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It talking about Demography
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68 Ansichten17 SeitenSta 321 - 2024
It talking about Demography
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Akorede BashirCopyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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STA 321 Demography 2 units
Course Content
Definition of basic concepts. Demographic data: Types and sources. Life Table:
construction and application. Estimation of population parameters from defective
data. stable and quasi-stable population, population projection.
Basic Concept and Definitions
Demography: The statistical analysis of population data. The term Demography, was
coined trom two Greek words (demos meaning people, and graphy meaning to write or
describe). The Greek term means "writing about the people”. Its subject matter
includes:
(a) examination of the total size of population
(b) examination of population distribution ie, rural/urban
(©) examination of the structure of population i.e. age and sex composition
(q) examination of changes in population over time i.e. growth or decline
(e) examination of the causes and effects of population change.
Roots of demographic considerations started with Thomas Malthus in 1826 when human
population began to show exponential growth. He noted human populations were
increasing exponentially but food supply only increased in a linear fashion. He predicted
‘that human population would eventually be limited by resources.
Modern demography: The study of a population in its static and dynamic aspects
aspects include characteristics at a point in time such as composition by: Age
Race, Marital status and Economic characteristics. Dynamic aspects are: Fertility,
“Mortality, Nupialiy (marriage or weddings), Migration and Growth
allows us to predict actual or potential changes in population size. It start
‘such as
—The study of components of variation and change in
\ips between them, This is also called formal Population Size: Population size is the number of people who live in a specified
geographical area during a defined time. The size of the population is the total number of
people in a given geographical area such as a country, a state, a town or a community
Population Composition: This is the description of the quality of the population as
shown by the population pyramids (graphical presentation of age and sex composition of
the community) of three countries given bellow. The population pyramid is drawn as two
istograms, one for each sex, Then thd two histograms are rotated to settle on their side
and back to back, forming a pyramid with the percentage of age group on horizontal line
and age on vertical one, with males on the left side and females on right one. Shape of the
pyramid varies for different countries according to the age distribution of the
population,
Zero growthidecrea:
‘tay
Percent of population Rapid Growth Slow Growth Stable Growth Negative Growth
Population composition, also help us to know the four possible conditions of a
population which are as follows:
Births high + Deaths High = Stable population at low level.
« Births High + Deaths Low = A growing population with spreading age base.
# Births Low + Deaths High= A declining population
= Births Low + Deaths Low = Stable population but aging
Exercise
‘The population by age and sex of a village as enumerated in census i given in the table
below. Draw the age ~ sex pyramid and comment on the growth of the population.
: ‘No of both
| age | Mate | Femate | Male% | Female % _| sexes
0 25 27 _| 7.02247; 7.26 52
14 71 73_|_ 18.04] 19.62 144
[59 59 e2__| 167! 16.67 121
1014 | 45. 56 | 12.64 15.05 401
Ed 38__| 10.95) 10.22 7
27 ait 7.26 58
26 8.43 6.99 56.
6.74 5.91 46
06 51 7
3.76 24
2.15 12
zh 728 Live birth-Complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception,
irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which after such separation, breathes or shows
any other evidence of life such as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or
definite movement of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut
or the placenta is attached; each product of such a birth is considered live-born
Death—Permanent disappearance of all evidences of life at any time after live birth has
taken place (post-natal cessation of vital functions without capability of resuscitation)
Fetal Death—Death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a
product of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy
Marriage—Ceremony or process by which the legal relationship of husband and wife is
constituted
Divorce—Final legal dissolution of a marriage, that is, that separation of husband and
‘wife which confers on the parties the right to remarriage under civil, religious and/or
‘other provisions, according to the laws of each country
Ratio- Value obtained by dividing one quantity by another
ity—Death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of
cy, irrespective of the duration or site of the pregnancy, from any
‘ot aggravated by the pregnancy ot its management but not from
- a population whose total number and distribution by age do not
capacity to conceive
of the capacity to conceive Natural fertility—Fertility in the absence of deliberate parity-specific control
Reproductivity—Extent to which a group is replacing its own numbers by natural
processes
Gravidity—Number of pregnancies a woman has had
Parity—Number of children born alive to a woman
Birth interval—Time between successive live births
Pregnancy interval —Time between successive pregnancies of a woman
Mover—A person who changes residence
Migrant—A person who moves from one political area to another
Non-migrant—Non-movers and local movers
ic or spatial mobility involving a relatively permanent change in
usual residence between clearly defined political or statistical units; has dimensions of
time and space
In-migrant—A person who moves in a political area within the same country
iad
international migrant who enters the area from a place outside the
ts = Migration tumover
ts having a common origin and destination in a Type of demographic data
* Total population
Population by age, sex, race and ethnicity
Population by social characteristics such as education, marital status, place of
birth, language spoken at home, disability,
Population by economic characteristics such as income, employment status,
‘occupation, place of work, ete
«© Population by housing characteristics such as owned/rented, age of housing unit,
ete
Demographic data collection Method
+ Census (total population, population by demographic characteristics)
+ Demographic Survey (population distribution by characteristics)
= Vital registration (births, deaths, marriages, divorces, etc)
+ Population Register (continuous recording of demographic information)
= Administrative Records (income tax, internal revenue service)
Primary Demographic Data
Primary demographic data are most ‘commonly gathered or aggregated at the national,
level, A country may have a central statistical office, or there may be separate agencies
that take the census and compile the vital statistics.
