CUENCA HIDROGRÁFICA

CUENCA: Majin

ALTITUD PUNTO EMISOR: 480 msnm

ALTITUD MEDIA: 1611.76 msnm

TIEMPO DE CONCENTRACIÓN: 107.41 min

PERIODO DE RETORNO: 50 años

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE CAJAMARCA HIDROLOGIA SUPERFICIAL

PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 horas

ESTACIÓN: CHOTA DEPARTAMENTO : CAJAMARCA

ALTITUD: 2426 msnm PROVINCIA : CHOTA
LATITUD: 06 º 32' 51'' S LONGITUD : 78 º 38' 56.04'' W

Precipitacion Maxima
en 24 horas
Según el articulo de Modelamiento
Año MAXIMA Hidologico e Hidraulico en Obras Viales,
1975 37.70 Julio Kuroiwa
1976 36.50
1977 40.50
1978 18.10 La informacion que se encuentra
1979 28.00 disponible para estaciones
1980 28.80 diseminadas a lo largo del territorio
1981 39.30 es la precipitacion maxima registrada
1982 30.50 en un periodo de 24 horas, por lo que
1983 29.80 se utilizan formulas para ajustar la
1984 27.60 precipitacion de acuerdo al periodo de
1985 19.80 duracion deseado
1986 27.40
1987 24.30 Se aplica la ecuacion de Dick y Pescke
1988 18.20

𝑃_𝑑=𝑃_24ℎ𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑠∗[𝑑/1440]^0.25
1989 30.00
1990 25.40
1991 29.70
1992 17.70
1993 22.50 Donde:
1994 28.50
1995 20.60 Pd : Precipitacion total para la
1996 35.10 duracion d minutos (en mm)
1997 27.60 Phoras : Precipitacion maxima en 24
1998 31.70 horas para un periodo de diseño
1999 38.80 diseño (mm)
2000 36.10 d: duracion en minutos
2001 28.20 5', 10', etc
2002 22.30
2003 20.80
2004 28.10
2005 20.20
2006 20.60
2007 25.40
2008 27.00
2009 22.20
2010 36.40
2011 27.70
2012 27.90 FUENTE: SENAMHI

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LLUVIAS MAXIMAS (mm)

ESTACIÓN: CHOTA DEPARTAMENTO : CAJAMARCA

ALTITUD: 2426 msnm PROVINCIA : CHOTA
LATITUD: 06 º 32' 51'' S LONGITUD : 78 º 38' 56.04'' W

m Año 5 min 10 min 15 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 1975 9.15 10.88 12.04 14.32 17.03 20.26
2 1976 8.86 10.54 11.66 13.87 16.49 19.61
3 1977 9.83 11.69 12.94 15.39 18.30 21.76
4 1978 4.39 5.23 5.78 6.88 8.18 9.72
5 1979 6.80 8.08 8.95 10.64 12.65 15.04
6 1980 6.99 8.31 9.20 10.94 13.01 15.47
7 1981 9.54 11.34 12.56 14.93 17.76 21.12
8 1982 7.40 8.80 9.74 11.59 13.78 16.39
9 1983 7.23 8.60 9.52 11.32 13.46 16.01
10 1984 6.70 7.97 8.82 10.49 12.47 14.83
11 1985 4.81 5.72 6.33 7.52 8.95 10.64
12 1986 6.65 7.91 8.75 10.41 12.38 14.72
13 1987 5.90 7.01 7.76 9.23 10.98 13.06
14 1988 4.42 5.25 5.81 6.91 8.22 9.78
15 1989 7.28 8.66 9.58 11.40 13.55 16.12
16 1990 6.17 7.33 8.11 9.65 11.48 13.65
17 1991 7.21 8.57 9.49 11.28 13.42 15.96
18 1992 4.30 5.11 5.65 6.72 8.00 9.51
19 1993 5.46 6.50 7.19 8.55 10.17 12.09
20 1994 6.92 8.23 9.10 10.83 12.88 15.31
21 1995 5.00 5.95 6.58 7.83 9.31 11.07
22 1996 8.52 10.13 11.21 13.34 15.86 18.86
23 1997 6.70 7.97 8.82 10.49 12.47 14.83
24 1998 7.70 9.15 10.13 12.04 14.32 17.03
25 1999 9.42 11.20 12.40 14.74 17.53 20.85
26 2000 8.76 10.42 11.53 13.72 16.31 19.40
27 2001 6.85 8.14 9.01 10.71 12.74 15.15
28 2002 5.41 6.44 7.12 8.47 10.08 11.98
29 2003 5.05 6.00 6.65 7.90 9.40 11.18
30 2004 6.82 8.11 8.98 10.68 12.70 15.10
31 2005 4.90 5.83 6.45 7.67 9.13 10.85
32 2006 5.00 5.95 6.58 7.83 9.31 11.07
33 2007 6.17 7.33 8.11 9.65 11.48 13.65
34 2008 6.55 7.79 8.63 10.26 12.20 14.51
35 2009 5.39 6.41 7.09 8.43 10.03 11.93
36 2010 8.84 10.51 11.63 13.83 16.45 19.56
37 2011 6.72 8.00 8.85 10.52 12.51 14.88
38 2012 6.77 8.05 8.91 10.60 12.61 14.99

