Monthly Archives: July 2021

The International Situation July, 2023: Middle East Part II

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Even before the first Iranian missile detonated on the edge of space off the southeast coast of the United States on September 12, 2022, the Israeli prime minister was convinced his nation was next. As sirens blared and a nationwide mobilization was ordered, the Israeli Air Force began laying the groundwork for airstrikes against targets in Iran. Meanwhile, in the deep underground caves located in Zacharia, Israel’s Jericho III missile force was prepared for action.

As we’re all aware now, Israel did not undertake military action against Iran on 12 September or afterwards. The US government managed to dissuade Israel from pre-empting American retaliation or conducting its own offensive against Iran. Had the United States hesitated in the hours following the North Korean and Iranian missile strike on its homeland though, the end result might’ve been quite different.

Israel had other problems to contend with anyhow. Once it became apparent what was taking place in the US, Gaza and the West Bank exploded. Palestinians, and their Hezbollah handlers wasted no time in declaring their own Jihad against Israel. Waves of missiles were launched from Gaza and southern Lebanon, most being destroyed by the Iron Dome defense system. Riots broke out in Jerusalem and turned bloody almost immediately. Israel’s response was immediate. Air strikes against suspected missile sites were launched at once and continued for thirty-six hours straight. Artillery joined the effort shortly thereafter. Within a week, Israel had launched a pair of ground offensives, one into Gaza and the other targeting southern Lebanon. The purpose of the Gaza invasion was to neutralize Hamas and militant Palestinian groups, as well as the Palestinian government. It required thirty days of bloody fighting and high casualties on both sides, but Israel was successful and its troops have been occupying Gaza ever since. The incursion north into Lebanon was intended to establish a security zone to prevent militants from staging attacks from there. However, Israel did not anticipate Lebanon’s collapse within two  weeks of the Iranian attack. The fate of the government in Beirut, as well as Hezbollah, had been sealed when Iran ceased to exist. Israel wound up occupying all of Lebanon by November as well.

At the present time, Israel is the strongest country in the Middle East and there’s no nation willing to challenge this truth. Her Arab neighbors Jordan and Egypt have continued their policies of co-existence and cooperation with Tel Aviv. The same is true for Saudi Arabia, which has welcomed Israeli efforts to help bring stability to the region. In fact, the Saudi royal family has invited the Israeli prime minister to a conference in Riyadh scheduled for August, 2023. The topic will be formulating a plan to deal with Syria, which has been without a government since December, 2022 and is in danger of becoming a new haven for jihadists and the remnants of Iranian proxy groups now without homes or financial benefactors.

The International Situation July, 2023: Middle East Part I

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By July, 2023 the Middle East was still struggling to regain its footing. The US retaliatory strikes against Iran had destroyed that nation almost entirely. In the aftermath, a major humanitarian crisis had arisen from the ashes of the former Islamic Republic of Iran. Millions of Iranians, many wounded or suffering from radiation poisoning made off for the nearest border area in late September, 2022. Neighboring nations did their best to provide aid, but even with a limited amount of assistance from outside the region, a losing battle was being waged. Put simply, the world wanted nothing to do with Iran or its citizens after September 12, 2022.

The same held true for most of its neighbors, who were never aligned with Tehran and its policies. In fact, the only reason nations like Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf States were actively assisting Iran’s citizens now was to keep those people from pouring out of what was once Iran and into their lands. Strict No-Entry policies remained in effect into July, 2023. Land frontiers were zealously protected. At sea, refugees intercepted trying to reach the shores of Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were ordered to turn back for Iran. Those who chose to no obey were killed in their boats.

For Afghanistan and Pakistan, Iran’s primary eastern neighbors, the refugee problem was secondary to fallout from the fifty-plus nuclear detonations which occurred across Iran. Despite the fact that the majority of the US warheads were clean and fused for air-bursts, there was still radiation to deal with. Kabul had other problems to concern itself with in the weeks following the attack. A new alliance of factions had risen to challenge the rule of the Taliban and plunged the country into a new civil war which had not yet concluded. Pakistan, on the other hand, demanded compensation and aid from the rest of the world, namely from the United States. The US refused, of course and the United Nations was so overextended it could offer little.

