Analyse financière et évaluation d'entreprise
Analyse financière et évaluation d'entreprise
data)
I. Income Statement
Current EBIT = $ (146.84)
Current Interest Expense = $ 0.92
Current Capital Spending $ 105.41
Current Depreciation and Amortization $ 10.62
Current Revenues = $ 116.74
II. Balance Sheet This period Last period
Current Non-cash Working Capital = $ 22.94 $ 11.62
Book Value of Debt = $ 71.83 0
Book Value of Equity = $ 72.13 -253.523
Cash & Marketable Securities = $ 173.16
Non-operating Assets $ 22.73
III. Tax Information
NOL carried forward = $ 141.00
Marginal tax rate = 40.00%
General Information
Current long term government bond rate = 3.50%
Estimated Market Risk Premium = 5.00%
Relative Valuation
If you want to do a relative valuation of your firm, enter these inputs:
Year on which multiple is to be applied = 10
Value to Sales multiple in that year = 0.82
data)
Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Revenue Growth Rate 150.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00%
Revenues $117 $292 $584 $1,051 $1,681 $2,354 $3,060 $3,672 $4,222 $4,645 $4,877
Operating Margin -69.28% -42.86% -25.24% -13.49% -5.66% -0.44% 3.04% 5.36% 6.91% 7.94% 8.63%
EBIT -$81 -$125 -$147 -$142 -$95 -$10 $93 $197 $292 $369 $421
Taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $116 $168
EBIT(1-t) -$81 -$125 -$147 -$142 -$95 -$10 $93 $197 $292 $253 $252
+ Depreciation $41 $66 $93 $121 $145 $166 $183 $192 $199 $206 $213
- Capital Expenditure $198 $119 $181 $262 $336 $370 $397 $378 $366 $334 $283
- Chg WC $11 $34 $57 $92 $124 $132 $139 $120 $108 $83 $46
FCFF -$249 -$213 -$293 -$375 -$410 -$347 -$260 -$109 $16 $42 $136
NOL $141 $266 $413 $555 $650 $661 $568 $371 $79 $0 $0
Terminal Value
Computed Variables (These are measures of how efficiently your firm is investing over time)
Total Capital Invested $ 311.00 $ 399 $ 544 $ 778 $ 1,093 $ 1,429 $ 1,782 $ 2,088 $ 2,364 $ 2,575 $ 2,691
Reinvestment Rate NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Increase in Revenue/Increase in Capital 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Return on Capital -40.22% -36.96% -26.03% -12.23% -0.95% 6.51% 11.04% 13.96% 10.70% 9.80%
The Valuation
PV of FCFF during high growth phase = $ (1,300)
PV of Terminal Value = $ 2,840
Value of Operating Assets of the firm = $ 1,540
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $ 195.89
Value of Firm = $ 1,736
- Value of Outstanding Debt = $ 110
Value of Equity = $ 1,626
- Value of Equity Options = $ 328
Value of Equity in Common Stock = $ 1,299 Treasury Stock Approach
Value of Equity per share = $ 13.58 $ 15.95
Summary Output
Revenues $292 $584 $1,051 $1,681 $2,354 $3,060 $3,672 $4,222 $4,645 $4,877 $5,047
EBIT -$125 -$147 -$142 -$95 -$10 $93 $197 $292 $369 $421 $505
EBIT(1-t) -$125 -$147 -$142 -$95 -$10 $93 $197 $292 $253 $252 $303
- Reinvestment $88 $146 $233 $315 $336 $353 $306 $275 $211 $116 $106
FCFF -$213 -$293 -$375 -$410 -$347 -$260 -$109 $16 $42 $136 $197
Terminal Year
3.50%
$5,047
10.00%
$505
$202
$303
$220
$293
$34
$197
$0
$7,158
40.00%
35.00%
0.90
8.00%
5.00%
3.00%
6.25%
$ 2,797
35.00%
1.61
10.00%
Relative Valuation Output
Year in which multiple is used = 10 Year
Value to Sales Ratio for Specialty retailers= 0.82 1
2
Revenue in chosen year = $ 4,877 3
Value in chosen year = $ 3,999 4
Cost of capital in chosen yea 2.5206 5
Value today = $ 1,586 6
+ Cash & Securities = $ 196 7
- Debt outstanding = $ 110 8
-Equity options outstanding $ 328 9
Value of Equity in stock = $ 1,345 10
Value per share = $ 14.06
1950.8
Revenues Cumulated Cost of Capital
$ 292 110.89%
$ 584 122.96%
$ 1,051 136.34%
$ 1,681 151.18%
$ 2,354 167.64%
$ 3,060 184.57%
$ 3,672 202.11%
$ 4,222 220.07%
$ 4,645 237.23%
$ 4,877 252.06%
Company Market Value Percent Owned
Operating Lease Converter
Inputs
Operating lease expense in current year = $ -
Operating Lease Commitments (From footnote to financials)
Year Commitment ! Year 1 is next year, ….