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INTENSIDADES MÁXIMAS (mm/hr)

Para el calculo de intensidad se aplica la siguiente formula:

𝐼=𝑃𝑃 /𝑇
Donde: PP : Precipitacion (mm)
T: Tiempo en horas

ESTACIÓN: CHOTA DEPARTAMENTO : CAJAMARCA

ALTITUD: 2426 msnm PROVINCIA : CHOTA
LATITUD: 06 º 32' 51'' S LONGITUD : 78 º 38' 56.04'' W

m Año 5 min 10 min 15 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 1975 109.82 65.30 48.18 28.65 17.03 10.13
2 1976 106.32 63.22 46.64 27.73 16.49 9.81
3 1977 117.97 70.15 51.75 30.77 18.30 10.88
4 1978 52.72 31.35 23.13 13.75 8.18 4.86
5 1979 81.56 48.50 35.78 21.28 12.65 7.52
6 1980 83.89 49.88 36.80 21.88 13.01 7.74
7 1981 114.48 68.07 50.22 29.86 17.76 10.56
8 1982 88.84 52.83 38.98 23.17 13.78 8.19
9 1983 86.81 51.62 38.08 22.64 13.46 8.01
10 1984 80.40 47.80 35.27 20.97 12.47 7.41
11 1985 57.68 34.29 25.30 15.04 8.95 5.32
12 1986 79.81 47.46 35.01 20.82 12.38 7.36
13 1987 70.78 42.09 31.05 18.46 10.98 6.53
14 1988 53.02 31.52 23.26 13.83 8.22 4.89
15 1989 87.39 51.96 38.34 22.80 13.55 8.06
16 1990 73.99 43.99 32.46 19.30 11.48 6.82
17 1991 86.51 51.44 37.95 22.57 13.42 7.98
18 1992 51.56 30.66 22.62 13.45 8.00 4.75
19 1993 65.54 38.97 28.75 17.10 10.17 6.04
20 1994 83.02 49.36 36.42 21.66 12.88 7.66
21 1995 60.01 35.68 26.32 15.65 9.31 5.53
22 1996 102.24 60.79 44.85 26.67 15.86 9.43
23 1997 80.40 47.80 35.27 20.97 12.47 7.41
24 1998 92.34 54.91 40.51 24.09 14.32 8.52
25 1999 113.02 67.20 49.58 29.48 17.53 10.42
26 2000 105.16 62.53 46.13 27.43 16.31 9.70
27 2001 82.15 48.84 36.04 21.43 12.74 7.58
28 2002 64.96 38.62 28.50 16.94 10.08 5.99
29 2003 60.59 36.03 26.58 15.80 9.40 5.59
30 2004 81.85 48.67 35.91 21.35 12.70 7.55
31 2005 58.84 34.99 25.81 15.35 9.13 5.43
32 2006 60.01 35.68 26.32 15.65 9.31 5.53
33 2007 73.99 43.99 32.46 19.30 11.48 6.82
34 2008 78.65 46.77 34.50 20.52 12.20 7.25
35 2009 64.67 38.45 28.37 16.87 10.03 5.96
36 2010 106.03 63.05 46.52 27.66 16.45 9.78
37 2011 80.69 47.98 35.40 21.05 12.51 7.44
38 2012 81.27 48.32 35.65 21.20 12.61 7.50

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TRANSPOSICION DE INTENSIDADES (mm/hr)

CUENCA: MAJIN DEPARTAMENTO : CAJAMARCA

ALTITUD: 480 msnm PROVINCIA : CHOTA
ALTITUD MEDIA: 1611.8 msnm

𝐼_
𝐼_2=𝐼_1 ∗ 2:
𝐼_1
Donde: Intensidad de la microcuenca

:
𝐻_𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎/𝐻_1 𝐻_𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎
Intensidad de la Estacion Weberbawer