The nations of the Arabian Peninsula had come together in the weeks after the attack. A new alliance formed, naturally led by Saudi Arabia. Surprisingly, Yemen’s new government was petitioning to join the new organization. In the weeks after Iran was unceremoniously destroyed, the civil war there ended and the Houthi movement disbanded. As it stood now, Yemen had been granted observer status only, however, there were growing signs it would be inducted into the Arabian Peninsula Economic and Defense group of nations by the end of the year. Officially, APED as it was formally known, was still in its formative stages but the organization’s main purpose was to bring the Arab world into the new alignment of nations as an organized, cohesive body. In other words, an Arab supranational body that the world could take seriously and not view as a threat.

Note: Middle East is running longer than expected. Part II tomorrow, Asia on Sunday and the Wertz catch up Monday. Sorry for the schedule change.

The International Situation July, 2023: Europe

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In July, 2023 the conflict in Ukraine had tapered out, with Ukraine, its NATO allies and Russia all reluctant to continue fighting after six weeks of inconclusive clashes from Donetsk to Kiev. What came next was not yet determined. Ukraine had essentially been cut in half with NATO forces controlling the western area and Russia the eastern. The Ukrainian government was understandably not satisfied with this being permanent. It was taking a based on a status quo ante bellum approach to the negotiations. Understandably, Moscow’s interest in a final resolution along those lines was minimal. By this time the war clouds were shifting to the northwest in the direction of the Baltic States. This area appeared to be in the crosshairs of Russia presently as its military focus was being laid on the three independent states that had at one time been Soviet Socialist Republics. Now they were members of NATO.

It remained unclear when, or for that matter if, a Russian offensive would begin. Like all European nations, Russia was suffering from a vast array of shortages and its military was not immune. An attack would not commence until Russian forces were completely prepared and from all indications, this would not be anytime soon. NATO was contending with similar issues, however the greatest problem facing it at the moment was political. A growing number of NATO member-states were calling for Ukraine and the Baltics to be left to the wolves. These areas were too far forward to defend effectively, as the conflict in Ukraine had shown. Military strength was a finite commodity in these days of a new order attempting to be shaped. Many Europeans believed it was wise to husband that military power rather than squander it wastefully.

Refugees were also a continuing problem for Europe. The European Union had taken the lead on dealing with this. Since September, Europe’s borders had effectively been closed to outsiders. With the level of uncertainty, growing instability and declining economic conditions in Europe and around the world, a new wave of immigrants and refugees from North Africa and the Middle East simply could not be accommodated. The first waves of people attempting to reach Southern Europe by boat were halted and returned to the areas of the North African coast where they had embarked from. In eastern Turkey, the border was fortified to prevent Iranian refugees from entering the EU. Many of these men, women and children were suffering from varying degrees of radiation sickness from one of the forty-plus nuclear detonations that took place in Iran back in September. The UN established camps on the Iraqi side of the border to care for these people while negotiating with the European Union to admit at least a small number of Iranian refugees. The negotiations never went anywhere. As of 30 July, 2023 only a dwindling number of refugees remained at the Turkish border, unable to move farther west. The rest of the continent remained locked down with only a handful of Americans and Canadians being admitted periodically.

The UN had selected Geneva as the site for its temporary headquarters in late September, 2022. By the following July it appeared the move was going to be permanent. Designs for a new UN headquarters had been approved in the spring and construction was scheduled to commence sometime before the end of the year.

Author’s Note: Middle East and Asia tomorrow, followed by an update on Dan Wertz this weekend. On Monday, the journal entries resume.

