Valorización de empresas
Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
Netflix Inc, Estado de Resultados
USD, '000 2019 2020
Ingresos 20,156,447 24,996,056
Costo de ventas 3,120,387 4,353,697
Margen Bruto 17,036,060 20,642,359
Gastos de administración y ventas 5,111,980 5,134,448
EBITDA 11,924,080 15,507,911
Depreciación y Amortización 9,319,826 10,922,622
EBIT 2,604,254 4,585,289
Intereses -626,023 -1,385,940
Otros ingresos (costos) 84,000 0
EBT 2,062,231 3,199,349
Impuestos 195,315 437,954
Utilidad (perdida) neta del ejercicio 1,866,916 2,761,395
Netflix Inc, Balance
USD, '000 2019 2020
Total Activos 35,135,779 39,280,359
Activo corriente 7,338,571 9,761,580
Efectivo y equivalente de efectivo (caja) 5,018,437 8,205,550
Cuentas por cobrar 979,068 610,819
Inventario 180,999 203,042
Otros activos corrientes 1,160,067 742,169
Activo no corriente 27,797,208 29,518,779
Total Pasivos 26,393,555 28,215,119
Pasivo corriente 6,855,696 7,805,785
Cuentas por pagar 1,517,390 1,758,379
Deuda financiera corto plazo 0 499,878
Pasivos diferidos 924,745 1,117,992
Otros pasivos corrientes 4,413,561 4,429,536
Pasivo no corriente 19,537,859 20,409,334
Deuda financiera largo plazo 14,759,260 15,809,095
Otros pasivos no corrientes 4,778,599 4,600,239
Patrimonio 7,582,157 11,065,240
Netflix Inc, Flujo de caja
USD, '000 2019 2020
Flujo de caja operativo -2,887,322 2,427,077
Ingreso neto de operaciones 1,866,916 2,761,395
Ganancias (perdidas) operativas -45,576 533,278
Depreciación y Amortización 9,319,826 10,922,622
Impuesto diferido -94,443 70,066
Compensación basada en acciones 405,376 415,180
Otros elementos no monetarios -14,382,464 -12,243,591
Cambios en capital de trabajo 43,043 -31,873
Flujo de caja de inversión -387,064 -505,354
Inversiones (CAPEX) 253,035 497,923
Intangibles 0 0
Cambios en la inversión 134,029 7,431
Flujo de caja de financiamiento 4,505,662 1,237,311
Caja final 5,043,786 8,238,870
2021 2022 2023
29,697,844 31,615,550 33,723,297
4,893,904 4,805,471 5,160,984
24,803,940 26,810,079 28,562,313
6,170,652 6,814,434 7,053,926
18,633,288 19,995,645 21,508,387
12,438,779 14,362,814 14,554,384
6,194,509 5,632,831 6,954,003
-765,620 -706,212 -748,598
411,214 337,310 0
5,840,103 5,263,929 6,205,405
723,875 772,005 797,415
5,116,228 4,491,924 5,407,990
2021 2022 2023
44,584,663 48,594,768 48,731,992
8,069,825 8,069,825 8,069,825
6,027,804 6,027,804 6,027,804
804,320 804,320 804,320
323,818 323,818 323,818
913,883 913,883 913,883
36,514,838 36,514,838 36,514,838
28,735,415 27,817,367 28,143,679
8,488,966 8,488,966 8,488,966
2,286,834 2,286,834 2,286,834
699,823 699,823 699,823
1,209,342 1,209,342 1,209,342
4,292,967 4,292,967 4,292,967
20,246,449 20,246,449 20,246,449
14,693,072 14,693,072 14,693,072
5,553,377 5,553,377 5,553,377
15,849,248 20,777,401 20,588,313
2021 2022 2023
392,610 2,026,257 7,274,301
5,116,228 4,491,924 5,407,990
-430,661 -353,111 176,296
12,438,779 14,362,814 14,554,384
199,548 -166,550 -459,359
403,220 575,452 339,368
-17,092,527 -16,126,185 -12,628,230
-241,977 -758,087 -116,148
-497,666 407,729 348,552
524,585 -407,729 -348,552
0 0 0
-26,919 0 0
-1,149,776 -664,254 -3,491,825
6,055,111 5,170,582 7,246,930
Cost of Equity Costo Patrimonial 11.42%
Market Risk Premium Premio por riesgo de mercado 5.50%
(x) Beta Beta 1.240
(+) Risk Free Rate Tasa libre de riesgo 4.60%
Cost of Debt Costo de la deuda 5.32%
Average Yield on Debt Tasa promedio de la deuda 7.00%
(x) Tax Shield Escudo tributario 76.00%
Tax rate Tasa impositiva 24.00%
WACC 7.90%
Percent of equity % de patrimonio 42.25%
Percent of debt % de deuda 57.75%
