Generate words through the use of Markov chains

In general, computer programs are believed to be bad at being creative and doing tasks which require “a human mind”. Dealing with the meaning of text, words and sentences is one of these tasks. That’s not always the case. For instance sentiment analysis is a branch of Machine Learning where computer programs try to convey the overall feeling coming from tons of articles.

But here we are talking a lot more simpler: by using Markov chains and some statistics, I developed a simple computer program which generates words. The model works as follow:
As a first step, the program is fed with a long text in the selected language. The longer the text, the better. Next, the program analyses each word and gets the probability distributions for the following:
-Length of the word
-First character (or letter)
-Character (or letter) next to a given one
-Last character (or letter)

Then, once gathered all this data, the following function is run in order to generate words:

Each part is then glued together and returned by the function.

On average, 10% of generated words are English (or French, German or Italian) real words or prepositions or some kind of real sequence of characters.

The most interesting aspect, in my opinion, is the fact that by shifting the language of the text fed into the program, one can clearly see how the sequences of characters change dramatically, for instance, by feeding English, the program will be more likely to write “th” in words, by using German words will often contain “ge” and by using Italian words will often end by a vowel.

Here is the code. Note that in order to speed up the word checking process, I had to use the NLTK package which is availably only in Python 2. To avoid the use of Python 2 you could check each word using urllib and an online dictionary by parsing the web page but this way is tediously slow. It would take about 15 minutes to check 1000 words. By using NLTK you can speed up the checking process.

Hope this was interesting.

Markets, stocks simulations and Markov chains

This article is some sort of continuation from this one.

Our previous model for stock simulations did not take in account the following idea:
when a stock (or the market) is going up, then it should be (intuitively) at least, more likely that it will continue to go up. Or at the very least, as it is the case for a football game, it does not feel right to believe that the probability of either of the two possible outcomes is exactly 50%.

The idea behind Markov chains is really versatile, we can apply it also to the markets.
With a “bit” of study (I’m being sarcastic here), you can come up with something pretty complicated like this, however, the model I’m going to show here is much more naive and easier.

Suppose a Markov chain with two states, market up and market down. Once you found the probabilities of each state, you can easily simulate a random walk (based on a Markov chain of course).

Here is the code for this model:

The graphs below represent respectively, 2, 200 and 500 random paths.

2 random walks

200 random walks

500 random walks

Hope this was interesting.

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Disclaimer
This article is for educational purpose only. The numbers are invented. The author is not responsible for any consequence or loss due to inappropriate use. It may contain mistakes and errors. You should never use this article for purposes different from the educational one.

Weather forecast through Markov chains and Python

A Markov chain is a mathematical system that undergoes transitions from one state to another on a state space. It is essentially a kind of random process without any memory. This last statement, emphasizes the idea behind this process: “The future is independent from the past given the present”. In short, we could say that, the next step of our random process depends only on the very last step occurred. (Note that we are operating in discrete time in this case).

Let’s say that we would like to build a statistical model to forecast the weather. In this case, our state space, for the sake of simplicity, will contain only 2 states: bad weather (cloudy) and good weather (sunny). Let’s suppose that we have made some calculations and found out that tomorrow’s weather somehow relies on today’s weather, according  to the matrix below. Note that P(A|B) is the probability of A given B.

 

Therefore, if today’s weather is sunny, there is a P(Su|Su) chance that tomorrow will also be sunny, and a P(C|Su) chance that it will be Cloudy. Note that the two probabilities must add to 1.

Let’s code this system in Python:

Obviously the real weather forecast models are much more complicated than this one, however Markov chains are used in a very large variety of areas and weather forecast is one on them. Other real world applications include:
-Machine learning (in general)
-Speech recognition and completion
-Algorithmic music composition
-Stock market and Economics and Finance in general

For more information on Markov chains, check out the Wikipedia page.

If you are interested in Markov chains, I suggest you to check these two video series on YouTube which are (in my opinion) good explanations of the subject.
-Brandon Foltz’s Finite Math playlist, very clear explanation with real world examples and the math used is fairly simple. You just need to know a bit of matrices, operations on matrices and probability (but if you are here I guess you have no problems on this)
-Mathematicalmonk’s playlist on Machine Learning, where a more technical (formal) explanation is given in the videos on Markov chains, starting from here.

Hope this was interesting and useful.
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