Se desea simular el proceso de fallas y reparación de unos generadores

eléctricos para estimas el tiempo muerto que en promedio tienen

dichas maquinas.
Se realizaron 200 observaciones registrando los datos del tiempo entre
fallas y del tiempo de reparación, generando las siguientes tablas y
datos para realizar la siguiente simulación

Tiempo entre fallas Número de obseravaciones Probabilidades

0.5 10 0.05
1 12 0.06
1.5 32 0.16
2 66 0.33
2.5 42 0.21
3 38 0.19
Total 200

Observaciones de fallas Numero aleatorio Tiempo entre fallas Hora de falla

1 0.0 0.5 0
2 0.9 3 3
3 0.7 2.5 3
4 0.9 3 6
5 0.3 2 8
6 0.6 2 10
7 0.0 0.5 10
8 0.9 3 13
9 0.4 2 15
10 0.4 2 17
11 0.3 2 19
12 0.5 2 21
13 0.9 3 24
14 0.2 1.5 24
15 0.7 2.5 24
16 0.8 2.5 24
17 0.5 2 26
18 0.5 2 28
19 0.1 1.5 28
20 0.4 2 30
21 0.7 2.5 30
22 0.6 2 32
23 0.2 1.5 32
24 0.3 2 34
25 0.6 2.5 34
26 0.9 3 37
27 1.0 3 40
28 0.6 2.5 40
29 0.2 1.5 40
30 0.2 1.5 40
31 0.9 3 43
32 0.1 1.5 43
33 1.0 3 46
34 0.9 3 49
35 0.5 2 51
36 0.2 1.5 51
37 0.7 2.5 51
38 0.5 2 53
39 0.8 2.5 53
40 0.4 2 55
 Rango Tiempo/
Desde Hasta Falla
0 0.05 0.5
0.05 0.11 1
0.11 0.27 1.5
0.27 0.6 2
0.6 0.81 2.5
0.81 1 3 ESTADISTICOS
PROMEDIO
DESVIACION. EST.
MAX
MIN

Inicio Finalización de
Numero aleatorio Tiempo de reparacion
Reparación Reparación

0.3 1 0 1
0.4 3 3 6
0.7 2 6 8
0.4 3 8 11
0.5 2 11 13
0.9 2 13 15
0.2 1 15 16
0.4 3 16 19
0.2 2 19 21
0.4 2 21 23
0.5 2 23 25
0.1 2 25 27
1.0 3 27 30
0.2 1 30 31
0.5 2 31 33
0.1 2 33 35
1.0 2 35 37
0.3 2 37 39
1.0 1 39 40
0.2 2 40 42
0.6 2 42 44
0.4 2 44 46
0.8 1 46 47
0.3 1 47 48
0.5 2 48 50
0.8 3 50 53
0.6 3 53 56
0.0 2 56 58
0.3 1 58 59
0.6 1 59 60
0.0 3 60 63
0.4 1 63 64
0.5 3 64 67
1.0 3 67 70
0.0 2 70 72
0.1 1 72 73
0.6 2 73 75
0.5 2 75 77
0.2 2 77 79
0.6 2 79 81
 numero de
tiempo entre fallas
observaciones
0.5 10
1 12
1.5 32
2 66
2.5 42
3 38
total 200
Rango
Tiempo entre fallas Número de obseravaciones Probabilidades
Desde
1 56 0.28 0
2 104 0.52 0.28
3 40 0.2 0.8
Total 200

ESTADISTICOS ESTADISTICOS
13 PROMEDIO 7
7 DESVIACION. EST. 3.25
26 MAX 13
1 MIN 1

Tiempo Muerto Tiempo Muerto

1.0 1.0
3.0 2.0
5.0 3.0
5.0 3.5
5.0 3.8
5.0 4.0
6.0 4.3
6.0 4.5
6.0 4.7
6.0 4.8
6.0 4.9
6.0 5.0
6.0 5.1
7.0 5.2
9.0 5.5
11.0 5.8
11.0 6.1
11.0 6.4
12.0 6.7
12.0 7.0
14.0 7.3
14.0 7.6
15.0 7.9
14.0 8.2
16.0 8.5
16.0 8.8
16.0 9.0
18.0 9.4
19.0 9.7
20.0 10.0
20.0 10.4
21.0 10.7
21.0 11.0
21.0 11.3
21.0 11.6
22.0 11.9
24.0 12.2
24.0 12.5
26.0 12.8
26.0 13.2
 tiempo de numero de
reparacion observaciones
1 56
Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10
2 104
3 40 Determine:
total 200 A. Modelo de simulación de 40 días

B .Cálculo del número de corridas

Rango
Tiempo/Repacación
Hasta C .Adecuar el número de corridas
0.28 1
0.8 2 D .Generar 15 réplicas del modelo
1 3

E .Establecer conclusiones y recom

Tíempos muertos promedios

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
 alor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 horas.

ulación de 40 días de operación incluyendo grafico de estabilidad.

mero de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la variable de interés.

mero de corridas según el caso del modelo del literal a.

licas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza.

lusiones y recomendaciones del caso.

5 36 37 38 39 40
Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 horas.

Determine:
Modelo de simulación de 40 días de operación incluyendo grafico de estabilidad.

Cálculo del número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la variable de interés.

Adecuar el número de corridas según el caso del modelo del literal a.

Generar 15 réplicas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza.

Establecer conclusiones y recomendaciones del caso.

