ESTUDIANTE: VALERIA ANDREA ZUBIETA MARTINEZ
REALIZAR EL PRONOSTICO CON SIPPER Y SUAVIZADO EXPONENCIAL Y MINIMOS CUADRADOS CO
SIPPER
x y
k AÑO DEMANDA Y (Y-y) (Y-y)2 SD
1 2010 180.14 51.03 -129.11 16668.18
2 2011 208.24 112.69 -95.55 9130.22
3 2012 240.72 174.34 -66.38 4406.69
4 2013 278.27 235.99 -42.28 1787.70
5 2014 321.69 297.65 -24.04 577.82
6 2015 359.30 -12.57 157.92
371.87
77.65
7 2016 429.88 420.96 -8.92 79.63
8 2017 496.94 482.61 -14.33 205.37
9 2018 574.46 544.27 -30.20 912.00
10 2019 664.08 605.92 -58.16 3382.75
11 2020 667.57 -100.10 10020.76
767.68
12 2021 887.44 729.23 -158.21 25029.49
72358.51
SUAVIZADO EXPONENCIAL 0,2
Xi Xi-1
x y
K AÑO DEMANDA Y (Y-y) (Y-y)^2 ERROR SD
1 2010 180.14 451.78 271.65 73792.5009
2 2011 208.24 397.45 189.22 35803.0675
3 2012 240.72 359.61 118.89 14134.495
4 2013 278.27 335.83 57.56 3312.94632
5 2014 321.69 324.32 2.64 6.94679293
6 2015 371.87 323.79 -48.07 2311.15166
198.780043
7 2016 429.88 333.41 -96.47 9306.66853
8 2017 496.94 352.70 -144.24 20804.6537
9 2018 574.46 381.55 -192.91 37215.5941
10 2019 664.08 420.13 -243.95 59510.2411
11 2020 767.68 468.92 -298.75 89254.189
12 2021 887.44 528.67 -358.76 128709.612
474162.067
1 ALFA COEFICIENTE DE SUAVIZAMIENTO
2 PROMEDIO DATOS 451.78
𝐘=𝐗𝐢∗∝+𝐗_(𝐢−𝟏
3 MODELO MATEMATICO
𝑌2011=180,14∗0,2+451,78∗(1−0,2)
SUAVIZADO EXPONENCIAL 0,89
Xi Xi-1
x y
K AÑO DEMANDA Y (Y-y) (Y-y)^2 ERROR SD
1 2010 180.14 451.78 271.65 73792.5009
2 2011 208.24 210.02 1.78 3.16853053
3 2012 240.72 208.43 -32.29 1042.59254
4 2013 278.27 237.17 -41.10 1689.57817
5 2014 321.69 273.75 -47.93 2297.5126
6 2015 371.87 316.41 -55.46 3075.31709
107.733596
7 2016 429.88 365.77 -64.11 4110.30171
8 2017 496.94 422.83 -74.11 5492.82614
9 2018 574.46 488.79 -85.68 7340.27174
10 2019 664.08 565.04 -99.04 9809.0707
11 2020 767.68 653.19 -114.49 13108.2145
12 2021 887.44 755.08 -132.35 17516.9789
139278.333
1 ALFA COEFICIENTE DE SUAVIZAMIENTO
2 PROMEDIO DATOS 451.78
3 MODELO MATEMATICO 𝒀=𝑿𝒊∗∝+𝑿_(𝒊−𝟏)∗(𝟏−∝)
𝑌2011=180,14∗0,89+451,78∗(1−0,89)
MINIMOS CUADRADOS
x y
k AÑO DEMANDA XY X^2 Y
1 2010 180.14 180.14 1 68.48
2 2011 208.24 416.47 4 138.17
3 2012 240.72 722.17 9 207.86
4 2013 278.27 1113.10 16 277.55
5 2014 321.69 1608.43 25 347.25
6 2015 371.87 2231.21 36 416.94
7 2016 429.88 3009.16 49 486.63
8 2017 496.94 3975.53 64 556.32
9 2018 574.46 5170.18 81 626.01
10 2019 664.08 6640.81 100 695.71
11 2020 767.68 8444.45 121 765.40
n= 12 2021 887.44 10649.22 144 835.09
sumatoria = 78 24186 5421.41 44160.88 650
1 UTILIZAR MODELOS CALCULAR DATOS
𝒀=𝒂+𝒃(𝒌)
𝒃=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝒀−∑▒𝑿
2 ∑▒𝒀)/(𝒏∑▒𝑿^𝟐 −