: 𝐻_1
Altitud media de la microcuenca

:
Altitud de la Estacion Weberbawer

m Año 5 min 10 min 15 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 1975 72.96 43.38 32.01 19.03 11.32 6.73
2 1976 70.64 42.00 30.99 18.43 10.96 6.51
3 1977 78.38 46.60 34.38 20.44 12.16 7.23
4 1978 35.03 20.83 15.37 9.14 5.43 3.23
5 1979 54.19 32.22 23.77 14.13 8.40 5.00
6 1980 55.74 33.14 24.45 14.54 8.64 5.14
7 1981 76.06 45.22 33.37 19.84 11.80 7.01
8 1982 59.03 35.10 25.89 15.40 9.15 5.44
9 1983 57.67 34.29 25.30 15.04 8.94 5.32
10 1984 53.41 31.76 23.43 13.93 8.28 4.93
11 1985 38.32 22.78 16.81 10.00 5.94 3.53
12 1986 53.03 31.53 23.26 13.83 8.22 4.89
13 1987 47.03 27.96 20.63 12.27 7.29 4.34
14 1988 35.22 20.94 15.45 9.19 5.46 3.25
15 1989 58.06 34.52 25.47 15.14 9.00 5.35
16 1990 49.16 29.23 21.56 12.82 7.62 4.53
17 1991 57.48 34.18 25.21 14.99 8.91 5.30
18 1992 34.25 20.37 15.03 8.94 5.31 3.16
19 1993 43.54 25.89 19.10 11.36 6.75 4.02
20 1994 55.16 32.80 24.20 14.39 8.55 5.09
21 1995 39.87 23.70 17.49 10.40 6.18 3.68
22 1996 67.93 40.39 29.80 17.72 10.54 6.26
23 1997 53.41 31.76 23.43 13.93 8.28 4.93
24 1998 61.35 36.48 26.91 16.00 9.52 5.66
25 1999 75.09 44.65 32.94 19.59 11.65 6.92
26 2000 69.86 41.54 30.65 18.22 10.84 6.44
27 2001 54.57 32.45 23.94 14.24 8.46 5.03
28 2002 43.16 25.66 18.93 11.26 6.69 3.98
29 2003 40.25 23.93 17.66 10.50 6.24 3.71
30 2004 54.38 32.34 23.86 14.19 8.43 5.02
31 2005 39.09 23.24 17.15 10.20 6.06 3.61
32 2006 39.87 23.70 17.49 10.40 6.18 3.68
33 2007 49.16 29.23 21.56 12.82 7.62 4.53
34 2008 52.25 31.07 22.92 13.63 8.10 4.82
35 2009 42.96 25.55 18.85 11.21 6.66 3.96
36 2010 70.44 41.89 30.90 18.38 10.93 6.50
37 2011 53.61 31.87 23.52 13.98 8.31 4.94
38 2012 53.99 32.11 23.69 14.08 8.37 4.98
Promedio 53.83 32.01 23.62 14.04 8.35 4.96

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[Link] 12.31 7.32 5.40 3.21 1.91 1.14

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ORDENAMOS LOS DATOS DE MAYOR A MENOR PARA CADA TIEMPO

m 5 min 10 min 15 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 74.979 44.583 32.893 19.558 11.629 6.915
2 72.757 43.262 31.918 18.979 11.285 6.710
3 71.832 42.711 31.512 18.737 11.141 6.625
4 69.795 41.500 30.619 18.206 10.825 6.437
5 67.574 40.179 29.644 17.626 10.481 6.232
6 67.388 40.069 29.563 17.578 10.452 6.215
7 66.833 39.739 29.319 17.433 10.366 6.164
8 64.982 38.638 28.507 16.950 10.079 5.993
9 58.687 34.896 25.746 15.308 9.102 5.412
10 56.466 33.575 24.771 14.729 8.758 5.207
11 55.540 33.024 24.365 14.487 8.614 5.122
12 55.170 32.804 24.202 14.391 8.557 5.088
13 54.985 32.694 24.121 14.343 8.528 5.071
14 53.318 31.703 23.390 13.908 8.270 4.917
15 52.763 31.373 23.147 13.763 8.184 4.866
16 52.208 31.043 22.903 13.618 8.097 4.815
17 52.022 30.933 22.822 13.570 8.069 4.798
18 51.837 30.823 22.741 13.522 8.040 4.781
19 51.652 30.713 22.659 13.473 8.011 4.764
20 51.282 30.492 22.497 13.377 7.954 4.729
21 51.097 30.382 22.416 13.328 7.925 4.712
22 51.097 30.382 22.416 13.328 7.925 4.712
23 50.726 30.162 22.253 13.232 7.868 4.678
24 49.986 29.722 21.928 13.039 7.753 4.610
25 47.024 27.961 20.629 12.266 7.293 4.337
26 47.024 27.961 20.629 12.266 7.293 4.337
27 44.987 26.750 19.736 11.735 6.978 4.149
28 41.655 24.768 18.274 10.866 6.461 3.842
29 41.285 24.548 18.111 10.769 6.403 3.807
30 41.100 24.438 18.030 10.721 6.375 3.790
31 38.508 22.897 16.893 10.045 5.973 3.551
32 38.137 22.677 16.731 9.948 5.915 3.517
33 38.137 22.677 16.731 9.948 5.915 3.517
34 37.397 22.236 16.406 9.755 5.800 3.449
35 36.656 21.796 16.081 9.562 5.685 3.381
36 33.694 20.035 14.781 8.789 5.226 3.107
37 33.509 19.925 14.700 8.741 5.197 3.090

