Ámbito Indicador Unidad 1992-1 1992-2 1992-3 1992-4 1992-5 1992-6 1992-7

Total Nacional
Total de prToneladas 40932 36866 25996 16708 23871 31314 39689

Fuente(s):
Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego.
1992-8 1992-9 1992-10 1992-11 1992-12 1993-1 1993-2 1993-3 1993-4 1993-5
45143 45429 46079 42761 43719 39213 30590 23233 16139 18218
1993-6 1993-7 1993-8 1993-9 1993-10 1993-11 1993-12 1994-1 1994-2 1994-3
18734 29121 34631 42114 45700 50952 51541 44251 38328 31356
1994-4 1994-5 1994-6 1994-7 1994-8 1994-9 1994-10 1994-11 1994-12 1995-1
17403 33736 42130 47812 61257 51700 59644 58835 55545 48890
1995-2 1995-3 1995-4 1995-5 1995-6 1995-7 1995-8 1995-9 1995-10 1995-11
45821 46568 40809 31923 45508 59953 67445 60418 63722 65522
1995-12 1996-1 1996-2 1996-3 1996-4 1996-5 1996-6 1996-7 1996-8 1996-9
64678 54840 51437 44452 28621 32046 34450 50223 60298 60693
1996-10 1996-11 1996-12 1997-1 1997-2 1997-3 1997-4 1997-5 1997-6 1997-7
63684 63738 63088 58283 57455 54514 49611 51870 59680 57534
1997-8 1997-9 1997-10 1997-11 1997-12 1998-1 1998-2 1998-3 1998-4 1998-5
56173 61820 59423 55186 52784 37936 21085 13004 16274 25598
1998-6 1998-7 1998-8 1998-9 1998-10 1998-11 1998-12 1999-1 1999-2 1999-3
33819 46477 52966 48929 48894 55035 49565 43322 37215 41033
1999-4 1999-5 1999-6 1999-7 1999-8 1999-9 1999-10 1999-11 1999-12 2000-1
35637 45074 45897 50167 53322 60429 66628 63068 61296 60396.38
2000-2 2000-3 2000-4 2000-5 2000-6 2000-7 2000-8 2000-9 2000-10 2000-11
61596.81 53630.03 33385.19 48960.52 60098.06 56498.58 63597.53 63457.41 72370.76 76914.05
2000-12 2001-1 2001-2 2001-3 2001-4 2001-5 2001-6 2001-7 2001-8 2001-9
73190.54 55348.75 61053.74 49216.01 45774.45 42577.5 54235.96 65159.42 78296.69 74757.4
2001-10 2001-11 2001-12 2002-1 2002-2 2002-3 2002-4 2002-5 2002-6 2002-7
80746.07 73128.23 79640.44 73028 63257.59 63967.49 54276.29 55725.39 71441.2 75375.94
2002-8 2002-9 2002-10 2002-11 2002-12 2003-1 2003-2 2003-3 2003-4 2003-5
86042.82 83771.32 85824.02 81279.76 83597.89 75812.58 64683.49 76967.81 61901.95 80184.79
2003-6 2003-7 2003-8 2003-9 2003-10 2003-11 2003-12 2004-1 2004-2 2004-3
84496.26 82153.22 83951.3 80683.23 91208.17 85970.85 90793.9 70762.53 54918.88 61402.86
2004-4 2004-5 2004-6 2004-7 2004-8 2004-9 2004-10 2004-11 2004-12 2005-1
49136.2 64469.31 59344.71 59936.2 59240.21 61347.26 66519.39 72835.42 67658.33 51941.66
2005-2 2005-3 2005-4 2005-5 2005-6 2005-7 2005-8 2005-9 2005-10 2005-11
51159.5 45758.71 42378.59 43566.99 50405.7 63515.8 61848.1 62803.64 68920.5 74486.46
2005-12 2006-1 2006-2 2006-3 2006-4 2006-5 2006-6 2006-7 2006-8 2006-9
77813.11 58574.76 70179.72 53007.47 31107.51 61157.25 52503.74 69523.85 74679.51 74107.34
2006-10 2006-11 2006-12 2007-1 2007-2 2007-3 2007-4 2007-5 2007-6 2007-7
88769.82 82908.46 88613.3 71650.43 61850.89 56825.63 35047.96 59448.64 81227.51 85502.92
 Total de producción de azúcar nacional

2007-8 2007-9 2007-10 2007-11 2007-12 2008-1 2008-2 2008-3 2008-4 2008-5
91065.39 85901.24 102134.3 88716.77 96263.93 85589.83 67269.05 66684.35 65023.61 66996.28
2008-6 2008-7 2008-8 2008-9 2008-10 2008-11 2008-12 2009-1 2009-2 2009-3
80221.14 87013.21 92336.04 92321.24 104076.6 98920.38 100717.9 87037.53 90040.63 85250.7
2009-4 2009-5 2009-6 2009-7 2009-8 2009-9 2009-10 2009-11 2009-12 2010-1
73317.81 66110.24 68345.19 93219.08 93503.21 89326.97 105844 105952.7 106551.2 87432.69
2010-2 2010-3 2010-4 2010-5 2010-6 2010-7 2010-8 2010-9 2010-10 2010-11
65193 76170.8 70903.4 70341.91 83600.28 90478.9 100283.6 94738.32 92103.59 103101.8
2010-12 2011-1 2011-2 2011-3 2011-4 2011-5 2011-6 2011-7 2011-8 2011-9
103827.7 89601.81 70243.91 93199.5 77843.43 79763.68 70783.94 80603.45 101789 90084.2
2011-10 2011-11 2011-12 2012-1 2012-2 2012-3 2012-4 2012-5 2012-6 2012-7
103618.8 106149.1 112533.9 90414.28 77246.18 85490.11 73425.45 71009.1 68111.13 81377.06
2012-8 2012-9 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-1 2013-2 2013-3 2013-4 2013-5
108801.2 111137.4 112335.1 118720.7 108212.2 91108.03 92478.9 76980.22 95550.26 95536.52
2013-6 2013-7 2013-8 2013-9 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12 2014-1 2014-2 2014-3
88951.38 71652.12 102139.1 115160.2 113974.9 112802.9 117733.7 96414.09 98057.24 94662.45
2014-4 2014-5 2014-6 2014-7 2014-8 2014-9 2014-10 2014-11 2014-12 2015-1
98504.08 96607.42 78672.28 72046.5 105153.9 112545.8 117598.9 115818.9 117410.2 90186.49
2015-2 2015-3 2015-4 2015-5 2015-6 2015-7 2015-8 2015-9 2015-10 2015-11
88257.96 82019.81 68449.88 59847.27 80104.8 76098.21 103363.5 103898.8 124842.2 117930.5
2015-12 2016-1 2016-2 2016-3 2016-4 2016-5 2016-6 2016-7 2016-8 2016-9
124404.1 110748.8 88611.17 61944.05 53462.1 57751.84 95946.46 124994.3 114941.2 115863.4
2016-10 2016-11 2016-12 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2017-4 2017-5 2017-6 2017-7
109218.8 107510.5 107328.5 102966.1 77377.83 34164.56 59208.75 77141.65 68912.18 93987.41
2017-8 2017-9 2017-10 2017-11 2017-12 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2018-4 2018-5
111052.3 120095.2 125625.9 112033.3 98364.81 105680.7 75402.3 62723.69 64835.84 77740.64
2018-6 2018-7 2018-8 2018-9 2018-10 2018-11 2018-12 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3
100596.5 103466.5 109198.5 115131.9 118859.3 124850.1 124956.5 93968.16 80830.18 89501.14
2019-4 2019-5 2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1
72548.31 79904.78 82878.8 116511.4 117660 117312.6 120484.4 116095.3 111415 93415.13
2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2020-5 2020-6 2020-7 2020-8 2020-9 2020-10 2020-11
84806.65 67517.13 71970.29 97430.36 103369.7 97153.51 99430.39 114865.6 124200.6 117922.9
2020-12 2021-1 2021-2 2021-3 2021-4 2021-5 2021-6 2021-7 2021-8 2021-9
125287.4 85009.87 102755 79274.44 60035.77 65166.49 80297.06 89964.91 100558 104982.7
2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-1 2022-2 2022-3 2022-4 2022-5 2022-6 2022-7
113469.9 111611.2 105473.3 89862.98 78517.96 70780.1 72576.97 82819.95 95552.72 110294.2
2022-8 2022-9 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-1 2023-2 2023-3 2023-4 2023-5
97397.23 91078.3 113809.3 104966.1 103894.7 88685.3 81888.65 74682.62 47309.69 68084.75
2023-6 2023-7 2023-8 2023-9 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12
75028.14 93131.66 107863.2 103633 113285 101932.6 105781.1
Unidad TM Azucar
1992-1 40932
1992-2 36866
1992-3 25996
1992-4 16708 140000
1992-5 23871
1992-6 31314 120000
1992-7 39689
100000
1992-8 45143
1992-9 45429
80000
1992-10 46079
1992-11 42761
60000
1992-12 43719
1993-1 39213 40000
1993-2 30590
1993-3 23233 20000
1993-4 16139
1993-5 18218 0
1992-1 1993-4 1994-7 1995-10 1997-1 1998-4 1999-7 2000-10 2002-1 2003-4 2004-7 200
1993-6 18734
1993-7 29121
1993-8 34631
1993-9 42114
1993-10 45700
1993-11 50952
1993-12 51541
1994-1 44251
1994-2 38328
1994-3 31356
1994-4 17403
1994-5 33736
1994-6 42130
1994-7 47812
1994-8 61257
1994-9 51700
1994-10 59644
1994-11 58835
1994-12 55545
1995-1 48890
1995-2 45821
1995-3 46568
1995-4 40809
1995-5 31923
1995-6 45508
1995-7 59953
1995-8 67445
1995-9 60418
1995-10 63722
1995-11 65522
1995-12 64678
1996-1 54840
1996-2 51437
1996-3 44452
1996-4 28621
1996-5 32046
1996-6 34450
1996-7 50223
1996-8 60298
1996-9 60693
1996-10 63684
1996-11 63738
1996-12 63088
1997-1 58283
1997-2 57455
1997-3 54514
1997-4 49611
1997-5 51870
1997-6 59680
1997-7 57534
1997-8 56173
1997-9 61820
1997-10 59423
1997-11 55186
1997-12 52784
1998-1 37936
1998-2 21085
1998-3 13004
1998-4 16274
1998-5 25598
1998-6 33819
1998-7 46477
1998-8 52966
1998-9 48929
1998-10 48894
1998-11 55035
1998-12 49565
1999-1 43322
1999-2 37215
1999-3 41033
1999-4 35637
1999-5 45074
1999-6 45897
1999-7 50167
1999-8 53322
1999-9 60429
1999-10 66628
1999-11 63068
1999-12 61296
2000-1 60396.383
2000-2 61596.81
2000-3 53630.031
2000-4 33385.189
2000-5 48960.515
2000-6 60098.059
2000-7 56498.584
2000-8 63597.528
2000-9 63457.414
2000-10 72370.756
2000-11 76914.053
2000-12 73190.541
2001-1 55348.747
2001-2 61053.743
2001-3 49216.012
2001-4 45774.448
2001-5 42577.501
2001-6 54235.964
2001-7 65159.416
2001-8 78296.687
2001-9 74757.397
2001-10 80746.07445
2001-11 73128.23
2001-12 79640.442
2002-1 73028.001
2002-2 63257.588
2002-3 63967.494
2002-4 54276.292
2002-5 55725.389
2002-6 71441.199
2002-7 75375.94
2002-8 86042.823
2002-9 83771.32
2002-10 85824.021
2002-11 81279.759
2002-12 83597.893
2003-1 75812.578
2003-2 64683.485
2003-3 76967.807
2003-4 61901.946
2003-5 80184.785
2003-6 84496.26
2003-7 82153.217
2003-8 83951.295
2003-9 80683.226
2003-10 91208.168
2003-11 85970.854
2003-12 90793.904
2004-1 70762.528
2004-2 54918.877
2004-3 61402.855
2004-4 49136.195
2004-5 64469.314
2004-6 59344.708
2004-7 59936.199
2004-8 59240.209
2004-9 61347.26
2004-10 66519.385
2004-11 72835.422
2004-12 67658.325
2005-1 51941.657
2005-2 51159.5
2005-3 45758.711
2005-4 42378.591
2005-5 43566.989
2005-6 50405.699
2005-7 63515.796
2005-8 61848.1
2005-9 62803.643
2005-10 68920.5
2005-11 74486.455
2005-12 77813.113
2006-1 58574.758
2006-2 70179.724
2006-3 53007.467
2006-4 31107.509
2006-5 61157.249
2006-6 52503.743
2006-7 69523.852
2006-8 74679.51353
2006-9 74107.336
2006-10 88769.816
2006-11 82908.461
2006-12 88613.298
2007-1 71650.428
2007-2 61850.88507
2007-3 56825.632
2007-4 35047.963
2007-5 59448.637
2007-6 81227.509
2007-7 85502.918
2007-8 91065.385
2007-9 85901.236
2007-10 102134.341
2007-11 88716.765
2007-12 96263.934
2008-1 85589.831
2008-2 67269.051
2008-3 66684.345
2008-4 65023.61
2008-5 66996.278
2008-6 80221.1362
2008-7 87013.21
2008-8 92336.043
2008-9 92321.237
2008-10 104076.566
2008-11 98920.382
2008-12 100717.94
2009-1 87037.527
2009-2 90040.628
2009-3 85250.698
2009-4 73317.81
2009-5 66110.242
2009-6 68345.192
2009-7 93219.075
2009-8 93503.21
2009-9 89326.97
2009-10 105844.005
2009-11 105952.688
2009-12 106551.198
2010-1 87432.688
2010-2 65193.004
2010-3 76170.803
2010-4 70903.402
2010-5 70341.909
2010-6 83600.282
2010-7 90478.902
2010-8 100283.631
2010-9 94738.32
2010-10 92103.591
2010-11 103101.80744
2010-12 103827.744
2011-1 89601.808
2011-2 70243.906
2011-3 93199.5
2011-4 77843.426
2011-5 79763.677
2011-6 70783.943
2011-7 80603.4545
2011-8 101789.019
2011-9 90084.204
2011-10 103618.8188432
2011-11 106149.052
2011-12 112533.89
2012-1 90414.284
2012-2 77246.178
2012-3 85490.114
2012-4 73425.453
2012-5 71009.097
2012-6 68111.127
2012-7 81377.055
2012-8 108801.231
2012-9 111137.398
2012-10 112335.071
2012-11 118720.736
2012-12 108212.176
2013-1 91108.029
2013-2 92478.902
2013-3 76980.215
2013-4 95550.26
2013-5 95536.522
2013-6 88951.383
2013-7 71652.124
2013-8 102139.128
2013-9 115160.178
2013-10 113974.935
2013-11 112802.892
2013-12 117733.698
2014-1 96414.093
2014-2 98057.237
2014-3 94662.452
2014-4 98504.078
2014-5 96607.417
2014-6 78672.275
2014-7 72046.497
2014-8 105153.855
2014-9 112545.801
2014-10 117598.877
2014-11 115818.938
2014-12 117410.216
2015-1 90186.489
2015-2 88257.955
2015-3 82019.805
2015-4 68449.884
2015-5 59847.272
2015-6 80104.803
2015-7 76098.21
2015-8 103363.497
2015-9 103898.816
2015-10 124842.167
2015-11 117930.474
2015-12 124404.102
2016-1 110748.779
2016-2 88611.17
2016-3 61944.048
2016-4 53462.102
2016-5 57751.838
2016-6 95946.464
2016-7 124994.317
2016-8 114941.21
2016-9 115863.386
2016-10 109218.815
2016-11 107510.491
2016-12 107328.486
2017-1 102966.089
2017-2 77377.829
2017-3 34164.559
2017-4 59208.747
2017-5 77141.654
2017-6 68912.183
2017-7 93987.408
2017-8 111052.267
2017-9 120095.193
2017-10 125625.938
2017-11 112033.322
2017-12 98364.806
2018-1 105680.727
2018-2 75402.3
2018-3 62723.685
2018-4 64835.84
2018-5 77740.643
2018-6 100596.452
2018-7 103466.504
2018-8 109198.528
2018-9 115131.934
2018-10 118859.314
2018-11 124850.0625
2018-12 124956.48
2019-1 93968.155
2019-2 80830.178
2019-3 89501.141
2019-4 72548.312
2019-5 79904.78
2019-6 82878.8
2019-7 116511.402
2019-8 117660.043
2019-9 117312.611
2019-10 120484.396
2019-11 116095.286
2019-12 111414.99
2020-1 93415.129
2020-2 84806.649
2020-3 67517.133
2020-4 71970.285
2020-5 97430.36
2020-6 103369.707
2020-7 97153.513
2020-8 99430.386
2020-9 114865.641
2020-10 124200.648
2020-11 117922.883
2020-12 125287.3764723
2021-1 85009.87
2021-2 102754.96084
2021-3 79274.443
2021-4 60035.768
2021-5 65166.4879231686
2021-6 80297.06
2021-7 89964.912
2021-8 100558.032
2021-9 104982.708
2021-10 113469.932226
2021-11 111611.204430619
2021-12 105473.274486387
2022-1 89862.9805462726
2022-2 78517.9631681171
2022-3 70780.103
2022-4 72576.9725629689
2022-5 82819.949
2022-6 95552.724461
2022-7 110294.18919192
2022-8 97397.2250050823
2022-9 91078.295515
2022-10 113809.348287
2022-11 104966.071
2022-12 103894.713
2023-1 88685.295
2023-2 81888.6480921262
2023-3 74682.6202851963
2023-4 47309.691498
2023-5 68084.7467460009
2023-6 75028.1410009774
2023-7 93131.6565666711
2023-8 107863.23938
2023-9 103633.02644
2023-10 113284.980310694
2023-11 101932.610867
2023-12 105781.139984505
 TM Azucar

