Chevrolet Habitaciones
Camisa Arturo
MES Spark 1.0 Color Reservadas JW
Calle Ref. X1.2
Gris Plata Marriott
Aug-16 246 163 758
Sep-16 237 171 102
Oct-16 271 162 728
Nov-16 273 169 178
Dec-16 274 137 27
Jan-17 319 161 807
Feb-17 368 144 897
Mar-17 351 158 465
Apr-17 316 139 851
May-17 278 168 17
Jun-17 241 125 192
Jul-17 282 144 147
Aug-17 288 149 759
Sep-17 281 146 103
Oct-17 321 123 61
Nov-17 317 165 533
Dec-17 322 142 342
Jan-18 378 131 211
Feb-18 417 136 843
Mar-18 409 162 176
Apr-18 359 149 818
May-18 310 128 526
Jun-18 275 103 496
Jul-18 310 96 321
Aug-18 319 102 278
Sep-18 305 99 102
Oct-18 360 100 503
Nov-18 352 106 408
Dec-18 359 98 672
Jan-19 426 89 699
Feb-19 469 99 152
Mar-19 471 104 649
Apr-19 408 93 73
May-19 351 61 385
Jun-19 309 64 830
Jul-19 340 51 48
Aug-19 344 69 438
Sep-19 322 56 104
Oct-19 366 65 542
Nov-19 352 73 93
Dec-19 367 65 989
Jan-20 439 66 646
Feb-20 495 68 948
Mar-20 509 54 734
Apr-20 408 63 363
May-20 363 64 362
600
Media móvil
500
400
Valor
300
Real
Pronóstic
o
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Punto de datos
600
Media móvil
500
400
Valor
300
Real
Pronóstic
o
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Punto de datos
600
Suavización exponencial
500
400
Valor
300
Real
Pronóstic
o
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Punto de datos
Chevrolet SUAVIZACION VALOR
MES Spark 1.0 Color PROMEDIO PROMEDIO EXPONENCIAL Y-Y ABSOLUTO
MOVIL N:2 MOVIL N:3
Gris Plata ALPHA 0,02 DEL ERROR
Jan-15 246 #N/A
Feb-15 237 #N/A #N/A 246
Mar-15 271 242 #N/A 237 30 30
Apr-15 273 254 251 270 19 19
May-15 274 272 260 273 2 2
Jun-15 319 274 273 274 46 46
Jul-15 368 297 289 318 72 72
Aug-15 351 344 320 367 8 8
Sep-15 316 360 346 351 - 44 44
Oct-15 278 334 345 317 - 56 56
Nov-15 241 297 315 279 - 56 56
Dec-15 282 260 278 242 23 23
Jan-16 288 262 267 281 27 27
Feb-16 281 285 270 288 - 4 4
Mar-16 321 285 284 281 37 37
Apr-16 317 301 297 320 16 16
May-16 322 319 306 317 3 3
Jun-16 378 320 320 322 59 59
Jul-16 417 350 339 377 67 67
Aug-16 409 398 372 416 12 12
Sep-16 359 413 401 409 - 54 54
Oct-16 310 384 395 360 - 74 74
Nov-16 275 335 359 311 - 60 60
Dec-16 310 293 315 276 18 18
Jan-17 319 293 298 309 27 27
Feb-17 305 315 301 319 - 10 10
Mar-17 360 312 311 305 48 48
Apr-17 352 333 328 359 20 20
May-17 359 356 339 352 3 3
Jun-17 426 356 357 359 71 71
Jul-17 469 393 379 425 77 77
Aug-17 471 448 418 468 24 24
Sep-17 408 470 455 471 - 62 62
Oct-17 351 440 449 409 - 89 89
Nov-17 309 380 410 352 - 71 71
Dec-17 340 330 356 310 10 10
Jan-18 344 325 333 339 20 20
Feb-18 322 342 331 344 - 20 20
Mar-18 366 333 335 322 33 33
Apr-18 352 344 344 365 8 8
May-18 367 359 347 352 8 8
Jun-18 439 360 362 367 80 80