Secondary Demographic data
Sevondary sources may be either official or unofficial and include a wide variety of
textbooks, yearbooks, periodical journals, research reports, gazetteers, and atlases.
Sources of Demographic Data le
Demographic data usually consist of data on age, occupation, religion, marital status, ete
‘The collection and analysis of demographic data is usually help in administrative,
‘ot research purposes. Demographic data are derived mainly from two sources,
international sources
c Data
as the total process of collecting, compiling,
disseminating demographic, economic, and social
/ or in a well-delineated part of a country at a
my be died A census conta
~Demographic data-(at least age and sex)
—Beonomie data (e.g., occupation and income)
Social (¢.g., education and housing)
100-percent component
Household relationship
Marital status
= origin
Social characteristics
—Ancestry
Occupation, industry, and class of worker
Place of work and journey to work
experience:
attachment to an area (you are registered where you
jon consists of all individuals who are resident in the Essential Keatures of the Census
ime of the essential features of an official national census are;
1. Sponsorship - an official national census is sponsored and carried out by the national
government, :
2. Defined Territory - the coverage of a census operation should relate to a precisely
defined territory, ea
3. Universality — the enumeration should include every member of the community within
the scope of the census without omfssion or duplication. :
4, Simultaneity - the total population enumerated should refer to one well defined point
of time.
5. Individual unity — a census implies that separate data are recorded for each individual
bby direct enumeration and not by registration. a
6. Compilation and publication — the compilation and publication of data by geographic
areas and by basic demographic variables is an integral part of a census.
Census Periodicity :
Census data are of greater value if censuses are taken at regular intervals. A series of
periodic censuses is of great importance in assessing trends - the past can be appraised.
the present accurately described, and the future estimated: The UN recommended that
every country develop a census programme which will provide that a population census
be taken every ten years.
Uses of census statistics
1. Planning for national development, i.e. educational, housing, manpower, health
u and e.t.c,
the adequate of the relationship between demographic and socio -
levels and trends in the standard of living of the population.
‘of parliamentary .
‘resources, statisties because they have to do with the individuals entry into, and departure out of
Vife, with the changes in the civil status of the individual in his/her life time.
In many developing counties, vital statistics are inadequate and defective to the extent
that they can hardly serve to measure demographic levels and trends. In Nigeria, the vital
registration is one of the major responsibilities of the National Population Commission of
Nigeria. :
Live Birth Registration: The United Nations recommends that the following be
collected at a minimum for live birth registration:
Date of occurrence
*Date of registration”
+Place of occurrence
*Type of birth/delivery
Attendance at birth
Data on infant:
~Sex
— Legitimacy status
—Weight at birth
Data on mother:
~ Age or date of birth
Number of previous children born alive
— Date of marriage or duration of marriage
Place of usual residence al
Death Registration: The United Nations recommends that the following be collected at
_ the minimum for death registration Divorce Registration: The United Nations recommends that the following be collected
at a minimum for marriage registration:
Date of occurrence, date of registratiod, place of occurrence, Courses, age at divorce
‘Previous marital status,.Place of usual residence
Statistical Uses of Vital Statistics :
1. Vital statistics provide additional data independent of census on measures of fertility
and mortality both for small and large areas. :
The sex ratio at birth computed from records of births provides a very important piece
of information for use in population projections.
. The data from vital registration gives information on the seasonality of births and
deaths. This has relevance for the planning of related services.
. The system is used as a check on census enumeration, particularly at the infant and
childtiood range where under - enumeration is common. ‘
Ina longitudinal ~ type survey about fertility and mortality, records of birth, death,
marriage and divorce can be very useful.
. They are useful in formulating population control programmes, and for evaluating the
effectiveness of such programmes.
ms
i
c. Sample survey ‘
‘Sample survey seeks to collect information only from a fraction of the population. It is
employed to arrive at estimates of demographic characteristics, size, distribution,
mortality, fertility and migration. In Nigeria, the efforts to generate reliable demographic
data has included the conduct of numerous national sample surveys such as-
1965/66 Demographic Sample Survey (DSS)
1981/82 Nigerian Fertility Survey (NFS)
1982 National Integrated Survey of Households (NISH)
1990, 1999, 2003, 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS).