000-10 2002-1 2003-4 2004-7 2005-10 2007-1 2008-4 2009-7 2010-10 2012-1 2013-4 2014-7 2015-10 2017-1 2018-4 2019-7 2020-10 2022-1 2023-4
0 2022-1 2023-4
Unidad TM Azucar
2011-1 89601.808
2011-2 70243.906
2011-3 93199.5
2011-4 77843.426
2011-5 79763.677
2011-6 70783.943
2011-7 80603.4545 140000
2011-8 101789.019 120000
2011-9 90084.204
100000
2011-10 103618.8188432
2011-11 106149.052 80000
2011-12 112533.89 60000
2012-1 90414.284
40000
2012-2 77246.178
2012-3 85490.114 20000
2012-4 73425.453 0
2012-5 71009.097 2011-12011-72012-12012-72013-12013-72014-12014-72015-12015-720
2012-6 68111.127
2012-7 81377.055
2012-8 108801.231
2012-9 111137.398
2012-10 112335.071
2012-11 118720.736
2012-12 108212.176
2013-1 91108.029
2013-2 92478.902
2013-3 76980.215
2013-4 95550.26
2013-5 95536.522
2013-6 88951.383
2013-7 71652.124
2013-8 102139.128
2013-9 115160.178
2013-10 113974.935
2013-11 112802.892
2013-12 117733.698
2014-1 96414.093
2014-2 98057.237
2014-3 94662.452
2014-4 98504.078
2014-5 96607.417
2014-6 78672.275
2014-7 72046.497
2014-8 105153.855
2014-9 112545.801
2014-10 117598.877
2014-11 115818.938
2014-12 117410.216
2015-1 90186.489
2015-2 88257.955
2015-3 82019.805
2015-4 68449.884
2015-5 59847.272
2015-6 80104.803
2015-7 76098.21
2015-8 103363.497
2015-9 103898.816
2015-10 124842.167
2015-11 117930.474
2015-12 124404.102
2016-1 110748.779
2016-2 88611.17
2016-3 61944.048
2016-4 53462.102
2016-5 57751.838
2016-6 80104.803
2016-7 124994.317
2016-8 114941.21
2016-9 115863.386
2016-10 109218.815
2016-11 107510.491
2016-12 107328.486
2017-1 102966.089
2017-2 77377.829
2017-3 61944.048
2017-4 59208.747
2017-5 77141.654
2017-6 68912.183
2017-7 93987.408
2017-8 111052.267
2017-9 120095.193
2017-10 125625.938
2017-11 112033.322
2017-12 98364.806
2018-1 105680.727
2018-2 75402.3
2018-3 62723.685
2018-4 64835.84
2018-5 77740.643
2018-6 100596.452
2018-7 103466.504
2018-8 109198.528
2018-9 115131.934
2018-10 118859.314
2018-11 124850.0625
2018-12 124956.48
2019-1 93968.155
2019-2 80830.178
2019-3 89501.141
2019-4 72548.312
2019-5 79904.78
2019-6 82878.8
2019-7 116511.402
2019-8 117660.043
2019-9 117312.611
2019-10 120484.396
2019-11 116095.286
2019-12 111414.99
2020-1 93415.129
2020-2 84806.649
2020-3 67517.133
2020-4 71970.285
2020-5 97430.36
2020-6 103369.707
2020-7 97153.513
2020-8 99430.386
2020-9 114865.641
2020-10 124200.648
2020-11 117922.883
2020-12 125287.3764723
2021-1 88685.295
2021-2 102754.96084
2021-3 79274.443
2021-4 60035.768
2021-5 65166.4879231686
2021-6 80297.06
2021-7 89964.912
2021-8 100558.032
2021-9 104982.708
2021-10 113469.932226
2021-11 111611.204430619
2021-12 105473.274486387
2022-1 89862.9805462726
2022-2 78517.9631681171
2022-3 70780.103
2022-4 72576.9725629689
2022-5 82819.949
2022-6 95552.724461
2022-7 110294.18919192
2022-8 97397.2250050823
2022-9 91078.295515
2022-10 113809.348287
2022-11 104966.071
2022-12 103894.713
2023-1 88685.295
2023-2 81888.6480921262
2023-3 74682.6202851963
2023-4 47309.691498
2023-5 68084.7467460009
2023-6 75028.1410009774
2023-7 93131.6565666711
2023-8 107863.23938
2023-9 103633.02644
2023-10 113284.980310694
2023-11 101932.610867
2023-12 105781.139984505
 TM Azucar

3-72014-12014-72015-12015-72016-12016-72017-12017-72018-12018-72019-12019-72020-12020-72021-12021-72022-12022-72023-12023-7
23-12023-7
Runs Test Results for TM Azucar

