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Cinzia Bianco

University of Exeter, Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, Department Member

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Cinzia Bianco is a Research Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, focusing on the Arabian Peninsula/Gulf and relations with Europe. She contributed to outlets such as the Middle East Institute, the Middle East Policy Council, and the Italian Review of Geopolitics "Limes". She is also an analyst with the US-based firm Gulf State Analytics. She holds a Master's Degree in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies at King's College London, and a PhD from the University of Exeter (UK). Her PhD research focused on the evolution of Gulf security after the 2011 Arab uprisings.

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Iacopo Leonardi

University of Siena / Università di Siena

Mehmet Rakipoğlu

Raffaella A. Del Sarto

European University Institute

Juline Beaujouan

University of Edinburgh

Khalifa University

irene costantini

LUISS Guido Carli

Dr. Naser al-tamimi

Luciano Zaccara

Qatar University

Università Ca' Foscari Venezia

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Papers by Cinzia Bianco

Book: The Gulf monarchies after the Arab Spring: Threats and security

Manchester University Press, 2024

The post-Arab Spring collapse of decades-old regimes inaugurated a decade of re-shaping for the g... more The post-Arab Spring collapse of decades-old regimes inaugurated a decade of re-shaping for the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa region. A multipolar disorder ensued, solidified by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Amid general bewilderment, the small monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spent the decade between 2011 and 2022 trying to re-shape regional equilibria as protagonists. This book applies an original theoretical framework to unpack the threat perceptions and strategic calculus driving the behaviour of these new impactful regional players. Six chapters look at the six GCC monarchies individually. The author challenges commonly held narratives and goes beyond attention-grabbing headlines and thus provides reading keys to the past, present and future of policy-making in the Gulf monarchies, middle powers destined to play an oversized role in the new multipolar world.

More than a Game: Football and Soft Power in the Gulf

The International Spectator

Europe Vis-À-Vis the Changing Regional Order in the MENA

Orbis

Can Europe choreograph a Saudi-Iranian détente?

Geopolitical rivalries between the two shores of the Gulf are having a detrimental impact on the ... more Geopolitical rivalries between the two shores of the Gulf are having a detrimental impact on the stability of the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. European interests, such as the security of land and maritime routes, the rescue of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – a.k.a. the Iranian nuclear deal - and, crucially, the stabilisation of several regional crises – notably in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and the Horn of Africa – are severely affected. For this reason, working towards de-escalation in the Gulf has featured prominently of late in the foreign policy strategies of several European countries, including the European Union.The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, received a specific mandate for mediating a dialogue on Gulf security in 2020. The recent election of Joe Biden as president of the United States (US) provides a momentum to push this forward. Under Biden, the US intends to return to the JCPOA and promo...

Domestic Economic Plans and Visions and Opportunities for Cooperation with Europe

Contemporary Gulf Studies, 2021

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)... more Relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remain characterised by unexploited potential. Since the beginning of relations in the 1980s, EU-GCC engagement has been hurdled by the strait-laced approach which characterises the EU’s foreign relations and by the challenge to find common ground to tackle normative differences in crucial sectors, from trade regulations to human rights.

Gulf of Difference: How Europe Can Get the Gulf Monarchies to Pursue Peace with Iran

The Syrian File The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict The Syrian File The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict

Against the backdrop of Iraq's fragmentation and Egypt's derailed revolution, bold step... more Against the backdrop of Iraq's fragmentation and Egypt's derailed revolution, bold steps are clearly needed to prevent Syria from a likewise destiny, far worsened by the level of violence in the country and its role in the region's geopolitics. The degeneration of the crisis into sectarianism and social conflict is an increasingly tangible threat. Arguably, this degeneration is fuelled by the lack of a common vision for the future of Syria among those international players capable of influencing the conflict and within the internal opposition front. This paper analyses the anti-Assad front and outlines a post-war plan for national reconciliation framed in the context of the country's own past and experiences from other countries in the region.