ESTADISTICOS
PROMEDIO 11 N S/E
DESVIACIO Cantidad
5
N. EST. de replicas 9.25862646 *
MAX 18
MIN 2 A
No. Tiempo Muerto
1 2.00
2 3.00 Los datos tienen un comportamiento
3 3.67
4 4.00
5 4.00
6 4.17 Tiempo Muer
7 4.29
8 4.63 18.00
9 4.89 16.00
10 5.30
11 5.82 14.00

12 6.25 12.00
13 6.69
14 7.21 10.00

15 7.73 8.00
16 8.19
6.00

4.00

2.00
 10.00

8.00

6.00
17 8.65
18 9.06 4.00
19 9.53
2.00
20 9.95
21 10.38 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02
22 10.77
23 11.13
24 11.54
25 11.92
26 12.27
27 12.59
28 12.89
29 13.24
30 13.57
31 13.90
32 14.22
33 14.52
34 14.85
35 15.17
36 15.47
37 15.76
38 16.05
39 16.33
40 16.60
 tiempo numero de
entre observacio
fallas nes
0.5 10
e estabilidad.
1 12
1.5 32
le de interés. 2 66
2.5 42
a. 3 38
total 200

ALFA 0.10
ERROR 0.5
DESVIACIO 5
T. STUDENT REPLICAS

-1.30363859 = 145.682552 Estado de normalidad

n comportamiento normal.

Tiempo Muerto (HORAS)

01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 93 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 94 0
 numero de
tiempo de
observacio
reparacion
nes
1 56
2 104
3 40
total 200
 tiempo entre numero de tiempo de
fallas observaciones reparacion

0.5 10 1
1 12 2
1.5 32 3
2 66 total
2.5 42
3 38
total 200
Número de Rango
Tiempo entre fallas Probabilidades
obseravaciones Desde Hasta
0.5 10 0.05 0 0.05
1 12 0.06 0.05 0.11
1.5 32 0.16 0.11 0.27
2 66 0.33 0.27 0.6
2.5 42 0.21 0.6 0.81
3 38 0.19 0.81 1
Total 200

Aleatorio
Aleatorio tiempo Tiempo de
Dia Tiempo entre fallas Hora de falla tiempo de
entre fallas reparacion
reparacion
1 0.9 3 6 0.8 3
2 0.7 2.5 3 0.6 2
3 0.5 2 5 0.7 2
4 0.2 1.5 5 0.9 1
5 0.6 2.5 5 0.1 2
6 0.2 1.5 5 0.6 1
7 0.4 2 7 0.4 2
8 0.4 2 9 0.4 2
9 0.5 2 11 0.0 2
10 0.8 2.5 11 0.1 2
11 0.9 3 14 0.3 3
12 0.7 2.5 14 0.7 2
13 0.5 2 16 0.7 2
14 1.0 3 19 0.0 3
15 0.2 1.5 19 0.8 1
16 0.5 2 21 0.0 2
17 0.6 2 23 0.5 2
18 0.5 2 25 0.4 2
19 0.3 1.5 25 0.4 1
20 0.1 1 26 0.1 1
21 0.0 0.5 26 0.7 1
22 0.5 2 28 0.1 2
23 0.5 2 30 0.8 2
24 1.0 3 33 1.0 3
25 0.3 2 35 0.7 2
26 0.1 1.5 35 0.1 1
27 0.2 1.5 35 0.1 1
28 0.3 2 37 0.2 2
29 0.4 2 39 0.7 2
30 1.0 3 42 0.5 3
31 0.3 2 44 0.6 2
32 0.4 2 46 0.0 2
33 0.7 2.5 46 0.8 2
34 0.8 2.5 46 0.1 2
35 0.5 2 48 0.8 2
36 0.8 2.5 48 0.6 2
37 0.1 1.5 48 0.1 1
38 0.7 2.5 48 0.8 2
39 0.7 2.5 48 0.6 2
40 0.7 2.5 48 0.3 2
41 0.8 3 51 0.7 3
42 0.3 2 53 0.1 1
43 0.4 2 55 0.5 2
44 0.9 3 58 0.6 3
45 0.0 0.5 58 0.1 1
46 0.1 1.5 58 0.9 1
47 0.4 2 60 0.6 2
48 0.7 2.5 60 0.8 2
49 0.4 2 62 0.5 2
50 0.3 2 64 0.9 2
51 0.8 2.5 64 1.0 2
52 0.7 2.5 64 0.0 2
53 0.4 2 66 0.2 2
54 0.3 1.5 66 1.0 1
55 0.3 2 68 0.6 2
56 0.7 2.5 68 0.9 2
57 0.9 3 71 0.1 3
58 0.5 2 73 0.2 2
59 0.5 2 75 0.4 2
60 0.6 2.5 75 0.7 2
61 0.3 2 77 0.3 2
62 0.7 2.5 77 0.9 2
63 0.8 2.5 77 0.6 2
64 0.1 1.5 77 0.9 1
65 0.1 1 78 0.7 1
66 0.1 1 79 0.6 1
67 0.7 2.5 79 0.2 2
68 0.4 2 81 0.1 2
69 1.0 3 84 0.5 3
70 0.5 2 86 0.0 2
71 0.1 1.5 86 0.3 1
72 0.1 1 87 0.9 1
73 0.2 1.5 87 0.0 1
74 0.1 1 88 0.7 1
75 0.2 1.5 88 0.3 1
76 0.7 2.5 88 0.9 2
77 0.5 2 90 1.0 2
78 0.1 1.5 90 0.3 1
79 0.5 2 92 0.8 2
80 0.6 2 94 0.2 2
81 0.6 2 96 0.3 2
82 0.2 1.5 96 0.2 1
83 0.8 2.5 96 0.6 3
84 1.0 3 99 0.3 3
85 0.2 1.5 99 0.7 1
86 0.7 2.5 99 0.7 2
87 0.5 2 101 0.2 2
88 0.5 2 103 1.0 2
89 0.7 2.5 103 0.5 2
90 0.9 3 106 0.2 3
91 0.8 3 109 0.9 3
92 0.9 3 112 0.4 3
93 0.5 2 114 0.8 2
94 0.4 2 116 0.2 2
95 1.0 3 119 0.7 3
96 0.4 2 121 0.8 2
97 0.9 3 124 0.0 3
98 0.2 1.5 124 0.1 1
99 0.8 2.5 124 0.4 2
100 0.1 1.5 124 0.3 1
101 0.6 2.5 124 0.3 2
102 0.3 1.5 124 0.4 1
103 0.9 3 127 0.7 3
104 0.6 2 129 0.6 2
105 0.8 3 132 0.5 3
106 0.0 0.5 132 0.1 1
107 0.1 1 133 0.5 1
108 0.0 0.5 133 0.0 1
109 0.8 3 136 0.6 3
110 0.5 2 138 0.5 2
111 0.1 1 139 0.2 1
112 0.9 3 142 0.5 3
113 0.7 2.5 142 0.1 2
114 0.5 2 144 0.4 2
115 0.9 3 147 0.1 3
116 0.5 2 149 0.9 2
117 0.9 3 152 0.6 3
118 0.0 0.5 152 0.5 1
119 0.7 2.5 152 0.7 2
120 0.0 0.5 152 0.4 1
121 0.7 2.5 152 0.7 2
122 0.0 0.5 152 0.3 1
123 0.8 2.5 152 0.8 2
124 0.2 1.5 152 0.7 1
125 0.9 3 155 0.0 3
126 0.9 3 158 0.9 3
127 0.3 2 160 0.2 2
128 0.8 2.5 160 0.9 2
129 0.4 2 162 0.5 2
130 0.9 3 165 0.6 3
131 1.0 3 168 0.6 3
132 0.4 2 170 0.8 2
133 0.4 2 172 0.6 2
134 0.8 2.5 172 0.1 2
135 0.8 2.5 172 0.4 2
136 0.8 3 175 0.4 3
137 0.1 1.5 175 0.4 1
138 0.0 0.5 175 0.6 1
139 0.3 2 177 0.7 2
140 0.2 1.5 177 0.8 1
141 0.3 1.5 177 0.6 1
142 1.0 3 180 0.8 3
143 0.4 2 182 0.6 2
144 0.9 3 185 0.2 3
145 0.8 3 188 0.7 3
numero de
observacio
nes
56
104
40
200