# of nonmissing obs 156

# below mean 72
# on or above mean 84
# of runs 34

E(R) 78.538
Stdev(R) 6.188
z-value -7.198
p-value (2-tailed) 0.000

Detalle: P=0 < 0.05: Se rechaza la hipotesis

de que los datos sean aleatorios.
Los datos pueden usarse en un pronostico.
Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation Forecast Error
1 89601.808
Moving averages 2 70243.906
3 93199.500
Span 3 4 77843.426 84348.405 -6504.979
5 79763.677 80428.944 -665.267
Estimation period 6 70783.943 83602.201 -12818.258
7 80603.455 76130.349 4473.106
MAE 15762.2153 8 101789.019 77050.358 24738.661
RMSE 19015.4293 9 90084.204 84392.139 5692.065
MAPE 17.87% 10 103618.819 90825.559 12793.260
11 106149.052 98497.347 7651.705
12 112533.890 99950.692 12583.198
Time series of TM13Azucar with forecasts
90414.284 superimposed
107433.920 -17019.636
14 77246.178 103032.409 -25786.231
140000.000
15 85490.114 93398.117 -7908.003
16 73425.453 84383.525 -10958.072
120000.000
17 71009.097 78720.582 -7711.485
18 68111.127 76641.555 -8530.428
100000.000
19 81377.055 70848.559 10528.496
20 108801.231 73499.093 35302.138
80000.000
21 111137.398 86096.471 25040.927
22 112335.071 100438.561 11896.510
60000.000 23 118720.736 110757.900 7962.836
24 108212.176 114064.402 -5852.226
40000.000 25 91108.029 113089.328 -21981.299
26 92478.902 106013.647 -13534.745
20000.000 27 76980.215 97266.369 -20286.154
28 95550.260 86855.715 8694.545
0.000 29 95536.522 88336.459 7200.063
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
30 88951.383 89355.666 -404.283
31Time 71652.124 93346.055 -21693.931
32 102139.128 85380.010 16759.118
33 115160.178 87580.878 27579.300
34 113974.935 96317.143 17657.792
35 112802.892 110424.747 2378.145
36 117733.698 113979.335 3754.363
37 96414.093 114837.175 -18423.082
38 98057.237 108983.561 -10926.324
39 94662.452 104068.343 -9405.891
40 98504.078 96377.927 2126.151
41 96607.417 97074.589 -467.172
42 78672.275 96591.316 -17919.041
43 72046.497 91261.257 -19214.760
44 105153.855 82442.063 22711.792
45 112545.801 85290.876 27254.925
46 117598.877 96582.051 21016.826
47 115818.938 111766.178 4052.760
48 117410.216 115321.205 2089.011
49 90186.489 116942.677 -26756.188
50 88257.955 107805.214 -19547.259
51 82019.805 98618.220 -16598.415
52 68449.884 86821.416 -18371.532
53 59847.272 79575.881 -19728.609
54 80104.803 70105.654 9999.149
55 76098.210 69467.320 6630.890
56 103363.497 72016.762 31346.735
57 103898.816 86522.170 17376.646
58 124842.167 94453.508 30388.659
59 117930.474 110701.493 7228.981
60 124404.102 115557.152 8846.950
61 110748.779 122392.248 -11643.469
62 88611.170 117694.452 -29083.282
63 61944.048 107921.350 -45977.302
64 53462.102 87101.332 -33639.230
65 57751.838 68005.773 -10253.935
66 80104.803 57719.329 22385.474
67 124994.317 63772.914 61221.403
68 114941.210 87616.986 27324.224
69 115863.386 106680.110 9183.276
70 109218.815 118599.638 -9380.823
71 107510.491 113341.137 -5830.646
72 107328.486 110864.231 -3535.745
73 102966.089 108019.264 -5053.175
74 77377.829 105935.022 -28557.193
75 61944.048 95890.801 -33946.753
76 59208.747 80762.655 -21553.908
77 77141.654 66176.875 10964.779
78 68912.183 66098.150 2814.033
79 93987.408 68420.861 25566.547
80 111052.267 80013.748 31038.519
81 120095.193 91317.286 28777.907
82 125625.938 108378.289 17247.649
83 112033.322 118924.466 -6891.144
84 98364.806 119251.484 -20886.678
85 105680.727 112008.022 -6327.295
86 75402.300 105359.618 -29957.318
87 62723.685 93149.278 -30425.593
88 64835.840 81268.904 -16433.064
89 77740.643 67653.942 10086.701
90 100596.452 68433.389 32163.063
91 103466.504 81057.645 22408.859
92 109198.528 93934.533 15263.995
93 115131.934 104420.495 10711.439
94 118859.314 109265.655 9593.659
95 124850.063 114396.592 10453.470
 96 124956.480 119613.770 5342.710
97 93968.155 122888.619 -28920.464
98 80830.178 114591.566 -33761.388
99 89501.141 99918.271 -10417.130
100 72548.312 88099.825 -15551.513
101 79904.780 80959.877 -1055.097
102 82878.800 80651.411 2227.389
103 116511.402 78443.964 38067.438
104 117660.043 93098.327 24561.716
105 117312.611 105683.415 11629.196
106 120484.396 117161.352 3323.044
107 116095.286 118485.683 -2390.397
108 111414.990 117964.098 -6549.108
109 93415.129 115998.224 -22583.095
110 84806.649 106975.135 -22168.486
111 67517.133 96545.589 -29028.456
112 71970.285 81912.970 -9942.685
113 97430.360 74764.689 22665.671
114 103369.707 78972.593 24397.114
115 97153.513 90923.451 6230.062
116 99430.386 99317.860 112.526
117 114865.641 99984.535 14881.106
118 124200.648 103816.513 20384.135
119 117922.883 112832.225 5090.658
120 125287.376 118996.391 6290.986
121 88685.295 122470.302 -33785.007
122 102754.961 110631.851 -7876.891
123 79274.443 105575.877 -26301.434
124 60035.768 90238.233 -30202.465
125 65166.488 80688.391 -15521.903
126 80297.060 68158.900 12138.160
127 89964.912 68499.772 21465.140
128 100558.032 78476.153 22081.879
129 104982.708 90273.335 14709.373
130 113469.932 98501.884 14968.048
131 111611.204 106336.891 5274.314
132 105473.274 110021.282 -4548.007
133 89862.981 110184.804 -20321.823
134 78517.963 102315.820 -23797.857
135 70780.103 91284.739 -20504.636
136 72576.973 79720.349 -7143.376
137 82819.949 73958.346 8861.603
138 95552.724 75392.342 20160.383
139 110294.189 83649.882 26644.307
140 97397.225 96222.288 1174.937
141 91078.296 101081.380 -10003.084
142 113809.348 99589.903 14219.445
143 104966.071 100761.623 4204.448
144 103894.713 103284.572 610.141
145 88685.295 107556.711 -18871.416
146 81888.648 99182.026 -17293.378
147 74682.620 91489.552 -16806.932
148 47309.691 81752.188 -34442.496
149 68084.747 67960.320 124.427
150 75028.141 63359.020 11669.121
151 93131.657 63474.193 29657.463
152 107863.239 78748.181 29115.058
153 103633.026 92007.679 11625.347
154 113284.980 101542.641 11742.340
155 101932.611 108260.415 -6327.805
156 105781.140 106283.539 -502.399
157 106999.577
158 104904.443
159 105895.053
160 105933.024
161 105577.507
162 105801.861
163 105770.797
164 105716.722
165 105763.127
166 105750.215
167 105743.355
168 105752.232
169 105748.601
170 105748.063
171 105749.632
172 105748.765
173 105748.820
174 105749.072
175 105748.886
176 105748.926
177 105748.961
178 105748.924
179 105748.937
180 105748.941
imposed

Observation
Forecast

1 148 155 162 169 176

Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation SmLevel Forecast
1 89601.808 89601.808
Simple exponential smoothing 2 70243.906 70243.906 89601.808
3 93199.500 93199.500 70243.906
Smoothing constant(s) 4 77843.426 77843.426 93199.500
Level 1.000 5 79763.677 79763.677 77843.426
6 70783.943 70783.943 79763.677
Estimation period 7 80603.455 80603.455 70783.943
8 101789.019 101789.019 80603.455
MAE 11267.7324 9 90084.204 90084.204 101789.019
RMSE 14318.4248 10 103618.819 103618.819 90084.204
MAPE 12.75% 11 106149.052 106149.052 103618.819
12 112533.890 112533.890 106149.052
13 90414.284 90414.284 112533.890
Time series of TM Azucar with forecasts superimposed
14 77246.178 77246.178 90414.284
15 85490.114 85490.114 77246.178
140000.000
16 73425.453 73425.453 85490.114
17 71009.097 71009.097 73425.453
120000.000
18 68111.127 68111.127 71009.097
19 81377.055 81377.055 68111.127
100000.000
20 108801.231 108801.231 81377.055
21 111137.398 111137.398 108801.231
80000.000
22 112335.071 112335.071 111137.398
23 118720.736 118720.736 112335.071
60000.000 24 108212.176 108212.176 118720.736
25 91108.029 91108.029 108212.176
40000.000 26 92478.902 92478.902 91108.029
27 76980.215 76980.215 92478.902
20000.000 28 95550.260 95550.260 76980.215
29 95536.522 95536.522 95550.260
0.000 30 88951.383 88951.383 95536.522
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
31 71652.124 71652.124 88951.383
32 Time102139.128 102139.128 71652.124
33 115160.178 115160.178 102139.128
34 113974.935 113974.935 115160.178
35 112802.892 112802.892 113974.935
36 117733.698 117733.698 112802.892
37 96414.093 96414.093 117733.698
38 98057.237 98057.237 96414.093
39 94662.452 94662.452 98057.237
40 98504.078 98504.078 94662.452
41 96607.417 96607.417 98504.078
42 78672.275 78672.275 96607.417
43 72046.497 72046.497 78672.275
44 105153.855 105153.855 72046.497
45 112545.801 112545.801 105153.855
46 117598.877 117598.877 112545.801
47 115818.938 115818.938 117598.877
48 117410.216 117410.216 115818.938
49 90186.489 90186.489 117410.216
50 88257.955 88257.955 90186.489
51 82019.805 82019.805 88257.955
52 68449.884 68449.884 82019.805
53 59847.272 59847.272 68449.884
54 80104.803 80104.803 59847.272
55 76098.210 76098.210 80104.803
56 103363.497 103363.497 76098.210
57 103898.816 103898.816 103363.497
58 124842.167 124842.167 103898.816
59 117930.474 117930.474 124842.167
60 124404.102 124404.102 117930.474
61 110748.779 110748.779 124404.102
62 88611.170 88611.170 110748.779
63 61944.048 61944.048 88611.170
64 53462.102 53462.102 61944.048
65 57751.838 57751.838 53462.102
66 80104.803 80104.803 57751.838
67 124994.317 124994.317 80104.803
68 114941.210 114941.210 124994.317
69 115863.386 115863.386 114941.210
70 109218.815 109218.815 115863.386
71 107510.491 107510.491 109218.815
72 107328.486 107328.486 107510.491
73 102966.089 102966.089 107328.486
74 77377.829 77377.829 102966.089
75 61944.048 61944.048 77377.829
76 59208.747 59208.747 61944.048
77 77141.654 77141.654 59208.747
78 68912.183 68912.183 77141.654
79 93987.408 93987.408 68912.183
80 111052.267 111052.267 93987.408
81 120095.193 120095.193 111052.267
82 125625.938 125625.938 120095.193
83 112033.322 112033.322 125625.938
84 98364.806 98364.806 112033.322
85 105680.727 105680.727 98364.806
86 75402.300 75402.300 105680.727
87 62723.685 62723.685 75402.300
88 64835.840 64835.840 62723.685
89 77740.643 77740.643 64835.840
90 100596.452 100596.452 77740.643
91 103466.504 103466.504 100596.452
92 109198.528 109198.528 103466.504
93 115131.934 115131.934 109198.528
94 118859.314 118859.314 115131.934
95 124850.063 124850.063 118859.314
 96 124956.480 124956.480 124850.063
97 93968.155 93968.155 124956.480
98 80830.178 80830.178 93968.155
99 89501.141 89501.141 80830.178
100 72548.312 72548.312 89501.141
101 79904.780 79904.780 72548.312
102 82878.800 82878.800 79904.780
103 116511.402 116511.402 82878.800
104 117660.043 117660.043 116511.402
105 117312.611 117312.611 117660.043
106 120484.396 120484.396 117312.611
107 116095.286 116095.286 120484.396
108 111414.990 111414.990 116095.286
109 93415.129 93415.129 111414.990
110 84806.649 84806.649 93415.129
111 67517.133 67517.133 84806.649
112 71970.285 71970.285 67517.133
113 97430.360 97430.360 71970.285
114 103369.707 103369.707 97430.360
115 97153.513 97153.513 103369.707
116 99430.386 99430.386 97153.513
117 114865.641 114865.641 99430.386
118 124200.648 124200.648 114865.641
119 117922.883 117922.883 124200.648
120 125287.376 125287.376 117922.883
121 88685.295 88685.295 125287.376
122 102754.961 102754.961 88685.295
123 79274.443 79274.443 102754.961
124 60035.768 60035.768 79274.443
125 65166.488 65166.488 60035.768
126 80297.060 80297.060 65166.488
127 89964.912 89964.912 80297.060
128 100558.032 100558.032 89964.912
129 104982.708 104982.708 100558.032
130 113469.932 113469.932 104982.708
131 111611.204 111611.204 113469.932
132 105473.274 105473.274 111611.204
133 89862.981 89862.981 105473.274
134 78517.963 78517.963 89862.981
135 70780.103 70780.103 78517.963
136 72576.973 72576.973 70780.103
137 82819.949 82819.949 72576.973
138 95552.724 95552.724 82819.949
139 110294.189 110294.189 95552.724
140 97397.225 97397.225 110294.189
141 91078.296 91078.296 97397.225
142 113809.348 113809.348 91078.296
143 104966.071 104966.071 113809.348
144 103894.713 103894.713 104966.071
145 88685.295 88685.295 103894.713
146 81888.648 81888.648 88685.295
147 74682.620 74682.620 81888.648
148 47309.691 47309.691 74682.620
149 68084.747 68084.747 47309.691
150 75028.141 75028.141 68084.747
151 93131.657 93131.657 75028.141
152 107863.239 107863.239 93131.657
153 103633.026 103633.026 107863.239
154 113284.980 113284.980 103633.026
155 101932.611 101932.611 113284.980
156 105781.140 105781.140 101932.611
157 105781.140
158 105781.140
159 105781.140
160 105781.140
161 105781.140
162 105781.140
163 105781.140
164 105781.140
165 105781.140
166 105781.140
167 105781.140
168 105781.140
169 105781.140
170 105781.140
171 105781.140
172 105781.140
173 105781.140
174 105781.140
175 105781.140
176 105781.140
177 105781.140
178 105781.140
179 105781.140
180 105781.140
 Error