The European Union in the Gulf

The United States and the Gulf, 2015

Gulf Security after 2011: A Threat Analysis

Middle East Policy, 2018

EU-GCC Cooperation in an Era of Socio-Economic Challenges

S its inception , the scope and the reasons behind the relation between the European Union (EU) –... more S its inception , the scope and the reasons behind the relation between the European Union (EU) – in 1989 the European Economic Community – and the Gulf Cooperation Council have been an ambiguous combination of economic and political factors. However, while economic and financial relations – and in particular the trade exchange flows – have continued to grow, this has had a limited impact on political dialogue, for a series of reasons that will be highlighted further on. Nowadays, the political distance between the two parties seems to be sharper, chiefly due to diverging views on how to manage the latest developments in the Middle East and in particular the recent turbulences in the Gulf region. While on the one hand the EU, broadly speaking, saw these turbulences as a chance for reforming the autocratic systems in the Gulf, the GCC regimes themselves perceived them as a threat to their own stability. The paper aims at putting forward suggestions on how the European Union could tur...

Policy Brief a Gulf Apart: How Europe Can Gain Influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council

Since 2011, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have become increasingly assertive play... more Since 2011, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have become increasingly assertive players across the Middle East and north Africa, particularly given the shifting US role in the region. European countries, long used to working under a US umbrella in the Gulf, have struggled to recalibrate their relationships with Gulf states and have been increasingly marginalised as relevant actors. Europeans urgently need to strengthen their geopolitical role in the Gulf, overcoming competition between one another to shape a more autonomous, strategic, and forceful role in defence of their key interests. Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour and help address key crises by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks based on core coalitions that address specific issues. least the Muslim Brotherhood and Shia resistance groups. Meanwhile, European countries-long used to working under a US umbrella in the region-have struggled to adapt to the emerging multipolar regional order, and have been slow to acknowledge the impact of the political networks and vast financial resources of states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For European governments that recognise the many ways in which the MENA region is key to their interests, the situation is unsustainable. Instability in the region poses a serious threat to Europe's economic, energy, and physical security. This is clear from the dispute between the United States and Iran, which-centring on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a deal that European governments helped negotiate-could precipitate further military escalation between two major powers. The spread of conflict through countries in which some GCC actors have game-changing capabilities, such as Libya and Yemen, could force Europe to confront a rising terrorist threat and even a new refugee crisis. The erosion of maritime security in the Gulf and off the coast of Yemen threatens to disrupt vital European trade networks. In all these areas, Europe must find new ways to address the destructive competition for influence between GCC states, their allies, and their rivals that stretches across the region. This paper analyses the implications for Europe of the shift in the balance of power towards Gulf Arab countries. Part one explains how GCC states gradually increased their influence, and why they see Europe as a weak strategic partner, in the MENA region. Part two proposes an independent, proactive strategy for Europe to protect its interests and increase its leverage over GCC states. The paper argues

The Syrian File The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict

Against the backdrop of Iraq’s fragmentation and Egypt’s derailed revolution, bold steps are clea... more Against the backdrop of Iraq’s fragmentation and Egypt’s derailed revolution, bold steps are clearly needed to prevent Syria from a likewise destiny, far worsened by the level of violence in the country and its role in the region’s geopolitics. The degeneration of the crisis into sectarianism and social conflict is an increasingly tangible threat. Arguably, this degeneration is fuelled by the lack of a common vision for the future of Syria among those international players capable of influencing the conflict and within the internal opposition front. This paper analyses the anti-Assad front and outlines a post-war plan for national reconciliation framed in the context of the country’s own past and experiences from other countries in the region.

The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

The International Spectator, 2020

ABSTRACT The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) fro... more ABSTRACT The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.

