8.

9
Probabilidad rm m*p m-prom. (m-prom.)^2
0.3 15% 0.045 2% 0.000225
0.4 9% 0.036 -4% 0.002025
0.3 18% 0.054 5% 0.002025
0.135
13.50%

Probabilidad rx x*p x-prom. (x-prom.)^2

0.3 20% 0.06 8.40% 0.007056
0.4 5% 0.02 -6.60% 0.004356
0.3 12% 0.036 0.40% 0.000016
0.116
11.60%

8.1
Inversion Rendimiento
Probabilidad x*p x-prom. (x-prom.)^2
esperada sobre cantidad r
ABC 10% 30% 0.03 11.00% 0.0121
EFG 50% 16% 0.08 -3.00% 0.0009
QRP 40% 20% 0.08 1.00% 0.0001
100,000.00 0.19
19.00%
invertidos
10,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00

8.11
Probabilidad rx m*p x-prom. (x-prom.)^2
0.1 -10% -0.01 -22% 0.0484
0.2 2% 0.004 -10% 0.01
0.4 12% 0.048 0% 0
0.2 20% 0.04 8% 0.0064
0.1 38% 0.038 26% 0.0676
0.12
12.00%
Probabilidad ry y*p y-prom. (y-prom.)^2
0.1 -35% -0.035 -49.00% 0.2401
0.2 0% 0 -14.00% 0.0196
0.4 20% 0.08 6.00% 0.0036
0.2 25% 0.05 11.00% 0.0121
0.1 45% 0.045 31.00% 0.0961
0.14
14.00%
(m-prom.)^2*(P) rx x*p Rendimiento= suma(m*p)
6.75E-05 20% 0.06 Riesgo=raiz((m-promedio)^2*(p))
0.00081 5% 0.02 Coificiente variacion=(Riesgo/prom. Rend.)*100
0.0006075 12% 0.036
0.001485 0.116
0.038535697736 CV 11.60%
3.854% 28.5%
(x-prom.)^2*(P)
0.0021168
0.0017424
4.8E-06
0.003864
0.0621610810717 CV
6.216% 53.6%

(x-prom.)^2*(P)

0.00121
0.00045
4E-05
0.0017
0.0412310562562 CV
4.123% 21.7%

(x-prom.)^2*(P) Rendimiento= suma(m*p)

0.00484 Riesgo=raiz((m-promedio)^2*(p))
0.002
0
0.00128
0.00676 Coificiente variacion=(Riesgo/prom. Rend.)*100
0.01488 0
0.1219836054558 CV 0.00%
 12.198% 101.7%
(y-prom.)^2*(P)
0.02401
0.00392
0.00144
0.00242
0.00961
0.0414
0.2034698994938 CV
20.347% 145.3%
Costo de la instalación
Costo edificio
Couta anuales cobrada
Costo anuales mantenimiento
vida de servicio
Tasa de interes

Altenativa
Diseño A
Diseño B
Diseño C
La altenativa B es la mas factibles
Diseño A Diseño B Diseño C
240 180.00 200.00
2200 700.00 1,400.00
830 750.00 600.00
410 360.00 310.00
30 30.00 30.00
10%

B C I C' BC(10%) B'C(10%) VA(i)