-19357.902
22955.594
-15356.074
1920.251
-8979.734
9819.512
21185.564
-11704.815
13534.615
2530.233
6384.838
-22119.606
rimposed -13168.106
8243.936
-12064.661
-2416.356
-2897.970
13265.928
27424.176
2336.167
1197.673
Observation
6385.665 Forecast
-10508.560
-17104.147
1370.873
-15498.687
18570.045
-13.738
-6585.139
41 148 155 162 169 176
-17299.259
30487.004
13021.050
-1185.243
-1172.043
4930.806
-21319.605
1643.144
-3394.785
3841.626
-1896.661
-17935.142
-6625.778
33107.358
7391.946
5053.076
-1779.939
 1591.278
-27223.727
-1928.534
-6238.150
-13569.921
-8602.612
20257.531
-4006.593
27265.287
535.319
20943.351
-6911.693
6473.628
-13655.323
-22137.609
-26667.122
-8481.946
4289.736
22352.965
44889.514
-10053.107
922.176
-6644.571
-1708.324
-182.005
-4362.397
-25588.260
-15433.781
-2735.301
17932.907
-8229.471
25075.225
17064.859
9042.926
5530.745
-13592.616
-13668.516
7315.921
-30278.427
-12678.615
2112.155
12904.803
22855.809
2870.052
5732.024
5933.406
3727.380
5990.749
 106.417
-30988.325
-13137.977
8670.963
-16952.829
7356.468
2974.020
33632.602
1148.641
-347.432
3171.785
-4389.110
-4680.296
-17999.861
-8608.480
-17289.516
4453.152
25460.075
5939.347
-6216.194
2276.873
15435.255
9335.007
-6277.765
7364.493
-36602.081
14069.666
-23480.518
-19238.675
5130.720
15130.572
9667.852
10593.120
4424.676
8487.224
-1858.728
-6137.930
-15610.294
-11345.017
-7737.860
1796.870
10242.976
12732.775
14741.465
-12896.964
-6318.929
22731.053
-8843.277
 -1071.358
-15209.418
-6796.647
-7206.028
-27372.929
20775.055
6943.394
18103.516
14731.583
-4230.213
9651.954
-11352.369
3848.529
Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
1 89601.808
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 70243.906
3 93199.500
Smoothing constant(s) 4 77843.426
Level 1.000 5 79763.677
Trend 0.000 6 70783.943
7 80603.455
Estimation period 8 101789.019
9 90084.204
MAE 11057.2273 10 103618.819
RMSE 14232.0810 11 106149.052
MAPE 12.48% 12 112533.890 89684.558 -208.786
13 90414.284 90414.284 -208.786
14 77246.178 77246.178 -208.786
Time series of TM
15 Azucar with forecasts
85490.114 superimposed
85490.114 -208.786
16 73425.453 73425.453 -208.786
140000.000
17 71009.097 71009.097 -208.786
18 68111.127 68111.127 -208.786
120000.000
19 81377.055 81377.055 -208.786
20 108801.231 108801.231 -208.786
100000.000
21 111137.398 111137.398 -208.786
22 112335.071 112335.071 -208.786
80000.000
23 118720.736 118720.736 -208.786
24 108212.176 108212.176 -208.786
60000.000 25 91108.029 91108.029 -208.786
26 92478.902 92478.902 -208.786
40000.000 27 76980.215 76980.215 -208.786
28 95550.260 95550.260 -208.786
20000.000 29 95536.522 95536.522 -208.786
30 88951.383 88951.383 -208.786
0.000 31 71652.124 71652.124 -208.786
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
32 102139.128 102139.128 -208.786
33 Time
115160.178 115160.178 -208.786
34 113974.935 113974.935 -208.786
35 112802.892 112802.892 -208.786
36 117733.698 117733.698 -208.786
37 96414.093 96414.093 -208.786
38 98057.237 98057.237 -208.786
39 94662.452 94662.452 -208.786
40 98504.078 98504.078 -208.786
41 96607.417 96607.417 -208.786
42 78672.275 78672.275 -208.786
43 72046.497 72046.497 -208.786
44 105153.855 105153.855 -208.786
45 112545.801 112545.801 -208.786
46 117598.877 117598.877 -208.786
47 115818.938 115818.938 -208.786
48 117410.216 117410.216 -208.786
49 90186.489 90186.489 -208.786
50 88257.955 88257.955 -208.786
51 82019.805 82019.805 -208.786
52 68449.884 68449.884 -208.786
53 59847.272 59847.272 -208.786
54 80104.803 80104.803 -208.786
55 76098.210 76098.210 -208.786
56 103363.497 103363.497 -208.786
57 103898.816 103898.816 -208.786
58 124842.167 124842.167 -208.786
59 117930.474 117930.474 -208.786
60 124404.102 124404.102 -208.786
61 110748.779 110748.779 -208.786
62 88611.170 88611.170 -208.786
63 61944.048 61944.048 -208.786
64 53462.102 53462.102 -208.786
65 57751.838 57751.838 -208.786
66 80104.803 80104.803 -208.786
67 124994.317 124994.317 -208.786
68 114941.210 114941.210 -208.786
69 115863.386 115863.386 -208.786
70 109218.815 109218.815 -208.786
71 107510.491 107510.491 -208.786
72 107328.486 107328.486 -208.786
73 102966.089 102966.089 -208.786
74 77377.829 77377.829 -208.786
75 61944.048 61944.048 -208.786
76 59208.747 59208.747 -208.786
77 77141.654 77141.654 -208.786
78 68912.183 68912.183 -208.786
79 93987.408 93987.408 -208.786
80 111052.267 111052.267 -208.786
81 120095.193 120095.193 -208.786
82 125625.938 125625.938 -208.786
83 112033.322 112033.322 -208.786
84 98364.806 98364.806 -208.786
85 105680.727 105680.727 -208.786
86 75402.300 75402.300 -208.786
87 62723.685 62723.685 -208.786
88 64835.840 64835.840 -208.786
89 77740.643 77740.643 -208.786
90 100596.452 100596.452 -208.786
91 103466.504 103466.504 -208.786
92 109198.528 109198.528 -208.786
93 115131.934 115131.934 -208.786
94 118859.314 118859.314 -208.786
95 124850.063 124850.063 -208.786
 96 124956.480 124956.480 -208.786
97 93968.155 93968.155 -208.786
98 80830.178 80830.178 -208.786
99 89501.141 89501.141 -208.786
100 72548.312 72548.312 -208.786
101 79904.780 79904.780 -208.786
102 82878.800 82878.800 -208.786
103 116511.402 116511.402 -208.786
104 117660.043 117660.043 -208.786
105 117312.611 117312.611 -208.786
106 120484.396 120484.396 -208.786
107 116095.286 116095.286 -208.786
108 111414.990 111414.990 -208.786
109 93415.129 93415.129 -208.786
110 84806.649 84806.649 -208.786
111 67517.133 67517.133 -208.786
112 71970.285 71970.285 -208.786
113 97430.360 97430.360 -208.786
114 103369.707 103369.707 -208.786
115 97153.513 97153.513 -208.786
116 99430.386 99430.386 -208.786
117 114865.641 114865.641 -208.786
118 124200.648 124200.648 -208.786
119 117922.883 117922.883 -208.786
120 125287.376 125287.376 -208.786
121 88685.295 88685.295 -208.786
122 102754.961 102754.961 -208.786
123 79274.443 79274.443 -208.786
124 60035.768 60035.768 -208.786
125 65166.488 65166.488 -208.786
126 80297.060 80297.060 -208.786
127 89964.912 89964.912 -208.786
128 100558.032 100558.032 -208.786
129 104982.708 104982.708 -208.786
130 113469.932 113469.932 -208.786
131 111611.204 111611.204 -208.786
132 105473.274 105473.274 -208.786
133 89862.981 89862.981 -208.786
134 78517.963 78517.963 -208.786
135 70780.103 70780.103 -208.786
136 72576.973 72576.973 -208.786
137 82819.949 82819.949 -208.786
138 95552.724 95552.724 -208.786
139 110294.189 110294.189 -208.786
140 97397.225 97397.225 -208.786
141 91078.296 91078.296 -208.786
142 113809.348 113809.348 -208.786
143 104966.071 104966.071 -208.786
144 103894.713 103894.713 -208.786
145 88685.295 88685.295 -208.786
146 81888.648 81888.648 -208.786
147 74682.620 74682.620 -208.786
148 47309.691 47309.691 -208.786
149 68084.747 68084.747 -208.786
150 75028.141 75028.141 -208.786
151 93131.657 93131.657 -208.786
152 107863.239 107863.239 -208.786
153 103633.026 103633.026 -208.786
154 113284.980 113284.980 -208.786
155 101932.611 101932.611 -208.786
156 105781.140 105781.140 -208.786
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
 Forecast Error