The intra-GCC crises: mapping GCC fragmentation after 2011

International Affairs, 2018

If shared security perceptions were the foundation of the GCC, 2011 might be analysed as the wate... more If shared security perceptions were the foundation of the GCC, 2011 might be analysed as the watershed year in which the GCC begun to fragment from within, as then the divergences between the countries' security perceptions became markedly exacerbated. It is commonly held that the threat posed to their security by Iranian intent and, at times, actions forced the countries of the GCC to be more aligned. However, the opposite seems to be the case, with both the 2014 and 2017 intra-GCC crises being manifestations of conflicting security perceptions formed across the GCC countries in and since 2011. Through an in-depth analysis of the events and of the subsequent reaction of the GCC governments in terms of discourse and foreign policy, we can distinguish between three different categories of conceptualization. While the governments of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE perceived domestic protests as an intermestic threat-triggered by the intersection between the international and domestic levels-the leaders of Oman and Kuwait conceptualised their protests as a manageable domestic insecurity, rather than full-fledged externally orchestrated events, arguably because they did not perceive a direct danger to their stability and legitimacy. Finally it can be argued that the government of Qatar did not see any real danger in the protests but instead view them as an opportunity to expand Doha's regional influence, arguably at Riyadh's expense. Unpacking what are the fundamental factors shaping such perceptions today would be the key to finding the appropriate framework for analysing GCC security in the future. In the summer of 2017, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), widely regarded as one of the most stable regional organizations of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, was hit by the gravest crisis since its formation. 1 The crisis, whose prelude was arguably in 2014 and that is still unfolding in the winter of 2017, threatened the fate of the six-countries-bloc and, in that, was markedly different from recurring skirmishes of the past. The other main difference between past and present, would be that the crises of 2017 and 2014 have happened in the context of a reshuffled region, shook in 2011 by a multitude of events that put into question the political, economic and security dynamics at the domestic and regional levels, contemporarily. This article rests on the premise that the events of 2011 represented a watershed moment in the history of the GCC itself and strives to highlight the direct connections between that moment and the crises of 2014 and 2017. It argues that the recent crises have shown unequivocally how threat perceptions are increasingly divergent at the level of the GCC governments and that, while some divergences have clearly existed for decades, they surfaced predominantly in the context of the popular uprisings of 2011. It further argues that such divergences are rooted in tangible domestic factors-such as deep cleavages in the national fabrics, or dysfunctional socioeconomic dynamics-as well as intangible factors-such as the country's collective memory, its ontological insecurity, and even leaders' individual perceptions. To do so, the article first explores the events of the 2017 crisis and their uniqueness, highlighting the positions of involved parties and those of regional and international key actors. What emerges as a distinctive feature in analysing such alignments is a growing fragmentation over the key issues that are addressed in the context of the crises. To analyse such 7 Mohammed Alyahya provides a helpful insight on Saudi Arabia's perspective in "The Rift with Qatar as Seen in Riyadh", a commentary published by The Atlantic on

Great Britain–Gulf relations

External Powers and the Gulf Monarchies

POWER PLAY: EUROPE'S CLIMATE DIPLOMACY IN THE GULF

European Council on Foreign Relations, 2021

Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental-albeit shrinking-source of... more Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental-albeit shrinking-source of revenues for decades. But, as shown by Saudi Arabia's net-zero pledge, they now see economic and political opportunities in embracing the green energy transition. If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal. Electricity interconnection and green hydrogen are the two most promising fields of clean energy cooperation between the sides. Still, Europeans should not cave to international pressure to lower their ambitions on carbon taxation, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, as this remains a powerful incentive for hydrocarbons producers to make the transition to cleaner energy.

POLICY BRIEF GULF OF DIFFERENCE: HOW EUROPE CAN GET THE GULF MONARCHIES TO PURSUE PEACE WITH IRAN

European Council on Foreign Relations, 2020

At the end of 2020, the Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests t... more At the end of 2020, the Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests through deterrence or through promoting a new diplomatic process. The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran.

The European interest lies in supporting a return to the Iranian nuclear deal and a regional dialogue between the Gulf monarchies and Iran, an approach that is more likely to promote lasting stability. Europeans can support this process in three steps: by strengthening their own regional security posture, confronting head-on the geopolitical tensions at the heart of regional rivalries and launching a confidence-building framework

This paper unpacks individual GCC perceptions and positions on Iran and advances policy ideas on how Europeans can navigate them geopolitically. Link: https://ecfr.eu/publication/gulf-of-difference-how-europe-can-get-the-gulf-monarchies-to-pursue-peace-with-iran/

The Saudi-UAE Alliance Faces its Yemeni Stress Test

by Gulf International Forum and Cinzia Bianco

Commentary, 2018

"KSA-Iran rivalry: an analysis of Saudi strategic calculus"

"Saudi Arabia, Iran and De-Escalation in the Gulf", 2020

An analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategic calculus and threat perceptions of Iran and a two-phases ... more

The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

The International Spectator, 2020

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wid... more The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.

Book: The Gulf monarchies after the Arab Spring: Threats and security

Manchester University Press, 2024

The post-Arab Spring collapse of decades-old regimes inaugurated a decade of re-shaping for the g... more The post-Arab Spring collapse of decades-old regimes inaugurated a decade of re-shaping for the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa region. A multipolar disorder ensued, solidified by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Amid general bewilderment, the small monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spent the decade between 2011 and 2022 trying to re-shape regional equilibria as protagonists. This book applies an original theoretical framework to unpack the threat perceptions and strategic calculus driving the behaviour of these new impactful regional players. Six chapters look at the six GCC monarchies individually. The author challenges commonly held narratives and goes beyond attention-grabbing headlines and thus provides reading keys to the past, present and future of policy-making in the Gulf monarchies, middle powers destined to play an oversized role in the new multipolar world.