The International Situation July 2023: North America

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Although the United States had absorbed the lion’s share of EMP-related damage, it was not the only nation on the continent dealing with relief and recovery related to the September attacks. Canada had also sustained damage, although nowhere near the extent of America’s. But for a nation with a fraction of the population and resources of her southern neighbor, the amount of damage was still nothing short of calamitous. EMP had effectively destroyed the power-grids in the eastern half of the nation from the Maritimes to Quebec and into the densely populated regions in eastern Ontario. Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa, three of the nation’s largest and most important cities had been affected by the September attacks and the subsequent aftermath. By July, 2023 all of them remained dark, along with most of Eastern Canada. Relief efforts continued, bolstered by international aid, yet the nation was developing a major security problem in the east centered on the arrival of foreign troops and material ostensibly to provide security for aid shipments. The Canadian government was keenly aware of what their real mission was, yet its hands were tied. Pressure from a handful of foreign governments, as well as the United Nations, made it clear that opposition to this move would result in most international relief aid being cut permanently. At the same time, the US government was pushing Canada to secure its side of the US-Canadian border more effectively. It was only a matter of time before the Canadian government would be forced to fully commit to the wishes of one side or the other.

Mexico’s biggest problem did not have to do with EMP damage. In that regard, Mexico had escaped the September attacks unscathed. But since then, with the US border closed and opportunities there becoming quite limited, tens of thousands of Mexicans were remaining home. Unfortunately, there was nowhere near enough employment opportunities for even a fraction of them. Pressure was building up and the Mexican government recognized it. As a result, the government was pushing nationalism as a counter. Sympathetic speeches by the Mexican president and other high-level politicians reminded Mexican citizens of what once belonged to them north of the border. Specifically, the southwestern US states of Arizona, New Mexico, parts of Nevada and even California. The populace was taking notice of the changing attitude of its government concerning the status of these lost territories. In early July, 2023 street rallies involving hundreds began occurring in a number of Mexican towns and cities. By the end of the month the number of participants had ballooned into the thousands, and the leaders of the burgeoning movement were actively calling for Mexico to retake what was once hers.

China was also moving to gain a larger stake in Mexico and the Central American nations by July. Long-term aid proposals were including more infrastructure components, interest-free loans and a robust Chinese military presence to provide a security force in the event of instability. These generous plans were not attracting the amount of attention that Beijing had anticipated. Even Mexico with its rising Anti-American rhetoric turned down a Chinese deal. A wait-and-see attitude remained in effect in the capitals of Mexico, and Central American countries. The United States was decidedly weakened, but there was no guarantee the superpower’s current state was permanent. And even if it was, it still made perfect geopolitical sense to maintain a friendly relationship with the most powerful nation-state in the neighborhood.

A Quick Note- 27 July, 2021

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Evening, everyone.

My apologies for not posting in the past couple of days. Real life got in the way a bit and I simply couldn’t make the time to get the posts out when I wanted. Which is kind of a weak excuse considering that this entire summer has been dedicated to writing so far. But for a few days I had to prioritize my projects. I’m going to start back up tomorrow and am confident we’ll be back on track by Friday at the latest. Hope you’re all doing well. –Mike

The Talk Part I

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Harlow, England

20 March, 2028

Sharon Wallace smiled in spite of herself. The trays on the counter contained a cornucopia of food that harkened to a better time. The smells emanating from them stirred even deeper memories. The steaks were cooked just right. Rare but not exceptionally so. Pressing a fork into the meat brought back just a hint of blood. The baked potatoes were steaming in tinfoil. The corn was fresh and sweet, like the late summer Jersey corn of her childhood. How many weekends had been spent with corn, steaks and potatoes on the grill? Tonight’s dinner was a slice of the past. A little piece of home.

“Mom?” The inquiry came from the family room. Sharon stopped but did not look up. She recognized the voice—getting deeper. Her son Scott, or as she still called him, Scotty. He was hungry, she already knew.

“A few more minutes,” she called back.

“K. Smells good.”

That it did. Her son, like his father, knew good food and enjoyed a good piece of meat. Meat was good, but here in England not as easy to find. The Brits overcooked their beef, to the point where it was almost leathery. Their daughter Amanda, on the other hand, had taken to British fare. In fact, she was adopting to British life entirely. Right down to the slight accent that was forming. Well, having spent the last five years in England was going to do that. The kids were young when the Wallace family came over. Their memories of home were limited and fading more with each passing day. Well, Amanda’s were. Scott was another story entirely. He remembered the land of his birth intimately.

The sound of the garage door opening jogged her thoughts back to the present. Brad was home and his timing was perfect. She was glad. It was Wednesday and sometimes this was Brad’s late day at the office. Having him here early was a pleasant surprise.