89475.772 938.512
90205.498 -12959.320
rimposed 77037.392 8452.722
85281.328 -11855.875
73216.667 -2207.570
70800.311 -2689.184
67902.341 13474.714
81168.269 27632.962
108592.445 2544.953
110928.612 1406.459
112126.285 6594.451
Observation
118511.950 -10299.774
Forecast
108003.390 -16895.361
90899.243 1579.659
92270.116 -15289.901
76771.429 18778.831
95341.474 195.048
95327.736 -6376.353
88742.597 -17090.473
141 148 155 162 169 176
71443.338 30695.790
101930.342 13229.836
114951.392 -976.457
113766.149 -963.257
112594.106 5139.592
117524.912 -21110.819
96205.307 1851.930
97848.451 -3185.999
94453.666 4050.412
98295.292 -1687.875
96398.631 -17726.356
78463.489 -6416.992
71837.711 33316.144
104945.069 7600.732
112337.015 5261.862
117390.091 -1571.153
115610.152 1800.064
117201.430 -27014.941
89977.703 -1719.748
88049.169 -6029.364
81811.019 -13361.135
68241.098 -8393.826
59638.486 20466.317
79896.017 -3797.807
75889.424 27474.073
103154.711 744.105
103690.030 21152.137
124633.381 -6702.907
117721.688 6682.414
124195.316 -13446.537
110539.993 -21928.823
88402.384 -26458.336
61735.262 -8273.160
53253.316 4498.522
57543.052 22561.751
79896.017 45098.300
124785.531 -9844.321
114732.424 1130.962
115654.600 -6435.785
109010.029 -1499.538
107301.705 26.781
107119.700 -4153.611
102757.303 -25379.474
77169.043 -15224.995
61735.262 -2526.515
58999.961 18141.693
76932.868 -8020.685
68703.397 25284.011
93778.622 17273.645
110843.481 9251.712
119886.407 5739.531
125417.152 -13383.830
111824.536 -13459.730
98156.020 7524.707
105471.941 -30069.641
75193.514 -12469.829
62514.899 2320.941
64627.054 13113.589
77531.857 23064.595
100387.666 3078.838
103257.718 5940.810
108989.742 6142.192
114923.148 3936.166
118650.528 6199.535
124641.276 315.204
124747.694 -30779.539
93759.369 -12929.191
80621.392 8879.749
89292.355 -16744.043
72339.526 7565.254
79695.994 3182.806
82670.014 33841.388
116302.616 1357.427
117451.257 -138.646
117103.825 3380.571
120275.610 -4180.324
115886.500 -4471.510
111206.204 -17791.075
93206.343 -8399.694
84597.863 -17080.730
67308.347 4661.938
71761.499 25668.861
97221.574 6148.133
103160.921 -6007.408
96944.727 2485.659
99221.600 15644.041
114656.855 9543.793
123991.862 -6068.979
117714.097 7573.280
125078.590 -36393.295
88476.509 14278.452
102546.175 -23271.732
79065.657 -19029.889
59826.982 5339.506
64957.702 15339.358
80088.274 9876.638
89756.126 10801.906
100349.246 4633.462
104773.922 8696.010
113261.146 -1649.942
111402.418 -5929.144
105264.488 -15401.508
89654.194 -11136.231
78309.177 -7529.074
70571.317 2005.656
72368.186 10451.763
82611.163 12941.562
95343.938 14950.251
110085.403 -12688.178
97188.439 -6110.143
90869.509 22939.839
113600.562 -8634.491
104757.285 -862.572
103685.927 -15000.632
88476.509 -6587.861
81679.862 -6997.242
74473.834 -27164.143
47100.905 20983.842
67875.960 7152.181
74819.355 18312.302
92922.870 14940.369
107654.453 -4021.427
103424.240 9860.740
113076.194 -11143.583
101723.825 4057.315
105572.354
105363.567
105154.781
104945.995
104737.209
104528.422
104319.636
104110.850
103902.064
103693.277
103484.491
103275.705
103066.919
102858.132
102649.346
102440.560
102231.774
102022.987
101814.201
101605.415
101396.628
101187.842
100979.056
100770.270
Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
1 89601.808
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 70243.906
3 93199.500
Smoothing constant(s) 4 77843.426
Level 0.094 5 79763.677
Trend 0.023 6 70783.943
Seasonality 0.338 7 80603.455
8 101789.019
Estimation period 9 90084.204
10 103618.819
MAE 8788.6334 11 106149.052
RMSE 11498.0041 12 112533.890 89684.558 208.786
MAPE 10.10% 13 90414.284 89950.042 210.092
14 77246.178 90954.132 228.385
15 85490.114 90346.126 209.116
Time series of TM
16 Azucar with forecasts
73425.453 superimposed
89996.118 196.234
17 71009.097 89221.388 173.865
140000.000
18 68111.127 89104.730 167.171
19 81377.055 89391.350 169.923
120000.000
20 108801.231 90152.376 183.542
21 111137.398 92240.882 227.429
100000.000
22 112335.071 92914.842 237.717
23 118720.736 93823.590 253.176
80000.000
24 108212.176 93341.697 236.241
25 91108.029 93336.595 230.681
60000.000 26 92478.902 95559.286 276.574
27 76980.215 94011.240 234.538
40000.000 28 95550.260 95945.138 273.689
29 95536.522 97640.352 306.439
20000.000 30 88951.383 99444.613 340.946
31 71652.124 97871.361 296.846
0.000 32 102139.128 97224.573 275.106
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
33 115160.178 98429.493 296.527
34 Time
113974.935 98575.864 293.068
35 112802.892 98330.914 280.673
36 117733.698 98395.017 275.683
37 96414.093 98525.657 272.342
38 98057.237 100221.837 305.145
39 94662.452 100503.705 304.609
40 98504.078 101624.363 323.409
41 96607.417 102470.002 335.441
42 78672.275 102170.086 320.803
43 72046.497 100874.189 283.557
44 105153.855 100455.859 267.386
45 112545.801 100827.560 269.789
46 117598.877 101061.383 268.961
47 115818.938 100958.043 260.383
48 117410.216 100797.666 250.690
49 90186.489 100132.948 229.600
50 88257.955 100144.952 224.587
51 82019.805 99110.931 195.590
52 68449.884 96947.157 141.234
53 59847.272 94126.773 73.002
54 80104.803 94725.602 85.116
55 76098.210 94830.196 85.565
56 103363.497 94851.254 84.079
57 103898.816 94818.986 81.399
58 124842.167 96039.241 107.636
59 117930.474 96540.534 116.706
60 124404.102 97337.566 132.379
61 110748.779 99165.827 171.450
62 88611.170 99318.579 171.019
63 61944.048 96583.387 104.064
64 53462.102 93519.271 31.074
65 57751.838 91383.809 -18.840
66 80104.803 91990.177 -4.436
67 124994.317 97987.278 133.831
68 114941.210 98767.817 148.730
69 115863.386 99478.224 161.670
70 109218.815 98750.465 141.179
71 107510.491 98083.535 122.561
72 107328.486 97215.808 99.747
73 102966.089 97731.730 109.335
74 77377.829 96788.820 85.092
75 61944.048 94912.559 39.905
76 59208.747 93393.443 3.988
77 77141.654 94204.058 22.571
78 68912.183 93126.988 -2.763
79 93987.408 93557.694 7.224
80 111052.267 94106.661 19.705
81 120095.193 95312.290 47.027
82 125625.938 96436.324 71.840
83 112033.322 96523.614 72.195
84 98364.806 95328.948 43.009
85 105680.727 96087.850 59.502
86 75402.300 95337.692 40.848
87 62723.685 94168.743 12.976
88 64835.840 93856.730 5.489
89 77740.643 94437.515 18.743
90 100596.452 97345.920 85.317
91 103466.504 98235.113 103.837
92 109198.528 98108.423 98.526
93 115131.934 98221.666 98.865
94 118859.314 98246.625 97.162
95 124850.063 99219.177 117.330
 96 124956.480 100368.289 141.101
97 93968.155 99468.688 117.125
98 80830.178 99295.324 110.432
99 89501.141 101604.111 161.079
100 72548.312 101849.877 163.030
101 79904.780 101896.898 160.358
102 82878.800 101309.770 143.137
103 116511.402 102842.005 175.140
104 117660.043 103119.565 177.499
105 117312.611 103004.487 170.759
106 120484.396 102793.859 161.972
107 116095.286 102427.581 149.802
108 111414.990 101884.122 133.830
109 93415.129 101081.045 112.245
110 84806.649 101288.783 114.445
111 67517.133 100010.770 82.365
112 71970.285 100232.087 85.566
113 97430.360 102476.959 135.313
114 103369.707 104266.278 173.419
115 97153.513 103352.908 148.381
116 99430.386 102018.609 114.222
117 114865.641 101839.516 107.465
118 124200.648 102084.977 110.644
119 117922.883 102041.084 107.084
120 125287.376 102834.832 122.904
121 88685.295 101751.140 95.105
122 102754.961 103873.968 141.821
123 79274.443 104245.791 147.120
124 60035.768 102512.790 103.805
125 65166.488 100231.386 48.853
126 80297.060 99204.287 24.064
127 89964.912 98272.453 2.042
128 100558.032 97789.472 -9.133
129 104982.708 97176.770 -23.038
130 113469.932 96864.298 -29.706
131 111611.204 96722.439 -32.290
132 105473.274 96080.557 -46.334
133 89862.981 95933.907 -48.645
134 78517.963 95210.645 -64.187
135 70780.103 95074.590 -65.843
136 72576.973 96270.415 -36.776
137 82819.949 97183.098 -14.902
138 95552.724 98330.509 11.876
139 110294.189 99692.436 42.980
140 97397.225 98977.971 25.529
141 91078.296 97304.101 -13.623
142 113809.348 97101.734 -17.971
143 104966.071 96446.152 -32.661
144 103894.713 95879.372 -44.966
145 88685.295 95666.187 -48.842
146 81888.648 95530.327 -50.847
147 74682.620 95887.587 -41.444
148 47309.691 93215.442 -102.052
149 68084.747 92327.228 -120.164
150 75028.141 91327.656 -140.424
151 93131.657 91185.141 -140.473
152 107863.239 92270.147 -112.239
153 103633.026 92668.133 -100.484
154 113284.980 92837.510 -94.267
155 101932.611 92449.324 -101.039
156 105781.140 92510.378 -97.304
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
 SmSeason Forecast Error
0.999
0.783
1.039
0.868
0.889
0.789
0.899
1.135
1.004
1.155
1.184
1.255
1.001 89810.402 603.882
0.806 70616.393 6629.785
1.008 94756.167 -9266.053
rimposed 0.850 78599.152 -5173.699
0.858 80215.300 -9206.203
0.781 70555.607 -2444.480
0.903 80232.582 1144.473
1.159 101649.095 7152.136
1.072 90738.466 20398.932
1.173 106835.083 5499.988
1.211 110253.716 8467.020
1.223 118045.120 -9832.944
Observation
0.993 93683.851
Forecast -2575.822
0.860 75372.137 17106.765
0.944 96583.956 -19603.741
0.900 80144.389 15405.871
0.899 82536.859 12999.663
0.819 76482.647 12468.736
0.845 90072.628 -18420.504
1.123 113801.009 -11661.881
141 148 155 162 169 176
1.105 104532.593 10627.585
1.168 115853.442 -1878.507
1.190 119749.954 -6947.062
1.214 120556.300 -2822.602
0.988 97949.068 -1534.975
0.900 84998.185 13059.052
0.943 94896.703 -234.251
0.923 90678.535 7825.543
0.913 91604.867 5002.550
0.803 84221.249 -5548.974
0.801 86611.454 -14564.957
1.097 113553.436 -8399.581
1.109 111316.762 1229.039
1.166 118046.587 -447.710
1.175 120540.402 -4721.464
1.197 122854.689 -5444.473
0.958 99827.569 -9641.080
0.894 90346.187 -2088.232
0.904 94676.488 -12656.683
0.850 91667.829 -23217.945
0.820 88688.980 -28841.708
0.817 75605.588 4499.215
0.801 75931.916 166.294
1.095 104117.863 -754.366
1.104 105274.244 -1375.428
1.211 110682.029 14160.138
1.191 112998.240 4932.234
1.225 115720.816 8683.286
1.012 93420.460 17328.319
0.893 88789.347 -178.177
0.815 89958.421 -28014.373
0.756 82164.022 -28701.920
0.756 76684.840 -18933.002
0.835 74658.363 5446.440
0.962 73718.814 51275.503
1.118 107395.159 7546.051
1.125 109249.928 6613.458
1.176 120705.498 -11486.683
1.159 117770.211 -10259.720
1.184 120256.150 -12927.664
1.026 98476.409 4489.680
0.862 87398.291 -10020.462
0.760 78994.484 -17050.436
0.715 71771.587 -12562.840
0.777 70637.888 6503.766
0.803 78704.011 -9791.828
0.976 89543.947 4443.461
1.139 104595.952 6456.315
1.170 105874.326 14220.867
1.219 112125.454 13500.484
1.159 111842.437 190.885
1.133 114353.373 -15988.567
1.051 97850.398 7830.329
0.838 82839.182 -7436.882
0.729 72531.657 -9807.972
0.707 67312.035 -2476.195
0.793 72972.495 4768.148
0.881 75856.514 24739.938
1.002 95101.472 8365.032
1.130 111997.468 -2798.940
1.171 114948.294 183.640
1.216 119819.494 -960.180
1.193 114029.241 10820.821
1.170 112499.338 12457.142
1.015 105627.866 -11659.711
0.830 83424.442 -2594.264
0.780 72425.810 17075.331
0.709 71910.347 637.965
0.790 80885.401 -980.621
0.860 89898.184 -7019.384
1.046 101670.722 14840.680
1.134 116426.031 1234.012
1.160 120965.224 -3652.613
1.201 125427.172 -4942.776
1.173 122813.020 -6717.734
1.145 120065.733 -8650.743
0.984 103553.663 -10138.534
0.832 83961.968 844.681
0.745 79096.259 -11579.126
0.712 70920.687 1049.598
0.844 79245.802 18184.558
0.904 88211.365 15158.342
1.010 109276.073 -12122.560
1.080 117352.228 -17921.842
1.149 118493.533 -3627.892
1.206 122433.864 1766.784
1.167 119855.061 -1932.178
1.169 116909.152 8378.224
0.946 101347.362 -12662.067
0.885 84763.652 17991.309
0.750 77448.719 1825.724
0.669 74301.815 -14266.047
0.779 86634.328 -21467.840
0.872 90668.082 -10371.022
0.978 100261.664 -10296.752
1.063 106142.747 -5584.715
1.126 112377.846 -7395.138
1.194 117191.941 -3722.009
1.163 113006.523 -1395.318
1.145 113073.148 -7599.874
0.943 90874.966 -1011.986
0.865 84884.823 -6366.860
0.748 71354.682 -574.579
0.698 63576.457 9000.515
0.804 74937.875 7882.074
0.906 84745.703 10807.021
1.022 96213.185 14081.004
1.036 105977.574 -8580.349
1.062 111477.985 -20399.690
1.187 116212.859 -2403.511
1.138 112868.712 -7902.641
1.124 110415.818 -6521.105
0.938 90376.515 -1691.220
0.862 82690.913 -802.265
0.758 71427.848 3254.772
0.634 66879.041 -19569.349
0.781 74819.200 -6734.454
0.877 83520.075 -8491.934
1.021 93154.432 -22.775
1.081 94327.573 13535.666
1.081 97857.233 5775.793
1.198 109870.284 3414.696
1.126 105496.922 -3564.311
1.131 103838.099 1943.041
86650.078
79598.425
69946.217
58361.469
71889.603
80650.220
93803.279
99157.698
99049.419
109677.727
102935.643
103294.541
85555.243
78591.628
69060.573
57621.728
70977.426
79625.801
92610.527
97895.525
97787.285
108278.677
101621.198
101974.108
Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation SeasIndex
1 89601.808 1.006
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 70243.906 0.902
3 93199.500 0.797
Smoothing constant(s) 4 77843.426 0.733
Level 0.164 5 79763.677 0.813
Trend 0.817 6 70783.943 0.879
7 80603.455 0.981
Estimation period 8 101789.019 1.115
Deseas Actual 9 90084.204 1.150
MAE 11627.9658 11176.8382 10 103618.819 1.228
RMSE 15189.8215 14365.5057 11 106149.052 1.202
MAPE 12.50% 12.50% 12 112533.890 1.195
0 13 90414.284 1.006
14 77246.178 0.902
Time series of TM Azucar with15forecasts superimposed
85490.114 0.797
16 73425.453 0.733
180000.000
17 71009.097 0.813
160000.000 18 68111.127 0.879
19 81377.055 0.981
140000.000 20 108801.231 1.115
120000.000 21 111137.398 1.150
22 112335.071 1.228
100000.000 23 118720.736 1.202
24 108212.176 1.195
80000.000
25 91108.029 1.006
60000.000 26 92478.902 0.902
27 76980.215 0.797
40000.000
28 95550.260 0.733
20000.000 29 95536.522 0.813
30 88951.383 0.879
0.000 31 71652.124 0.981
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
32 102139.128 1.115
Time 33 115160.178 1.150
34 113974.935 1.228
35 112802.892 1.202
36 117733.698 1.195
Deseasonalized time series of TM Azucar37 with forecasts superimposed
96414.093 1.006
38 98057.237 0.902
160000.000
39 94662.452 0.797
140000.000 40 98504.078 0.733
41 96607.417 0.813
120000.000 42 78672.275 0.879
43 72046.497 0.981
100000.000 44 105153.855 1.115
45 112545.801 1.150 Des
80000.000
46 117598.877 1.228 Des
60000.000 47 115818.938 1.202

