Ámbito Indicador Unidad 1983-1 1983-2 1983-3 1983-4 1983-5 1983-6 1983-7

Total Nacional
ProducciónMiles de to 65.3 67.5 68.2 65.6 66 67.3 60.7

Fuente(s):
Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego.
1983-8 1983-9 1983-10 1983-11 1983-12 1984-1 1984-2 1984-3 1984-4 1984-5
61.6 63.2 56.7 54.6 55.5 63.4 65.5 66.1 65.4 65.7
1984-6 1984-7 1984-8 1984-9 1984-10 1984-11 1984-12 1985-1 1985-2 1985-3
66.9 65.3 66.3 67.8 64 61.5 62.5 65.5 67.7 68.3
1985-4 1985-5 1985-6 1985-7 1985-8 1985-9 1985-10 1985-11 1985-12 1986-1
68.6 69 70.3 64.5 65.6 63 67.1 70.4 68.8 69.8
1986-2 1986-3 1986-4 1986-5 1986-6 1986-7 1986-8 1986-9 1986-10 1986-11
68.1 68.2 69.4 69.6 70.4 65 65.1 65 69 70.5
1986-12 1987-1 1987-2 1987-3 1987-4 1987-5 1987-6 1987-7 1987-8 1987-9
69.2 69.9 68.8 70 70.7 70.8 71.7 66.3 66 66.5
1987-10 1987-11 1987-12 1988-1 1988-2 1988-3 1988-4 1988-5 1988-6 1988-7
69.7 70.7 68.9 70 69 70.4 70.8 70.9 71 71.5
1988-8 1988-9 1988-10 1988-11 1988-12 1989-1 1989-2 1989-3 1989-4 1989-5
72.3 70.6 71.5 71.8 69.7 72.7 73.4 75.7 72.6 70.7
1989-6 1989-7 1989-8 1989-9 1989-10 1989-11 1989-12 1990-1 1990-2 1990-3
62.5 63.4 62.9 62.1 62.9 62 61.4 56.5209 55.55747 56.92232
1990-4 1990-5 1990-6 1990-7 1990-8 1990-9 1990-10 1990-11 1990-12 1991-1
58.04632 56.76175 53.2292 50.25864 47.36837 46.80637 46.72608 47.68951 47.85008 54.96514
1991-2 1991-3 1991-4 1991-5 1991-6 1991-7 1991-8 1991-9 1991-10 1991-11
54.80582 55.68208 56.08038 55.28378 54.48718 51.38046 50.26522 48.99067 46.99918 48.11441
1991-12 1992-1 1992-2 1992-3 1992-4 1992-5 1992-6 1992-7 1992-8 1992-9
48.99067 59.47221 58.3206 57.90931 56.42868 52.97386 49.43679 48.94324 48.77873 49.19001
1992-10 1992-11 1992-12 1993-1 1993-2 1993-3 1993-4 1993-5 1993-6 1993-7
49.84807 49.76582 50.99968 54.95188 54.87072 56.17895 56.22154 55.10296 52.99356 52.26552
1993-8 1993-9 1993-10 1993-11 1993-12 1994-1 1994-2 1994-3 1994-4 1994-5
49.98175 51.1823 52.37642 53.54643 55.37698 57.63953 57.21832 58.27054 57.41279 57.36034
1994-6 1994-7 1994-8 1994-9 1994-10 1994-11 1994-12 1995-1 1995-2 1995-3
55.14778 53.67758 53.20876 53.43308 54.40622 55.16472 56.91734 61.39996 60.12098 61.14286
1995-4 1995-5 1995-6 1995-7 1995-8 1995-9 1995-10 1995-11 1995-12 1996-1
61.03257 59.50947 57.60519 56.68712 55.27107 55.10887 54.50952 55.61819 57.45921 58.84335
1996-2 1996-3 1996-4 1996-5 1996-6 1996-7 1996-8 1996-9 1996-10 1996-11
61.64721 62.14841 63.24529 61.93704 59.78171 59.32454 58.35496 59.1564 58.79371 60.59756
1996-12 1997-1 1997-2 1997-3 1997-4 1997-5 1997-6 1997-7 1997-8 1997-9
60.6448 64.363 65.87634 66.25187 66.42921 65.18467 62.65145 61.45827 60.46248 61.47913
1997-10 1997-11 1997-12 1998-1 1998-2 1998-3 1998-4 1998-5 1998-6 1998-7
61.82016 62.32487 62.41956 67.4354 67.31273 69.42212 69.50871 70.13727 68.79596 66.13578
1998-8 1998-9 1998-10 1998-11 1998-12 1999-1 1999-2 1999-3 1999-4 1999-5
63.93178 63.85401 63.46838 64.45853 65.74533 68.96916 67.20763 71.39815 72.72761 72.1544
1999-6 1999-7 1999-8 1999-9 1999-10 1999-11 1999-12 2000-1 2000-2 2000-3
70.66391 68.89322 67.34784 65.98823 66.6261 67.57726 68.26715 88.44459 87.5482 89.19515
2000-4 2000-5 2000-6 2000-7 2000-8 2000-9 2000-10 2000-11 2000-12 2001-1
89.93507 88.34176 88.9668 89.9608 88.78199 88.53716 88.59366 87.07826 89.79819 94.32913
2001-2 2001-3 2001-4 2001-5 2001-6 2001-7 2001-8 2001-9 2001-10 2001-11
92.37484 97.77002 98.43863 96.34883 93.29966 92.15448 88.91325 88.85509 89.32753 88.82858
2001-12 2002-1 2002-2 2002-3 2002-4 2002-5 2002-6 2002-7 2002-8 2002-9
91.97218 96.82379 95.43776 102.7205 102.1537 102.4915 98.8313 101.2735 99.81102 97.4894
 Producción de leche fresca

2002-10 2002-11 2002-12 2003-1 2003-2 2003-3 2003-4 2003-5 2003-6 2003-7
97.96665 98.5804 98.39202 99.87252 99.77865 107.6187 107.0575 106.5651 102.5827 101.5386
2003-8 2003-9 2003-10 2003-11 2003-12 2004-1 2004-2 2004-3 2004-4 2004-5
99.9366 98.70558 100.5881 98.96296 101.0669 103.8295 102.2401 108.8019 109.4275 110.2784
2004-6 2004-7 2004-8 2004-9 2004-10 2004-11 2004-12 2005-1 2005-2 2005-3
107.8701 106.953 105.4372 102.2239 103.7213 103.2428 105.4549 110.609 108.3829 116.5164
2005-4 2005-5 2005-6 2005-7 2005-8 2005-9 2005-10 2005-11 2005-12 2006-1
115.5269 115.845 112.3158 111.1551 109.5538 106.511 107.8005 106.1667 108.952 120.913
2006-2 2006-3 2006-4 2006-5 2006-6 2006-7 2006-8 2006-9 2006-10 2006-11
118.4647 133.1826 132.4656 131.821 127.6408 125.4056 121.453 115.8923 117.324 115.6413
2006-12 2007-1 2007-2 2007-3 2007-4 2007-5 2007-6 2007-7 2007-8 2007-9
122.7196 128.8419 128.0419 140.3666 139.0676 139.4875 134.7265 132.713 129.6367 125.2225
2007-10 2007-11 2007-12 2008-1 2008-2 2008-3 2008-4 2008-5 2008-6 2008-7
126.1821 126.0345 129.5137 127.2677 127.1852 138.2105 139.5264 139.2134 136.1732 133.2541
2008-8 2008-9 2008-10 2008-11 2008-12 2009-1 2009-2 2009-3 2009-4 2009-5
129.1303 122.9961 123.8055 121.9499 126.816 134.2406 135.1749 148.4664 149.0411 148.6898
2009-6 2009-7 2009-8 2009-9 2009-10 2009-11 2009-12 2010-1 2010-2 2010-3
143.4996 140.39 135.3826 128.914 129.2644 127.7527 131.2961 138.5502 136.8942 150.2172
2010-4 2010-5 2010-6 2010-7 2010-8 2010-9 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-1
151.997 154.5312 146.8738 141.5752 136.2267 131.1246 131.2746 127.2436 131.8636 142.6462
2011-2 2011-3 2011-4 2011-5 2011-6 2011-7 2011-8 2011-9 2011-10 2011-11
143.3435 157.267 159.694 160.835 151.0489 147.3998 141.521 135.4606 135.4492 133.1554
2011-12 2012-1 2012-2 2012-3 2012-4 2012-5 2012-6 2012-7 2012-8 2012-9
137.7081 146.3275 148.5578 161.5804 165.3946 163.9092 156.182 151.7049 144.956 138.3764
2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-1 2013-2 2013-3 2013-4 2013-5 2013-6 2013-7
138.5405 136.4684 141.4219 147.9969 147.4489 162.5251 166.1909 163.4913 156.7214 153.0938
2013-8 2013-9 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12 2014-1 2014-2 2014-3 2014-4 2014-5
146.9727 140.3894 139.9656 138.8786 144.1312 152.353 152.18 166.6951 170.5105 167.0609
2014-6 2014-7 2014-8 2014-9 2014-10 2014-11 2014-12 2015-1 2015-2 2015-3
159.2647 155.3579 148.4381 141.9318 139.9747 140.5854 145.8739 155.3618 155.6359 169.6171
2015-4 2015-5 2015-6 2015-7 2015-8 2015-9 2015-10 2015-11 2015-12 2016-1
170.1756 169.8982 163.2925 159.6439 156.1548 147.9977 152.245 150.645 152.5092 155.8332
2016-2 2016-3 2016-4 2016-5 2016-6 2016-7 2016-8 2016-9 2016-10 2016-11
160.7682 173.3806 174.7577 174.5023 167.935 166.5396 164.8326 155.0484 154.5253 151.2767
2016-12 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2017-4 2017-5 2017-6 2017-7 2017-8 2017-9
154.8321 163.5749 160.6233 176.1411 178.0671 183.2766 175.544 169.9709 165.3337 159.703
2017-10 2017-11 2017-12 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2018-4 2018-5 2018-6 2018-7
160.1879 159.0176 162.2337 171.3513 167.5092 180.5739 183.2065 189.4881 177.5145 174.9223
2018-8 2018-9 2018-10 2018-11 2018-12 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2019-5
169.2325 161.6814 164.4845 161.8733 165.305 175.7463 171.1374 183.859 190.0476 194.6406
2019-6 2019-7 2019-8 2019-9 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3
184.6813 179.0326 171.442 166.2392 168.2494 166.4897 169.8007 177.6359 174.7382 187.8709
2020-4 2020-5 2020-6 2020-7 2020-8 2020-9 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-1
189.1559 191.4365 183.5304 178.7321 176.2017 167.8121 169.1466 166.9311 172.6898 181.3964
2021-2 2021-3 2021-4 2021-5 2021-6 2021-7 2021-8 2021-9 2021-10 2021-11
176.8592 190.5479 192.5914 195.4435 189.1629 184.6818 180.103 172.1118 173.4051 173.2196
2021-12 2022-1 2022-2 2022-3 2022-4 2022-5 2022-6 2022-7 2022-8 2022-9
175.4118 187.3512 180.9459 195.4299 196.4885 199.0037 194.3347 191.9821 187.5713 179.2184
2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-1 2023-2 2023-3 2023-4 2023-5 2023-6 2023-7
180.2545 175.3115 179.044 185.0028 177.8602 189.7176 191.6058 194.2325 188.5888 186.9305
2023-8 2023-9 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12
182.4448 172.4967 175.7084 171.8604 175.6246
Unidad MTM Leche
1983-1 65.3
1983-2 67.5 MTM Leche
1983-3 68.2 250
1983-4 65.6
1983-5 66
200
1983-6 67.3
1983-7 60.7
1983-8 61.6 150