“Kids, your father is home. Amanda, set the table.”

Dutifully, Amanda sauntered down the steps and into the kitchen. She pulled the dishes from the cabinets and began setting the table in the dining room. Scott came in behind her, caught a glance from his mother and reluctantly pitched in.

Their father walked in a minute later. “Hello!” He crowed, receiving positive responses from the kids.

“In here,” Sharon called to him and carried the trays over to the table. Her husband walked into the dining room smiling broadly. He hugged Amanda first, receiving a squeal in return. Scott was next, a playful tap on the shoulder. Finally, he approached Sharon, kissed her on the lips and then hugged her tight. “Hiya, dear!”

“Hiya yourself. Dinner is ready.”

Brad inhaled deeply. “Smells fantastic. You know how to cook beef. The Brits try, but they can’t cook beef worth a damn-darn!” He winced. Keeping the language clean around the kids was something they both took seriously.

Dinner at the Wallace house was always an informal affair except for holidays. Tonight was no exception.  The table was set and everybody dug in.

“So how was work today?” Sharon asked her husband as he lugged the biggest steak onto his plate.

“Not bad. In processing day for a group of guests. Families mostly. Helping to acclimate them.”

“Anybody we know?”

“No, but Jeff Carroll’s brother is supposed to be coming across next month. I saw his name on the list. He and his family have been accepted. Job waiting for him with Lloyds.”

“That’s good to hear. Jeff will be thrilled. Have you told him?”

 Brad shook his head. “It’s not official yet. When it is, I’ll let him know.” He bit into his steak and savored it. “Wow. This really is good.”

“Prime grade, USDA choice,” Sharon chuckled, earning a grin in return.

“Mad cow free too, I hope,” her husband commented under his breath.

Amanda caught it though and her head shot up. “What’s mad cow?”

“Long time ago, honey,” Brad assured her. “This meat is fine.”

“So cows went crazy?” Scott asked eagerly.

“Right. They’d start eating each other at night in the field. Farmer would come out in the morning and find nothing but bones.”

“Gross.” Amanda made a face.

“Cool!” Scott grinned. Brad hid a smile and continued eating.

Sharon gave her husband a disapproving look and changed the subject. “How was school?”

“Great.” Scott fielded it first. “Looks like we’re going to have a baseball team for the spring.”
“Good.” Brad smiled. Baseball was another thing the Brits were new to. As with beef, they were trying and in about eighty years might get the hang of it. A number of other schools in the area were picking the sport up and forming teams. The influx of American students over the years was responsible for this. Cricket wasn’t an appropriate substitute for red-blooded American boys. “What about you, Amanda?”

“ School is okay. I’m starting to like my English teacher better than my math teacher though. Mrs.Laird is British and knows a lot about classical literature. She said if my grades stay high I’m smart enough to get into Oxford one day.” Her brother snorted at that. “Shut up!” she snapped and gave him a look which made him wither.

“How come you don’t like your math teacher now?” Sharon asked.

“Ms. Norman is one of us. An American,” Amanda said sourly. “She always tells us that even though we’re living in England we’re still Americans. And one day we are going to go home to help our country get strong again.”

Sharon and Brad exchanged a brief glance. “And what do you think about that?”

Their daughter shrugged her shoulders indifferently. “I like England. This is my home. I don’t even remember anything about the other place.”

“But you’re not British,” Scott pointed out and made a twisted face. “America is our home. We’re just like guests here.”

“He’s right, honey.” Her father said gently. “England is a wonderful place and the people are very kind to us. But this isn’t our home.”

It was becoming evident that the deep divide Brad and Sharon had been anticipating with Amanda would arrive sooner than expected. She would be eleven in three months. Puberty and that time in a kid’s life when everything became convoluted was probably going to motivate her to demand some uncomfortable answers. Right now, all she knew, understood really, was that something terrible had happened in the place where she used to live with her family. As time went on, the memories of that past became more distant.

“Spend more time hanging around with American kids,” Scott spat. “You don’t even have one. All of your friends are tea drinkers.”

Brad quickly held back a snort. He was about to admonish his fourteen year old son, but it was too late to make a difference. Amanda had already dissolved into a mass of tears and sobs. Before either of her parents could react, she rose from the table and scampered away to her room.