7,824.34 6,305.03 $2,812.73 $3,492.31 1.24 1.54 1,519.30
7,070.19 4,273.69 $1,207.27 $3,066.42 1.65 3.32 2,796.50
5,656.15 4,522.34 $1,881.82 $2,640.53 1.25 1.60 1,133.81
 Diseño A Diseño B
n
B C An B C An
0 - 2,440.00 (2,440.00) - 880.00 (880.00)
1 754.55 372.73 381.82 681.82 327.27 354.55
2 685.95 338.84 347.11 619.83 297.52 322.31
3 623.59 308.04 315.55 563.49 270.47 293.01
4 566.90 280.04 286.87 512.26 245.88 266.38
5 515.36 254.58 260.79 465.69 223.53 242.16
6 468.51 231.43 237.08 423.36 203.21 220.14
7 425.92 210.39 215.53 384.87 184.74 200.13
8 387.20 191.27 195.93 349.88 167.94 181.94
9 352.00 173.88 178.12 318.07 152.68 165.40
10 320.00 158.07 161.93 289.16 138.80 150.36
11 290.91 143.70 147.21 262.87 126.18 136.69
12 264.46 130.64 133.82 238.97 114.71 124.27
13 240.42 118.76 121.66 217.25 104.28 112.97
14 218.56 107.97 110.60 197.50 94.80 102.70
15 198.70 98.15 100.54 179.54 86.18 93.36
16 180.63 89.23 91.40 163.22 78.35 84.88
17 164.21 81.12 83.09 148.38 71.22 77.16
18 149.28 73.74 75.54 134.89 64.75 70.14
19 135.71 67.04 68.67 122.63 58.86 63.77
20 123.37 60.94 62.43 111.48 53.51 57.97
21 112.16 55.40 56.75 101.35 48.65 52.70
22 101.96 50.37 51.60 92.13 44.22 47.91
23 92.69 45.79 46.90 83.76 40.20 43.55
24 84.27 41.63 42.64 76.14 36.55 39.59
25 76.61 37.84 38.76 69.22 33.23 36.00
26 69.64 34.40 35.24 62.93 30.21 32.72
27 63.31 31.27 32.04 57.21 27.46 29.75
28 57.55 28.43 29.12 52.01 24.96 27.04
29 52.32 25.85 26.48 47.28 22.69 24.59
30 47.57 23.50 24.07 42.98 20.63 22.35
7,824.34 6,305.03 1,519.30 7,070.19 4,273.69 2,796.50
Diseño C
B C An
- 1,600.00 (1,600.00)
545.45 281.82 263.64
495.87 256.20 239.67
450.79 232.91 217.88
409.81 211.73 198.07
372.55 192.49 180.07
338.68 174.99 163.70
307.89 159.08 148.82
279.90 144.62 135.29
254.46 131.47 122.99
231.33 119.52 111.81
210.30 108.65 101.64
191.18 98.78 92.40
173.80 89.80 84.00
158.00 81.63 76.37
143.64 74.21 69.42
130.58 67.47 63.11
118.71 61.33 57.37
107.92 55.76 52.16
98.10 50.69 47.42
89.19 46.08 43.11
81.08 41.89 39.19
73.71 38.08 35.63
67.01 34.62 32.39
60.92 31.47 29.44
55.38 28.61 26.77
50.34 26.01 24.33
45.77 23.65 22.12
41.61 21.50 20.11
37.82 19.54 18.28
34.39 17.77 16.62
5,656.15 4,522.34 1,133.81
Probabilidad
0.2
0.4
0.4

Probabilidad
0.3
0.4
0.3

contrato A
100,000.00 67%
50,000.00 33%
0 0%
150,000.00
 rA A*p A-prom. (A-prom.)^2 (A-prom.)^2*(P)
67% 0.13333333 40% 0.16 0.032
33% 0.13333333 7% 0.0044444444 0.00177777777778
0% 0 -27% 0.0711111111 0.02844444444444
0.26666667 0.06222222222222
26.67% 0.24944382578493 CV
24.944% 93.5%
rB B*p B-prom. (B-prom.)^2 (B-prom.)^2*(P)
27% 0.08 18.00% 0.0324 0.00972
7% 0.02666667 -2.00% 0.0004 0.00016
-7% -0.02 -15.33% 0.0235111111 0.00705333333333
0.08666667 0.01693333333333
8.67% 0.13012814197295 CV
13.013% 150.1%
contrato B
40,000.00 27%
10,000.00 7%
(10,000.00) -7%
40,000.00
 Proyecto
B D
A
B
C
D
E
A E F

Grupo
Grupo

C F

Inversion
Altenativa Proyecto VA(10%)
Inicial
1 - $0.00 $0.00
2 A -100 55
3 E -150 60
4 B -200 63
5 D -300 70
6 AB -300 118
7 AF -350 130
8 DE -450 130
9 BF -450 138
10 AC -500 150
11 DF -550 145
12 ABF -550 193
13 DEF -700 205
14 ACF -750 225
Inversion Inicial VA(10%)
100 55
200 63
400 95
300 70
150 60
250 75

A,B,D,AB,DE,AC
F
 Muchamente exclusivo
Altenativa (A,E) (B,D)

2 (1,0) (0,0)
3 (0,1) (0,0)
4 (0,0) (1,0)
5 (0,0) (0,1)
6 (1,0) (1,0)
7 (0,1) (1,0)
8 (1,0) (0,1)
9 (0,1) (0,1)
1 (0,0) (0,0)