Tiempo Tiempo de Número de Probabilida Rango Tiempo

entre Falla reparacion obseravaciones d Desde Hasta Reparación
0.5 1 56 0.28 0 0.28 1
1 2 104 0.52 0.28 0.8 2
1.5 3 40 0.2 0.8 1 3
2 Total 200
2.5
3 ESTADISTICOS ESTADISTICOS
PROMEDIO 53.7 PROMEDIO 29.84
DESVIACION 27.79 DESVIACION 13.90
MAX 99.0 MAX 53.7
MIN 3.00 MIN 3.00
Hora fin
Hora Inicio Tiempo
de NO. Tiempo
Reparación Muerto
Reparación Muerto
6 9 3.0 1 3.0
9 11 8.0 2 5.5 tiempo muer
11 13 8.0 3 6.3 60.0
13 14 9.0 4 7.0
14 16 11.0 5 7.8 50.0
16 17 12.0 6 8.5
17 19 12.0 7 9.0 40.0
19 21 12.0 8 9.4
21 23 12.0 9 9.7 30.0
23 25 14.0 10 10.1
25 28 14.0 11 10.5 20.0
28 30 16.0 12 10.9
30 32 16.0 13 11.3 10.0
32 35 16.0 14 11.6
35 36 17.0 15 12.0 0.0
36 38 17.0 16 12.3 1 8 15 22 29 36 4