40000.000

20000.000
100000.000

80000.000 Des
Des
60000.000
48 117410.216 1.195
40000.000 49 90186.489 1.006
50 88257.955 0.902
20000.000 51 82019.805 0.797
52 68449.884 0.733
0.000
53 59847.272 0.813
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106113120127134141148155162169176
54 80104.803 0.879
Time 55 76098.210 0.981
56 103363.497 1.115
57 103898.816 1.150
58 124842.167 1.228
59 117930.474 1.202
60 124404.102 1.195
61 110748.779 1.006
62 88611.170 0.902
63 61944.048 0.797
64 53462.102 0.733
65 57751.838 0.813
66 80104.803 0.879
67 124994.317 0.981
68 114941.210 1.115
69 115863.386 1.150
70 109218.815 1.228
71 107510.491 1.202
72 107328.486 1.195
73 102966.089 1.006
74 77377.829 0.902
75 61944.048 0.797
76 59208.747 0.733
77 77141.654 0.813
78 68912.183 0.879
79 93987.408 0.981
80 111052.267 1.115
81 120095.193 1.150
82 125625.938 1.228
83 112033.322 1.202
84 98364.806 1.195
85 105680.727 1.006
86 75402.300 0.902
87 62723.685 0.797
88 64835.840 0.733
89 77740.643 0.813
90 100596.452 0.879
91 103466.504 0.981
92 109198.528 1.115
93 115131.934 1.150
94 118859.314 1.228
95 124850.063 1.202
 96 124956.480 1.195
97 93968.155 1.006
98 80830.178 0.902
99 89501.141 0.797
100 72548.312 0.733
101 79904.780 0.813
102 82878.800 0.879
103 116511.402 0.981
104 117660.043 1.115
105 117312.611 1.150
106 120484.396 1.228
107 116095.286 1.202
108 111414.990 1.195
109 93415.129 1.006
110 84806.649 0.902
111 67517.133 0.797
112 71970.285 0.733
113 97430.360 0.813
114 103369.707 0.879
115 97153.513 0.981
116 99430.386 1.115
117 114865.641 1.150
118 124200.648 1.228
119 117922.883 1.202
120 125287.376 1.195
121 88685.295 1.006
122 102754.961 0.902
123 79274.443 0.797
124 60035.768 0.733
125 65166.488 0.813
126 80297.060 0.879
127 89964.912 0.981
128 100558.032 1.115
129 104982.708 1.150
130 113469.932 1.228
131 111611.204 1.202
132 105473.274 1.195
133 89862.981 1.006
134 78517.963 0.902
135 70780.103 0.797
136 72576.973 0.733
137 82819.949 0.813
138 95552.724 0.879
139 110294.189 0.981
140 97397.225 1.115
141 91078.296 1.150
142 113809.348 1.228
143 104966.071 1.202
144 103894.713 1.195
145 88685.295 1.006
146 81888.648 0.902
147 74682.620 0.797
148 47309.691 0.733
149 68084.747 0.813
150 75028.141 0.879
151 93131.657 0.981
152 107863.239 1.115
153 103633.026 1.150
154 113284.980 1.228
155 101932.611 1.202
156 105781.140 1.195
157 1.006
158 0.902
159 0.797
160 0.733
161 0.813
162 0.879
163 0.981
164 1.115
165 1.150
166 1.228
167 1.202
168 1.195
169 1.006
170 0.902
171 0.797
172 0.733
173 0.813
174 0.879
175 0.981
176 1.115
177 1.150
178 1.228
179 1.202
180 1.195
 DeseasObs SmLevel SmTrend DeseasFCast DeseasError Forecast Error
89110.168
77890.445
116916.451
106233.591
98128.108
80551.347
82159.300
91270.485
78354.790
84349.127
88306.347
94198.754 90622.409 -127.670
89918.186 90400.314 -204.844 90494.739 -576.553 90994.018 -579.734
85654.964 89451.848 -812.602 90195.470 -4540.507 81340.941 -4094.763
mposed 107245.218 91686.441 1677.856 88639.246 18605.972 70658.435 14831.679
100204.345 94484.526 2593.414 93364.297 6840.049 68413.358 5012.095
87357.912 95486.042 1292.363 97077.941 -9720.028 78910.046 -7900.949
77509.712 93622.673 -1286.802 96778.405 -19268.693 85043.359 -16932.232
82947.833 90798.344 -2543.416 92335.871 -9388.037 90587.312 -9210.257
97558.079 89778.553 -1298.165 88254.928 9303.151 98425.932 10375.299
96666.752 89821.111 -202.398 88480.388 8186.364 101725.566 9411.832
91444.443 89917.722 41.981 89618.713 1825.731 110092.249 2242.822
98764.844 91401.765 1220.572 89959.703 8805.141 108136.475 10584.261
Observation
90581.177 Forecast
92288.046 947.357 92622.337 -2041.161 110650.634 -2438.458
90608.124 92805.121 595.689 93235.403 -2627.279 93749.803 -2641.774
102545.876 94898.544 1819.780 93400.810 9145.066 84231.611 8247.291
96569.762 96693.993 1799.895 96718.324 -148.562 77098.641 -118.426
130398.259 103719.030 6070.379 98493.888 31904.371 72172.103 23378.157
117532.421 111057.521 7106.801 109789.408 7743.013 89242.595 6293.927
101225.693 115390.197 4839.521 118164.322 -16938.629 103836.087 -14884.704
73035.187 112500.429 -1477.591 120229.718 -47194.531 117952.935 -46300.811
148 155 162 169 176
91584.415 107839.308 -4079.475 111022.838 -19438.423 123817.747 -21678.619
100165.746 103171.212 -4560.553 103759.834 -3594.087 119292.287 -4132.109
92779.347 97655.635 -5341.089 98610.659 -5831.312 121138.420 -7163.485
93841.737 92564.662 -5136.671 92314.546 1527.190 110967.126 1835.766
98551.358 89249.722 -3647.779 87427.991 11123.367 104445.245 13288.453
s superimposed 95885.074 87286.064 -2271.355 85601.943 10283.131 86074.227 10339.866
108731.452 88898.921 903.194 85014.709 23716.742 76668.778 21388.459
118751.688 94543.334 4778.170 89802.115 28949.573 71585.411 23077.041
134429.360 105071.297 9477.449 99321.504 35107.856 72778.545 25725.533
118849.875 115253.163 10053.166 114548.745 4301.129 93111.234 3496.183
89528.182 119446.760 5264.167 125306.329 -35778.148 110112.077 -31439.802
73437.173 116313.562 -1598.960 124710.927 -51273.754 122349.283 -50302.786
94287.610 111369.170 -4333.166 114714.603 -20426.992 127934.971 -22781.116
97891.774 105538.407
Deseas Observation
-5557.145 107036.004 -9144.229 123058.887 -10513.086
95729.355 99284.905
Deseas Forecast -6126.274 99981.261 -4251.907 122822.138 -5223.261
96350.812 93681.431 -5698.992 93158.631 3192.182 111981.761 3837.177
 Deseas Observation
Deseas Forecast

98280.581 89669.018 -4320.559 87982.438 10298.143 105107.611 12302.605

89691.641 86059.764 -3739.212 85348.459 4343.182 85819.345 4367.144
97865.449 84866.419 -1658.487 82320.552 15544.898 74239.107 14018.848
102891.802 86431.660 976.251 83207.932 19683.870 66328.883 15690.922
93414.144 88391.582 1780.201 87407.910 6006.234 64048.773 4401.111
73626.239 87462.034 -434.464 90171.783 -16545.544 73296.358 -13449.086
55162169176
91158.383 87704.095 118.456 87027.571 4130.812 76474.880 3629.923
77567.094 86142.963 -1254.264 87822.551 -10255.458 86159.461 -10061.251
92682.262 86165.091 -211.075 84888.699 7793.563 94671.759 8691.738
90370.670 86677.354 380.106 85954.016 4416.654 98821.005 5077.811
101625.631 89443.364 2330.094 87057.460 14568.171 106945.874 17896.293
98107.418 92810.803 3177.911 91773.458 6333.960 110316.708 7613.766
104134.954 97322.865 4268.307 95988.714 8146.240 114672.253 9731.849
110141.107 102991.438 5412.738 101591.172 8549.935 102151.672 8597.107
98257.114 106742.340 4054.527 108404.177 -10147.062 97762.091 -9150.921
77707.265 105377.614 -374.603 110796.868 -33089.603 88321.298 -26377.250
72960.189 99755.195 -4663.619 105003.011 -32042.822 76941.710 -23479.608
71048.362 91153.896 -7881.866 95091.576 -24043.214 77295.425 -19543.587
91158.383 84563.618 -6826.257 83272.030 7886.353 73174.724 6930.079
127407.016 85872.014 -177.843 77737.361 49669.656 76265.253 48729.064
103063.573 88538.846 2147.097 85694.170 17369.403 95570.058 19371.152
100777.393 92338.671 3497.864 90685.943 10091.450 104261.284 11602.102
88907.709 94701.766 2570.422 95836.535 -6928.827 117730.543 -8511.728
89438.941 95989.297 1521.922 97272.188 -7833.247 116926.482 -9415.991
89841.466 96255.104 495.305 97511.219 -7669.752 116491.103 -9162.617
102401.120 97675.855 1251.668 96750.409 5650.711 97284.202 5681.887
85800.946 96777.716 -505.359 98927.523 -13126.577 89215.764 -11837.935
77707.265 93231.857 -2990.346 96272.357 -18565.092 76743.140 -14799.092
80802.685 88695.667 -4253.757 90241.511 -9438.827 66125.115 -6916.368
94902.402 86155.078 -2853.593 84441.909 10460.492 68638.817 8502.837
78421.305 82502.233 -3506.818 83301.485 -4880.180 73200.608 -4288.425
95801.597 81747.849 -1257.266 78995.415 16806.183 77499.483 16487.925
99576.500 83616.381 1297.434 80490.583 19085.917 89766.779 21285.488
104458.198 88114.698 3913.501 84913.815 19544.383 97625.091 22470.102
102263.646 93704.511 5283.542 92028.199 10235.447 113052.187 12573.751
93201.524 98040.364 4509.000 98988.053 -5786.529 118989.046 -6955.724
82338.238 99239.285 1803.688 102549.364 -20211.126 122509.888 -24145.082
105100.863 101707.554 2346.847 101042.973 4057.890 101600.449 4080.278
83610.367 100706.178 -389.641 104054.401 -20444.035 93839.335 -18437.035
78685.300 96773.879 -3285.038 100316.537 -21631.237 79966.943 -17243.258
88482.027 92668.849 -3955.214 93488.841 -5006.814 68504.619 -3668.779
95639.299 89847.887 -3028.195 88713.636 6925.664 72111.100 5629.543
114477.653 91349.377 673.896 86819.692 27657.962 76292.208 24304.244
105463.663 94224.474 2472.927 92023.273 13440.391 90280.633 13185.871
97914.320 96896.702 2635.815 96697.401 1216.919 107841.364 1357.164
100141.180 99632.201 2717.286 99532.517 608.663 114432.157 699.777
96755.392 101433.314 1968.502 102349.487 -5594.095 125731.389 -6872.075
103863.886 103477.491 2030.351 103401.815 462.070 124294.629 555.434
104597.333 105358.723 1908.477 105507.842 -910.509 126044.213 -1087.733
93452.557 105004.706 59.351 107267.200 -13814.643 107859.017 -13890.862
89629.107 102536.196 -2006.658 105064.056 -15434.949 94749.872 -13919.694
112276.951 102453.472 -434.236 100529.538 11747.413 80136.736 9364.405
99007.304 101525.957 -837.391 102019.236 -3011.933 74755.327 -2207.015
98301.697 100297.656 -1156.879 100688.566 -2386.869 81844.952 -1940.172
94315.161 98350.461 -1802.801 99140.777 -4825.616 87119.277 -4240.477
118760.360 100185.548 1170.427 96547.660 22212.700 94719.343 21792.059
105501.451 102034.901 1725.310 101355.975 4145.476 113036.819 4623.224
102037.922 103478.143 1494.777 103760.211 -1722.289 119292.720 -1980.109
98078.262 103843.747 571.909 104972.920 -6894.658 128954.150 -8469.754
96580.709 103132.487 -476.819 104415.656 -7834.947 125513.321 -9418.035
93262.157 101117.244 -1734.165 102655.668 -9393.511 122636.883 -11221.893
92902.566 98321.732 -2601.599 99383.079 -6480.514 99931.397 -6516.268
94038.445 95444.715 -2826.697 95720.133 -1681.689 86323.246 -1516.597
84698.561 91321.007 -3886.737 92618.017 -7919.456 73830.097 -6312.964
98218.465 89200.453 -2443.245 87434.270 10784.195 64068.089 7902.196
119862.288 92178.996 1987.957 86757.208 33105.080 70520.813 26909.547
117633.587 98010.204 5129.028 94166.953 23466.634 82748.564 20621.143
99028.816 102466.048 4578.838 103139.232 -4110.416 101186.090 -4032.577
89155.585 104115.064 2184.308 107044.886 -17889.301 119381.352 -19950.966
99909.560 105252.880 1329.015 106299.372 -6389.812 122211.984 -7346.343
101103.413 105684.656 595.706 106581.895 -5478.481 130930.697 -6730.049
98101.103 104940.803 -499.109 106280.362 -8179.259 127754.799 -9831.916
104874.317 104512.546 -441.202 104441.693 432.623 124770.546 516.831
88198.684 101471.798 -2565.799 104071.345 -15872.661 104645.529 -15960.234
113940.555 101368.285 -553.384 98905.999 15034.557 89196.353 13558.607
99447.814 100591.006 -736.372 100814.901 -1367.087 80364.211 -1089.768
81931.328 96919.242 -3135.454 99854.634 -17923.306 73169.199 -13133.431
80170.127 91554.210 -4957.678 93783.788 -13613.661 76232.386 -11065.898
91377.169 87379.481 -4317.777 86596.531 4780.638 76096.107 4200.953
91701.457 84476.680 -3161.324 83061.704 8639.754 81488.769 8476.143
90166.704 82764.987 -1976.547 81315.357 8851.348 90686.604 9871.428
91313.434 82512.171 -567.749 80788.439 10524.994 92882.162 12100.546
92368.258 83651.587 827.508 81944.422 10423.836 100664.755 12805.177
92850.361 85850.100 1948.024 84479.095 8371.266 101548.486 10062.718
88288.524 87878.440 2013.666 87798.125 490.400 104887.422 585.853
89369.907 89806.582 1943.768 89892.106 -522.198 90388.060 -525.079
87065.191 90983.038 1316.647 91750.351 -4685.159 82743.178 -4225.215
88791.876 91725.193 847.118 92299.685 -3507.810 73576.340 -2796.237
99046.417 93632.608 1713.694 92572.311 6474.106 67833.025 4743.948
101888.042 96417.676 2589.323 95346.302 6541.740 77502.480 5317.469
108737.947 100600.686 3891.836 99006.999 9730.948 87001.721 8551.004
112423.140 105791.360 4953.370 104492.522 7930.618 102513.753 7780.436
87332.524 106910.393 1819.585 110744.729 -23412.205 123507.587 -26110.362
79219.445 103896.887 -2130.478 108729.978 -29510.532 125006.442 -33928.147
92644.554 100272.477 -3351.462 101766.410 -9121.856 125015.107 -11205.758
87322.215 95348.970 -4636.287 96921.015 -9598.800 116504.352 -11538.281
86967.158 90099.260 -5137.635 90712.684 -3745.526 108369.280 -4474.567
88198.684 85491.774 -4704.346 84961.625 3237.059 85430.376 3254.919
90802.799 82427.697 -3363.763 80787.428 10015.371 72856.491 9032.157
93687.486 81458.908 -1406.362 79063.934 14623.552 63025.512 11657.109
64563.942 77515.898 -3479.552 80052.546 -15488.605 58659.078 -11349.386
83760.273 75628.884 -2177.979 74036.346 9723.926 60180.629 7904.118
85381.197 75404.790 -581.078 73450.905 11930.293 64544.478 10483.663
94929.328 78116.511 2110.112 74823.712 20105.616 73406.779 19724.877
96717.016 82927.339 4317.394 80226.623 16490.393 89472.399 18390.841
90139.488 87718.821 4704.865 87244.733 2894.755 100304.938 3328.089
92217.701 92389.951 4677.293 92423.686 -205.985 113538.023 -253.043
84798.652 95057.954 3035.110 97067.244 -12268.592 116680.128 -14747.517
88546.229 96529.530 1757.241 98093.064 -9546.834 117186.200 -11405.060
98286.771 98829.040
100044.012 90222.647
101801.253 81150.478
103558.494 75883.229
105315.735 85606.158
107072.976 94089.642
108830.216 106769.305
110587.457 123332.190
112344.698 129162.273
114101.939 140168.708
115859.180 139269.062
117616.421 140509.643
119373.662 120032.272
121130.903 109239.429
122888.144 97959.812
124645.385 91334.800
126402.626 102746.690
128159.867 112619.603
129917.108 127456.875
131674.349 146849.255
133431.589 153405.792
135188.830 166072.932
136946.071 164616.656
138703.312 165700.952
Season Ratio Season
1.000 1.000
2.000 2.000
3.000 3.000
4.000 4.000
5.000 5.000
6.000 6.000
7.000 0.898 7.000
8.000 1.130 8.000
9.000 1.001 9.000
10.000 1.158 10.000
11.000 1.193 11.000
12.000 1.272 12.000
1.000 1.023
2.000 0.871
3.000 0.951
4.000 0.806
5.000 0.772
6.000 0.737
7.000 0.882
8.000 1.171
9.000 1.193
10.000 1.198
11.000 1.241
12.000 1.109
1.000 0.929
2.000 0.950
3.000 0.792
4.000 0.980
5.000 0.982
6.000 0.913
7.000 0.731
8.000 1.037
9.000 1.158
10.000 1.136
11.000 1.122
12.000 1.176
1.000 0.967
2.000 0.982
3.000 0.948
4.000 0.986
5.000 0.964
6.000 0.784
7.000 0.720
8.000 1.058
9.000 1.143
10.000 1.217
11.000 1.234
12.000 1.271
1.000 0.974
2.000 0.952
3.000 0.889
4.000 0.742
5.000 0.646
6.000 0.861
7.000 0.808
8.000 1.088
9.000 1.103
10.000 1.346
11.000 1.282
12.000 1.353
1.000 1.179
2.000 0.918
3.000 0.636
4.000 0.549
5.000 0.600
6.000 0.842
7.000 1.329
8.000 1.233
9.000 1.249
10.000 1.174
11.000 1.143
12.000 1.137
1.000 1.111
2.000 0.848
3.000 0.679
4.000 0.643
5.000 0.830
6.000 0.743
7.000 1.016
8.000 1.200
9.000 1.299
10.000 1.354
11.000 1.204
12.000 1.042
1.000 1.100
2.000 0.782
3.000 0.653
4.000 0.678
5.000 0.811
6.000 1.032
7.000 1.054
8.000 1.116
9.000 1.160
10.000 1.181
11.000 1.235
12.000 1.244
1.000 0.938
2.000 0.799
3.000 0.881
4.000 0.713
5.000 0.788
6.000 0.825
7.000 1.166
8.000 1.176
9.000 1.181
10.000 1.225
11.000 1.172
12.000 1.107
1.000 0.928
2.000 0.856
3.000 0.687
4.000 0.732
5.000 0.989
6.000 1.042
7.000 0.976
8.000 0.993
9.000 1.133
10.000 1.225
11.000 1.185
12.000 1.289
1.000 0.924
2.000 1.074
3.000 0.831
4.000 0.635
5.000 0.695
6.000 0.866
7.000 0.979
8.000 1.106
9.000 1.172
10.000 1.264
11.000 1.226
12.000 1.142
1.000 0.957
2.000 0.830
3.000 0.754
4.000 0.778
5.000 0.890
6.000 1.031
7.000 1.191
8.000 1.051
9.000 0.980
10.000 1.236
11.000 1.161
12.000 1.168
1.000 1.015
2.000 0.940
3.000 0.848
4.000 0.534
5.000 0.770
6.000 0.849
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
SeasIndex Average
1.004 0.998
0.900
0.796
0.731
0.811
0.877
0.979
1.113
1.148
1.226
1.200
1.192
Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
1 89601.808
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 70243.906
3 93199.500
Smoothing constant(s) 4 77843.426
Level 1.000 5 79763.677
Trend 0.000 6 70783.943
7 80603.455
Estimation period 8 101789.019
9 90084.204
MAE 11057.2273 10 103618.819
RMSE 14232.0810 11 106149.052
MAPE 12.48% 12 112533.890 89684.558 -208.786
13 90414.284 90414.284 -208.786
14 77246.178 77246.178 -208.786
Time series of TM
15 Azucar with forecasts
85490.114 superimposed
85490.114 -208.786
16 73425.453 73425.453 -208.786
140000.000
17 71009.097 71009.097 -208.786
18 68111.127 68111.127 -208.786
120000.000
19 81377.055 81377.055 -208.786
20 108801.231 108801.231 -208.786
100000.000
21 111137.398 111137.398 -208.786
22 112335.071 112335.071 -208.786
80000.000
23 118720.736 118720.736 -208.786
24 108212.176 108212.176 -208.786
60000.000 25 91108.029 91108.029 -208.786
26 92478.902 92478.902 -208.786
40000.000 27 76980.215 76980.215 -208.786
28 95550.260 95550.260 -208.786
20000.000 29 95536.522 95536.522 -208.786
30 88951.383 88951.383 -208.786
0.000 31 71652.124 71652.124 -208.786
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
32 102139.128 102139.128 -208.786
33 Time
115160.178 115160.178 -208.786
34 113974.935 113974.935 -208.786
35 112802.892 112802.892 -208.786
36 117733.698 117733.698 -208.786
Forecast
37 errors for TM
96414.093 Azucar
96414.093 -208.786
38 98057.237 98057.237 -208.786
50000.000
39 94662.452 94662.452 -208.786
40000.000 40 98504.078 98504.078 -208.786
41 96607.417 96607.417 -208.786
30000.000
42 78672.275 78672.275 -208.786
20000.000 43 72046.497 72046.497 -208.786
44 105153.855 105153.855 -208.786
10000.000
45 112545.801 112545.801 -208.786
0.000 46 117598.877 117598.877 -208.786
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 514756 61 66 71
115818.93876 81 86 91 96
115818.938 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 1
-208.786
-10000.000

