Papers by Melania Michetti
Social Science Research Network, 2008
We evaluate the impact of fair trade (FT) affiliation on child labour within a sample of Chilean ... more We evaluate the impact of fair trade (FT) affiliation on child labour within a sample of Chilean honey producers with a retrospective panel data approach. From a theoretical point of view we argue that, FT generates a short run pure income effect together with a medium run productivity effect, on both adult and child wages. The direction of the impact is therefore uncertain and requires empirical testing. Our econometric findings document a significant impact of affiliation years on child schooling after controlling for endogeneity and heterogeneity between the treatment and control sample.
Science of The Total Environment, Jun 1, 2021
Understanding how natural and human-induced drivers will contribute to rising vulnerability and r... more Understanding how natural and human-induced drivers will contribute to rising vulnerability and risks in coastal areas requires a broader use of future projections capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics which drive changes in the different vulnerability dimensions, including the socio-demographic and economic spheres. To go beyond the traditional approaches for coastal vulnerability appraisal, a Multi-dimensional Coastal Vulnerability Index (MDim-CVI) - integrating a composite set of physical, environmental and socio-economic indicators - is proposed to rank Italian coastal provinces according to their relative vulnerability to extreme sea level scenarios, in 2050. Specifically, information on hazard-prone areas, potentially inundated by sea level rise and extreme water levels (under the RCP8.5 climate scenario) is combined with indicators of geomorphic vulnerability (e.g. elevation, distance from coastline, shoreline evolution trend) exposure, and adaptive capacity (e.g. sensible segments of the population, GDP, land use patterns). The methodology is applied to a reference timeframe, representing current climate and land use condition, and a future scenario for the year 2050, integrating both climate projections and data simulating potential evolution of the environmental and socio-economic systems. Results show that most vulnerable provinces are located in the North Adriatic, the Gargano area and other Southern parts of Italy, mostly due to the very high vulnerability scores reported by climate-related indicators (e.g. extreme sea level). The number of vulnerable provinces as well as the magnitude of vulnerability is expected to increase in the future due to the worsening of climate, environmental, and socio-economic conditions (e.g. land use variations and increase of the elderly population). These outcomes can timely inform integrated coastal zone management and support climate adaptation planning.
<p>Climate change is expected to raise the threats to human health. The effects of ... more <p>Climate change is expected to raise the threats to human health. The effects of temperatures on excess of mortality, for exposed populations, can be amplified by the simultaneous presence of air pollution.</p> <p>Using Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models with delayed effects, we assess the combined short-term impact of temperature and air pollution (PM10, O<sub>3</sub>) for Milan and Rome, the latter located at the center of the Mediterranean basin. Relative mortality risks (RRs) are estimated for the city population as a whole and the most vulnerable group of people (over the age of 85), for the historical decade 2004-2015 and for the future (2050), assuming climate and air pollution scenarios consistent with the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The daily mean temperature (T) and the daily apparent mean temperature (AT) exposure variables are used to proxy the effects of climate change; the MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hour average concentration) indicator for O<sub>3</sub> and the daily mean of PM10 characterize, instead, past and future air pollution effects. The minimum mortality temperature (T<sub>mm</sub>), which is city specific due to human adaptability to the local climate, is defined and inferred for both cities and age groups, together with exposure-response functions for each exposure variable.</p> <p>Results on past mortality show lower RRs for Rome along the whole year and a larger influence of temperature rather than air pollutant on short-term mortality. Specifically, attributable deaths are mainly associated with low temperature conditions (T<T<sub>mm</sub>) and increase when considering the older age group. As regard of air pollutants, their combined influence sum up to those of temperature with a seasonal connotation: while PM10 affects the risk values mainly in association with low temperatures, O<sub>3</sub> exerts its greatest effect especially in conjunction with high temperatures.</p> <p>RRs projections to 2050 confirm that Rome is the least affected city with a smaller fraction of total deaths attributable to climate change and air pollution. The effects of global warming is captured by a double-sided effect: a decrease in the cold-related mortality burden and a rise in the attributable mortality due to increasing temperatures. However, the latter effect partially offsets the relief in the health burden achieved from the former one. This substitution effect between cold- and warm-related mortality is more evident in the RCP8.5 scenario and for the 85+ age group.</p> <p>Concluding, the results suggest that a more rigorous and internationally coordinated climate action, implying more stringency in related policies, can lead to significant co-benefits: in addition to reducing the future health burden, containing the air pollution implications, and achieving climate objectives, health costs and loss of life can be also reduced. Indeed, when the effects of climate change and air pollution are contained with climate policy action (RCP2.6) the number of fatalities could decrease by 8 times in Rome and 1.4 in Milan, compared to historical values.</p>
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2018
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2017
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
The rapid development of climate policies and the need to understand the dynamics of climate chan... more The rapid development of climate policies and the need to understand the dynamics of climate change have highlighted and shaped the role of land use, land-use change and forestry dynamics (LULUCF), making it an issue of global importance. As a consequence, LULUCF has become a central topic in economic theory and in environmental sciences. The attention is focused on creating and expanding comprehensive global land-use datasets and on improving the modelling strategies allowing for an extensive representation of the land-use system. However, this is a relatively new research field and the development of this challenging process is likely to require greater effort in the years to come. By adopting a straightforward model classification, this paper provides a broad, but detailed, overview of the most representative methods and models developed to date. This summary will guide a following critical discussion on relevant methodological aspects related to the global modelling of land use and its changes. An additional focus is placed on the representation of forest-carbon sequestration within climate mitigation, which represents one of the most demanding issues from a modelling perspective.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role... more We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forest sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, while it does not lead to significant reductions in carbon leakage. We conclude that while European forests can reinforce other mitigation measures, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with emissions reduction targets. Additionally, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not offer considerable mitigation potential if compared with other forest biomes around the world. A much higher forest mitigation would require other regions to take part in a climate stabilization agreement, especially those where old-growth forests exist.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008
We evaluate the impact of fair trade (FT) affiliation on child labour within a sample of Chilean ... more We evaluate the impact of fair trade (FT) affiliation on child labour within a sample of Chilean honey producers with a retrospective panel data approach. From a theoretical point of view we argue that, FT generates a short run pure income effect together with a medium run productivity effect, on both adult and child wages. The direction of the impact is therefore uncertain and requires empirical testing. Our econometric findings document a significant impact of affiliation years on child schooling after controlling for endogeneity and heterogeneity between the treatment and control sample.