38 40 17.0 17 12.6
40 42 17.0 18 12.8
42 43 18.0 19 13.1
43 44 18.0 20 13.4
44 45 19.0 21 13.6
45 47 19.0 22 13.9
47 49 19.0 23 14.1
49 52 19.0 24 14.3
52 54 19.0 25 14.5
54 55 20.0 26 14.7
55 56 21.0 27 14.9
56 58 21.0 28 15.1
58 60 21.0 29 15.3
60 63 21.0 30 15.5
63 65 21.0 31 15.7
65 67 21.0 32 15.9
67 69 23.0 33 16.1
69 71 25.0 34 16.4
71 73 25.0 35 16.6
73 75 27.0 36 16.9
75 76 28.0 37 17.2
76 78 30.0 38 17.5
78 80 32.0 39 17.9
80 82 34.0 40 18.3
82 85 34.0 41 18.7
85 86 33.0 42 19.0
86 88 33.0 43 19.3
88 91 33.0 44 19.7
91 92 34.0 45 20.0
92 93 35.0 46 20.3
93 95 35.0 47 20.6
95 97 37.0 48 21.0
97 99 37.0 49 21.3
99 101 37.0 50 21.6
101 103 39.0 51 21.9
103 105 41.0 52 22.3
105 107 41.0 53 22.7
107 108 42.0 54 23.0
108 110 42.0 55 23.4
110 112 44.0 56 23.7
112 115 44.0 57 24.1
115 117 44.0 58 24.4
117 119 44.0 59 24.8
119 121 46.0 60 25.1
121 123 46.0 61 25.5
123 125 48.0 62 25.8
125 127 50.0 63 26.2
127 128 51.0 64 26.6
128 129 51.0 65 27.0
129 130 51.0 66 27.3
130 132 53.0 67 27.7
132 134 53.0 68 28.1
134 137 53.0 69 28.4
137 139 53.0 70 28.8
139 140 54.0 71 29.2
140 141 54.0 72 29.5
141 142 55.0 73 29.8
142 143 55.0 74 30.2
143 144 56.0 75 30.5
144 146 58.0 76 30.9
146 148 58.0 77 31.2
148 149 59.0 78 31.6
149 151 59.0 79 31.9
151 153 59.0 80 32.3
153 155 59.0 81 32.6
155 156 60.0 82 33.0
156 159 63.0 83 33.3
159 162 63.0 84 33.7
162 163 64.0 85 34.0
163 165 66.0 86 34.4
165 167 66.0 87 34.8
167 169 66.0 88 35.1
169 171 68.0 89 35.5
171 174 68.0 90 35.8
174 177 68.0 91 36.2
177 180 68.0 92 36.5
180 182 68.0 93 36.9
182 184 68.0 94 37.2
184 187 68.0 95 37.5
187 189 68.0 96 37.9
189 192 68.0 97 38.2
192 193 69.0 98 38.5
193 195 71.0 99 38.8
195 196 72.0 100 39.1
196 198 74.0 101 39.5
198 199 75.0 102 39.8
199 202 75.0 103 40.2
202 204 75.0 104 40.5
204 207 75.0 105 40.8
207 208 76.0 106 41.2
208 209 76.0 107 41.5
209 210 77.0 108 41.8
210 213 77.0 109 42.1
213 215 77.0 110 42.5
215 216 77.0 111 42.8
216 219 77.0 112 43.1
219 221 79.0 113 43.4
221 223 79.0 114 43.7
223 226 79.0 115 44.0
226 228 79.0 116 44.3
228 231 79.0 117 44.6
231 232 80.0 118 44.9
232 234 82.0 119 45.2
234 235 83.0 120 45.5
235 237 85.0 121 45.9
237 238 86.0
238 240 88.0 2 46.5
240 241 89.0 3 46.9
241 244 89.0 4 47.2
244 247 89.0 5 47.5
247 249 89.0 6 47.9
249 251 91.0 7 48.2
251 253 91.0 8 48.5
253 256 91.0 9 48.9
256 259 91.0 10 49.2
259 261 91.0 11 49.5
261 263 91.0 12 49.8
263 265 93.0 13 50.1
265 267 95.0 14 50.5
267 270 95.0 15 50.8
270 271 96.0 16 51.1
271 272 97.0 17 51.5
272 274 97.0 18 51.8
274 275 98.0 19 52.1
275 276 99.0 20 52.5
276 279 99.0 21 52.8
279 281 99.0 22 53.1
281 284 99.0 23 53.4
284 287 99.0 24 53.7
 ALFA 0.10
ERROR 0.5
DESVIACION 0

Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 horas.

Determine:
A. Modelo de simulación de 40 días de operación incluyendo grafic

B .Cálculo del número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la va

C .Adecuar el número de corridas según el caso del modelo del lite

D .Generar 15 réplicas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de confia

E .Establecer conclusiones y recomendaciones del caso.

tiempo muerto PROMEDIO (HORAS)

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
1 8 1 5 2 2 2 9 3 6 4 3 5 0 5 7 6 4 7 1 7 8 8 5 9 2 9 9 1 0 61 1 31 2 01 2 71 3 41 4 1
or de 0,5 horas.

ión incluyendo grafico de estabilidad.

para estabilizar la variable de interés.

aso del modelo del literal a.

el intervalo de confianza.

