT 2010). Figure 3.14 a and b
infrastructure. These impacts are often accompanied by health problems
shows the relationship between flood hazards and community
such as diarrhoea, cholera and malaria (Boko et al 2007).
vulnerability.
Figure 3.14: Flood hazard and vulnerability maps in the Nyando River catchment

(a) (b) Source: Ochola 2009

55
 Gender aspects of climate change opportunities but also help protect the natural resource base on which
many sectors of Kenya’s economy are based.
Because men and women play different roles at the household and
community levels, climate change affects each of these differently. Partnerships opportunities
Therefore, climate change has a disproportionately greater effect on
Partnerships for improved climate change management abound in
women because they carry a heavy work burden, interact with natural
the country. Key development partners have come together to form
resources a lot more and have limited mitigative and adaptive capacities.
a Donor Climate Change Coordination Group. They include the World
Climate change and variability are therefore likely to amplify existing
Bank, DANIDA, USAID, JICA, SIDA and FINNIDA. Through various
patterns of gender disadvantage (UNDP 2009). Analyzing climate
financing mechanisms, activities are supported at national and sub-
change through the gender lens is therefore important for a number
national levels. For instance, there are efforts to work with pastoralists
of reasons. First, recognition of how gender identities determine
communities in the ASALs for better rangeland management. This is
different vulnerabilities and capacities to deal with climate change
described in more detail in Box 3.3.
(Brody et al 2008) can help to attenuate its impacts. Figure 3.15 shows
some of the vulnerabilities of women to the impacts of climate change. Regional climate change partnerships exist under the auspices
Second, this approach can be helpful in designing and implementing of the EAC, COMESA, IGAD and AU. These seek to enhance resource
policies, programmes and projects that lead to greater gender equity mobilization, mitigation and adaptation, capacity building and
and equality. In particular, it may contribute to enhancing capacity to technology transfer. The EAC Climate Change Policy and Master Plan
mitigate and adapt to climate change because it takes cognizance of provides a number of guidelines that partner states and other
the relations men and women have with natural resources and stakeholders can use in the preparation and implementation of
ecosystems. collective measures to address climate change. COMESA operates a
carbon fund that encompasses a range of climate change initiatives
Opportunities and endowment value in carbon sequestration such as clean energy, forestry, conservation
of climate change agriculture, land use and other low carbon projects such as the Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). The 13th
Kenya is endowed with diverse and abundant climatic resources which
AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government, held in Libya in 2009,
include solar insolation, sunshine, wind, rainfall and air. These resources
approved the Conference of African Heads of State and Governments
which provide life-supporting goods and services are however not
on Climate Change (CAHOSCC). It aims to present a united position in
evenly distributed throughout the country with some regions being
global climate change negotiations and interventions. The African
better endowed with more of a particular resource than others. Rainfall
Ministers’ Conference on the Environment (AMCEN) also addresses
plays a critical role in supporting life and is the main source of water
climate change-related developments and environmental initiatives.
resources (surface and ground) that sustain humans, animals and plants
and are indispensable for rain-fed agriculture and industrial activities. Some of the ongoing regional projects in Kenya for climate
Rainfall also replenishes the dams that are used to produce the country’s change include:
hydro electric power. Most of the streams that flow downstream into
• Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) that focuses on
the dams that are used for hydropower generation originate in the
research and capacity development to improve the capacity of
country’s highlands, some of which receive more than 1000 mm of
vulnerable communities to adapt to climate change.
annual rainfall. Solar insolation provides natural light and energy while
sunshine and wind can be used to generate electricity. The ASALs, • The Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP) which aims to strengthen
which constitute 80 percent of the country’s land mass, experience Kenya’s institutional and systemic capacity to implement the
long hours of sunshine which typically amount to over 7 hours a day. NCCRS and to address climate change risks and opportunities
These accordingly have enormous potential for solar energy generation through a national approach to adaptation.
with the highest potential being in north western Kenya in Lodwar.
• Kenya Adaptation to Climate Change in Arid and semi-arid Lands
High speed winds are generally common in northern Kenya (around
(KACCAL) which aims to facilitate long-term adaptation of the
Marsabit), the coastal zone, Maralal, Keiyo, Eldoret and Ngong Hills
key stakeholders in the ASALs to climate change.
with these areas being ideal for wind power generation.
Kenya is signatory to and has ratified a number of MEAs including
These resources can be optimally tapped with better-informed
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
resource user and producer groups (Vogel and O’Brien 2006). It is
(UNFCCC). Kenya’s commitments under the UNFCCC include: periodic
therefore important for Kenya to build on the gains made under the
updates and publication for inventories of anthropogenic GHG
NCCRS by developing a comprehensive national climate change policy
emissions, implementation of national and regional mitigation and
and action plan. This will stimulate investment in programmes and
adaptation programmes. So far, only the First National Communication
businesses that mitigate against or adapt to the effects of climate
to UNFCCC was submitted in 2002. The main challenge is the limited
change and variability. A national climate change policy would also
capacity to domesticate and share information among stakeholders.
provide a framework for government, private sector, civil society and
Articles 4-7 of the UNFCCC present opportunities for Kenya to access
other stakeholders’ participation to integrate climate change
international funding through the Global Environment Facility (GEF)
considerations into development planning and implementation at
for inventorying GHG emissions, technology development, transfer
various levels. This would lead to positive outcomes for the environment
and diffusion; capacity building; adaptation; mitigation; research;
and Vision 2030 because the climate change mitigative and adaptive
training, education and public awareness. Further, under Article 12 of
mechanisms would create considerable business and employment