1983-9 63.2
1983-10 56.7 100
1983-11 54.6
1983-12 55.5 50
1984-1 63.4
1984-2 65.5 0
1984-3 66.1 1983-1 1985-1 1987-1 1989-1 1991-1 1993-1 1995-1 1997-1 1999-1 2001-1 2003-1 2005-1 2007
1984-4 65.4
1984-5 65.7
1984-6 66.9
1984-7 65.3
1984-8 66.3
1984-9 67.8
1984-10 64
1984-11 61.5
1984-12 62.5
1985-1 65.5
1985-2 67.7
1985-3 68.3
1985-4 68.6
1985-5 69
1985-6 70.3
1985-7 64.5
1985-8 65.6
1985-9 63
1985-10 67.1
1985-11 70.4
1985-12 68.8
1986-1 69.8
1986-2 68.1
1986-3 68.2
1986-4 69.4
1986-5 69.6
1986-6 70.4
1986-7 65
1986-8 65.1
1986-9 65
1986-10 69
1986-11 70.5
1986-12 69.2
1987-1 69.9
1987-2 68.8
1987-3 70
1987-4 70.7
1987-5 70.8
1987-6 71.7
1987-7 66.3
1987-8 66
1987-9 66.5
1987-10 69.7
1987-11 70.7
1987-12 68.9
1988-1 70
1988-2 69
1988-3 70.4
1988-4 70.8
1988-5 70.9
1988-6 71
1988-7 71.5
1988-8 72.3
1988-9 70.6
1988-10 71.5
1988-11 71.8
1988-12 69.7
1989-1 72.7
1989-2 73.4
1989-3 75.7
1989-4 72.6
1989-5 70.7
1989-6 62.5
1989-7 63.4
1989-8 62.9
1989-9 62.1
1989-10 62.9
1989-11 62
1989-12 61.4
1990-1 56.520896898
1990-2 55.557472519
1990-3 56.922323722
1990-4 58.046318831
1990-5 56.761752993
1990-6 53.229196937
1990-7 50.258638435
1990-8 47.368365298
1990-9 46.806367744
1990-10 46.726082379
1990-11 47.689506758
1990-12 47.850077487
1991-1 54.965141876
1991-2 54.805822624
1991-3 55.682078509
1991-4 56.080376638
1991-5 55.283780379
1991-6 54.48718412
1991-7 51.38045871
1991-8 50.265223947
1991-9 48.990669933
1991-10 46.999179285
1991-11 48.114414048
1991-12 48.990669933
1992-1 59.472207314
1992-2 58.32060164
1992-3 57.909313899
1992-4 56.428678032
1992-5 52.97386101
1992-6 49.436786439
1992-7 48.94324115
1992-8 48.778726054
1992-9 49.190013795
1992-10 49.84807418
1992-11 49.765816632
1992-12 50.999679854
1993-1 54.951883427
1993-2 54.87072204
1993-3 56.178947155
1993-4 56.221536793
1993-5 55.102956106
1993-6 52.993563645
1993-7 52.265521905
1993-8 49.981753001
1993-9 51.182298653
1993-10 52.37641568
1993-11 53.546425364
1993-12 55.376976231
1994-1 57.639529943
1994-2 57.218320476
1994-3 58.270537228
1994-4 57.412786916
1994-5 57.360337461
1994-6 55.147777389
1994-7 53.677578828
1994-8 53.208761395
1994-9 53.433083678
1994-10 54.406222791
1994-11 55.164722597
1994-12 56.917341298
1995-1 61.399957499
1995-2 60.120977577
1995-3 61.142863882
1995-4 61.032565042
1995-5 59.509467836
1995-6 57.605190818
1995-7 56.687115186
1995-8 55.271072736
1995-9 55.10886856
1995-10 54.509524132
1995-11 55.618189671
1995-12 57.45920706
1996-1 58.843352461
1996-2 61.647208783
1996-3 62.148412111
1996-4 63.245294795
1996-5 61.937042017
1996-6 59.781707575
1996-7 59.324539683
1996-8 58.354959441
1996-9 59.156404381
1996-10 58.793712515
1996-11 60.597564112
1996-12 60.644802125
1997-1 64.362996709
1997-2 65.876343986
1997-3 66.251872367
1997-4 66.429205213
1997-5 65.184665644
1997-6 62.651453898
1997-7 61.458268637
1997-8 60.4624765
1997-9 61.479131325
1997-10 61.82015603
1997-11 62.324872592
1997-12 62.419557099
1998-1 67.435400529
1998-2 67.312733859
1998-3 69.422119537
1998-4 69.508707775
1998-5 70.137274241
1998-6 68.7959583
1998-7 66.135775221
1998-8 63.931783876
1998-9 63.85401481
1998-10 63.468376456
1998-11 64.458528988
1998-12 65.745326409
1999-1 68.969158916
1999-2 67.207634964
1999-3 71.398146585
1999-4 72.727608504
1999-5 72.154400371
1999-6 70.663910314
1999-7 68.893222625
1999-8 67.347840145
1999-9 65.988227893
1999-10 66.626097648
1999-11 67.577260854
1999-12 68.267151182
2000-1 88.44459
2000-2 87.5482
2000-3 89.19515
2000-4 89.93507
2000-5 88.34176
2000-6 88.9668
2000-7 89.9608
2000-8 88.78199
2000-9 88.53716
2000-10 88.59366
2000-11 87.07826
2000-12 89.79819
2001-1 94.32913
2001-2 92.37484
2001-3 97.770018
2001-4 98.438632
2001-5 96.348827
2001-6 93.299659
2001-7 92.154477
2001-8 88.913247
2001-9 88.85509
2001-10 89.327533
2001-11 88.828578
2001-12 91.972178
2002-1 96.823792
2002-2 95.437756
2002-3 102.72046508
2002-4 102.15372928
2002-5 102.49152589
2002-6 98.831304557
2002-7 101.27352493
2002-8 99.811016317
2002-9 97.489401
2002-10 97.966647094
2002-11 98.580397491
2002-12 98.392021599
2003-1 99.872515209
2003-2 99.778652882
2003-3 107.61868015
2003-4 107.05754772
2003-5 106.56505084
2003-6 102.58274431
2003-7 101.5385999
2003-8 99.936596185
2003-9 98.705577391
2003-10 100.58813929
2003-11 98.962961195
2003-12 101.06686578
2004-1 103.82947465
2004-2 102.24008949
2004-3 108.80191713
2004-4 109.42748758
2004-5 110.27842292
2004-6 107.87009176
2004-7 106.95299974
2004-8 105.43720879
2004-9 102.22390708
2004-10 103.72129019
2004-11 103.24284539
2004-12 105.45489622
2005-1 110.60895817
2005-2 108.38286581
2005-3 116.51635822
2005-4 115.52693754
2005-5 115.84495796
2005-6 112.3158452
2005-7 111.15508325
2005-8 109.55378154
2005-9 106.51099625
2005-10 107.80045846
2005-11 106.16667636
2005-12 108.95204396
2006-1 120.91301787
2006-2 118.4647436
2006-3 133.18257276
2006-4 132.46564704
2006-5 131.82099193
2006-6 127.64080624
2006-7 125.40556291
2006-8 121.45298392
2006-9 115.89227242
2006-10 117.32396186
2006-11 115.64128091
2006-12 122.7196204
2007-1 128.84191163
2007-2 128.04188286
2007-3 140.36664929
2007-4 139.06756146
2007-5 139.48749664
2007-6 134.72650133
2007-7 132.71295033
2007-8 129.63667436
2007-9 125.22252971
2007-10 126.18211952
2007-11 126.03449214
2007-12 129.51367607
2008-1 127.26767251
2008-2 127.18519804
2008-3 138.21054193
2008-4 139.52637062
2008-5 139.21336427
2008-6 136.17317733
2008-7 133.25409568
2008-8 129.1302657
2008-9 122.996077
2008-10 123.80552478
2008-11 121.94993428
2008-12 126.81598497
2009-1 134.24058675
2009-2 135.17485321
2009-3 148.46641421
2009-4 149.04113109
2009-5 148.68983918
2009-6 143.49961537
2009-7 140.39001729
2009-8 135.38261191
2009-9 128.91404262
2009-10 129.26439097
2009-11 127.75272901
2009-12 131.29609022
2010-1 138.55024114
2010-2 136.89419295
2010-3 150.2172058
2010-4 151.99702117
2010-5 154.53124514
2010-6 146.87377486
2010-7 141.57516054
2010-8 136.22674455
2010-9 131.12463727
2010-10 131.27459608
2010-11 127.24362667
2010-12 131.86364441
2011-1 142.64617302
2011-2 143.34345692
2011-3 157.26703472
2011-4 159.69395371
2011-5 160.83498789
2011-6 151.04889148
2011-7 147.39980937
2011-8 141.52096461
2011-9 135.46064864
2011-10 135.44924694
2011-11 133.15542316
2011-12 137.70806575
2012-1 146.32753129
2012-2 148.55784767
2012-3 161.58036262
2012-4 165.39463289
2012-5 163.90924733
2012-6 156.18195465
2012-7 151.70492223
2012-8 144.95598305
2012-9 138.37635021
2012-10 138.54051743
2012-11 136.46835941
2012-12 141.42194254
2013-1 147.99693541
2013-2 147.44894893
2013-3 162.52510565
2013-4 166.19090005
2013-5 163.49126703
2013-6 156.72141309
2013-7 153.0938198
2013-8 146.97266528
2013-9 140.38941718
2013-10 139.96559
2013-11 138.87862893
2013-12 144.13122244
2014-1 152.35297127
2014-2 152.17997383
2014-3 166.69511423
2014-4 170.51053643
2014-5 167.06088747
2014-6 159.26471529
2014-7 155.35786992
2014-8 148.43808203
2014-9 141.93181099
2014-10 139.97473073
2014-11 140.58536881
2014-12 145.87393529
2015-1 155.36179143
2015-2 155.63593466
2015-3 169.61708384
2015-4 170.17556729
2015-5 169.89819392
2015-6 163.29252838
2015-7 159.64393747
2015-8 156.15484919
2015-9 147.99768268
2015-10 152.24497396
2015-11 150.64500642
2015-12 152.50917636
2016-1 155.83320179
2016-2 160.76822166
2016-3 173.38063556
2016-4 174.75769095
2016-5 174.50231158
2016-6 167.93500309
2016-7 166.53959551
2016-8 164.83263571
2016-9 155.04836895
2016-10 154.52527072
2016-11 151.27674811
2016-12 154.83205756
2017-1 163.5748749
2017-2 160.62327401
2017-3 176.14108763
2017-4 178.06708873
2017-5 183.27660575
2017-6 175.54402176
2017-7 169.97088543
2017-8 165.33374657
2017-9 159.70296998
2017-10 160.18786793
2017-11 159.0176073
2017-12 162.2336883
2018-1 171.35129292
2018-2 167.50921373
2018-3 180.57391781
2018-4 183.20648329
2018-5 189.48809878
2018-6 177.51453376
2018-7 174.92229208
2018-8 169.23247289
2018-9 161.68136046
2018-10 164.48452831
2018-11 161.87327018
2018-12 165.3050423
2019-1 175.74628289
2019-2 171.13740142
2019-3 183.85899038
2019-4 190.04759381
2019-5 194.64061139
2019-6 184.68132211
2019-7 179.03261232
2019-8 171.44196965
2019-9 166.23924608
2019-10 168.24943847
2019-11 166.48972659
2019-12 169.80065711
2020-1 177.63586347
2020-2 174.73817647
2020-3 187.87090971
2020-4 189.15594662
2020-5 191.43653023
2020-6 183.53037453
2020-7 178.73212287
2020-8 176.20171194
2020-9 167.81212496
2020-10 169.14659069
2020-11 166.93114939
2020-12 172.68981993
2021-1 181.39641995
2021-2 176.8591967
2021-3 190.54789279
2021-4 192.59136846
2021-5 195.44346476
2021-6 189.16290115
2021-7 184.68177418
2021-8 180.10304806
2021-9 172.11177702
2021-10 173.40506409
2021-11 173.2196446
2021-12 175.41178589
2022-1 187.35119808
2022-2 180.94590782
2022-3 195.42992217
2022-4 196.48846377
2022-5 199.00371681
2022-6 194.3346946
2022-7 191.98211753
2022-8 187.57125599
2022-9 179.21835522
2022-10 180.25452928
2022-11 175.31147572
2022-12 179.04402504
2023-1 185.00280553
2023-2 177.86020247
2023-3 189.71759043
2023-4 191.60579384
2023-5 194.23249558
2023-6 188.58879772
2023-7 186.9305346
2023-8 182.44478536
2023-9 172.49674624
2023-10 175.70842575
2023-11 171.86039609
2023-12 175.62464303
 MTM Leche

7-1 1999-1 2001-1 2003-1 2005-1 2007-1 2009-1 2011-1 2013-1 2015-1 2017-1 2019-1 2021-1 2023-1
Unidad MTM Leche
2006-1 120.91301787
2006-2 118.4647436 MTM Leche
2006-3 133.18257276 220
2006-4 132.46564704
2006-5 131.82099193
200
2006-6 127.64080624
2006-7 125.40556291
2006-8 121.45298392 180
2006-9 115.89227242
2006-10 117.32396186 160
2006-11 115.64128091
2006-12 122.7196204 140
2007-1 128.84191163
2007-2 128.04188286
120
2007-3 140.36664929
2007-4 139.06756146
2007-5 139.48749664 100
2006-1 2006-11 2007-9 2008-7 2009-5 2010-3 2011-1 2011-11 2012-9 2013-7 2014-5 2015-3 20
2007-6 134.72650133
2007-7 132.71295033
2007-8 129.63667436
2007-9 125.22252971 Pasos:
2007-10 126.18211952 1. Recopilación de datos, minimo 3 años, fuente completa y data completa.
2007-11 126.03449214 2. Reduccion de datos.
2007-12 129.51367607 3. Construccion del modelo
2008-1 127.26767251 4. Extrapolacion del modelo.
2008-2 127.18519804
2008-3 138.21054193
2008-4 139.52637062
2008-5 139.21336427
2008-6 136.17317733
2008-7 133.25409568
2008-8 129.1302657
2008-9 122.996077
2008-10 123.80552478
2008-11 121.94993428
2008-12 126.81598497
2009-1 134.24058675
2009-2 135.17485321
2009-3 148.46641421
2009-4 149.04113109
2009-5 148.68983918
2009-6 143.49961537
2009-7 140.39001729
2009-8 135.38261191
2009-9 128.91404262
2009-10 129.26439097
2009-11 127.75272901
2009-12 131.29609022
2010-1 138.55024114
2010-2 136.89419295
2010-3 150.2172058
2010-4 151.99702117
2010-5 154.53124514
2010-6 146.87377486
2010-7 141.57516054
2010-8 136.22674455
2010-9 131.12463727
2010-10 131.27459608
2010-11 127.24362667
2010-12 131.86364441
2011-1 142.64617302
2011-2 143.34345692
2011-3 157.26703472
2011-4 159.69395371
2011-5 160.83498789
2011-6 151.04889148
2011-7 147.39980937
2011-8 141.52096461
2011-9 135.46064864
2011-10 135.44924694
2011-11 133.15542316
2011-12 137.70806575
2012-1 146.32753129
2012-2 148.55784767
2012-3 161.58036262
2012-4 165.39463289
2012-5 163.90924733
2012-6 156.18195465
2012-7 151.70492223
2012-8 144.95598305
2012-9 138.37635021
2012-10 138.54051743
2012-11 136.46835941
2012-12 141.42194254
2013-1 147.99693541
2013-2 147.44894893
2013-3 162.52510565
2013-4 166.19090005
2013-5 163.49126703
2013-6 156.72141309
2013-7 153.0938198
2013-8 146.97266528
2013-9 140.38941718
2013-10 139.96559
2013-11 138.87862893
2013-12 144.13122244
2014-1 152.35297127
2014-2 152.17997383
2014-3 166.69511423
2014-4 170.51053643
2014-5 167.06088747
2014-6 159.26471529
2014-7 155.35786992
2014-8 148.43808203
2014-9 141.93181099
2014-10 139.97473073
2014-11 140.58536881
2014-12 145.87393529
2015-1 155.36179143
2015-2 155.63593466
2015-3 169.61708384
2015-4 170.17556729
2015-5 169.89819392
2015-6 163.29252838
2015-7 159.64393747
2015-8 156.15484919
2015-9 147.99768268
2015-10 152.24497396
2015-11 150.64500642
2015-12 152.50917636
2016-1 155.83320179
2016-2 160.76822166
2016-3 173.38063556
2016-4 174.75769095
2016-5 174.50231158
2016-6 167.93500309
2016-7 166.53959551
2016-8 164.83263571
2016-9 155.04836895
2016-10 154.52527072
2016-11 151.27674811
2016-12 154.83205756
2017-1 163.5748749
2017-2 160.62327401
2017-3 176.14108763
2017-4 178.06708873
2017-5 183.27660575
2017-6 175.54402176
2017-7 169.97088543
2017-8 165.33374657
2017-9 159.70296998
2017-10 160.18786793
2017-11 159.0176073
2017-12 162.2336883
2018-1 171.35129292
2018-2 167.50921373
2018-3 180.57391781
2018-4 183.20648329
2018-5 189.48809878
2018-6 177.51453376
2018-7 174.92229208
2018-8 169.23247289
2018-9 161.68136046
2018-10 164.48452831
2018-11 161.87327018
2018-12 165.3050423
2019-1 175.74628289
2019-2 171.13740142
2019-3 183.85899038
2019-4 190.04759381
2019-5 194.64061139
2019-6 184.68132211
2019-7 179.03261232
2019-8 171.44196965
2019-9 166.23924608
2019-10 168.24943847
2019-11 166.48972659
2019-12 169.80065711
2020-1 177.63586347
2020-2 174.73817647
2020-3 187.87090971
2020-4 189.15594662
2020-5 191.43653023
2020-6 183.53037453
2020-7 178.73212287
2020-8 176.20171194
2020-9 167.81212496
2020-10 169.14659069
2020-11 166.93114939
2020-12 172.68981993
2021-1 181.39641995
2021-2 176.8591967
2021-3 190.54789279
2021-4 192.59136846
2021-5 195.44346476
2021-6 189.16290115
2021-7 184.68177418
2021-8 180.10304806
2021-9 172.11177702
2021-10 173.40506409
2021-11 173.2196446
2021-12 175.41178589
2022-1 187.35119808
2022-2 180.94590782
2022-3 195.42992217
2022-4 196.48846377
2022-5 199.00371681
2022-6 194.3346946
2022-7 191.98211753
2022-8 187.57125599
2022-9 179.21835522
2022-10 180.25452928
2022-11 175.31147572
2022-12 179.04402504
2023-1 185.00280553
2023-2 177.86020247
2023-3 189.71759043
2023-4 191.60579384
2023-5 194.23249558
2023-6 188.58879772
2023-7 186.9305346
2023-8 182.44478536
2023-9 172.49674624
2023-10 175.70842575
2023-11 171.86039609
2023-12 175.62464303
 MTM Leche

10-3 2011-1 2011-11 2012-9 2013-7 2014-5 2015-3 2016-1 2016-11 2017-9 2018-7 2019-5 2020-3 2021-1 2021-11 2022-9 2023-7

te completa y data completa. *El pronostico se usa para casos observables, tendencia o ciclicos (estacionalidad).
*Prueba si la data es aleatoria.
*Los pronosticos no se usan en precios, valor de acciones.
Estacionalidad y tendencia
Runs Test Results for MTM Leche

# of nonmissing obs 216

# below mean 107
# on or above mean 109
# of runs 14

E(R) 108.991
Stdev(R) 7.331
z-value -12.958
p-value (2-tailed) 0.000

Si p es mayor a 0.05 es aleatoria.