Flujo de caja libre = NOPAT + Depreciación - CAPEX - Cambio en capital de trabajo
USD, '000 2019
Ingresos 20,156,447
Crecimiento ingresos
Costo de ventas 3,120,387
Estructura de costos 15.5%
Margen bruto 17,036,060
Gastos de administración y ventas 5,111,980
EBITDA 11,924,080
Depreciación y Amortización 9,319,826
EBIT 2,604,254
Impuesto
NOPAT
(+) Depreciación y Amortización
(-) CAPEX 253,035
(-) NWC 43,043
Flujo de caja libre 2024 2025
NOPAT 7,678,772 11,002,581
(+) Depreciación y Amortización 15,000,000 15,000,000
(-) CAPEX 250,000 250,000
(-) NWC -372,071 -372,071
Valor terminal
FCL 22,800,843 26,124,652
Enterprise Value $205,887,469
Caja y equivalentes $6,027,804
Deduda financiera $15,392,895
Equity Value $196,522,378
Acciones (millones) 444.3
Valor justo por acción 442.3
Valor bursátil (23-11-23) 478.0
Diferencia -7.5%
Recomendación vender
n capital de trabajo
2020 2021 2022 2023E Supuestos
24,996,056 29,697,844 31,615,550 33,723,297 14.0%
24.0% 18.8% 6.5% 6.7%
4,353,697 4,893,904 4,805,471 5,160,984 16%
17.4% 16.5% 15.2% 15.3%
20,642,359 24,803,940 26,810,079 28,562,313
5,134,448 6,170,652 6,814,434 7,053,926 2.0%
15,507,911 18,633,288 19,995,645 21,508,387
10,922,622 12,438,779 14,362,814 14,554,384 15,000,000
4,585,289 6,194,509 5,632,831 6,954,003
24.0%
497,923 524,585 -407,729 -348,552 250,000
-31,873 -241,977 -758,087 -116,148 -372,071
2026 2027 2028 Exit
14,804,372 19,151,256 24,119,740
15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000
250,000 250,000 250,000
-372,071 -372,071 -372,071
136,272,895
29,926,442 34,273,327 39,241,811 136,272,895
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
38,439,883 43,816,138 49,944,322 56,929,603 64,891,855
6,141,231 7,000,152 7,979,203 9,095,185 10,367,250
32,298,652 36,815,985 41,965,119 47,834,418 54,524,605
7,195,005 7,338,905 7,485,683 7,635,396 7,788,104
25,103,647 29,477,081 34,479,436 40,199,021 46,736,500
15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000
10,103,647 14,477,081 19,479,436 25,199,021 31,736,500
2,424,875 3,474,499 4,675,065 6,047,765 7,616,760
7,678,772 11,002,581 14,804,372 19,151,256 24,119,740
15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000
250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
-372,071 -372,071 -372,071 -372,071 -372,071
Multiplo EV/Ingreso 2.1
Enterprise Value 136,272,895
Flujo de caja libre = NOPAT + Depreciación - CAPEX - Cambio en capital de trabajo
USD, '000 2019
Ingresos 20,156,447
Crecimiento ingresos
Costo de ventas 3,120,387
Estructura de costos 15.5%
Margen bruto 17,036,060
Gastos de administración y ventas 5,111,980
EBITDA 11,924,080
Depreciación y Amortización 9,319,826
EBIT 2,604,254
Impuesto
NOPAT
(+) Depreciación y Amortización
(-) CAPEX 253,035
(-) NWC 43,043
Flujo de caja libre 2024 2025
NOPAT 4,958,510 9,718,222
(+) Depreciación y Amortización 20,000,000 20,000,000
(-) CAPEX 800,000 800,000
(-) NWC -372,071 -372,071
Valor terminal
FCL 24,530,581 29,290,293
Enterprise Value $247,738,010
Caja y equivalentes $6,027,804
Deduda financiera $15,392,895
Equity Value $238,372,919
Acciones (millones) 444.3
Valor justo por acción 536.5
Valor bursátil (23-11-23) 478.0
Diferencia 12.2%
Recomendación comprar
n capital de trabajo
2020 2021 2022 2023E Supuestos
24,996,056 29,697,844 31,615,550 33,723,297 19.0%
24.0% 18.8% 6.5% 6.7%
4,353,697 4,893,904 4,805,471 5,160,984 16%
17.4% 16.5% 15.2% 15.3%
20,642,359 24,803,940 26,810,079 28,562,313
5,134,448 6,170,652 6,814,434 7,053,926 2.0%
15,507,911 18,633,288 19,995,645 21,508,387
10,922,622 12,438,779 14,362,814 14,554,384 20,000,000
4,585,289 6,194,509 5,632,831 6,954,003