Economic interactions are often accused of being neutral, or even of generating adverse effects, ... more Economic interactions are often accused of being neutral, or even of generating adverse effects, not only on the social fabric but also on a factor (social capital) which is regarded as the foundation of both socioeconomic activity and prosperity. In this paper we document how a particular form of economic interaction (affiliation of marginalised producers to a first level association and to the fair trade import channel) has indeed positive effects on a specific type of social capital. Our findings on a sample of Kenyan farmers show that years of affiliation to Fair Trade significantly affect the participation in elections and the trust placed in trade unions, political parties and the government, net of the impact of other controls and after accounting for the selection bias effect. This implies that consumers buying fair trade products contribute to reinforce both social cohesion and the institutions in countries in which these variables are fundamental in creating room for manoe...
When fair trade generates social capital by creating room for manoeuvre for pro-poor policies
Economic interactions are often accused of being neutral, or even of generating adverse effects, ... more Economic interactions are often accused of being neutral, or even of generating adverse effects, not only on the social fabric but also on a factor (social capital) which is regarded as the foundation of both socioeconomic activity and prosperity. In this paper we document how a particular form of economic interaction (affiliation of marginalised producers to a first level association and to the fair trade import channel) has indeed positive effects on a specific type of social capital. Our findings on a sample of Kenyan farmers show that years of affiliation to Fair Trade significantly affect the participation in elections and the trust placed in trade unions, political parties and the government, net of the impact of other controls and after accounting for the selection bias effect. This implies that consumers buying fair trade products contribute to reinforce both social cohesion and the institutions in countries in which these variables are fundamental in creating room for manoeuvre for pro-poor (equity plus growth) policies.
fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affe... more fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world): www.fumeproject.eu Additionally, we thank the
Risk Management eJournal, 2014
The Value at risk (VaR) measure the risk of loss associated to financial assets. For a given time... more The Value at risk (VaR) measure the risk of loss associated to financial assets. For a given time period (normally ranging from 1 to 10 years) and a with a given probability confidence (generally equal to 95 or 99%); this measure represents the maximum loss the investor can suffer when holding financial assets. The time horizon used to calculate the VaR depends on the investment duration; the value at risk is used to compute the minimum capital requirements necessary to compensate losses resulting from market risk, according to the BIS banking regulation.
Since 2003, Europe has experienced several extreme summer heat waves. Such heat waves are project... more Since 2003, Europe has experienced several extreme summer heat waves. Such heat waves are projected to occur as often as every 2 years in the second half of the 21st century, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The impacts will be particularly strong in southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events have increased in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1960s, whereas different indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events are projected to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The number of very severe flood events in Europe has varied since 1980, but the economic losses have increased. It isnot currently possible to quantify the contribution due to increased heavy precipitation in parts of Europe compared with better reporting and land use changes. Observations of windstorm location, frequency and intensity have showed considerable variability across Europe during the 20th century. Models project an eastward extens...
We analyze the determinants of monthly and yearly variations in forest fire frequency and on the ... more We analyze the determinants of monthly and yearly variations in forest fire frequency and on the size of the area burnt (i.e., intensity) for Italian regions during 2000-2011. Panel data techniques allow capturing the dynamical aspects of fire danger due to changes in both climatic and socioeconomic conditions, after accounting for regional fixed effects to consider region-specific unobserved factors. Two different dependent variables (measuring frequency and intensity of fires) are alternatively employed and several ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate estimation outputs. Results highlight a significant regional heterogeneity across the Italian peninsula.Different regions are governed by dissimilar patterns. Weather variables significantly affect fire frequency and intensity with the expected sign and with persistent effects in time. High temperatures affect fire risk conditions more than precipitation in terms of magnitude. A seasonality path is clearer when looking at fire i...
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Papers by Melania Michetti