P=0, no es aleatoria.

Concusion de data:
La data no es aleatoria y podemos usala para pronostico.
Forecasting results for MTM Leche Date Observation Forecast Error
1 120.913
Moving averages 2 118.465
3 133.183
Span 3 4 132.466 124.187 8.279
5 131.821 128.038 3.783
Estimation period 6 127.641 132.490 -4.849
7 125.406 130.642 -5.237
MAE 7.7133 MTM Leche 8 121.453 128.289 -6.836
RMSE 8.6857 MTM Leche 9 115.892 124.833 -8.941
MAPE 4.90% 10 117.324 120.917 -3.593
11 115.641 118.223 -2.582
12 122.720 116.286 6.434
13 128.842 118.562 10.280
14 128.042 122.401 5.641
15 140.367 126.534 13.832
16 139.068 132.417 6.651
17 139.487 135.825 3.662
18 134.727 139.641 -4.914
19 132.713 137.761 -5.048
20 129.637 135.642 -6.006
21 125.223 132.359 -7.136
22 126.182 129.191 -3.009
23 126.034 127.014 -0.979
24 129.514 125.813 3.701
25 127.268 127.243 0.024
26 127.185 127.605 -0.420
27 138.211 127.989 10.222
28 139.526 130.888 8.639
29 139.213 134.974 4.239
30 136.173 138.983 -2.810
31 133.254 138.304 -5.050
32 129.130 136.214 -7.083
33 122.996 132.853 -9.856
34 123.806 128.460 -4.655
Forecast
35 errors121.950
for MTM Leche 125.311 -3.361
36 126.816 122.917 3.899
20.000
37 134.241 124.190 10.050
15.000 38 135.175 127.669 7.506
39 148.466 132.077 16.389
10.000 40 149.041 139.294 9.747
41 148.690 144.227 4.462
5.000 42 143.500 148.732 -5.233
43 140.390 147.077 -6.687
0.000 44 135.383 144.193 -8.811
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 45
85 92 99 106
128.914113 120 127 134
139.757141 148 155 162 169 176 183 1
-10.843
-5.000 46 129.264 134.896 -5.631
47 127.753 131.187 -3.434
-10.000

-15.000
 0.000
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 1
-5.000

-10.000 48 131.296 128.644 2.652

49 138.550 129.438 9.113
-15.000
50 136.894 132.533 4.361
51 150.217 135.580 14.637
-20.000
52 151.997 141.887 10.110
53 Time
154.531 146.369 8.162
54 146.874 152.248 -5.375
55 141.575 151.134 -9.559
56 136.227 147.660 -11.433
57 131.125 141.559 -10.434
58 131.275 136.309 -5.034
59 127.244 132.875 -5.632
60 131.864 129.881 1.983
61 142.646 130.127 12.519
62 143.343 133.918 9.426
63 157.267 139.284 17.983
64 159.694 147.752 11.942
65 160.835 153.435 7.400
66 151.049 159.265 -8.216
67 147.400 157.193 -9.793
68 141.521 153.095 -11.574
69 135.461 146.657 -11.196
70 135.449 141.460 -6.011
71 133.155 137.477 -4.322
72 137.708 134.688 3.020
73 146.328 135.438 10.890
74 148.558 139.064 9.494
75 161.580 144.198 17.383
76 165.395 152.155 13.239
77 163.909 158.511 5.398
78 156.182 163.628 -7.446
79 151.705 161.829 -10.124
80 144.956 157.265 -12.309
81 138.376 150.948 -12.571
82 138.541 145.012 -6.472
83 136.468 140.624 -4.156
84 141.422 137.795 3.627
85 147.997 138.810 9.187
86 147.449 141.962 5.487
87 162.525 145.623 16.902
88 166.191 152.657 13.534
89 163.491 158.722 4.770
90 156.721 164.069 -7.348
91 153.094 162.135 -9.041
92 146.973 157.769 -10.796
93 140.389 152.263 -11.873
94 139.966 146.819 -6.853
95 138.879 142.443 -3.564
 96 144.131 139.745 4.387
97 152.353 140.992 11.361
98 152.180 145.121 7.059
99 166.695 149.555 17.140
100 170.511 157.076 13.435
101 167.061 163.129 3.932
102 159.265 168.089 -8.824
103 155.358 165.612 -10.254
104 148.438 160.561 -12.123
105 141.932 154.354 -12.422
106 139.975 148.576 -8.601
107 140.585 143.448 -2.863
108 145.874 140.831 5.043
109 155.362 142.145 13.217
110 155.636 147.274 8.362
111 169.617 152.291 17.327
112 170.176 160.205 9.971
113 169.898 165.143 4.755
114 163.293 169.897 -6.604
115 159.644 167.789 -8.145
116 156.155 164.278 -8.123
117 147.998 159.697 -11.699
118 152.245 154.599 -2.354
119 150.645 152.133 -1.487
120 152.509 150.296 2.213
121 155.833 151.800 4.033
122 160.768 152.996 7.772
123 173.381 156.370 17.010
124 174.758 163.327 11.430
125 174.502 169.636 4.867
126 167.935 174.214 -6.279
127 166.540 172.398 -5.859
128 164.833 169.659 -4.826
129 155.048 166.436 -11.387
130 154.525 162.140 -7.615
131 151.277 158.135 -6.859
132 154.832 153.617 1.215
133 163.575 153.545 10.030
134 160.623 156.561 4.062
135 176.141 159.677 16.464
136 178.067 166.780 11.287
137 183.277 171.610 11.666
138 175.544 179.162 -3.618
139 169.971 178.963 -8.992
140 165.334 176.264 -10.930
141 159.703 170.283 -10.580
142 160.188 165.003 -4.815
143 159.018 161.742 -2.724
144 162.234 159.636 2.598
145 171.351 160.480 10.872
146 167.509 164.201 3.308
147 180.574 167.031 13.543
148 183.206 173.145 10.062
149 189.488 177.097 12.392
150 177.515 184.423 -6.908
151 174.922 183.403 -8.481
152 169.232 180.642 -11.409
153 161.681 173.890 -12.208
154 164.485 168.612 -4.128
155 161.873 165.133 -3.260
156 165.305 162.680 2.625
157 175.746 163.888 11.859
158 171.137 167.642 3.496
159 183.859 170.730 13.129
160 190.048 176.914 13.133
161 194.641 181.681 12.959
162 184.681 189.516 -4.834
163 179.033 189.790 -10.757
164 171.442 186.118 -14.676
165 166.239 178.385 -12.146
166 168.249 172.238 -3.989
167 166.490 168.644 -2.154
168 169.801 166.993 2.808
169 177.636 168.180 9.456
170 174.738 171.309 3.429
171 187.871 174.058 13.813
172 189.156 180.082 9.074
173 191.437 183.922 7.515
174 183.530 189.488 -5.957
175 178.732 188.041 -9.309
176 176.202 184.566 -8.365
177 167.812 179.488 -11.676
178 169.147 174.249 -5.102
179 166.931 171.053 -4.122
180 172.690 167.963 4.727
181 181.396 169.589 11.807
182 176.859 173.672 3.187
183 190.548 176.982 13.566
184 192.591 182.935 9.657
185 195.443 186.666 8.777
186 189.163 192.861 -3.698
187 184.682 192.399 -7.717
188 180.103 189.763 -9.660
189 172.112 184.649 -12.537
190 173.405 178.966 -5.560
191 173.220 175.207 -1.987
192 175.412 172.912 2.500
193 187.351 174.012 13.339
194 180.946 178.661 2.285
195 195.430 181.236 14.194
196 196.488 187.909 8.579
197 199.004 190.955 8.049
198 194.335 196.974 -2.639
199 191.982 196.609 -4.627
200 187.571 195.107 -7.536
201 179.218 191.296 -12.078
202 180.255 186.257 -6.003
203 175.311 182.348 -7.037
204 179.044 178.261 0.783
205 185.003 178.203 6.799
206 177.860 179.786 -1.926
207 189.718 180.636 9.082
208 191.606 184.194 7.412
209 194.232 186.395 7.838
210 188.589 191.852 -3.263
211 186.931 191.476 -4.545
212 182.445 189.917 -7.472
213 172.497 185.988 -13.491
214 175.708 180.624 -4.916
215 171.860 176.883 -5.023
216 175.625 173.355 2.269
217 174.398
218 173.961
219 174.661
220 174.340
221 174.321
222 174.441
223 174.367
224 174.376
225 174.395
226 174.379
227 174.383
228 174.386
229 174.383
230 174.384
231 174.384
232 174.384
233 174.384
234 174.384
235 174.384
236 174.384
237 174.384
238 174.384
239 174.384
240 174.384
 Time series of MTM Leche with forecasts superimposed
250.000

200.000

150.000
Observatio
Forecast
100.000

50.000

0.000
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231
Time

48 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211

48 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211
mposed

Observation
Forecast

211 221 231

Forecasting results for MTM Leche Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
1 120.913
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 118.465
3 133.183
Smoothing constant(s) 4 132.466
Level 1.000 5 131.821
Trend 0.002 6 127.641
7 125.406 Time series
Estimation period 8 121.453 250.000
9 115.892
MAE 4.8415 10 117.324
RMSE 6.1447 11 115.641 200.000
MAPE 3.01% 12 122.720 123.577 -0.673
13 128.842 128.842 -0.662
14 128.042 150.000
128.042 -0.662
15 140.367 140.367 -0.639
16 139.068 139.068 -0.640
17 139.487 100.000
139.487 -0.638
18 134.727 134.727 -0.646
19 132.713 132.713 -0.648
50.000
20 129.637 129.637 -0.652
21 125.223 125.223 -0.659
22 126.182 126.182
0.000
-0.656
23 126.034 126.034 1 10 19 -0.655
28 37 46 55 64 73 8
24 129.514 129.514 -0.648
25 127.268 127.268 -0.651
26 127.185 127.185 -0.650
27 138.211 138.211 -0.628
28 139.526 139.526 -0.625
29 139.213 139.213 -0.624
30 136.173 136.173 -0.629
31 133.254 133.254 -0.633
32 129.130 129.130 -0.639
33 122.996 122.996 -0.649
34 123.806 123.806 -0.647
35 121.950 121.950 -0.649
36 126.816 126.816 -0.639
Forecast
37 errors for MTM134.241
134.241 Leche -0.624
38 135.175 135.175 -0.621
20.000
39 148.466 148.466 -0.596
40 149.041 149.041 -0.594
15.000
41 148.690 148.690 -0.593
42 143.500 143.500 -0.602
10.000 43 140.390 140.390 -0.606
44 135.383 135.383 -0.614
5.000 45 128.914 128.914 -0.625
46 129.264 129.264 -0.623
0.000 47 127.753 127.753 -0.625
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190
-5.000
 5.000