“Dammit, Scotty!” Brad growled. His son looked at him innocently.

“What? What did I do now?”

Sharon stood up. “I’ll handle this. You two stay down here and keep eating.” And just like that, it was decided. Motherly prerogative.

She waited for ten minutes before knocking on her daughter’s door. Amanda was sprawled out on her bed when Sharon walked in. That told her more than she needed to know. The girl was upset, and when she was really upset like now, Amanda laid out across her bed and ignored every possible distraction, electronic and otherwise. Mom considered her next move carefully. She took her daughters desk chair, rolled it up beside the bed and sat down. Next she placed her hand on Amanda’s back and rubbed softly.

“How are you holding up, honey?”

Amanda sniffed away a couple of tears. “Scott is a jerk!” she declared.

“He can be at times,” her mother agreed. “That’s what boys are like at his age. Better get used to it,” she smiled.

“Scott is just mean. He doesn’t like me because he thinks I hate America. I don’t even remember it. He does. And this is where we live now. England. Not America.”

“We do live here now, honey,” Sharon admitted. “But we are not British. We’re Americans and we always will be.”

“Not me. When I turn eighteen I am going to apply for citizenship here.”

Sharon ignored that comment. “You think Scott believes that you hate America. Do you?”

“I can’t believe you’d ask me that,” Amanda turned to her mother with a mixture of hurt and outrage spreading across her face. “You’re siding with Scott.”

“Honey, I’m only trying to find out how you feel.”

“I don’t hate America. I just don’t know anything about it except for what people say. How great it was. If it’s such a great place then why don’t we live there anymore?”

“Because your father’s job is here now and he works for the government. The US government, not England’s.”

Amanda saw through that reply at once. “That’s not an answer.”

“Something bad happened back home and your father and I decided it would be better for us to raise you two here. So we did.”

“I’m glad. I like it here. My friends and everything. I don’t like baseball and Scott is a jerk.”

Sharon smiled at that. “He is sometimes. Are you ok up here? Shall I bring you your dinner?”

“No. I didn’t like it very much. Beef isn’t very good. I’m sorry, Mom.”

“It’s okay.” Sharon rose from the chair. “I’ll look in on you later. I love you, honey.”

“I love you too.”

Sharon left, mulling the conversation over in her head again over and over. She readjusted her earlier thought. The time was not coming. The time was now.

The night settled down after that. Sharon went back downstairs to finish eating and clean up. Brad and Scott went into their normal post-dinner routines, kidding each other and joking around a bit before both retired to their respective areas. Scott to his room to finish homework and Brad to the home office. She assumed that Brad had a little talk with his son when she was upstairs with Amanda.  A little while later, Amanda came down and joined Sharon in the living room. Together they watched television. Scott came in a little while later. To their mother’s satisfaction, the siblings interacted the way they normally did, the earlier dinner encounter seemingly forgotten. Brad joined them shortly afterward and for an hour they enjoyed some quality family time until 9:45 when everyone went upstairs to get ready for bed.

“I think it’s time,” Sharon announced to Brad when they were in bed and perusing on their respective tablets. Now was the perfect time to discuss this, she’d decided. The kids’ rooms were on the other side of the house. Far enough away that they couldn’t possibly hear their parent’s conversation.

“Time for what?” Brad asked. He turned his head to look at his wife. When he saw her expression, he understood what she was talking about. “Oh, that.”

“After tonight, I don’t think we can’t wait any longer. Amanda is growing up too fast.”

“Just like her mother did,” Brad smiled. Sharon ignored it and continued.

“She’s at that age now. Everything is confusing  and I don’t want her to forget where she comes from or who she is.”

“Sharon, she doesn’t remember her life on the other side of the pond. Amanda was too young. Scotty too, for that matter. But he’s coping at least.”

“Scotty doesn’t really get what happened either. Don’t you think it would be fair for him to hear it?”

Brad was silent for a short time. “You could be right. But dammit, I do not want our kids to feel like they’re refugees or something.”

“Neither do I. And if we don’t do something now, sooner or later some British kid is going to start calling them that. You know how teens are. That’s why I want to do it now.”