56
 Impacts on human security Vulnerability of women
Box 3.3: Poverty Reduction and Additional Income
Household food provision;
CROP FAILURE Generation through Trading Carbon Embedded in
increased agricultural work
Rangelands—Support to Laikipia Wildlife Forum
Household fuel provision;
FUEL SHORTAGE ĨŽŽĚͲĨƵĞůĐŽŶŇŝĐƚƐ
The challenge for any sustainable poverty reduction measures
for the poor and marginalized communities in the arid and
Household water provision;
SHORTAGE OF SAFE,
exposure to contaminated sources
semi-arid lands (ASALs) is the creation of income generating
CLEAN WATER
opportunities. Setting aside land for tourism and wildlife can
Climate Change Economic drawbacks; lack provide additional, but limited, income. One asset that has yet
of land tenure; resource-dependent
RESOURCE SCARCITY livelihoods; school dropouts, early to be fully exploited is the value of the carbon embedded in
marriage
ASALs and forestry systems.
Greater incidence of mortality;
NATURAL DISASTERS ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶŽĨůŝĨĞĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐLJ Traditionally the nomadic tribes of the ASALs regions have
followed the rains. However, increasing pressure for agricultural
Lack of access to healthcare; land and rising populations have placed a great strain on the
DISEASE increased burden of caring for
young, sick and elderly ability of the remaining grasslands to support their herds. Dry
land grazing areas are now being used throughout the year,
Loss of livelihoods; lack of
DISPLACEMT ĂĚĞƋƵĂƚĞƐŚĞůƚĞƌ͖ĐŽŶŇŝĐƚƐ further straining already damaged ecosystems.