‘demographic data is usually employed by the developed/industrialised
rn tain a regular update list of people resident in a country with details
marital status, place of residences, e.t.c. The population register
y maintained where education is reasonably high with an accurate
- public records, private records (such as records of Importance and quality of Demographic data
Plans for the provision of such nex i
ee Fsuch need as housing, food, education, health, e.t.e. depend on
plone eri noBraPhic statistics classified by age and sex. Most population
‘tility and mortality are either age - sex dependent or age-sex selective.
fea oe Diets wre sex specific, this is understandable
oo aps differences between the gender. It follows therefore that the
Henvever, ae aaa ltrate age-sex data in demographic analysis eannot be over emphasized
> age data tend to be more inaccurate than sex data.
Many demographic and socio economic attribute
Errors in Demographic Data
e accuracy of der 2 C
ao ee mographic statistics varies from one country to another. The
reicbimen most in the developing countries because among other problems of lack
the demaative machinery, individual ignorance about certain personal details. Errors in
eraphic data are mainly of two types, namely, coverage and content errors.
oo ares ne to persons being missed or counted more than once. They are
se ahosincas i ey of a given age may have been missed by the census officials or
ously included in it (i.e. counted twice). The first type is called under enumeration
at this age, while the second type represents over enumeration, the balance of the two
types of errors represents met under araersen at this age.
Content Errors - refers to instances where the characteristics of a person counted in a
census enumeration or in the registration of a vital event are incorrectly reported or
tabulated. The five principal sources of errors of content are:
1. The respondent - when he/she intentionally or unintentionally fail to give the
appropriate information required. A classic example is misstatement of age or the ease
where widows or divorces report themselves as single.
2. The enumerator - where he/she classifies a person incorrectly even though give the
correct information
3, The coding process - errors caused from the failure to allocate information on the
census or survey schedule to the proper code.
4. The editing process. iS :
5 Errors may arise at all stage of the compiling process or during tabulations.
Errors In Age Data
Demographic data are usu:
frequent than errors in sex
reporting of age, there are five m
1, Under reporting of children aged
2. A tendency to give an exact age 01
marriage.
3. Distinct
4, The reporting 0
E: heaping.
: aaa irregularities must be
could be used for any meaning
y classified by age and sex. Errors in age reporting are more
all
in census/survey
reporting. With reference to Niger
jor forms irregularities -
less than one year.
f some legal significance e.g. voting at election or
cent of age at very advanced ages.
ei e juals as being of an unknown age.
f some individuals as
corrected before demographic data
tected, adjusted or
ni vee Hence, the following methods of evaluating
iu demographic data or of detecting age irregularities.
Methods of Population Estimation
Icis assume in this method that population increases by constant number of people every
year, If, is the population of last census and P, is the population previous to it 10 years
and if we want to estimate Ps the population of the area 5 years after the last census,
then
P=P,+ (P= F,)x5
; 10
This will give the population of the year corresponding to the census day i.e, the day of
the census count, say I* March, But for calculation of the demographic rates like birth
rate and death rate ete, we need mid-year population, If the census count was made on 1”
March of the census year, the above formula becomes,
‘ ae 7:
pap + F)x55
. 10
Since the mid-year corresponds to 1** {ply which is 4 months or 1/3 year after 1" March.
The length of period from last census is 5+ years. The above formula can be generalized as
P=P, p Ue at
n
Where P; is the estimate of population t years after first census, P,. is the last census
population, Ps the first census population and n is the number of years intervening
between the two censuses.
¢. Differential Equation Method
Let N; be the population at time t and let No be the initial population t= 0. “Suppose the
jon of a community is known to increase at a rate proportional to the population
presently in the community. Then
as oN, oem,
dt dt Example: The student population in UDUS is known to increase at rate proportional to
the number of students presently studying in the university. If after two years, the
population has double and after three years the population is 9,000. Estimate the number
of students initially studying in the university.
Solution
Att=2, Nr=2No. That is,
2No = Noe
‘That is 2 = eM . Take natural logarithms to both sides we have
In
34657359
ae
N= Ned Meext
ALt= 3, N, = 9000. Then
9000 = Noe” #°*} = 2.8284 x No
b. Geometric Progression Method
It is assume in this method that population growth follows compound interest rate.
