International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2018
This study investigates how stock market prices react to oil prices and money supply shocks in Tu... more This study investigates how stock market prices react to oil prices and money supply shocks in Turkey using a nonlinear ARDL approach. We establish the time series properties of the data using both conventional linear unit root tests and the procedure advanced by Zivot-Andrews (1992) to consider the possible existence of endogenous break in the series. Empirical evidence revealed asymmetric cointegration through Wald statistics of Pesaran and Banerjee. Findings suggest asymmetric responses of Turkish stock market prices to oil prices and money supply shocks, confirming the importance of non-linearity in macro-finance variables. Namely, in the long-run, we find a significant negative relation between oil prices and stock market prices. Meanwhile, stock market prices react positively to negative (positive) shocks in money supply. The obtained evidence of the asymmetric behaviors of stock prices should be taken into account by stock market participants when dealing with their portfolio...
This study examines environmental convergence in ecological footprint and its sub-components in a... more This study examines environmental convergence in ecological footprint and its sub-components in a region subjected to rapid degradation of environmental conditions and, where environmental conservation significantly remains unpopular in both government policy priorities and academic literature. This is expected to contribute to policy-shaping in the region in terms of sustainable development goals and global climate protocols. To this end, the study employs a sophisticated methodological approach (log t regression) that accounts for slope heterogeneity using a pool of inclusive environmental parameters to test convergence among different subcomponents. Results show that ecological footprint and its sub-components do not converge as a whole and several clubs are determined for each sub-component except forest-land and built-up-land footprints. Given the importance of achieving sustainable development goals and struggling with environmental threats collectively, this study highlights the importance of differentiated liabilities for countries.
Elektrik enerji girdisinin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve endüstriyel kalkınma içinönemi sıklı... more Elektrik enerji girdisinin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve endüstriyel kalkınma içinönemi sıklıkla vurgulanmaktadır. Endüstriyel kalkınma ve yüksek yaşam standartları isteğielektrik talebini artırmaktadır. Literatürde, elektrik tüketimi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisisıklıkla incelenmiş olsa da ilişkinin yönü konusunda farklı görüşler öne sürülmüştür. Buçalışmada, 1980-2011 dönemi için OECD üyesi G-11 ülkeleri örneğinde, elektrik tüketimi ileekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Cobb-Douglass üretim fonksiyonu yardımıyla, sermayebirikimi ve işgücü değişkenleri de kullanılarak panel eşbütünleşme yardımıyla test edilmiştir.Nedenselliğin yönünü tespit etmek için Panel Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirikbulgulara göre; elektrik tüketimi, sermaye birikimi ve işgücü değişkenlerinin ekonomikbüyümeyi teorik beklentilerimizle uyumlu olarak pozitif yönde etkilediği görülmüştür.Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ise, uzun dönemde elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyümearasında çift yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştirThe importance of electrical energy input for sustainable economic growth and industrialdevelopment is often highlighted. The desire for industrial development and high livingstandards has increased the demand for electricity. Although the relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic growth has been often examined, different views havebeen argued about the direction of this relationship. In this study, in the case of G11 countriesof OECD during the period 1980-2011, the relationship between electricity consumption andeconomic growth through Cobb-Douglass production function and the relationship betweencapital accumulation and labor force variables through panel co-integration were tested. PanelGranger causality test was applied to determining the direction of the causality. Accordingto empirical findings, the positive impact of electricity consumption, capital accumulationand labor force on economic growth were observed in accordance with our theoreticalexpectations. Morever, the results of causality test in the long-run reveal that there is a bidirectionalcausality relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth.</p
The purpose of this study is to investigate the twin deficit problem for the Turkisheconomy using... more The purpose of this study is to investigate the twin deficit problem for the Turkisheconomy using bounds testing approach known as ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag)to cointegration method and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality test. The studycovers the annual data from 1974 to 2010. The cointegration test results suggest that thevariables are moving together in the long run. The positive value on the budget deficitcoefficient implies that Turkey has a twin deficit problem. The presence of twin deficit hasalso been supported by the Toda-Yamamota causality test results. As expected, the negativeand less than 1 investment coefficient indicates Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis holds.Further, it indicates that Turkey could not well-integrated into the international capitalmarkets with the model revealing that one fifth of the investments are financed throughforeign savings</p
Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2002
Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, merkez bankasına bağımsızlık kazandırılmasında birçok güçlük ortaya çı... more Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, merkez bankasına bağımsızlık kazandırılmasında birçok güçlük ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bunlar; GSYİH'ya göre finansal sistemin oldukça küçük olması, yüksek enflasyon oranları, bankacılık sisteminin zayıflığı, yüksek mali (fiskal) hakimiyet derecesi ve politik istikrarsızlıktır. Bu faktörler ortadan kaldırılmadıkça ve liberalizasyon ve özelleştirme gibi etkin politik reformlar uygulanmadıkça, merkez bankasına bağımsızlık kazandırılmasının istenilen faydaları sağlamayabileceği ileri sürülmektedir.