24.0%
497,923 524,585 -407,729 -348,552 800,000
-31,873 -241,977 -758,087 -116,148 -372,071
2026 2027 2028 Exit
15,400,871 22,182,186 30,271,295
20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000
800,000 800,000 800,000
-372,071 -372,071 -372,071
168,998,998
34,972,941 41,754,257 49,843,365 168,998,998
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
40,130,723 47,755,561 56,829,117 67,626,650 80,475,713
6,411,363 7,629,522 9,079,131 10,804,166 12,856,958
33,719,360 40,126,039 47,749,986 56,822,483 67,618,755
7,195,005 7,338,905 7,485,683 7,635,396 7,788,104
26,524,356 32,787,134 40,264,303 49,187,087 59,830,651
20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000
6,524,356 12,787,134 20,264,303 29,187,087 39,830,651
1,565,845 3,068,912 4,863,433 7,004,901 9,559,356
4,958,510 9,718,222 15,400,871 22,182,186 30,271,295
20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000
800,000 800,000 800,000 800,000 800,000
-372,071 -372,071 -372,071 -372,071 -372,071
Multiplo EV/Ingreso 2.1
Enterprise Value 168,998,998
Flujo de caja libre = NOPAT + Depreciación - CAPEX - Cambio en capital de trabajo
USD, '000 2019
Ingresos 20,156,447
Crecimiento ingresos
Costo de ventas 3,120,387
Estructura de costos 15.5%
Margen bruto 17,036,060
Gastos de administración y ventas 5,111,980
EBITDA 11,924,080
Depreciación y Amortización 9,319,826
EBIT 2,604,254
Impuesto
NOPAT
(+) Depreciación y Amortización
(-) CAPEX 253,035
(-) NWC 43,043
Flujo de caja libre 2024 2025
NOPAT 8,082,918 11,581,665
(+) Depreciación y Amortización 15,000,000 15,000,000
(-) CAPEX 250,000 250,000
(-) NWC -372,071 -372,071
Valor terminal
FCL 23,204,989 26,703,735
Enterprise Value $223,436,658
Caja y equivalentes $6,027,804
Deduda financiera $15,392,895
Equity Value $214,071,567
Acciones (millones) 444.3
Valor justo por acción 481.9
Valor bursátil (23-11-23) 478.0
Diferencia 0.8%
Recomendación vender
n capital de trabajo
2020 2021 2022 2023E Supuestos
24,996,056 29,697,844 31,615,550 33,723,297 14.0%
24.0% 18.8% 6.5% 6.7%
4,353,697 4,893,904 4,805,471 5,160,984 16%
17.4% 16.5% 15.2% 15.3%
20,642,359 24,803,940 26,810,079 28,562,313
5,134,448 6,170,652 6,814,434 7,053,926 2.0%
15,507,911 18,633,288 19,995,645 21,508,387
10,922,622 12,438,779 14,362,814 14,554,384 15,000,000
4,585,289 6,194,509 5,632,831 6,954,003
20.0%
497,923 524,585 -407,729 -348,552 250,000
-31,873 -241,977 -758,087 -116,148 -372,071
2026 2027 2028 Exit
15,583,549 20,159,217 25,389,200
15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000
250,000 250,000 250,000
-372,071 -372,071 -372,071
136,272,895
30,705,620 35,281,288 40,511,271 136,272,895
Costo Patrimoni 9.32%
Premio por riesg 5.50%
Beta 1.240
Tasa libre de rie 2.50%
Costo de la deu 4.00%
Tasa promedio de 5.00%
Escudo tributario 80.00%
Tasa impositiva 20.00%
6.25%
% de patrimonio 42.25%
% de deuda 57.75%
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
38,439,883 43,816,138 49,944,322 56,929,603 64,891,855
6,141,231 7,000,152 7,979,203 9,095,185 10,367,250
32,298,652 36,815,985 41,965,119 47,834,418 54,524,605
7,195,005 7,338,905 7,485,683 7,635,396 7,788,104
25,103,647 29,477,081 34,479,436 40,199,021 46,736,500
15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000
10,103,647 14,477,081 19,479,436 25,199,021 31,736,500
2,020,729 2,895,416 3,895,887 5,039,804 6,347,300
8,082,918 11,581,665 15,583,549 20,159,217 25,389,200
15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000
250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
-372,071 -372,071 -372,071 -372,071 -372,071
Multiplo EV/Ingreso 2.1
Enterprise Value 136,272,895