Loss of livelihoods and Wildlife sanctuaries offer some respite, but there is a
lives; sexual violence and
limit to how much can be set aside. In an effort to redress this
CIVIL WAR/CONFLICT trauma
situation many Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and
Figure 3.15: Vulnerability of women to impacts of climate change Source: WEDO 2007
Community Based Organisations (CBOs) are advising pastoralist
the Kyoto Protocol, resources can be accessed under the Clean communities on improved management techniques. One such
Development Mechanism (CDM). However, only three CDM projects methodology is known as Holistic Management. The technique
have been registered in Kenya. These are Ol Karia II Geothermal was first “developed” in Zimbabwe some 20 years ago, though in
Expansion project; Ol Karia III Phase II Geothermal Expansion project; truth it has been used by the traditional pastoralists of East and
and Lake Turkana 310 MW Wind Power project (UNFCCC 2011). A key Central Africa for millennia. The net result of this technique is an
concern however it that although the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment increase in biomass leading to better grazing, higher stocking
period expires in 2012, there is neither firm international commitment rates and higher levels of carbon sequestration.
to extend it nor a successor mechanism in place.
The Sanctuary at Ol Lentille (2), situated about 75km North
An initial estimate of immediate needs for addressing current of Nanyuki, was started in 2006 with the Kijabe Group Ranch
and future climate change impacts is US $500 million per year. The setting aside about 2 000 hectares of their 6 000 hectare group
cost of climate change adaptation alone could increase to between ranch. It has since been expanded, now incorporating some
$1-2 billion per year (SEI 2009) by 2030. Clearly, effective mitigation 5000 hectares, and will eventually grow to 14 000 hectares. At
and adaptation mechanisms need to be devised urgently if Kenya is its full extent the Sanctuary will be the guardian for land set
to remain on course to accomplishing the social and economic targets aside from 5 group ranches covering approximately 80 000
specified in Vision 2030. The urgency with which these remedial hectares, with the potential to benefit the lives of over 70 000
measures should be instituted is informed by the stark projection by people.
the Stern Report that climate change could cost African countries in
The project seeks to ascertain the value of carbon in the
excess of 20 percent of GDP per year by 2100 (Stern 2006).
soils of the sanctuary and the neighbouring group ranches.
Integrating climate into policy and governance It will also establish modules that can be used to monitor
and verify the carbon sequestered on a year by year basis.
Climate change policy integration consist of three main components:
Working closely with existing NGOs and CBOs it will assist in
incorporation of climate change mitigation and adaptation
establishing community based savings societies to ensure any
considerations into all stages of policy making; attempts to aggregate
funds generated from carbon sales are effectively used within
expected consequences of climate change mitigation and adaptation
the communities. Finally, it will identify markets and facilitate
into the overall evaluation policy; and a commitment to minimize
efforts that will enable the communities to trade this carbon.
contradictions between climate change policies and other policies
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark (MFA)
(Lafferty and Hovden 2003, Underdal 1980). Mainstreaming climate
issues into the Kenya government’s programmes is important given
that climate is a major driver of the economic activities—such as
change mitigation and adaptation mechanisms into the national
agriculture and tourism—that are central to the achievement of Vision
development agenda. Besides formulating a national climate change
2030.
policy and climate change law that would consolidate the gains made
Currently, there are no policy-level instruments that specifically by the NCCRS (which is a strategy and not a policy), there is need to
deal with climate change. EMCA 1999 does not mention climate change integrate climate change considerations into all government planning,
while there is little express reference to the phenomenon in Vision budgeting and development processes at the national and county
2030. Policy strategies and instruments are thus needed to build climate government levels.
57
 Local opportunities presented by climate change taking full advantage of this opportunity as it would make tapping
this source of energy more affordable. Because many households may
The envisaged opportunities are numerous and include but are not
be unable to afford individual systems, community-level systems could
limited to the following:
prove to be more viable. Hybrid energy systems that couple wind
Rainwater harvesting turbines with conventional generators may be used to mitigate against
wind intermittency in order to ensure constant energy supply.
Collecting rainwater for drinking, livestock and domestic use is an
established practise in Africa (UNEP 2006). It is also common in Kenya Solar energy
and its popularity is growing. Rainwater is an increasingly promising
Solar power could improve the percentage of households with lighting
complement to other sources of household water, especially in the
and power, and increase livelihood and educational opportunities. It
face of increasing scarcity and rising demand. Kenya is already facing
is primarily suitable for meeting small-scale energy needs for isolated
a water crisis so rainwater harvesting is expected to enhance access
off-grid communities. It is able to light up houses, power and charge
to potable water.
electronic equipment, telecommunication devices, and meet the needs
Population growth and reduced rainfall have combined to make of schools and community health centres.
the traditional rain collection methods insufficient. There is need to
Natural solar drying of foodstuffs such as grains and tubers is
employ new, more efficient collection and storage techniques. These
commonly used to preserve and prepare food for milling in Kenya.