es del caso.
 1 2 3 4 5
ESTADISTICOS
PROMEDIO 28.69 25.4 30.5 26.9 27.3
DESVIACION 14.65 15.235495775 14.5546403 13.2272587 15.3444443
MAX 54.1 52.6 52.9 48.4 53.2
MIN 2.00 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo
Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto
NO.
promedio promedio promedio promedio promedio
(Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas)
1 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
2 4.0 1.5 3.0 2.5 3.0
3 4.7 2.0 3.3 3.0 3.3
4 5.0 2.8 4.0 3.5 3.5
5 5.4 3.2 4.6 3.8 4.0
6 5.7 3.5 5.2 4.0 4.3
7 5.9 3.7 5.7 4.1 4.6
8 6.3 4.1 6.1 4.4 4.8
9 6.8 4.6 6.4 4.6 4.9
10 7.2 4.9 6.9 4.9 5.0
11 7.5 5.2 7.3 5.4 5.2
12 7.9 5.4 7.6 5.8 5.3
13 8.2 5.7 7.8 6.2 5.5
14 8.6 5.9 8.2 6.7 5.7
15 9.1 6.1 8.5 7.3 6.1
16 9.6 6.3 8.9 7.9 6.4
17 9.9 6.5 9.3 8.5 6.8
18 10.3 6.7 9.6 9.0 7.2
19 10.6 6.9 10.0 9.6 7.6
20 10.9 7.2 10.4 10.1 8.1
21 11.1 7.3 10.9 10.6 8.5
22 11.4 7.5 11.3 11.0 9.0
23 11.7 7.6 11.8 11.4 9.3
24 12.0 7.8 12.3 11.9 9.7
25 12.2 8.0 12.8 12.3 10.0
26 12.5 8.2 13.3 12.7 10.3
27 12.7 8.5 13.9 13.1 10.6
28 13.0 8.8 14.4 13.5 10.9
29 13.3 9.1 14.9 13.9 11.2
30 13.5 9.5 15.5 14.3 11.5
31 13.8 9.8 16.0 14.7 11.9
32 14.1 10.1 16.4 15.0 12.3
33 14.3 10.5 16.9 15.4 12.6
34 14.6 10.8 17.4 15.7 13.0
35 15.0 11.1 17.9 16.0 13.3
36 15.3 11.3 18.4 16.4 13.7
37 15.7 11.6 18.8 16.6 14.1
38 16.0 11.9 19.3 16.9 14.5
39 16.3 12.2 19.7 17.2 14.8
40 16.7 12.4 20.2 17.5 15.2
41 17.1 12.7 20.6 17.8 15.5
42 17.5 13.0 21.0 18.0 15.8
43 17.9 13.3 21.4 18.2 16.0
44 18.3 13.6 21.8 18.5 16.4
45 18.7 13.9 22.3 18.8 16.7
46 19.2 14.2 22.7 19.0 17.0
47 19.6 14.6 23.1 19.3 17.3
48 19.9 14.9 23.6 19.6 17.7
49 20.3 15.3 24.0 19.8 18.0
50 20.7 15.6 24.4 20.1 18.4
51 21.0 16.0 24.9 20.4 18.7
52 21.4 16.3 25.3 20.7 19.1
53 21.7 16.6 25.7 20.9 19.4
54 22.0 17.0 26.0 21.2 19.7
55 22.4 17.3 26.4 21.6 20.1
56 22.7 17.7 26.8 21.9 20.5
57 23.0 18.0 27.1 22.2 20.8
58 23.3 18.3 27.5 22.6 21.2
59 23.7 18.6 27.8 22.9 21.5
60 24.0 19.0 28.2 23.3 21.9
61 24.4 19.3 28.6 23.7 22.2
62 24.8 19.7 28.9 24.1 22.6
63 25.1 20.1 29.2 24.4 22.9
64 25.5 20.4 29.5 24.8 23.3
65 25.8 20.8 29.8 25.2 23.6
66 26.2 21.2 30.1 25.6 24.0
67 26.5 21.5 30.4 25.9 24.3
68 26.8 21.9 30.7 26.3 24.7
69 27.1 22.3 31.0 26.6 25.0
70 27.4 22.7 31.3 27.0 25.4
71 27.7 23.1 31.6 27.3 25.8
72 28.0 23.5 31.9 27.6 26.1
73 28.3 23.9 32.2 27.9 26.5
74 28.6 24.3 32.6 28.2 26.9
75 29.0 24.6 32.9 28.6 27.3
76 29.3 25.0 33.2 28.9 27.6
77 29.6 25.4 33.6 29.2 28.1
78 30.0 25.8 33.9 29.5 28.5
79 30.4 26.2 34.2 29.8 28.9
80 30.8 26.7 34.5 30.1 29.3
81 31.1 27.1 34.8 30.4 29.7
 82 31.5 27.5 35.1 30.7 30.0
83 31.9 27.9 35.4 31.0 30.5
84 32.3 28.4 35.7 31.3 30.9
85 32.6 28.8 36.0 31.6 31.3
86 33.0 29.2 36.3 31.9 31.7
87 33.4 29.6 36.6 32.1 32.1
88 33.8 30.0 36.9 32.4 32.5
89 34.1 30.4 37.2 32.7 33.0
90 34.5 30.9 37.5 32.9 33.4
91 34.8 31.3 37.8 33.2 33.8
92 35.2 31.7 38.1 33.4 34.2
93 35.5 32.1 38.4 33.7 34.6
94 35.8 32.6 38.7 34.0 35.1
95 36.2 33.0 39.0 34.3 35.5
96 36.5 33.5 39.3 34.6 35.9
97 36.8 33.9 39.6 34.8 36.3
98 37.2 34.3 39.9 35.1 36.7
99 37.6 34.7 40.2 35.4 37.2
100 37.9 35.2 40.5 35.6 37.6
101 38.3 35.6 40.7 35.9 38.0
102 38.7 36.0 41.0 36.2 38.4
103 39.0 36.4 41.3 36.4 38.8
104 39.4 36.8 41.6 36.7 39.2
105 39.7 37.2 41.9 37.0 39.6
106 40.1 37.6 42.2 37.3 40.0
107 40.5 38.1 42.4 37.6 40.4
108 40.8 38.5 42.7 37.8 40.8
109 41.2 38.9 43.0 38.1 41.1
110 41.6 39.3 43.3 38.4 41.5
111 42.0 39.7 43.6 38.6 41.9
112 42.3 40.1 43.9 38.9 42.3
113 42.7 40.5 44.1 39.2 42.7
114 43.1 40.9 44.4 39.5 43.0
115 43.4 41.2 44.7 39.7 43.4
116 43.8 41.6 44.9 40.0 43.8
117 44.1 42.0 45.2 40.3 44.1
118 44.5 42.3 45.5 40.6 44.5
119 44.9 42.7 45.7 40.9 44.8
120 45.2 43.1 46.0 41.2 45.1
121 45.6 43.4 46.3 41.5 45.5
122 46.0 43.8 46.5 41.8 45.8
123 46.3 44.2 46.8 42.0 46.1
124 46.7 44.5 47.1 42.3 46.5
125 47.0 44.9 47.3 42.6 46.8
126 47.4 45.3 47.6 42.9 47.1
127 47.7 45.6 47.8 43.2 47.4
128 48.1 46.0 48.1 43.5 47.8
129 48.5 46.3 48.4 43.8 48.1
130 48.8 46.7 48.7 44.1 48.4
131 49.2 47.1 48.9 44.4 48.7
132 49.6 47.4 49.2 44.7 49.1
133 49.9 47.8 49.5 45.0 49.4
134 50.3 48.2 49.8 45.3 49.7
135 50.6 48.6 50.0 45.5 50.0
136 51.0 49.0 50.3 45.8 50.4
137 51.3 49.4 50.6 46.1 50.7
138 51.7 49.8 50.9 46.4 51.0
139 52.0 50.2 51.2 46.7 51.3
140 52.4 50.6 51.5 46.9 51.6
141 52.7 51.0 51.7 47.2 51.9
142 53.1 51.4 52.0 47.5 52.2
143 53.4 51.8 52.3 47.8 52.6
144 53.7 52.2 52.6 48.1 52.9
145 54.1 52.6 52.9 48.4 53.2
39.7
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