Environmental changes impact agricultural activity, including poultry production. These changes h... more Environmental changes impact agricultural activity, including poultry production. These changes have raised serious worries that will severely impact poultry health and productivity due to the current climate change. Poultry production is the most rapidly expanding agricultural industry. It is generally categorized into meat and egg products (Ren et al 2020). Based on FAO's reports, worldwide meat demand is expected to rise by 40% by 2030, compared to average 2005-2007 levels, reaching over 400 million tonnes, to meet the world's growing population and increased meat consumption. According to recent OECD-FAO statistics, global meat output (poultry, beef, sheep, among others) would increase by approximately 35% by 2030, with demand for poultry meat increasing by 50%, the majority coming from developing countries. Poultry production can be accelerated to understand better appropriate circumstances for avian behavior, health, and welfare. Consumer awareness of avian health and welfare has grown in recent years, and as a result, consideration for higher-quality meat production has increased. Concerns about animal welfare continue to be an interesting issue for researchers, breeders, and animal rights organizations. On the other hand, breeders must adopt innovative technologies that can help them to increase production at a lower cost and with fewer negative environmental consequences to meet that demand. Most of these technologies aim to improve traditional inputs, including lighting, density, and feeding. Determining the ideal environmental conditions for animals, in light of current environmental changes, is a difficult challenge for researchers and breeders. For animals to express their maximum genetic potential, they must be exposed to ideal environmental conditions. Recommendations for optimal environmental factors (light, temperature, humidity, ventilation, among others) are critical to increasing profitability and decreasing physiological stress in birds. When investigating the ideal environmental conditions for better poultry rearing, we must consider dietary, density, and lighting factors. Lighting, density, and feeding all have separate and interactive effects on bird's performance (Figure 1). However, the optimal light quality and quantity for poultry farming, as well as density and feeding levels, particularly for chickens, are still a source of considerable debate among researchers and breeders. Thus, this review presents a comprehensive overview of current practical strategies for improving poultry behavior, health, and production through lighting, density, and feeding factors.
The emergence of inflation targeting over the !ast ten years has been one of the important develo... more The emergence of inflation targeting over the !ast ten years has been one of the important developments in the approach of central bank to the conduct of monetary policy. A number of industrial countries and emerging economies adopted inflation targeting as response to the difficulties they had encountered in conducting their monetary policy using an exchange rate peg or some monetary aggregate as the main intermadiate target. This study outlines some priorities of inflation targeting regime. The experiece of inflation targeting suggestes that this policy requries a strong fiscal position; macroeconomic stability; central bank instrument independence; a well knowledge for transmission mechanism between monetary policy and inflation; and transparency of monetary policy to develop accountability and credibility of central bank. Developing countries have more specific problems to design and implement inflation targeting than industrial countries. Difficulties that are arised from are...
Empirical investigations examining the relationship between budget deficits, monetary growth and ... more Empirical investigations examining the relationship between budget deficits, monetary growth and inflation have not reached a consensus on the possible relationship between deficits, monetary growth and the rate of inflation. But the major outcome from the empirical studies indicated strong evidence that a budget deficit financed through monetisation and a rising money supply could lead to inflation. The inflationary effect of budget deficits depends on the means by which the deficit is financed and the impact of that on aggregate demand. In this study, budget deficits, monetary growth and inflation relationships are investigated by utilizing the ARDL bounds testing approach for Turkey over the period 1992:1-2006:12. While empirical results show that there is a statistically positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation in both long and short run, no connection found between inflation and budget deficit in the both runs.