Let P, and P; be the census populations of initial and last year respectively n years apart
cand R the annual rate of increase. Then
Py= Pofl +R)"
Forn=10, Pio=Po(1 +R)", then R= Antitog {(log P, ~log P,)/10} -1
i as geometric rate. Given R we can determine how many year it would take
li to double itself.
number of years a population takes to double itself, Then
z log2
log(1+R) entries of immi;
sand E the number of exits of emigrants that took place
during the period, then the balancing equation is
P.=P,+B-D+I-E
Note that (P;
P,) is the total growth of the population and (B ~ D) is the natural
increase,
Exer
The population of a town on 1"
nuary 2014 was |
5. The following vital statistics
Were recorded in the town during the calendar year 2014:
Number of live births - 567
Nunber of deaths a ISL
Number of foetal deaths- 7
Number of immigrants - 260
Number of emigrants - 111
a. What is the population of the town on 1" January
b. What is the annual growth rate and rate of natural
¢. Calculate the yearly birth rate and death rate.
Demographic Measures
a, Absolute number ~ The size of population is given in absolute number, eg. the
population of a village in a given year is 5000. This figure is an absolute number.
b. Relative number — if we relate the absolute number of births of two villages to the
size of the population, we have relative number of births. This relative number is now
comparable between villages, In demographic analysis, ratios, rates, proportions and
percents are relative numbers.
Ratio — Ratio is a term used to express the size of one entity in relation to the size of the
another. The following are some of the ratios
ize of male population
Size of female population
For example, in a village with ado male and 2460 female, the sex ration is
1, sex ratio
number of population under \Syears
umber of population in 15~59 years
ratio =tmber of eldrly population aged 60 years
mumber of population in 15—S9years
io = youth dependency ratio + old dependency ratio group. If the proportion of a group is multiplied by 100, this gives the percent age of that
group.
Rates — Rates are relative numbers that enable us to compare the incidence of a
demographic event between population groups of various sizes. The following are
different rates used in demographic analysis:
Total number of birth in a given area durit
Crude birth rate =
Total number of people ving in the area inthe
Total number of death in a given area during a given year 1000,
Total number of people living in the area in the middle of the year
Crude death rate =
Measures of Fertility
‘otal births in a given area during a given year x1000
Sk baat rate = 1004 birth in a given area during o given peorst OO
Total people living in the area in the middle of the year
Total number of birth ina year in the areax1000
2. General fertilay rae =
fertility rate = TF women in the childbearing age in the people of the area in the year
Total number of birth in a year in the areax1000
3. Marital fertility rate =
en Total of married women of the area in the same year
Total live births occurred to the female in @ specifyied years x1000
Total women of the specified years
number of children aged 0 - 4 years%1000
number of women in aged 15 - 44 years
6. Total fertility rate (TF) = sum of 5x ASF of each age group
number of children ever born to the women aged 45 years and above x 1000
otal women aged 45 years and above
a umber of female births in the year
Tod ths in the year
Note that infants who die in less than 7 days are call early neonatal death while those that
die between | to 27 days are called neonatal death, Also those that die between 28 days to
11 months are called post neonatal death.
4, Age specific fertility rate( ASF) =
5. Child woman ratio=
To ad $.9 10-14 [510 2024 25.29 30-34 35.39 A044 450
a a a a numer live births x1000__ 80
Total population 1797
D, General fertility vate =< Umer of live birthe1000__ 80999. 201.5
. number of women in age 15-44 years 397
1. Crude birth rat
1000 = 44,5
3. ASF = No of live births in a group divided by number of women in the group
Age <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-28 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 454 Total
Female 39134159 115928073 49 az 105
‘No of live birth oS es 3
ASF 0.0978 0.3125 0.274 0.2859 0.1633 0.0714 1.1649
4. Chile woman ratio = number of children aged 0-4 years%1000 _ 335,
~ number of women in aged 15-44 years 397
5, Total fertility rate (TF) = 5x 1.1649 = 5.825 per woman
1000 = 844
Total women aged 45 years and above
umber of female births
. Gross reproduction rare = TF « Mamet OLMIS, =
. Total births in the year
“Measures of Mortality
setae no ee eee
Stee cont rae Total mid-s ‘estimate of the population of the area
__ umber of deaths aged under | year during a year1000
2. infant mortality rate = ber of live births that occurred in the year
= Total number of infant deaths under one week x1000
"number of live births during same year
Total death ina specfyied age group 1000
Cri alee meaiuelted
suber of children ever born othe women aged 45 years and above>1000 ‘otal number of infant deaths | to 27 days%1000
number of live births
10. neonatal mortality rate =
Example
‘The mid-year estimate of population y age and sex with the registered birth and deaths
during 1981 is given below. The record in the area shows that of the 97 deaths recorded,
there were 4 due to malaria, 2 deaths due to tuberculosis and 2 deaths due to maternal
condition, For the rest of the deaths the record causes were only symptomatic condition
like fever, diarrhea, back pain ete, The data also show that 4 infant die before seven days,
6 die between seven to 27 day, and 15 die between 28 days to 11 months.
Population Registered deaths
‘Age(yrs) [Male | Female | Total Male | Female Total