21.5 27.1 27.7 20.8 34.2 24.8 24.1 25.3

10.7969552 11.8533919 12.7851909 12.1231869 18.0863455 13.3338628 12.8328769 14.595629
40.2 47.4 49.9 42.4 64.6 48.9 46.3 51.8
1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0
Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo Tiempo
Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto Muerto
promedio promedio promedio promedio promedio promedio promedio promedio
(Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas) (Horas)
1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0
2.5 3.0 2.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.0
3.0 4.0 2.7 1.7 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.3
3.5 5.0 3.5 1.8 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.0
3.8 5.8 4.4 1.8 4.2 4.4 3.4 3.4
4.0 6.7 5.0 2.3 4.7 4.7 3.8 3.8
4.1 7.3 5.7 2.7 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.1
4.5 7.8 6.3 3.0 5.3 5.4 4.9 4.5
5.0 8.1 6.8 3.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 4.9
5.4 8.6 7.2 3.4 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.2
5.8 9.0 7.6 3.7 6.5 6.3 5.7 5.5
6.3 9.3 8.0 4.2 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.8
6.6 9.8 8.3 4.5 7.4 7.0 6.2 6.1
6.9 10.1 8.7 4.9 7.9 7.4 6.5 6.3
7.2 10.5 9.2 5.1 8.3 7.7 6.8 6.5
7.4 11.0 9.6 5.4 8.8 8.1 7.1 6.8
7.6 11.4 10.0 5.7 9.4 8.4 7.4 7.0
7.8 11.9 10.3 6.0 9.9 8.7 7.6 7.2
8.0 12.3 10.6 6.3 10.4 8.9 7.9 7.4
8.2 12.7 11.0 6.6 10.8 9.2 8.2 7.6
8.3 13.0 11.3 6.9 11.3 9.5 8.5 7.9
8.5 13.4 11.7 7.1 11.8 9.8 8.7 8.2
8.7 13.7 12.1 7.4 12.3 10.0 9.0 8.5
8.9 14.0 12.6 7.6 12.9 10.3 9.2 8.8
9.2 14.4 13.1 7.8 13.4 10.5 9.4 9.1
9.4 14.7 13.6 8.0 13.8 10.7 9.5 9.3
9.7 15.0 14.1 8.2 14.2 10.8 9.7 9.7
9.9 15.3 14.5 8.4 14.6 11.0 10.0 10.0
10.1 15.6 14.9 8.6 15.0 11.2 10.2 10.2
10.3 16.0 15.4 8.8 15.5 11.4 10.5 10.5
10.5 16.3 15.9 9.0 16.0 11.5 10.8 10.8
10.7 16.6 16.4 9.2 16.5 11.8 11.1 11.1
10.9 16.9 16.9 9.4 17.1 12.0 11.4 11.4
11.1 17.1 17.4 9.6 17.6 12.3 11.7 11.7
11.4 17.4 17.9 9.7 18.1 12.5 12.0 12.0
11.7 17.7 18.3 9.9 18.6 12.8 12.4 12.3
11.9 17.9 18.7 10.1 19.1 13.0 12.7 12.6
12.3 18.2 19.1 10.3 19.6 13.3 13.0 12.9
12.6 18.4 19.5 10.5 20.1 13.5 13.3 13.2
13.0 18.7 19.9 10.7 20.6 13.9 13.7 13.5
13.3 18.9 20.2 10.9 21.1 14.2 14.0 13.8
13.6 19.2 20.5 11.1 21.6 14.5 14.3 14.1
13.9 19.4 20.8 11.4 22.1 14.8 14.6 14.4
14.2 19.6 21.1 11.7 22.5 15.1 14.9 14.7
14.5 19.9 21.4 11.9 23.0 15.4 15.2 14.9
14.8 20.1 21.7 12.2 23.5 15.7 15.5 15.2
15.0 20.4 22.0 12.5 24.0 16.0 15.8 15.5
15.3 20.8 22.3 12.8 24.4 16.2 16.1 15.8
15.5 21.1 22.6 13.1 24.9 16.5 16.4 16.1
15.8 21.4 22.9 13.4 25.4 16.7 16.7 16.4
16.0 21.6 23.2 13.6 25.8 17.0 17.0 16.7
16.2 21.9 23.5 13.9 26.2 17.2 17.3 17.1
16.5 22.2 23.7 14.2 26.6 17.5 17.7 17.4
16.7 22.5 24.0 14.5 27.0 17.8 18.0 17.7
17.0 22.7 24.2 14.7 27.4 18.0 18.3 18.0
17.2 23.0 24.5 15.0 27.8 18.3 18.6 18.3
17.5 23.2 24.7 15.2 28.2 18.5 18.9 18.7
17.8 23.5 25.0 15.5 28.6 18.8 19.3 19.0
18.1 23.8 25.2 15.7 29.0 19.1 19.6 19.3
18.3 24.0 25.4 16.0 29.4 19.3 19.9 19.7
18.6 24.3 25.6 16.2 29.9 19.6 20.2 20.0
18.8 24.5 25.8 16.4 30.3 19.9 20.6 20.3
19.1 24.8 26.0 16.7 30.7 20.2 20.9 20.7
19.3 25.0 26.2 17.0 31.1 20.5 21.2 21.0
19.5 25.3 26.4 17.3 31.6 20.8 21.6 21.4