𝑥 ̅
38 32.769 19.484 14.375 8.548 5.082 3.022
51.50 30.62 22.59 13.43 7.99 4.75
S 11.78 7.00 5.17 3.07 1.83 1.09

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SELECCIÓN DEL MODELO MATEMATICO

MODELO MATEMÁTICO DE WEIBULL

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

𝐹_((𝑥))=
T = 5 min

𝑒^(−𝑒^(−
((𝑥−𝜇)/𝛼)
1/𝛼=𝜎_𝑦/𝑆 ))
PARAMETROS

Si. N= 38 𝜇=𝑥 ̅−𝑎∗𝜇_𝑦

𝑥 ̅ 𝜎_𝑦 𝜇_𝑦

𝛼 𝜇
51.50 1.28255 0.57721
S 11.78 9.185 46.194

P (X>x)
m T = 5 min 1-P(X>x) F(x) |P(X)-F(X)|
Weibull
1 74.979 0.026 0.974 0.9574 0.017
2 72.757 0.051 0.949 0.9460 0.003
3 71.832 0.077 0.923 0.9405 0.017
4 69.795 0.103 0.897 0.9263 0.029
5 67.574 0.128 0.872 0.9071 0.035
6 67.388 0.154 0.846 0.9053 0.059
7 66.833 0.179 0.821 0.8997 0.079
8 64.982 0.205 0.795 0.8787 0.084
9 58.687 0.231 0.769 0.7736 0.004
10 56.466 0.256 0.744 0.7212 0.022
11 55.540 0.282 0.718 0.6966 0.021
12 55.170 0.308 0.692 0.6863 0.006
13 54.985 0.333 0.667 0.6811 0.014
14 53.318 0.359 0.641 0.6310 0.010
15 52.763 0.385 0.615 0.6132 0.002
16 52.208 0.410 0.590 0.5947 0.005
17 52.022 0.436 0.564 0.5885 0.024
18 51.837 0.462 0.538 0.5822 0.044
19 51.652 0.487 0.513 0.5758 0.063
20 51.282 0.513 0.487 0.5629 0.076
21 51.097 0.538 0.462 0.5563 0.095
22 51.097 0.564 0.436 0.5563 0.120
23 50.726 0.590 0.410 0.5431 0.133
24 49.986 0.615 0.385 0.5159 0.131
25 47.024 0.641 0.359 0.4011 0.042
26 47.024 0.667 0.333 0.4011 0.068
27 44.987 0.692 0.308 0.3197 0.012
28 41.655 0.718 0.282 0.1941 0.088
29 41.285 0.744 0.256 0.1815 0.075
30 41.100 0.769 0.231 0.1753 0.055
31 38.508 0.795 0.205 0.0993 0.106
32 38.137 0.821 0.179 0.0903 0.089
33 38.137 0.846 0.154 0.0903 0.063
34 37.397 0.872 0.128 0.0738 0.054
35 36.656 0.897 0.103 0.0593 0.043

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36 33.694 0.923 0.077 0.0202 0.057

37 33.509 0.949 0.051 0.0187 0.033
38 32.769 0.974 0.026 0.0134 0.012

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Weibull (Δc máx):