The study investigates cointegration and causality between primary energy consumption, CO emis- s... more The study investigates cointegration and causality between primary energy consumption, CO emis- sions, per capita gross domestic product and investments for Turkey using ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Johansen–Juselius cointegration framework for time span 1970-2008. Empirical results indicate that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables in Turkey. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from economic growth and primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emission both in the short-run. It has also been found that energy consumption, economic growth and investment are the long-run causes for CO emissions. An important policy implication is that energy consumption can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth and investment in Turkey. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasin...
Abstract We extend the topical literature on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing... more Abstract We extend the topical literature on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries subject to terms of trade cycles by applying the interactive fixed effects model that allow for unobserved time-varying heterogeneity in the impact of fundamentals. Based on a sample of 20 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1985 to 2017, our results support existing evidence about developing countries that fiscal policy is pro-cyclical in SSA countries. Whereas this pro-cyclicality is valid for government spending and fiscal balance, government revenue is slightly counter-cyclical. We also find that the pro-cyclicality of government expenditure and fiscal balance escalates during episodes of terms of trade booms. Our results make a strong case for the support of the pivotal role of Sovereign Wealth Funds, access to international financial markets, and flexible exchange rate regimes in reversing the pro-cyclical behavior of fiscal policy.
Abstract Motivated by the absence of conclusive guidance from the current literature, this study ... more Abstract Motivated by the absence of conclusive guidance from the current literature, this study revisits the effects of terms of trade shocks on real effective exchange rates (RER) across twenty-three primary commodity-exporting countries in Africa. To address the heterogeneity across primary commodities that may have plagued earlier studies, we employed a nonlinear panel ARDL approach to capture both the cross-section and time variations across primary commodities. Our analysis offers three main finding patterns. Firstly, we highlighted that the response of the RER to terms of trade shocks is asymmetric: the real appreciation is more pronounced for positive than negative shocks in terms of trade in the long-run while negative shocks in terms of trade cause the RER to depreciate in the short-run. Secondly, we found that the asymmetric responses of RER differ across commodity subgroups and seem to matter more for energy-exporting countries. Finally, we showed that energy and metal commodity-exporting subgroups are the most subject to real appreciation in the long run in comparison to countries exporting soft commodities such as agricultural and, food and beverage commodities. A fundamental policy corollary follows that there is a need to remediate the loss of the external competitiveness associated with real appreciation by coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to effectively absorb the huge additional foreign reserves and ensure an exchange rate equilibrium level, which will bring macroeconomic stability in primary commodity-exporting countries.
Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2019
Bu çalışmada Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen panel eşik değer analizi kullanılarak 27 OECD ... more Bu çalışmada Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen panel eşik değer analizi kullanılarak 27 OECD ülkesinde DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin doğrusal olup olmadığının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olmadığına ve DYY için tek eşik değer bulunduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu sonuç, DYY'nin ev sahibi ülkeye giriş düzeyine bağlı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi farklı şekillerde etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir. Analizde incelenen ülke grubu için DYY girişleri, 1,657 eşik değer seviyesinin üzerine çıktığında DYY'ler ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilemekte bu seviyenin altında ise bu etki tersine dönmektedir. Bu yüzden ev sahibi ülkelerde politika yapıcılar, DYY çekmek için serbest ticaret bölgeleri, ticaret rejimi, vergi teşvikleri, beşeri sermaye tabanı, finansal piyasa düzenlemeleri, finansal sistem ve altyapı kalitesi gibi koşulları iyileştirmeyi amaçlamalıdırlar.
Research in International Business and Finance, 2019
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2019
Son 30-40 yıl öncesinden itibaren büyük bir hızla gerçekleşmekte olan küreselleşme sürecinde, kür... more Son 30-40 yıl öncesinden itibaren büyük bir hızla gerçekleşmekte olan küreselleşme sürecinde, küreselleşmenin en önemli araçlarından biri olarak doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Klasik iktisat teorisine göre küreselleşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir dağılımı üzerinde olumlu etkileri söz konusudur. Literatürde bu konuda yapılan çalışmalarda farklı sonuçlar ortaya çıktığı görülmüştür. Bazı çalışmalarda olumlu etkiler ortaya çıkarken, bazı çalışmalarda olumsuz etkiler ortaya çıkmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra küreselleşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde etkisi olmadığı sonucuna ulaşan çalışmalar da mevcuttur. Çalışmanın temel amacı, 1980-2014 yılları arası yıllık veriler kullanılarak 16 gelişmekte olan ve 16 gelişmiş ülkede küreselleşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir eşitsizliğini olumsuz etkileyip etkilemediğini dinamik panel veri analizleriyle ortaya koymaktır. Elde edilen analiz sonuçları, küreselleşmenin gelir eşitsizliğini artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Farklı modellerle analiz yapıldığında ekonomik küreselleşme ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir eşitsizliğini azalttığı, sosyal ve politik küreselleşmenin, gelir eşitsizliğinin artma sebebi olduğu görülmüştür. Bu sonuçlara göre ülkelerin küreselleşmeden yarar sağlamak ve olumsuz etkilerinden korunmak için uygulayacakları iktisat politikaları önem kazanmaktadır.