-20000.000

-30000.000
10000.000

0.000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 1
-10000.000
48 117410.216 117410.216 -208.786
-20000.000 49 90186.489 90186.489 -208.786
50 88257.955 88257.955 -208.786
-30000.000
51 82019.805 82019.805 -208.786
-40000.000 52 68449.884 68449.884 -208.786
53 59847.272 59847.272 -208.786
-50000.000
54 80104.803 80104.803 -208.786
55 Time
76098.210 76098.210 -208.786
56 103363.497 103363.497 -208.786
57 103898.816 103898.816 -208.786
58 124842.167 124842.167 -208.786
59 117930.474 117930.474 -208.786
60 124404.102 124404.102 -208.786
61 110748.779 110748.779 -208.786
62 88611.170 88611.170 -208.786
63 61944.048 61944.048 -208.786
64 53462.102 53462.102 -208.786
65 57751.838 57751.838 -208.786
66 80104.803 80104.803 -208.786
67 124994.317 124994.317 -208.786
68 114941.210 114941.210 -208.786
69 115863.386 115863.386 -208.786
70 109218.815 109218.815 -208.786
71 107510.491 107510.491 -208.786
72 107328.486 107328.486 -208.786
73 102966.089 102966.089 -208.786
74 77377.829 77377.829 -208.786
75 61944.048 61944.048 -208.786
76 59208.747 59208.747 -208.786
77 77141.654 77141.654 -208.786
78 68912.183 68912.183 -208.786
79 93987.408 93987.408 -208.786
80 111052.267 111052.267 -208.786
81 120095.193 120095.193 -208.786
82 125625.938 125625.938 -208.786
83 112033.322 112033.322 -208.786
84 98364.806 98364.806 -208.786
85 105680.727 105680.727 -208.786
86 75402.300 75402.300 -208.786
87 62723.685 62723.685 -208.786
88 64835.840 64835.840 -208.786
89 77740.643 77740.643 -208.786
90 100596.452 100596.452 -208.786
91 103466.504 103466.504 -208.786
92 109198.528 109198.528 -208.786
93 115131.934 115131.934 -208.786
94 118859.314 118859.314 -208.786
95 124850.063 124850.063 -208.786
 96 124956.480 124956.480 -208.786
97 93968.155 93968.155 -208.786
98 80830.178 80830.178 -208.786
99 89501.141 89501.141 -208.786
100 72548.312 72548.312 -208.786
101 79904.780 79904.780 -208.786
102 82878.800 82878.800 -208.786
103 116511.402 116511.402 -208.786
104 117660.043 117660.043 -208.786
105 117312.611 117312.611 -208.786
106 120484.396 120484.396 -208.786
107 116095.286 116095.286 -208.786
108 111414.990 111414.990 -208.786
109 93415.129 93415.129 -208.786
110 84806.649 84806.649 -208.786
111 67517.133 67517.133 -208.786
112 71970.285 71970.285 -208.786
113 97430.360 97430.360 -208.786
114 103369.707 103369.707 -208.786
115 97153.513 97153.513 -208.786
116 99430.386 99430.386 -208.786
117 114865.641 114865.641 -208.786
118 124200.648 124200.648 -208.786
119 117922.883 117922.883 -208.786
120 125287.376 125287.376 -208.786
121 88685.295 88685.295 -208.786
122 102754.961 102754.961 -208.786
123 79274.443 79274.443 -208.786
124 60035.768 60035.768 -208.786
125 65166.488 65166.488 -208.786
126 80297.060 80297.060 -208.786
127 89964.912 89964.912 -208.786
128 100558.032 100558.032 -208.786
129 104982.708 104982.708 -208.786
130 113469.932 113469.932 -208.786
131 111611.204 111611.204 -208.786
132 105473.274 105473.274 -208.786
133 89862.981 89862.981 -208.786
134 78517.963 78517.963 -208.786
135 70780.103 70780.103 -208.786
136 72576.973 72576.973 -208.786
137 82819.949 82819.949 -208.786
138 95552.724 95552.724 -208.786
139 110294.189 110294.189 -208.786
140 97397.225 97397.225 -208.786
141 91078.296 91078.296 -208.786
142 113809.348 113809.348 -208.786
143 104966.071 104966.071 -208.786
144 103894.713 103894.713 -208.786
145 88685.295 88685.295 -208.786
146 81888.648 81888.648 -208.786
147 74682.620 74682.620 -208.786
148 47309.691 47309.691 -208.786
149 68084.747 68084.747 -208.786
150 75028.141 75028.141 -208.786
151 93131.657 93131.657 -208.786
152 107863.239 107863.239 -208.786
153 103633.026 103633.026 -208.786
154 113284.980 113284.980 -208.786
155 101932.611 101932.611 -208.786
156 105781.140 105781.140 -208.786
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
 Forecast Error