Δ= 0.133

HISTOGRAMA ( t = 5 min)
1.20

1.00

0.80
Probabilidad

0.60

TEORICO
0.40
WEIBULL

0.20

0.00
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Intensidades mm/h

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

𝐹_((𝑥))=
T = 10 min

𝑒^(−𝑒^(−
((𝑥−𝜇)/𝛼)
1/𝛼=𝜎_𝑦/𝑆 ))
PARAMETROS

Si. N= 38 𝜇=𝑥 ̅−𝑎∗𝜇_𝑦

𝑥 ̅ 𝜎_𝑦 𝜇_𝑦

𝛼 𝜇
30.62 1.28255 0.57721
S 7.00 5.462 27.467

P (X>x)
m T = 10 min 1-P(X>x) F(x) |P(X)-F(X)|
Weibull
1 44.583 0.026 0.974 0.9574 0.017
2 43.262 0.051 0.949 0.9460 0.003
3 42.711 0.077 0.923 0.9405 0.017
4 41.500 0.103 0.897 0.9263 0.029
5 40.179 0.128 0.872 0.9071 0.035
6 40.069 0.154 0.846 0.9053 0.059
7 39.739 0.179 0.821 0.8997 0.079
8 38.638 0.205 0.795 0.8787 0.084
9 34.896 0.231 0.769 0.7736 0.004
10 33.575 0.256 0.744 0.7212 0.022
11 33.024 0.282 0.718 0.6966 0.021
12 32.804 0.308 0.692 0.6863 0.006
13 32.694 0.333 0.667 0.6811 0.014
14 31.703 0.359 0.641 0.6310 0.010

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15 31.373 0.385 0.615 0.6132 0.002

16 31.043 0.410 0.590 0.5947 0.005

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17 30.933 0.436 0.564 0.5885 0.024

18 30.823 0.462 0.538 0.5822 0.044
19 30.713 0.487 0.513 0.5758 0.063
20 30.492 0.513 0.487 0.5629 0.076
21 30.382 0.538 0.462 0.5563 0.095
22 30.382 0.564 0.436 0.5563 0.120
23 30.162 0.590 0.410 0.5431 0.133
24 29.722 0.615 0.385 0.5159 0.131
25 27.961 0.641 0.359 0.4011 0.042
26 27.961 0.667 0.333 0.4011 0.068
27 26.750 0.692 0.308 0.3197 0.012
28 24.768 0.718 0.282 0.1941 0.088
29 24.548 0.744 0.256 0.1815 0.075
30 24.438 0.769 0.231 0.1753 0.055
31 22.897 0.795 0.205 0.0993 0.106
32 22.677 0.821 0.179 0.0903 0.089
33 22.677 0.846 0.154 0.0903 0.063
34 22.236 0.872 0.128 0.0738 0.054
35 21.796 0.897 0.103 0.0593 0.043
36 20.035 0.923 0.077 0.0202 0.057
37 19.925 0.949 0.051 0.0187 0.033
38 19.484 0.974 0.026 0.0134 0.012

Weibull (Δc máx):

Δ= 0.133

HISTOGRAMA ( t = 10 min)
1.20

1.00

0.80
Probabilidad

0.60

0.40 TEORICO

WEIBULL

0.20

0.00
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Intensidades mm/h

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PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

𝐹_((𝑥))=
T = 15 min

𝑒^(−𝑒^(−
((𝑥−𝜇)/𝛼)
1/𝛼=𝜎_𝑦/𝑆 ))
PARAMETROS

Si. N= 38 𝜇=𝑥 ̅−𝑎∗𝜇_𝑦

𝑥 ̅ 𝜎_𝑦 𝜇_𝑦

𝛼 𝜇
22.59 1.28255 0.57721
S 5.17 4.029 20.265

P (X>x)
m T = 15 min 1-P(X>x) F(x) |P(X)-F(X)|
Weibull
1 32.893 0.026 0.974 0.9574 0.017
2 31.918 0.051 0.949 0.9460 0.003
3 31.512 0.077 0.923 0.9405 0.017
4 30.619 0.103 0.897 0.9263 0.029
5 29.644 0.128 0.872 0.9071 0.035
6 29.563 0.154 0.846 0.9053 0.059
7 29.319 0.179 0.821 0.8997 0.079
8 28.507 0.205 0.795 0.8787 0.084
9 25.746 0.231 0.769 0.7736 0.004
10 24.771 0.256 0.744 0.7212 0.022
11 24.365 0.282 0.718 0.6966 0.021
12 24.202 0.308 0.692 0.6863 0.006
13 24.121 0.333 0.667 0.6811 0.014
14 23.390 0.359 0.641 0.6310 0.010
15 23.147 0.385 0.615 0.6132 0.002
16 22.903 0.410 0.590 0.5947 0.005
17 22.822 0.436 0.564 0.5885 0.024
18 22.741 0.462 0.538 0.5822 0.044
19 22.659 0.487 0.513 0.5758 0.063
20 22.497 0.513 0.487 0.5629 0.076
21 22.416 0.538 0.462 0.5563 0.095
22 22.416 0.564 0.436 0.5563 0.120
23 22.253 0.590 0.410 0.5431 0.133
24 21.928 0.615 0.385 0.5159 0.131
25 20.629 0.641 0.359 0.4011 0.042
26 20.629 0.667 0.333 0.4011 0.068
27 19.736 0.692 0.308 0.3197 0.012
28 18.274 0.718 0.282 0.1941 0.088
29 18.111 0.744 0.256 0.1815 0.075
30 18.030 0.769 0.231 0.1753 0.055
31 16.893 0.795 0.205 0.0993 0.106
32 16.731 0.821 0.179 0.0903 0.089
33 16.731 0.846 0.154 0.0903 0.063
34 16.406 0.872 0.128 0.0738 0.054
35 16.081 0.897 0.103 0.0593 0.043
36 14.781 0.923 0.077 0.0202 0.057
37 14.700 0.949 0.051 0.0187 0.033
38 14.375 0.974 0.026 0.0134 0.012