19.7 25.5 26.6 17.6 32.0 21.1 21.9 21.7
20.0 25.8 26.9 17.9 32.4 21.4 22.3 22.1
20.2 26.0 27.1 18.2 32.8 21.8 22.6 22.5
20.4 26.2 27.3 18.5 33.2 22.2 23.0 22.8
20.6 26.4 27.5 18.8 33.6 22.6 23.3 23.2
20.9 26.6 27.7 19.1 34.0 22.9 23.7 23.6
21.2 26.9 27.9 19.4 34.4 23.3 24.0 24.0
21.4 27.2 28.2 19.7 34.8 23.7 24.3 24.4
21.7 27.4 28.4 20.1 35.2 24.0 24.7 24.7
22.0 27.7 28.6 20.4 35.7 24.4 25.0 25.1
22.3 27.9 28.8 20.8 36.1 24.8 25.3 25.4
22.5 28.1 29.1 21.1 36.5 25.2 25.6 25.8
22.8 28.4 29.3 21.5 36.9 25.6 25.9 26.1
23.0 28.6 29.5 21.8 37.3 26.0 26.3 26.5
23.2 28.9 29.8 22.1 37.7 26.4 26.6 26.8
23.4 29.1 30.0 22.5 38.1 26.8 26.9 27.2
23.7 29.4 30.2 22.8 38.5 27.1 27.2 27.5
23.9 29.7 30.5 23.1 38.8 27.5 27.5 27.8
24.2 29.9 30.7 23.5 39.2 28.0 27.8 28.2
24.4 30.2 30.9 23.8 39.6 28.3 28.1 28.6
24.7 30.5 31.2 24.1 40.0 28.7 28.4 28.9
25.0 30.8 31.4 24.4 40.4 29.1 28.7 29.3
25.3 31.1 31.6 24.8 40.8 29.5 29.0 29.7
25.5 31.3 31.8 25.1 41.2 29.8 29.3 30.0
25.8 31.6 32.1 25.5 41.6 30.2 29.6 30.4
26.1 31.9 32.3 25.8 42.0 30.6 29.9 30.8
26.4 32.2 32.6 26.2 42.4 30.9 30.2 31.2
26.6 32.4 32.8 26.5 42.8 31.3 30.4 31.6
26.9 32.7 33.1 26.8 43.2 31.6 30.7 32.0
27.1 33.0 33.4 27.1 43.6 32.0 31.0 32.4
27.4 33.2 33.7 27.5 44.0 32.3 31.3 32.7
27.7 33.5 34.0 27.8 44.4 32.6 31.5 33.1
28.0 33.8 34.3 28.1 44.8 33.0 31.8 33.5
28.2 34.0 34.6 28.4 45.2 33.3 32.1 33.9
28.5 34.3 34.9 28.7 45.6 33.6 32.3 34.3
28.8 34.6 35.2 29.0 46.0 33.9 32.6 34.7
29.0 34.9 35.5 29.3 46.4 34.2 32.9 35.0
29.3 35.1 35.9 29.6 46.7 34.5 33.2 35.4
29.6 35.4 36.2 30.0 47.2 34.8 33.5 35.8
29.8 35.7 36.5 30.3 47.6 35.1 33.8 36.2
30.1 35.9 36.8 30.6 48.0 35.4 34.0 36.6
30.3 36.2 37.1 30.9 48.4 35.7 34.3 37.0
30.6 36.5 37.4 31.2 48.9 36.0 34.6 37.4
30.8 36.8 37.7 31.5 49.3 36.4 34.9 37.8
31.1 37.0 38.1 31.8 49.8 36.7 35.2 38.2
31.3 37.3 38.4 32.1 50.2 37.0 35.6 38.6
31.5 37.6 38.7 32.4 50.7 37.3 35.9 38.9
31.8 37.9 39.0 32.7 51.1 37.6 36.2 39.3
32.0 38.2 39.4 33.0 51.6 37.9 36.5 39.7
32.2 38.5 39.7 33.3 52.0 38.3 36.8 40.1
32.5 38.8 40.0 33.6 52.4 38.6 37.1 40.5
32.7 39.1 40.4 33.9 52.9 38.9 37.4 40.8
32.9 39.4 40.7 34.2 53.3 39.3 37.7 41.2
33.2 39.7 41.1 34.5 53.7 39.6 38.0 41.6
33.4 40.1 41.4 34.8 54.2 39.9 38.3 42.0
33.7 40.4 41.8 35.1 54.6 40.3 38.6 42.4
34.0 40.7 42.1 35.4 55.0 40.6 38.9 42.8
34.2 41.0 42.4 35.7 55.5 40.9 39.2 43.2
34.5 41.3 42.8 35.9 55.9 41.3 39.5 43.6
34.7 41.6 43.1 36.2 56.3 41.6 39.8 44.0
35.0 41.9 43.5 36.5 56.7 41.9 40.1 44.4
35.2 42.2 43.8 36.8 57.2 42.3 40.4 44.8
35.5 42.5 44.2 37.1 57.6 42.6 40.7 45.2
35.7 42.8 44.5 37.4 58.0 43.0 41.0 45.7
36.0 43.1 44.8 37.7 58.4 43.3 41.3 46.1
36.2 43.3 45.2 38.0 58.8 43.6 41.6 46.5
36.5 43.6 45.5 38.3 59.3 44.0 42.0 46.8
36.8 43.9 45.8 38.6 59.7 44.4 42.3 47.2
37.1 44.2 46.2 38.9 60.1 44.7 42.6 47.6
37.3 44.5 46.5 39.2 60.5 45.1 42.9 48.0
37.6 44.8 46.8 39.5 60.9 45.5 43.3 48.4
37.9 45.0 47.2 39.8 61.3 45.8 43.6 48.8
38.2 45.3 47.5 40.2 61.8 46.2 43.9 49.1
38.5 45.6 47.9 40.5 62.2 46.6 44.3 49.5
38.8 45.9 48.2 40.8 62.6 47.0 44.6 49.9
39.0 46.2 48.5 41.1 63.0 47.4 45.0 50.3
39.3 46.5 48.9 41.4 63.4 47.7 45.3 50.6
39.6 46.8 49.2 41.8 63.8 48.1 45.7 51.0
39.9 47.1 49.6 42.1 64.2 48.5 46.0 51.4
40.2 47.4 49.9 42.4 64.6 48.9 46.3 51.8
 14 15