More than a Game: Football and Soft Power in the Gulf

The International Spectator

Europe Vis-À-Vis the Changing Regional Order in the MENA

Orbis

Can Europe choreograph a Saudi-Iranian détente?

Geopolitical rivalries between the two shores of the Gulf are having a detrimental impact on the ... more Geopolitical rivalries between the two shores of the Gulf are having a detrimental impact on the stability of the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. European interests, such as the security of land and maritime routes, the rescue of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – a.k.a. the Iranian nuclear deal - and, crucially, the stabilisation of several regional crises – notably in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and the Horn of Africa – are severely affected. For this reason, working towards de-escalation in the Gulf has featured prominently of late in the foreign policy strategies of several European countries, including the European Union.The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, received a specific mandate for mediating a dialogue on Gulf security in 2020. The recent election of Joe Biden as president of the United States (US) provides a momentum to push this forward. Under Biden, the US intends to return to the JCPOA and promo...

Domestic Economic Plans and Visions and Opportunities for Cooperation with Europe

Contemporary Gulf Studies, 2021

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)... more Relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remain characterised by unexploited potential. Since the beginning of relations in the 1980s, EU-GCC engagement has been hurdled by the strait-laced approach which characterises the EU’s foreign relations and by the challenge to find common ground to tackle normative differences in crucial sectors, from trade regulations to human rights.

Gulf of Difference: How Europe Can Get the Gulf Monarchies to Pursue Peace with Iran

The Syrian File The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict The Syrian File The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict

Against the backdrop of Iraq's fragmentation and Egypt's derailed revolution, bold step... more Against the backdrop of Iraq's fragmentation and Egypt's derailed revolution, bold steps are clearly needed to prevent Syria from a likewise destiny, far worsened by the level of violence in the country and its role in the region's geopolitics. The degeneration of the crisis into sectarianism and social conflict is an increasingly tangible threat. Arguably, this degeneration is fuelled by the lack of a common vision for the future of Syria among those international players capable of influencing the conflict and within the internal opposition front. This paper analyses the anti-Assad front and outlines a post-war plan for national reconciliation framed in the context of the country's own past and experiences from other countries in the region.

The European Union in the Gulf

The United States and the Gulf, 2015

Gulf Security after 2011: A Threat Analysis

Middle East Policy, 2018

EU-GCC Cooperation in an Era of Socio-Economic Challenges

S its inception , the scope and the reasons behind the relation between the European Union (EU) –... more S its inception , the scope and the reasons behind the relation between the European Union (EU) – in 1989 the European Economic Community – and the Gulf Cooperation Council have been an ambiguous combination of economic and political factors. However, while economic and financial relations – and in particular the trade exchange flows – have continued to grow, this has had a limited impact on political dialogue, for a series of reasons that will be highlighted further on. Nowadays, the political distance between the two parties seems to be sharper, chiefly due to diverging views on how to manage the latest developments in the Middle East and in particular the recent turbulences in the Gulf region. While on the one hand the EU, broadly speaking, saw these turbulences as a chance for reforming the autocratic systems in the Gulf, the GCC regimes themselves perceived them as a threat to their own stability. The paper aims at putting forward suggestions on how the European Union could tur...

Policy Brief a Gulf Apart: How Europe Can Gain Influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council