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2018
This study investigates how stock market prices react to oil prices and money supply shocks in Tu... more This study investigates how stock market prices react to oil prices and money supply shocks in Turkey using a nonlinear ARDL approach. We establish the time series properties of the data using both conventional linear unit root tests and the procedure advanced by Zivot-Andrews (1992) to consider the possible existence of endogenous break in the series. Empirical evidence revealed asymmetric cointegration through Wald statistics of Pesaran and Banerjee. Findings suggest asymmetric responses of Turkish stock market prices to oil prices and money supply shocks, confirming the importance of non-linearity in macro-finance variables. Namely, in the long-run, we find a significant negative relation between oil prices and stock market prices. Meanwhile, stock market prices react positively to negative (positive) shocks in money supply. The obtained evidence of the asymmetric behaviors of stock prices should be taken into account by stock market participants when dealing with their portfolio...
This study examines environmental convergence in ecological footprint and its sub-components in a... more This study examines environmental convergence in ecological footprint and its sub-components in a region subjected to rapid degradation of environmental conditions and, where environmental conservation significantly remains unpopular in both government policy priorities and academic literature. This is expected to contribute to policy-shaping in the region in terms of sustainable development goals and global climate protocols. To this end, the study employs a sophisticated methodological approach (log t regression) that accounts for slope heterogeneity using a pool of inclusive environmental parameters to test convergence among different subcomponents. Results show that ecological footprint and its sub-components do not converge as a whole and several clubs are determined for each sub-component except forest-land and built-up-land footprints. Given the importance of achieving sustainable development goals and struggling with environmental threats collectively, this study highlights the importance of differentiated liabilities for countries.
Elektrik enerji girdisinin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve endüstriyel kalkınma içinönemi sıklı... more Elektrik enerji girdisinin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve endüstriyel kalkınma içinönemi sıklıkla vurgulanmaktadır. Endüstriyel kalkınma ve yüksek yaşam standartları isteğielektrik talebini artırmaktadır. Literatürde, elektrik tüketimi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisisıklıkla incelenmiş olsa da ilişkinin yönü konusunda farklı görüşler öne sürülmüştür. Buçalışmada, 1980-2011 dönemi için OECD üyesi G-11 ülkeleri örneğinde, elektrik tüketimi ileekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Cobb-Douglass üretim fonksiyonu yardımıyla, sermayebirikimi ve işgücü değişkenleri de kullanılarak panel eşbütünleşme yardımıyla test edilmiştir.Nedenselliğin yönünü tespit etmek için Panel Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirikbulgulara göre; elektrik tüketimi, sermaye birikimi ve işgücü değişkenlerinin ekonomikbüyümeyi teorik beklentilerimizle uyumlu olarak pozitif yönde etkilediği görülmüştür.Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ise, uzun dönemde elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyümearasında çift yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştirThe importance of electrical energy input for sustainable economic growth and industrialdevelopment is often highlighted. The desire for industrial development and high livingstandards has increased the demand for electricity. Although the relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic growth has been often examined, different views havebeen argued about the direction of this relationship. In this study, in the case of G11 countriesof OECD during the period 1980-2011, the relationship between electricity consumption andeconomic growth through Cobb-Douglass production function and the relationship betweencapital accumulation and labor force variables through panel co-integration were tested. PanelGranger causality test was applied to determining the direction of the causality. Accordingto empirical findings, the positive impact of electricity consumption, capital accumulationand labor force on economic growth were observed in accordance with our theoreticalexpectations. Morever, the results of causality test in the long-run reveal that there is a bidirectionalcausality relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth.</p