33.8 24.2 26.82 Promedio

16.0614342 11.2134543 1.97628261 Desviacion est.
60.3 43.0
2.0 1.0
Tiempo Tiempo
Muerto Muerto
promedio promedio
(Horas) (Horas)
2.0 1.0
3.0 2.0 Promedio 26.82
3.3 3.0 Desv. Std. 1.97628261
3.5 3.5 Replicas 15
4.0 4.2 Alfa 0.10
4.5 4.7 Grados libertad 14
5.1 5.0 T, student -1.34503037
5.9 5.3
6.7 5.7
7.5 6.0
8.3 6.3
9.1 6.7
9.8 7.2
10.5 7.9
11.1 8.4
11.8 8.9
12.4 9.4 Promedio
12.9 9.8 28.69
13.4 10.2 25.4
13.9 10.5 30.5
14.4 10.8 26.9
14.8 11.2 27.3
15.3 11.5 21.5
15.7 11.8 27.1
16.2 12.1 27.7
16.7 12.4 20.8
17.1 12.6 34.2
17.5 12.9 24.8
17.9 13.2 24.1
18.3 13.5 25.3
18.6 13.9 33.8
18.9 14.2 24.2
19.3 14.5
19.6 14.9
20.0 15.2
20.4 15.5
20.8 15.8
21.1 16.1
21.5 16.3
21.9 16.6
22.3 16.8
22.8 17.1
23.3 17.3
23.8 17.6
24.2 17.9
24.7 18.1
25.1 18.3
25.5 18.6
26.0 18.8
26.4 19.0
26.8 19.2
27.2 19.4
27.6 19.6
27.9 19.8
28.3 20.1
28.7 20.3
29.0 20.6
29.4 20.8
29.7 21.1
30.1 21.3
30.4 21.6
30.8 21.8
31.2 22.1
31.6 22.3
32.0 22.6
32.4 22.8
32.7 23.0
33.1 23.3
33.5 23.5
33.9 23.7
34.2 23.9
34.6 24.2
34.9 24.4
35.3 24.6
35.6 24.8
35.9 25.1
36.2 25.3
36.5 25.5
36.9 25.7
37.2 25.9
37.5 26.1
37.8 26.4
38.2 26.6
38.5 26.8
38.9 27.0
39.2 27.3
39.6 27.5
39.9 27.7
40.3 28.0
40.6 28.2
41.0 28.5
41.3 28.8
41.7 29.0
42.0 29.3
42.3 29.6
42.7 29.9
43.0 30.2
43.3 30.5
43.6 30.8
44.0 31.1
44.3 31.4
44.7 31.7
45.0 32.0
45.4 32.3
45.7 32.6
46.0 32.9
46.4 33.2
46.7 33.5
47.1 33.8
47.4 34.1
47.7 34.3
48.1 34.6
48.5 34.9
48.8 35.2
49.2 35.4
49.6 35.7
50.0 36.0
50.3 36.2
50.7 36.5
51.1 36.7
51.4 37.0
51.8 37.2
52.1 37.5
52.5 37.7
52.8 38.0
53.2 38.2
53.6 38.4
53.9 38.7
54.3 38.9
54.7 39.1
55.1 39.4
55.5 39.6
55.8 39.8
56.2 40.1
56.6 40.3
57.0 40.6
57.4 40.8
57.7 41.1
58.1 41.4
58.5 41.6
58.9 41.9
59.2 42.2
59.6 42.4
60.0 42.7
60.3 43.0
Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 horas.

Determine:
A. Modelo de simulación de 40 días de operación incluyendo grafico de esta

B .Cálculo del número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la variable de

C .Adecuar el número de corridas según el caso del modelo del literal a.

D .Generar 15 réplicas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza.

E .Establecer conclusiones y recomendaciones del caso.

 horas.

uyendo grafico de estabilidad.

tabilizar la variable de interés.

modelo del literal a.

valo de confianza.

aso.
Tiempo Muerto Promedio
2.00 28.69
3.00 25.4
3.67 30.5
4.00 26.9
4.00 27.3
4.17 21.5
4.29 27.1
4.63 27.7
4.89 20.8
5.30 34.2
5.82 24.8
6.25 24.1
6.69 25.3
7.21 33.8
7.73 24.2
8.19
8.65
9.06
9.53
9.95
10.38
10.77
11.13
11.54
11.92
12.27
12.59
12.89
13.24
13.57
13.90
14.22
14.52
14.85
15.17
15.47
15.76
16.05
16.33
16.60