Since 2011, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have become increasingly assertive play... more Since 2011, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have become increasingly assertive players across the Middle East and north Africa, particularly given the shifting US role in the region. European countries, long used to working under a US umbrella in the Gulf, have struggled to recalibrate their relationships with Gulf states and have been increasingly marginalised as relevant actors. Europeans urgently need to strengthen their geopolitical role in the Gulf, overcoming competition between one another to shape a more autonomous, strategic, and forceful role in defence of their key interests. Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour and help address key crises by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks based on core coalitions that address specific issues. least the Muslim Brotherhood and Shia resistance groups. Meanwhile, European countries-long used to working under a US umbrella in the region-have struggled to adapt to the emerging multipolar regional order, and have been slow to acknowledge the impact of the political networks and vast financial resources of states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For European governments that recognise the many ways in which the MENA region is key to their interests, the situation is unsustainable. Instability in the region poses a serious threat to Europe's economic, energy, and physical security. This is clear from the dispute between the United States and Iran, which-centring on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a deal that European governments helped negotiate-could precipitate further military escalation between two major powers. The spread of conflict through countries in which some GCC actors have game-changing capabilities, such as Libya and Yemen, could force Europe to confront a rising terrorist threat and even a new refugee crisis. The erosion of maritime security in the Gulf and off the coast of Yemen threatens to disrupt vital European trade networks. In all these areas, Europe must find new ways to address the destructive competition for influence between GCC states, their allies, and their rivals that stretches across the region. This paper analyses the implications for Europe of the shift in the balance of power towards Gulf Arab countries. Part one explains how GCC states gradually increased their influence, and why they see Europe as a weak strategic partner, in the MENA region. Part two proposes an independent, proactive strategy for Europe to protect its interests and increase its leverage over GCC states. The paper argues

The Syrian File The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict

Against the backdrop of Iraq’s fragmentation and Egypt’s derailed revolution, bold steps are clea... more Against the backdrop of Iraq’s fragmentation and Egypt’s derailed revolution, bold steps are clearly needed to prevent Syria from a likewise destiny, far worsened by the level of violence in the country and its role in the region’s geopolitics. The degeneration of the crisis into sectarianism and social conflict is an increasingly tangible threat. Arguably, this degeneration is fuelled by the lack of a common vision for the future of Syria among those international players capable of influencing the conflict and within the internal opposition front. This paper analyses the anti-Assad front and outlines a post-war plan for national reconciliation framed in the context of the country’s own past and experiences from other countries in the region.

The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

The International Spectator, 2020

ABSTRACT The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) fro... more ABSTRACT The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.

The intra-GCC crises: mapping GCC fragmentation after 2011

International Affairs, 2018

If shared security perceptions were the foundation of the GCC, 2011 might be analysed as the wate... more If shared security perceptions were the foundation of the GCC, 2011 might be analysed as the watershed year in which the GCC begun to fragment from within, as then the divergences between the countries' security perceptions became markedly exacerbated. It is commonly held that the threat posed to their security by Iranian intent and, at times, actions forced the countries of the GCC to be more aligned. However, the opposite seems to be the case, with both the 2014 and 2017 intra-GCC crises being manifestations of conflicting security perceptions formed across the GCC countries in and since 2011. Through an in-depth analysis of the events and of the subsequent reaction of the GCC governments in terms of discourse and foreign policy, we can distinguish between three different categories of conceptualization. While the governments of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE perceived domestic protests as an intermestic threat-triggered by the intersection between the international and domestic levels-the leaders of Oman and Kuwait conceptualised their protests as a manageable domestic insecurity, rather than full-fledged externally orchestrated events, arguably because they did not perceive a direct danger to their stability and legitimacy. Finally it can be argued that the government of Qatar did not see any real danger in the protests but instead view them as an opportunity to expand Doha's regional influence, arguably at Riyadh's expense. Unpacking what are the fundamental factors shaping such perceptions today would be the key to finding the appropriate framework for analysing GCC security in the future. In the summer of 2017, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), widely regarded as one of the most stable regional organizations of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, was hit by the gravest crisis since its formation. 1 The crisis, whose prelude was arguably in 2014 and that is still unfolding in the winter of 2017, threatened the fate of the six-countries-bloc and, in that, was markedly different from recurring skirmishes of the past. The other main difference between past and present, would be that the crises of 2017 and 2014 have happened in the context of a reshuffled region, shook in 2011 by a multitude of events that put into question the political, economic and security dynamics at the domestic and regional levels, contemporarily. This article rests on the premise that the events of 2011 represented a watershed moment in the history of the GCC itself and strives to highlight the direct connections between that moment and the crises of 2014 and 2017. It argues that the recent crises have shown unequivocally how threat perceptions are increasingly divergent at the level of the GCC governments and that, while some divergences have clearly existed for decades, they surfaced predominantly in the context of the popular uprisings of 2011. It further argues that such divergences are rooted in tangible domestic factors-such as deep cleavages in the national fabrics, or dysfunctional socioeconomic dynamics-as well as intangible factors-such as the country's collective memory, its ontological insecurity, and even leaders' individual perceptions. To do so, the article first explores the events of the 2017 crisis and their uniqueness, highlighting the positions of involved parties and those of regional and international key actors. What emerges as a distinctive feature in analysing such alignments is a growing fragmentation over the key issues that are addressed in the context of the crises. To analyse such 7 Mohammed Alyahya provides a helpful insight on Saudi Arabia's perspective in "The Rift with Qatar as Seen in Riyadh", a commentary published by The Atlantic on