The purpose of this study is to investigate the twin deficit problem for the Turkisheconomy using... more The purpose of this study is to investigate the twin deficit problem for the Turkisheconomy using bounds testing approach known as ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag)to cointegration method and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality test. The studycovers the annual data from 1974 to 2010. The cointegration test results suggest that thevariables are moving together in the long run. The positive value on the budget deficitcoefficient implies that Turkey has a twin deficit problem. The presence of twin deficit hasalso been supported by the Toda-Yamamota causality test results. As expected, the negativeand less than 1 investment coefficient indicates Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis holds.Further, it indicates that Turkey could not well-integrated into the international capitalmarkets with the model revealing that one fifth of the investments are financed throughforeign savings</p
Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2002
Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, merkez bankasına bağımsızlık kazandırılmasında birçok güçlük ortaya çı... more Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, merkez bankasına bağımsızlık kazandırılmasında birçok güçlük ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bunlar; GSYİH'ya göre finansal sistemin oldukça küçük olması, yüksek enflasyon oranları, bankacılık sisteminin zayıflığı, yüksek mali (fiskal) hakimiyet derecesi ve politik istikrarsızlıktır. Bu faktörler ortadan kaldırılmadıkça ve liberalizasyon ve özelleştirme gibi etkin politik reformlar uygulanmadıkça, merkez bankasına bağımsızlık kazandırılmasının istenilen faydaları sağlamayabileceği ileri sürülmektedir.
Environmental changes impact agricultural activity, including poultry production. These changes h... more Environmental changes impact agricultural activity, including poultry production. These changes have raised serious worries that will severely impact poultry health and productivity due to the current climate change. Poultry production is the most rapidly expanding agricultural industry. It is generally categorized into meat and egg products (Ren et al 2020). Based on FAO's reports, worldwide meat demand is expected to rise by 40% by 2030, compared to average 2005-2007 levels, reaching over 400 million tonnes, to meet the world's growing population and increased meat consumption. According to recent OECD-FAO statistics, global meat output (poultry, beef, sheep, among others) would increase by approximately 35% by 2030, with demand for poultry meat increasing by 50%, the majority coming from developing countries. Poultry production can be accelerated to understand better appropriate circumstances for avian behavior, health, and welfare. Consumer awareness of avian health and welfare has grown in recent years, and as a result, consideration for higher-quality meat production has increased. Concerns about animal welfare continue to be an interesting issue for researchers, breeders, and animal rights organizations. On the other hand, breeders must adopt innovative technologies that can help them to increase production at a lower cost and with fewer negative environmental consequences to meet that demand. Most of these technologies aim to improve traditional inputs, including lighting, density, and feeding. Determining the ideal environmental conditions for animals, in light of current environmental changes, is a difficult challenge for researchers and breeders. For animals to express their maximum genetic potential, they must be exposed to ideal environmental conditions. Recommendations for optimal environmental factors (light, temperature, humidity, ventilation, among others) are critical to increasing profitability and decreasing physiological stress in birds. When investigating the ideal environmental conditions for better poultry rearing, we must consider dietary, density, and lighting factors. Lighting, density, and feeding all have separate and interactive effects on bird's performance (Figure 1). However, the optimal light quality and quantity for poultry farming, as well as density and feeding levels, particularly for chickens, are still a source of considerable debate among researchers and breeders. Thus, this review presents a comprehensive overview of current practical strategies for improving poultry behavior, health, and production through lighting, density, and feeding factors.
The emergence of inflation targeting over the !ast ten years has been one of the important develo... more The emergence of inflation targeting over the !ast ten years has been one of the important developments in the approach of central bank to the conduct of monetary policy. A number of industrial countries and emerging economies adopted inflation targeting as response to the difficulties they had encountered in conducting their monetary policy using an exchange rate peg or some monetary aggregate as the main intermadiate target. This study outlines some priorities of inflation targeting regime. The experiece of inflation targeting suggestes that this policy requries a strong fiscal position; macroeconomic stability; central bank instrument independence; a well knowledge for transmission mechanism between monetary policy and inflation; and transparency of monetary policy to develop accountability and credibility of central bank. Developing countries have more specific problems to design and implement inflation targeting than industrial countries. Difficulties that are arised from are...