89475.772 938.512
90205.498 -12959.320
rimposed 77037.392 8452.722
85281.328 -11855.875
73216.667 -2207.570
70800.311 -2689.184
67902.341 13474.714
81168.269 27632.962
108592.445 2544.953
110928.612 1406.459
112126.285 6594.451
Observation
118511.950 -10299.774
Forecast
108003.390 -16895.361
90899.243 1579.659
92270.116 -15289.901
76771.429 18778.831
95341.474 195.048
95327.736 -6376.353
88742.597 -17090.473
141 148 155 162 169 176
71443.338 30695.790
101930.342 13229.836
114951.392 -976.457
113766.149 -963.257
112594.106 5139.592
117524.912 -21110.819
96205.307 1851.930
97848.451 -3185.999
94453.666 4050.412
98295.292 -1687.875
96398.631 -17726.356
78463.489 -6416.992
71837.711 33316.144
104945.069 7600.732
112337.015 5261.862
1 106 111 116 121117390.091
126 131 136 141 146 151 156
-1571.153
1 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156
115610.152 1800.064
117201.430 -27014.941
89977.703 -1719.748
88049.169 -6029.364
81811.019 -13361.135
68241.098 -8393.826
59638.486 20466.317
79896.017 -3797.807
75889.424 27474.073
103154.711 744.105
103690.030 21152.137
124633.381 -6702.907
117721.688 6682.414
124195.316 -13446.537
110539.993 -21928.823
88402.384 -26458.336
61735.262 -8273.160
53253.316 4498.522
57543.052 22561.751
79896.017 45098.300
124785.531 -9844.321
114732.424 1130.962
115654.600 -6435.785
109010.029 -1499.538
107301.705 26.781
107119.700 -4153.611
102757.303 -25379.474
77169.043 -15224.995
61735.262 -2526.515
58999.961 18141.693
76932.868 -8020.685
68703.397 25284.011
93778.622 17273.645
110843.481 9251.712
119886.407 5739.531
125417.152 -13383.830
111824.536 -13459.730
98156.020 7524.707
105471.941 -30069.641
75193.514 -12469.829
62514.899 2320.941
64627.054 13113.589
77531.857 23064.595
100387.666 3078.838
103257.718 5940.810
108989.742 6142.192
114923.148 3936.166
118650.528 6199.535
124641.276 315.204
124747.694 -30779.539
93759.369 -12929.191
80621.392 8879.749
89292.355 -16744.043
72339.526 7565.254
79695.994 3182.806
82670.014 33841.388
116302.616 1357.427
117451.257 -138.646
117103.825 3380.571
120275.610 -4180.324
115886.500 -4471.510
111206.204 -17791.075
93206.343 -8399.694
84597.863 -17080.730
67308.347 4661.938
71761.499 25668.861
97221.574 6148.133
103160.921 -6007.408
96944.727 2485.659
99221.600 15644.041
114656.855 9543.793
123991.862 -6068.979
117714.097 7573.280
125078.590 -36393.295
88476.509 14278.452
102546.175 -23271.732
79065.657 -19029.889
59826.982 5339.506
64957.702 15339.358
80088.274 9876.638
89756.126 10801.906
100349.246 4633.462
104773.922 8696.010
113261.146 -1649.942
111402.418 -5929.144
105264.488 -15401.508
89654.194 -11136.231
78309.177 -7529.074
70571.317 2005.656
72368.186 10451.763
82611.163 12941.562
95343.938 14950.251
110085.403 -12688.178
97188.439 -6110.143
90869.509 22939.839
113600.562 -8634.491
104757.285 -862.572
103685.927 -15000.632
88476.509 -6587.861
81679.862 -6997.242
74473.834 -27164.143
47100.905 20983.842
67875.960 7152.181
74819.355 18312.302
92922.870 14940.369
107654.453 -4021.427
103424.240 9860.740
113076.194 -11143.583
101723.825 4057.315
105572.354
105363.567
105154.781
104945.995
104737.209
104528.422
104319.636
104110.850
103902.064
103693.277
103484.491
103275.705
103066.919
102858.132
102649.346
102440.560
102231.774
102022.987
101814.201
101605.415
101396.628
101187.842
100979.056
100770.270
Forecasting results for TM Azucar Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
1 89601.808
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 70243.906
3 93199.500
Smoothing constant(s) 4 77843.426
Level 1.000 5 79763.677
Trend 0.000 6 70783.943
7 80603.455
Estimation period 8 101789.019
9 90084.204
MAE 11057.2273 10 103618.819
RMSE 14232.0810 11 106149.052
MAPE 12.48% 12 112533.890 89684.558 -208.786
13 90414.284 90414.284 -208.786
14 77246.178 77246.178 -208.786
Time series of TM
15 Azucar with forecasts
85490.114 superimposed
85490.114 -208.786
16 73425.453 73425.453 -208.786
140000.000
17 71009.097 71009.097 -208.786
18 68111.127 68111.127 -208.786
120000.000
19 81377.055 81377.055 -208.786
20 108801.231 108801.231 -208.786
100000.000
21 111137.398 111137.398 -208.786
22 112335.071 112335.071 -208.786
80000.000
23 118720.736 118720.736 -208.786
24 108212.176 108212.176 -208.786
60000.000 25 91108.029 91108.029 -208.786
26 92478.902 92478.902 -208.786
40000.000 27 76980.215 76980.215 -208.786
28 95550.260 95550.260 -208.786
20000.000 29 95536.522 95536.522 -208.786
30 88951.383 88951.383 -208.786
0.000 31 71652.124 71652.124 -208.786
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176
32 102139.128 102139.128 -208.786
33 Time
115160.178 115160.178 -208.786
34 113974.935 113974.935 -208.786
35 112802.892 112802.892 -208.786
36 117733.698 117733.698 -208.786
37 96414.093 96414.093 -208.786
38 98057.237 98057.237 -208.786
39 94662.452 94662.452 -208.786
40 98504.078 98504.078 -208.786
41 96607.417 96607.417 -208.786
42 78672.275 78672.275 -208.786
43 72046.497 72046.497 -208.786
44 105153.855 105153.855 -208.786
45 112545.801 112545.801 -208.786
46 117598.877 117598.877 -208.786
47 115818.938 115818.938 -208.786
48 117410.216 117410.216 -208.786
49 90186.489 90186.489 -208.786
50 88257.955 88257.955 -208.786
51 82019.805 82019.805 -208.786
52 68449.884 68449.884 -208.786
53 59847.272 59847.272 -208.786
54 80104.803 80104.803 -208.786
55 76098.210 76098.210 -208.786
56 103363.497 103363.497 -208.786
57 103898.816 103898.816 -208.786
58 124842.167 124842.167 -208.786
59 117930.474 117930.474 -208.786
60 124404.102 124404.102 -208.786
61 110748.779 110748.779 -208.786
62 88611.170 88611.170 -208.786
63 61944.048 61944.048 -208.786
64 53462.102 53462.102 -208.786
65 57751.838 57751.838 -208.786
66 80104.803 80104.803 -208.786
67 124994.317 124994.317 -208.786
68 114941.210 114941.210 -208.786
69 115863.386 115863.386 -208.786
70 109218.815 109218.815 -208.786
71 107510.491 107510.491 -208.786
72 107328.486 107328.486 -208.786
73 102966.089 102966.089 -208.786
74 77377.829 77377.829 -208.786
75 61944.048 61944.048 -208.786
76 59208.747 59208.747 -208.786
77 77141.654 77141.654 -208.786
78 68912.183 68912.183 -208.786
79 93987.408 93987.408 -208.786
80 111052.267 111052.267 -208.786
81 120095.193 120095.193 -208.786
82 125625.938 125625.938 -208.786
83 112033.322 112033.322 -208.786
84 98364.806 98364.806 -208.786
85 105680.727 105680.727 -208.786
86 75402.300 75402.300 -208.786
87 62723.685 62723.685 -208.786
88 64835.840 64835.840 -208.786
89 77740.643 77740.643 -208.786
90 100596.452 100596.452 -208.786
91 103466.504 103466.504 -208.786
92 109198.528 109198.528 -208.786
93 115131.934 115131.934 -208.786
94 118859.314 118859.314 -208.786
95 124850.063 124850.063 -208.786
 96 124956.480 124956.480 -208.786
97 93968.155 93968.155 -208.786
98 80830.178 80830.178 -208.786
99 89501.141 89501.141 -208.786
100 72548.312 72548.312 -208.786
101 79904.780 79904.780 -208.786
102 82878.800 82878.800 -208.786
103 116511.402 116511.402 -208.786
104 117660.043 117660.043 -208.786
105 117312.611 117312.611 -208.786
106 120484.396 120484.396 -208.786
107 116095.286 116095.286 -208.786
108 111414.990 111414.990 -208.786
109 93415.129 93415.129 -208.786
110 84806.649 84806.649 -208.786
111 67517.133 67517.133 -208.786
112 71970.285 71970.285 -208.786
113 97430.360 97430.360 -208.786
114 103369.707 103369.707 -208.786
115 97153.513 97153.513 -208.786
116 99430.386 99430.386 -208.786
117 114865.641 114865.641 -208.786
118 124200.648 124200.648 -208.786
119 117922.883 117922.883 -208.786
120 125287.376 125287.376 -208.786
121 88685.295 88685.295 -208.786
122 102754.961 102754.961 -208.786
123 79274.443 79274.443 -208.786
124 60035.768 60035.768 -208.786
125 65166.488 65166.488 -208.786
126 80297.060 80297.060 -208.786
127 89964.912 89964.912 -208.786
128 100558.032 100558.032 -208.786
129 104982.708 104982.708 -208.786
130 113469.932 113469.932 -208.786
131 111611.204 111611.204 -208.786
132 105473.274 105473.274 -208.786
133 89862.981 89862.981 -208.786
134 78517.963 78517.963 -208.786
135 70780.103 70780.103 -208.786
136 72576.973 72576.973 -208.786
137 82819.949 82819.949 -208.786
138 95552.724 95552.724 -208.786
139 110294.189 110294.189 -208.786
140 97397.225 97397.225 -208.786
141 91078.296 91078.296 -208.786
142 113809.348 113809.348 -208.786
143 104966.071 104966.071 -208.786
144 103894.713 103894.713 -208.786
145 88685.295 88685.295 -208.786
146 81888.648 81888.648 -208.786
147 74682.620 74682.620 -208.786
148 47309.691 47309.691 -208.786
149 68084.747 68084.747 -208.786
150 75028.141 75028.141 -208.786
151 93131.657 93131.657 -208.786
152 107863.239 107863.239 -208.786
153 103633.026 103633.026 -208.786
154 113284.980 113284.980 -208.786
155 101932.611 101932.611 -208.786
156 105781.140 105781.140 -208.786
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
 Forecast Error

89475.772 938.512
90205.498 -12959.320
rimposed 77037.392 8452.722
85281.328 -11855.875
73216.667 -2207.570
70800.311 -2689.184
67902.341 13474.714
81168.269 27632.962
108592.445 2544.953
110928.612 1406.459
112126.285 6594.451
Observation
118511.950 -10299.774
Forecast
108003.390 -16895.361
90899.243 1579.659
92270.116 -15289.901
76771.429 18778.831
95341.474 195.048
95327.736 -6376.353
88742.597 -17090.473
141 148 155 162 169 176
71443.338 30695.790
101930.342 13229.836
114951.392 -976.457
113766.149 -963.257
112594.106 5139.592
117524.912 -21110.819
96205.307 1851.930
97848.451 -3185.999
94453.666 4050.412
98295.292 -1687.875
96398.631 -17726.356
78463.489 -6416.992
71837.711 33316.144
104945.069 7600.732
112337.015 5261.862
117390.091 -1571.153
115610.152 1800.064
117201.430 -27014.941
89977.703 -1719.748
88049.169 -6029.364
81811.019 -13361.135
68241.098 -8393.826
59638.486 20466.317
79896.017 -3797.807
75889.424 27474.073
103154.711 744.105
103690.030 21152.137
124633.381 -6702.907
117721.688 6682.414
124195.316 -13446.537
110539.993 -21928.823
88402.384 -26458.336
61735.262 -8273.160
53253.316 4498.522
57543.052 22561.751
79896.017 45098.300
124785.531 -9844.321
114732.424 1130.962
115654.600 -6435.785
109010.029 -1499.538
107301.705 26.781
107119.700 -4153.611
102757.303 -25379.474
77169.043 -15224.995
61735.262 -2526.515
58999.961 18141.693
76932.868 -8020.685
68703.397 25284.011
93778.622 17273.645
110843.481 9251.712
119886.407 5739.531
125417.152 -13383.830
111824.536 -13459.730
98156.020 7524.707
105471.941 -30069.641
75193.514 -12469.829
62514.899 2320.941
64627.054 13113.589
77531.857 23064.595
100387.666 3078.838
103257.718 5940.810
108989.742 6142.192
114923.148 3936.166
118650.528 6199.535
124641.276 315.204
124747.694 -30779.539
93759.369 -12929.191
80621.392 8879.749
89292.355 -16744.043
72339.526 7565.254
79695.994 3182.806
82670.014 33841.388
116302.616 1357.427
117451.257 -138.646
117103.825 3380.571
120275.610 -4180.324
115886.500 -4471.510
111206.204 -17791.075
93206.343 -8399.694
84597.863 -17080.730
67308.347 4661.938
71761.499 25668.861
97221.574 6148.133
103160.921 -6007.408
96944.727 2485.659
99221.600 15644.041
114656.855 9543.793
123991.862 -6068.979
117714.097 7573.280
125078.590 -36393.295
88476.509 14278.452
102546.175 -23271.732
79065.657 -19029.889
59826.982 5339.506
64957.702 15339.358
80088.274 9876.638
89756.126 10801.906
100349.246 4633.462
104773.922 8696.010
113261.146 -1649.942
111402.418 -5929.144
105264.488 -15401.508
89654.194 -11136.231
78309.177 -7529.074
70571.317 2005.656
72368.186 10451.763
82611.163 12941.562
95343.938 14950.251
110085.403 -12688.178
97188.439 -6110.143
90869.509 22939.839
113600.562 -8634.491
104757.285 -862.572
103685.927 -15000.632
88476.509 -6587.861
81679.862 -6997.242
74473.834 -27164.143
47100.905 20983.842
67875.960 7152.181
74819.355 18312.302
92922.870 14940.369
107654.453 -4021.427
103424.240 9860.740
113076.194 -11143.583
101723.825 4057.315
105572.354
105363.567
105154.781
104945.995
104737.209
104528.422
104319.636
104110.850
103902.064
103693.277
103484.491
103275.705
103066.919
102858.132
102649.346
102440.560
102231.774
102022.987
101814.201
101605.415
101396.628
101187.842
100979.056
100770.270