may include use of roof catchments and collection in plastic or concrete
However, current practises do not make efficient use of the available
tanks. Metal tanks are not recommended as they corrode. With the use
solar heat. Investment in the appropriate technology would create
of appropriate technologies, rainwater could also play a bigger role in
new business opportunities in the manufacturing and marketing
irrigation and combating the effects of drought. However, appropriate
sectors and diversify income-generating opportunities. There is
technologies will need to be made widely available.
potential to develop and widely use solar drying systems for the
Conservation agriculture preservation of food which is an important part of the food security
strategies. Clean energy increases participation in global business
Conservation agriculture is one of the approaches that are envisaged
(where goods’ environmental friendliness is coming under increasing
to climate-proof agriculture. Given the significant role that agriculture
scrutiny), improves income, enhances development and reduces air
plays in the country’s economy, in Kenyans’ livelihoods and in the
pollution. However, the high prices of solar photovoltaic equipment
attainment of Vision 2030, conservation agriculture is an important
have significantly contributed to low sales and poor adoption by the
climate change adaptation method. It involves minimizing soil
less affluent households which are also more likely to be off-grid.
disturbance (no-till), ensuring permanent soil cover (mulch) and using
a blend of crop rotation or inter-cropping (FAO 2006). The synergy of Science and technology
these factors leads to improved agricultural productivity and food
If the atmospheric resources are to be effectively harnessed in order
security, increased incomes and enhanced carbon sequestration. The
to meet the ambitious targets outlined in Vision 2030, it is important
government, with the support of the COMESA Secretariat, has concluded
for the country to invest in broadening and strengthening the requisite
the design of an Investment Framework for up-scaling conservation
scientific and technological capacity. This is in recognition of the useful
agriculture. The framework is anchored on both the NCCRS and the
but insufficient role indigenous knowledge and traditional coping
Agricultural Sector Development Strategy.
strategies play in mitigating against and adapting to climate change
Clean energy and variability. Global and regional (COMESA, EAC and IGAD)
partnerships in training and research can help to improve the degree
Clean and renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, can power
to which appropriate technologies and innovations in climate change
small-scale rural industries and hence improve livelihoods. Harnessing
adaptation and mitigation are harnessed to meet the far-reaching
them can also help to reduce reliance on hydro electric power whose
challenges in the agricultural, forestry and business sectors.
generation is particularly prone to climate change stressors. They can
also enhance reliability of the national electricity supply and lower Conclusion and recommendations
costs of electricity to the productive sectors, which will in turn help to
Kenya, like the rest of the world, is experiencing adverse impacts of
achieve the economic goals of Vision 2030. For instance, access to
climate change and variability. These have exacerbated environmental
electricity would reduce the time rural women and girls spend in search
degradation, reduced agricultural production and food security,
of wood fuel and water, and improve school enrolment and retention
increased incidences of flooding, landslides, droughts, disease
rates for the girl child.
epidemics, led to the destruction of physical infrastructure and
Wind energy heightened the risk of natural resource conflicts. While vulnerability
to these impacts is differentiated and context-specific, it has the
Marsabit, Ngong, Maralal, Eldoret and the coastal areas which have
potential to result in significant economic costs that can derail
frequent high speed winds are ideal locations for tapping wind energy
attainment of the Vision 2030 goals.
which can be used for powering small-scale industries and water
pumping. Despite the existence of wind turbines at Ngong and Marsabit, The development of the NCCRS provides a broad coordinated
the full potential of this resource is yet to be exploited. Investment in framework for government, private sector, civil society and other
local capacity to plan, design and construct wind mills is essential to stakeholders to integrate climate change and variability considerations

58
into national development planning and implementation at various • Enhance communication of climate change adaptation and
levels. While the trajectories of future climate change and variability mitigation programmes at the national, county and community
impacts in Kenya are uncertain, there is need to institute robust levels in order to upscale monitoring and reporting.
strategies to prepare for the uncertain future rather than using
• Develop a database of experts on the various aspects of
uncertainty as a reason for inaction. In addition to formulating a national
climate change and variability in order to enhance networking,
climate change policy and enacting a climate change law, there is need
information exchange and avoid duplication.
to implement the following recommendations:
• Use a number of policy and financial instruments to
• Identify potential opportunities presented by climate change
encourage use of alternative, cleaner sources of energy that
and variability (such as emissions trading) and tap these.
are gentler on the world’s climate systems. These could consist
• Establish specialized institutions and centres of excellence of command and control legal provisions, taxes that are
that will enable Kenya to enunciate the science-policy nexus, predicated on the ‘polluter pays’ principle, green budgeting and
and allocate funds to adequately research feasible mitigation a range of fiscal incentives.
and adaptation mechanisms.

• Develop early warning systems and link climate change and

disaster risk reduction at all levels.

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