Empirical investigations examining the relationship between budget deficits, monetary growth and ... more Empirical investigations examining the relationship between budget deficits, monetary growth and inflation have not reached a consensus on the possible relationship between deficits, monetary growth and the rate of inflation. But the major outcome from the empirical studies indicated strong evidence that a budget deficit financed through monetisation and a rising money supply could lead to inflation. The inflationary effect of budget deficits depends on the means by which the deficit is financed and the impact of that on aggregate demand. In this study, budget deficits, monetary growth and inflation relationships are investigated by utilizing the ARDL bounds testing approach for Turkey over the period 1992:1-2006:12. While empirical results show that there is a statistically positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation in both long and short run, no connection found between inflation and budget deficit in the both runs.
The study investigates cointegration and causality between primary energy consumption, CO emis- s... more The study investigates cointegration and causality between primary energy consumption, CO emis- sions, per capita gross domestic product and investments for Turkey using ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Johansen–Juselius cointegration framework for time span 1970-2008. Empirical results indicate that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables in Turkey. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from economic growth and primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emission both in the short-run. It has also been found that energy consumption, economic growth and investment are the long-run causes for CO emissions. An important policy implication is that energy consumption can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth and investment in Turkey. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasin...
Abstract We extend the topical literature on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing... more Abstract We extend the topical literature on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries subject to terms of trade cycles by applying the interactive fixed effects model that allow for unobserved time-varying heterogeneity in the impact of fundamentals. Based on a sample of 20 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1985 to 2017, our results support existing evidence about developing countries that fiscal policy is pro-cyclical in SSA countries. Whereas this pro-cyclicality is valid for government spending and fiscal balance, government revenue is slightly counter-cyclical. We also find that the pro-cyclicality of government expenditure and fiscal balance escalates during episodes of terms of trade booms. Our results make a strong case for the support of the pivotal role of Sovereign Wealth Funds, access to international financial markets, and flexible exchange rate regimes in reversing the pro-cyclical behavior of fiscal policy.
Abstract Motivated by the absence of conclusive guidance from the current literature, this study ... more Abstract Motivated by the absence of conclusive guidance from the current literature, this study revisits the effects of terms of trade shocks on real effective exchange rates (RER) across twenty-three primary commodity-exporting countries in Africa. To address the heterogeneity across primary commodities that may have plagued earlier studies, we employed a nonlinear panel ARDL approach to capture both the cross-section and time variations across primary commodities. Our analysis offers three main finding patterns. Firstly, we highlighted that the response of the RER to terms of trade shocks is asymmetric: the real appreciation is more pronounced for positive than negative shocks in terms of trade in the long-run while negative shocks in terms of trade cause the RER to depreciate in the short-run. Secondly, we found that the asymmetric responses of RER differ across commodity subgroups and seem to matter more for energy-exporting countries. Finally, we showed that energy and metal commodity-exporting subgroups are the most subject to real appreciation in the long run in comparison to countries exporting soft commodities such as agricultural and, food and beverage commodities. A fundamental policy corollary follows that there is a need to remediate the loss of the external competitiveness associated with real appreciation by coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to effectively absorb the huge additional foreign reserves and ensure an exchange rate equilibrium level, which will bring macroeconomic stability in primary commodity-exporting countries.
Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2019
Bu çalışmada Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen panel eşik değer analizi kullanılarak 27 OECD ... more Bu çalışmada Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen panel eşik değer analizi kullanılarak 27 OECD ülkesinde DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin doğrusal olup olmadığının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olmadığına ve DYY için tek eşik değer bulunduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu sonuç, DYY'nin ev sahibi ülkeye giriş düzeyine bağlı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi farklı şekillerde etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir. Analizde incelenen ülke grubu için DYY girişleri, 1,657 eşik değer seviyesinin üzerine çıktığında DYY'ler ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilemekte bu seviyenin altında ise bu etki tersine dönmektedir. Bu yüzden ev sahibi ülkelerde politika yapıcılar, DYY çekmek için serbest ticaret bölgeleri, ticaret rejimi, vergi teşvikleri, beşeri sermaye tabanı, finansal piyasa düzenlemeleri, finansal sistem ve altyapı kalitesi gibi koşulları iyileştirmeyi amaçlamalıdırlar.