1 $ 6.79
2 $ 6.63
3 $ 6.56
4 $ 6.43
5 $ 5.89
6 and beyond $ 21.13
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 11.00% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the ratings estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 estimate = 4 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 6.79 $ 6.12
2 $ 6.63 $ 5.38
3 $ 6.56 $ 4.80
4 $ 6.43 $ 4.24
5 $ 5.89 $ 3.50
6 and beyond $ 5.28 $ 9.72 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $ 33.75
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 3.75 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $3.71 ! PV of operating leases * Pre-tax cost o
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $ 33.75
verter
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expenses 5 ! If in doubt, use the lookup tab
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $ 93.00 The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 19.30 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 49.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 60.50
-4 25.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 93.00 1.00 93.00
-1 19.30 0.80 15.44 $ 3.86
-2 49.00 0.60 29.40 $ 9.80
-3 60.50 0.40 24.20 $ 12.10
-4 25.00 0.20 5.00 $ 5.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = $167.04 $ 30.76
Adjustment to Operating Income = $62.24 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to repo
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $25
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize these expenses 10
Enter the current year's operating expense = $ - The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter operating expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year Operating Expenses
-1 0.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 0.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 0.00
-4 0.00
-5 0.00
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 0.00 1.00 0.00
-1 0.00 0.90 0.00 $ -
-2 0.00 0.80 0.00 $ -
-3 0.00 0.70 0.00 $ -
-4 0.00 0.60 0.00 $ -
-5 0.00 0.50 0.00 $ -
-6 0.00 0.40 0.00 $ -
-7 0.00 0.30 0.00 $ -
-8 0.00 0.20 0.00 $ -
-9 0.00 0.10 0.00 $ -
-10 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Expensing Asset = $0.00 $ -
Adjustment to Operating Income = $0.00 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add
Tax Effect of Expensing $0
ments to operating income, net
d1 = 1.6781204814
N (d1) = 0.9533382094
d2 = -0.0696912934
N (d2) = 0.4722196859
Computed Variables (These are measures of how efficiently your firm is investing over time)
Total Capital Invested $ 311.00 $ 399 $ 544 $ 778 $ 1,093
Reinvestment Rate NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF
Increase in Revenue/Increase in Capital 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Return on Capital -40.22% -36.96% -26.03% -12.23%
The Valuation
PV of FCFF during high growth phase = $ (1,300)
PV of Terminal Value = $ 2,840
Value of Operating Assets of the firm = $ 1,540
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $ 195.89
Value of Firm = $ 1,736
- Value of Outstanding Debt = $ 110
Value of Equity = $ 1,626
- Value of Equity Options = $ 197
Value of Equity in Common Stock = $ 1,430 Treasury Stock Approach
Value of Equity per share = $ 14.95 $ 15.95
Summary Output
Revenues $292 $584 $1,051 $1,681 $2,354
EBIT -$125 -$147 -$142 -$95 -$10
EBIT(1-t) -$125 -$147 -$142 -$95 -$10
- Reinvestment $88 $146 $233 $315 $336
FCFF -$213 -$293 -$375 -$410 -$347
5 6 7 8 9 10 Terminal Year
40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 4%
$2,354 $3,060 $3,672 $4,222 $4,645 $4,877 $5,047
-0.44% 3.04% 5.36% 6.91% 7.94% 8.63% 10.00%
-$10 $93 $197 $292 $369 $421 $505
$0 $0 $0 $0 $116 $168 $202
-$10 $93 $197 $292 $253 $252 $303
$166 $183 $192 $199 $206 $213 $220
$370 $397 $378 $366 $334 $283 $293
$132 $139 $120 $108 $83 $46 $34
-$347 -$260 -$109 $16 $42 $136 $197
$661 $568 $371 $79 $0 $0 $0
$7,158
ry Output
$3,060 $3,672 $4,222 $4,645 $4,877 $5,047
$93 $197 $292 $369 $421 $505
$93 $197 $292 $253 $252 $303
$353 $306 $275 $211 $116 $106
-$260 -$109 $16 $42 $136 $197