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Weibull (Δc máx):

Δ= 0.133

HISTOGRAMA ( t = 15 min)
1.20

1.00

0.80
Probabilidad

0.60

0.40 TEORICO

WEIBULL

0.20

0.00
10 15 20 25 30 35

Intensidades mm/h

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

𝐹_((𝑥))=
T = 30 min

𝑒^(−𝑒^(−
((𝑥−𝜇)/𝛼)
1/𝛼=𝜎_𝑦/𝑆 ))
PARAMETROS

Si. N= 38 𝜇=𝑥 ̅−𝑎∗𝜇_𝑦

𝑥 ̅ 𝜎_𝑦 𝜇_𝑦

𝛼 𝜇
13.43 1.28255 0.57721
S 3.07 2.396 12.050

P (X>x)
m T = 30 min 1-P(X>x) F(x) |P(X)-F(X)|
Weibull
1 19.558 0.026 0.974 0.9574 0.017
2 18.979 0.051 0.949 0.9460 0.003
3 18.737 0.077 0.923 0.9405 0.017
4 18.206 0.103 0.897 0.9263 0.029
5 17.626 0.128 0.872 0.9071 0.035
6 17.578 0.154 0.846 0.9053 0.059
7 17.433 0.179 0.821 0.8997 0.079
8 16.950 0.205 0.795 0.8787 0.084
9 15.308 0.231 0.769 0.7736 0.004
10 14.729 0.256 0.744 0.7212 0.022
11 14.487 0.282 0.718 0.6966 0.021
12 14.391 0.308 0.692 0.6863 0.006
13 14.343 0.333 0.667 0.6811 0.014
14 13.908 0.359 0.641 0.6310 0.010

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15 13.763 0.385 0.615 0.6132 0.002

16 13.618 0.410 0.590 0.5947 0.005

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17 13.570 0.436 0.564 0.5885 0.024

18 13.522 0.462 0.538 0.5822 0.044
19 13.473 0.487 0.513 0.5758 0.063
20 13.377 0.513 0.487 0.5629 0.076
21 13.328 0.538 0.462 0.5563 0.095
22 13.328 0.564 0.436 0.5563 0.120
23 13.232 0.590 0.410 0.5431 0.133
24 13.039 0.615 0.385 0.5159 0.131
25 12.266 0.641 0.359 0.4011 0.042
26 12.266 0.667 0.333 0.4011 0.068
27 11.735 0.692 0.308 0.3197 0.012
28 10.866 0.718 0.282 0.1941 0.088
29 10.769 0.744 0.256 0.1815 0.075
30 10.721 0.769 0.231 0.1753 0.055
31 10.045 0.795 0.205 0.0993 0.106
32 9.948 0.821 0.179 0.0903 0.089
33 9.948 0.846 0.154 0.0903 0.063
34 9.755 0.872 0.128 0.0738 0.054
35 9.562 0.897 0.103 0.0593 0.043
36 8.789 0.923 0.077 0.0202 0.057
37 8.741 0.949 0.051 0.0187 0.033
38 8.548 0.974 0.026 0.0134 0.012

Weibull (Δc máx):

Δ= 0.133

HISTOGRAMA ( t = 30min)
1.20

1.00

0.80
Probabilidad

0.60

0.40 TEORICO

WEIBULL

0.20

0.00
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Intensidades mm/h

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PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