0.000
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 48
78 85 92131.296
99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148-0.617
131.296 155 162 169 176 183 190
-5.000 49 138.550 138.550 -0.603
50 136.894 136.894 -0.605
-10.000 51 150.217 150.217 -0.579
52 151.997 151.997 -0.575
53 154.531 154.531 -0.569
-15.000
54 146.874 146.874 -0.582
55 Time
141.575 141.575 -0.591
56 136.227 136.227 -0.600
57 131.125 131.125 -0.608
58 131.275 131.275 -0.606
59 127.244 127.244 -0.613
60 131.864 131.864 -0.603
61 142.646 142.646 -0.582
62 143.343 143.343 -0.580
63 157.267 157.267 -0.554
64 159.694 159.694 -0.548
65 160.835 160.835 -0.545
66 151.049 151.049 -0.562
67 147.400 147.400 -0.568
68 141.521 141.521 -0.577
69 135.461 135.461 -0.587
70 135.449 135.449 -0.586
71 133.155 133.155 -0.589
72 137.708 137.708 -0.580
73 146.328 146.328 -0.563
74 148.558 148.558 -0.558
75 161.580 161.580 -0.533
76 165.395 165.395 -0.525
77 163.909 163.909 -0.527
78 156.182 156.182 -0.540
79 151.705 151.705 -0.547
80 144.956 144.956 -0.559
81 138.376 138.376 -0.570
82 138.541 138.541 -0.568
83 136.468 136.468 -0.571
84 141.422 141.422 -0.561
85 147.997 147.997 -0.548
86 147.449 147.449 -0.548
87 162.525 162.525 -0.520
88 166.191 166.191 -0.512
89 163.491 163.491 -0.516
90 156.721 156.721 -0.527
91 153.094 153.094 -0.533
92 146.973 146.973 -0.543
93 140.389 140.389 -0.554
94 139.966 139.966 -0.554
95 138.879 138.879 -0.555
 96 144.131 144.131 -0.544
97 152.353 152.353 -0.528
98 152.180 152.180 -0.528
99 166.695 166.695 -0.500
100 170.511 170.511 -0.492
101 167.061 167.061 -0.498
102 159.265 159.265 -0.511
103 155.358 155.358 -0.517
104 148.438 148.438 -0.529
105 141.932 141.932 -0.540
106 139.975 139.975 -0.542
107 140.585 140.585 -0.540
108 145.874 145.874 -0.530
109 155.362 155.362 -0.511
110 155.636 155.636 -0.510
111 169.617 169.617 -0.484
112 170.176 170.176 -0.482
113 169.898 169.898 -0.481
114 163.293 163.293 -0.492
115 159.644 159.644 -0.498
116 156.155 156.155 -0.504
117 147.998 147.998 -0.518
118 152.245 152.245 -0.509
119 150.645 150.645 -0.511
120 152.509 152.509 -0.507
121 155.833 155.833 -0.500
122 160.768 160.768 -0.490
123 173.381 173.381 -0.466
124 174.758 174.758 -0.462
125 174.502 174.502 -0.462
126 167.935 167.935 -0.473
127 166.540 166.540 -0.475
128 164.833 164.833 -0.477
129 155.048 155.048 -0.494
130 154.525 154.525 -0.494
131 151.277 151.277 -0.499
132 154.832 154.832 -0.492
133 163.575 163.575 -0.475
134 160.623 160.623 -0.479
135 176.141 176.141 -0.450
136 178.067 178.067 -0.446
137 183.277 183.277 -0.436
138 175.544 175.544 -0.449
139 169.971 169.971 -0.458
140 165.334 165.334 -0.466
141 159.703 159.703 -0.475
142 160.188 160.188 -0.474
143 159.018 159.018 -0.475
144 162.234 162.234 -0.468
145 171.351 171.351 -0.451
146 167.509 167.509 -0.457
147 180.574 180.574 -0.432
148 183.206 183.206 -0.427
149 189.488 189.488 -0.414
150 177.515 177.515 -0.435
151 174.922 174.922 -0.439
152 169.232 169.232 -0.449
153 161.681 161.681 -0.462
154 164.485 164.485 -0.456
155 161.873 161.873 -0.460
156 165.305 165.305 -0.453
157 175.746 175.746 -0.433
158 171.137 171.137 -0.441
159 183.859 183.859 -0.417
160 190.048 190.048 -0.404
161 194.641 194.641 -0.395
162 184.681 184.681 -0.413
163 179.033 179.033 -0.422
164 171.442 171.442 -0.435
165 166.239 166.239 -0.444
166 168.249 168.249 -0.440
167 166.490 166.490 -0.442
168 169.801 169.801 -0.435
169 177.636 177.636 -0.420
170 174.738 174.738 -0.425
171 187.871 187.871 -0.400
172 189.156 189.156 -0.397
173 191.437 191.437 -0.392
174 183.530 183.530 -0.406
175 178.732 178.732 -0.414
176 176.202 176.202 -0.418
177 167.812 167.812 -0.432
178 169.147 169.147 -0.429
179 166.931 166.931 -0.432
180 172.690 172.690 -0.421
181 181.396 181.396 -0.404
182 176.859 176.859 -0.412
183 190.548 190.548 -0.386
184 192.591 192.591 -0.382
185 195.443 195.443 -0.376
186 189.163 189.163 -0.386
187 184.682 184.682 -0.394
188 180.103 180.103 -0.402
189 172.112 172.112 -0.415
190 173.405 173.405 -0.412
191 173.220 173.220 -0.412
192 175.412 175.412 -0.407
193 187.351 187.351 -0.385
194 180.946 180.946 -0.396
195 195.430 195.430 -0.368
196 196.488 196.488 -0.366
197 199.004 199.004 -0.361
198 194.335 194.335 -0.368
199 191.982 191.982 -0.372
200 187.571 187.571 -0.379
201 179.218 179.218 -0.394
202 180.255 180.255 -0.391
203 175.311 175.311 -0.400
204 179.044 179.044 -0.392
205 185.003 185.003 -0.381
206 177.860 177.860 -0.393
207 189.718 189.718 -0.371
208 191.606 191.606 -0.366
209 194.232 194.232 -0.361
210 188.589 188.589 -0.371
211 186.931 186.931 -0.373
212 182.445 182.445 -0.380
213 172.497 172.497 -0.398
214 175.708 175.708 -0.391
215 171.860 171.860 -0.398
216 175.625 175.625 -0.390
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
 Forecast Error

Time series of MTM Leche with forecasts superimposed

122.904 5.938
128.180 -0.138
127.379 12.987 Observation
139.728 -0.660 Forecast
138.428 1.060
138.849 -4.123
134.081 -1.368
132.065 -2.428
128.984 -3.762
124.563 1.619
125.526 0.509
0 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100109118127136145154163172181190199208217226235
125.379 4.135
Time
128.866 -1.598
126.617 0.568
126.535 11.675
137.582 1.944
138.901 0.312
138.589 -2.416
135.544 -2.290
132.621 -3.491
128.491 -5.495
122.347 1.459
123.159 -1.209
121.301 5.515
126.177 8.063
133.616 1.558
134.554 13.913
147.871 1.171
148.447 0.242
148.097 -4.597
142.898 -2.508
139.784 -4.401
134.768 -5.854
128.289 0.975
128.641 -0.888
1 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211
1 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 4.168
127.128 211
130.679 7.871
137.947 -1.053
136.289 13.928
149.638 2.359
151.422 3.109
153.962 -7.088
146.291 -4.716
140.984 -4.757
135.627 -4.502
130.517 0.758
130.668 -3.425
126.631 5.233
131.260 11.386
142.064 1.280
142.763 14.504
156.713 2.981
159.146 1.689
160.290 -9.241
150.487 -3.087
146.832 -5.311
140.944 -5.483
134.873 0.576
134.863 -1.708
132.566 5.142
137.128 9.199
145.764 2.793
148.000 13.581
161.047 4.348
164.869 -0.960
163.382 -7.200
155.642 -3.937
151.157 -6.202
144.397 -6.021
137.807 0.734
137.972 -1.504
135.897 5.525
140.861 7.136
147.449 0.000
146.901 15.624
162.006 4.185
165.679 -2.188
162.975 -6.254
156.194 -3.100
152.561 -5.588
146.430 -6.040
139.835 0.130
139.412 -0.533
138.324 5.807
143.587 8.766
151.825 0.355
151.652 15.043
166.195 4.316
170.018 -2.957
166.563 -7.298
158.754 -3.396
154.841 -6.403
147.909 -5.977
141.392 -1.417
139.432 1.153
140.045 5.829
145.344 10.018
154.850 0.786
155.126 14.491
169.134 1.042
169.694 0.204
169.417 -6.124
162.800 -3.156
159.146 -2.991
155.651 -7.653
147.480 4.765
151.736 -1.091
150.134 2.375
152.003 3.831
155.334 5.435
160.279 13.102
172.915 1.843
174.295 0.207
174.040 -6.105
167.462 -0.922
166.065 -1.232
164.355 -9.307
154.554 -0.029
154.031 -2.754
150.778 4.054
154.340 9.235
163.100 -2.477
160.144 15.997
175.691 2.376
177.621 5.655
182.841 -7.297
175.095 -5.124
169.513 -4.179
164.868 -5.165
159.228 0.960
159.714 -0.697
158.543 3.691
161.766 9.586
170.901 -3.391
167.052 13.522
180.142 3.065
182.780 6.708
189.074 -11.559
177.079 -2.157
174.483 -5.250
168.784 -7.102
161.219 3.265
164.029 -2.155
161.413 3.892
164.852 10.894
175.313 -4.176
170.697 13.162
183.442 6.605
189.643 4.997
194.245 -9.564
184.269 -5.236
178.610 -7.168
171.007 -4.767
165.795 2.454
167.810 -1.320
166.048 3.753
169.365 8.270
177.216 -2.478
174.314 13.557
187.471 1.685
188.759 2.677
191.045 -7.514
183.125 -4.393
178.318 -2.117
175.784 -7.972
167.380 1.767
168.718 -1.787
166.499 6.191
172.269 9.127
180.992 -4.133
176.447 14.100
190.162 2.429
192.210 3.234
195.068 -5.905
188.776 -4.095
184.288 -4.185
179.702 -7.590
171.696 1.709
172.993 0.227
172.808 2.604
175.005 12.347
186.967 -6.021
180.550 14.880
195.061 1.427
196.123 2.881
198.643 -4.308
193.966 -1.984
191.610 -4.039
187.192 -7.973
178.824 1.430
179.863 -4.552
174.912 4.132
178.652 6.351
184.622 -6.762
177.467 12.250
189.347 2.259
191.239 2.993
193.872 -5.283
188.218 -1.288
186.558 -4.113
182.064 -9.568
172.099 3.610
175.317 -3.457
171.463 4.162
175.235
174.845
174.455
174.065
173.675
173.285
172.895
172.505
172.115
171.725
171.335
170.945
170.555
170.165
169.774
169.384
168.994
168.604
168.214
167.824
167.434
167.044
166.654
166.264
Forecasting results for MTM Leche Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
1 120.913
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 118.465 Time se
3 133.183
220.000
Smoothing constant(s) 4 132.466
Level 0.375 5 131.821
Trend 0.017 6 200.000
127.641
Seasonality 1.000 7 125.406
8 121.453
180.000
Estimation period 9 115.892
10 117.324
160.000
MAE 1.8497 11 115.641
RMSE 2.4202 12 122.720 123.577 0.673
140.000
MAPE 1.19% 13 128.842 127.034 0.720
14 128.042 129.932 0.756
15 120.000
140.367 130.522 0.754
16 139.068 130.698 0.744
17 139.487
100.000 131.188 0.740
18 1
134.727 7 13 19 25 31
131.369 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 8
0.730
19 132.713 131.604 0.722
20 129.637 132.168 0.719
21 125.223 133.126 0.723
22 126.182 133.497 0.717
23 126.034 134.390 0.720
24 129.514 133.352 0.691
25 127.268 130.835 0.637
26 127.185 130.569 0.622
27 138.211 130.189 0.605
28 139.526 130.920 0.607
29 139.213 131.303 0.603
30 136.173 132.234 0.609
31 133.254 132.579 0.604
32 129.130 132.610 0.595
33 122.996 132.288 0.579
34 123.806 132.161 0.567
35 121.950 131.719 0.550
36 126.816 131.634 0.540
37 134.241 134.358 0.576
Forecast
38 errors for MTM136.373
135.175 Leche 0.601
39 148.466 138.051 0.619
10.000
40 149.041 139.111 0.626
8.000 41 148.690 139.926 0.629
42 143.500 140.103 0.622
6.000
43 140.390 140.333 0.615
4.000 44 135.383 140.230 0.603
45 128.914 140.016 0.589
2.000
46 129.264 139.625 0.573
0.000 47 127.753 139.369 0.559
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190
-2.000