Research in International Business and Finance, 2019
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2019
Son 30-40 yıl öncesinden itibaren büyük bir hızla gerçekleşmekte olan küreselleşme sürecinde, kür... more Son 30-40 yıl öncesinden itibaren büyük bir hızla gerçekleşmekte olan küreselleşme sürecinde, küreselleşmenin en önemli araçlarından biri olarak doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Klasik iktisat teorisine göre küreselleşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir dağılımı üzerinde olumlu etkileri söz konusudur. Literatürde bu konuda yapılan çalışmalarda farklı sonuçlar ortaya çıktığı görülmüştür. Bazı çalışmalarda olumlu etkiler ortaya çıkarken, bazı çalışmalarda olumsuz etkiler ortaya çıkmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra küreselleşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde etkisi olmadığı sonucuna ulaşan çalışmalar da mevcuttur. Çalışmanın temel amacı, 1980-2014 yılları arası yıllık veriler kullanılarak 16 gelişmekte olan ve 16 gelişmiş ülkede küreselleşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir eşitsizliğini olumsuz etkileyip etkilemediğini dinamik panel veri analizleriyle ortaya koymaktır. Elde edilen analiz sonuçları, küreselleşmenin gelir eşitsizliğini artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Farklı modellerle analiz yapıldığında ekonomik küreselleşme ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelir eşitsizliğini azalttığı, sosyal ve politik küreselleşmenin, gelir eşitsizliğinin artma sebebi olduğu görülmüştür. Bu sonuçlara göre ülkelerin küreselleşmeden yarar sağlamak ve olumsuz etkilerinden korunmak için uygulayacakları iktisat politikaları önem kazanmaktadır.
Özet Bu çalışma, 1989-2008 dönemi üçer aylık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de ihracat, kur değişkenl... more Özet Bu çalışma, 1989-2008 dönemi üçer aylık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de ihracat, kur değişkenliği, yurtdışı gelir, nispi ihracat fiyatı ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişi arasındaki ilişki Johansen eşbütünleşme yöntemi ve değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri hata düzeltme yöntemleriyle araştırılmıştır. Modelde döviz kuru değişkenliği, reel döviz kuru endeksinin değişim oranının standart sapmasının hareketli ortalaması olarak belirlenmiştir. VAR yöntemiyle elde edilen uzun dönem tahmin sonuçlarında ihracatla kur değişkenliği ve nispi ihracat fiyatı arasında negatif, doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişiyle pozitif ve anlamlı ilişki görülmüştür. Yurtdışı gelir değişkeninin işareti pozitif olsa da anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Nedensellik modellerinden sadece ihracat, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve yurtdışı gelir modellerinde uzun dönem nedenselliğe rastlanmış ve bu sonucun VAR yönteminde elde edilen bulguları desteklediği görülmüştür.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Kur Değişkenliği, İhracat, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Türkiye Econometric Analysis of Relationship Between Exchange Rate Variability and Export in Turkey: 1989-2008
Abstract
This paper aims to examine the long run and causal relationship between export, reel exchange rate variability, foreign income, relative export price and foreign direct investment inflows by using multivariate Johansen Cointegration technique and error correction model using quarterly data over the period 1989-2008. In this paper, exchange rate volatility is measured by moving average of the standard deviation of the real exchange rate. The major finding of the VAR model is that increases in the exchange rate variability and relative export price exert negative impacts on Turkish export in the long-run. In addition, the results also indicate that while there is a positive and significant relationship between FDI and export, no significant relationship is found between foreign income and export variable. The results of the Granger causality test show that there is a long run causality effect between export and other variables, which supports the VAR cointegration result. Keywords: Exchange rate variability, Export, Cointegration, Causality, Turkey.
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Papers by Halil ALTINTAŞ
Anahtar Kelimeler: Kur Değişkenliği, İhracat, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik,
Türkiye Econometric Analysis of Relationship Between Exchange Rate Variability and Export in Turkey: 1989-2008
Abstract
This paper aims to examine the long run and causal relationship between export, reel exchange rate variability, foreign income, relative export price and foreign direct investment inflows by using multivariate Johansen Cointegration technique and error correction model using quarterly data over the period 1989-2008. In this paper, exchange rate volatility is measured by moving average of the standard deviation of the real exchange rate. The major finding of the VAR model is that increases in the exchange rate variability and relative export price exert negative impacts on Turkish export in the long-run. In addition, the results also indicate that while there is a positive and significant relationship between FDI and export, no significant relationship is found between foreign income and export variable. The results of the Granger causality test show that there is a long run causality effect between export and other variables, which supports the VAR cointegration result. Keywords: Exchange rate variability, Export, Cointegration, Causality, Turkey.