“What Amanda was saying tonight hurt. She’s just a child, I know. But she is becoming more British by the day. It’s only natural, I guess.”

“And Scott?”

“Scotty is like I was at his age. An all-American kid. His friends are all the same.”

“Because they’re American. They play baseball and football. They roughhouse. British boys do the similar things but it’s different. Amanda, on the other hand is two steps away from singing “God Save The King” every morning.”

Brad was quiet for a long minute, staring at the ceiling. “Last week she asked me why her friends live across town and Scotty’s friends live so close,” Brad admitted.

“That is what I’m talking about, Brad. Differences, even little ones, are going to begin counting for a lot now,” Sharon warned. “You know that better than I do.”

“It’s just a matter of time,” Brad started and then stopped. He looked at his wife and nodded his head. “Okay, I’m sold. When and where?”

“Let’s do it Saturday night. Scotty has baseball during the day and Amanda is spending Sunday with her friends in Brexton.”

            Brad agreed. “Three days from now. That will work.” Then he wrapped his arms around his wife and held her tight. “It is time to have the talk.”

Author’s Note: This entry will be a bit different. It’s in short story form and takes a brief look at an American family now living in England 5+ years after the September 2022 attack. The children are growing older and the parents are wondering if it’s time to explain to them just what happened to the nation of their birth. I’ll post Part II next weekend because I am juggling a lot of writing projects at the moment. As for this blog, tomorrow we’ll take a look at the international scene in July, 2023 and then begin working back towards a continuation of journal entries. Hope everyone is well. — Mike

A Glimpse At America In July, 2023 Part II

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External challenges to the United States and her position in the world were slow in coming. In the aftermath of the vengeful retaliation against North Korea and Iran, America’s remaining enemies and opponents treaded lightly for months. There was a general reluctance to make a geopolitical move that could be viewed by the US government as aggressive, or at the very least unfriendly. By February of 2023, the extent of the crisis that the United States was wrestling with became clear to the world. As is generally the rule, rival powers were, at this time, moving forward with their own geopolitical and military plans for a world without the United States acting as a stabilizing factor or deterrent to the ambitions of a rising power. In capitals such as Beijing and Moscow it was recognized that the time for decisive moves on the global chessboard was approaching.

By July, Chinese and Russian efforts to affect the destabilization of the US were underway inside of America. Arms shipments were moving across the porous US-Canadian border increasingly more often and arriving in the hands of anti-government militias and similar groups, as well as illegitimate state governments fighting for recognition. US intelligence agencies had correctly identified this trend and the McAlister administration began taking steps in late May to rectify the problem on the northern border. A respectable number of active duty US Army brigades were  redeployed to guard and cover the US-Canadian border in the northern New England states and New York State. These areas were especially vulnerable given the inability of the Canadian armed forces and Royal Canadian Mounted Police to patrol them. Eastern Canada had absorbed considerable EMP damage, and there were foreign actors embedded there who were determined to use it to their advantage.

The US Air Force was flying regular combat air patrols in the vicinity of the Canadian border, enforcing US air sovereignty. Aircraft crossing the border southbound without the express authorization of US authorities were intercepted and escorted back to Canada. A handful of engagements had taken place, climaxing in the multiple-aircraft engagement over upstate NY between US fighters and Eastern European or Russian MiGs and transport aircraft. Since the encounter, the airspace over the border had gone quiet, yet remained tense.

There were problems on America’s southern border as well. In the days and weeks after the attack, the border with Mexico was sealed tight. The flow of illegal aliens northward had all but dried up by mid-October. In July, drug cartels were beginning to conduct large, organized forays into US territory, ransacking and pillaging a number of border towns. These raids were dangerous enough, but they were secondary to a growing irredentist tone of the Mexican government. Mexico had offered the US government the use of its armed forces to help bring security to areas of the southwest. This offer was politely turned down and as a result, Mexican rhetoric was becoming sharp and pointed. The government went to extremes to remind its population that Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California once belonged to Mexico.