-4.000
 4.000

2.000

0.000
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 48
78 85 92131.296
99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155
138.563 162 169 176 183 190
0.536
-2.000
49 138.550 138.939 0.533
-4.000 50 136.894 138.961 0.525
51 150.217 139.558 0.526
-6.000
52 151.997 140.753 0.537
-8.000 53 154.531 142.839 0.563
54 146.874 143.400 0.563
-10.000
55 141.575 143.047 0.548
56 Time
136.227 142.661 0.532
57 131.125 142.903 0.527
58 131.275 142.818 0.517
59 127.244 141.640 0.488
60 131.864 141.017 0.470
61 142.646 142.071 0.480
62 143.343 143.659 0.498
63 157.267 144.888 0.511
64 159.694 146.329 0.526
65 160.835 147.533 0.538
66 151.049 147.848 0.534
67 147.400 148.588 0.537
68 141.521 148.781 0.531
69 135.461 148.681 0.521
70 135.449 148.512 0.509
71 133.155 148.721 0.504
72 137.708 148.492 0.492
73 146.328 147.767 0.471
74 148.558 148.481 0.476
75 161.580 148.921 0.475
76 165.395 150.204 0.489
77 163.909 150.565 0.486
78 156.182 151.734 0.498
79 151.705 152.493 0.502
80 144.956 152.769 0.498
81 138.376 152.748 0.490
82 138.541 152.737 0.481
83 136.468 152.920 0.476
84 141.422 153.059 0.471
85 147.997 152.002 0.445
86 147.449 150.545 0.413
87 162.525 150.521 0.406
88 166.191 150.927 0.406
89 163.491 150.901 0.398
90 156.721 151.659 0.404
91 153.094 152.747 0.416
92 146.973 153.812 0.427
93 140.389 154.513 0.431
94 139.966 154.706 0.427
95 138.879 155.316 0.431
 96 144.131 155.838 0.432
97 152.353 156.347 0.433
98 152.180 156.254 0.425
99 166.695 155.819 0.410
100 170.511 155.712 0.401
101 167.061 155.395 0.389
102 159.265 155.161 0.379
103 155.358 155.340 0.375
104 148.438 155.577 0.373
105 141.932 156.047 0.375
106 139.975 155.783 0.364
107 140.585 156.551 0.371
108 145.874 157.222 0.376
109 155.362 158.286 0.387
110 155.636 159.097 0.395
111 169.617 159.138 0.389
112 170.176 157.983 0.363
113 169.898 158.229 0.361
114 163.293 158.775 0.364
115 159.644 159.321 0.367
116 156.155 161.178 0.392
117 147.998 162.000 0.399
118 152.245 165.037 0.443
119 150.645 166.332 0.458
120 152.509 165.884 0.443
121 155.833 163.494 0.395
122 160.768 164.059 0.398
123 173.381 163.787 0.387
124 174.758 163.448 0.374
125 174.502 163.333 0.366
126 167.935 163.546 0.364
127 166.540 164.769 0.378
128 164.833 167.016 0.409
129 155.048 168.284 0.424
130 154.525 168.259 0.416
131 151.277 168.058 0.406
132 154.832 168.444 0.406
133 163.575 169.886 0.423
134 160.623 167.912 0.383
135 176.141 167.583 0.371
136 178.067 167.425 0.362
137 183.277 169.195 0.386
138 175.544 170.096 0.394
139 169.971 169.618 0.380
140 165.334 169.071 0.364
141 159.703 170.897 0.389
142 160.188 172.462 0.408
143 159.018 174.289 0.432
144 162.234 175.387 0.443
145 171.351 176.629 0.457
146 167.509 176.346 0.444
147 180.574 174.920 0.413
148 183.206 174.181 0.394
149 189.488 174.707 0.396
150 177.515 173.942 0.376
151 174.922 174.409 0.378
152 169.232 174.139 0.367
153 161.681 173.947 0.358
154 164.485 175.347 0.375
155 161.873 176.358 0.386
156 165.305 177.480 0.398
157 175.746 179.107 0.419
158 171.137 179.766 0.423
159 183.859 179.407 0.410
160 190.048 180.142 0.415
161 194.641 180.145 0.408
162 184.681 180.708 0.411
163 179.033 180.140 0.394
164 171.442 178.990 0.368
165 166.239 179.168 0.365
166 168.249 179.469 0.364
167 166.490 180.415 0.374
168 169.801 181.358 0.383
169 177.636 181.476 0.379
170 174.738 182.489 0.390
171 187.871 183.045 0.392
172 189.156 181.886 0.366
173 191.437 180.351 0.334
174 183.530 180.272 0.328
175 178.732 180.314 0.323
176 176.202 181.882 0.344
177 167.812 181.715 0.335
178 169.147 181.441 0.325
179 166.931 181.439 0.319
180 172.690 182.765 0.336
181 181.396 183.932 0.350
182 176.859 184.440 0.353
183 190.548 185.115 0.358
184 192.591 185.367 0.356
185 195.443 185.125 0.346
186 189.163 185.596 0.349
187 184.682 186.084 0.351
188 180.103 186.238 0.348
189 172.112 186.505 0.346
190 173.405 186.536 0.341
191 173.220 187.400 0.350
192 175.412 186.961 0.336
193 187.351 188.299 0.353
194 180.946 188.671 0.354
195 195.430 189.337 0.359
196 196.488 189.479 0.355
197 199.004 189.333 0.347
198 194.335 190.051 0.353
199 191.982 191.542 0.372
200 187.571 192.681 0.385
201 179.218 193.493 0.392
202 180.255 193.892 0.392
203 175.311 192.553 0.363
204 179.044 192.135 0.350
205 185.003 190.032 0.309
206 177.860 188.510 0.278
207 189.718 186.920 0.247
208 191.606 186.269 0.232
209 194.232 185.861 0.221
210 188.589 185.464 0.211
211 186.931 185.984 0.216
212 182.445 186.655 0.223
213 172.497 186.638 0.219
214 175.708 187.661 0.233
215 171.860 188.219 0.238
216 175.625 188.461 0.238
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
 SmSeason Forecast Error
0.978
Time series
0.959 of MTM Leche with forecasts superimposed
1.078
1.072
1.067
1.033
1.015
0.983
0.938
0.949 Obs
0.936 Fore
0.993
1.014 121.572 7.270
0.985 122.469 5.573
1.075 140.847 -0.481
1.064 140.718 -1.650
1.063 140.211 -0.724
7 43 49 55 61 67 731.026
79 85 91 97 103109115121127133139145151157163169175181187193199205211217223229235
136.266 -1.540
1.008 134.054 Time -1.341
0.981 130.052 -0.415
0.941 124.623 0.599
0.945 127.077 -0.895
0.938 125.595 0.439
0.971 134.173 -4.659
0.973 135.950 -8.682
0.974 129.559 -2.374
1.062 141.086 -2.876
1.066 139.169 0.357
1.060 139.847 -0.634
1.030 135.277 0.896
1.005 133.962 -0.708
0.974 130.633 -1.503
0.930 125.296 -2.300
0.937 125.588 -1.782
0.926 124.476 -2.526
0.963 128.462 -1.646
0.999 128.570 5.670
0.991 131.438 3.737
1.075 145.413 3.054
1.071 147.786 1.255
1.063 148.155 0.534
1.024 144.743 -1.243
1.000 141.441 -1.051
0.965 137.250 -1.867
0.921 130.940 -2.026
0.926 131.716 -2.452
0.917 129.800 -2.047
1 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211
1 148 155 162 169 176 0.948
183 190 197 204 211
134.806 -3.510
0.997 138.977 -0.427
0.985 138.247 -1.353
1.076 150.009 0.208
1.080 150.083 1.914
1.082 150.140 4.392
1.024 146.879 -0.005
0.990 144.022 -2.447
0.955 138.632 -2.405
0.918 131.840 -0.715
0.919 132.787 -1.513
0.898 131.388 -4.144
0.935 134.675 -2.812
1.004 141.091 1.555
0.998 140.431 2.912
1.085 155.167 2.100
1.091 157.013 2.681
1.090 158.876 1.959
1.022 151.657 -0.609
0.992 146.855 0.545
0.951 142.399 -0.878
0.911 137.006 -1.545
0.912 137.143 -1.694
0.895 133.874 -0.718
0.927 139.539 -1.831
0.990 149.587 -3.259
1.001 147.914 0.644
1.085 161.683 -0.103
1.101 163.041 2.353
1.089 164.279 -0.370
1.029 154.322 1.860
0.995 151.014 0.691
0.949 145.529 -0.573
0.906 139.639 -1.263
0.907 139.760 -1.219
0.892 137.182 -0.713
0.924 142.256 -0.834
0.974 152.034 -4.037
0.979 152.526 -5.077
1.080 163.791 -1.266
1.101 166.191 0.000
1.083 164.745 -1.253
1.033 155.735 0.987
1.002 151.278 1.816
0.956 145.330 1.643
0.909 139.727 0.663
0.905 140.543 -0.577
0.894 138.444 0.435
0.925 143.905 0.226
0.974 152.153 0.200
0.974 153.556 -1.376
1.070 169.174 -2.479
1.095 172.029 -1.518
1.075 169.138 -2.077
1.026 160.985 -1.720
1.000 155.892 -0.534
0.954 148.791 -0.353
0.910 141.695 0.237
0.899 141.518 -1.544
0.898 139.622 0.964
0.928 145.133 0.741
0.982 153.571 1.790
0.978 154.536 1.100
1.066 170.624 -1.007
1.077 174.688 -4.513
1.074 170.233 -0.335
1.028 162.784 0.508
1.002 159.158 0.486
0.969 152.361 3.794
0.914 146.955 1.043
0.922 145.919 6.326
0.906 148.604 2.041
0.919 154.751 -2.242
0.953 163.254 -7.421
0.980 160.324 0.444
1.059 175.286 -1.905
1.069 176.844 -2.086
1.068 175.904 -1.402
1.027 168.357 -0.422
1.011 164.241 2.298
0.987 160.000 4.833
0.921 152.954 2.094
0.918 155.632 -1.106
0.900 152.767 -1.490
0.919 154.881 -0.049
0.963 160.938 2.636
0.957 166.893 -6.270
1.051 178.152 -2.011
1.064 179.575 -1.508
1.083 179.261 4.016
1.032 174.132 1.412
1.002 172.323 -2.352
0.978 167.776 -2.442
0.934 156.108 3.594
0.929 157.305 2.883
0.912 155.608 3.410
0.925 160.602 1.632
0.970 169.298 2.054
0.950 169.399 -1.890
1.032 185.819 -5.245
1.052 186.478 -3.271
1.085 189.103 0.385
1.021 180.711 -3.197
1.003 174.681 0.241
0.972 170.923 -1.691
0.929 163.076 -1.394
0.938 161.899 2.585
0.918 160.325 1.548
0.931 163.489 1.816
0.981 172.562 3.184
0.952 170.530 0.607
1.025 186.012 -2.153
1.055 189.134 0.913
1.080 195.832 -1.192
1.022 184.261 0.420
0.994 181.651 -2.619
0.958 175.448 -4.006
0.928 166.711 -0.472
0.937 168.411 -0.162
0.923 165.062 1.427
0.936 168.388 1.413
0.979 178.331 -0.695
0.958 173.126 1.612
1.026 187.417 0.454
1.040 193.524 -4.368
1.061 196.917 -5.481
1.018 184.659 -1.129
0.991 179.489 -0.757
0.969 173.019 3.182
0.923 169.076 -1.264
0.932 170.669 -1.523
0.920 167.736 -0.805
0.945 170.176 2.514
0.986 179.226 2.170
0.959 176.454 0.405
1.029 189.665 0.883
1.039 192.887 -0.296
1.056 197.139 -1.695
1.019 188.824 0.339
0.992 184.313 0.368
0.967 180.613 -0.510
0.923 172.310 -0.198
0.930 174.190 -0.785
0.924 171.934 1.286
0.938 177.400 -1.989
0.995 184.716 2.635
0.959 180.898 0.048
1.032 194.572 0.858
1.037 197.089 -0.600
1.051 200.415 -1.412
1.023 193.325 1.009
1.002 188.969 3.013
0.973 185.592 1.979
0.926 178.166 1.052
0.930 180.237 0.017
0.910 179.583 -4.271
0.932 180.999 -1.955
0.974 191.517 -6.514
0.944 182.548 -4.688
1.015 194.863 -5.146
1.029 194.090 -2.484
1.045 196.026 -1.794
1.017 190.276 -1.687
1.005 186.101 0.829
0.977 181.262 1.182
0.924 173.092 -0.595
0.936 173.714 1.994
0.913 171.070 0.791
0.932 175.617 0.008
183.705
178.264
192.007
194.841
198.195
193.091
191.097
186.074
176.164
178.689
174.475
178.290
186.490
180.963
194.911
197.784
201.184
195.999
193.972
188.869
178.808
181.367
177.087
180.956
 Observation
Forecast

3229235
Forecasting results for MTM Leche Date Observation
1 120.913
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 118.465
3 133.183
Smoothing constant(s) 4 132.466
Level 1.000 5 131.821
Trend 0.044 6 127.641
7 125.406
Estimation period 8 121.453
Deseas Actual 9 115.892
MAE 1.5217 1.5275 10 117.324
RMSE 2.0128 2.0250 11 115.641
MAPE 0.96% 0.96% 12 122.720
Un error bueno es menor al 5% 13 128.842
14 128.042
15 140.367
Time series of MTM Leche with forec
16 139.068
250.000 17 139.487
18 134.727
19 132.713
200.000 20 129.637
21 125.223
22 126.182
150.000
23 126.034
24 129.514
25 127.268
100.000
26 127.185
27 138.211
50.000 28 139.526
29 139.213
30 136.173
0.000 31 133.254
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 32 129.130
96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141
33 122.996
Time
34 123.806
35 121.950
36 126.816
Deseasonalized time series of MTM Leche with
37 forecasts
134.241 superimposed
38 135.175
250.000
39 148.466
40 149.041
200.000 41 148.690
42 143.500
43 140.390
150.000 44 135.383
45 128.914
46 129.264
100.000 47 127.753

50.000
150.000

100.000
48 131.296
49 138.550
50.000 50 136.894
51 150.217
52 151.997
0.000
53 154.531
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105113121129137145153161169177185193201209217225233
54 146.874
Time 55 141.575
56 136.227
57 131.125
58 131.275
59 127.244
60 131.864
61 142.646
62 143.343
63 157.267
64 159.694
65 160.835
66 151.049
67 147.400
68 141.521
69 135.461
70 135.449
71 133.155
72 137.708
73 146.328
74 148.558
75 161.580
76 165.395
77 163.909
78 156.182
79 151.705
80 144.956
81 138.376
82 138.541
83 136.468
84 141.422
85 147.997
86 147.449
87 162.525
88 166.191
89 163.491
90 156.721
91 153.094
92 146.973
93 140.389
94 139.966
95 138.879
 96 144.131
97 152.353
98 152.180
99 166.695
100 170.511
101 167.061
102 159.265
103 155.358
104 148.438
105 141.932
106 139.975
107 140.585
108 145.874
109 155.362
110 155.636
111 169.617
112 170.176
113 169.898
114 163.293
115 159.644
116 156.155
117 147.998
118 152.245
119 150.645
120 152.509
121 155.833
122 160.768
123 173.381
124 174.758
125 174.502
126 167.935
127 166.540
128 164.833
129 155.048
130 154.525
131 151.277
132 154.832
133 163.575
134 160.623
135 176.141
136 178.067
137 183.277
138 175.544
139 169.971
140 165.334
141 159.703
142 160.188
143 159.018
144 162.234
145 171.351
146 167.509
147 180.574
148 183.206
149 189.488
150 177.515
151 174.922
152 169.232
153 161.681
154 164.485
155 161.873
156 165.305
157 175.746
158 171.137
159 183.859
160 190.048
161 194.641
162 184.681
163 179.033
164 171.442
165 166.239
166 168.249
167 166.490
168 169.801
169 177.636
170 174.738
171 187.871
172 189.156
173 191.437
174 183.530
175 178.732
176 176.202
177 167.812
178 169.147
179 166.931
180 172.690
181 181.396
182 176.859
183 190.548
184 192.591
185 195.443
186 189.163
187 184.682
188 180.103
189 172.112
190 173.405
191 173.220
192 175.412
193 187.351
194 180.946
195 195.430
196 196.488
197 199.004
198 194.335
199 191.982
200 187.571
201 179.218
202 180.255
203 175.311
204 179.044
205 185.003
206 177.860
207 189.718
208 191.606
209 194.232
210 188.589
211 186.931
212 182.445
213 172.497
214 175.708
215 171.860
216 175.625
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
 SeasIndex DeseasObs SmLevel SmTrend DeseasFCast DeseasError Forecast
0.996 121.376
0.986 120.190
1.069 124.548
1.080 122.637
1.085 121.463
1.039 122.858
1.014 123.710
0.980 123.874
0.936 123.874
0.939 124.953
0.925 124.991
0.951 129.097 123.631 -0.679
0.996 129.336 129.336 -0.399 122.952 6.384 122.483
0.986 129.906 129.906 -0.356 128.937 0.969 127.086
1.069
f MTM Leche with forecasts131.266
superimposed 131.266 -0.281 129.550 1.716 138.532
1.080 128.749 128.749 -0.379 130.985 -2.236 141.483
1.085 128.527 128.527 -0.372 128.370 0.157 139.317
1.039 129.678 129.678 -0.305 128.154 1.523 133.144
1.014 130.919 130.919 -0.238 129.372 1.547 131.145
0.980 132.221 132.221 -0.170 130.681 1.540 128.127
0.936 133.846 133.846 -0.091 132.051 1.796 123.542
0.939 134.387 134.387 -0.064 133.755 0.632 125.589
0.925 136.224 136.224 0.020 134.323 1.901 124.276
0.951 136.244 136.244 0.020 136.244 0.000 Observation
129.514
0.996 127.755 127.755 -0.353 136.263 -8.508 Forecast
135.743
0.986 129.037 129.037 -0.282 127.402 1.635 125.574
1.069 129.250 129.250 -0.260 128.755 0.494 137.682
1.080 129.173 129.173 -0.252 128.989 0.184 139.328
1.085 128.274 128.274 -0.280 128.921 -0.647 139.916
1.039 131.070 131.070 -0.145 127.994 3.077 132.977
1.014 131.453 131.453 -0.122 130.925 0.528 132.719
0.980
1 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146131.704
151 156 161 166 131.704 -0.106
171 176 181 186 191 131.330
196 201 206 211 216 221 226 231 0.374
236 128.764
Time 0.936 131.467 131.467 -0.112 131.598 -0.132 123.119
0.939 131.856 131.856 -0.090 131.355 0.501 123.335
0.925 131.809 131.809 -0.088 131.766 0.043 121.910
0.951 133.406 133.406 -0.014 131.721 1.684 125.215
forecasts superimposed 0.996 134.755 134.755 0.046 133.392 1.363 132.883
0.986 137.143 137.143 0.148 134.801 2.342 132.866
1.069 138.840 138.840 0.216 137.291 1.549 146.810
1.080 137.982 137.982 0.169 139.057 -1.075 150.202
1.085 137.006 137.006 0.119 138.151 -1.146 149.933
1.039 138.122 138.122 0.163 137.125 0.997 142.464
1.014 138.492 138.492 0.172 138.285 0.207 140.180
0.980 138.081 138.081 0.146 138.664 -0.583 135.954
0.936 137.792 137.792
Deseas Observation
0.127 138.228 -0.435 129.321
0.939 137.670 137.670
Deseas Forecast 0.116 137.919 -0.250 129.499
0.925 138.081 138.081 0.129 137.786 0.295 127.479
 Deseas Observation
Deseas Forecast