𝐹_((𝑥))=
T = 60 min

𝑒^(−𝑒^(−
((𝑥−𝜇)/𝛼)
1/𝛼=𝜎_𝑦/𝑆 ))
PARAMETROS

Si. N= 38 𝜇=𝑥 ̅−𝑎∗𝜇_𝑦

𝑥 ̅ 𝜎_𝑦 𝜇_𝑦

𝛼 𝜇
7.99 1.28255 0.57721
S 1.83 1.425 7.165

P (X>x)
m T = 60 min 1-P(X>x) F(x) |P(X)-F(X)|
Weibull
1 11.629 0.026 0.974 0.9574 0.017
2 11.285 0.051 0.949 0.9460 0.003
3 11.141 0.077 0.923 0.9405 0.017
4 10.825 0.103 0.897 0.9263 0.029
5 10.481 0.128 0.872 0.9071 0.035
6 10.452 0.154 0.846 0.9053 0.059
7 10.366 0.179 0.821 0.8997 0.079
8 10.079 0.205 0.795 0.8787 0.084
9 9.102 0.231 0.769 0.7736 0.004
10 8.758 0.256 0.744 0.7212 0.022
11 8.614 0.282 0.718 0.6966 0.021
12 8.557 0.308 0.692 0.6863 0.006
13 8.528 0.333 0.667 0.6811 0.014
14 8.270 0.359 0.641 0.6310 0.010
15 8.184 0.385 0.615 0.6132 0.002
16 8.097 0.410 0.590 0.5947 0.005
17 8.069 0.436 0.564 0.5885 0.024
18 8.040 0.462 0.538 0.5822 0.044
19 8.011 0.487 0.513 0.5758 0.063
20 7.954 0.513 0.487 0.5629 0.076
21 7.925 0.538 0.462 0.5563 0.095
22 7.925 0.564 0.436 0.5563 0.120
23 7.868 0.590 0.410 0.5431 0.133
24 7.753 0.615 0.385 0.5159 0.131
25 7.293 0.641 0.359 0.4011 0.042
26 7.293 0.667 0.333 0.4011 0.068
27 6.978 0.692 0.308 0.3197 0.012
28 6.461 0.718 0.282 0.1941 0.088
29 6.403 0.744 0.256 0.1815 0.075
30 6.375 0.769 0.231 0.1753 0.055
31 5.973 0.795 0.205 0.0993 0.106
32 5.915 0.821 0.179 0.0903 0.089
33 5.915 0.846 0.154 0.0903 0.063
34 5.800 0.872 0.128 0.0738 0.054
35 5.685 0.897 0.103 0.0593 0.043
36 5.226 0.923 0.077 0.0202 0.057
37 5.197 0.949 0.051 0.0187 0.033
38 5.082 0.974 0.026 0.0134 0.012

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Weibull (Δc máx):

Δ= 0.133

HISTOGRAMA ( t = 60min)
1.20

1.00

0.80
Probabilidad

0.60

TEORICO
0.40
WEIBULL

0.20

0.00
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Intensidades mm/h

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

𝐹_((𝑥))=
T = 120 min

𝑒^(−𝑒^(−
((𝑥−𝜇)/𝛼)
1/𝛼=𝜎_𝑦/𝑆 ))
PARAMETROS

Si. N= 38 𝜇=𝑥 ̅−𝑎∗𝜇_𝑦

𝑥 ̅ 𝜎_𝑦 𝜇_𝑦

𝛼 𝜇
4.75 1.28255 0.57721
S 1.09 0.847 4.260

P (X>x)
m T = 120 min 1-P(X>x) F(x) |P(X)-F(X)|
Weibull
1 6.915 0.026 0.974 0.9574 0.017
2 6.710 0.051 0.949 0.9460 0.003
3 6.625 0.077 0.923 0.9405 0.017
4 6.437 0.103 0.897 0.9263 0.029
5 6.232 0.128 0.872 0.9071 0.035
6 6.215 0.154 0.846 0.9053 0.059
7 6.164 0.179 0.821 0.8997 0.079
8 5.993 0.205 0.795 0.8787 0.084
9 5.412 0.231 0.769 0.7736 0.004
10 5.207 0.256 0.744 0.7212 0.022
11 5.122 0.282 0.718 0.6966 0.021
12 5.088 0.308 0.692 0.6863 0.006
13 5.071 0.333 0.667 0.6811 0.014
14 4.917 0.359 0.641 0.6310 0.010

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15 4.866 0.385 0.615 0.6132 0.002

16 4.815 0.410 0.590 0.5947 0.005

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17 4.798 0.436 0.564 0.5885 0.024