A Glimpse At America In July, 2023 Part I

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After ten months of post-attack relief operations, the future of the nation continued to hang in the balance. A small group of influential and vocal figures were calling for the relief efforts to be transformed into a national recovery operation of sorts. In their view, the east coast and interior sections severely affected by EMP would never recover from the damage inflicted. The time had come to accept this bitter truth and to start transferring what salvageable assets there were into the Midwest and West. This was by no means the majority opinion amongst the population. However, the view was provoking intense discussions about what the United States might look like a few years down the road. But there were other more critical problems demanding the nation’s attention. The growing instability in the east, along with an assortment of other matters were occupying the attention of the government, and most Americans.

The present state of the US economy ranked high on the master list of anxieties. In September, 2022 the federal government undertook a number of emergency measures to stave off an economic collapse. They kept the economy through the next ten months, but just barely. Speculation was growing that it will only be a matter of time before the US economy collapses entirely. Especially given the trajectory of the global economy in July, 2023.

Over 70% of American citizens in the central and western regions of the US were involved in relief operations in one form or another. Every National Guard and Reserve unit in the US had been federalized. The ranks of FEMA and other government agencies had swelled with a surge of new workers needed to fulfil the growing operations tempo. This also held true for private relief organizations and other NGOs involved in relief. The overwhelming majority of these new workers had left jobs in the private sector. Those job losses were keeping unemployment numbers unacceptably high, even though the situation in the east prevented accurate unemployment numbers from being collected.

American society was also experiencing its own unique problems that did nothing to help the condition of the national economy. Over the past ten months a large number of celebrities and athletes left the US to start new lives abroad. Hollywood had all but collapsed, sending the entertainment industry into freefall. Studios started to close down starting in November, or shifting their operations overseas. the media preoccupied with real world events and no movies being made, it was not long before actors and actresses began setting off for greener pastures overseas. The loss of these people was of no major consequence, but the closure of iconic movie studios served as another blow upon the already faltering economy.

The same held true for the athletic world. Major League Baseball, the NFL, NBA and NHL had all ceased operations in September. The NCAA followed suit days later. Seasons were ended prematurely or cancelled entirely and the future was dim. Aside from occasional high profile charity games, the professional sports world was on hold in North America.  This left scores of professional athletes unemployed and with no prospects on the horizon. By nature, pro athletes in America are entitled, selfish people. The problems of the country were not their problems, so to speak. So many of them packed up and departed, searching for roster spots in overseas leagues and markets.

The average American hardly noticed the exodus of entertainers and athletes. There were more pressing problems to deal with. Supply chains had broken down almost completely. While families in Chicago or Phoenix had power, other accoutrements of modern life were now in short supply and in some cases being strictly rationed. Life in these locations was nowhere near as dangerous, or difficult as it was in places like Florida or New England. But it wasn’t easy by any stretch of the imagination either. As the days went by and the economy constricted tighter, it was becoming clear that the United States as a whole would never be the same again.

Snapshots of Disaster: The New York City Exodus, Sept-Oct 2022 Part II

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The mass of humanity that poured from the five boroughs in early Autumn of 2022 did not restrict itself to a single direction. The western avenue across North and Central New Jersey was the most popular route, but there were also streams of people moving in other directions too. In many instances the direction chosen depended on where a person lived. Whereas Manhattan and Brooklyn residents went overwhelmingly west, many in the Bronx and Queens headed north through Westchester County and beyond. A smaller contingent moved northeast into the Connecticut suburbs, paralleling I-95 and the Metro North/Amtrak rail line. Others from eastern Queens and Brooklyn struck out into Long Island. Residents from the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn trekked over the Verrazano Bridge and joined the waves of Staten Island residents headed into New Jersey. Only instead of continuing west, these groups turned south once over the Outerbridge and headed for Monmouth and Ocean Counties, an area of New Jersey that was home to many native Staten Islanders and Brooklynites.

Incidents like the ones that took place across New Jersey occurred but with far less frequency. Still, the exodus in other directions encountered similar problems. Towns populated by people ready to defend their homes and not allow a wave of New Yorkers to come in and wipe out what food, water and other resources remained. State and local authorities were deployed to provide what meager resources they could for the transients from New York. In nearly every case, the efforts were nowhere near enough. The people coming from NYC were not only bringing mouths to feed. They also brought disease.