0.951 138.119 138.119 0.125 138.210 -0.092 131.383

0.996 139.081 139.081 0.162 138.244 0.837 137.716
0.986 138.887 138.887 0.146 139.243 -0.356 137.245
1.069 140.478 140.478 0.210 139.034 1.444 148.673
1.080 140.719 140.719 0.211 140.687 0.031 151.963
1.085 142.388 142.388 0.275 140.930 1.459 152.948
77185193201209217225233
1.039 141.370 141.370 0.218 142.663 -1.293 148.217
1.014 139.661 139.661 0.134 141.588 -1.927 143.528
0.980 138.942 138.942 0.096 139.795 -0.853 137.063
0.936 140.155 140.155 0.145 139.039 1.116 130.080
0.939 139.810 139.810 0.124 140.300 -0.490 131.735
0.925 137.531 137.531 0.018 139.934 -2.403 129.467
0.951 138.716 138.716 0.070 137.549 1.166 130.755
0.996 143.193 143.193 0.263 138.785 4.407 138.256
0.986 145.431 145.431 0.349 143.456 1.975 141.397
1.069 147.070 147.070 0.406 145.780 1.290 155.887
1.080 147.845 147.845 0.422 147.476 0.368 159.296
1.085 148.197 148.197 0.419 148.267 -0.070 160.911
1.039 145.389 145.389 0.278 148.616 -3.227 154.402
1.014 145.407 145.407 0.266 145.666 -0.259 147.662
0.980 144.342 144.342 0.208 145.673 -1.331 142.826
0.936 144.790 144.790 0.218 144.550 0.240 135.236
0.939 144.257 144.257 0.185 145.008 -0.751 136.155
0.925 143.921 143.921 0.163 144.442 -0.521 133.638
0.951 144.864 144.864 0.197 144.083 0.781 136.966
0.996 146.888 146.888 0.277 145.061 1.828 144.507
0.986 150.721 150.721 0.433 147.165 3.556 145.053
1.069 151.104 151.104 0.431 151.154 -0.050 161.633
1.080 153.122 153.122 0.500 151.535 1.587 163.680
1.085 151.029 151.029 0.387 153.622 -2.593 166.724
1.039 150.329 150.329 0.339 151.416 -1.087 157.311
1.014 149.654 149.654 0.294 150.668 -1.014 152.733
0.980 147.846 147.846 0.202 149.949 -2.103 147.018
0.936 147.906 147.906 0.196 148.048 -0.142 138.509
0.939 147.549 147.549 0.172 148.102 -0.553 139.060
0.925 147.502 147.502 0.162 147.721 -0.219 136.671
0.951 148.771 148.771 0.211 147.664 1.107 140.370
0.996 148.564 148.564 0.192 148.982 -0.417 148.413
0.986 149.596 149.596 0.229 148.756 0.839 146.622
1.069 151.988 151.988 0.324 149.825 2.163 160.213
1.080 153.859 153.859 0.392 152.312 1.548 164.519
1.085 150.644 150.644 0.234 154.251 -3.607 167.406
1.039 150.849 150.849 0.232 150.878 -0.029 156.752
1.014 151.024 151.024 0.230 151.081 -0.057 153.151
0.980 149.902 149.902 0.171 151.254 -1.352 148.298
0.936 150.058 150.058 0.170 150.073 -0.015 140.404
0.939 149.067 149.067 0.119 150.228 -1.161 141.056
0.925 150.107 150.107 0.159 149.186 0.921 138.027
0.951 151.621 151.621 0.219 150.266 1.355 142.843
0.996 152.937 152.937 0.267 151.840 1.097 151.260
0.986 154.396 154.396 0.319 153.204 1.192 151.005
1.069 155.887 155.887 0.371 154.715 1.172 165.442
1.080 157.859 157.859 0.441 156.258 1.601 168.782
1.085 153.933 153.933 0.249 158.299 -4.366 171.799
1.039 153.297 153.297 0.211 154.183 -0.886 160.185
1.014 153.258 153.258 0.200 153.507 -0.249 155.611
0.980 151.397 151.397 0.109 153.457 -2.060 150.458
0.936 151.707 151.707 0.118 151.506 0.200 141.744
0.939 149.076 149.076 -0.002 151.825 -2.748 142.555
0.925 151.951 151.951 0.124 149.074 2.878 137.923
0.951 153.454 153.454 0.184 152.075 1.379 144.563
0.996 155.957 155.957 0.286 153.638 2.319 153.052
0.986 157.902 157.902 0.359 156.243 1.659 154.001
1.069 158.620 158.620 0.374 158.261 0.359 169.233
1.080 157.548 157.548 0.311 158.994 -1.446 171.737
1.085 156.548 156.548 0.253 157.859 -1.312 171.322
1.039 157.173 157.173 0.270 156.801 0.372 162.906
1.014 157.486 157.486 0.272 157.443 0.043 159.601
0.980 159.268 159.268 0.338 157.757 1.510 154.674
0.936 158.190 158.190 0.276 159.605 -1.415 149.322
0.939 162.144 162.144 0.437 158.466 3.678 148.791
0.925 162.824 162.824 0.448 162.581 0.243 150.420
0.951 160.434 160.434 0.323 163.272 -2.838 155.207
0.996 156.430 156.430 0.134 160.757 -4.327 160.144
0.986 163.109 163.109 0.421 156.564 6.545 154.317
1.069 162.139 162.139 0.360 163.530 -1.390 174.867
1.080 161.791 161.791 0.329 162.499 -0.708 175.523
1.085 160.790 160.790 0.270 162.119 -1.329 175.945
1.039 161.642 161.642 0.296 161.060 0.582 167.331
1.014 164.288 164.288 0.399 161.938 2.351 164.157
0.980 168.118 168.118 0.549 164.687 3.431 161.468
0.936 165.726 165.726 0.420 168.668 -2.941 157.800
0.939 164.573 164.573 0.351 166.147 -1.574 156.003
0.925 163.507 163.507 0.289 164.924 -1.417 152.588
0.951 162.878 162.878 0.249 163.796 -0.919 155.705
0.996 164.202 164.202 0.296 163.127 1.075 162.504
0.986 162.962 162.962 0.229 164.498 -1.536 162.137
1.069 164.721 164.721 0.296 163.191 1.530 174.505
1.080 164.854 164.854 0.289 165.017 -0.162 178.242
1.085 168.875 168.875 0.452 165.143 3.732 179.227
1.039 168.966 168.966 0.436 169.327 -0.361 175.919
1.014 167.673 167.673 0.361 169.402 -1.729 171.724
0.980 168.629 168.629 0.387 168.034 0.596 164.750
0.936 170.702 170.702 0.461 169.016 1.685 158.126
0.939 170.604 170.604 0.436 171.162 -0.558 160.712
0.925 171.874 171.874 0.473 171.040 0.834 158.246
0.951 170.664 170.664 0.399 172.347 -1.683 163.833
0.996 172.008 172.008 0.440 171.063 0.945 170.410
0.986 169.948 169.948 0.331 172.448 -2.500 169.973
1.069 168.866 168.866 0.269 170.279 -1.413 182.085
1.080 169.612 169.612 0.290 169.135 0.477 182.691
1.085 174.598 174.598 0.496 169.902 4.696 184.392
1.039 170.862 170.862 0.310 175.094 -4.231 181.911
1.014 172.558 172.558 0.371 171.173 1.385 173.518
0.980 172.606 172.606 0.357 172.928 -0.323 169.549
0.936 172.816 172.816 0.350 172.963 -0.146 161.818
0.939 175.180 175.180 0.439 173.167 2.013 162.594
0.925 174.960 174.960 0.410 175.618 -0.658 162.482
0.951 173.895 173.895 0.345 175.370 -1.475 166.707
0.996 176.420 176.420 0.441 174.240 2.180 173.575
0.986 173.629 173.629 0.299 176.860 -3.231 174.322
1.069 171.938 171.938 0.212 173.928 -1.990 185.987
1.080 175.946 175.946 0.378 172.150 3.796 185.947
1.085 179.346 179.346 0.511 176.324 3.022 191.361
1.039 177.761 177.761 0.419 179.856 -2.096 186.859
1.014 176.612 176.612 0.350 178.179 -1.567 180.621
0.980 174.859 174.859 0.258 176.962 -2.103 173.504
0.936 177.688 177.688 0.371 175.117 2.571 163.834
0.939 179.190 179.190 0.420 178.059 1.131 167.187
0.925 179.950 179.950 0.435 179.610 0.340 166.175
0.951 178.624 178.624 0.358 180.385 -1.761 171.475
0.996 178.317 178.317 0.329 178.982 -0.665 178.299
0.986 177.282 177.282 0.269 178.645 -1.363 176.081
1.069 175.690 175.690 0.187 177.551 -1.861 189.861
1.080 175.120 175.120 0.154 175.877 -0.757 189.974
1.085 176.394 176.394 0.203 175.275 1.119 190.222
1.039 176.653 176.653 0.206 176.597 0.056 183.472
1.014 176.316 176.316 0.182 176.858 -0.543 179.282
0.980 179.714 179.714 0.323 176.498 3.216 173.048
0.936 179.369 179.369 0.294 180.037 -0.668 168.437
0.939 180.145 180.145 0.315 179.663 0.482 168.694
0.925 180.427 180.427 0.313 180.460 -0.033 166.961
0.951 181.664 181.664 0.354 180.740 0.923 171.812
0.996 182.092 182.092 0.357 182.017 0.074 181.322
0.986 179.434 179.434 0.225 182.449 -3.014 179.830
1.069 178.194 178.194 0.161 179.659 -1.466 192.115
1.080 178.301 178.301 0.158 178.354 -0.053 192.649
1.085 180.086 180.086 0.230 178.459 1.626 193.678
1.039 182.074 182.074 0.307 180.315 1.759 187.335
1.014 182.185 182.185 0.298 182.381 -0.196 184.880
0.980 183.693 183.693 0.351 182.483 1.210 178.917
0.936 183.965 183.965 0.348 184.044 -0.079 172.186
0.939 184.680 184.680 0.364 184.313 0.368 173.060
0.925 187.224 187.224 0.459 185.044 2.180 171.203
0.951 184.527 184.527 0.321 187.683 -3.157 178.412
0.996 188.069 188.069 0.462 184.848 3.221 184.142
0.986 183.581 183.581 0.245 188.531 -4.951 185.826
1.069 182.759 182.759 0.198 183.826 -1.067 196.571
1.080 181.909 181.909 0.152 182.957 -1.049 197.621
1.085 183.366 183.366 0.210 182.061 1.305 197.588
1.039 187.052 187.052 0.362 183.576 3.477 190.723
1.014 189.387 189.387 0.449 187.414 1.972 189.983
0.980 191.310 191.310 0.513 189.835 1.475 186.125
0.936 191.561 191.561 0.502 191.823 -0.262 179.464
0.939 191.975 191.975 0.498 192.063 -0.087 180.337
0.925 189.485 189.485 0.367 192.473 -2.988 178.076
0.951 188.348 188.348 0.301 189.852 -1.504 180.474
0.996 185.712 185.712 0.172 188.649 -2.937 187.929
0.986 180.450 180.450 -0.066 185.884 -5.434 183.216
1.069 177.417 177.417 -0.196 180.384 -2.967 192.890
1.080 177.389 177.389 -0.189 177.221 0.168 191.425
1.085 178.970 178.970 -0.111 177.200 1.770 192.311
1.039 181.522 181.522 0.006 178.859 2.663 185.822
1.014 184.404 184.404 0.132 181.527 2.876 184.015
0.980 186.082 186.082 0.199 184.535 1.546 180.929
0.936 184.376 184.376 0.116 186.281 -1.905 174.279
0.939 187.134 187.134 0.232 184.492 2.641 173.229
0.925 185.755 185.755 0.161 187.365 -1.610 173.350
0.951 184.751 184.751 0.110 185.916 -1.165 176.732
0.996 184.861 184.155
0.986 184.971 182.316
1.069 185.081 197.913
1.080 185.191 200.034
1.085 185.301 201.104
1.039 185.411 192.630
1.014 185.521 188.064
0.980 185.631 182.003
0.936 185.741 173.774
0.939 185.851 174.505
0.925 185.961 172.051
0.951 186.071 176.880
0.996 186.182 185.471
0.986 186.292 183.618
1.069 186.402 199.325
1.080 186.512 201.460
1.085 186.622 202.537
1.039 186.732 194.002
1.014 186.842 189.402
0.980 186.952 183.298
0.936 187.062 175.009
0.939 187.172 175.745
0.925 187.282 173.273
0.951 187.392 178.135
 Error