Great Britain–Gulf relations

External Powers and the Gulf Monarchies

POWER PLAY: EUROPE'S CLIMATE DIPLOMACY IN THE GULF

European Council on Foreign Relations, 2021

Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental-albeit shrinking-source of... more Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental-albeit shrinking-source of revenues for decades. But, as shown by Saudi Arabia's net-zero pledge, they now see economic and political opportunities in embracing the green energy transition. If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal. Electricity interconnection and green hydrogen are the two most promising fields of clean energy cooperation between the sides. Still, Europeans should not cave to international pressure to lower their ambitions on carbon taxation, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, as this remains a powerful incentive for hydrocarbons producers to make the transition to cleaner energy.

POLICY BRIEF GULF OF DIFFERENCE: HOW EUROPE CAN GET THE GULF MONARCHIES TO PURSUE PEACE WITH IRAN

European Council on Foreign Relations, 2020

At the end of 2020, the Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests t... more At the end of 2020, the Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests through deterrence or through promoting a new diplomatic process. The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran.

The European interest lies in supporting a return to the Iranian nuclear deal and a regional dialogue between the Gulf monarchies and Iran, an approach that is more likely to promote lasting stability. Europeans can support this process in three steps: by strengthening their own regional security posture, confronting head-on the geopolitical tensions at the heart of regional rivalries and launching a confidence-building framework

This paper unpacks individual GCC perceptions and positions on Iran and advances policy ideas on how Europeans can navigate them geopolitically. Link: https://ecfr.eu/publication/gulf-of-difference-how-europe-can-get-the-gulf-monarchies-to-pursue-peace-with-iran/

The Saudi-UAE Alliance Faces its Yemeni Stress Test

by Gulf International Forum and Cinzia Bianco

Commentary, 2018

"KSA-Iran rivalry: an analysis of Saudi strategic calculus"

"Saudi Arabia, Iran and De-Escalation in the Gulf", 2020

An analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategic calculus and threat perceptions of Iran and a two-phases ... more

The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

The International Spectator, 2020

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wid... more The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.

Le monarchie arabe del Golfo. Nuovo centro di gravità in Medio Oriente

Il Mulino, 2023

Poche storie contemporanee sono così rilevanti come l'ascesa delle monarchie del Golfo: da attori... more Poche storie contemporanee sono così rilevanti come l'ascesa delle monarchie del Golfo: da attori secondari sullo scacchiere mediorientale a nuovo centro di gravità del Mediterraneo allargato e, infine, ad attori chiave sui delicati equilibri globali dopo l'invasione russa dell'Ucraina. Il volume racconta questa storia, per conoscere meglio i paesi che assicurano il 20% delle risorse energetiche mondiali, che agiscono come forze importanti negli equilibri finanziari e che condizionano le traiettorie politiche dal Mediterraneo, all'Africa orientale, all'Asia sud-occidentale. Dal conflitto libico alle tensioni con l'Iran, dalla sicurezza di rotte e snodi nevralgici alla delicata partita multipolare tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Russia, le monarchie del Golfo sono al centro di interessi strategici per l'Europa, come per l'Italia. Nel libro si analizzano queste dinamiche in forma chiara e si descrive il ruolo chiave che la Penisola Arabica gioca nei mercati energetici e nella transizione verso forme di energia rinnovabili.

ARAB GEOPOLITICS IN TURMOIL PERCEPTIONS, UNKNOWN AND POLICIES NATO Foundation Defense College

A book based on the proceedings of the Arab Geopolitics in Turmoil international conference by NA... more A book based on the proceedings of the Arab Geopolitics in Turmoil international conference by NATO Defence College Foundation in Rome featuring Speakers such as Mahmoud Jibril , Amre Moussa, Abdulaziz Sager, Steven Enlarger, Christian Koch and many others.

I have contributed to author the Background Paper (page 23) which reviews the latest global, regional and domestic roots of conflicts and strategic trends and asks how to define security and stability in todays' boiling Middle East.