By late September, conditions inside New York City were growing worse by the hour. The city government had collapsed entirely. Those NYPD officers and FDNY firefighters and paramedics still on the job were overwhelmed trying to keep the city afloat. As for sanitation, garbage had not been picked up since the morning of the attack. Monuments of bags and other assorted waste had piled up on practically every street corner. Lack of running water kept sinks, toilets and showers idle. This sent hygiene plummeting, a story not exclusive to the five boroughs by any means. However, the garbage situation and rampant poor hygiene combined to unleash cholera, dysentery, and a host of other diseases and conditions upon NYC residents. And when they left town, many New Yorkers unknowingly took the diseases with them on their treks. This situation absorbed the small amounts of medical supplies remaining in many suburbs. Hospitals still barely functioning in the Metropolitan area broke completely under the strain inflicted by thousands of sick New Yorkers appearing on their doorsteps.

By early October, the governors of Connecticut and New Jersey were screaming for help from the Federal government. They demanded that New York City be quarantined for a period of at least two weeks in order to allow time for state and federal agencies to prepare for the waves of sickness that were inevitably coming. President McAlister reluctantly gave his permission to seal off New York City for a period lasting no more than two weeks. Unfortunately, similar situations were popping up around other east coast cities such as Boston and Philadelphia. As the days went on, quarantines were established in these two cities, as well as Baltimore and the District of Columbia.

In hindsight, McAlister made the right decision. But for the short term, preventing people from leaving some of America’s largest cities led to a wave of disorder and violence that threatened to unravel national relief operations, which were still in their formative stages.

Snapshots of Disaster: The New York City Exodus, Sept-Oct 2022 Part I

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July, 2023 marked the tenth consecutive month of national and international relief operations in the eastern United States. Despite the enormous effort underway, progress had not been uniform in the affected regions of the US up to this point. While some areas and states were making consistent headway, others found themselves being restrained by a string of endless problems ranging from poor organization at the state and local levels to violence restricting the distribution of relief. Each state had its own set of circumstances and situations to contend with.

For example, the exodus of people from New York City in late September and early October of 2022 created swarms of refugees fanning out in every direction. After waiting two weeks for things to return to normal, tens of thousands of people grew desperate. The power grid was beyond repair, food was running out, and their cities were becoming more dangerous with each passing hour. Finally, they ran out of patience, took matters into their own hands and left town.

And so began the metamorphosis from citizens to locusts to refugees. The urban residents poured into the surrounding suburbs and groupthink occurred, whether by chance or design. The immediate priority of the urbanites was securing food and water, both of which were already running precariously low in the New Jersey suburbs. New York City residents descended on these towns like swarms of angry locusts and devoured everything in sight. In some areas, the suburbanites defended their ground tenaciously, forcing the urban mobs to move on in search of more vulnerable pray down the line. In other areas no organized resistance was put up by township authorities or residents for fear of provoking a violent response. Unfortunately, that was normally what happened anyway, despite intentions. Undefended towns ended up pillaged and burned to the ground. Thousands of residents were murdered, many falling in gruesome, organized massacres. Women of all ages were taken against their will in an orgy of rape and violent deviance that stretched from the Hudson River west into Warren County, New Jersey.

Bands of New Yorkers also broke away from the main groups and headed for towns and cities in other parts of the state where they had relatives or friends. Some made it safely, but the majority either perished on the journey or fell into the escalating violence then taking place in New Jersey’s urban centers like Newark, Paterson and East Orange. That violence is what would eventually bring active-duty US Army troops to New Jersey in early December.

By the third week of October, Pennsylvania and New Jersey National Guard units had established layered defenses on both sides of the Delaware River, keeping the bulk of the refugee streams at bay. Stragglers did slip through occasionally though. For the most part, however, the western surge out of New York City had run its course by Halloween. FEMA was on the ground in force by this time and large refugee camps were springing up virtually overnight in Warren and Hunterdon counties. It would be a bit longer before FEMA camps would be set up in Pennsylvania.

Author’s Note: I wanted this entry to be longer, but time got away from me today. I’ll put up a Part 2 tomorrow and then move forward. –Mike