18 4.781 0.462 0.538 0.5822 0.044
19 4.764 0.487 0.513 0.5758 0.063
20 4.729 0.513 0.487 0.5629 0.076
21 4.712 0.538 0.462 0.5563 0.095
22 4.712 0.564 0.436 0.5563 0.120
23 4.678 0.590 0.410 0.5431 0.133
24 4.610 0.615 0.385 0.5159 0.131
25 4.337 0.641 0.359 0.4011 0.042
26 4.337 0.667 0.333 0.4011 0.068
27 4.149 0.692 0.308 0.3197 0.012
28 3.842 0.718 0.282 0.1941 0.088
29 3.807 0.744 0.256 0.1815 0.075
30 3.790 0.769 0.231 0.1753 0.055
31 3.551 0.795 0.205 0.0993 0.106
32 3.517 0.821 0.179 0.0903 0.089
33 3.517 0.846 0.154 0.0903 0.063
34 3.449 0.872 0.128 0.0738 0.054
35 3.381 0.897 0.103 0.0593 0.043
36 3.107 0.923 0.077 0.0202 0.057
37 3.090 0.949 0.051 0.0187 0.033
38 3.022 0.974 0.026 0.0134 0.012

Weibull (Δc máx):

Δ= 0.133

HISTOGRAMA ( t = 120 min)

1.20

1.00

0.80
Probabilidad

0.60

0.40 TEORICO

WEIBULL

0.20

0.00
2 4 6 8

Intensidades mm/h

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RESUMEN

Weibull (Dc máx) 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133

Duración (min) 5 10 15 30 60 120

∝ =5%
Cálculo del Do Critico
Nivel de Significacion

∆ = 1.36/√𝑁
N > 35
N= 38
Δ= 0.221

Del cuadro resumen anterior podemos ver que:

Como Dcmáx < Do , entonces los datos se ajustan al modelo de Gumbel.

𝑥=𝑢−𝛼∗(𝐿𝑛(−𝐿𝑛(1−1/𝑇)))

PARAMETROS PARA MODELO GUMBELL

5min 10min 15min 30min 60min 120min

P
Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max.
Prom. 51.50 30.62 22.59 13.43 7.99 4.75

𝛼
Desv. 11.78 7.00 5.17 3.07 1.83 1.09

𝑢
9.19 5.46 4.03 2.40 1.42 0.85
46.19 27.47 20.27 12.05 7.16 4.26

CALCULO PARA DE LAS INTENSIDADES PARA UN Tr DE 50 AÑOS

TR = 50 años

5min 10min 15min 30min 60min 120min

Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max.
82.035 48.778 35.988 21.399 12.724 7.566

CURVA IDF( INTENSIDAD - DURACION -TIEMPO DE RETORNO)

Intensidades (mm/hr)
Tiempo (min)
5 82.035
10 48.778
15 35.988
30 21.399
60 12.724
120 7.566

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CURVA IDF
90
80
f(x) = 274.299233042306 x^-0.75 CURVA IDF
70 R² = 1

INTENSIDAD (mm/hr) 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 25 50 75 100 125

TIEMPO (min)

ECUACIÓN DE AJUSTE DE LA CURVA

𝑦=274.3∗𝑥^(−0.75)

Donde en función del tiempo y de la intensidad se tiene la ecuacion

𝐼=274.3∗𝑇_𝑐^(−0.75)

Donde:
I = Intensidad
T = Tiempo de concentración

CALCULAMOS EL TIEMPO DE CONCENTRACION

El tiempo de concentracion según Kirpich es:

𝑇_𝑐=0.01947∗𝐿^0.77∗𝑆^(−0.385)

Donde:
L = Longitud del cauce mayor (m)
S = Pendiente del cauce principal (m/m)

Longitud del cauce mayor

L= 22005.3383 m 22.0053383 Km
Pendiente del cauce
S= 0.0926 m/m 9.255178448 %

Tc = 107.412 min
Tc = 1.790 horas

Reemplazando la ecuación:

𝐼=274.3∗𝑇_𝑐^(−0.75)

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I= 8.22 mm/hr

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 RESULTADOS

CURVA IDF( INTENSIDAD - DURACION -TIEMPO DE RETORNO)

Tiempo
Intensidades (mm/hr)
(min)
5 82.035
10 48.778
15 35.988
30 21.399
60 12.724
120 7.566

CURVA IDF
90
80
f(x) = 274.299233042306 x^-0.75 CURVA IDF
70 R² = 1
INTENSIDAD (mm/hr)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 25 50 75 100 125

TIEMPO (min)

ECUACIÓN DE AJUSTE DE LA CURVA

𝑦=274.3∗𝑥^(−0.75)

Donde en función del tiempo y de la intensidad se tiene la ecuacion

Donde:
I = Intensidad
Tc = Tiempo de concentración = 107.41 min

𝐼=274.3∗𝑇_𝑐^(−0.75)

I= 8.22 mm/hr