Jul-18 495 403 386 438 92 92
Aug-18 509 467 434 494 42 42
Sep-18 408 502 481 509 - 94 94
Oct-18 363 459 471 410 - 96 96
Nov-18 386 386 427 364 - 1,780
Dec-18 374 374 43 45 - 44
Jan-19 380 380 - 40
Feb-19 377 377 - 426
Mar-19 378 378 - 345
Apr-19 378 378 - 11.42%
May-19 378 378 -
VALOR
ERROR PORCENTUAL Y-Y ABSOLUTO ERROR PORCENTUAL Y-Y
DEL ERROR
11% 0
7% 22 22 13 - 22
1% 14 14 20 - 14
14% 46 46 7 - 46
19% 79 79 5 - 79
2% 31 31 11 - 31
14% - 30 30 11 30
20% - 67 67 4 67
23% - 74 74 3 74
8% 4 4 77 - 4
9% 21 21 14 - 21
1% 11 11 26 - 11
11% 37 37 9 - 37
5% 20 20 16 - 20
1% 16 16 21 - 16
15% 58 58 7 - 58
16% 78 78 5 - 78
3% 37 37 11 - 37
15% - 42 42 8 42
24% - 85 85 4 85
22% - 84 84 3 85
6% - 5 5 66 5
8% 21 21 15 - 21
3% 4 4 83 - 4
13% 49 49 7 - 49
6% 24 24 15 - 24
1% 20 20 18 - 20
17% 69 69 6 - 69
16% 90 90 5 - 90
5% 53 53 9 - 53
15% - 47 47 9 47
25% - 98 98 4 99
23% - 101 101 3 101
3% - 16 16 21 16
6% 11 11 32 - 11
6% - 9 9 36 9
9% 31 31 12 - 31
2% 8 8 44 - 8
2% 20 20 18 - 20
18% 77 77 6 - 77
19% 109 109 5 - 109
8% 75 75 7 - 75
23% - 73 73 6 73
26% - 108 108 3 108
5 294 #DIV/0!
NUMERO DE PRONOSTICOS
DAM
MAS VENTA
MENOS VENTA
PEMA(MAPE)
VALOR ERROR
ABSOLUTO PORCENTU
DEL ERROR AL
0 100%
22 31032%
14 187133%
46 32384%
79 40732%
31 143420%
30 21893%
67 33660%
74 31946%
4 4496%
21 22723%
11 74833%
37 32733%
20 40185%
16 168056%
58 37377%
78 48446%
37 130306%
42 28244%
85 35708%
85 39078%
5 8367%
21 24778%
4 11672%
49 36400%
24 43223%
20 239233%
69 41594%
90 55076%
53 106126%
47 31248%
99 39100%
101 44368%
16 54500%
11 18717%
9 14590%
31 33912%
8 35100%
20 93179%
77 42604%
109 58547%
75 91197%
73 31785%
108 41025%
Habitaciones
MES Reservadas JW
Marriott
Jan-15 163
Feb-15 171
Mar-15 162
Apr-15 169
May-15 137
Jun-15 161
Jul-15 144
Aug-15 158
Sep-15 139
Oct-15 168
Nov-15 125
Dec-15 144
Jan-16 149
Feb-16 146
Mar-16 123
Apr-16 165
May-16 142
Jun-16 131
Jul-16 136
Aug-16 162
Sep-16 149
Oct-16 128
Nov-16 103
Dec-16 96
Jan-17 102
Feb-17 99
Mar-17 100
Apr-17 106
May-17 98
Jun-17 89
Jul-17 99
Aug-17 104
Sep-17 93
Oct-17 61
Nov-17 64
Dec-17 51
Jan-18 69
Feb-18 56
Mar-18 65
Apr-18 73
May-18 65
Jun-18 66
Jul-18 68
Aug-18 54
Sep-18 63
Oct-18 64
Camisa Arturo
MES
Calle Ref. X1.2
Jan-15 758
Feb-15 102
Mar-15 728
Apr-15 178
May-15 27
Jun-15 807
Jul-15 897
Aug-15 465
Sep-15 851
Oct-15 17
Nov-15 192
Dec-15 147
Jan-16 759
Feb-16 103
Mar-16 61
Apr-16 533
May-16 342
Jun-16 211
Jul-16 843
Aug-16 176
Sep-16 818
Oct-16 526
Nov-16 496
Dec-16 321
Jan-17 278
Feb-17 102
Mar-17 503
Apr-17 408
May-17 672
Jun-17 699
Jul-17 152
Aug-17 649
Sep-17 73
Oct-17 385
Nov-17 830
Dec-17 48
Jan-18 438
Feb-18 104
Mar-18 542
Apr-18 93
May-18 989
Jun-18 646
Jul-18 948
Aug-18 734
Sep-18 363
Oct-18 362