6.359
0.955
1.835
-2.415
0.171
1.583
1.568
1.510
1.680
0.593
1.759
Observation 0.000
Forecast -8.476
1.612
0.528
0.199
-0.703
3.196
0.535
0.367
-0.123
0.470
0.040
1.601
1.358
2.309
1.656
-1.161
-1.243
1.036
0.210
-0.571
-0.407
-0.235
0.273
-0.087
0.834
-0.351
1.544
0.034
1.583
-1.344
-1.953
-0.836
1.045
-0.460
-2.224
1.109
4.391
1.947
1.380
0.398
-0.076
-3.353
-0.262
-1.305
0.224
-0.706
-0.482
0.742
1.821
3.505
-0.053
1.715
-2.814
-1.129
-1.028
-2.062
-0.132
-0.520
-0.203
1.052
-0.416
0.827
2.313
1.672
-3.915
-0.031
-0.058
-1.325
-0.014
-1.090
0.852
 1.288
1.093
1.175
1.254
1.729
-4.738
-0.921
-0.253
-2.020
0.187
-2.580
2.662
1.311
2.310
1.635
0.384
-1.562
-1.424
0.387
0.043
1.481
-1.324
3.454
0.225
-2.698
-4.311
6.451
-1.487
-0.765
-1.442
0.604
2.383
3.364
-2.752
-1.478
-1.311
-0.873
1.071
-1.514
1.636
-0.175
4.050
-0.375
-1.753
0.584
1.577
-0.524
0.772
-1.599
0.941
-2.464
-1.511
0.516
5.096
-4.396
1.404
-0.316
-0.137
1.890
-0.609
-1.402
2.171
-3.185
-2.128
4.100
3.279
-2.177
-1.588
-2.062
2.405
1.062
0.315
-1.674
-0.663
-1.343
-1.990
-0.818
1.214
0.058
-0.550
3.153
-0.625
0.453
-0.030
0.877
0.074
-2.971
-1.567
-0.057
1.765
1.828
-0.199
1.186
-0.074
0.345
2.017
-3.001
3.209
-4.880
-1.141
-1.133
1.416
3.612
1.999
1.446
-0.246
-0.082
-2.765
-1.430
-2.926
-5.356
-3.172
0.181
1.921
2.767
2.916
1.516
-1.782
2.480
-1.490
-1.108
Season Ratio
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.974
9.000 0.925
10.000 0.932
11.000 0.914
12.000 0.965
1.000 1.009
2.000 0.997
3.000 1.087
4.000 1.071
5.000 1.068
6.000 1.026
7.000 1.009
8.000 0.986
9.000 0.953
10.000 0.961
11.000 0.960
12.000 0.986
1.000 0.968
2.000 0.968
3.000 1.052
4.000 1.064
5.000 1.064
6.000 1.043
7.000 1.019
8.000 0.983
9.000 0.931
10.000 0.931
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.943
1.000 0.994
2.000 0.997
3.000 1.091
4.000 1.091
5.000 1.085
6.000 1.044
7.000 1.018
8.000 0.980
9.000 0.932
10.000 0.934
11.000 0.920
12.000 0.943
1.000 0.994
2.000 0.982
3.000 1.076
4.000 1.087
5.000 1.105
6.000 1.050
7.000 1.011
8.000 0.970
9.000 0.930
10.000 0.927
11.000 0.895
12.000 0.924
1.000 0.997
2.000 0.999
3.000 1.092
4.000 1.107
5.000 1.111
6.000 1.040
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.969
9.000 0.925
10.000 0.923
11.000 0.905
12.000 0.934
1.000 0.989
2.000 1.002
3.000 1.088
4.000 1.112
5.000 1.100
6.000 1.046
7.000 1.015
8.000 0.969
9.000 0.925
10.000 0.926
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.945
1.000 0.989
2.000 0.984
3.000 1.083
4.000 1.107
5.000 1.088
6.000 1.041
7.000 1.015
8.000 0.972
9.000 0.926
10.000 0.921
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.945
1.000 0.998
2.000 0.995
3.000 1.090
4.000 1.114
5.000 1.091
6.000 1.039
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.965
9.000 0.922
10.000 0.908
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.944
1.000 1.003
2.000 1.002
3.000 1.088
4.000 1.086
5.000 1.078
6.000 1.031
7.000 1.006
8.000 0.983
9.000 0.930
10.000 0.954
11.000 0.942
12.000 0.951
1.000 0.969
2.000 0.996
3.000 1.069
4.000 1.075
5.000 1.073
6.000 1.032
7.000 1.021
8.000 1.008
9.000 0.948
10.000 0.943
11.000 0.920
12.000 0.938
1.000 0.988
2.000 0.970
3.000 1.062
4.000 1.071
5.000 1.098
6.000 1.048
7.000 1.011
8.000 0.980
9.000 0.944
10.000 0.944
11.000 0.935
12.000 0.952
1.000 1.004
2.000 0.979
3.000 1.054
4.000 1.068
5.000 1.102
6.000 1.031
7.000 1.014
8.000 0.979
9.000 0.934
10.000 0.948
11.000 0.930
12.000 0.947
1.000 1.004
2.000 0.977
3.000 1.048
4.000 1.081
5.000 1.105
6.000 1.046
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.968
9.000 0.937
10.000 0.948
11.000 0.939
12.000 0.958
1.000 1.003
2.000 0.986
3.000 1.058
4.000 1.065
5.000 1.077
6.000 1.032
7.000 1.003
8.000 0.988
9.000 0.940
10.000 0.946
11.000 0.932
12.000 0.962
1.000 1.008
2.000 0.980
3.000 1.054
4.000 1.063
5.000 1.076
6.000 1.040
7.000 1.013
8.000 0.986
9.000 0.940
10.000 0.945
11.000 0.942
12.000 0.953
1.000 1.014
2.000 0.977
3.000 1.051
4.000 1.054
5.000 1.065
6.000 1.039
7.000 1.026
8.000 1.003
9.000 0.961
10.000 0.969
11.000 0.944
12.000 0.966
1.000 1.001
2.000 0.965
3.000 1.032
4.000 1.045
5.000 1.061
6.000 1.032
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
Season SeasIndex Average
1.000 0.996 1.000
2.000 0.985
3.000 1.069
4.000 1.080
5.000 1.085
6.000 1.039
7.000 1.014
8.000 0.980
9.000 0.935
10.000 0.939
11.000 0.925
12.000 0.950
Forecasting results for MTM Leche Date Observation SeasIndex
1 120.913 0.996
Holt's exponential smoothing 2 118.465 0.986
3 133.183 1.069
Smoothing constant(s) 4 132.466 1.080
Level 1.000 5 131.821 1.085
Trend 0.044 6 127.641 1.039
7 125.406 1.014
Estimation period 8 121.453 0.980
Deseas Actual 9 115.892 0.936
MAE 1.5217 1.5275 10 117.324 0.939
RMSE 2.0128 2.0250 11 115.641 0.925
MAPE 0.96% 0.96% 12 122.720 0.951
13 128.842 0.996
14 128.042 0.986
15 140.367 1.069
16 139.068 1.080
17 139.487 1.085
18 134.727 1.039
19 132.713 1.014
20 129.637 0.980
21 125.223 0.936
22 126.182 0.939
23 126.034 0.925
24 129.514 0.951
25 127.268 0.996
26 127.185 0.986
27 138.211 1.069
28 139.526 1.080
29 139.213 1.085
30 136.173 1.039
31 133.254 1.014
32 129.130 0.980
33 122.996 0.936
34 123.806 0.939
35 121.950 0.925
36 126.816 0.951
Deseasonalized time series of MTM Leche
37 with forecasts superimposed
134.241 0.996
38 135.175 0.986
250.000
39 148.466 1.069
40 149.041 1.080
200.000 41 148.690 1.085
42 143.500 1.039
43 140.390 1.014
150.000 44 135.383 0.980
45 128.914 0.936 Des
46 129.264 0.939 Des
100.000 47 127.753 0.925

50.000
150.000
Des
Des
100.000
48 131.296 0.951
49 138.550 0.996
50.000 50 136.894 0.986
51 150.217 1.069
52 151.997 1.080
0.000
53 154.531 1.085
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100109118127136145154163172181190199208217226235
54 146.874 1.039
Time 55 141.575 1.014
56 136.227 0.980
57 131.125 0.936
58 131.275 0.939
59 127.244 0.925
60 131.864 0.951
61 142.646 0.996
62 143.343 0.986
63 157.267 1.069
64 159.694 1.080
65 160.835 1.085
66 151.049 1.039
67 147.400 1.014
68 141.521 0.980
69 135.461 0.936
70 135.449 0.939
71 133.155 0.925
72 137.708 0.951
73 146.328 0.996
74 148.558 0.986
75 161.580 1.069
76 165.395 1.080
77 163.909 1.085
78 156.182 1.039
79 151.705 1.014
80 144.956 0.980
81 138.376 0.936
82 138.541 0.939
83 136.468 0.925
84 141.422 0.951
85 147.997 0.996
86 147.449 0.986
87 162.525 1.069
88 166.191 1.080
89 163.491 1.085
90 156.721 1.039
91 153.094 1.014
92 146.973 0.980
93 140.389 0.936
94 139.966 0.939
95 138.879 0.925
 96 144.131 0.951
97 152.353 0.996
98 152.180 0.986
99 166.695 1.069
100 170.511 1.080
101 167.061 1.085
102 159.265 1.039
103 155.358 1.014
104 148.438 0.980
105 141.932 0.936
106 139.975 0.939
107 140.585 0.925
108 145.874 0.951
109 155.362 0.996
110 155.636 0.986
111 169.617 1.069
112 170.176 1.080
113 169.898 1.085
114 163.293 1.039
115 159.644 1.014
116 156.155 0.980
117 147.998 0.936
118 152.245 0.939
119 150.645 0.925
120 152.509 0.951
121 155.833 0.996
122 160.768 0.986
123 173.381 1.069
124 174.758 1.080
125 174.502 1.085
126 167.935 1.039
127 166.540 1.014
128 164.833 0.980
129 155.048 0.936
130 154.525 0.939
131 151.277 0.925
132 154.832 0.951
133 163.575 0.996
134 160.623 0.986
135 176.141 1.069
136 178.067 1.080
137 183.277 1.085
138 175.544 1.039
139 169.971 1.014
140 165.334 0.980
141 159.703 0.936
142 160.188 0.939
143 159.018 0.925
144 162.234 0.951
145 171.351 0.996
146 167.509 0.986
147 180.574 1.069
148 183.206 1.080
149 189.488 1.085
150 177.515 1.039
151 174.922 1.014
152 169.232 0.980
153 161.681 0.936
154 164.485 0.939
155 161.873 0.925
156 165.305 0.951
157 175.746 0.996
158 171.137 0.986
159 183.859 1.069
160 190.048 1.080
161 194.641 1.085
162 184.681 1.039
163 179.033 1.014
164 171.442 0.980
165 166.239 0.936
166 168.249 0.939
167 166.490 0.925
168 169.801 0.951
169 177.636 0.996
170 174.738 0.986
171 187.871 1.069
172 189.156 1.080
173 191.437 1.085
174 183.530 1.039
175 178.732 1.014
176 176.202 0.980
177 167.812 0.936
178 169.147 0.939
179 166.931 0.925
180 172.690 0.951
181 181.396 0.996
182 176.859 0.986
183 190.548 1.069
184 192.591 1.080
185 195.443 1.085
186 189.163 1.039
187 184.682 1.014
188 180.103 0.980
189 172.112 0.936
190 173.405 0.939
191 173.220 0.925
192 175.412 0.951
193 187.351 0.996
194 180.946 0.986
195 195.430 1.069
196 196.488 1.080
197 199.004 1.085
198 194.335 1.039
199 191.982 1.014
200 187.571 0.980
201 179.218 0.936
202 180.255 0.939
203 175.311 0.925
204 179.044 0.951
205 185.003 0.996
206 177.860 0.986
207 189.718 1.069
208 191.606 1.080
209 194.232 1.085
210 188.589 1.039
211 186.931 1.014
212 182.445 0.980
213 172.497 0.936
214 175.708 0.939
215 171.860 0.925
216 175.625 0.951
217 0.996
218 0.986
219 1.069
220 1.080
221 1.085
222 1.039
223 1.014
224 0.980
225 0.936
226 0.939
227 0.925
228 0.951
229 0.996
230 0.986
231 1.069
232 1.080
233 1.085
234 1.039
235 1.014
236 0.980
237 0.936
238 0.939
239 0.925
240 0.951
 DeseasObs SmLevel SmTrend DeseasFCast DeseasError Forecast Error
121.376
120.190
124.548
122.637
121.463
122.858
123.710
123.874 Time series of MTM Leche with forecasts
123.874
124.953 250.000
124.991
129.097 123.631 -0.679
200.000
129.336 129.336 -0.399 122.952 6.384 122.483 6.359
129.906 129.906 -0.356 128.937 0.969 127.086 0.955
131.266 131.266 -0.281 129.550 1.716 138.532 1.835
150.000
128.749 128.749 -0.379 130.985 -2.236 141.483 -2.415
128.527 128.527 -0.372 128.370 0.157 139.317 0.171
129.678 129.678 -0.305
100.000 128.154 1.523 133.144 1.583
130.919 130.919 -0.238 129.372 1.547 131.145 1.568
132.221 132.221 -0.170 130.681 1.540 128.127 1.510
133.846 133.846 -0.091
50.000 132.051 1.796 123.542 1.680
134.387 134.387 -0.064 133.755 0.632 125.589 0.593
136.224 136.224 0.020 134.323 1.901 124.276 1.759
136.244 136.244 0.0200.000 136.244 0.000 129.514 0.000
127.755 127.755 -0.353 1 10 19
136.263 28 37 46 55 64
-8.508 73 82 91 100
135.743 109 118 127 136 145 154 163 172
-8.476
129.037 129.037 -0.282 127.402 1.635 125.574 Time 1.612
129.250 129.250 -0.260 128.755 0.494 137.682 0.528
129.173 129.173 -0.252 128.989 0.184 139.328 0.199
128.274 128.274 -0.280 128.921 -0.647 139.916 -0.703
131.070 131.070 -0.145 127.994 3.077 132.977 3.196
131.453 131.453 -0.122 130.925 0.528 132.719 0.535
131.704 131.704 -0.106 131.330 0.374 128.764 0.367
131.467 131.467 -0.112 131.598 -0.132 123.119 -0.123
131.856 131.856 -0.090 131.355 0.501 123.335 0.470
131.809 131.809 -0.088 131.766 0.043 121.910 0.040
133.406 133.406 -0.014 131.721 1.684 125.215 1.601
s superimposed
134.755 134.755 0.046 133.392 1.363 132.883 1.358
137.143 137.143 0.148 134.801 2.342 132.866 2.309
138.840 138.840 0.216 137.291 1.549 146.810 1.656
137.982 137.982 0.169 139.057 -1.075 150.202 -1.161
137.006 137.006 0.119 138.151 -1.146 149.933 -1.243
138.122 138.122 0.163 137.125 0.997 142.464 1.036
138.492 138.492 0.172 138.285 0.207 140.180 0.210
138.081 138.081 0.146 138.664 -0.583 135.954 -0.571
137.792 137.792
Deseas Observation
0.127 138.228 -0.435 129.321 -0.407
137.670 137.670
Deseas Forecast 0.116 137.919 -0.250 129.499 -0.235
138.081 138.081 0.129 137.786 0.295 127.479 0.273
 Deseas Observation
Deseas Forecast