b 69.69 〖 (𝑿) 〗^𝟐 )
a -1.22
𝐚=𝒀/𝒏−𝒃 𝑿/𝒏
3 MODELO MATEMATICO 𝑌=−1,22+69,69(𝑘)
REALIZAR EL PRONOSTICO CON MINIMOS CUADRADOS Y HALLAR EL ERROR
MINIMOS CUADRADOS
x y
k AÑO DEMANDA XY X^2 Y
1 2010 5414.26 5414.26 1 168.55
2 2011 4060.70 8121.39 4 455.65
3 2012 3045.52 9136.56 9 742.74
4 2013 2284.14 9136.56 16 1029.84
5 2014 1713.11 8565.53 25 1316.94
6 2015 1284.83 7708.98 36 1604.04
7 2016 963.62 6745.35 49 1891.13
8 2017 722.72 5781.73 64 2178.23
9 2018 542.04 4878.34 81 2465.33
10 2019 406.53 4065.28 100 2752.43
11 2020 304.90 3353.86 121 3039.52
n= 12 2021 228.67 2744.06 144 3326.62
sumatoria = 78 24186 20971.02 75651.90 650
𝑌=𝑎+𝑏(𝑘)
1 UTILIZAR MODELOS CALCULAR DATOS
2 𝒃=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝟎𝒀−∑▒𝑿 ∑▒𝒀
b 287.10
a -118.55
𝐚=𝒀/𝒏−𝒃 𝑿/𝒏
3 MODELO MATEMATICO 𝑌=−𝟏𝟏𝟖,𝟓𝟓+𝟐𝟖𝟕,𝟏𝟎(𝑘)
UBIETA MARTINEZ
AL Y MINIMOS CUADRADOS CON ALFA = 0,2 Y 0,89 HALLAR EL ERROR
1 VERIFICAR DATOS SEAN PARES
2 PROMEDIO X 451.78
Promedio Posición
3 DOS CONJUNTOS PARES X1 266.82 3.5
X2 636.75 9.5
4 TENDENCIA 𝑻=(𝑿𝟐−𝑿𝟏)/ 𝑻=(𝟔𝟑𝟔,𝟕𝟓−𝟐𝟔𝟔,𝟖𝟐)/(𝟗,𝟓−𝟑,𝟓)
(𝑷𝟐−𝑷𝟏)
5 MODELO MATEMATICO
𝑌=𝑋±𝑇(𝑘)
Y=a+b(x)
𝑌=451,78±61,65(𝑘)
GRAFICO
1000.00
900.00
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
DEMANDA Y
0<α<1 0.2
𝐘=𝐗𝐢∗∝+𝐗_(𝐢−𝟏)∗(𝟏−∝)
451,78∗(1−0,2)
GRAFICO
1000.00
900.00
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
DEMANDA Y
0<α<1 0.89
𝒀=𝑿𝒊∗∝+𝑿_(𝒊−𝟏)∗(𝟏−∝)
80,14∗0,89+451,78∗(1−0,89)
(Y-y) (Y-y)^2 ERROR SD
-111.66 12468.10 GRAFICO
1000.00
900.00
800.00
GRAFICO
-70.07 4909.73 1000.00
-32.86 1079.91 900.00
-0.72 0.52 800.00
25.56 653.28 700.00
45.07 2031.20 600.00
53.4571481
56.75 3220.53 500.00
59.38 3526.08 400.00
51.55 2657.44 300.00
31.63 1000.23 200.00
-2.28 5.19 100.00
-52.34 2739.80 0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
34292.00
DEMANDA Y
=𝒂+𝒃(𝒌)
𝒃=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝒀−∑▒𝑿
∑▒𝒀)/(𝒏∑▒𝑿^𝟐 − "Σ"
〖 (𝑿) 〗^𝟐 )
𝒏−𝒃 𝑿/𝒏
69(𝑘)
EL ERROR
(Y-y) (Y-y)^2 ERROR SD GRAFICO
-5245.71 ### 6000.00
-3605.05 ###
-2302.78 5302783.14 5000.00
-1254.30 1573267.05
-396.17 156948.03 4000.00
319.21 101893.29
2531.55634 3000.00
927.51 860278.76
1455.52 2118524.37 2000.00
1923.29 3699051.35
2345.90 5503240.55 1000.00
2734.63 7478191.37
3097.95 9597292.51 0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
DEMANDA Y
1000.00
0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
###
DEMANDA Y
𝑌=𝑎+𝑏(𝑘)
𝒃=(𝒏∑▒𝑿𝟎𝒀−∑▒𝑿 ∑▒𝒀))/(𝒏∑▒𝑿^𝟐 −"Σ" 〖 (𝑿) 〗^𝟐 )
−𝒃 𝑿/𝒏
𝟐𝟖𝟕,𝟏𝟎(𝑘)
P. FOCAL
ENCIMA +
7.5
DEBAJO -
GRAFICO
1000.00
=
𝟔𝟔,𝟖𝟐)/(𝟗,𝟓−𝟑,𝟓) 61.65
900.00
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
DEMANDA Y
2018 2020 2022
2018 2020 2022
2018 2020 2022