138.119 138.119 0.125 138.210 -0.092 131.383 -0.087

139.081 139.081 0.162 138.244 0.837 137.716 0.834
138.887 138.887 0.146 139.243 -0.356 137.245 -0.351
140.478 140.478 0.210 139.034 1.444 148.673 1.544
140.719 140.719 0.211 140.687 0.031 151.963 0.034
142.388 142.388 0.275 140.930 1.459 152.948 1.583
08217226235
141.370 141.370 0.218 142.663 -1.293 148.217 -1.344
139.661 139.661 0.134 141.588 -1.927 143.528 -1.953
138.942 138.942 0.096 139.795 -0.853 137.063 -0.836
140.155 140.155 0.145 139.039 1.116 130.080 1.045
139.810 139.810 0.124 140.300 -0.490 131.735 -0.460
137.531 137.531 0.018 139.934 -2.403 129.467 -2.224
138.716 138.716 0.070 137.549 1.166 130.755 1.109
143.193 143.193 0.263 138.785 4.407 138.256 4.391
145.431 145.431 0.349 143.456 1.975 141.397 1.947
147.070 147.070 0.406 145.780 1.290 155.887 1.380
147.845 147.845 0.422 147.476 0.368 159.296 0.398
148.197 148.197 0.419 148.267 -0.070 160.911 -0.076
145.389 145.389 0.278 148.616 -3.227 154.402 -3.353
145.407 145.407 0.266 145.666 -0.259 147.662 -0.262
144.342 144.342 0.208 145.673 -1.331 142.826 -1.305
144.790 144.790 0.218 144.550 0.240 135.236 0.224
144.257 144.257 0.185 145.008 -0.751 136.155 -0.706
143.921 143.921 0.163 144.442 -0.521 133.638 -0.482
144.864 144.864 0.197 144.083 0.781 136.966 0.742
146.888 146.888 0.277 145.061 1.828 144.507 1.821
150.721 150.721 0.433 147.165 3.556 145.053 3.505
151.104 151.104 0.431 151.154 -0.050 161.633 -0.053
153.122 153.122 0.500 151.535 1.587 163.680 1.715
151.029 151.029 0.387 153.622 -2.593 166.724 -2.814
150.329 150.329 0.339 151.416 -1.087 157.311 -1.129
149.654 149.654 0.294 150.668 -1.014 152.733 -1.028
147.846 147.846 0.202 149.949 -2.103 147.018 -2.062
147.906 147.906 0.196 148.048 -0.142 138.509 -0.132
147.549 147.549 0.172 148.102 -0.553 139.060 -0.520
147.502 147.502 0.162 147.721 -0.219 136.671 -0.203
148.771 148.771 0.211 147.664 1.107 140.370 1.052
148.564 148.564 0.192 148.982 -0.417 148.413 -0.416
149.596 149.596 0.229 148.756 0.839 146.622 0.827
151.988 151.988 0.324 149.825 2.163 160.213 2.313
153.859 153.859 0.392 152.312 1.548 164.519 1.672
150.644 150.644 0.234 154.251 -3.607 167.406 -3.915
150.849 150.849 0.232 150.878 -0.029 156.752 -0.031
151.024 151.024 0.230 151.081 -0.057 153.151 -0.058
149.902 149.902 0.171 151.254 -1.352 148.298 -1.325
150.058 150.058 0.170 150.073 -0.015 140.404 -0.014
149.067 149.067 0.119 150.228 -1.161 141.056 -1.090
150.107 150.107 0.159 149.186 0.921 138.027 0.852
151.621 151.621 0.219 150.266 1.355 142.843 1.288
152.937 152.937 0.267 151.840 1.097 151.260 1.093
154.396 154.396 0.319 153.204 1.192 151.005 1.175
155.887 155.887 0.371 154.715 1.172 165.442 1.254
157.859 157.859 0.441 156.258 1.601 168.782 1.729
153.933 153.933 0.249 158.299 -4.366 171.799 -4.738
153.297 153.297 0.211 154.183 -0.886 160.185 -0.921
153.258 153.258 0.200 153.507 -0.249 155.611 -0.253
151.397 151.397 0.109 153.457 -2.060 150.458 -2.020
151.707 151.707 0.118 151.506 0.200 141.744 0.187
149.076 149.076 -0.002 151.825 -2.748 142.555 -2.580
151.951 151.951 0.124 149.074 2.878 137.923 2.662
153.454 153.454 0.184 152.075 1.379 144.563 1.311
155.957 155.957 0.286 153.638 2.319 153.052 2.310
157.902 157.902 0.359 156.243 1.659 154.001 1.635
158.620 158.620 0.374 158.261 0.359 169.233 0.384
157.548 157.548 0.311 158.994 -1.446 171.737 -1.562
156.548 156.548 0.253 157.859 -1.312 171.322 -1.424
157.173 157.173 0.270 156.801 0.372 162.906 0.387
157.486 157.486 0.272 157.443 0.043 159.601 0.043
159.268 159.268 0.338 157.757 1.510 154.674 1.481
158.190 158.190 0.276 159.605 -1.415 149.322 -1.324
162.144 162.144 0.437 158.466 3.678 148.791 3.454
162.824 162.824 0.448 162.581 0.243 150.420 0.225
160.434 160.434 0.323 163.272 -2.838 155.207 -2.698
156.430 156.430 0.134 160.757 -4.327 160.144 -4.311
163.109 163.109 0.421 156.564 6.545 154.317 6.451
162.139 162.139 0.360 163.530 -1.390 174.867 -1.487
161.791 161.791 0.329 162.499 -0.708 175.523 -0.765
160.790 160.790 0.270 162.119 -1.329 175.945 -1.442
161.642 161.642 0.296 161.060 0.582 167.331 0.604
164.288 164.288 0.399 161.938 2.351 164.157 2.383
168.118 168.118 0.549 164.687 3.431 161.468 3.364
165.726 165.726 0.420 168.668 -2.941 157.800 -2.752
164.573 164.573 0.351 166.147 -1.574 156.003 -1.478
163.507 163.507 0.289 164.924 -1.417 152.588 -1.311
162.878 162.878 0.249 163.796 -0.919 155.705 -0.873
164.202 164.202 0.296 163.127 1.075 162.504 1.071
162.962 162.962 0.229 164.498 -1.536 162.137 -1.514
164.721 164.721 0.296 163.191 1.530 174.505 1.636
164.854 164.854 0.289 165.017 -0.162 178.242 -0.175
168.875 168.875 0.452 165.143 3.732 179.227 4.050
168.966 168.966 0.436 169.327 -0.361 175.919 -0.375
167.673 167.673 0.361 169.402 -1.729 171.724 -1.753
168.629 168.629 0.387 168.034 0.596 164.750 0.584
170.702 170.702 0.461 169.016 1.685 158.126 1.577
170.604 170.604 0.436 171.162 -0.558 160.712 -0.524
171.874 171.874 0.473 171.040 0.834 158.246 0.772
170.664 170.664 0.399 172.347 -1.683 163.833 -1.599
172.008 172.008 0.440 171.063 0.945 170.410 0.941
169.948 169.948 0.331 172.448 -2.500 169.973 -2.464
168.866 168.866 0.269 170.279 -1.413 182.085 -1.511
169.612 169.612 0.290 169.135 0.477 182.691 0.516
174.598 174.598 0.496 169.902 4.696 184.392 5.096
170.862 170.862 0.310 175.094 -4.231 181.911 -4.396
172.558 172.558 0.371 171.173 1.385 173.518 1.404
172.606 172.606 0.357 172.928 -0.323 169.549 -0.316
172.816 172.816 0.350 172.963 -0.146 161.818 -0.137
175.180 175.180 0.439 173.167 2.013 162.594 1.890
174.960 174.960 0.410 175.618 -0.658 162.482 -0.609
173.895 173.895 0.345 175.370 -1.475 166.707 -1.402
176.420 176.420 0.441 174.240 2.180 173.575 2.171
173.629 173.629 0.299 176.860 -3.231 174.322 -3.185
171.938 171.938 0.212 173.928 -1.990 185.987 -2.128
175.946 175.946 0.378 172.150 3.796 185.947 4.100
179.346 179.346 0.511 176.324 3.022 191.361 3.279
177.761 177.761 0.419 179.856 -2.096 186.859 -2.177
176.612 176.612 0.350 178.179 -1.567 180.621 -1.588
174.859 174.859 0.258 176.962 -2.103 173.504 -2.062
177.688 177.688 0.371 175.117 2.571 163.834 2.405
179.190 179.190 0.420 178.059 1.131 167.187 1.062
179.950 179.950 0.435 179.610 0.340 166.175 0.315
178.624 178.624 0.358 180.385 -1.761 171.475 -1.674
178.317 178.317 0.329 178.982 -0.665 178.299 -0.663
177.282 177.282 0.269 178.645 -1.363 176.081 -1.343
175.690 175.690 0.187 177.551 -1.861 189.861 -1.990
175.120 175.120 0.154 175.877 -0.757 189.974 -0.818
176.394 176.394 0.203 175.275 1.119 190.222 1.214
176.653 176.653 0.206 176.597 0.056 183.472 0.058
176.316 176.316 0.182 176.858 -0.543 179.282 -0.550
179.714 179.714 0.323 176.498 3.216 173.048 3.153
179.369 179.369 0.294 180.037 -0.668 168.437 -0.625
180.145 180.145 0.315 179.663 0.482 168.694 0.453
180.427 180.427 0.313 180.460 -0.033 166.961 -0.030
181.664 181.664 0.354 180.740 0.923 171.812 0.877
182.092 182.092 0.357 182.017 0.074 181.322 0.074
179.434 179.434 0.225 182.449 -3.014 179.830 -2.971
178.194 178.194 0.161 179.659 -1.466 192.115 -1.567
178.301 178.301 0.158 178.354 -0.053 192.649 -0.057
180.086 180.086 0.230 178.459 1.626 193.678 1.765
182.074 182.074 0.307 180.315 1.759 187.335 1.828
182.185 182.185 0.298 182.381 -0.196 184.880 -0.199
183.693 183.693 0.351 182.483 1.210 178.917 1.186
183.965 183.965 0.348 184.044 -0.079 172.186 -0.074
184.680 184.680 0.364 184.313 0.368 173.060 0.345
187.224 187.224 0.459 185.044 2.180 171.203 2.017
184.527 184.527 0.321 187.683 -3.157 178.412 -3.001
188.069 188.069 0.462 184.848 3.221 184.142 3.209
183.581 183.581 0.245 188.531 -4.951 185.826 -4.880
182.759 182.759 0.198 183.826 -1.067 196.571 -1.141
181.909 181.909 0.152 182.957 -1.049 197.621 -1.133
183.366 183.366 0.210 182.061 1.305 197.588 1.416
187.052 187.052 0.362 183.576 3.477 190.723 3.612
189.387 189.387 0.449 187.414 1.972 189.983 1.999
191.310 191.310 0.513 189.835 1.475 186.125 1.446
191.561 191.561 0.502 191.823 -0.262 179.464 -0.246
191.975 191.975 0.498 192.063 -0.087 180.337 -0.082
189.485 189.485 0.367 192.473 -2.988 178.076 -2.765
188.348 188.348 0.301 189.852 -1.504 180.474 -1.430
185.712 185.712 0.172 188.649 -2.937 187.929 -2.926
180.450 180.450 -0.066 185.884 -5.434 183.216 -5.356
177.417 177.417 -0.196 180.384 -2.967 192.890 -3.172
177.389 177.389 -0.189 177.221 0.168 191.425 0.181
178.970 178.970 -0.111 177.200 1.770 192.311 1.921
181.522 181.522 0.006 178.859 2.663 185.822 2.767
184.404 184.404 0.132 181.527 2.876 184.015 2.916
186.082 186.082 0.199 184.535 1.546 180.929 1.516
184.376 184.376 0.116 186.281 -1.905 174.279 -1.782
187.134 187.134 0.232 184.492 2.641 173.229 2.480
185.755 185.755 0.161 187.365 -1.610 173.350 -1.490
184.751 184.751 0.110 185.916 -1.165 176.732 -1.108
184.861 184.155
184.971 182.316
185.081 197.913
185.191 200.034
185.301 201.104
185.411 192.630
185.521 188.064
185.631 182.003
185.741 173.774
185.851 174.505
185.961 172.051
186.071 176.880
186.182 185.471
186.292 183.618
186.402 199.325
186.512 201.460
186.622 202.537
186.732 194.002
186.842 189.402
186.952 183.298
187.062 175.009
187.172 175.745
187.282 173.273
187.392 178.135
eche with forecasts superimposed

Observation
Forecast

9 118 127 136 145 154 163 172 181 190 199 208 217 226 235
e
Season Ratio Season
1.000 1.000
2.000 2.000
3.000 3.000
4.000 4.000
5.000 5.000
6.000 6.000
7.000 1.012 7.000
8.000 0.974 8.000
9.000 0.925 9.000
10.000 0.932 10.000
11.000 0.914 11.000
12.000 0.965 12.000
1.000 1.009
2.000 0.997
3.000 1.087
4.000 1.071
5.000 1.068
6.000 1.026
7.000 1.009
8.000 0.986
9.000 0.953
10.000 0.961
11.000 0.960
12.000 0.986
1.000 0.968
2.000 0.968
3.000 1.052
4.000 1.064
5.000 1.064
6.000 1.043
7.000 1.019
8.000 0.983
9.000 0.931
10.000 0.931
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.943
1.000 0.994
2.000 0.997
3.000 1.091
4.000 1.091
5.000 1.085
6.000 1.044
7.000 1.018
8.000 0.980
9.000 0.932
10.000 0.934
11.000 0.920
12.000 0.943
1.000 0.994
2.000 0.982
3.000 1.076
4.000 1.087
5.000 1.105
6.000 1.050
7.000 1.011
8.000 0.970
9.000 0.930
10.000 0.927
11.000 0.895
12.000 0.924
1.000 0.997
2.000 0.999
3.000 1.092
4.000 1.107
5.000 1.111
6.000 1.040
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.969
9.000 0.925
10.000 0.923
11.000 0.905
12.000 0.934
1.000 0.989
2.000 1.002
3.000 1.088
4.000 1.112
5.000 1.100
6.000 1.046
7.000 1.015
8.000 0.969
9.000 0.925
10.000 0.926
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.945
1.000 0.989
2.000 0.984
3.000 1.083
4.000 1.107
5.000 1.088
6.000 1.041
7.000 1.015
8.000 0.972
9.000 0.926
10.000 0.921
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.945
1.000 0.998
2.000 0.995
3.000 1.090
4.000 1.114
5.000 1.091
6.000 1.039
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.965
9.000 0.922
10.000 0.908
11.000 0.912
12.000 0.944
1.000 1.003
2.000 1.002
3.000 1.088
4.000 1.086
5.000 1.078
6.000 1.031
7.000 1.006
8.000 0.983
9.000 0.930
10.000 0.954
11.000 0.942
12.000 0.951
1.000 0.969
2.000 0.996
3.000 1.069
4.000 1.075
5.000 1.073
6.000 1.032
7.000 1.021
8.000 1.008
9.000 0.948
10.000 0.943
11.000 0.920
12.000 0.938
1.000 0.988
2.000 0.970
3.000 1.062
4.000 1.071
5.000 1.098
6.000 1.048
7.000 1.011
8.000 0.980
9.000 0.944
10.000 0.944
11.000 0.935
12.000 0.952
1.000 1.004
2.000 0.979
3.000 1.054
4.000 1.068
5.000 1.102
6.000 1.031
7.000 1.014
8.000 0.979
9.000 0.934
10.000 0.948
11.000 0.930
12.000 0.947
1.000 1.004
2.000 0.977
3.000 1.048
4.000 1.081
5.000 1.105
6.000 1.046
7.000 1.012
8.000 0.968
9.000 0.937
10.000 0.948
11.000 0.939
12.000 0.958
1.000 1.003
2.000 0.986
3.000 1.058
4.000 1.065
5.000 1.077
6.000 1.032
7.000 1.003
8.000 0.988
9.000 0.940
10.000 0.946
11.000 0.932
12.000 0.962
1.000 1.008
2.000 0.980
3.000 1.054
4.000 1.063
5.000 1.076
6.000 1.040
7.000 1.013
8.000 0.986
9.000 0.940
10.000 0.945
11.000 0.942
12.000 0.953
1.000 1.014
2.000 0.977
3.000 1.051
4.000 1.054
5.000 1.065
6.000 1.039
7.000 1.026
8.000 1.003
9.000 0.961
10.000 0.969
11.000 0.944
12.000 0.966
1.000 1.001
2.000 0.965
3.000 1.032
4.000 1.045
5.000 1.061
6.000 1.032
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
SeasIndex Average
0.996 1.000
0.985
1.069
1.080
1.085
1.039
1.014
0.980
0.935
0.939
0.925
0.950